MOST HILARIOUS IS THAT MERCATOR IS NOT EVEN A 100% DRYBULK SHIPPING COMPANY AND YET IT IS SO BEATEN DOWN!!IT WILL BE A 60% COAL AND 30% SHIPPING IN 2012-meaning IT IS SUPER UNDERVALUED!DID COAL PRICES PLUNGE 90% AS BDI???nope
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
Saturday, January 28, 2012
28jan2012-TALE OF 3 DRYBULK SHIPPERS WITH BDI VALUES ATTACHED
MOST HILARIOUS IS THAT MERCATOR IS NOT EVEN A 100% DRYBULK SHIPPING COMPANY AND YET IT IS SO BEATEN DOWN!!IT WILL BE A 60% COAL AND 30% SHIPPING IN 2012-meaning IT IS SUPER UNDERVALUED!DID COAL PRICES PLUNGE 90% AS BDI???nope
28jan2012-uncanny similarities REPEATED AGAIN a 100% gain in 4-5months time??
euro crises part 1:2010
dryships plunged around 50% from 6.6 to 3.2
then drys took 2x 10weeks up AND 1x sp500 retracement period to return back to 6.19usd,a near 100% gain
euro crises part 2:2011
drys plunged from from around 50% from 4.8 to 2.3(the dropping phase)
WILL DRYS TAKE 2X 10WEEKS UP AND 1X SP500 RETRACEMENT PERIOD TO RETURN TO 4.5-4.8 USD??????????????
mercator will hit 26-30c
WE ARE COMING TO THE END OF THE 1ST 10WEEKS UP OF THE 3RD HUMP,1ST 10 WEEKS UP AFTER THE EURO CRISES PART 2...NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE 10TH WEEK WHERE SP500 WILL HIT 1380,BY NEXT FRIDAY CLOSING USA TIME.
IF SP500 10TH WEEK,NEXT WEEK'S FRIDAY REACH ONLY 1344,THEN THE 10WEEKS UP WILL BE LENGTHENED TO 11,12 WEEKS UP
dryships plunged around 50% from 6.6 to 3.2
then drys took 2x 10weeks up AND 1x sp500 retracement period to return back to 6.19usd,a near 100% gain
euro crises part 2:2011
drys plunged from from around 50% from 4.8 to 2.3(the dropping phase)
WILL DRYS TAKE 2X 10WEEKS UP AND 1X SP500 RETRACEMENT PERIOD TO RETURN TO 4.5-4.8 USD??????????????
mercator will hit 26-30c
WE ARE COMING TO THE END OF THE 1ST 10WEEKS UP OF THE 3RD HUMP,1ST 10 WEEKS UP AFTER THE EURO CRISES PART 2...NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE 10TH WEEK WHERE SP500 WILL HIT 1380,BY NEXT FRIDAY CLOSING USA TIME.
IF SP500 10TH WEEK,NEXT WEEK'S FRIDAY REACH ONLY 1344,THEN THE 10WEEKS UP WILL BE LENGTHENED TO 11,12 WEEKS UP
Thursday, January 26, 2012
26jan2012-how sp500 10weeks up and consolidation periods fit into dryships chart
SP500 10WEEKS UP/consolidations WITH DRYSHIPS
Done on 26jan2012
1)1st 9weeks up
Mar9 2009 week to MAY4th 2009 week-
sp500 up from 683 to 929
Drys
Mar2 2009 week to May 4th 2009 week: drys up from 3.34 to 11 highest but close may4th 2009 week at 7.7
2)resting period 1
may11th 2009 week to jul6th 2009 week
sp500 down from 929 to 879
Drys Drop from 7.7 to 5.07
3)10weeks part 2
(jul 13 2009 week- sept14 2009 week)
Sp500 up from 879 to 1068
Drys up from 5.07 to 7.7 but close at 7
4)resting period 2(sept21 week to oct26 week 2009)
Sp500 Close at 1036 from 1068(-3%)
Drys: Down from 7 usd to 5.7usd
5)10weeks up part3(nov2,2009 week to jan4th 2010 week)
Sp500 close at1144
Drys up from 5.8 to 6.6(last week surge)
6)resting period 3(jan11 2010 week to feb1 2010)
Sp500 drop from 1144 to 1066
Drys drop from 6.6usd to 5.16 usd
7) 10weeks up part 4(feb 15 to apr 19 2010)
Sp500 up from 1075 to 1219
Drys up from 5.1 to 6.6(drys hit 6.6 in apr 12 week, apr 19 week close at 5.92
8)resting period 4:week apr 26 2010- week 28th june 2010
DRAMA TITLE:EURO CRISES part A
a)dropping phase- sp500 dropped from 1219 to 1022
drys dropped from 6.56 to 3.2usd
b)rising phase but NOT next 10weeks up(1st testing)
week start 5th july to august 23rd 2010
sp500 rose from 1022 to 1064
drys rose from 3.3 usd hit a high of 4.80 in week of aug9 2010 ,and end at 3.9 usd at week august 23 2010
9)10weeks up part 5
Week August 30 2010-nov 1st 2010 week
Sp500 rose from 1064-1225
Drys rose from 3.9 to 4.6 usd
10)resting period 5-week nov 8 2010 to week nov 22 2010
Sp500 dropped from 1225 to 1189
DRYS ROSE FROM 4.5 to 5 usd
11)12weeks up part 6-nov 29 2010 to feb14 2011
Sp500 rose from 1189 to 1344
Drys rose from 5 to 6.19 on week dec 13 2010, and started tumbling(fake breakout 1) ended feb14 2010 at 4.838
12)resting period 6-
DRAMA TITLE:Euro crises part B
a) dropping phase
april 25 week 2011-sept 26 2011week
sp500 dropped from 1370 to 1130
drys drooped from 4.8 to 2.34 usd (hitting low of 2.1on aug 8 week)
b) rising phase but NOT next 10weeks up
oct3 2011 week –nov21 2011
sp500 rose from 1130 to 1158
drys DROPPED from 2.34 to 2.15 usd(hitting 1.75 low on oct 3week)
13) 10weeks up??part 7-
Week nov 28 2011- week ??
