29th JUNE2013-AS A SINGAPOREAN WHO IS IN THE STOCKMARKET FOR 10YEARS,I REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHERE TO HIDE MY FACE

SO MANY SINGAPOREANS ARE MILLIONAIRES=STOCKMARKET SAVVY????

 

Number of millionaires see a decline in wealth

By Emily Jane Fox @CNNMoneyJune 4, 2012: 11:43 AM ET

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When it comes to wealth, Singapore has the highest number of millionaires per capita.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The number of millionaires is on the decline in the United States, even as the number of wealthy individuals has increased worldwide.
Millionaire households in the United States decreased by 129,000 in 2011, according to a new study from the Boston Consulting Group. Globally, that figure grew by 175,000. The report defines these households as having over $1 million in cash, stock and other assets, excluding property, businesses and luxury goods.

 

Singapore has the highest proportion of millionaires in the world; 17% of all households in the Asian city-state have wealth of over $1 million. By comparison, 4.3% of households in the United States had wealth of over $1 million, which ranks it 7th in the world.
The United States also lagged when it came to the proportion of "ultra-high-net-worth" households, defined by the Boston Consulting Group as those with more than $100 million in wealth.
Switzerland topped the list with 11 in every 100,000 households qualifying as "ultra-high-net-worth," followed by Singapore with 10 in every 100,000 households.
The United States didn't make the top 15, the report said.
Across Asia-Pacific nations, excluding Japan, wealth increased by 10.7% to $23.7 trillion, while it declined by 0.9% to $38 trillion in North America.

0:00/1:33How to save up to be a millionaire

The consulting group attributes the shift to strong economic growth in Asia, while the United States grappled with a "near default on U.S. government debt, combined with the euro debt crisis" and "a downgrade of the nation's credit rating."
The group expects to see more of the mega-rich crop up across Asia in the near future.
"Wealth in the region is expected to continue to grow at a double-digit rate... reaching $40.1 trillion by the end of 2016, at which time it will have slightly overtaken Western and Eastern Europe combined."

First Published: June 1, 2012: 4:20 PM ET

 

YET WE SEE THIS----

 

Singapore blue-chip stocks made available for $100 monthly

By Peace Chiu | Yahoo! Finance Singapore – Wed, Jun 26, 2013 1:56 PM SGT

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  Reuters/Reuters - The logo of the Singapore Exchange (SGX) is pictured at its office in Singapore July 25, 2012. REUTERS/Tim Chong

OCBC Bank launched on Tuesday a regular investment plan that allows retail investors to purchase 19 blue-chip stocks for as little as S$100 a month.
The bank said the OCBC Blue Chip Investment Plan is targeted at young working adults who may find investing in equities out of reach given the amount of upfront cash needed, as well as busy professionals who have little time to monitor the performance of stocks.
As the purchase of one lot (1,000 shares) can cost up to a five-figure sum, the new plan gives investors an option to buy smaller number of shares with their chosen monthly investment amount, bank officials said during the press launch of the financial product.
Investors can use cash or funds from Central Provident Fund (CPF) or Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) accounts to invest in one or more stocks from a selection of 19 mainboard Straits Times Index (STI) stocks such as CapitaLand Limited, ComfortDelGro Corporate Limited and StarHub Ltd, and the STI Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
OCBC said it chose blue-chip stocks for the plan as they are nationally-known companies, with a long record of profit growth and dividend payment.
First-time investors also need not go through the hassle of opening securities trading and Central Depository (CDP) accounts as OCBC will buy the stocks on their behalf on a pre-determined date every month.
OCBC Bank head of consumer financial services (Singapore) and group premier banking, Dennis Tan, said the plan makes it “very simple and accessible for anyone who wishes to participate in blue chip stocks, in an affordable way.”
Chew Sutat, executive vice president at SGX, said that, contrary to popular belief, investing in equities is not all about trading and speculating, but also about saving and investing.
He added that the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market STI’s returns are attractive compared to that of other countries.
Chew also noted, “Retail investor participation in Singapore remains low at about 8 per cent compared to 24 per cent in Hong Kong and 17 per cent in Australia.”
SGX hopes to “increase the retail participation rate in Singapore in the next three years to 15 per cent," he added.
To educate the public on the importance of regular investing, OCBC Bank will also work jointly with SGX to organise public seminars and road shows to help raise awareness, starting in July 2013.


NOW YOU KNOW MAJORITY SINGAPOREANS' MILLIONS DO NOT COME FROM THE STOCKMARKET..I REALLY DO NOT KNOW WHERE TO HIDE MY FACE AS A SINGAPOREAN,AS I AM A SHARESLOVER.IN A COUNTRY WITH "CONTRA TRADING"--CAN ACTUALLY HOLD STOCKS WITHOUT CAPITAL FOR 5 WORKING DAYS BEFORE SELLING AWAY ON THE T+5th DAY,CAN ACTUALLY GET TROUNCED BY HONGKONG'S RETAIL PARTICIPATION BEING 24% COMPARED TO SINGAPORE'S 8%.BOTH ARE FINANCIAL HUBS.BOTH ARE CITY LIFESTYLES.BUT WHAT A FUCKING WIDE DIFFERENCE.I LOVE HONGKONG!

27th June 2013-PLEASE GET READY FOR A MASSIVE RALLY IN SHIPPING STOCKS

SHIPPING STOCKS WILL ONLY HAVE A HUGE RALLY WHEN USA MAIN INDEX AND CHINA MAIN INDEX RALLY AT THE SAME TIME.IF USA GOES UP BUT CHINA GOES DOWN,SHIPPING STOCKS WILL REMAIN FLAT.

BEFORE EVERY REAL CRISIS,THERE MUST BE EUPHORIA.THIS IS A FACT.NO CRISIS WILL START BEFORE STOCKMARKET SURGE.

IN 2006,SUBPRIME PROBLEMS STARTED IN USA WITH USA PROPERTY PRICES FALLING.BUT SP500 STILL CONTINUE TO GO UP TILL OCT2007,BECAUSE ALWAYS IN THE FINAL 1.5 TO 2YEARS OF RALLY,CHINA AND USA MUST PEAK NEAR HIGHS TOGETHER AT ROUGHLY SAME TIME.

TRADING SHIPPING STOCKS ARE VERY SIMPLE----HUGE SURGE OR FLAT.IN SHIPPING STOCKS DICTIONARY,THERE IS NOT SUCH THING AS MINOR FALL OR MINOR RISE.

