dow--US MKT--10K

hsi--HK MKT--21000

sti--SG MKT--2650

AFTER CALCULATIONS, ALL MATCH(a total 3% drop from current levels)--IM GOING TO WAIT PATIENTLY TO WHACK CONTRA...

Dubai's Debt Woes Signal New Era for Creditors
Published: Friday, 27 Nov 2009 9:19 AM ET
Text Size
By: Patrick AllenCNBC Senior News Editor
The fact that Dubai has been struggling under huge debts is not a surprise to anyone who has followed the Emirate’s economy over the last 10 years.

A huge property-led boom saw money pile into infrastructure and construction projects like the Palm Jumeirah or the soon-to-be-completed 810 meter Burj Dubai tower that will dwarf any building on earth.
Building the world’s tallest building has always been viewed by investors as a sign that a local economy is about to head south. Dubai World, the most indebted of Dubai’s state-sponsored companies, owes $60 billion of which $22 billion must be refinanced by 2011.
Dubai World and Dubai’s authorities have been able to raise this kind of money in the first place due to implicit support of its oil rich neighbor Abu Dhabi.
Dubai has very few energy resources and raises little money via income tax due to its competitive tax policies. The state has consistently run deficits and the Emirate's growth has therefore been funded via the money markets.
Dubai is one of 7 Emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi, with huge energy reserves and a sovereign wealth fund thought to be worth $630 billion, is the richest of them.
Its banks are major creditors of Dubai and its companies, but news that they are no longer willing to keep buying or refinancing Dubai’s major company’s debt shocked global markets.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 01:02:00 28 Nov 2009LinksList Documentid: 34170428
Dubai Debt Delays Revive Fear of Crisis
Dubai Woes Just a 'Blip': Strategist
Tips: Don't Fret Too Much About Dubai
This week two of Dubai’s biggest companies, Dubai World and Nakheel asked creditors for a debt standstill that has spooked investors across the world.
Bad News for Creditors
After an Abu Dhabi-led bailout of Dubai in February of $10 billion, some investors where convinced that more money would keep flowing.
It is not a matter of whether Abu Dhabi can bailout Dubai but a question of the terms under which they will be willing to do so and what impact this will have on other creditors.
Global banking giants like HSBC , Standard Chartered
all have significant exposure to the UAE, of which some will be exposed directly to Dubai.
Analysts at Commerzbank in London believe these companies and others are now facing losses of up to 50 percent on their investments. Luis Costa from the EMEA debt team believes Abu Dhabi will come to the rescue, but only on terms that suit it and its lenders.
“Help will probably be selective. It does not necessarily mean principals will be fully paid here. As a matter of fact, given the levels of haircut in other recent emerging markets restructuring deals, a 40-50 percent destruction of principal (haircut) would not be absurd at all,” Costa said.
So bad news for creditors; and expect those from outside the UAE to get the worst of any restructuring of debt.
Luis Costa has warned in the past that 2010 and 2011 will be classic years of 'global debt restructuring' at various levels like corporate, quasi-sovereign and sovereign credits.
How Dubai and its rich neighbor Abu Dhabi handle this restructuring could give the bond markets a clear signal of how other highly indebted countries, firms and state-backed firms, go about doing the same thing over the next 2 years.
© 2009 CNBC.com

WHY NEVER LISTEN TO NEWS?LOOK AT ABOVE...WHY DID THE DEFAULT ONLY HAPPEN NOW?EVERYTHING LINKED TO TECHNICALS..LOOK AT THE VIX...15mth low and hit round number 20..

as same as subprime...IDIOTS TELL ME THAT SUBPRIME STARTED IN 2007,SOME EVEN TELL ME LEHMANN STARTED THE SUBPRIME.
WHAHAHAHA i hate to talk to ignorant idiots,dont know and yet act smart
proof--wikipedia--