Sp500 rose from 1158 to 1380
Drys rose from 2.15 to
Done on 26jan2012
1)1st 9weeks up
Mar9 2009 week to MAY4th 2009 week-
sp500 up from 683 to 929
Drys
Mar2 2009 week to May 4th 2009 week: drys up from 3.34 to 11 highest but close may4th 2009 week at 7.7
2)resting period 1
may11th 2009 week to jul6th 2009 week
sp500 down from 929 to 879
Drys Drop from 7.7 to 5.07
3)10weeks part 2
(jul 13 2009 week- sept14 2009 week)
Sp500 up from 879 to 1068
Drys up from 5.07 to 7.7 but close at 7
4)resting period 2(sept21 week to oct26 week 2009)
Sp500 Close at 1036 from 1068(-3%)
Drys: Down from 7 usd to 5.7usd
5)10weeks up part3(nov2,2009 week to jan4th 2010 week)
Sp500 close at1144
Drys up from 5.8 to 6.6(last week surge)
6)resting period 3(jan11 2010 week to feb1 2010)
Sp500 drop from 1144 to 1066
Drys drop from 6.6usd to 5.16 usd
7) 10weeks up part 4(feb 15 to apr 19 2010)
Sp500 up from 1075 to 1219
Drys up from 5.1 to 6.6(drys hit 6.6 in apr 12 week, apr 19 week close at 5.92
8)resting period 4:week apr 26 2010- week 28th june 2010
DRAMA TITLE:EURO CRISES part A
a)dropping phase- sp500 dropped from 1219 to 1022
drys dropped from 6.56 to 3.2usd
b)rising phase but NOT next 10weeks up(1st testing)
week start 5th july to august 23rd 2010
sp500 rose from 1022 to 1064
drys rose from 3.3 usd hit a high of 4.80 in week of aug9 2010 ,and end at 3.9 usd at week august 23 2010
9)10weeks up part 5
Week August 30 2010-nov 1st 2010 week
Sp500 rose from 1064-1225
Drys rose from 3.9 to 4.6 usd
10)resting period 5-week nov 8 2010 to week nov 22 2010
Sp500 dropped from 1225 to 1189
DRYS ROSE FROM 4.5 to 5 usd
11)12weeks up part 6-nov 29 2010 to feb14 2011
Sp500 rose from 1189 to 1344
Drys rose from 5 to 6.19 on week dec 13 2010, and started tumbling(fake breakout 1) ended feb14 2010 at 4.838
12)resting period 6-
DRAMA TITLE:Euro crises part B
a) dropping phase
april 25 week 2011-sept 26 2011week
sp500 dropped from 1370 to 1130
drys drooped from 4.8 to 2.34 usd (hitting low of 2.1on aug 8 week)
b) rising phase but NOT next 10weeks up
oct3 2011 week –nov21 2011
sp500 rose from 1130 to 1158
drys DROPPED from 2.34 to 2.15 usd(hitting 1.75 low on oct 3week)
13) 10weeks up??part 7-
Week nov 28 2011- week ??
Sp500 rose from 1158 to 1380
Drys rose from 2.15 to
Monday, January 23, 2012
23jan2012-assuming if this statement comes true and coal prices dont fall from here,mercator is VERY UNDERVALUED NOW
"By the next fiscal year, the coal business will likely account for 60% of the total revenue, while shipping will diminish even further as we have no plans of expanding it for now," Mr. Agarwal said.
MY COMMENTS-ASSUMING COAL PRICES DONT PLUNGE FROM NOW.mercator coal biz will be 60% of the revenue, meaning coal fell from (2008 highs)180- 120 now(australian coal price as a reference to mozambique coal price) only a 30% fall whereas BDI fell from 11700 to 860,92% plunge.
we use the ratio of 60% coal,30%shipping to gauge a fair value of mercator's "true" plunge percentage.IF 60% COAL,30%SHIPPING WERE TO STAY,MERCATOR SHOULD BE VALUED AT 0.6 X 30% + 0.3 X 90% = 45% FALL IN THE PRICE FROM 76C HIGHEST IN 2008 TO AROUND 42C,WHICH IS ALSO AROUND THE COMPANY'S NAV.
13c to 42c SUCH A HUGE GAP !!!!
13C IS A FAIR VALUE IF MERCATOR IS 100% INTO SHIPPING BUT IT IS NOT.IT IS A ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION PLAY.
look at cosco china,1919.hk.it is not in coal mining so the price of 4.4HKD from 40s HKD is a fair and just valuation of BDI plunge amount of 90%
--THE AUTHOR IS CURRENTLY VESTED
MY COMMENTS-ASSUMING COAL PRICES DONT PLUNGE FROM NOW.mercator coal biz will be 60% of the revenue, meaning coal fell from (2008 highs)180- 120 now(australian coal price as a reference to mozambique coal price) only a 30% fall whereas BDI fell from 11700 to 860,92% plunge.
we use the ratio of 60% coal,30%shipping to gauge a fair value of mercator's "true" plunge percentage.IF 60% COAL,30%SHIPPING WERE TO STAY,MERCATOR SHOULD BE VALUED AT 0.6 X 30% + 0.3 X 90% = 45% FALL IN THE PRICE FROM 76C HIGHEST IN 2008 TO AROUND 42C,WHICH IS ALSO AROUND THE COMPANY'S NAV.
13c to 42c SUCH A HUGE GAP !!!!