THE WORST CASE IS SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DROPPING TO 1664 BY AUGUST 2013.THAT IS MY WORST CASE SCENARIO.EMBRACE YOURSELVES FOR THE FINALE 1.5 TO 2YEARS OF SOLID RALLY IN THE STOCK MARKETS BEFORE A REAL CRISIS FROM.....CHINA!!

FOR EXAMPLE NOL RALLY TALLIES WITH SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SURGE.SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FROM 1667 TO 3478 IS ABOUT DOUBLE AND SO IS NOL RALLY FROM 1.00 TO 2.40 IN 2011.

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TUMBLE TO NEAR 2K MEANS A POTENTIAL 3X RALLY TO 6K AND THIS WILL TIE IN WITH NOL RALLY TO S$3+

WHEN THE RATIOS TALLY,THEY TELL A FUTURISTIC STORY

21st june 2013-andy xie says he would no buy chinese property after 2006..HE ALSO SAID HE DOES NOT WANT TO WASTE TIME DEBATING WITH "RUBBISH" PEOPLE.HAHA SAME AS MY VIEWS.WHEN I BOUGHT COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN 2005,SAME AS ANDY XIE,WHERE ARE THE MAJORITY PROPERTY BULLS????

谢国忠：泡沫不意味着暴跌 房价5年内掉一半

2013年6月18日07:18　新京报　 我要参与(1862)

原标题：谢国忠：泡沫不意味着暴跌 房价5年内将掉一半

房地产圈从来不乏预言家和评论者，对于中国房地产价格走势的争论从未停歇，看涨者有之，唱空者亦有。在唱空中国房地产的专家学者中，谢国忠无疑是最耀眼之一。 6月2日，谢国忠参加同济大学MBA项目20周年庆典活动上表示，世界经济正处于有史以来最大的房地产泡沫中，而且中国的房地产泡沫尤为严重。他预计，中国的房地产泡沫将在数月内破裂，最长不会超过一年，这些都来源于致富欲望和超额货币。

不断唱衰，屡屡落空 2004年10月，谢国忠发表《有史以来的最大房地产泡沫将在近期破裂》一文，开启了近十年的“唱空中国楼市之旅”。“十年如一日”地坚持认为中国房地产存在“严重泡沫”，并于近两年不断给出房价跌幅。 但是，记者查阅公开资料发现，谢国忠近十年间的20余次“涉房”言论鲜有应验。官方公布的统计数据总是见涨，让他的言论在现实面前不堪一击。 “2012年中国楼市终将破灭”，这是谢国忠在2009年的预测。及至2010年，他先后8次表示“中国房地产已进入熊市，未来五年大城市房价跌一半”，其中他称“楼市泡沫破灭时，我会通知大家”。 谢国忠在2011年给出房价具体下跌幅度，“房价跌幅很快达到25%，未来两到三年会继续同样跌幅”。同时，他预测2012年是中国房地产的拐点。谢国忠在2012年曾先后预测中国房价“会在未来5年内跌50%”。 事实却是，2009年以来的中国楼市几乎不间断地持续疯长。国家统计局公布的数据显示，2009年全年70大中城市房价上涨1.5%。2010年的房价涨势更迅猛，全年月均最高值为12.8%，最低值为6.4%。2011年略微下降，2012年再次反弹。 近日，一则“谢国忠：中国房地产泡沫未来数月内破灭，最多不到一年”的消息大闹地产界，同时，也将这位“屡败屡战”的预言家再一次推上风口浪尖。

“从不理会别人的看法” 这位特立独行的经济学家，并不顾及网友的“拍砖”，更不以同仁们热血高亢的房地产论调作为指南。 “近年来，公众对我有误解。我总是在强调中国房地产存在泡沫，而泡沫并不意味着价格暴跌，相反，意味着‘炒一把’，但要及时抽身。”谢国忠日前接受新京报记者专访时表示，2012年是中国房地产的拐点，2013年房价不会报复性增长，未来只会逐年下降。 他仍然坚持认为，“中国的房地产高点再也回不去了，未来5年内会跌50%。但不是暴跌，而是逐年下跌一些。” 面对公众对他预测房价言论的质疑，他告诉新京报记者，“没有对与错，也没有唱多唱衰，这都是舆论给我们戴的帽子。” 谢国忠曾因成功预言1997年亚洲金融危机而名声大噪，也曾预测A股会在2008年从6000多点跌至2000点而备受关注，还于2009年预测世界在2012年遭遇经济危机。因为多年来唱空楼市的言论，被网友戏称为“空军一号”、“末日博士”。 “我做判断的依据是基于理性分析，并发现经济规律本身。”谢国忠称。 “我从不理会别人的看法，也从不辩论，没有必要”，谢国忠说。

“我错的时候我会承认” 我在2011年秋天写文章预测2012年是拐点，事实上我是正确的。 新京报：你近日预计中国房地产泡沫将在数个月内破裂，最长不会超过一年。做出判断的依据是什么？ 谢国忠：我没说过这番话，只是说中国房地产未来长期会下滑。它是在货币超发和其他力量共同作用下上涨的，而政府还要控制货币超发，防止人民币崩盘，所以，房地产长期会下滑。但是，房地产不会暴跌。 新京报：中国指数研究院6月发布数据显示，百城房价连续12个月环比上涨，你却说房价要下跌。 谢国忠：房价既不涨也不跌的理想状态，是政府永远的愿望。其实，像北京、上海许多核心地段的房价已经开始下跌，房子都卖不出去。 新京报：你从2004年开始预测中国房价走势，几乎全是预测房价下跌，却从没准确过。 谢国忠：我始终强调泡沫。2004年10月份的时候，我说的是上海房价会在2005年6月大幅下滑，没说全国。得出这一结论的原因是我看到在上海买房的以外国人为主，而当时美联储把美元利率提高了3%以上。房地产一般在大幅度加息的情况下就会暴跌。 实际上，在2005年5月，上海房地产价格见顶，至年底，房价下滑近一半。但是，官方统计时没有这个数据。 新京报：此后，上海以及全国房地产价格都在上涨，你说的泡沫在哪里？ 谢国忠：2007年年初，我曾说“上海房价要涨了”，这次是跟全国房价一起涨。政府控制着土地和银行，而卖地正是政府融资的重要渠道，加上人民币超发，房价肯定上涨。同时房地产本身具有投资价值，投机者不断抬高房价，像“击鼓传花”游戏，楼市的泡沫便越吹越大。 新京报：你觉得自己对中国房地产的预测，对的时候多，还是错的时候多？ 谢国忠：我错的时候我会承认，会写在文章里，解释自己什么时候错了，为什么错了。之前我原以为2013年是中国楼市的拐点，后来我在2011年的秋天写文章预测2012年是拐点，事实上我是正确的。