2004-2007: Many financial institutions issued large amounts of debt and invested in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), believing that house prices would continue to rise and that households would keep up on mortgage payments.[59]
2004: U.S. homeownership rate peaks with an all time high of 69.2 percent.[60]
Following example of Countrywide Financial, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, many lenders adopt automated loan approvals that critics argued were not subjected to appropriate review and documentation according to good mortgage underwriting standards.[61] In 2007, 40% of all subprime loans resulted from automated underwriting.[62][63]Mortgage fraud by borrowers increases.[64]
HUD ratcheted up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac affordable-housing goals for next four years, from 50 percent to 56 percent, stating they lagged behind the private market; they purchased $175 billion in 2004—44 percent of the market; from 2004 to 2006, they purchased $434 billion in securities backed by subprime loans[18]
October:SEC effectively suspends net capital rule for five firms—Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Freed from government imposed limits on the debt they can assume, they levered up 20, 30 and even 40 to 1, buying massive amounts of mortgage-backed securities and other risky investments.[65]
2005:
January: Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich raises concerns over subprime lending practices, says mortgage brokers might not have incentives for careful underwriting and that that portion of the subprime industry was veering close to a breakdown, that it's possible that it is a bubble but that the housing market did not qualify for specific monetary policy treatment at this point[66].
February: The Office of Thrift Supervision implements new rules that allow savings and loans with over $1 billion in assets to meet their CRA obligations without investing in local communities, cutting availability of subprime loans.[67]
Fall 2005: Booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide drop 3.3 percent. [68]
2006:
May: The subprime lender Ameriquest announces it will cut 3,800 Jobs, close its 229 retail branches and rely instead on the Web[69]
May: Merit Financial Inc, based in Kirkland, Washington, files for bankruptcy and closes its doors, firing all but 80 of its 410 employees; Merit’s marketplace decline about 40% and sales are not bringing in enough revenue to support overhead.[54]
August: U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier.[70]
[edit] 2007
See also: Financial crisis of 2007–2009, List of writedowns due to subprime crisis, and List of bankrupt or acquired banks during the subprime mortgage crisis
Home sales continue to fall. The plunge in existing-home sales is the steepest since 1989. In Q1/2007, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index records first year-over-year decline in nationwide house prices since 1991.[71] The subprime mortgage industry collapses, and a surge of foreclosure activity (twice as bad as 2006)[72] and rising interest rates threaten to depress prices further as problems in the subprime markets spread to the near-prime and prime mortgage markets.[73]
January 3: Ownit Mortgage Solutions Inc. files for Chapter 11. Records show that Ownit Mortgage Solutions owed Merrill Lynch around $93 million at the time of filing.[54]
February 5: Mortgage Lenders Network USA Inc., the country's 15th largest subprime lender with $3.3 billion in loans funded in third quarter 2006, files for Chapter 11.[54]
February–March: Subprime industry collapse; several subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale.[74] These include Accredited Home Lenders Holding, New Century Financial, DR Horton and Countrywide Financial [75]
March: The value of USA subprime mortgages was estimated at $1.3 trillion as of March 2007.[76]
March 6: In a speech before the Independent Community Bankers of America's Annual Convention and Techworld, Honolulu, Hawaii, Ben Bernanke, quoting Alan Greenspan, warns that the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were a source of "systemic risk" and suggest legislation to head off a possible crisis[77]
April 2: New Century Financial, largest U.S. subprime lender, files for chapter 11 bankruptcy.[78]
April 3: According to CNN Money, business sources report lenders made $640 billion in subprime loans in 2006, nearly twice the level 3 years earlier; subprime loans amounted to about 20 percent of the nation's mortgage lending and about 17 percent of home purchases; financial firms and hedge funds likely own more than $1 trillion in securities backed by subprime mortgage; about 13 percent of subprime loans are now delinquent, more than five times the delinquency rate for home loans to borrowers with top credit; more than 2 percent of subprime loans had foreclosure proceedings start in the fourth quarter.[78]
April 18: Freddie Mac fined $3.8 million by the Federal Election Commission as a result of illegal campaign contributions, much of it to members of the United States House Committee on Financial Services which oversees Freddie Mac.[79]
June 7: Bear Stearns & Co informs investors in two of its funds, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and the High-Grade Structured Credit Fund that it was halting redemptions.[80]
June 20: Merrill Lynch seized $800 million in assets from two Bear Stearns hedge funds that were involved in securities backed by subprime loans.[81].
June 25: FDIC Chair Shelia Bair cautioned against the more flexible risk management standards of the Basel II international accord and lowering bank capital requirements generally: "There are strong reasons for believing that banks left to their own devices would maintain less capital -- not more -- than would be prudent. The fact is, banks do benefit from implicit and explicit government safety nets...In short, regulators can't leave capital decisions totally to the banks."[82]
July 19: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 14,000 for the first time in its history.[83]
August: worldwide "credit crunch" as subprime mortgage backed securities are discovered in portfolios of banks and hedge funds around the world, from BNP Paribas to Bank of China. Many lenders stop offering home equity loans and "stated income" loans. Federal Reserve injects about $100 billion into the money supply for banks to borrow at a low rate.[citation needed]
August 6:American Home Mortgage Investment Corporation (AHMI) files Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company expects to see up to a $60 million loss for the first quarter 2007[84].
August 7: Numerous quantitative long/short equity hedge funds suddenly begin experiencing unprecendented losses as a result of what is believed to be liquidations by some managers eager to access cash during the liquidity crisis. It highlights one of the first examples of the contagion effect of the subprime crisis spilling over into a radically different business area. [85].
August 8: Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC, Milwaukee, Wisconsin) announces it will discontinue its purchase of Radian Group [86] after suffering a billion-dollar loss[87] of its investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization (C-BASS, New York]).[88]
August 9: French investment bank BNP Paribas suspends three investment funds that invested in subprime mortgage debt[89], due to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" [90] in the market. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors, as subprime assets went bad, due to defaults by subprime mortgage payers.[91] This announcement compels the intervention of the European Central Bank, pumping 95 billion euros into the European banking market.[92][93]
August 10: Central banks coordinate efforts to increase liquidity for first time since the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. [94] The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) injects a combined 43 billion USD, the European Central Bank (ECB) 156 billion euros (214.6 billion USD), and the Bank of Japan 1 trillion Yen (8.4 billion USD). Smaller amounts come from the central banks of Australia, and Canada. [94]
August 14: Sentinel Management Group suspends redemptions for investors and sells off $312 million worth of assets; three days later Sentinel files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. [95] US and European stock indices continue to fall. [96]
August 15: The stock of Countrywide Financial, which is the largest mortgage lender in the United States, falls around 13% on the New York Stock Exchange after Countrywide says foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies have risen to their highest levels since early 2002. [97]
August 16: Countrywide Financial Corporation, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, narrowly avoids bankruptcy by taking out an emergency loan of $11 billion from a group of banks. [98]
August 17: the Federal Reserve cuts the discount rate by half a percent to 5.75% from 6.25% while leaving the federal funds rate unchanged in an attempt to stabilize financial markets. [99]
August 31: President Bush announces a limited bailout of U.S. homeowners unable to pay the rising costs of their debts.[100] Ameriquest, once the largest subprime lender in the U.S., goes out of business;[101]
September 1–3: Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY addressed the housing recession that jeopardizes U.S. growth. Several critics argue that the Fed should use regulation and interest rates to prevent asset-price bubbles, [102] blamed former Fed-chairman Alan Greenspan's low interest rate policies for stoking the U.S. housing boom and subsequent bust [103], and Yale University economist Robert Shiller warned of possible home price declines of fifty percent.[104]
September 4: The Libor rate rises to its highest level since December 1998, at 6.7975%, above the Bank of England's 5.75% base rate.[105][106]
September 6: the Federal Reserve adds $31.25 billion in temporary reserves (loans) to the US money markets which has to be repaid in two weeks. [107]
September 7: US Labor Department announces that non-farm payrolls fell by 4,000 in August 2007, the first month of negative job growth since August 2003, due in large part to problems in the housing and credit markets.[108]
September 17: Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said "we had a bubble in housing" [109] and warns of "large double digit declines" in home values "larger than most people expect."
September 18: The Fed lowers interest rates by half a point (0.5%) in an attempt to limit damage to the economy from the housing and credit crises.[110]
September 28: Television finance personality Jim Cramer warns Americans on The Today Show, "don't you dare buy a home—you'll lose money," causing a furor among Realtors. [111]
September 30: Affected by the spiraling mortgage and credit crises, Internet banking pioneer NetBank goes bankrupt [112], and the Swiss bank UBS announces that it lost US$690 million in the third quarter.[113]
October 5: Merrill Lynch announces a US$5.5 billion loss as a consequence of the subprime crisis, which is revised to $8.4 billion on October 24, a sum that credit rating firm Standard & Poor's called "startling". [114]
October 10: Hope Now Alliance is created by the US Government and private industry to help some sub-prime borrowers. [115]
October 15–17: A consortium of U.S. banks backed by the U.S. government announces a "super fund" of $100 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities whose mark-to-market value plummeted in the subprime collapse.[116] Both Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson express alarm about the dangers posed by the bursting housing bubble; Paulson says "the housing decline is still unfolding and I view it as the most significant risk to our economy. … The longer housing prices remain stagnant or fall, the greater the penalty to our future economic growth."[117]
October 31: Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%.
November 1: Federal Reserve injects $41B into the money supply for banks to borrow at a low rate. The largest single expansion by the Fed since $50.35B on September 19, 2001.
November 15: Financial Accounting Standards Board "Fair Value Measurements" standards upgrade the quality of financial reporting through greater transparency. [118][119] However, this "mark-to-market" accounting may exaggerate the loss in value of an asset, as shown on balance sheets, and trigger a cascade of unnecessary financial losses. [120]
December 6: President Bush announces a plan to voluntarily and temporarily freeze the mortgages of a limited number of mortgage debtors holding adjustable rate mortgages (ARM). He also asked Members Of Congress to: 1. pass legislation to modernize the FHA. 2. temporarily reform the tax code to help homeowners refinance during this time of housing market stress. 3. pass funding to support mortgage counseling. 4. pass legislation to reform Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. [121].
December 24: A consortium of banks officially abandons the U.S. government-supported "super-SIV" mortgage crisis bail-out plan announced in mid-October,[122] citing a lack of demand for the risky mortgage products on which the plan was based, and widespread criticism that the fund was a flawed idea that would have been difficult to execute.[122]

