SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS




THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF

PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU

SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE

SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations

UPTRENDS-

1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend

2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.

3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.

4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.

5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.

6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.

7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.

8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.

9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.

10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,

CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS

1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500

2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks

3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------

eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed

eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..

1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065

-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010

-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge

-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010

2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.

-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011

-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370

-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders

-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074

THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG


LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN

1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"

2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"

3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.

4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS

5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT

6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF

I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!

1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??

GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.


19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK





3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK

4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????








N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)



Friday, December 30, 2011

30dec2011-TALE OF 3 DRY BULK SHIPPERS-GO FOR DRY BULK SHIPPERS WHICH ARE STILL PROFITABLE AMID BDI PLUNGE 80%

I KNOW DRY BULK SHIPPERS WONT RECOVER SO FAST DUE TO OVERSUPPLY IN SHIPPERS BUT ALL THE DRY BULK SHIPPERS STOCKS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN EXCESS OF THE BDI PLUNGE.SO ANY INCREASE IN DRY BULK SHIPPERS STOCKS WILL BE EXPECTED SOON.WAIT FOR THE OPERATOR TO ENTER THE DEAD DRY BULK SHIPPERS 1ST AS YOU DONT KNOW WHEN THEY WILL ENTER(I WILL TEACH U HOW TO SPOT THEIR ENTRY).YOU SURELY DONT WANT YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY TO BE TIED WHEN THEY TAKE THEIR OWN SWEET TIME TO ENTER. POSITIVE DIVERGENCES IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES SAME INDUSTRY STOCK CHARTS DO NOT GUARANTEE IT WILL GO UP RIGHT NOW.(IT MAY STAY STAGNANT FOR MONTHS)BUT ITS SURE A POWERFUL SIGNAL THAT ENABLED ME TO BUY STOCKS IN MARCH END 2009.I STILL KEEP MY CONTRACTS WITH ME AS PROOF.

Monday, December 19, 2011

19th december 2011-SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 3RD WAVE(5WAVE UP) IN 5-3-5 WAVE FORMING

5 WAVE up-THE MEGA BULLRUN TILL 2007, 3WAVE downTHE CORRECTION FROM 2007-2008 5WAVE UP,FROM NOW TILL AROUND 2015(SYNCHRONIZING WITH HANGSENG 32K) in this 5wave up,WE ARE ASSUMING 1.2180S IS THE FINAL LOW,NO MORE THAN THAT AS 0.382 X 1664-3476 = 2356,AS WAVE 2 IN ELLIOTT 5 WAVE UP CANT BE MORE THAN 61,8% OF WAVE1.2180S IS NOT SO FAR AWAY FROM 2350s.BUT IF IT FALLS TO BELOW THE 23.6%,2091,then THE ELLIOT 5WAVE UP PATTERN WILL NOT HAPPEN IN WAVE 3,ELLIOTT THEORY STATES THAT IT WILL BE THE LONGEST WAVE UP,PEAKING AT AROUND 1.618 X 1.8K=2.9K.WE ADD 2.9K TO 2.2K WE WILL GET THE 78.6% FIBO OF 6120-1664 RANGE. WAVE 5 WILL PEAK AT THE SAME HIGHS AS 2007=6120 AND IT WILL BE THE START OF ASIA CRISES.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

