sp500 trend very clear:
10 wk rise pattern MUSTNT BE IGNORED
1st 10wk rise:
mar9 2009 to may4th week
sp rose 260pts
2nd 10 wk rise:
jul13 to sept 14 2009 week
sp rose 200 points
3rd 10 week rise:
nov2nd to jan4th week
sp rose 120points
feb8 2010 week to apr 12 2010 week
sp rose 160points
now 2nd half:
aug1st to nov1st week
sp rose 190points
now we r in 5th week from nov29th week
rose 80points so far, left around 50-80-120points in last 5weeks
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
Thursday, December 30, 2010
why ave singaporeans liquid assets still lose to ave hker liquid assets by 60pc?
is it due to this?
why bruno lee says major affluent hker able to capitalise on stock market recovery?what about affluent singaporeans????
did these comments make them blur?????????????????
1.
Straits Times (8 July 2007) - Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee
The Straits Times
July 8, 2007
TOP OF THE NEWS
Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee
By Aaron Low
FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it.
Investors from developed countries are pouring money into the region and Singapore is enjoying good economic growth and social development.
Economic giant China is pulling in foreign investments of US$70 billion (S$106 billion) and India, US$10 billion a year. Foreign direct investments here have maintained at about S$6 billion to S$7 billion.
The stock markets of some Asean countries have risen by an average of 48 per cent. Asian current accounts are running surpluses with reserves doubling since 2003 to US$2,500 billion.
'If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years,' he said.
The key is having a good government which will get its policies right, to encourage economic growth.
Singapore's economic growth this year will be around 5 per cent to 6 per cent - 'not bad' for a maturing economy with a per capita income of over US$25,000, he said at a Tanjong Pagar GRC event in Ngee Ann City's civic plaza.
'Once you have growth, all problems can be managed. When you have no growth and you have unemployment and no jobs, then all problems become intractable,' he said.
Mr Lee told the sizeable crowd, many of them younger Singaporeans, that they were luckier than him when he was a young man.
'You got the best schools, technical colleges. Nobody is deprived of an education in Singapore and you can go abroad if you do well with bursaries and scholarships.'
He had this message for those in their teens and early 20s: 'You're a generation that is especially blessed. You have ahead of you 10, 15, 20 years.'
Singapore was able to push ahead when China and India adopted wrong economic policies. Although they have recovered and are growing strongly, Singapore is still ahead 'and our job is to stay ahead, and I believe we can'.
Mr Lee said Singapore is in this enviable position today because it had taken 'painful and unpopular measures' after the 1997 Asian financial crisis to get the economy into shape.
The data tells the story: some 9.7 million visitors came here last year; unemployment is at a low 2.9 per cent and 49,000 jobs were created between January and March.
More important, he said, the Government has revised its vision of Singapore - to turn it into a city with a lively night life, a more liberal arts and entertainment scene, the building of the two integrated resorts and the introduction of Formula 1 racing here next year.
'I believe you're going to see a transformation in Singapore. It'll be the most vibrant lively city in this part of the world. And I believe in the next five years, we'll see it evolve.'
aaronl@sph.com.sg
then TATA COMES THE SUBPRIME START
AUGUST9 2007: SG NATIONAL DAY:
WIKIPEDIA:
August 9: French investment bank BNP Paribas suspends three investment funds that invested in subprime mortgage debt,[97] due to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" [98] in the market. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors, as subprime assets went bad, due to defaults by subprime mortgage payers.[99] This announcement compels the intervention of the European Central Bank, pumping 95 billion euros into the European banking market.[100][101]
then next:
BBC:
Singapore officially in recession
It is Singapore's first recession since 2002
Singapore's economy shrank between July and September, confirming it was the first Asian country in recession in the current financial crisis.
IN MAR 2009....
WHEN MM LEE WAS BEARISH:
Full recovery at least 2 to 3 years away
Mar 21, 2009 - The Straits Times
Clarissa Oon, Senior Political Correspondent
Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share
SINGAPORE will take two to three years to bounce back from the recession - and this is the optimistic scenario that assumes the United States recovers next year. The pessimistic forecast? Five to six years, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew,
who spoke last night at the launch of an alumni complex at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
MM Lee, who has been saying that Singapore's recovery hinges on that of the US, believes that the American economy is 'fundamentally sound'. Its
big companies such as General Motors and Chrysler are 'sound' despite their requests for further government aid.
He said he was reassured by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks last month that the economy would pick up by 2010, once
the government's stimulus package frees up lending to households and businesses.
Also, the same reliance on exports that has put Singapore's economy in the doldrums means that once the world's major economies rebound, 'we are going to bounce back'.
MM Lee took issue with criticisms of Singapore's economic model, such as that from a recent Wall Street Journal editorial which said the Republic needed to refocus on the domestic consumption of goods that are now produced for export.
'Four
million people to sustain industries supplying top-end goods to the world? That's rubbish.' Singapore has no choice but to export, he stressed.
What will further stand Singapore in good stead is its free trade agreements with countries such as the
US, Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand, he added.
With such conditions in place, 'if we don't prosper, we're stupid'.
Mr Lee made these points as he shared his thoughts on what Singapore would become in 25 years time, with some 300 alumni,
students and staff of NUS.
Singapore's prosperity would depend not just on its own efforts, but the state of the world a quarter century from now, he said, offering two possible scenarios.
The optimistic one is that the US and a rising China are
on good terms and there is cooperation between Beijing and its neighbours Japan and South Korea.
In this scenario, Singapore and its Asean neighbours will have banded together and achieved the goal of a single market and production base, because
'sooner or later, all the 10 countries will realise, unless we combine our markets we will be sidelined'.
What would be cause for alarm is if there were a clash between the world's major powers such as the US, China, the European Union and Russia,
creating 'a more dangerous Cold War'.
'This does not make for a prosperous world, there will be more arguments, more suspicion' and Singapore 'will not prosper so much' as a result.
In this pessimistic scenario, the Asean Economic Community would
be 'just a name - people are dragging their feet, never fully commit' and each Asean country would be aligned more closely to the big powers than with each other.
The actual outcome, he concluded, is likely to be somewhere in between the two
scenarios he sketched.
Later, in a dialogue, he was asked what would be a viable economic model for Asia as it emerges from the current crisis.
Smaller places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan will continue to rely on exports, he said.
As
for China and India, while they have the alternative to eventually build up their economies to where they are less dependent on exports, neither country would be able to completely do away with exports, he said.
He was also asked what would happen to
Singapore if some People's Action Party (PAP) politicians break away to form a new party and take over the Government.
'If you have capable people then I'm not worried.'
Integrity is crucial, he added, as are ability, experience and willingness to
do things for the people.
However, he did not believe the country with its small population could sustain a two-party system as the PAP already has 'to scour the whole country to find the quality we now have'.
'You need character, commitment,
drive and (the) ability to connect with people. It's a very tough job.'
I WAS VERY BULLISH.......LOOK AT THE TIMINGS!!!!