“我觉得没必要买房” (I DONT SEE A NEED TO BUY A HOUSE for investment purpose.)对泡沫正面的看法会去炒房，负面的看法，会以为房价会掉。 新京报：有报道称，你的一个同学在2004年读过你的“泡沫即将破裂”后，没有买房。之后房价一路上涨，后来这位同学见到你说“因为你，失去20%的收益”，是真的吗？ 谢国忠：他没有买房应该是对我的误解。我在2004年开始说中国房地产存在泡沫，但泡沫并不意味着房价会跌。他带着情感色彩去看这个泡沫，正面的看法会去炒房，负面的看法，会以为房价会掉。我当时预计上海房价2005年6月会跌，事实上当年的房价跌了很多。我自己在2006年初就买了房自住。(i bought a house in 2006 for self use after prices drop a lot) 新京报：泡沫意味着“炒一把”？ 谢国忠：最终你会明白，泡沫就是炒一把的概念。但你要知道，炒一把之后，在何时撤出来。 新京报：2006年之后，你又买房了吗？(AFTER 2006 DID YOU BUY ANY MORE HOUSES?) 谢国忠：没有。当时买房是自住用的。买房干吗呢，投资价值不高，流通性不高，投资股市更好。中国房子未来要赚钱很困难，因为人口开始下滑。炒房能赚钱的时候，就让你炒。等赚不了钱的时候，又会有空房税。 (AFTER 2006, I DID NOT BUY ANY MORE RESIDENTIAL HOUSES.BUY HOUSE FOR WHAT?INVESTING VALUE NOT HIGH,LIQUIDITY NOT HIGH,INVESTING IN STOCKMARKET BETTER.CHINA PROPERTY IN THE FUTURE HARD TO EARN MONEY AS CHINA POPULATION STARTS TO DWINDLE.THERE WILL ALSO BE EMPTY PROPERTIES TAX IN THE FUTURE.)新京报：你对现在观望的买房者有什么建议吗？ 谢国忠：我觉得没必要买房。如果是自住的话，目前租房从经济学的角度来讲，是最适合的一条路。 新京报：如果是投资的话，目前的时机合适吗？ 谢国忠：如果是投资的话，投资回报率高于5%才可以投。投资的时候，只有在市场大幅下跌的时候，才有投资价值。这种时候多是在出现危机、动乱、恐慌的时候，那才是购买的最佳时机。人这一辈子，创造财富只有这个手段。 “政府解决泡沫很容易” 房地产泡沫崩盘之后，资金分配更合理，别的地方用钱效率会更高。 新京报：政府有调控措施出台，你认为有利于击破泡沫吗？ 谢国忠：每次调控，落实执行都有一个延后。比如今年3月底出台的二手房征收20%个税，投机者一夜之间都离婚了。有了时间差，购房者可再炒一阵。 新京报：但是调控后确实有一段时期房价下跌了。 谢国忠：2008年房价跌了那么多，我都没说跌，因为这只是暂时的。市场的过程被利用了而已，这跟调控没关系。 新京报：跟什么有关系？ 谢国忠：政府不会让房价一直跌，也不会让房价一直涨。政府既要讲究政府内部的和谐，又要讲究政府与人民之间的和谐。这也是中国房地产泡沫与世界其他国家不同之处，其他国家主要是基于市场的力量，可以像股市那样涨跌甚至崩盘。 新京报：房地产是中国的支柱产业之一，如果价格崩盘的话，会对中国经济造成何种影响？ 谢国忠：我所强调的是房地产价格崩盘，而不是整个房地产行业崩盘。房子还会继续建，只是价格不同而已。如果房地产泡沫崩盘，对中国经济来说是好事，会明显提升经济效率。崩盘后，资金分配更合理，别的地方用钱效率会更高。 新京报：你之前屡次提起的房地产泡沫崩盘是指房地产价格崩盘？ 谢国忠：价格也不是一下子崩盘，会慢慢地往下掉。政府解决泡沫很容易，两件事情做一件就行：一个是央行要加息，中国的利息那么低，尤其是跟通胀相比；第二点，对空房征税。

“房价五年内掉一半” ((CHINA PROPERTIES 5 YEARS DROP 50%)这是政策的利益最大化和市场的力量进行博弈的结果。 新京报：2013年及以后的房价走势是？ 谢国忠：那种高点是回不去了。 新京报：房地产的高点是在哪一年？ 谢国忠：2011年上半年是高点。2009年开始连续大幅上涨，2011年年中达到最高值。 新京报：此后政府出台严厉调控措施打压房价，所以，2011年底，中国房价开始遭遇寒冬？ 谢国忠：对，政府常用行政手段调控。 新京报：你曾指出，投机者就像“冷水中的大闸蟹”，应该何时从房地产市场安全撤退？ 谢国忠：2012年是拐点，2011年中期的高点再也回不去了。最近的这股房地产热潮，是房地产开发商要营造房价不断“创新高”的氛围。事实上的交易量、价格都不像以前那么高了。 新京报：事实证明你是对的吗？ 谢国忠：至少到现在为止，我认为我是对的。 我当时也在文章中指出，2012年房价下跌之后会出现反弹。2012年下半年的房价确实下跌了，只是没有像香港房地产那样暴跌。尽管后来出现“反弹”，但这并不是楼市的春天又回来了。有人在2012年房价出现反弹的时候，就认为我说的不对。 新京报：去年12月底，你指出未来五年大城市的房价会跌50%，做出判断的依据是什么？ 谢国忠：房价五年之内掉一半是正常的。这不是崩盘，崩盘是指一下子就跌了那么多。这是政策的利益最大化和市场的力量进行博弈的结果。房价慢慢掉是因为政府有自身利益。如果是正常经济体的话，一年就可以掉50%。目前有些地方已经开始下跌，像浙江一些城市房价跌很多，温州就是。上海以前很多炒得很凶的地方现在也下跌了50%。 新京报：那么，到2017年，你会正视自己的预测结果吗？ 谢国忠：当然可以。预测结果的对与错，关键要看判断的理由是否合理，如果将来事实证明不正确，我会写文章做出解释。事实上，目前一些中小城市的房价下跌幅度接近50%了。