13C IS A FAIR VALUE IF MERCATOR IS 100% INTO SHIPPING BUT IT IS NOT.IT IS A ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION PLAY.
look at cosco china,1919.hk.it is not in coal mining so the price of 4.4HKD from 40s HKD is a fair and just valuation of BDI plunge amount of 90%
--THE AUTHOR IS CURRENTLY VESTED
23rd jan2012-why mercator lines is a screaming buy
business June29 2011,3.38a.m. ET
Mercator Plans Share Sale for Singapore Coal Unit IPO ..
By ANIRBAN CHOWDHURY
MUMBAI – Mercator Lines Ltd. plans to raise $150 million by January via an initial share sale of its Singapore-based coal exploration and mining unit, the managing director of the Indian shipping and logistics company said.
"We will not look at divesting more than 30% of the company's shareholding to the public," Atul Agarwal said recently.
The unit, called Oorja HoldingsPte. Ltd., owns coal mines in Mozambique and Indonesia.
Mr. Agarwal said Mercator will soon appoint bankers for the issue, which is likely to happen either in Singapore or London.
Mercator's listing plan mirrors its increasing shift in focus towards the fast-growing coal business. For the year ended March 31, the company's coal and logistics segment posted sales of 13.88 billion rupees ($308 million), about 49% of its total consolidated sales, and up more than three times in absolute terms from the previous year. In contrast, sales from the shipping business, previously its mainstay, rose just 7% and accounted for 46% of the total.
Mercator isn't alone in shifting away from the shipping business, which is still affected by weak freight and tanker rates despite a recovery in global trade. Essar Shipping, Ports and Logistics Ltd. has hived off and listed its ports business under a separate entity.
"By the next fiscal year, the coal business will likely account for 60% of the total revenue, while shipping will diminish even further as we have no plans of expanding it for now," Mr. Agarwal said.
India's companies are trying to buy coal mines overseas as local supplies aren't enough to meet rising demand for the fossil fuel in the world's second-fastest growing major economy. The power sector is the biggest consumer of coal and more than half of India's power generation capacity of 174.36 gigawatts is coal-based.
Mercator already has a ship-operations unit based and listed in Singapore.
Mr. Agarwal also said Mercator's new coal mine in Indonesia will begin production by December. The company has already invested $12.5 million in the mine, which has reserves of 25 million tons, and plans to invest an additional $12.5 million by December, he added.
Mercator is also in talks with several overseas companies for oil storage and processing contracts, Mr. Agarwal said. It recently signed a pact with U.K.-based Afren PLC for a similar contract that entails the use of a floating production, storage and offloading unit.
Mr. Agarwal said the company will invest in more such units worth $250 million-$300 million each if it gets more contracts.
Mercator, which owns four dredgers, plans to buy two more by December for a total of $30 million-$35 million as it expects more dredging contracts in India, Mr. Agarwal said.
He said the company plans to repay $100 million by the end of March out of a total consolidated debt of 32 billion rupees. Mercator may also raise debt of $35 million this year to fund its expansion plan, he added.
Write to Anirban Chowdhury at anirban.chowdhury@dowjones.com
Mercator Lines to launch IPO of coal division by year-end
Published on Thu, Jun 30, 2011 at 11:30
Source : CNBC-TV18
Mercator Lines to launch IPO of coal division by year-endMercator Lines is planning to launch an initial public offer (IPO) of coal division by year-end, said the company�s Joint MD Atul Agarwal in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18
Mercator Lines is planning to launch an initial public offer (IPO) of coal division by year-end, said the company's Joint MD Atul Agarwal in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
The company, he said, will raise USD 150 million by divesting 20% in coal mining arm. "The listing will be outside India, either in Singapore or London."
Below is the transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Can you confirm that you are looking to launch the IPO of the coal mining unit?
A: Yes, we are planning the issue by the year-end for the coal division.
Q: Would it be, as reported, USD 150 million kind of a share sale?
A: We are looking to raise in that region.
Q: USD 150 million?
A: Right, approximately.
Q: By selling how much stake in the coal mining unit?
A: About 20%.
Q: So do you think the coal mining business would have a marketcap of USD 750 million?
A: That is correct. That is what we believe.
Q: Would you do the IPO here in the Indian market or somewhere else?
A: Unlikely in India because coal business is housed in the Singapore subsidiary. So, it will happen outside of India.
Q: In Singapore?
A: Likely, either in Singapore or London Stock Exchange.
Q: What would Mercator's holding in that, would it own 80% of that venture post the IPO?
A: That is correct.
Q: You are not looking to liquidate any further stake in that, right?
A: No.
Q: Is there any talk of a pre-IPO placement at all in that subsidiary?
A: Not as yet.
Q: What kind of revenue and profit profile does the coal mining business have at this point?
A: For the year ended March 31, 2011 i.e. current year, the total revenue from the coal division was roughly USD 280 million. We had a profitability close to about USD 18 million.
Q: What would Mercator want to do with that USD 150 million, if it can raise that through the share sale?
A: It will obviously look at investing it again in the coal business, expanding the coal business further.
Q: You don't want to give back some of that capital to shareholders of Mercator, would you?
A: That is something which has not been decided as yet, that is something we will take a call on as we go ahead.
Q: Have you started discussions with lead managers already?
A: We have discussed with a few, but we have not finalised anything as yet.
Q: So, by when do you think road shows can happen and you can file for a listing?
A: That will not happen probably before October-November because we are targeting it by the year-end.
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Mercator’s 2007 diversification plan shields it in tough times
The decision to branch out into the energy business has partially shielded Mercator from the tough times its peers in the shipping industry are facing because of an oversupply of vessels, low freight rates and mounting lossesP.R. Sanjai Mumbai: At the peak of the shipping industry boom in 2007, Mercator Lines Ltd decided to diversify its business, a decision that predictably met with little approval from experts and analysts.