Singapore out of recession
Tue, Oct 13, 2009
my paper
THE economy of Singapore grew by an estimated 0.8 per cent in the three months to September from a year ago, reinforcing the country's recovery from recession, official figures showed yesterday.
It was the country's first year-on-year expansion in five quarters and was based on July and August data. The estimate is expected to be revised when the full September numbers are available next month.
'A clear but modest recovery is underway globally, at least for the next three or four quarters,' theMinistry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement.
The Government upgraded its full-year growth forecast to a contraction of 2-2.5 per cent - a significant improvement from the previous estimate of a 4-6 per cent contraction.
'One-off factors such as restocking activities and fiscal stimulus measures will continue to support growth in the near term,' MTI said.
However, it cautioned that economic activity will 'probably remain below pre-crisis levels' because of the drag on demand in the developed economies.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, GDP surged 14.9 per cent following a 22 per cent expansion in the second quarter to June, said MTI. It was the second successive quarter-on-quarter growth period.
'Growth was driven by the continued expansion of biomedical and electronics manufacturing output, and improvements in the trade-related and tourism sectors...on the back of a gradual stabilisation in global economic conditions,' MTI said.
Mr Song Seng Wun, regional economist with CIMB-GK Research, said Singapore was 'firmly out of recession' with GDP expanding in the third quarter.
Singapore sank into recession in the second quarter of last year, hurt by falling demand for its exports in major markets.
MY BEST REVERSE INDICATOR..I WILL TELL MY KIDS IN FUTURE...
REVERSE INDICATOR ALWAYS WORKS!!
is it due to this?
why bruno lee says major affluent hker able to capitalise on stock market recovery?what about affluent singaporeans????
did these comments make them blur?????????????????
1.
Straits Times (8 July 2007) - Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee
The Straits Times
July 8, 2007
TOP OF THE NEWS
Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee
By Aaron Low
FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it.
Investors from developed countries are pouring money into the region and Singapore is enjoying good economic growth and social development.
Economic giant China is pulling in foreign investments of US$70 billion (S$106 billion) and India, US$10 billion a year. Foreign direct investments here have maintained at about S$6 billion to S$7 billion.
The stock markets of some Asean countries have risen by an average of 48 per cent. Asian current accounts are running surpluses with reserves doubling since 2003 to US$2,500 billion.
'If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years,' he said.
The key is having a good government which will get its policies right, to encourage economic growth.
Singapore's economic growth this year will be around 5 per cent to 6 per cent - 'not bad' for a maturing economy with a per capita income of over US$25,000, he said at a Tanjong Pagar GRC event in Ngee Ann City's civic plaza.
'Once you have growth, all problems can be managed. When you have no growth and you have unemployment and no jobs, then all problems become intractable,' he said.
Mr Lee told the sizeable crowd, many of them younger Singaporeans, that they were luckier than him when he was a young man.
'You got the best schools, technical colleges. Nobody is deprived of an education in Singapore and you can go abroad if you do well with bursaries and scholarships.'
He had this message for those in their teens and early 20s: 'You're a generation that is especially blessed. You have ahead of you 10, 15, 20 years.'
Singapore was able to push ahead when China and India adopted wrong economic policies. Although they have recovered and are growing strongly, Singapore is still ahead 'and our job is to stay ahead, and I believe we can'.
Mr Lee said Singapore is in this enviable position today because it had taken 'painful and unpopular measures' after the 1997 Asian financial crisis to get the economy into shape.
The data tells the story: some 9.7 million visitors came here last year; unemployment is at a low 2.9 per cent and 49,000 jobs were created between January and March.
More important, he said, the Government has revised its vision of Singapore - to turn it into a city with a lively night life, a more liberal arts and entertainment scene, the building of the two integrated resorts and the introduction of Formula 1 racing here next year.
'I believe you're going to see a transformation in Singapore. It'll be the most vibrant lively city in this part of the world. And I believe in the next five years, we'll see it evolve.'
aaronl@sph.com.sg
then TATA COMES THE SUBPRIME START
AUGUST9 2007: SG NATIONAL DAY:
WIKIPEDIA:
August 9: French investment bank BNP Paribas suspends three investment funds that invested in subprime mortgage debt,[97] due to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" [98] in the market. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors, as subprime assets went bad, due to defaults by subprime mortgage payers.[99] This announcement compels the intervention of the European Central Bank, pumping 95 billion euros into the European banking market.[100][101]
then next:
BBC:
Singapore officially in recession
It is Singapore's first recession since 2002
Singapore's economy shrank between July and September, confirming it was the first Asian country in recession in the current financial crisis.
IN MAR 2009....
WHEN MM LEE WAS BEARISH:
Full recovery at least 2 to 3 years away
Mar 21, 2009 - The Straits Times
Clarissa Oon, Senior Political Correspondent
Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share
SINGAPORE will take two to three years to bounce back from the recession - and this is the optimistic scenario that assumes the United States recovers next year. The pessimistic forecast? Five to six years, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew,
who spoke last night at the launch of an alumni complex at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
MM Lee, who has been saying that Singapore's recovery hinges on that of the US, believes that the American economy is 'fundamentally sound'. Its
big companies such as General Motors and Chrysler are 'sound' despite their requests for further government aid.
He said he was reassured by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks last month that the economy would pick up by 2010, once
the government's stimulus package frees up lending to households and businesses.
Also, the same reliance on exports that has put Singapore's economy in the doldrums means that once the world's major economies rebound, 'we are going to bounce back'.
MM Lee took issue with criticisms of Singapore's economic model, such as that from a recent Wall Street Journal editorial which said the Republic needed to refocus on the domestic consumption of goods that are now produced for export.
'Four
million people to sustain industries supplying top-end goods to the world? That's rubbish.' Singapore has no choice but to export, he stressed.
What will further stand Singapore in good stead is its free trade agreements with countries such as the
US, Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand, he added.
With such conditions in place, 'if we don't prosper, we're stupid'.
Mr Lee made these points as he shared his thoughts on what Singapore would become in 25 years time, with some 300 alumni,
students and staff of NUS.
Singapore's prosperity would depend not just on its own efforts, but the state of the world a quarter century from now, he said, offering two possible scenarios.
The optimistic one is that the US and a rising China are
on good terms and there is cooperation between Beijing and its neighbours Japan and South Korea.
In this scenario, Singapore and its Asean neighbours will have banded together and achieved the goal of a single market and production base, because
'sooner or later, all the 10 countries will realise, unless we combine our markets we will be sidelined'.
What would be cause for alarm is if there were a clash between the world's major powers such as the US, China, the European Union and Russia,
creating 'a more dangerous Cold War'.
'This does not make for a prosperous world, there will be more arguments, more suspicion' and Singapore 'will not prosper so much' as a result.
In this pessimistic scenario, the Asean Economic Community would
be 'just a name - people are dragging their feet, never fully commit' and each Asean country would be aligned more closely to the big powers than with each other.