17dec2011-3RD HUMP IS STILL FORMING IN SP500,WITH SHANGHAI REVERSING,BACK TO 1ST HUMP SCENARIO

LET ME DO THE HONOURS OF SUMMARIZING AGAIN THE SP500 10WEEKS UP PATTERN AND COMBINE WITH SHANGHAI COMPOSITE AND HANGSENG, 1ST 10WEEKS UP PATTERN(DATE MEANS WEEK STARTING DD/MM/YEAR) MAR09 2009-MAY4TH 2009 SP500 +40%(666-930) SSE +27% (2066-2625) HSI +54% (11300-17400) 2ND 10WEEKS UP PATTERN JUL13 2009-SEPT14 2009 SP500 +23% (869-1069) SSE -4.4% (3098-2962) HSI +22% (17700-21600) 3RD 10WEEKS UP PATTERN 2NOV 2009-JAN4 2010 SP500 +10.5% (1036-1144) SSE +6.7% (2995-3196) HSI +3% (21700-22300) 4TH 10WEEKS UP PATTERN FEB15 2010-APRIL19 2010 SP500 +13% (1075-1217) SSE -1.2% (3018-2983) HSI +5% (20200-21200)(ACTUALLY HANGSENG TURNED DOWN IN THE WEEK BEFORE,THE WEEK STARTING APRIL 12TH 2010 AND HAD DROPPED 5% FROM 22300s,HENCE THE GAINS ARE REDUCED BY 5%,initially the gains are +10%.IN LINE WITH SP500) 5th 10WEEKS UP PATTERN august30 2010-NOV1 2010 SP500 +15% (1065-1225) SSE +20% (2610-3129) HSI +20% (20600-24.9K) 6th 10WEEKS UP PATTERN NOV29 2010-FEB14 2011 SP500 +13% (1189-1344) SSE +1% (2871-2899) HSI +3% (22900-23600) ALL TIMINGS(10WEEKS UP,SOMETIMES 9,12 BUT MAJORITY 10)AND VALUES ARE APPROXIMATES. NEXT COMES THE CONSOLIDATIONS OF SP500 1.MAY11 2009-JUL6 2009(2MONTHS) SP500 -5.3%(929-879) SSE +19%(2625-3113) HSI +2% (17.4K-17.7K) 2.SEPT21 2009-0CT26 2009(1MONTH) SP500 -3%(1069-1036) SSE +6.8%(2962-3164) HSI +1% (21600-21750) 3.JAN11 2010-FEB8 2010(1MONTH) SP500 -9%(1144-1044) SSE -5.6%(3196-3018) HSI -9% (22300-20300) 4.APR26 2010-AUG23 2010(4MONTHS) SP500 -13%(1217-1064) SSE -11%(2983-2642) HSI -3+(-5)=-8% (17.4K-17.7K)(HSI ALREADY STARTED COMING DOWN ON WEEK STARTING APR12 2010,5% DOWN 5.NOV8 2010-NOV22 2010(0.5MONTH) SP500 -3%(1225-1189) SSE -8.5%(3129-2871) HSI -8% (24.9K-22.9K) 6.FEB21 2011-NOV21 2011(9MONTHS) SP500 -14%(1343-1158) SSE -16%(2827-2380) HSI -25% (23.6K-17.7K) PLEASE NOTE WHY HANGSENG FELL MORE THAN SHANGHAI AND SP500 BY 10+%??? BECOZ HANGSENG "OWES" THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 10+% BY NOT FACTORING IN THE FALL IN THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IN THE 2ND 10WEEKS UP IN THE SP500 PERIOD.DURING THAT 2ND 10WEEKS UP,HANGSENG IGNORED THE FALL IN SHANGHAI FROM 3.4K TO 3.1K AS SHANGHAI FELL FROM 3.1K APPROX TO 2962.THIS IS CALLED "PLAYING CATCH UP" STOCKMARKET DONT OCCUR BY LUCK.IT IS UP TO THE INVESTOR OR TRADER TO FIND OUT THE TRUTHS. EVEN IF SP500 3RD HUMP DOES NOT FORM TO 1500-1520 BY NEXT AUGUST2012,SP500 WILL ONLY FALL TO 1000 TO "CREATE" A DOUBLE BOTTOM SAME AS THE EURO CRISIS 2010.THERE WILL NOT BE ANY LONGTERM BEAR MARKET UNTIL 2015-2016.I MEAN BY LONGTERM BEAR ISNT JUST A 30% FALL IN >1YEAR FROM MARCH 2011 COUNTING.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

7DEC2011-HOW AMAZING CASE SHILLER GAINS AND HSI GAINS IN 2000-2007 ARE approx SAME 100%!!