SINCE HOUSING ALREADY FELL IN USA IN 2006, WHY DID THE STOCK MARKET KEEP ON GOING UP???
TO TRAP IDIOTS LAH AS STOCK MARKET EASIEST TO PUSH UP OR DOWN

SUBPRIME NEVER HAPPEN IN 2007 AUGUST ONLY..YOU LISTEN TO NEWS U SURE DIE BIG AND DONT KNOW WHY YOU DIE

CLOSE UP VIEW ABOVE

REMEMBER MY TIP---USE MM LEE AS THE REVERSE INDICATOR!!!
for those who just join my blog--i shall refresh your memory NEVER TO LISTEN TO NEWS..
u can see this research i have done for u all in my april 2009 archive.

so many idiots read papers, watch the useless 10pm news,and do the wrong things at the wrong time...when mm lee says golden era,some idiots came n tell me wonderful shitty targets--sti 5000, sti 8000???

then when mm lee is very downcast---many idiots came and tell me sti 1200, sti 800

THE FANCIFUL RANGE OF IDIOTS STI IS SO HUGE ??800 TO 8000???

CASE 1:idiots miss the boat,say sti 800

The reverse indicator works Again!!!"Full recovery at least 2 to 3 years away Or it could take up to six years; export model is still the best, says MM. -->Sat, Mar 21, 2009AsiaOne By Clarissa Oon

SINGAPORE will take two to three years to bounce back from the recession - and this is the optimistic scenario that assumes the United States recovers next year.The pessimistic forecast? Five to six years, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, who spoke last night at the launch of an alumni complex at the National University of Singapore (NUS).MM Lee, who has been saying that Singapore's recovery hinges on that of the US, believes that the American economy is 'fundamentally sound'. Its big companies such as General Motors and Chrysler are 'sound' despite their requests for further government aid.These are edited extracts from Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's dialogue with the National University of Singapore Society:On Singapore's baby's dearth and import of foreigners:THIRTY-THREE per cent of Singapore men don't marry. I don't know why. They are happy with singlehood. They are happy with relationships. Relationships carry no burden. Is that good for society? I don't think so...Without new citizens and permanent residents, we are going to be the last of the Mohicans. We will disappear. Fortunately our standard of living and quality of life can attract people, but it creates problems for us.We get feedback: 'I go to the kopitiam and the fellow there doesn't speak English.' But if he wasn't doing the cleaning, and the owner hadn't brought in the cooks, that kopitiam would've gone out of business."WHAT WAS THE VALUE OF STI AT MARCH 20TH? as march 21st was a saturday...20-Mar-09STI close at 1,596.92NOW at april 11th??1828
Posted by trading guru at 10:43 PM 0 comments
Reactions:

CASE 2:SO MANY IDIOTS I KNOW JUMP IN AND BUY STOCKS--SAY STI 5000 TO 8000

Golden Period Man:the reverse indicator works..LOOK AT THE DATE... JUST BEFORE THE SUBPRIME... SO ACCURATE..


Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee

FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it. -->Aaron LowSun, Jul 08, 2007The Straits Times

FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it.Investors from developed countries are pouring money into the region and Singapore is enjoying good economic growth and social development.Economic giant China is pulling in foreign investments of US$70 billion (S$106 billion) and India, US$10 billion a year. Foreign direct investments here have maintained at about S$6 billion to S$7 billion.The stock markets of some Asean countries have risen by an average of 48 per cent. Asian current accounts are running surpluses with reserves doubling since 2003 to US$2,500 billion.'If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years,' he said.The key is having a good government which will get its policies right, to encourage economic growth.Singapore's economic growth this year will be around 5 per cent to 6 per cent - 'not bad' for a maturing economy with a per capita income of over US$25,000, he said at a Tanjong Pagar GRC event in Ngee Ann City's civic plaza.'Once you have growth, all problems can be managed. When you have no growth and you have unemployment and no jobs, then all problems become intractable,' he said.Mr Lee told the sizeable crowd, many of them younger Singaporeans, that they were luckier than him when he was a young man.'You got the best schools, technical colleges. Nobody is deprived of an education in Singapore and you can go abroad if you do well with bursaries and scholarships.''He had this message for those in their teens and early 20s: 'You're a generation that is especially blessed. You have ahead of you 10, 15, 20 years.'Singapore was able to push ahead when China and India adopted wrong economic policies. Although they have recovered and are growing strongly, Singapore is still ahead 'and our job is to stay ahead, and I believe we can'.Mr Lee said Singapore is in this enviable position today because it had taken 'painful and unpopular measures' after the 1997 Asian financial crisis to get the economy into shape.The data tells the story: some 9.7 million visitors came here last year; unemployment is at a low 2.9 per cent and 49,000 jobs were created between January and March.More important, he said, the Government has revised its vision of Singapore - to turn it into a city with a lively night life, a more liberal arts and entertainment scene, the building of the two integrated resorts and the introduction of Formula 1 racing here next year.'I believe you're going to see a transformation in Singapore. It'll be the most vibrant lively city in this part of the world. And I believe in the next five years, we'll see it evolve.'aaronl@sph.com.sg