不知自己被戏称“空军一号” 我从不看别人对我的评价。实际上，预测没有对与错之分。 新京报：你多年来一直“唱空”房地产，可事实上总是不准，为什么？ 谢国忠：我不是唱空中国房地产，而是根据其特有的规律预测。就像2008年预测股市崩盘一样，不是因为我看衰中国股市，而是股市确实该下跌。 新京报：有人把你归为“唱空派”，称你为“空军一号”，认同吗？ 谢国忠：我都不知道这个称号，因为我从不看别人对我的评价。预测实际上没有对与错之分，也没有唱多和唱衰，这都是舆论给我们戴的帽子。 新京报：2006年从摩根士丹利辞职之后，你一直以“独立经济学家”的身份活跃在学界，你怎么看待“独立”？ 谢国忠：独立，即不依附于任何机构与单位。“学而优则仕”是中国学者的常态，所以，这类学者常常是主观的，通常只会支持由权力带来的观点，朝一边倒。 新京报：面临质疑时，你会回应吗？ 谢国忠：我不会跟这些人辩论的。市场上有那么多的观点，如果你去辩论的话，没有那么多的时间和精力。 新京报：你会怎么办？ 谢国忠：尽管有质疑，但事实上市场对我还是很认可的。此前，我曾是摩根士丹利的董事总经理及亚太区首席经济分析家，我从2000年到2006年连续6年获得华尔街《机构投资者》行业第一名，并入选该杂志亚洲最佳经济学家。在我之前，华尔街从未给予过个人这么高的奖项，在我之后也没有过。所以，我怎么会跟乱七八糟的人去争论呢？(WILL I DEBATE WITH "RUBBISH"PEOPLE?) 新京报：完全置之不理吗？ 谢国忠：基本如此。 新京报：今年3月份政府出台“国五条”，一些学者认为“房价会暴跌”，你怎么看？ 谢国忠：国内这些专家学者多是为了造名声。有吸引眼球的，有的为了迎合老百姓的心理。这些人跟我没关系。 新京报：大多专家和学者都看涨中国房价的时候，你却坚持看跌，你会受到他们的影响吗？ 谢国忠：不会。但是，因为“羊群心态”的存在，会观察这些人的观点，最终还是自己做出独立判断。 新京报：这种坚持，你会觉得孤独吗？ 谢国忠：我不孤独，我有很多朋友。 那些想哗众取宠，靠语言吸引眼球的人，是做不好研究的。

谢国忠唱衰言论一览 2013年 6月2日 “房地产泡沫未来数月内破灭，最多不到一年。” 2013年 3月28日 “房地产一定会慢慢下滑。” 2012年 12月5日 “未来五年内房价跌一半。” 2012年 2月1日 “今年房价可能会跌25%，未来三年内跌幅可能达到50%” 2011年 12月21日 “中国房价跌幅可能很快达到25%，未来两到三年，可能还要继续同样跌幅。” 11月11日 “中国房地产要爆了。” 2011年 11月9日 “房价调整至少需要3年，房价降一半仍属理性。每平米价格降到城市两个月平均工资之下才合理。” 2010年 12月9日 “房地产进入熊市，大城市房地产价格可能要降一半。” 11月5日 “中国房价已经见顶，下跌是渐进式的。每年掉7%，掉个20年，一直掉80%。” 10月10日 “中国房地产已进入熊市，将持续五年。” 10月2日 “未来五年大城市房价平均跌一半。” 9月30日 “泡沫过后中国部分房价会跌9成。” 4月28日 “楼市泡沫即将破灭时，会通知大家。保姆都去买房了，房子没理由不跌。” 4月22日 “打压楼市不足以遏制泡沫。” 2010年 2月20日 “楼价持续上涨或致市场崩溃，引发严重后果。” 2009年 12月10日 “2012年股市、楼市泡沫终将破灭。” 12月4日 “下轮经济危机在2012年。” 11月16日 “房地产泡沫非常大。” 2009年 2月1日 “2009年楼价仍有下调空间。” □新京报记者 金彧 北京报道 (新京报) (责任编辑：郑华)

TRANSLATIONS IN RED.

EXACTLY MY SENTIMENTS.WHERE ARE THE SO CALLED PROPERTY BULLS ,MAJORITY IDIOTS IN 2005-2006???WHEN MAJORITY ARE NOT BULLISH,I,VAMPIRE INVESTOR,HAVE ALREADY TURNED BULLISH.

WHEN MAJORITY ARE BULLISH,I HAVE ALREADY TURNED BEARISH.

14th june2013-a few days i said hangseng double bottom,I STILL STAND BY MY VIEW.ITS UNCANNY SIMILAR THAT THE SAME PATTERN REPEATED AGAIN!!WTF!!

MISTAKE IN CHART:OCT 2011-FEB2012 IS 4MONTHS ,NOT 6MONTHS.DONE THIS NEAR SLEEPING TIME,HONEST MISTAKE

HANGSENG UPTREND CHANNEL SINCE OCT3 2011 WEEK.

STAGES-
UPTRENDS

1)16100 TO 21760---NEAR 6000 PTS

DURATION:3OCT2011 TO FEB20,2012=4MONTHS

2)18056 TO 23944--NEAR 6000 PTS

DURATION:JUNE4 2012 TO FEB 4,2013=8MONTHS

DOWNTRENDS

1)21760 TO 18056=3000+ POINTS

FEBRUARY 20 2012 TO JUNE4,2012=4MONTHS

2)23944 TO 20650=3000+ POINTS

FEBRUARY 4 2012 TO JUNE13,2012=4MONTHS

WITH SUCH A FUCKING CLEAR PATTERN,HOW CAN ANYONE TRUST NEWS??

I DARE PREDICT NOW THAT HANGSENG WILL HIT 26400-26600 IN 6 TO 8MONTHS TIME.

IT TALLIES WITH HANGSENG GOING TO ITS 78.6%FIBO WITH STI BACK TO ITS 100%FIBO.