The actual outcome, he concluded, is likely to be somewhere in between the two
scenarios he sketched.
Later, in a dialogue, he was asked what would be a viable economic model for Asia as it emerges from the current crisis.
Smaller places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan will continue to rely on exports, he said.
As
for China and India, while they have the alternative to eventually build up their economies to where they are less dependent on exports, neither country would be able to completely do away with exports, he said.
He was also asked what would happen to
Singapore if some People's Action Party (PAP) politicians break away to form a new party and take over the Government.
'If you have capable people then I'm not worried.'
Integrity is crucial, he added, as are ability, experience and willingness to
do things for the people.
However, he did not believe the country with its small population could sustain a two-party system as the PAP already has 'to scour the whole country to find the quality we now have'.
'You need character, commitment,
drive and (the) ability to connect with people. It's a very tough job.'
I WAS VERY BULLISH.......LOOK AT THE TIMINGS!!!!
Singapore out of recession
Tue, Oct 13, 2009
my paper
THE economy of Singapore grew by an estimated 0.8 per cent in the three months to September from a year ago, reinforcing the country's recovery from recession, official figures showed yesterday.
It was the country's first year-on-year expansion in five quarters and was based on July and August data. The estimate is expected to be revised when the full September numbers are available next month.
'A clear but modest recovery is underway globally, at least for the next three or four quarters,' theMinistry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement.
The Government upgraded its full-year growth forecast to a contraction of 2-2.5 per cent - a significant improvement from the previous estimate of a 4-6 per cent contraction.
'One-off factors such as restocking activities and fiscal stimulus measures will continue to support growth in the near term,' MTI said.
However, it cautioned that economic activity will 'probably remain below pre-crisis levels' because of the drag on demand in the developed economies.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, GDP surged 14.9 per cent following a 22 per cent expansion in the second quarter to June, said MTI. It was the second successive quarter-on-quarter growth period.
'Growth was driven by the continued expansion of biomedical and electronics manufacturing output, and improvements in the trade-related and tourism sectors...on the back of a gradual stabilisation in global economic conditions,' MTI said.
Mr Song Seng Wun, regional economist with CIMB-GK Research, said Singapore was 'firmly out of recession' with GDP expanding in the third quarter.
Singapore sank into recession in the second quarter of last year, hurt by falling demand for its exports in major markets.
MY BEST REVERSE INDICATOR..I WILL TELL MY KIDS IN FUTURE...
REVERSE INDICATOR ALWAYS WORKS!!
Monday, December 27, 2010
NEWS
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Hong Kong
Published: 15 Jul 10
HSBC says Hong Kongers most affluent in Asia
The majority (78%) of affluent Hong Kongers say they managed to either keep their wealth intact (30%) or grow their net worth (48%) in early 2010 compared to six months ago, as they led the region as the wealthiest in terms of liquid assets. The HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker survey shows that affluent Asian investors, among the youngest of the world’s wealthy, are riding on the recovery in the world’s fastest-growing markets while navigating through continued uncertainty in the West, particularly in Europe.
Hong Kongers hold average liquid assets of US$301,289, nearly double Singapore’s at US$183,145 and Taiwan’s at US$155,162. Mainlanders lead Asia’s new affluent with US$126,537 worth of liquid assets while Indians’ are at US$87,769 and Indonesians’ at US$61,697. Malaysia’s affluent hold around US$56,891 worth of liquid assets, according to an HSBC report.
Bruno Lee, Regional Head of Wealth Management Asia-Pacific, said: “In the early part of the year, the majority of Hong Kong affluent were able to capitalise on the stock market’s recovery and regained confidence in other asset classes that delivered balanced growth and tapped opportunities in fast-growing economies.”
Across Asia, over half of liquid assets are in deposits, with affluent Indonesians holding up to 95 per cent in cash. Across the affluent in Greater China (Hong Kong 44%, Taiwan 42% and mainland China 41%) and India (40%), at least 40 per cent of liquid assets are invested in equities, unit trusts and other investments.
The third wave of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker was conducted by Nielsen for HSBC across 2,072 affluent individuals aged 18-65 in seven key markets from February to April 2010. With the last wave conducted in September to October 2009, the survey gauged the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by liquid assets or mortgage value. Details of the survey are attached.
Net worth growth
Sixty nine per cent (vs 70%) of mainland Chinese affluent reported a rise in net worth compared to six months ago. The proportion increases to 88 per cent (vs 85%) with the addition of the affluent set who maintained their net worth.
Across Asia, except in Indonesia (80% vs 91%) and Taiwan (67% vs 75%), more affluent individuals say they maintained or grew their net worth over the last six months: 91 per cent in Singapore (vs 73%), 91 per cent in Malaysia (vs 87%) and 89 per cent in India (vs 82%).
Young affluent Asians
Affluent Mainlanders are the youngest among the region’s affluent with an average age of 36, followed by Indians at 38 and Indonesians at 39. Hong Kong’s affluent are the oldest at 48 years on average and close to four in 10 (39%) are double income couples with no kids (DINKS). At least 10 per cent of affluent respondents in the region, except in Taiwan, are single.
Mr Lee added: “Asia’s young and upwardly mobile working population is fast accumulating wealth to become this generation’s emerging affluent. Their wealth management needs are evolving as they cross over to the next life stages. In many key markets in the region, investments, particularly in local equities, are a key driver to wealth growth. Asia’s new affluent, particularly in mainland China, are increasingly becoming savvy investors as they look to other asset classes and to overseas opportunities for diversification.”
Current investments
At least 7 in 10 affluent in Greater China invest in equities, with Hong Kong leading at 87 per cent, mainland China at 71 per cent and Taiwan at 70 per cent. One third (34%) of liquid assets held by affluent Hong Kongers are invested in equities, the highest in the region, followed by 29 per cent by affluent Mainlanders and 26 per cent by affluent Taiwanese. Yet, affluent individuals in Taiwan and the Mainland are Greater China’s biggest equity investors spending an average of US$547,739 and US$371,885, respectively buying and selling stocks over the last 12 months. Hong Kong came in third at US$220,795.
The survey also shows that affluent Mainlanders have one of the most diversified investment portfolios in the region, with a tenth of liquid assets invested in unit trusts and over half of the respondents (55%) saying they own unit trusts. Affluent Mainlanders are the region’s biggest unit trust investors, spending over US$30,141 in unit trusts in the past 12 months.
Future investments
Affluent Asians continue to look to stocks for future growth, with India leading the pack (44%), followed by Hong Kong (42%) and mainland China (18%). The affluent in Greater China, led by 20 per cent in Hong Kong, 16 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan, plan to diversify into other investments, including the renminbi (RMB) in the next three months. Currently, close to a quarter (23%) of affluent individuals in Hong Kong hold RMB investments.