CASE 3:SOME IDIOTS EVEN DARE ARGUE WITH ME THAT SUBPRIME STARTED IN OCT 2009(just added today,other than case 1 and case 2 which i said in april posts)
i shall refresh their memory that subprime started just less than one month after MM LEE SAYS SINGAPORE IN GOLDEN PERIOD

downloaded from wikipedia--timeframe of subprime--

August 2007: worldwide "credit crunch" as subprime mortgage backed securities are discovered in portfolios of banks and hedge funds around the world, from BNP Paribas to Bank of China. Many lenders stop offering home equity loans and "stated income" loans. Federal Reserve injects about $100 billion into the money supply for banks to borrow at a low rate.[citation needed]
August 6:American Home Mortgage Investment Corporation (AHMI) files Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company expects to see up to a $60 million loss for the first quarter 2007[84].
August 7: Numerous quantitative long/short equity hedge funds suddenly begin experiencing unprecendented losses as a result of what is believed to be liquidations by some managers eager to access cash during the liquidity crisis. It highlights one of the first examples of the contagion effect of the subprime crisis spilling over into a radically different business area. [85].
August 8: Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC, Milwaukee, Wisconsin) announces it will discontinue its purchase of Radian Group [86] after suffering a billion-dollar loss[87] of its investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization (C-BASS, New York]).[88]
August 9: French investment bank BNP Paribas suspends three investment funds that invested in subprime mortgage debt[89], due to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" [90] in the market. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors, as subprime assets went bad, due to defaults by subprime mortgage payers.[91] This announcement compels the intervention of the European Central Bank, pumping 95 billion euros into the European banking market.[92][93]
August 10: Central banks coordinate efforts to increase liquidity for first time since the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. [94] The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) injects a combined 43 billion USD, the European Central Bank (ECB) 156 billion euros (214.6 billion USD), and the Bank of Japan 1 trillion Yen (8.4 billion USD). Smaller amounts come from the central banks of Australia, and Canada. [94]
August 14: Sentinel Management Group suspends redemptions for investors and sells off $312 million worth of assets; three days later Sentinel files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. [95] US and European stock indices continue to fall. [96]
August 15: The stock of Countrywide Financial, which is the largest mortgage lender in the United States, falls around 13% on the New York Stock Exchange after Countrywide says foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies have risen to their highest levels since early 2002. [97]
August 16: Countrywide Financial Corporation, the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, narrowly avoids bankruptcy by taking out an emergency loan of $11 billion from a group of banks. [98]

THIS IS HOW IT ENDED ON FRIDAY,27TH NOV 2009
--look at how artificially the VIX is pushed up, compared to the falls in the stock market..
EXACTLY SAME AS OCT 30TH 2009---where vix is pushed up from 24.76 to 30.69 in ONE DAY-- oct 30th 2009,sp500 fell from 1066 to 1036 in a day--

THIS TECHNIQUE AS I TOLD BRO TOH CHWEE PENG EARLIER IN THE MORNING OVER THE PHONE IS CALLED RAMPING THE VIX UP TO ALLOW US STOCK MARKET MORE ROOM TO RISE...

i speak with evidence..it is the same bloody trick again..PUI!

MAJOR U.S. MARKET INDEXES

DOW
10309.92
-154.48
-1.48%
Dow Jones Industrial Average

S&P
1091.49
-19.14
-1.72%
S&P 500 Index


NAS
2138.44
-37.61
-1.73%
Nasdaq Composite


VIX
24.74
4.26
+20.8%
CBOE Volatility Index

i am going in 500K worth at the sixth time testing the resistance trendline--GODSEND MONEY COMING....if wrong, i will go in 1 million worth at the seventh time.
I WILL WHACK THIS BLOODY RESISTANCE TRENDLINE,or i will not call zack ong
GODSEND MONEY COMING!!!!!

MERCATOR TODAY 25TH NOV 2009 IS FORCED SELLING..
THOSE IDIOTS WHO WENT IN ON CONTRA ON 18TH NOV 2009 ARE FORCED TO SELL...
todAY YOU SHOULD BUY MERCATOR

THERE ARE A LOT MORE SECRETS OF THE STOCK MARKET I HAVE KEPT FOR MYSELF...

HAHAHAHA attend my lessons and i will share with you........

PLEASE DONT TELL ME NEWS..I CANT BE BOTHERED TO KNOW WHAT happenED

as i already know the FUTURE

I AM DAMN FRUSTRATED AT IDIOTS TELLING ME THAT SHANGHAI PLUNGE TODAY BECAUSE OF RATE HIKES...THESE IDIOTS NEVER LOOK AT CHARTS AND ANYHOW SHOOT OFF...oh please!!!!!!!
I SHALL RECAP SOME OUTDATED NEWS TO REFRESH YOUR MEMORY HOW USELESS NEWS CAN BE....