The right time: Managing director Atul Agarwal says that though many criticized the decision to expand to other businesses, Mercator felt it was the right time to do as it had cash then.
The decision to branch out into the energy business has partially shielded Mercator from the tough times its peers in the shipping industry are facing because of an oversupply of vessels, low freight rates and mounting losses.
“The shipping industry was enjoying golden years during 2005-2007, with high freight rates,” Atul J. Agarwal, managing director of the company, said in an interview. “But during internal discussions, we felt that good things will also come to an end. Though many criticized (the move), we felt that it was the right time to expand into other businesses as we had cash then.”
Mercator, which dropped “Lines” from its name in November to reflect its new businesses, has since ventured into the coal mining, offshore services, dredging and oil exploration-industries that are less cyclical than shipping. For Mercator, the gamble has paid off. It has maintained its profitability even as Shipping Corp. of India Ltd (SCI), the nation’s biggest ocean carrier, reported losses.
Mint’s P R Sanjai says the outlook for Indian shipping remains bleak and that private players like Mercator are diversifying.
Loading Video
“We would like to be known as (an) energy and transportation company in the next three years,” said Agarwal, 54.
Mercator is now in talks with investment bankers for selling shares to the public in its coal mining business for the first time next year, said Agarwal. The company has two coal mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique. Mercator is also in talks with an Indonesian firm to purchase a coal mine.
Shipping companies are now facing one of the worst times in history, with seaborne trading volume falling 60% since 2007. Mercator posted a net profit of Rs. 21.4 crore in the six months ended 30 September on sales of Rs. 1,584 crore, with the coal business contributing 60% of the revenue, shipping 30%, 5% from dredging, and the rest from services to offshore oil exploration.
In comparison, state-run SCI posted a loss for a third consecutive time in the quarter ended September.
On the other hand, the largest private sector shipping company, Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd (GE Shipping), managed to report a net profit in the September quarter, because the company’s offshore business has performed comparatively better than the shipping business and boosted the company’s overall performance.
The financial turmoil across the world has adversely affected the vessel freight rates, with shipowners continuing to scrap vessels since the economic recession, according to rating agency Credit Analysis and Research Ltd (CARE).
“The flow of vessel deliveries during the period of January–September 2011, aggregating 73.8 million gross tonnes, further compounded the problem of shipowners with the existent global fleet already in overcapacity,” CARE said in a November report.
To be sure, SCI always wanted to diversify into other sectors including offshore, but the company’s chairman and managing, S. Hajara, said it is not a great idea to diversify when the economy is slowing.
“I have not seen a recession to this extent for shipping, and in the last 25 years, we have not seen this level of freight rates. Overall, the industry is getting beaten from all sides, including freight rates, rupee depreciation and excess supply,” said B.K. Mandal, director of finance at SCI. “But the offshore segment is doing comparatively better among other shipping verticals.”
Mercator spotted the opportunity of offshore services at the right time and “spread the risk”, said another senior executive at a leading consulting firm, requesting anonymity. “When the company had cash, it bravely explored new avenues. Offshore has assured enough cushion for Mercator.”
Mercator entered the offshore services sector by acquiring a jack-up oil drilling rig in 2007 to help companies explore oil. But the company later sold its two rigs and exited the business. In 2010, Mercator won a contract for providing a floating production unit from the UK’s Afren Plc. This floating production unit is a mix of a mobile offshore production unit (Mopu) and a floating storage and offloading unit (FSO). These are central to a crude oil production and processing facility for an oil field.
On 17 November, a consortium grouping Mercator and Gulf Piping Co. WLL of Abu Dhabi was awarded a contract by Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. for conversion of its mobile offshore drilling unit (Modu) to Mopu.
“The rig was a commodity business. Mopu and FSO are part of the production process and are specially designed for the company’s requirements. It cannot be replaced by any other Mopu, like a rig. So we are on the revenue side of an oil company with long-term contracts,” Agarwal said.
The consultant cited earlier said Brazil requires more than 50 FSOs while other parts of the world will need 100, and India five more. Mercator plans to bid for more business opportunities on this side.
Agarwal admitted that Mercator has not made much progress in oil exploration. The company has two oil blocks in India in the Cambay basin in western Gujarat.
“We are currently doing a seismic survey on the blocks. We are open to having partners for exploring these wells after surveys,” Agarwal said.
Not everyone is convinced about Mercator’s strategy. Even though Manish Saigal, partner (advisory services) and national industry head of transport and logistics at consulting firm KPMG India Pvt. Ltd, endorses the idea of creating a counter-cyclical business to cut dependency on shipping, he says the businesses should be synergestic and closely linked with a company’s core business.
When a company builds unrelated lines of businesses, the capital market tends to discount valuations, Saigal said.
Mercator, however, has no plans to exit the shipping business.
“Shipping gave credibility to us and we have no plans to exit shipping or downsize,” Agarwal said. “On the contrary, we are not averse to buy old or new ships. There are no immediate acquisition plans; the purchase plans would be opportunity-based.”
The company has plans to buy more dredging ships that are into deepening shipping channels near a port. Mercator owns six dredgers.
pr.sanjai@livemint.com
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Mercator Plans Share Sale for Singapore Coal Unit IPO ..
By ANIRBAN CHOWDHURY
MUMBAI – Mercator Lines Ltd. plans to raise $150 million by January via an initial share sale of its Singapore-based coal exploration and mining unit, the managing director of the Indian shipping and logistics company said.
"We will not look at divesting more than 30% of the company's shareholding to the public," Atul Agarwal said recently.
The unit, called Oorja HoldingsPte. Ltd., owns coal mines in Mozambique and Indonesia.