CASE SHILLER NOMINAL PRICE INDEX UP FROM 2000-2007 OF 100% APPROXIMATELY,ISNT THAT THE SAME RATE AS HANGSENG,STI UP FROM 2000? how funny the sp500 HIT DOUBLE TOP IN 2007 IS THE SAME TIME CASE SHILLER HIT PEAK,HIGHER THAN 2000PEAK AND ALSO SAME TIME AS ASIA STOCKMARKET HIT PEAK?????????? u add 7/8years(start of 2000 in stockmarket peak to usa property peak in 2007 ) to end of 2007 wont u get 2015/2016 approx in asia property??2015/2016 will be the repeat of 1981-82 whereby sp500 will only plunge 20+% to retest 1580 and bounce up to gain 13-14X JUST LIKE 1982-2000(110 TO 1500) BUT HSI/STI will plunge 70-80+% to CONFIRM SECULAR BEARMARKET started in 2007. HENCE I FIRMLY BELIEVE ASIA PROPERTY WILL BE THE CATALYST TO "CAUSE" ASIA STOCKMARKETS TO CONFIRM THEY HAVE ENTERED SECULAR BEARMARKETS IN 2007. WE TRADERS CAN ONLY CONFIRM A MARKET IS IN SECULAR BEARMARKET ONLY AT THE 2ND TIME IT TESTS THE ALL TIME HIGHS,E.G. IN 2007,SP500 HIT 1580 AND PLUNGE DOWN CONFIRMING USA STOCKMARKET IS IN SECULAR BEAR SINCE YEAR 2000. please refer to case shiller versus sp500 versus hangseng versus sti to confirm what i am saying.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

4dec2011-the movements of 3BROTHERS from now to start of secular bull for usa

IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:1.HSI HIT 25K WITH SP500 HIT 1580 AROUND 2014s,sti to hit 3400s.wasting time 2.sp500 breakout of 110 in 1980s,went to 1981 of 140 and also dropping to retest 110 in september 1981.(drop of -20%).hence im calling for a repeat of 1980-1981 whereby sp500 will breakout of 1580 to 1900s,2000(gain of 27%.hangseng will just retest 32k from 25K,sti will go to 4.5K from 3.4K 3.THEN THE ASIA CRISES PART 2 WILL THEN EMERGE WITH SP500 dropping only 20+% to retest 1570s again JUST LIKE SEPTEMBER 1981 BUT HK,SG WILL PLUNGE 70-80%,ASIAN CRISES DEJAVU 4. HSI WILL PLUNGE TO AS LOW AS 6.5K,(-80% from 32K approx)the 1998 dejavu lowest point,sti will follow suit to 800(-80% from 4.5k approx).ASIA WILL THEN BE TRAPPED IN ITS OWN SECULAR BEAR MARKET FOR THE NEXT 16-20YEARS. 5.then from 6.5K hsi,800 in sti,BOTH WILL GO UP TO THEIR 2007 HIGHEST POINT(5-6X) WHEREAS USA will touch 1570 and go up 13-14X(a repeat of 1981-2000 SECULAR BULL MARKET IN USA from sp500 at 110 to 1500). NOW COME THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION-WHY HK/SGP WILL GO UP ONLY APPROX HALF OF USA?????(13-14X compared with 6-7X) YOU ALL MUST NOT FORGET HSI,STI DOUBLED in 2000-2007 WHEREAS SP500 WAS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THESE SECULAR BEAR MARKET YEARS IN THE USA.THAT IS WHY YOU MUST DIVIDE THE GROWTH RATE OF SP500 BY 2 TO DERIVE THE GROWTH RATE OF HSI,STI. STRANGELY, THEY MATCH TO A TEE.SP500 WILL REPEAT 13-14X GAINS FROM 1570 TO 23000,WHEREAS HSI WILL ONLY BOUNCE from 6K,800 6-7X UP TO 35K,STI TO 4.5K I USED PAST TRENDS IN SP500+USA PROPERTY STOCKS BULLISH TREND+HK/SGP PROPERTY STOCKS BEARISH TREND+AN EXACT OF THE 1966-1982 SECULAR BEARMARKET IN SP500(SO FAR TILL 2011 IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY VERY CLOSE REPLICA) TO ANALYSE.I USE BOTH FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS TO SUPPORT MY VIEW. USA HERE I COME BABY!!