Chinese stock markets sink despite rate cut
Rowan Callick, China correspondent
From: The Australian
September 17, 2008 12:00AM
EVEN China's first interest rate cut in six years could not stop the country's share markets sinking yesterday in response to the despair on Wall Street.
The Shanghai stock exchange's benchmark index fell by 4.47 per cent, crashing past the 2000 points barrier to close at 1986.64.
The market is thus worth less than a third of its value at its peak in mid-October last year, when it reached 6395.76. This marks the most rapid decline of any major market, even in such an internationally gloomy year.
The People's Bank of China, the central bank, had signalled on Monday evening -- the day was a public holiday in the Chinese world, for the Mid Autumn Festival -- a new priority: stimulating growth.
Fighting inflation -- which reached 8.7 per cent in February -- and "overheating" had been its previous focus, as it increased interest rates six times in 2007.
But the PBOC cut its benchmark interest rate by 27 basis points on Monday to help stimulate the economy, to 7.2 per cent, and also cut financial institutions' reserve ratio requirement by one percentage point to 16.5 per cent from September 25 -- although this will not apply to the "pillar banks" that dominate the market.
It had increased the reserve ratio five times earlier this year, as part of the monetary strategy to rein in what the Government had viewed as excessive investment.
Now, however, overall economic growth is slowing more than Beijing would like -- from 11.9 per cent in 2007 to 10.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2008, to 10.1 per cent in the second quarter.
And inflation now appears more contained -- the consumer price index rose by just 4.9 per cent in August.
Goldman Sachs commented on Monday night's monetary moves: "We see these adjustments as a positive step, given the unprecedented uncertainties in the international financial markets and rising downside risks in the domestic economy, in particular the real estate sector."
But Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan's chairman, China Equities, said: "Monday's asymmetric rate cuts -- the one-year lending rate was cut, while deposit rates were left unchanged -- sparked investor concern about the impact of narrower interest margins on the earnings outlook for Chinese banks."
Shi Lei, a Bank of China analyst in Beijing, told Reuters that the central bank shift was "mainly a signal for the stock market", with the 2000 points barrier "a key level where authorities feel they need to come in and help the market".
If that was indeed the prime motive, it didn't work. And there is no guarantee that the bottom has been reached yet.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong also plunged yesterday, to its lowest level in nearly two years. But China's authorities retain control over the exchange rate, and the yuan is expected to be kept stable this week, in part to deter speculation that might arise from the changes in the bank settings.
Worryingly for Australia, commodities are also suffering as China catches the depressed international mood. Copper and aluminium each fell in Shanghai yesterday by their full 4 per cent daily limit.
Energy companies, important economic partners for Australia, have been suffering -- though falls in commodity prices should help them, especially since they suffer from government-imposed price caps on the other end.
The share price in Hong Kong of Chinese giant Shenhua Energy fell 12 per cent yesterday. And Huaneng Group, China's biggest power generating corporation, said yesterday that it was losing money despite two government-sanctioned tariff rises, by a total of 10 per cent, in the past two months. This is principally due to price rises for coal, which fuels about 80 per cent of China's electricity.

WHO SAYS THE STOCK MARKET MUST GO UP BECAUSE OF RATE CUTS?
WHO SAYS THE STOCK MARKET MUST GO DOWN BECAUSE OF RATE RISES?


Stocks up despite interest rate rise
Thursday,August 23,2007 Posted: 22:18 BJT(18 GMT)
From:Chinaview Article type:Reproduced
BEIJING, Aug. 23 -- The Shanghai stock market edged up yesterday despite the unexpected announcement of an interest rate hike by the central bank late on Tuesday. The People's Bank of China raised the one-year benchmark deposit rate by 27 basis points to 3.6 percent and the one-year lending rate by 18 basis points to 7.02 percent, effective from yesterday. Analysts said the rate rise will not have a negative impact on the stock market, which has plentiful liquidity. China still faces the problem of liquidity inflows, backed by the expectation of currency appreciation, which was further strengthened by the narrowing of the interest rate between the United States and China. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent to close at 4980.07, yet another new high, with 555 out of 901 stocks closing higher. Turnover on the Shanghai bourse amounted to 162.2 billion yuan. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index jumped by 1.68 percent to close at 1398.37, led by large-cap stocks. Meanwhile, the CSI 300, the underlying indicator of the upcoming index futures, surged 1.59 percent to break through the key barrier of 5000 points yesterday, closing at 5051.69. The CSI 300 medical index has surged the most, 193.49 percent, since the beginning of this year, followed by the CSI 300 raw materials index's jump of 185.06 percent, according to China Securities Index Co Ltd. Financial and real estate stocks contributed 28.93 percent of the CSI 300 index. "Plentiful liquidity is continuing to drive up the stock market. A small adjustment to the interest rate may not be able to solve the problem of excessive investment and liquidity in China's economy," an Orient Securities report said. "The negative interest rate may continue to lure investors to move money to the stock market. Blue-chip stocks, which were largely held by mutual funds, are expected to go up," said the report. Lin Wenjun, chief economist at Fullgoal Fund Management Co Ltd, said: "We are still positive about the A-share market, and the interest rate rise won't change our investment portfolio." Wu Feng, an analyst at TX Investment Consulting Co Ltd, said yesterday that the stock market may be volatile at 5000 points, a mark set by many institutional investors as a target point. "It is obvious that the stock market is rising at a slower pace and will be more volatile when it approaches 5000 points," he said. Stocks in the alcohol and travel sectors performed well. Wuliangye Group, China's largest liquor producer, jumped 9.76 percent to close at 35.98 yuan. Beijing Capital Co Ltd jumped to the daily limit to close at 15.17 yuan while Shenzhen Century Plaza also surged 10 percent

i think that idiots must have forgotten past news.today, so many people tell me that shanghai plunge today BECAUSE of interest rates rise..
WHAT A JOKE!!!
HAVE NOT IDIOTS LEARNT ENOUGH FROM THE STOCK MARKET NEVER TO TRUST NEWS?

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IS A FORE RUNNER OF THE WORLD MARKETS--

there will be an impending correction of about 20 pc when --

1. the rising wedge distance to the CONVERGING point lies 3 to 4 months from NOW,nov 21 2009--JAN/FEB 2010

2. shanghai experienced a 25 percent drop in august 2009,add a 5months (october 2008- shanghai bottom,march 2009-us mkt bottom) yield JANUARY 2010

THIS IS CALLED TIAN SHI DI LI....

TIMING AND TARGET BOTH ACHIEVED--EUREKA!!

I SAW A VERY CLEAR PICTURE NOW...................................