A wave of affluent investors taking up new products is expected from Greater China: 32 per cent in Hong Kong, 21 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan. Over a tenth in Hong Kong (13%) and mainland China (14%) plan to invest in bonds for the first time. Fourteen per cent of affluent Mainlanders and 10 per cent of affluent Taiwanese plan to do overseas banking, particularly investments in securities and unit trusts.
Mr Lee said: “Our survey shows that in general, affluent Asians remain underinvested in the full range of assets with an overconcentration of investments in stocks compared to professionally managed mutual funds. This may have to do with restrictions on the type of product and market access in individual markets. However, Asia’s new affluent are showing increased maturity as investors as they have become wary about rushing into unfamiliar investments and are fast to change investment strategies to react to market changes.
“They are active self-investors who plan to explore new wealth opportunities, such as the RMB, emerging markets and other overseas investments. Increased involvement in their investments has helped mitigate the impact of the European crisis on affluent Asians’ wealth growth.”
HSBC Affluent Asian Risk Index
The survey also calculated a risk index to measure mentality and behaviour towards security and growth using a number of attributes. In a scale of 0-200 where 0 represents security and 200 for growth, markets tended to hover near the mean of 100 with Asia’s new affluent showing a balanced attitude towards risk compared to six months ago: Indonesia (100), India (100) and mainland China (99). The more mature markets of Taiwan (89), Malaysia (89), Singapore (82) and Hong Kong (82) show a shift to a security-oriented investment strategy. In Hong Kong and Singapore, the scores were driven by a cautious approach towards investing in products they are uncertain of or unfamiliar with.
Six in 10 affluent in the Mainland (66%), India (64%) and Hong Kong (62%) have a moderate appetite for risk. More affluent individuals in Singapore (47% vs 18%) and Taiwan (36% vs 18%) increased their appetite for capital protection compared to six months ago. Affluent investors from the emerging markets of Indonesia (25%) and Malaysia (23%) show a higher propensity for risk compared to the rest of the region.
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Hong Kong
Published: 15 Jul 10
HSBC says Hong Kongers most affluent in Asia
The majority (78%) of affluent Hong Kongers say they managed to either keep their wealth intact (30%) or grow their net worth (48%) in early 2010 compared to six months ago, as they led the region as the wealthiest in terms of liquid assets. The HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker survey shows that affluent Asian investors, among the youngest of the world’s wealthy, are riding on the recovery in the world’s fastest-growing markets while navigating through continued uncertainty in the West, particularly in Europe.
Hong Kongers hold average liquid assets of US$301,289, nearly double Singapore’s at US$183,145 and Taiwan’s at US$155,162. Mainlanders lead Asia’s new affluent with US$126,537 worth of liquid assets while Indians’ are at US$87,769 and Indonesians’ at US$61,697. Malaysia’s affluent hold around US$56,891 worth of liquid assets, according to an HSBC report.
Bruno Lee, Regional Head of Wealth Management Asia-Pacific, said: “In the early part of the year, the majority of Hong Kong affluent were able to capitalise on the stock market’s recovery and regained confidence in other asset classes that delivered balanced growth and tapped opportunities in fast-growing economies.”
Across Asia, over half of liquid assets are in deposits, with affluent Indonesians holding up to 95 per cent in cash. Across the affluent in Greater China (Hong Kong 44%, Taiwan 42% and mainland China 41%) and India (40%), at least 40 per cent of liquid assets are invested in equities, unit trusts and other investments.
The third wave of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker was conducted by Nielsen for HSBC across 2,072 affluent individuals aged 18-65 in seven key markets from February to April 2010. With the last wave conducted in September to October 2009, the survey gauged the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by liquid assets or mortgage value. Details of the survey are attached.
Net worth growth
Sixty nine per cent (vs 70%) of mainland Chinese affluent reported a rise in net worth compared to six months ago. The proportion increases to 88 per cent (vs 85%) with the addition of the affluent set who maintained their net worth.
Across Asia, except in Indonesia (80% vs 91%) and Taiwan (67% vs 75%), more affluent individuals say they maintained or grew their net worth over the last six months: 91 per cent in Singapore (vs 73%), 91 per cent in Malaysia (vs 87%) and 89 per cent in India (vs 82%).
Young affluent Asians
Affluent Mainlanders are the youngest among the region’s affluent with an average age of 36, followed by Indians at 38 and Indonesians at 39. Hong Kong’s affluent are the oldest at 48 years on average and close to four in 10 (39%) are double income couples with no kids (DINKS). At least 10 per cent of affluent respondents in the region, except in Taiwan, are single.
Mr Lee added: “Asia’s young and upwardly mobile working population is fast accumulating wealth to become this generation’s emerging affluent. Their wealth management needs are evolving as they cross over to the next life stages. In many key markets in the region, investments, particularly in local equities, are a key driver to wealth growth. Asia’s new affluent, particularly in mainland China, are increasingly becoming savvy investors as they look to other asset classes and to overseas opportunities for diversification.”
Current investments
At least 7 in 10 affluent in Greater China invest in equities, with Hong Kong leading at 87 per cent, mainland China at 71 per cent and Taiwan at 70 per cent. One third (34%) of liquid assets held by affluent Hong Kongers are invested in equities, the highest in the region, followed by 29 per cent by affluent Mainlanders and 26 per cent by affluent Taiwanese. Yet, affluent individuals in Taiwan and the Mainland are Greater China’s biggest equity investors spending an average of US$547,739 and US$371,885, respectively buying and selling stocks over the last 12 months. Hong Kong came in third at US$220,795.
The survey also shows that affluent Mainlanders have one of the most diversified investment portfolios in the region, with a tenth of liquid assets invested in unit trusts and over half of the respondents (55%) saying they own unit trusts. Affluent Mainlanders are the region’s biggest unit trust investors, spending over US$30,141 in unit trusts in the past 12 months.
Future investments
Affluent Asians continue to look to stocks for future growth, with India leading the pack (44%), followed by Hong Kong (42%) and mainland China (18%). The affluent in Greater China, led by 20 per cent in Hong Kong, 16 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan, plan to diversify into other investments, including the renminbi (RMB) in the next three months. Currently, close to a quarter (23%) of affluent individuals in Hong Kong hold RMB investments.
A wave of affluent investors taking up new products is expected from Greater China: 32 per cent in Hong Kong, 21 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan. Over a tenth in Hong Kong (13%) and mainland China (14%) plan to invest in bonds for the first time. Fourteen per cent of affluent Mainlanders and 10 per cent of affluent Taiwanese plan to do overseas banking, particularly investments in securities and unit trusts.
Mr Lee said: “Our survey shows that in general, affluent Asians remain underinvested in the full range of assets with an overconcentration of investments in stocks compared to professionally managed mutual funds. This may have to do with restrictions on the type of product and market access in individual markets. However, Asia’s new affluent are showing increased maturity as investors as they have become wary about rushing into unfamiliar investments and are fast to change investment strategies to react to market changes.