4dec 2011-everything falls into place like jigsaw pieces

from iproperty.com.sg-(they claim to be singapore's no.1 property website) HDB(mass market) started rising only when condos start to go down-i already told people that HDB is a laggard. as u can see for yourselves from that website,GCBs(landed) rose 100% from 60 to 120,condominiums also rose 100% from 70 to 140,HDB WILL LIKEWISE RISE 100% from 100 to 200.hence there is still room for a 10% rise in mass market HDB due to condominiums mood dampened. I DIDNT TALK WITHOUT PROOF-thats why i say asia property crisis will start from the SALARY RICH,ASSET POOR CLASS,THE CONDOMINIUM CLASS.but it wont be anytime soon,as singapore economy is still strong,HDB still hasnt rise to 200+ in the index. MOST IMPORTANTLY, USA FOMC HAS NOT RAISE RATES.ONCE THEY RAISE RATES, IT WILL BE ANOTHER NAIL IN THE COFFIN FOR CONDOMINIUM OWNERS AND MORE WILL DOWNGRADE TO HDB,causing HDB to rise to 200+ in the index.AND THAT WILL BE THE FINALE OF ASIA PROPERTY BOOM AS A WHOLE,starting the asia crises PART 2

4december2011-ANOTHER PROOF TO SUPPORT MY VIEW ASIA RESIDENTIAL WILL BE NEXT SHOE TO DROP IN 2016

let us compare usa property stocks and asia property stocks prices as at 2dec2011 USA industrial/office REITS:BXP:boston properties:2007max:120+,now 94 VS capitalmalls,C38u.si:2007max:4.30s,now 1.80s USA RETAIL REITS:CBL:2007max:50.now 14 VS capitalmalls(also doing retail in singapore,eg. bugis junction,plazasingapura)-C38U.si 2007 max 4.30s, now 1.80s USA RESIDENTIAL REITS:HME:home properties:max 2006:$65,now $54 VS CApitaland C31.si 2007 max:8+,now 2.60s kepland K17.si 2007 max:9.90,now 2.60 CDL,C09.si:2007max:18,now 10 SHK,16.HK:2007 max:170s,now 90s Henderson land:2007max:80,now 38 AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS USA RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY STOCKS WENT TO 2007HIGHS,THEN DROP DOWN recently(above 2010highs),BUT ASIA RESIDENTIAL STOCKS IN 2010 HIGHS IS MUCH LOWER THAN 2007MAX. USA DIVERSIFIED REITS: CLP-2007max:50,now 19 VS KREIT,keppel reit,2007max:3.50s,now 0.86 AS YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELVES ASIA RESIDENTIAL SECTOR STOCKS ARE HARDEST HIT,MUCH MORE THAN USA RESIDENTIAL STOCKS.USA RETAIL REITS AND ASIA RETAIL REITS ARE THE SAME HARD HIT AS BOTH ASIA AND WESTERN ARE FRAUGHT WITH DIFFERENT TROUBLES-ASIA IS SKYHIGH RENTALS BUT USA IS HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT.ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS RETAIL SHOULD BE THE LAST TO RECOVER AS EMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGARD INDICATOR.

4th december 2011-HOW AMAZING THE RATIOS TELL A STORY!!

REMEMBER MY EARLIER TARGETS OF SP500 GOING TO 1900S,STI 4500, HSI ONLY TO 32K?? what do those ratios mean?? remember hongkong is a property crazy place,much crazier than singapore,PLUS THIER HKD FELL BECAUSE OF USD PEG,causing HK PROPERTIES TO BE WORSE THAN SINGAPORE PROPERTY BUBBLE. lets look at CAPITALAND, a blue chip company listed on SGX,a sti component and compare with sti (ALL VALUES ARE APPROX AS IM LAZY TO CHECK THE EXACT)] STI 2004,2007,2010,NOW----1.7K,3.9K,3K,2.8K VERSUS CAPITALAND 2004,2007,2010,NOW--1.50,8+,4+,2.60 just as i predictED in my previous post,CAPITALAND TO GO BACK TO 2010 MAX,AROUND 4.50S WILL BE THE TIME WHEN STI GO TO 3.9K OR EVEN HIGHER TO 4.5K. WHY 4.5K??? lets see for yourselves how "telling" the ratios are capitaland 2.60s to 4.50s approx 70% HSI 19K to 32K-approx 70% STI 2.7K to 4.5K--approx 70% SP500 1.1K to 1.9K--approx 70% BY JUST THE RATIOS,WE NOW KNOW WHY ASIA PROPERTY STOCKS FIRST PLUNGE MORE THAN MAIN INDEX IN 2011.IT IS JUST TO CREATE SPACE TO RETURN TO 2010 LEVELS. IT ALSO TELLS US WHERE THE NEXT CRISIS WILL COME FROM-from asia property bubble!! I PREDICT WITH FACTS,NOT ANYHOW FEEL,BULLSHIT WITHOUT FACTS.WHEN THINGS HAPPEN SO COINCIDENTALLY--U KNOW IT IS ALL PREMADE,PRE PLANNED BEFOREHAND!! HOW CAN ANYONE BUY EXPENSIVE PROPERTIES WITHOUT LEARNING THE STOCKMARKET FIRST?????????????