(FIBO RANGE CALCULATED FROM SUBPRIME RANGE,2007OCT PEAK TO 2008OCT LOWEST POINT)

 

9th june 2013-EXACTLY WHAT I SAID "CHINA WILL HAVE CRISIS IN 2015".THIS CHINA CREDIT SUISSE ASIA HEAD ECONOMIST OF 18YEARS ECHOES MY VIEW

陶冬：入行十八年 中国经济到最困难时

2013年6月8日09:40　福布斯中文网　 我要参与(0)

中国第一季经济表现欠佳，专家亦纷纷下调对中国国内生产总值（GDP）的预测，外资大行及评级机构亦接二连三发表报告，看空内地经济前景。最新公布中国5月汇丰制造业采购经理指数（PMI）初值只有49.6，创7个月最低水平，反映制造业已陷入收缩。
瑞信亚洲区首席经济师陶冬，出席台湾“亚洲高峰经济论坛”时直言“中国经济已陷泥沼”，称这是他入行18年来，中国经济最困难、最不稳定的时期，当权者若再不正视风险，估计两三年后，中国随时爆发如2008年美国金融海啸的大危机。TRANSLATION:CREDIT SUISSE ASIA HEAD OF ECONOMISTS SAID THIS IS CHINA'S HARDEST TIMES IN HIS 18YEARS IN HIS JOB AS AN ECONOMIST.IF CHINA DOES NOT VIEW IT SERIOUSLY,CHINA WILL HAVE A SIMILAR CRISIS WITH THAT OF USA IN 2 TO 3 YEARS TIME.
3大危机
经济伪增长
金融产品爆煲
通胀恶化
中国经济是转淡还是纯粹调整？陶冬以“穿高跟鞋”的假增长来形容中国目前状况，指经济增速实际正不断往下走，中国惟有作出突破性体制改革，打破国企垄断，才能激发新一波经济增长，而最能拉动内地经济重新起步的行业，就是医疗、教育等服务业。
潜力产业
医疗
教育
演讲摘要：
瑞信亚洲区首席经济师陶冬，受到台湾财经杂志邀请到台北演讲。外界不看好中国经济复苏的能力，这位来自外资投行的中国经济专家，也不例外。陶冬在台上一开口便语出惊人，“中国经济现正面临我加入投资银行、研究中国经济18年以来，最困难、最不确定的时期。”
他认为中国正值经济转型和经济结构调整阶段，危机处处，如果中国能率先由世界工厂转型为提供服务业的国家，未来将可成为领导世界经济的龙头；相反，如果中国没有有效监管金融风险，未来几年便有机会引发类似2008年美国金融海啸的危机，一发不可收拾。
危机一：理财信托产品 金融计时炸弹
陶冬曾撰文指，近年内地银行的理财产品出现“爆炸性增长”，债权产品的设计、销售、风险控制等范畴有失控趋势，而且这些产品透明度低、结构复杂，又绕过监管机构，成为内地金融市场的计时炸弹。
这次陶冬更分享一次购买内地银行理财产品的亲身经验：年初时有位朋友跟他说，银行不断推销一款理财产品，说该产品会担保7.5%回报，陶冬直言，这世界根本没有这么好的事情，于是亲身到内地向银行查询该理财产品的内容，“银行的销售员非常热情，说这个产品非常好，你一定要买，我问他这个回报7.5%的产品，背后到底是什么样的资产那么好呢？他说，‘不知道，但就是好产品，我们大银行就是不会骗你的钱！’”
一再追问下，职员把银行产品设计部门的电话号码给陶冬，他于是向部门部长追问，对方表示不清楚，于是又再给另一个负责设计产品的同事电话号码给陶冬，几经波折，终于他在一位“小伙子”身上才找到答案。
高风险产品变担保产品
原来这理财产品是由8个包括向房地产开发商和地方政府等借钱的信贷产品、以及4个企业债券组成，名副其实是结构性产品，“对我来说，这恰恰就是一个高风险资产，被他们揉一揉之后就不见了风险两字，最后还贴上一个卷标‘担保产品’。”
陶冬指出，内地金融体制内的银行贷款额，在2008年之后已处于稳定水平，“而真正拉动经济、提供信贷的，其实是‘全社会贷款’，也就是经济学说的‘影子银行’（Shadow Banking）。”银行近年通过如信托基金、理财产品等方式进行的贷款业务，规模愈来愈大，这类在银行资产负债表外（Off-Balance-Sheet）交易的融资产品，虽然增加市场资金流动性，稳住内地经济增长，但因规模急增，令人担忧为金融体系埋下危机。
信托基金规模过度扩张
“去年内地最火红的就是信托基金，红到甚么程度呢？”陶冬听说在上海一家信托基金，因为赚太多钱，连一位倒茶阿婶的花红也高达100万元（人民币，下同），“花红这么高，你就知道Something Wrong。”他说，这家信托基金一项放贷予海南岛地方政府的项目，投资了风力发电，由海口到三亚之间高速公路的电灯柱上，都安装小风车的发电装置，“不过后来才发现除了几次台风之外，那里根本没有风！你说这样的投资怎能够赚钱？”
陶冬指，2012年内地信托基金积极扩张，其中70%就是投资到像海南岛地方政府的基础建设之上，他忧虑到2014年至2015年，当这批基金步入到期还款高峰期时，大量信托基金会还不起钱，引发金融灾难。
希望中央有先见之明及早救火
他指，现时中国信托基金总额达到7.5万亿元，总值甚至已超过保险业总额；其他贷款产品亦急速增长，如财富管理的理财产品市场已达7.6万亿元，新兴的券商理财市场亦有1.9万亿元，每日更以100亿元在增加，"现时内地整个影子银行总额为24万亿元，即是等于中国GDP的44%，占去年整体新增贷款一半。"
他估计，一旦社会出现通胀、人行加息之后，便会陆续发生债务违约事件，最快可能今年底前出现，而2015年至2017年之间，更有机会爆发大规模金融危机，到时不但影子银行，连正规银行、地方债及房地产将会连环爆煲，"现时内地整个影子银行总额约等于中国GDP的44%，但中央政府还有相当多钱，大概等于GDP的73%，这意味着中央还有能力救一次金融危机，而关键是在甚么时候救。早一点救，伤害程度会低一点；如果有危机出现才救，这问题就会变得相当大。"
想掌握经济前景去向，自然要了解经济周期变化的拐点，市场上有人认为，中国经济即将进入新周期，但陶冬看来，中国其实进入一个"伪周期"，只算是上一个周期的延续。