“They are active self-investors who plan to explore new wealth opportunities, such as the RMB, emerging markets and other overseas investments. Increased involvement in their investments has helped mitigate the impact of the European crisis on affluent Asians’ wealth growth.”
HSBC Affluent Asian Risk Index
The survey also calculated a risk index to measure mentality and behaviour towards security and growth using a number of attributes. In a scale of 0-200 where 0 represents security and 200 for growth, markets tended to hover near the mean of 100 with Asia’s new affluent showing a balanced attitude towards risk compared to six months ago: Indonesia (100), India (100) and mainland China (99). The more mature markets of Taiwan (89), Malaysia (89), Singapore (82) and Hong Kong (82) show a shift to a security-oriented investment strategy. In Hong Kong and Singapore, the scores were driven by a cautious approach towards investing in products they are uncertain of or unfamiliar with.
Six in 10 affluent in the Mainland (66%), India (64%) and Hong Kong (62%) have a moderate appetite for risk. More affluent individuals in Singapore (47% vs 18%) and Taiwan (36% vs 18%) increased their appetite for capital protection compared to six months ago. Affluent investors from the emerging markets of Indonesia (25%) and Malaysia (23%) show a higher propensity for risk compared to the rest of the region.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
23 Nov, 2010, 04.11AM IST,REUTERS
Thailand slides into 'technical' recession
BANGKOK: Thailand’s economy slipped into a technical recession in the third quarter, reinforcing signs of an Asia-wide slowdown as export growth cools, manufacturing ebbs and the impact of massive government stimulus spending fades.
South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter after a revised 0.6% contraction in the second, data showed on Monday, reducing chances of another interest rate rise next month. The data reinforce signs of a slowdown across much of the region, from North Asian export powerhouses China, South Korea and Taiwan to South-East Asian “tigers” Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia. Strong growth in Asia has been one of the few bright spots for the struggling global economy.
Figures last week showed Taiwan’s economic growth slowing in the third quarter, while Singapore’s trade-reliant economy shrank 18.7% and Indonesia reported this month its first slowdown in annual growth in five quarters. From a year earlier, Thailand grew 6.7% in the quarter, largely in line with economists’ forecasts and slowing from growth of 9.2% in the second quarter, the data from the state planning agency showed.
“Looking forward, we expect weaker global demand to bring Thailand’s economic growth to below trend in the fourth quarter of 2010, and in the first half of 2011,” said Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Malaysia’s economic growth slowed more than expected to 5.3% in the third quarter from 8.9% in the second, its central bank said on Monday, noting growth in the second half of the year and in early next year was moderating.
OCBC economist Gundy Cahyadi said growth almost stalled in the third quarter from the previous three months, though few analysts give quarter-on-quarter figures. The Asian slowdown has been exacerbated by the US dollar’s slide, which has driven up regional currencies and started to erode export revenue.
The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its trend-setting one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75% at its next policy-setting meeting on December 1, said Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailands state economic planning agency.
Private economists echoed that view after the data, which was marginally better than a deeper 0.4 per cent contraction expected by most economists in a Reuters survey.
``We expect less aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Thailand and possible delays on interest rate hikes next year,’’ said Isara Ordeedolchest, an economist at KT Zeamico Securities, a stock brokerage in Bangkok.
Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, economist at Kasikorn Research Centre, expects the economy to contract again in the fourth quarter, hurt by a nearly 12 per cent rise in the baht this year against the dollar to a 13-year high and floods that have killed more than 200 people since October.
RATES SEEN ON HOLD
Thailands debt market has largely priced in a rate pause next month, with one-year swap rates down by 22 basis points in the past two weeks. Government bond yields were barely changed after Mondays economic data.
Indonesias central bank is also seen pausing to keep its policy rate on hold at a record low 6.5 per cent well into 2011 as it tries to avoid encouraging an even bigger flow of investment capital to its markets.
Despite the slowdown, Thailands state planning agency raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 7.9 per cent from 7.0-7.5 per cent projected in August, and tipped growth of between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent in 2011.
Agency chief Arkhom said the quarterly contraction was due to lower state spending and a slowdown in private investment.
``Its cyclical that Q3 is usually weaker than other quarters,’’ he told reporters, adding that the flooding across much of Thailand over October and November shaved economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.
He said the fourth-quarter performance depended on strength in exports which his agency expected to rise 25.1 per cent this year before slowing to about half that rate of growth next year.
The data puts Thailand technically in recession after two straight quarters of economic contraction.
Earlier data had indicated the economy grew 0.2 per cent in the second quarter from the first, but that was revised down to show it had contracted, due largely to political unrest over April and May in which more than 90 people were killed.
SET:nov23:1009
dec 23:1021
GOT MEANING?
SET UP FROM 734 TO 1021 IN 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
China GDP Growth Rate
The Chinese economy expanded 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2010, as measured by the year-over-year change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP YoY). Unlike the commonly used quarterly GDP growth rate the annual GDP growth rate takes into account a full year of economic activity, thus avoiding the need to make any type of seasonal adjustment. The China Gross Domestic Product is worth 4909 billion dollars or 7.92% of the world economy, according to the World Bank. From 1989 until 2010, China's average annual GDP Growth was 9.30 percent reaching an historical high of 14.20 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.80 percent in December of 1990. This page includes: China GDP Growth Rate chart, historical data and news.
Country Interest Rate Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Current Account Exchange Rate
China 5.56% 9.60% 5.10% 4.20% 70500 6.6640
Year Mar Jun Sep Dec
2010 11.90 10.30 9.60
2009 6.20 7.90 9.10 10.70
2008 10.60 10.10 9.00 6.80
China's GDP Slows to 9.6%
Published: 10/22/2010 8:23:09 AM By: TradingEconomic.com
China's economy grew by 9.6% in the third quarter, indicating a slight deceleration in growth this year as the government's cooling measures appeared to have had some effect.
The numbers compared to 10.3% on the second quarter and 11.9% in the first, but at the same time consumer price index (CPI)inflation hit a two year high of 3.6% in September.
While the GDP figures will please the country's fiscal policy makers who have been trying to cool the pace of growth, the stubborn inflation numbers will be more of an issue.
The government had set a ceiling for inflation levels at the start of 2010 at 3%, and had predicted that inflation would fall well below that figure during the second half of the year.
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in August, with most of the rise blamed on volatile food prices. The inflation hike will be of concern to market watchers who will expect Chinese growth to remain strong over the coming months.
WHY SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DOWN FOR THE YEAR 2010?????????
Thailand slides into 'technical' recession
BANGKOK: Thailand’s economy slipped into a technical recession in the third quarter, reinforcing signs of an Asia-wide slowdown as export growth cools, manufacturing ebbs and the impact of massive government stimulus spending fades.
South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter after a revised 0.6% contraction in the second, data showed on Monday, reducing chances of another interest rate rise next month. The data reinforce signs of a slowdown across much of the region, from North Asian export powerhouses China, South Korea and Taiwan to South-East Asian “tigers” Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia. Strong growth in Asia has been one of the few bright spots for the struggling global economy.