Saturday, December 3, 2011

3rd december2012-CUT AND PASTE FROM CNBC:GUPPY PREDICTION OF SHANGHAI EXACTLY IN LINE WITH WORLD EQUITY REBOUND

Shanghai Index Could Rally to 2,760 After Soft Landing: Charts Published: Tuesday, 29 Nov 2011 | 6:57 PM ET Text Size By: Daryl Guppy A weakening China economy is a further weight on global indexes. The current global fall may have been started by the euro zone collapse but many have looked for resilience in the China economy and China demand to help lift other economies. Some counties like Australia have built an entire economic recovery strategy based on assumptions about continued China growth. The key China question revolves around the ability of the government to manage a soft landing. Although this is seen as evidence of a command economy, and therefore doomed to failure according to some, the policy initiatives are not much different in approach to those used in Europe with government sponsored intervention, and in America, with government sponsored rescue packages. The Shanghai Index[.SSEC 2360.66 -26.20 (-1.1%) ] shows a steady decline towards 2,300. This is a slowly moving downtrend and quite a contrast to the rapid collapses seen in the DOW[.DJIA 12019.42 -0.61 (0%) ], the DAX [.GDAXI 6080.68 44.80 (+0.74%) ] and the FTSE [.FTSE 5552.29 62.95 (+1.15%) ]. This slow downtrend confirms a soft landing for China, although this does not preclude a bump or two. The Shanghai Index is developing a triple bottom rebound pattern. The small double bottom, shown as points A and B, lead to a successful rebound. The height of this pattern is approximately 118 index points. The target for this pattern is calculated by measuring the distance from the lows to the peak of the rally and projecting this value upwards to give a target of 2,548. This target was not achieved because the resistance from the long-term downtrend line was too powerful. The market retreated from the long-term downtrend line. This retreat shows the long-term downtrend line is a very significant resistance feature. In the future, a close above this downtrend line will be a very powerful trend reversal signal. This is a weekly close seen on a weekly chart. The strongest support level is near 2,300. The 2,300 level acted as a support level in 2010 July and as resistance and support in 2009 February and March. A fall and rebound from support near 2,300 creates a triple bottom pattern. Target calculations for a successful triple bottom pattern are calculated using the same method of measuring the height of the central rebound rally. The third rebound point is somewhere near point C. If support near 2,300 is successful, then the distance to the peak of the most recent rally in November at 2,530 is approximately 230 index points. This value is projected above the peak of the rally at 2,530 and gives a long-term target near 2,760. The wider the separation between the rebound lows in the double and triple bottom pattern then stronger the pattern rebound. The first double bottom pattern between points A and B developed over 9 days. This suggested a weak breakout pattern. The time between the first point in the triple bottom pattern at point A and the possible third point in the triple bottom pattern at point C is already more than 7 weeks. This makes the triple bottom pattern much stronger and this increases the potential for a stronger downtrend breakout. The Shanghai Index has the potential to develop a triple bottom reversal pattern within the context of a broad consolidation base. This combination of features suggests a soft landing and a recovery. Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com. We welcome all questions, comments and requests. CNBC assumes no responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User is using this information at his/her sole risk. © 2011 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER 1)now,2011 end condominiums sentiment dampened by lending curbs,PROPERTY DEVELOPER STOCKS LIKE CAPITALAND -30%,KEPLAND-50% FROM 2010DEC TILL NOW ALREADY HINTED THE ROAD FORWARD FOR PROPERTY WILL BE DARK AND GLOOMY.those who bought CONDOMINIUMS,SALARY RICH,ASSET POOR,AFTER THE FOMC MAINTAINED LOW RATES WILL ALL BE "BURNT IN THE CAULDRON" when asia stockmarket gets entrenched in its own secular bear market. U THINK CAPITALAND,A BLUE CHIP FALL 30% IN 2011 FOR NO REASON??CAPITALAND-30+%,KEPLAND-50%,STI ONLY -20% HINTS TO U WHERE THE NEXT SHOE WILL DROP 2)us economy is expected to grow faster than asia as JP,MORGAN STANLEY raise USA GDP FORECASTS while asia GDP FORECASTS ARE LOWERED ALREADY GIVE U HINTS THAT THE NEXT SHOE TO DROP WILL BE FROM ASIA. 3)us economy recovers faster than expected,people now instead of flocking to asia,now flock to usa for employment.asia condominiums,NOT the mass market will be experiencing GHOST TOWN STATUS. 4)US FOMC RAISE RATES AFTER ECONOMY RECOVER,PUTTING A DOUBLE WHAMMY ON ASIA CONDOMINUIM OWNERS.hk,sgp CENTRAL BANKS follow FOMC raise rates(whats new?) 5)ASIA CONDOMINIUM OWNERS START TO FEEL THE PINCH AS INTEREST IS INCREASING WITH SOME BUYING MORE THAN 1 PROPERTY FACE THE RISK OF GHOST TOWN(NO RENTAL INCOME). 6)ASIA CONDOMINIUM OWNERS START TO DOWNGRADE TO MASS MARKET HOUSING,EG IN SINGAPORE,MANY WILL START TO BUY HDB FLATS,PUSHING UP HDB PRICES,PUSHING DOWN RENTAL YIELDS(AS NOW GOOD LOCATION HDB RENTAL YIELDS ARE AS HIGH AS 6%!!!) 7)asia stockmarket hit 2007PEAK,and start CRASHING 60-70% WHEREAS USA SP500 AFTER BREAKING OUT OF 1580,WILL GO TO 1900S,BEFORE DROPPING ONLY 30% IN RESPONSE TO ASIA PLUNGE 8)3-6MONTHS LATER,ASIA ECONOMIES FACE THE REALITY OF GDP TURNING NEGATIVE,RECESSIONS LOOMING AND JOB CUTS WILL BE ON THE RISE 9)ASIA CONDOMINIUMS WILL TUMBLE LIKE DOMINOES!!BUNGALOWS AND MASS MARKET WONT BE AS AFFECTED AS CONDOMINIUMS,AS MAJORITY OF CONDOMINIUMS ARE OWNED BY SALARY RICH BUT ASSET POOR PEOPLE. THIS IS MY SCENARIO.LETS SEE WHETHER IT WILL COME TRUE.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