PREDICTION SAID ON NOV 21ST 2009

EVERYTHING COINCIDES---

1.RISING WEDGE NARROWS AT 1240

2.INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS BROKEN in july 2009

TARGET calculated earlier-- 1248

3. fibonnacci at 1228

4. 2ND LEG UP TARGET ALSO CALCULATED IN MY EARLIER POSTS,--ALSO 1248

WATCH OUT FOR 1230 TO 1248--SHORT BIG TIME at 1250+

PREDICTED ON 21ST NOV 2009

DJ TAKING STOCK: Solid Singapore IPO Market Overlooked (2009/11/20 16:51PM)

By Kirsty Green
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Given Singapore''s recent track record on initial public offerings, it seems a little odd that some local companies are turning to the Hong Kong market to try and unlock value.
While the Singapore market may lack the glamour of its regional rivals, when it comes to IPOs, it''s no lame duck. In the last three months, Singapore has seen every single IPO rise on its debut.
That''s a record to turn major regional rival Hong Kong green with envy. Yet Singapore companies still turn to Hong Kong in the hope of injecting a little fizz into their share prices.
But they may find it is a trickier affair these days. Take palm oil giant Wilmar, whose planned Hong Kong IPO of its China business has been stalled for months while the company monitors stock market conditions.
In contrast, property developer CapitaLand''s decision to float its shopping malls unit, CapitaMalls Asia, in Singapore looks shrewd. The Singapore market appears to have had no problem absorbing what will be its largest IPO in over a decade. In fact, the market has lapped it up.
The CapitaMalls Asia IPO, which will raise up to S$2.8 billion, was quick to come to market, priced near the midpoint of the planned range and was upsized amid strong demand from institutional investors. All the signs are that the IPO will be another Singapore success story with trading in the stock due to start on November 25.
The business that Wilmar plans to float is a China one, so it could be argued it makes geographical sense to list in Hong Kong. But the majority of CapitaMalls Asia''s shopping malls are also in China, so it too could perhaps have gone down the Hong Kong route. In hindsight, its decision not to looks a wise one.
It''s fair to say that Singapore has less IPO issuance to absorb than Hong Kong, which can help a company attract more interest for its offering. There are also simply fewer companies listed in Singapore, so a new entrant can frame itself as a unique play.
Analysts say that this means Hong Kong investors are a little more choosy compared with their Singapore counterparts. And Singapore investors also tend to be less cynical and trust that IPOs will be attractively priced.

my own comments--(remember chartered semiCON??)

Singapore''s receptive investors are nothing new. In the first three months of this year, when rights issues rather than IPOs were all the rage, the Singapore market digested over US$3 billion worth of rights issues, according to Dealogic. That was two-thirds of the entire equity issuance in the Asia ex-Japan region.
With Singapore''s quietly buzzing IPO market, maybe local companies should look on their own doorstep first when they want to tap the market.
(Kirsty Green covers Singapore''s stock market for Dow Jones Newswires. Previously based in London, she spent four years as an equity research analyst at JPMorgan and HSBC. She can be reached on 65 6415 4158 or by email at kirsty.green@dowjones.com)
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkbackAsia@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today''s most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=gyIeLruqfDw8oTeTiQmhBg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 20, 2009 03:51 ET (08:51 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

NOW YANLORD CHARTS

MAY 18TH YANLORD CHARTS

look at my post at may 18th 2009--yanlord..DIDNT IT HappeN?

sideways consolidation??

who are the idiots who bought at 2.89 dollars?

TODAY MY TOPIC OF MY LECTURE IS
---WHY MERCATOR is my darling for 2010????
LET ME SHARE WITH YOU PAST EVIDENCES

from shares book,available from bookstores

POINT ONE--EXCELLENT COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS
1.mercator never suffer losses in subprime crises,only plunge in profits.look at NOL---HEAVY losses,NOL during bull run pathetic profit margins
evidence--
a.Oct 28, 2009
Mercator Singapore Reports A Net Profit Of USD 20.2 Million For First Half 2010 (1HFY2010)
b. May 14, 2009
Mercator Singapore Reports 45% Growth In Net Profits To US$ 75.8 Million For FY2009
c. May 07, 2008
Mercator Reports Three-Fold Jump In FY2008 Net Profit To US$52.2 Million, Supported By Growing Fleet And Buoyant Dry Bulk Shipping Demand

2. Good dividend play
a.Sep 23, 2009
The First And Final Dividend Of 1.16 Singapore Cents Per Share One Tier Tax Exempt For The Year Ended 31 March 2009 - Allotment And Issue Of New Shares And Payment In Cash

from mercator website-www.mlindia.com

1.Ownership Structure

Shareholding pattern of Shares as on September 30, 2009.
Sr. No.
Category
No. of Holders
No. of Shares
%to Capital
1
Promoters' Holding
10
89524066
37.94
2
Institutional Investors
0
0
0.00
3
Mutual Funds / UTI
13
12154228
5.15
4
Banks, FIs, Insurance Companies
6
1528045
0.65
5
FIIs
42
43673589
18.51
6
Private Corporate Bodies
2479
23811827
10.09
7
Indian Public
98007
62221838
26.37
8
NRI's / OCB's
1813
2543585
1.08
9
Other Non Promoter Directors
8
474895
0.20

Total
102378
235932073
100.00

Mutual Funds invested in this company
Scheme
% of asset size
Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Midcap - Dividend
2.32
Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Midcap - Growth
1.71
LIC MF Unit Linked Insurance Scheme - Dividend
1.44
LIC MF Balanced - Plan - Gr - Growth
1.39
LIC MF Balanced - Plan - Div - Dividend
1.39

2. mercator wins awards--

Mercator Lines (Singapore) limited wins "Singapore Corporate Awards"
Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a subsidiary of Mercator Lines Limited, has won Singapore Corporate Awards 2009 (SCA), in two categories viz; Best Annual Report Award (Bronze) in the "$300 million to less than $1 billion market capitalisation'' category as well as the Best Annual Report Award (Silver) in the "Newly-Listed Companies'' category.
Mumbai, Maharashtra, April 30, 2009 /India PRwire/ -- Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a subsidiary of Mercator Lines Limited, has won Singapore Corporate Awards 2009 (SCA), in two categories viz; Best Annual Report Award (Bronze) in the "$300 million to less than $1 billion market capitalisation'' category as well as the Best Annual Report Award (Silver) in the "Newly-Listed Companies'' category. The award was presented to Mr. Shalabh Mittal, Managing Director and CEO, Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited on April 23rd 2009.
Historically, it is for the first time that an Indian owned company has received such recognition. It has not only boosted company’s image but has also brought India on Singapore’s landscape of corporate governance, industry sources revealed.
This is one of the five awards which make up coveted “Singapore Corporate Awards”, others being the Best Managed Board, Best Chief Executive Officer, Best Chief Financial Officer, and Best Investor Relations. The SCA’s are organised by Singapore’s leading business publication house Business Times and supported by Singapore Exchange; there are several other partners to the organizers; ranging from professional institutions to academia to consulting firms.
The Best Annual Report Award is given on the basis of quality and timely disclosures of financial highlights, Industry report, corporate governance report, risk management reporting and several other factors through two-stage screening process by high powered panel of judges.
“We are delighted that our Singapore subsidiary has won this coveted award in two categories within the first year of their listing, the awards reaffirm Mercator’s commitment towards high corporate governance standards” said Mr H.K.Mittal, Chairman, Mercator Lines Limited. “It’s a matter of great satisfaction and pride that an Indian company’s subsidiary has achieved this honour despite stiff competition in Singapore” concludes Mr Mittal”.
Notes to Editor
Mercator Lines Limited, the second largest private sector shipping company in India (by aggregate fleet tonnage capacity), has global presence through its subsidiaries. The group has diversified interests and is a strong player in Tankers, Bulk Carriers, Dredging, Coal Mining; Logistics and Offshore and presently owns or operates a fleet of 1 Rig; 13 dry carriers; 11 tankers and 4 dredgers. For further information please log onto http://www.mercator.in/ or http://www.mllsg.com/
From: Mitesh M Kapadia, Sentinel Public Relations / Sentinel Advertising Services, B-603, Samajdeep, Near Bhanu Park/Seasons Restaurant, Adukia Road, Off S V Road, Kandivli (W), Mumbai 400 067. INDIA. Tel: (91 22) 28625131/32. Cel: +91 98205 03876. Fax: (022) 28625133.