Figures last week showed Taiwan’s economic growth slowing in the third quarter, while Singapore’s trade-reliant economy shrank 18.7% and Indonesia reported this month its first slowdown in annual growth in five quarters. From a year earlier, Thailand grew 6.7% in the quarter, largely in line with economists’ forecasts and slowing from growth of 9.2% in the second quarter, the data from the state planning agency showed.
“Looking forward, we expect weaker global demand to bring Thailand’s economic growth to below trend in the fourth quarter of 2010, and in the first half of 2011,” said Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Malaysia’s economic growth slowed more than expected to 5.3% in the third quarter from 8.9% in the second, its central bank said on Monday, noting growth in the second half of the year and in early next year was moderating.
OCBC economist Gundy Cahyadi said growth almost stalled in the third quarter from the previous three months, though few analysts give quarter-on-quarter figures. The Asian slowdown has been exacerbated by the US dollar’s slide, which has driven up regional currencies and started to erode export revenue.
The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its trend-setting one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75% at its next policy-setting meeting on December 1, said Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailands state economic planning agency.
Private economists echoed that view after the data, which was marginally better than a deeper 0.4 per cent contraction expected by most economists in a Reuters survey.
``We expect less aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Thailand and possible delays on interest rate hikes next year,’’ said Isara Ordeedolchest, an economist at KT Zeamico Securities, a stock brokerage in Bangkok.
Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, economist at Kasikorn Research Centre, expects the economy to contract again in the fourth quarter, hurt by a nearly 12 per cent rise in the baht this year against the dollar to a 13-year high and floods that have killed more than 200 people since October.
RATES SEEN ON HOLD
Thailands debt market has largely priced in a rate pause next month, with one-year swap rates down by 22 basis points in the past two weeks. Government bond yields were barely changed after Mondays economic data.
Indonesias central bank is also seen pausing to keep its policy rate on hold at a record low 6.5 per cent well into 2011 as it tries to avoid encouraging an even bigger flow of investment capital to its markets.
Despite the slowdown, Thailands state planning agency raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 7.9 per cent from 7.0-7.5 per cent projected in August, and tipped growth of between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent in 2011.
Agency chief Arkhom said the quarterly contraction was due to lower state spending and a slowdown in private investment.
``Its cyclical that Q3 is usually weaker than other quarters,’’ he told reporters, adding that the flooding across much of Thailand over October and November shaved economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.
He said the fourth-quarter performance depended on strength in exports which his agency expected to rise 25.1 per cent this year before slowing to about half that rate of growth next year.
The data puts Thailand technically in recession after two straight quarters of economic contraction.
Earlier data had indicated the economy grew 0.2 per cent in the second quarter from the first, but that was revised down to show it had contracted, due largely to political unrest over April and May in which more than 90 people were killed.
SET:nov23:1009
dec 23:1021
GOT MEANING?
SET UP FROM 734 TO 1021 IN 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
China GDP Growth Rate
The Chinese economy expanded 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2010, as measured by the year-over-year change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP YoY). Unlike the commonly used quarterly GDP growth rate the annual GDP growth rate takes into account a full year of economic activity, thus avoiding the need to make any type of seasonal adjustment. The China Gross Domestic Product is worth 4909 billion dollars or 7.92% of the world economy, according to the World Bank. From 1989 until 2010, China's average annual GDP Growth was 9.30 percent reaching an historical high of 14.20 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.80 percent in December of 1990. This page includes: China GDP Growth Rate chart, historical data and news.
Country Interest Rate Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Current Account Exchange Rate
China 5.56% 9.60% 5.10% 4.20% 70500 6.6640
Year Mar Jun Sep Dec
2010 11.90 10.30 9.60
2009 6.20 7.90 9.10 10.70
2008 10.60 10.10 9.00 6.80
China's GDP Slows to 9.6%
Published: 10/22/2010 8:23:09 AM By: TradingEconomic.com
China's economy grew by 9.6% in the third quarter, indicating a slight deceleration in growth this year as the government's cooling measures appeared to have had some effect.
The numbers compared to 10.3% on the second quarter and 11.9% in the first, but at the same time consumer price index (CPI)inflation hit a two year high of 3.6% in September.
While the GDP figures will please the country's fiscal policy makers who have been trying to cool the pace of growth, the stubborn inflation numbers will be more of an issue.
The government had set a ceiling for inflation levels at the start of 2010 at 3%, and had predicted that inflation would fall well below that figure during the second half of the year.
CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in August, with most of the rise blamed on volatile food prices. The inflation hike will be of concern to market watchers who will expect Chinese growth to remain strong over the coming months.
WHY SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DOWN FOR THE YEAR 2010?????????
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
On February 27, 2009, Citigroup announced that the United States government would take a 36% equity stake in the company by converting $25 billion in emergency aid into common shares; the stake was reduced to 27% after Citigroup sold $21 billion of common shares and equity in the largest single share sale in US history, surpassing Bank of America's $19 billion share sale one month prior.
Citigroup is one of the Big Four banks in the United States, along with Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo.--from wikipedia
WHEN DID THE STOCKMARKET BOTTOM????IS THIS NOT A PLOY OR WHAT????
after the US GOVT BOUGHT ALL THAT THEY WANTED TO--THE STOCKMARKET "FORGOT" HOW TO DROP!!!
Citigroup is one of the Big Four banks in the United States, along with Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo.--from wikipedia
WHEN DID THE STOCKMARKET BOTTOM????IS THIS NOT A PLOY OR WHAT????
after the US GOVT BOUGHT ALL THAT THEY WANTED TO--THE STOCKMARKET "FORGOT" HOW TO DROP!!!
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Goldman Sachs Says Hong Kong Set to Benefit Most from Quantitative Easing
By Nick Gentle - Nov 3, 2010 8:04 AM
Goldman Sach Group Inc. raised its 12-month target for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index to 29,000, saying the city has the most to gain from extra liquidity released by quantitative easing programs and China’s growth.
Hong Kong will benefit most from a structural capital relocation away from developed markets to emerging ones, Goldman analysts said in a report today. They said the MSCI Hong Kong Index offered a better proxy for Hong Kong growth than the Hang Seng Index, for which China stocks make up 56 percent of its market capitalization.
The analysts said Hong Kong property stocks such as Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. would benefit from liquidity-driven real estate inflation.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
People's Daily: International Investment Bank Caused Crash
By staff reporters Sun Huixia and Ma Yuan 12.01.2010 20:00
People's Daily Says Investment Bank Responsible for Plunge
In an apparent effort to influence the stock market, the People's Daily opposed big fluctuations in stock market
(Beijing) - China's official mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said December 1 that an international investment bank manipulated stock markets for its own gain and a group email that it sent to investors triggered off a plunge in share prices on November 12
In a commentary contributed by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Tongji University, an unnamed international investment bank allegedly sent emails to investors, advising them to sell their shares. The article, titled "Where is China's stock market heading in the next two decades?" said that rumors of impending stamp taxes also sent the market into a tailspin.