3RD HUMP IN SP500 STARTED BUT NEED HSI CONFIRMATION TO DOUBLE CONFIRM

SP500 HAS STARTED THE 3RD HUMP, PREVIOUS 2 HUMPS DURATION: 1ST HUMP:8MONTHS LOWS TO HIGH WEEK STARTING JULY13 2009- WEEK STARTING APRIL 19 2010(8MONTHS,TOTAL POINTS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS:875-1219 TOTAL 350POINTS APPROX 2ND HUMP:9MONTHS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS-WEEK STARTING AUG30 2010 TO WEEK STARTING APRIL 25 2010 (TOTAL 9MONTHS) TOTAL POINTS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS:1040-1370 TOTAL 330POINTS APPROX NOW 3RD HUMP WILL TAKE US TO 1160+(330-350)=1500 BY JULY/AUGUST 2012 PREVIOUS 2 HUMPS STARTED THE 10WEEEKS UPTREND ONLY AFTER FALLING BACK TO ACHIEVE A NEAR DOUBLE BOTTOM FROM THE PREVIOUS LOWS EG.1ST HUMP STARTED AFTER FALLING TO RETEST THE MAY2009 LOWS 2ND HUMP STARTED AFTER FALLING TO nearly RETEST THE WEEK STARTING JUNE 2B 2010 LOWS 3RD HUMP STARTS NOW THIS WEEK,WEEK STARTING 28NOV 2011, AFTER NEAR RETEST AUGUST 2011 LOWS BUT SAYING ALL THESE STILL NEED THE HANGSENG TO "COOPERATE" BY BREAKING OUT OF 20K INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation ONLY AFTER HSI BREAK OUT OF 20K SUCCESSFULLY,THEN I DARE TO SAY 100% THAT IT IS THE START OF THE 3RD HUMP TO 1.5K IN SP500!! I AM WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION IN THE HANGSENG OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A ONE WAY DOWN TO CONTINE THE DESCENDING BROADENING WEDGE FORMATION TO 15K