Mr. Agarwal said Mercator will soon appoint bankers for the issue, which is likely to happen either in Singapore or London.
Mercator's listing plan mirrors its increasing shift in focus towards the fast-growing coal business. For the year ended March 31, the company's coal and logistics segment posted sales of 13.88 billion rupees ($308 million), about 49% of its total consolidated sales, and up more than three times in absolute terms from the previous year. In contrast, sales from the shipping business, previously its mainstay, rose just 7% and accounted for 46% of the total.
Mercator isn't alone in shifting away from the shipping business, which is still affected by weak freight and tanker rates despite a recovery in global trade. Essar Shipping, Ports and Logistics Ltd. has hived off and listed its ports business under a separate entity.
"By the next fiscal year, the coal business will likely account for 60% of the total revenue, while shipping will diminish even further as we have no plans of expanding it for now," Mr. Agarwal said.
India's companies are trying to buy coal mines overseas as local supplies aren't enough to meet rising demand for the fossil fuel in the world's second-fastest growing major economy. The power sector is the biggest consumer of coal and more than half of India's power generation capacity of 174.36 gigawatts is coal-based.
Mercator already has a ship-operations unit based and listed in Singapore.
Mr. Agarwal also said Mercator's new coal mine in Indonesia will begin production by December. The company has already invested $12.5 million in the mine, which has reserves of 25 million tons, and plans to invest an additional $12.5 million by December, he added.
Mercator is also in talks with several overseas companies for oil storage and processing contracts, Mr. Agarwal said. It recently signed a pact with U.K.-based Afren PLC for a similar contract that entails the use of a floating production, storage and offloading unit.
Mr. Agarwal said the company will invest in more such units worth $250 million-$300 million each if it gets more contracts.
Mercator, which owns four dredgers, plans to buy two more by December for a total of $30 million-$35 million as it expects more dredging contracts in India, Mr. Agarwal said.
He said the company plans to repay $100 million by the end of March out of a total consolidated debt of 32 billion rupees. Mercator may also raise debt of $35 million this year to fund its expansion plan, he added.
Write to Anirban Chowdhury at anirban.chowdhury@dowjones.com
Mercator Lines to launch IPO of coal division by year-end
Published on Thu, Jun 30, 2011 at 11:30
Source : CNBC-TV18
Mercator Lines to launch IPO of coal division by year-endMercator Lines is planning to launch an initial public offer (IPO) of coal division by year-end, said the company�s Joint MD Atul Agarwal in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18
Mercator Lines is planning to launch an initial public offer (IPO) of coal division by year-end, said the company's Joint MD Atul Agarwal in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
The company, he said, will raise USD 150 million by divesting 20% in coal mining arm. "The listing will be outside India, either in Singapore or London."
Below is the transcript of his interview with CNBC-TV18's Udayan Mukherjee and Sonia Shenoy. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: Can you confirm that you are looking to launch the IPO of the coal mining unit?
A: Yes, we are planning the issue by the year-end for the coal division.
Q: Would it be, as reported, USD 150 million kind of a share sale?
A: We are looking to raise in that region.
Q: USD 150 million?
A: Right, approximately.
Q: By selling how much stake in the coal mining unit?
A: About 20%.
Q: So do you think the coal mining business would have a marketcap of USD 750 million?
A: That is correct. That is what we believe.
Q: Would you do the IPO here in the Indian market or somewhere else?
A: Unlikely in India because coal business is housed in the Singapore subsidiary. So, it will happen outside of India.
Q: In Singapore?
A: Likely, either in Singapore or London Stock Exchange.
Q: What would Mercator's holding in that, would it own 80% of that venture post the IPO?
A: That is correct.
Q: You are not looking to liquidate any further stake in that, right?
A: No.
Q: Is there any talk of a pre-IPO placement at all in that subsidiary?
A: Not as yet.
Q: What kind of revenue and profit profile does the coal mining business have at this point?
A: For the year ended March 31, 2011 i.e. current year, the total revenue from the coal division was roughly USD 280 million. We had a profitability close to about USD 18 million.
Q: What would Mercator want to do with that USD 150 million, if it can raise that through the share sale?
A: It will obviously look at investing it again in the coal business, expanding the coal business further.
Q: You don't want to give back some of that capital to shareholders of Mercator, would you?
A: That is something which has not been decided as yet, that is something we will take a call on as we go ahead.
Q: Have you started discussions with lead managers already?
A: We have discussed with a few, but we have not finalised anything as yet.
Q: So, by when do you think road shows can happen and you can file for a listing?
A: That will not happen probably before October-November because we are targeting it by the year-end.
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Mercator’s 2007 diversification plan shields it in tough times
The decision to branch out into the energy business has partially shielded Mercator from the tough times its peers in the shipping industry are facing because of an oversupply of vessels, low freight rates and mounting lossesP.R. Sanjai Mumbai: At the peak of the shipping industry boom in 2007, Mercator Lines Ltd decided to diversify its business, a decision that predictably met with little approval from experts and analysts.
The right time: Managing director Atul Agarwal says that though many criticized the decision to expand to other businesses, Mercator felt it was the right time to do as it had cash then.
The decision to branch out into the energy business has partially shielded Mercator from the tough times its peers in the shipping industry are facing because of an oversupply of vessels, low freight rates and mounting losses.
“The shipping industry was enjoying golden years during 2005-2007, with high freight rates,” Atul J. Agarwal, managing director of the company, said in an interview. “But during internal discussions, we felt that good things will also come to an end. Though many criticized (the move), we felt that it was the right time to expand into other businesses as we had cash then.”
Mercator, which dropped “Lines” from its name in November to reflect its new businesses, has since ventured into the coal mining, offshore services, dredging and oil exploration-industries that are less cyclical than shipping. For Mercator, the gamble has paid off. It has maintained its profitability even as Shipping Corp. of India Ltd (SCI), the nation’s biggest ocean carrier, reported losses.