On November 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.16 percent, the largest single-day drop in 2010 so far. China Securities Regulatory Commission has started a probe into the alleged manipulation and has not released their findings.
The article, published on the front page of the overseas edition of the People's Daily, said that China should avoid dramatic fluctuations in the stock market and make it a major vehicle to increase the wealth of the masses. The overseas edition targets audiences outside of the mainland.
"Big fluctuations on the stock market have a remarkable impact not only on economic development, but also on the harmony and stability of the society," said the commentary.
About 150 million Chinese invest in stock markets and investors are from all walks of life, said the commentary, adding that any move in the stock market would rattle the nerves of millions of people.
The commentary was the second in two weeks for the state-run newspaper to voice its strong support for a bullish market. In the commentary published last Wednesday, the stock market was described as the best place to absorb excess liquidity.
"China's fight against inflation will not come at the expense of a stock market collapse. The market should not overreact to the measures by the government to curb inflation," said the previous commentary.
The commentary added that stock markets still lack fairness, accountability and transparency.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange were launched two decades ago with the official mission to facilitate state-owned companies in their corporate financing. All listings still need to be approved by securities regulator, rather than by the exchanges.
Goldman Advises Clients To Take Profits On "Long China" Trade
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/11/2010 12:16 -0500
After last night's completely unsurprising "beat" of Chinese annualized inflation of 4.4%, Goldman today has come out with a note which, however, is very surprising: Goldman's Robin Brooks and Dominic Wilson have decided to close out their "long China" recommendation, which was one of the firm's Top 2010 Trades presented previously on Zero Hedge. And while the profit on the trade of 11.3% is appealing, the reason for the unwind makes little sense. As everyone had been fully aware (see our note here) in advance, the inflation number would come out at 4.4% (and so it did). To use this as an argument for tightening expectations seems a little disingenuous. Which begs the question: why is Goldman truly no longer bullish on China? And does this mean that the firm no longer buys Jim O'Neill latest decoupling thesis? Lastly, as China has been a key dynamo for world growth, if there is little equity upside to be had in the one last capitalist country, what can we say about the less than capitalist America? This is further compounded by Jan Hatzius' suddenly rosy again outlook on the US economy (coupled with Goldman's ongoing demands for up to $2 trillion in QE, which with every passing day is becoming increasingly more improbable)...
From Goldman Sachs:
Following yesterday’s RRR hikes, overnight China’s CPI inflation came in at 4.4%, above consensus of 4.0%, while industrial production rose by 13.1%, slightly short of consensus expectations of 13.4%. Money growth remained robust at 19.3% yoy. These data reinforce our view that activity remains solid even as inflation is picking up, so that more tightening measures are likely on the way. Jobs data in Australia was stronger than the headline number suggests (5.4% vs consensus of 5.0%), with the rise in the unemployment rate due to a jump in labor force participation. The main even today and tomorrow will the G-20 summit of heads of state.
Yesterday we closed our long China (HSCEI) equities recommendation and long EEM/SPX recommendation with potential gains of roughly 11.3% and 2.3% respectively. With the US cyclical data (ISM and Payrolls) surprising on the upside last week, initial jobless claims continuing to trend lower, and inflation and policy tightening back squarely on the EM policy agenda, the near term outlook for this type of relative trade versus the US is more muddied than it has been for some time. The China (HSCEI) equities top trade too has moved up strongly in the last few months on the back of better cyclical data and easier policy. With successive inflation prints above the policymakers’ comfort zone, another hike in the reserve rate earlier today, and more policy tightening likely in the works, the near-term risk/reward for this position also looks unappealing as we approach the year-end ‘roll-off’. This “risk-management” aside, we continue to like the long-term outlook for EM equities: growth remains robust, and low interest rates in the majors should continue to exert downward pressure on the cost of funding for EM corporates. In the near term the inflation risk in some EM economies is growing and real, but as long as it is dealt with, equities should remain broadly well-supported, but after a strong run since September, it will be important to be more selective going forward.
As for how Goldman's top 9 trades of 2010 have fared so far, below is a summary - of the 9 original trades, 4 have been closed (2 at a loss, 2 at profit), and 5 remain still open.
Stay short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap, opened at 28.20, with a target of 21, now at 25.466.
Stay long Russian Equities (RDXUSD), opened at 1645.9 for a target of 2050, now at 1804.00.
Stay long GBP/NZD, opened at 2.29, with a target of 2.60, now at 2.0531.
Close short 2-yr GBP swap rates vs. long 2-yr AUD swap rates on a 1-yr forward basis, opened at -268.5 bp, for a potential loss of 24 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close short 2-yr TRY rates through cross-currency swaps, opened at 8.77%, with a target of 12.0%, for a potential loss of 168 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close long 5yr credit protection in Spain vs. short 5yr credit protection in Ireland at 13 bp, opened at 70 bp, with a target of 20 bp, for a potential profit of 2.9% (inclusive of carry).
Stay long the GS FX Growth Current, opened at 103.5, with a target of 111.8, now at 104.1.
Stay long PLN/JPY, opened at 32.1, with a target of 37.5, now at 28.9471.
Close long Chinese Equities (HSCEI), opened at 12616.01 on 01 April 2010, with a target of 15000, for a potential profit of 11.3%.
HOW CAN HSI LONG,HSCEI SELL?THIS NEVER HAPPEN IN HISTORY!!!LETS CHECK THE PERFORMANCE OF HSI, HSCEI AFTER THE GOLDMAN REPORT
HSI:24876 ON NOV 5TH 2010(day of report) DEC 15:22975---DOWN 7.6PERCENT
hscei:13889 ON NOV 10 2010( day of report) DEC 15: 12585---DOWN 9.3PERCENT
BOTH DOWN RIGHT?I WANT TO SEE HOW HSCEI CAN PLUNGE WHEN HSI GO UP TO 29K
GOLDMAN SUCKS
By Nick Gentle - Nov 3, 2010 8:04 AM
Goldman Sach Group Inc. raised its 12-month target for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index to 29,000, saying the city has the most to gain from extra liquidity released by quantitative easing programs and China’s growth.
Hong Kong will benefit most from a structural capital relocation away from developed markets to emerging ones, Goldman analysts said in a report today. They said the MSCI Hong Kong Index offered a better proxy for Hong Kong growth than the Hang Seng Index, for which China stocks make up 56 percent of its market capitalization.
The analysts said Hong Kong property stocks such as Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. would benefit from liquidity-driven real estate inflation.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
People's Daily: International Investment Bank Caused Crash
By staff reporters Sun Huixia and Ma Yuan 12.01.2010 20:00
People's Daily Says Investment Bank Responsible for Plunge
In an apparent effort to influence the stock market, the People's Daily opposed big fluctuations in stock market
(Beijing) - China's official mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said December 1 that an international investment bank manipulated stock markets for its own gain and a group email that it sent to investors triggered off a plunge in share prices on November 12
In a commentary contributed by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Tongji University, an unnamed international investment bank allegedly sent emails to investors, advising them to sell their shares. The article, titled "Where is China's stock market heading in the next two decades?" said that rumors of impending stamp taxes also sent the market into a tailspin.