pt.3

Mercator Lines aims to become a $5 billion company
04 Nov 2009
It all started with an idea floated by a co-passenger in a flight. Harish K. Mittal, owner of India’s second largest private shipping line, does not remember the passenger’s name, but his suggestion on starting a shipping firm way back in the early 1980s stuck in his mind. Mittal, then running a chemical factory in Muzaffarnagar in UttarPradesh, mentioned this idea to Atul Agarwal, who is married to hiswife’s sister. Agarwal was at the time auditing some companies thatincluded a few shipping firms. In 1988, Agarwal mentioned that Mumbai-based Mercator Lines Ltd was onthe block. Mittal, then also into the business of buying ship scrap,did not hesitate. He bought the firm for Rs1.2 crore from theRamchandani family.From Rs65 lakh in 1988, the firm’s revenue increased to Rs2,200 crorein the year ended 31 March. Mercator Lines today runs a fleet of 28vessels, up from three barges in the year Mittal bought the firm.The shipping line, riding high on the wave of India’s economicliberalization since the 1990s, listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange in1993 and has never missed paying a a yearly dividend to shareholders,Mittal says.The 59-year-old entrepreneur now wants to make his firm a $5 billion(around Rs23,550 crore) company, an “ambitious dream,” but notimpossible for a shipping line that reported a revenue of just Rs60crore just five years ago.From a traditional tanker company, Mercator today has a presence inbulk shipping, tanker shipping, dredging, offshore oil exploration andcoal mines.“We have already acquired four coal mines in Indonesia and one inMozambique. We are now looking for acquiring one more in Indonesia.This will enable us to offer a complete logistics package includingcoal, ship and local logistics,” says Mittal, who holds a 1973postgraduate degree in technology from the Indian Institute ofTechnology, Roorkee, then known as the University of Roorkee. A majority of new Indian power projects are eyeing imported coal, mainly from Indonesia, to run their plants.Mittal attributes his success to his management team. An analyst agrees. “Mercator Lines management was always aggressive tograb every opportunity that came before them, be it dredging, coalmines, offshore or dry bulk ships,” says Kapil Yadav, an analyst withdomestic brokerage Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd. Yadav tracks thefirm’s scrip.“The business model of Mercator Lines is to diversify to severalsegments to derisk, while locking in its vessels for long-termcontracts to mitigate the volatility of freight rates,” he says.Mercator Lines has acquired four dredgers and plans to add six more toits portfolio. Indian ports continuously require dredging to keep theirshipping channels deep. State-run Dredging Corp. of India Ltd is unableto meet the entire requirements of the country’s ports. Someinternational dredging companies have set up shop in India to tap themarket potential.“We are very serious about dredging,” says Mittal. “Apart from dredging, we are also upbeat about the offshore sector.” Mercator Lines, as part of a strategy to derisk the cyclical nature ofits core shipping business, entered the offshore drilling business withthe delivery of a Rs1,000 crore jack-up rig. The rig was immediatelydeployed on a three-year contract with state-owned Oil and Natural GasCorp. Ltd through Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.“We are constantly looking for other areas of offshore business,exclusive offshore support vessels. This could be anything, highspecification rigs or other areas,” Mittal says. “Mercator wascontracted two oil blocks under the seventh round of the newexploration licensing policy,” Mittal said.In December 2007, Mercator Lines listed its Singapore-based subsidiaryon the Singapore Stock Exchange and raised over Rs500 crore. Last year, shipping firms were hit by the global economic downturn thatled to a steep decline in world trade and caused freight rates to fall.“Though there are some signs of revival, I think the next two years aregoing to be tough for the shipping sector,” Mittal says. “Ourdiversification model is going to save us during this crisis.” “Though Mercator has done everything to de-risk by diversifying, as ashipping company it will be exposed to volatility since it is acyclical industry,” Dolat’s Yadav says. Mittal, however, remains optimistic. He says all the business segmentsof his firm are growing and he would continue to invest in these.“Nothing stops us from aiming at being a $5 billion company.” Source: Livemint

Rs23550CRORE????
latest at nov 18th 2009
61.90 +4.50 +7.84% 18 Nov, 15:58:43
Volume
5,202,426
Prev Close
57.40
Day's H/L (Rs)
62.90 - 57.20
52wk H/L (Rs)
76.75 - 21.00
Mkt Cap (Rs Cr)
1,460.84

1460 TO 23550????????????????15 times????????????????AHHHHH HUAT AH!!!!!!MERCATOR AT 4.50 SGD???????????????????????????????????

POINT NUMBER 2--BALTIC DRY INDEX HAS ROCKETED, broke june 09 highs--making sure that the economic recovery is intact.

FROM WIKIPEDIA--The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.
Because it provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea," according to The Baltic, "... it provides both a rare window into the highly opaque and diffuse shipping market and an accurate barometer of the volume of global trade -- devoid of political and other agenda concerns

FROM WIKIPEDIA--
Impact of 2008 financial crisis (on BDI)
On 20 May 2008 the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986., though by 4 February 2009 it had recovered a little lost ground, back to 1,316. These low rates moved dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.
By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already increased by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of credit meant the reduction of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of future ship construction was also a problem for shipping companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications for shipyards.This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world's marine commerce.