Mint’s P R Sanjai says the outlook for Indian shipping remains bleak and that private players like Mercator are diversifying.
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“We would like to be known as (an) energy and transportation company in the next three years,” said Agarwal, 54.
Mercator is now in talks with investment bankers for selling shares to the public in its coal mining business for the first time next year, said Agarwal. The company has two coal mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique. Mercator is also in talks with an Indonesian firm to purchase a coal mine.
Shipping companies are now facing one of the worst times in history, with seaborne trading volume falling 60% since 2007. Mercator posted a net profit of Rs. 21.4 crore in the six months ended 30 September on sales of Rs. 1,584 crore, with the coal business contributing 60% of the revenue, shipping 30%, 5% from dredging, and the rest from services to offshore oil exploration.
In comparison, state-run SCI posted a loss for a third consecutive time in the quarter ended September.
On the other hand, the largest private sector shipping company, Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd (GE Shipping), managed to report a net profit in the September quarter, because the company’s offshore business has performed comparatively better than the shipping business and boosted the company’s overall performance.
The financial turmoil across the world has adversely affected the vessel freight rates, with shipowners continuing to scrap vessels since the economic recession, according to rating agency Credit Analysis and Research Ltd (CARE).
“The flow of vessel deliveries during the period of January–September 2011, aggregating 73.8 million gross tonnes, further compounded the problem of shipowners with the existent global fleet already in overcapacity,” CARE said in a November report.
To be sure, SCI always wanted to diversify into other sectors including offshore, but the company’s chairman and managing, S. Hajara, said it is not a great idea to diversify when the economy is slowing.
“I have not seen a recession to this extent for shipping, and in the last 25 years, we have not seen this level of freight rates. Overall, the industry is getting beaten from all sides, including freight rates, rupee depreciation and excess supply,” said B.K. Mandal, director of finance at SCI. “But the offshore segment is doing comparatively better among other shipping verticals.”
Mercator spotted the opportunity of offshore services at the right time and “spread the risk”, said another senior executive at a leading consulting firm, requesting anonymity. “When the company had cash, it bravely explored new avenues. Offshore has assured enough cushion for Mercator.”
Mercator entered the offshore services sector by acquiring a jack-up oil drilling rig in 2007 to help companies explore oil. But the company later sold its two rigs and exited the business. In 2010, Mercator won a contract for providing a floating production unit from the UK’s Afren Plc. This floating production unit is a mix of a mobile offshore production unit (Mopu) and a floating storage and offloading unit (FSO). These are central to a crude oil production and processing facility for an oil field.
On 17 November, a consortium grouping Mercator and Gulf Piping Co. WLL of Abu Dhabi was awarded a contract by Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. for conversion of its mobile offshore drilling unit (Modu) to Mopu.
“The rig was a commodity business. Mopu and FSO are part of the production process and are specially designed for the company’s requirements. It cannot be replaced by any other Mopu, like a rig. So we are on the revenue side of an oil company with long-term contracts,” Agarwal said.
The consultant cited earlier said Brazil requires more than 50 FSOs while other parts of the world will need 100, and India five more. Mercator plans to bid for more business opportunities on this side.
Agarwal admitted that Mercator has not made much progress in oil exploration. The company has two oil blocks in India in the Cambay basin in western Gujarat.
“We are currently doing a seismic survey on the blocks. We are open to having partners for exploring these wells after surveys,” Agarwal said.
Not everyone is convinced about Mercator’s strategy. Even though Manish Saigal, partner (advisory services) and national industry head of transport and logistics at consulting firm KPMG India Pvt. Ltd, endorses the idea of creating a counter-cyclical business to cut dependency on shipping, he says the businesses should be synergestic and closely linked with a company’s core business.
When a company builds unrelated lines of businesses, the capital market tends to discount valuations, Saigal said.
Mercator, however, has no plans to exit the shipping business.
“Shipping gave credibility to us and we have no plans to exit shipping or downsize,” Agarwal said. “On the contrary, we are not averse to buy old or new ships. There are no immediate acquisition plans; the purchase plans would be opportunity-based.”
The company has plans to buy more dredging ships that are into deepening shipping channels near a port. Mercator owns six dredgers.
pr.sanjai@livemint.com
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23jan2012-funny singaporeans still think the BDI plunge is scary--OBVIOUS THEY DIDNT DO RESEARCH INTO EVERY YEAR BDI TRENDS,or he has not come to my blog
Today 01:52 AM #1 sgbuyers
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Posts:814BDI chart shows china is in deep shiit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
BDI fell from 2000 points to 860 points in just 5 weeks!
Something is very wrong.
MY COMMENTS:I HAVE POSTED EARLIER ON THAT BDI ALWAYS PLUNGE IN NOV TO FEB OF NEXT YEAR
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Join Date:Sep 2011
Posts:814BDI chart shows china is in deep shiit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
BDI fell from 2000 points to 860 points in just 5 weeks!
Something is very wrong.
MY COMMENTS:I HAVE POSTED EARLIER ON THAT BDI ALWAYS PLUNGE IN NOV TO FEB OF NEXT YEAR
Sunday, January 22, 2012
22jan2012-NOW COMES THIS NEWS..NEWS IS INDEED CONFUSING RIGHT????LISTEN TO NEWS YOU WILL SURE DIE
IIF Says Greek Debt Talks Have Not Broken Down
Published: Saturday, 21 Jan 2012
1:15 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters with CNBC.com Twitter
The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default, sources close to the negotiations told Reuters.
However, that doesn't mean that the talks have broken down — "quite the contrary" — a representative for the Institute of International Finance said Saturday.
Reports that Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre, co-chairs of the steering committee, left Athens "unexpectedly" are "quite untrue" the IIF said.