内地4月经济数据出现改善，海关总署公布4月出口增长达14.7%，超乎市场预期，骤看以为有新气象，但陶冬大胆指出，内地出口数字有造假之嫌。
陶冬留意到出口数字中最强劲的升幅，其实来自香港的大幅增长，3月由内地出口香港的总值为483.7亿美元，但香港政府统计处数据却显示，由中国入口的产品总值只有204.5亿美元，两者相差逾1倍，达279.2亿美元（见表一）。
两地数据 差距逾倍
内地与香港公布的出口及入口数据向来存在差异，内地海关总署曾解释，这是因两地统计口径不同。不过，翻查2005年至2012年两地政府公布的数据，两者差异幅度仅约10%左右，但至今年首三个月，差距竟突然以数倍放大，内地公布数字为香港的一倍（见表一），故被指存在严重水份。有分析指，不少内地企业虚报出口，早前商务部发言人亦承认，官方数据"有一些异常因素"；有内地媒体估算，今年首季虚假贸易总额达347亿美元。
"如果你看第一季GDP，几乎所有（范畴）都在往下走，或是持平，之所以增长还有7.5%至8%，其实是政府在传统GDP上，再加上地方政府投资。"他指GDP靠地方投资谷大增长，但实体经济其实一般（见表二），他形容中国目前经济，就像一个男人穿上高跟鞋一样，"看上去高了8%而已，实际上是没有改变。"
第一季上游企业"惨烈"
中国经济增长速度正往下走，而今年第一季上游企业，陶冬更用"惨烈"来形 容，"去年底上游企业以为经济开始复苏，每家工厂都加大生产量，但现在大家都知道错了，立刻停止生产，造成很多机器闲置无用，产品大量积存。"他认为，中 国经济正面临民间投资消失的问题，民间投资所擅长的制造业，已经变得无利可图，工资暴涨、产能过剩，使得民营企业不再愿意投资。
最近公布中国5月汇丰制造业PMI初值为49.6，创7个月最低水平，亦是自去年10月以来，首次跌破50的分水岭，反映5月制造业7个月以来首次陷入收缩，而PMI新定单预览值亦只有49.%，创8个月最低水平。
危机三：通胀恶化 内房泡沫
中国公布4月通胀2.4%，尚算温和，但令陶冬非常担心的，正是通胀问题。陶冬认为，近期内地发生H7N9疫情，以致通胀才稍稍缓和，但当市民对吃猪肉、鸡肉的信心慢慢回来，到时食品的价格便会升，通胀亦会进一步恶化。
"今天农民在拼命杀猪、杀鸡，假如到夏天这些病都不见了，饮食开始恢复，大家就会发现猪不够吃了。"他说，鸡可以在3个月至4个月内养出来，但猪至少需要16个月， "现在连母猪都杀掉，农民就要先养大母猪才行，整个养猪周期就拉长至两年多。"他续指，短期来说，内地将出现"猪肉荒"，"内地猪价必然会暴涨，年底 CPI（居民消费物价指数）起码会因而达到4%，明年更会由4%登上5%，到时候中国人民银行就不得不加息了。"
未来一年楼价易升难跌
除了猪价，楼价亦进一步推高通胀。陶冬认为加息不但不会影响内房表现，在未来一年房价更只会"易升难跌"。
他忆述早前在澳门跟一班内地地产开发商作演讲，发现几乎所有高层，都兴高采烈地商讨拿甚么地来发展、如何合作等等，显示出他们对市场前景的信心，"内地房地产经济最弱一环就是开发商的现金流，现在她们的现金流明显比上一年改善，如果最弱的一环获强化之后，整个行业也会变强。"
虽然年初国务院推出"国五条"，以加强调控房地产市场，陶冬认为这只是前朝政府温家宝的政策，对未来楼市没有太大影响。"对于‘国五条’千万不要害怕，这是前总理温家宝谢幕之作，并不是新总理李克强开幕之作，自新政府上任以来，国务院开了5次会议，但‘房地产’这3个字连提也没有提过。"
总理李克强对楼市的干预不及前朝，陶冬相信新政府在未来12至个月18个月，只会作口头上干预，市场或会有短暂波动，但整体来说，房价仍然会继续上升。
前景未明内需可撑经济
他预计，在中国超高储蓄率（中国2011年为51.8%，全球平均只有19.7%）的情况之下，买房子依然是人民最稳妥的储蓄方法，因此这笔民间资金会继续推动房价上升。
最后，陶冬不忘提醒投资者，内房市场始终有风险，"内地房地产是有泡沫的，早晚会破灭，而这个破灭会紧紧的跟内地影子银行连在一起。"
虽然陶冬认为中国经济充满危机，前景并不明朗，但唯一令人安慰的，是内需仍可撑住经济。陶冬指，中央高层力推"反腐败、反浪费"后，高端消费虽有明显下降趋势，却影响不了整体内需表现，"你在任何城市现在都会发现VIP房间，空空如也，给老总买车子、珠宝的情况也不见了，但是由于民间一般消费下跌速度较慢，相信经济增长仍可稳定在6%至7%。"
出路篇：打破国企垄断 教育医疗现商机
目前中央运用货币政策及财政政策扩张救市，陶冬认为，虽可稳定一时的经济增长，但无法拉出持续上升的动力，因为"结构性因素造成的经济衰弱，必须靠结构上改变来解决问题"。
"自从邓小平开放改革后，内地经济每10年就陷入泥沼一次。"陶冬以中国经济史分析：八十年代初、文化大革命后，中国靠改革农村体制突破，提高生产力；九十年代初，经济再次陷入泥沼，靠的是邓小平推出经济特区，也是体制上的突破，将经济重纳增长轨道；至本世纪初，中国再度陷入泥沼，而这次加入世界贸易组织（WTO），一样是因体制上的突破带动生产力。
故陶冬推断，今天中国最迫切就是要体制上的突破，要打破体制，就须开放服务业给民间投资，"因现时在国企垄断下，服务业效率太低。"
户籍改革推动经济突破
他批评现在内地服务业之差，不止只是"技术上的差"，而且是"道德上的差"，"你试想想，你去内地千万不要病，要是生病就麻烦，无病都看出一些病出来，未死都被吓死啦！有病就跟你乱治，内地医疗业在我看来已经破产了。"他认为除了医疗，教育和文化产业等都是大有前途的服务行业。
但要发展服务业，陶冬认为户籍改革是重要一步，"开放城市户籍给农民，让农民享受城市居民所有的医疗卫生、教育及退休基金等服务，拉动农村人口的消费。"
"要推动户籍改革关键是资金，为农民开户籍，开始最少要5，000亿元，几年之后是7万亿元到13万亿元，这些钱谁来出？最终我知道就是（要）由国营企业，他们需要把分红比例提上去，但这又牵涉到利益。"
陶冬相信户籍改革、放弃独生子女政策都是突破体制的方法，其中又以开放民营投资服务业为重中之重。（原载于福布斯中文网）