YET MERCATOR IS PROFITABLE!!!!

POINT NUMBER 3--
MERCATOR IS GOING INTO COAL MINING BUSINESS IN 2010--

from wikipedia also...

Mozambique gold mine
In early 2008, the company's overseas arm, Mercator Lines Singapore Limited, was awarded a coal block in Mozambique. It turned out to be a gold mine with an estimated reserve of 3 billion tonnes of coal. Mercator owns 85% economic interest in the mine and it has a 30-year mining lease. The mining will begin in 2010, and the company will pay $1 per tonne royalty to the Government of Mozambique.

POINT NUMBER 4--STRONG CLIENT BASE--LESSER RISK OF DEFAULT!!!(source--SHARESINVESTOR)

Mercator displays prudence amid shipping slump
Sunday, August 2, 2009 at 6:00pm


Its reliable core group of customers along with prudent risk management equip Mercator Lines to weather the shipping slump. By Ridwan Abbas

It has been a rough few months for dry bulk shipping charterers as the industry grapples with a tight credit market and a slowdown in demand for commodities.

Freight rates have tumbled and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), used as the global benchmark for the cost of shipping commodities, has plunged nearly 100 per cent since June. Vessels which were commanding US$50,000 daily as recently as September are now scraping through at US$4,000 a day rates, according to one analyst.

But Indian bulk shipper Mercator Lines is not hitting the panic button as yet, and with good reason: 73 per cent of its 11 bulk carriers are running on long-term contracts – ranging from one to five years – and have fixed prices locked in. This in turn limits its exposure to the volatile BDI used as a benchmark on the spot market.

“We know that the market can be very volatile and in 2007, we bought four ships Shalabh Mittal, chief executive officer of Mercator Lines. and were very happy that we chartered them out at US$35,000. But by the end of November, we were looking like fools as the market was US$90,000; today it looks fabulous because the market is at around US$6,000 and we’re chartering it for US$35,000,” says Shalabh Mittal, chief executive officer of Mercator Lines.

The company’s prudent risk management strategy, which includes allocating at least 70 per cent of its fleet for long-term charters at fixed rates, has been vindicated in these challenging times.

For the first half of financial year 2008 (FY08)ended September 30, the group registered a 239 per cent increase in profits to US$48 million on the back of an 84 per cent rise in revenue to US$108 million.
Strong customer base
Mercator Lines specialises in the transportation of coal into India from Australia and Indonesia, as well as iron ore from India into China, Japan and South Korea. India accounts for roughly 25 per cent of the group’s revenue, with its biggest customer being blue-chip power utility firm Tata Power. I

n June, the two companies signed a contract worth US$320 million to transport three million tonnes of coal from Indonesia to India, which will require five Panamex vessels to be deployed over four years.

Tata is the major power plant that provides energy to Mumbai and its neighbouring suburbs. Being a key customer, Tata contributed roughly 34 per cent to Mercator’s earnings for financial year 2007 to 2008.

Coal is indeed a major source of energy to the Indian economy with over 54 per cent of domestic power generation coming from coal-fired power plants, according to India’s Ministry of Coal.

Having already invested US$1.2 billion in two Indonesian mines in 2007, recent reports have suggest that Tata Power may be looking for more coal mine deals to increase its power-generating capacity.

DBS Group Research noted that India’s state and private utilities aim to almost double the nation’s generation capacity from 141,000 megawatts to 250,000 megawatts by 2017. It also added that the demand for dry bulk carriers for shipments of thermal coal into India and iron ore out of India should increase as the country’s GDP grows.

Outside India, Mercator also has a welldiversified customer base which includes North China Lines Shipping and Siba Ships of Italy along with Arcelor Mittal, the world’s largest steel producer by revenue.

“We tend to work with not only good names but also end-users type of customers. People like Tata and Arcelor, they’re all power plants or steel plants themselves and they transport iron-ore, they transport coal, they transport steel…even if their volume decreases, they still need these ships to move the cargo out,” says Mr Mittal.
Possible headwinds
The global wheels of trade are beginning to show signs of creaking as worsening market conditions mean that banks are more reluctant to issue Letters of Credit to commodity traders, which is traditionally required to load cargoes for departure at ports.

Slower economic growth for the next year or so would also affect steel production and the subsequent demand for iron ores. While recognising that demand in China and India would clearly dip, Mr Mittal still feels that the situation in these markets “would not be that bad.”

The Asian Development Bank predicted that even if growth in China and India decelerate, both economies are still expected to expand by about 9.5 and 7 per cent respectively in 2009.

Mercator may be buffered from the weak charter rates on the spot market through its fixed cost long-term contracts, but it also means that its rates are at a massive premium compared to other industry players. Hence, isn’t the company worried that its customers may renege on these contracts?

“Yes, but from our experience, we haven’t seen such a thing happen before. You don’t expect names such as Tata Power and Arecelor Mittal to come back and default on their contracts…but the risk will always hang there because the difference in the contract price and market price is dramatic,” says Mr Mittal.
Staying on strategy
Having been fairly profitable in the first six months of FY08, the company is sitting on positive cash flows and has no refinancing obligations for the next five years.

Not surprisingly, Mercator is intent on staying consistent with its strategy. Aside from allocating at least 70 per cent of its ships for long-term fixed rate charters and selecting reputable end-user type customers, Mercator’s ships are only bought against contracts already agreed upon.

“You need to have business in hand; customers in hand or you could have a ship and have nowhere to run it,” says Mr Mittal.

“In good times, it’s very easy to run ships because the demand is very high. But these are testing times so you need your customer base, people who you have a relationship with. You understand their constraints and you can come up with solutions rather than just giving a ship on hire,” he added.

In these challenging times, traditional business principles of prudent risk management and enduring relationships could not be more relevant.
Copyright © SMARTINVESTOR
Smart Investor is available at leading magazine outlets To subscribe, call 6393 9772 or e-mail http://ja-jp.facebook.com/note_redirect.php?note_id=107374509237&h=44da7a487faef5ebef76ea5ff073cb41&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.prosperitypersonal.sg%2Fcommunity%2Fmailto%3Acirculation%40lexicon.com.sg For feedback, e-mail: smartinvestor@lexicon.com.sg

the ABOVE research was done by YOURS TRULY---
havent the thorough research answer your questions on WHY MERCATOR?
WHY 2010?