On November 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.16 percent, the largest single-day drop in 2010 so far. China Securities Regulatory Commission has started a probe into the alleged manipulation and has not released their findings.
The article, published on the front page of the overseas edition of the People's Daily, said that China should avoid dramatic fluctuations in the stock market and make it a major vehicle to increase the wealth of the masses. The overseas edition targets audiences outside of the mainland.
"Big fluctuations on the stock market have a remarkable impact not only on economic development, but also on the harmony and stability of the society," said the commentary.
About 150 million Chinese invest in stock markets and investors are from all walks of life, said the commentary, adding that any move in the stock market would rattle the nerves of millions of people.
The commentary was the second in two weeks for the state-run newspaper to voice its strong support for a bullish market. In the commentary published last Wednesday, the stock market was described as the best place to absorb excess liquidity.
"China's fight against inflation will not come at the expense of a stock market collapse. The market should not overreact to the measures by the government to curb inflation," said the previous commentary.
The commentary added that stock markets still lack fairness, accountability and transparency.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange were launched two decades ago with the official mission to facilitate state-owned companies in their corporate financing. All listings still need to be approved by securities regulator, rather than by the exchanges.
Goldman Advises Clients To Take Profits On "Long China" Trade
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/11/2010 12:16 -0500
After last night's completely unsurprising "beat" of Chinese annualized inflation of 4.4%, Goldman today has come out with a note which, however, is very surprising: Goldman's Robin Brooks and Dominic Wilson have decided to close out their "long China" recommendation, which was one of the firm's Top 2010 Trades presented previously on Zero Hedge. And while the profit on the trade of 11.3% is appealing, the reason for the unwind makes little sense. As everyone had been fully aware (see our note here) in advance, the inflation number would come out at 4.4% (and so it did). To use this as an argument for tightening expectations seems a little disingenuous. Which begs the question: why is Goldman truly no longer bullish on China? And does this mean that the firm no longer buys Jim O'Neill latest decoupling thesis? Lastly, as China has been a key dynamo for world growth, if there is little equity upside to be had in the one last capitalist country, what can we say about the less than capitalist America? This is further compounded by Jan Hatzius' suddenly rosy again outlook on the US economy (coupled with Goldman's ongoing demands for up to $2 trillion in QE, which with every passing day is becoming increasingly more improbable)...
From Goldman Sachs:
Following yesterday’s RRR hikes, overnight China’s CPI inflation came in at 4.4%, above consensus of 4.0%, while industrial production rose by 13.1%, slightly short of consensus expectations of 13.4%. Money growth remained robust at 19.3% yoy. These data reinforce our view that activity remains solid even as inflation is picking up, so that more tightening measures are likely on the way. Jobs data in Australia was stronger than the headline number suggests (5.4% vs consensus of 5.0%), with the rise in the unemployment rate due to a jump in labor force participation. The main even today and tomorrow will the G-20 summit of heads of state.
Yesterday we closed our long China (HSCEI) equities recommendation and long EEM/SPX recommendation with potential gains of roughly 11.3% and 2.3% respectively. With the US cyclical data (ISM and Payrolls) surprising on the upside last week, initial jobless claims continuing to trend lower, and inflation and policy tightening back squarely on the EM policy agenda, the near term outlook for this type of relative trade versus the US is more muddied than it has been for some time. The China (HSCEI) equities top trade too has moved up strongly in the last few months on the back of better cyclical data and easier policy. With successive inflation prints above the policymakers’ comfort zone, another hike in the reserve rate earlier today, and more policy tightening likely in the works, the near-term risk/reward for this position also looks unappealing as we approach the year-end ‘roll-off’. This “risk-management” aside, we continue to like the long-term outlook for EM equities: growth remains robust, and low interest rates in the majors should continue to exert downward pressure on the cost of funding for EM corporates. In the near term the inflation risk in some EM economies is growing and real, but as long as it is dealt with, equities should remain broadly well-supported, but after a strong run since September, it will be important to be more selective going forward.
As for how Goldman's top 9 trades of 2010 have fared so far, below is a summary - of the 9 original trades, 4 have been closed (2 at a loss, 2 at profit), and 5 remain still open.
Stay short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap, opened at 28.20, with a target of 21, now at 25.466.
Stay long Russian Equities (RDXUSD), opened at 1645.9 for a target of 2050, now at 1804.00.
Stay long GBP/NZD, opened at 2.29, with a target of 2.60, now at 2.0531.
Close short 2-yr GBP swap rates vs. long 2-yr AUD swap rates on a 1-yr forward basis, opened at -268.5 bp, for a potential loss of 24 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close short 2-yr TRY rates through cross-currency swaps, opened at 8.77%, with a target of 12.0%, for a potential loss of 168 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close long 5yr credit protection in Spain vs. short 5yr credit protection in Ireland at 13 bp, opened at 70 bp, with a target of 20 bp, for a potential profit of 2.9% (inclusive of carry).
Stay long the GS FX Growth Current, opened at 103.5, with a target of 111.8, now at 104.1.
Stay long PLN/JPY, opened at 32.1, with a target of 37.5, now at 28.9471.
Close long Chinese Equities (HSCEI), opened at 12616.01 on 01 April 2010, with a target of 15000, for a potential profit of 11.3%.
HOW CAN HSI LONG,HSCEI SELL?THIS NEVER HAPPEN IN HISTORY!!!LETS CHECK THE PERFORMANCE OF HSI, HSCEI AFTER THE GOLDMAN REPORT
HSI:24876 ON NOV 5TH 2010(day of report) DEC 15:22975---DOWN 7.6PERCENT
hscei:13889 ON NOV 10 2010( day of report) DEC 15: 12585---DOWN 9.3PERCENT
BOTH DOWN RIGHT?I WANT TO SEE HOW HSCEI CAN PLUNGE WHEN HSI GO UP TO 29K
GOLDMAN SUCKS
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
TUES nov30 manipulation pattern
hsi drop 158 points,sti drop 13 points.
this drop is a far cry from shanghai comp dropping 3.5pc in the day when hsi drop only 1.1pc.--suggesting more upside
HENCE WE GOT THE ANSWER from usmkt at nite..
usmkt drop also by same %tage--hence this drop is factored in by hsi yesterday.
gold,silver surge at night,breaking the 50mark.
hsi drop 158 points,sti drop 13 points.
this drop is a far cry from shanghai comp dropping 3.5pc in the day when hsi drop only 1.1pc.--suggesting more upside
HENCE WE GOT THE ANSWER from usmkt at nite..
usmkt drop also by same %tage--hence this drop is factored in by hsi yesterday.
gold,silver surge at night,breaking the 50mark.
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