"Talks are continuing. Mr. Dallara and Mr. Lemierre have had longstanding personal appointments outside of Greece and they both left Athens today for Paris, as had long been scheduled. Their visit to Paris has nothing to do with the PSI discussions," The IIF said. "They are both fully available to the Greek government's leadership by telephone should this be necessary. "
Negotiations were expected to continue over the phone during the weekend but it is unlikely that an agreement can be clinched before next week, sources said, as Athens races against the clock to strike a deal.
A lot of progress has been made on the details of the plan during talks between Athens and IIF chief Charles Dallara, sources say, but any deal needs the approval of the IMF and euro zone countries, who insist on a substantial cut in the debt load.
The IMF and EU countries, and in particular the bloc's paymaster Germany, want to make sure the deal puts Greece's derailed finances back on a sustainable track before they agree to a new, 130-billion euro bailout, which is also crucial to avoid a messy default.
The IMF insists the debt swap deal must ensure Greece's debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by the fact that Athens' economic prospects have deteriorated since.
"Things are complicated, we are getting closer on the numbers but there is still quite some work ahead," one source close to the talks said. "Discussions will continue over the phone this weekend but an agreement is unlikely before next week, if there is an agreement at all."
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 01:03:37 21 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 46068997
Greek Default Won't Lessen Contagion Risk: StrategistGreece, Creditors Near Debt Swap Deal With 70% LossGreek PM Says Hands Off the European Central Bank
A meeting Monday of euro zone finance ministers will be crucial for the debt swap talks. "We will want to test the waters among member states because given the complex connections between private sector and official funding elements, we have to have the backing of member states for a deal," a senior EU source told Reuters.
"The outcome in terms of achieving the debt-to-GDP target will depend on how the debt sustainability analysis is constructed, which is not a precise science but at most a form of art," the source said.
A new analysis of Greece's debt sustainability could be ready before Monday's Eurogroup, or by mid-week, the source said.
The IIF said on Friday that the elements of the deal were coming into place, adding: "Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy."
The statement seemed to be addressing Greece's official lenders, the EU and the IMF, who have driven a hard bargain behind the scenes of the negotiations, insisting that the deal must slash Greece's debt substantially, sources in Athens said.
"The euro zone ministers will examine the proposal and say whether we have a deal. If they say we don't, we're back to the negotiating table," said a banking source close to the talks.
Private bondholders will likely take a hit of 65 to 70 percent on their holdings, with Greece's new bonds featuring 30-year maturity and a progressive coupon, or interest rate, averaging out at 4 percent, another banking official close to the talks told Reuters.
A 15 percent cash sweetener will be made up of short-term bonds from Europe's temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) , two sources told Reuters.
Haggling over the coupon had held up the long-running talks as Greece raced to wrap up an agreement, raising the prospect of a messy default when Athens faces 14.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion) of bond repayments in March.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Published: Saturday, 21 Jan 2012
1:15 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters with CNBC.com Twitter
The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default, sources close to the negotiations told Reuters.
However, that doesn't mean that the talks have broken down — "quite the contrary" — a representative for the Institute of International Finance said Saturday.
Reports that Charles Dallara and Jean Lemierre, co-chairs of the steering committee, left Athens "unexpectedly" are "quite untrue" the IIF said.
"Talks are continuing. Mr. Dallara and Mr. Lemierre have had longstanding personal appointments outside of Greece and they both left Athens today for Paris, as had long been scheduled. Their visit to Paris has nothing to do with the PSI discussions," The IIF said. "They are both fully available to the Greek government's leadership by telephone should this be necessary. "
Negotiations were expected to continue over the phone during the weekend but it is unlikely that an agreement can be clinched before next week, sources said, as Athens races against the clock to strike a deal.
A lot of progress has been made on the details of the plan during talks between Athens and IIF chief Charles Dallara, sources say, but any deal needs the approval of the IMF and euro zone countries, who insist on a substantial cut in the debt load.
The IMF and EU countries, and in particular the bloc's paymaster Germany, want to make sure the deal puts Greece's derailed finances back on a sustainable track before they agree to a new, 130-billion euro bailout, which is also crucial to avoid a messy default.
The IMF insists the debt swap deal must ensure Greece's debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by the fact that Athens' economic prospects have deteriorated since.
"Things are complicated, we are getting closer on the numbers but there is still quite some work ahead," one source close to the talks said. "Discussions will continue over the phone this weekend but an agreement is unlikely before next week, if there is an agreement at all."
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 01:03:37 21 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 46068997
Greek Default Won't Lessen Contagion Risk: StrategistGreece, Creditors Near Debt Swap Deal With 70% LossGreek PM Says Hands Off the European Central Bank
A meeting Monday of euro zone finance ministers will be crucial for the debt swap talks. "We will want to test the waters among member states because given the complex connections between private sector and official funding elements, we have to have the backing of member states for a deal," a senior EU source told Reuters.
"The outcome in terms of achieving the debt-to-GDP target will depend on how the debt sustainability analysis is constructed, which is not a precise science but at most a form of art," the source said.
A new analysis of Greece's debt sustainability could be ready before Monday's Eurogroup, or by mid-week, the source said.
The IIF said on Friday that the elements of the deal were coming into place, adding: "Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy."
The statement seemed to be addressing Greece's official lenders, the EU and the IMF, who have driven a hard bargain behind the scenes of the negotiations, insisting that the deal must slash Greece's debt substantially, sources in Athens said.
"The euro zone ministers will examine the proposal and say whether we have a deal. If they say we don't, we're back to the negotiating table," said a banking source close to the talks.
Private bondholders will likely take a hit of 65 to 70 percent on their holdings, with Greece's new bonds featuring 30-year maturity and a progressive coupon, or interest rate, averaging out at 4 percent, another banking official close to the talks told Reuters.