EXACTLY MY SENTIMENTS.BUT AS I SAID BEFORE,THE CRISIS WILL NOT HAPPEN NOW.JUST LIKE IN USA,BEFORE USA SUBPRIME CRISIS NEWS CAME OUT,USA MAIN INDICES KEPT ON RISING TILL THERE WAS A DOUBLE TOP IN THE SP500 IN 2007.CRISIS ALWAYS COMES AFTER A MASSIVE SURGE,NOT AMID THE STOCKMARKET IN DOLDRUMS.THAT IS WHY CHINA CRISIS WILL NOT HAPPEN IN 2013,BUT RATHER AFTER SHANGHAI COMPOSITE REVISITED 2007 OCT HIGHEST,6124 OR NEAR 2007 OCT HIGHEST 6124

8th june 2013-I EXPLAIN WHAT IS GOING ON,WHY USMARKETS MUST REBOUND AND CONTINUE ON UPTREND FROM HERE.REMEMBER IT IS THE FINAL 1.5YEARS OF RALLY,THE FINAL COUNTDOWN!!

DOWJONES UP 200 HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH USA JOBS NUMBERS.I SHALL EXPLAIN WHY USA MARKETS MUST SOAR TONIGHT.SOMETIMES GOOD JOBS NUMBERS,MAIN INDICES PLUNGE ON "LESSER STIMULUS HOPES" FUCK.SOMETIMES BAD JOBS NUMBERS,MAIN INDICES PLUNGE ON FUCK"RENEWED ECONOMIC FEARS OF RECESSION"

ALL THESE FUCKS TRYING TO EXPLAIN HERE AND EXPLAIN THERE WHEN THE REALITY IS SO FUCKINGLY SIMPLE.

THIS IS THE REALITY--

I AM A VERY SELF CONFIDENT PERSON AND NEVER FLIPFLOP ABOUT THE MAIN DIRECTION OF THE MAIN INDEX.I DONT CARE WHETHER FUCK-OFF-MY-COCK TAPIR QUALITY ERECTION OR NOT.I DONT CARE USA HAS SO MANY QUALITY ERECTIONS,CAN BE QE30000 OR QE30000000,I JUST CARE ABOUT THE "DIVINE RELATIONSHIP" BETWEEN INDICES OF DIFFERENT COUNTRIES.

I HATE NEWS HOSTS BEING PAID SUCH HIGH SALARIES FOR TALKING JIBBERISH COCK ABOUT TWO SIDED FUNNYMENTAL VIEWS.

THE REALITY IS SIMPLE:DO YOU HAVE THE FUCKING BALLS TO BE INVESTED AND STAY INVESTED AT LOWS???

7TH JUNE 2013--COORDINATION BETWEEN USA SHIPS AND ASIA SHIPS AND SHANGHAI COMPOSITE.CANNOT BE LUCK THAT DRYSHIPS AND SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 6TIMES SAME PEAKS AND BOTTOMS!!TOLD YOU SHIPPING STCKS TRACK SHANGHAI COMPOSITE VERY CLOSELY

STAGE 2 :WHY IS IT STAGE 1 MULTIPLY BY 1.3?3500divided by 2697=1.3

STAGE 3:why is it STAGE 1 MULTIPLY BY 2.3??6120 DIVIDED BY 2697=2.3

5th JUNE 2013--let me explain how i suspected foreign companies when they come to sgx to list,EVEN BEFORE THE S-CHIPS SUSPENDED SCANDAL.

Today 09:02 PM#1

chinatownboy

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http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?803424-How-mant-of-you-still-trust-analysts-I-don-t-trust-them-anymore!!!

How many of you still trust analysts??? I don't trust them anymore!!!

I still cannot forget how theses people lauded, recommended, upgraded FERROCHINA when it was $1+ months before the company went bust!

The trusting me held on to my shares in hope, only to see them all worthless months later, leavin me with 5 figure losses!

If this happened in a third world country I can understand but a 'world class financial hub' like Singapore .............?????

Last edited by chinatownboy; Today at 09:55 PM.
 

MY COMMENTS-

FROM 2003 TILL TODAY,I NEVER TRUSTED ANALYSTS.THE WEIRD THING IS THAT FUNDAMENTALS SHOULD HELP "SEE THROUGH" COMPANY'S HEALTH,BUT EVEN FUNDAMENTALS FAILED!!THEN WHAT USE IS FUNDAMENTALS??

WHY DO ANALYSTS FAIL TO SEE?WHEN SHOULD YOU START TO SUSPECT?

1)MANY ANALYSTS ARE LATE IN TIMING THE STOCKMARKETS BECAUSE OF THE MODELLING TECHNIQUES THEY USE.

2)MANY ANALYSTS ARE JUST FRESH GRADS,WITHOUT EVEN YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN STOCKMARKET.THEY ARE JUST JOB SEEKERS,NOT INVESTORS.

3)MANY SUSPENDED COMPANIES ARE "BALLOONED" TO HEAVENLY LEVELS BY ANALYSTS DUE TO ROBUST PROFIT MARGINS.BUT WHEN THESE SUSPENDED COMPANIES DECLARE "EXCEPTIONAL" PROFITS,THEY DID NOT GIVE A CENT OF DIVIDEND.SHOULD NOT YOU START TO SUSPECT??

I DONT KNOW WHY IN MY 10YEARS,I AM NEVER HIT BY EVEN ONE SUSPENDED COMPANY!!IT PAYS TO BE SUSPICIOUS EVEN BEFORE THE WAVE OF SUSPENSIONS HAPPENED AFTER 2007.

4th june 2013-remember wat i said about a major crash in 2015 from china?

Warning: ‘Prepare’ for Commodity Supercycle End

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Published: Monday, 3 Jun 2013 | 1:23 AM ET

By: Katrina Bishop | Deputy News Editor, CNBC.com

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Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg via Getty Images

With multiple investment banks signposting the end of the commodity supercycle, a World Bank director has warned developing countries that have benefited from the surge to protect themselves against a price crash.
Marcelo Giugale, the World Bank's director of economic policy and poverty reduction programs for Africa, told CNBC that states which have gained from the commodity boom should prepare for a slump.

"We don't want another wasted opportunity," he said. "This time around, things should be done differently. The material bonanza has the potential to become a human bonanza – whereby the standard of living for many people across these developing countries can be raised."

The high prices of commodities, such as industrial metals and oil, have boosted the revenues of countries rich in these resources. But notoriously volatile commodity markets have had catastrophic consequence for countries in the past. The so-called Commodity Crisis of the 1980s saw countries in Latin America and Africa battle financial, social and political instability, following rapid, commodity-driven expansions.

(Read More: Is It All Downhill for Commodity Currencies?)
Economists describe the apparent pattern in these price booms and busts as the commodity supercycle, with decades of rising prices followed by a crash.

Economics' Higgs Boson

Last year, Columbia University's Bilge Erten argued there have been three complete supercycles of between 30 and 40 years: the first peaking in 1917, the second in 1951 and the third in 1973.

We are in the midst of the fourth cycle, she said, which began at the start of the century and is driven primarily by the industrialization of China.

"It is not clear how long this cycle is going to be," Erten told CNBC. "Overall, we found that supercycles have between 15 and 20 years of expansion. We've had about 10 years of expansion since 2000 so we have maybe five more years to go if this cycle fits the pattern of previous ones."

(Read More: Brazil's Rate Hike Harks Back to 2011, Without the Boom)

But a number of economists – including Giugale – are far from convinced that these supercycles even exist.

"The commodity supercycle has been to economics what the Higgs boson has been to physics – all theories point towards their existence but we've never been able to see it," Giugale said.

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China's Appetite

The rate of growth in China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals, would be crucial to prices, Giugale added.

Until recently, China had seen decades of unprecedented growth, driving up the price of commodities amid increasing demand.

But the world's second largest economy disappointed in the first quarter of this year, growing by just 7.7 percent, from 7.9 percent in the previous three months. It followed the slowest rate of annual growth in 13 years in 2012, and last week, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 growth outlook for China from 8 percent to 7.75 percent.

The accompanying slowdown in China's appetite for commodities has put downwards pressure on their prices, with the cost of almost all of the main traded commodities falling in the first quarter of this year.

(Read More: 'Rude Shock' Ahead for Commodity Currencies: Pro)
One striking example is copper, which has slipped by around 16 percent over the year to date. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange slumped to an 18-month low of $6,762.25 a tonne in April and was trading at around $7,335 on Monday morning in London.

Dramatic price slumps like this have led some analysts to claim the commodity supercycle is coming to an end. Last month, Citigroup's commodities team said 2013 would be the year in which the "death bells ring" for the supercycle, and last week, Saxo Bank's chief economist said the cycle is "winding down."

The Middle of the Storm

This potential change to the commodity landscape should motivate countries to put their fiscal houses in order, Giugale said.

"They should sort out government accounts, not run large deficits and have a large cushion available to provide more social protection and assistance," he said. "They should also allow their central banks to fight the inflationary pressure that a crisis like a crash in prices might generate. These two macroeconomic pillars, to me, are sacrosanct."

The prioritization of investment was also key, Columbia University's Erten said.

(Read More: Commodity Super Cycle Is Dead: Citi)
"It's important for the countries to save part of the commodity boom and invest it in new industries, such as the services sector or manufacturing."

Chile was one of the few countries succeeding in saving the supercycle's windfalls, according to Erten; but most were not.

"Even in South Africa - the continent's most developed country - the majority of industrial policies are pushing for more metal production," she said.

"It's even worse in less-developed African countries. There are very few attempts to diversify, which is really bad because relying on high commodity prices for long-term growth is subjecting economies to very volatile swings."

But Giugale stressed that even though commodity prices were slipping, demand remained high, meaning that developing countries' fiscal revenues should hold up for a while longer.

Being prepared is crucial, he added. "Developing countries don't want to have to deal with issues like this right in the middle of a storm. It's like worrying about your house catching fire when it's already burning."
—By CNBC's Katrina Bishop. Follow her on Twitter @KatrinaBishop.

my comments--

year 2000 +15years=2015!!!! THIS 4TH COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE STARTED WITH CHINA AND WILL END WITH CHINA!!!!china crash will definitely affect asia,that means hongkong,australia,and singapore.

BUT NOT IN 2013.Y?CHINA STOCKMARKET UPCYCLE HAS NOT FINISHED YET.BASED ON CURRENT CHINA INFLATION CHART,ITS CURRENT INFLATION IS WAY TOO LOW AT 2.4% IN LAST QUARTER.NOMINAL INTEREST RATES STAND AT 6%,WHICH MEANS THERE IS ROOM FOR INTEREST RATES TO GO DOWN.

I KNOW PEOPLE WILL ARGUE THAT CHINA HAS TO REIN IN PROPERTY PRICES,BLAH BLAH.YES,BUT WHICH IS MORE IMPORTANT 1ST,GIVEN THAT CURRENTLY,CHINA REAL INTEREST RATES ARE STILL POSITIVE,HAVE NOT TURNED NEGATIVE YET.PROTECTING JOBS AKA IMPROVING THE WEAKENING CHINA PMI IS IMPORTANT OR PROTECTING AGAINST INFLATION???

AS YOU KNOW,INFLATION IS ALWAYS THE LESSER OF THE 2 EVILS BETWEEN LOSS OF JOBS OR PROTECTING AGAINST INFLATION.TO HAVE JOBS IS STILL MUCH BETTER THAN SACRIFICING JOBS FOR THE SAKE OF PROTECTING A LOW INFLATION BASE FROM GOING HIGHER

2nd june 2013-I TOLD YOU THE SAME THINGS BEFORE DR. YIU SAID.DR.YIU INDIRECTLY "HELPED" ME FIND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

http://ecyy.weebly.com/uploads/1/2/9/3/12935669/negative_real_interest_rate_causes_the_housing_bubble_bnw.pdf

ABOVE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH DONE BY DR. EDWARD YIU OF C.U.HK




PLEASE GO TO THIS WEBSITE AND YOU WILL FIND OUT WHAT I SAID ABOUT ARE ALL TRUE!!!

1)STOCKMARKET MUST CRASH FIRST BEFORE DEFLATION SETS IN

2)AFTER DEFLATION SETS IN,THEN THE HOUSING BUBBLE WILL DEFLATE VERY FAST,AKA BURST

I LOVE DR. EDWARD YIU's COMMENTS ABOUT MY "DEFINITION OF IDIOTS"---

AS QUOTED:

"NEGATIVE RIR tempts people to borrow and invest in the housing markets to reap "no-risk" returns and to hedge inflation!"

 

my comments

 

 

 

banks so kind to you,lend you 70-80% of property price at around 1% p.a. interest and allow you to earn BOTH ON PROPERTY PRICE APPRECIATION AND MONTHLY RENTAL WAY ABOVE INTEREST RATES????

 

BANKS  ARE OWNED BY YOUR FATHER, IS IT???

 

june 1st 2013-although sp500 plunged,monday morning will be asia gap down and recover up

why?
because hk and sti has plunged ahead of usa sp500 from 1690 to 1630