A 15 percent cash sweetener will be made up of short-term bonds from Europe's temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) , two sources told Reuters.
Haggling over the coupon had held up the long-running talks as Greece raced to wrap up an agreement, raising the prospect of a messy default when Athens faces 14.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion) of bond repayments in March.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
22jan2012-a collection of hongkong property analysis
陪您睇樓──新界東．寶林∕坑口
寶林站及坑口站一帶是將軍澳區較早發展的地方，寶林附近的物業於九十年代興建，樓齡由12至18年不等；坑口的物業較新，樓齡最輕的蔚藍灣畔只有8年，其餘最舊的東港城為15年。寶林的物業只有新都城有會所，其餘屋苑只設簡單設施；坑口的屋苑全部自設會所，硬件上較優勝。若以樓價而論，寶林及坑口區為將軍澳區的中等水平，二手呎價比新發展的將軍澳南平，但比位置偏遠的日出康城高，似乎早先鞭之利並未為寶林及坑口帶來優勢，反而因發展飽和令社區定型，無論商業價值及未來發展也受到局限。
區內住宅物業都在港鐵站附近，最遠的怡心園、慧安園及富麗花園步行至寶林站只需約十分鐘。正因為較早發展，無論在交通及商業發展比起其他地區都贏在起跑線，除了港鐵外，寶林及坑口有多線巴士線前往各區，也一早有通宵巴士接駁，令居民無需在半夜港鐵停止服務後受到交通真空之苦。寶林區有新都城商場，除一般生活所需外，也有戲院等消閒設施；坑口各屋苑都自設商場，各商場定位及格局接近，令人流未能集中，商業檔次未能提升。
將軍澳的商業重心將逐漸向南移，將軍澳站已有將軍澳中心、將軍澳廣場、君傲灣等商場，加上天晉後連接一起，並有兩座酒店，加上前臨大片住宅用地陸續發展，使人流更集中該處，導致新都城商場的重要性相對降低。另外寶林及坑口的用地已用盡，一方面可以解讀為沒有新供應與二手物業競爭，負面一點看就是沒有新物業，同區住客想換樓改善環境只有往其他地區入手，在缺乏俄羅斯公仔效應支持下，樓價最多只能跟大市同步，條件稍遜的更會跑輸。
寶林及坑口區的物業是將軍澳區中最舊的一群，硬件輸蝕，加上從物業代理的數據顯示，部分物業是九七高峰時轉手，價錢仍然未返家鄉，儘管供樓多年已清還不少本金，呎價卻被鄰近的半新樓逐漸拋離，想同區換樓也有一定難度，令該批物業持有人只好繼續持有物業。物業價格除了靠硬件及交通配套支持外，成交量也是指標之一，在欠缺龐大成交量支持下，樓價自然會輸蝕下去。
綜合上面所述，無疑寶林及坑口的物業受到多方局限，但始終有臨近港鐵站的優勢，前往港島東的商業區上班十分方便，為不少承受不起港島樓價的上班一族提供一個平一點的選擇，加上起居飲食等商業配套十分完善，使寶林及坑口區的居住價值得以維持，不過投資價值就欠奉了，只有真正的上蓋物業如新都城、東港城及蔚藍灣畔可以憑地利略為跑贏大市。
寶林站及坑口站一帶是將軍澳區較早發展的地方，寶林附近的物業於九十年代興建，樓齡由12至18年不等；坑口的物業較新，樓齡最輕的蔚藍灣畔只有8年，其餘最舊的東港城為15年。寶林的物業只有新都城有會所，其餘屋苑只設簡單設施；坑口的屋苑全部自設會所，硬件上較優勝。若以樓價而論，寶林及坑口區為將軍澳區的中等水平，二手呎價比新發展的將軍澳南平，但比位置偏遠的日出康城高，似乎早先鞭之利並未為寶林及坑口帶來優勢，反而因發展飽和令社區定型，無論商業價值及未來發展也受到局限。
區內住宅物業都在港鐵站附近，最遠的怡心園、慧安園及富麗花園步行至寶林站只需約十分鐘。正因為較早發展，無論在交通及商業發展比起其他地區都贏在起跑線，除了港鐵外，寶林及坑口有多線巴士線前往各區，也一早有通宵巴士接駁，令居民無需在半夜港鐵停止服務後受到交通真空之苦。寶林區有新都城商場，除一般生活所需外，也有戲院等消閒設施；坑口各屋苑都自設商場，各商場定位及格局接近，令人流未能集中，商業檔次未能提升。
將軍澳的商業重心將逐漸向南移，將軍澳站已有將軍澳中心、將軍澳廣場、君傲灣等商場，加上天晉後連接一起，並有兩座酒店，加上前臨大片住宅用地陸續發展，使人流更集中該處，導致新都城商場的重要性相對降低。另外寶林及坑口的用地已用盡，一方面可以解讀為沒有新供應與二手物業競爭，負面一點看就是沒有新物業，同區住客想換樓改善環境只有往其他地區入手，在缺乏俄羅斯公仔效應支持下，樓價最多只能跟大市同步，條件稍遜的更會跑輸。
寶林及坑口區的物業是將軍澳區中最舊的一群，硬件輸蝕，加上從物業代理的數據顯示，部分物業是九七高峰時轉手，價錢仍然未返家鄉，儘管供樓多年已清還不少本金，呎價卻被鄰近的半新樓逐漸拋離，想同區換樓也有一定難度，令該批物業持有人只好繼續持有物業。物業價格除了靠硬件及交通配套支持外，成交量也是指標之一，在欠缺龐大成交量支持下，樓價自然會輸蝕下去。
綜合上面所述，無疑寶林及坑口的物業受到多方局限，但始終有臨近港鐵站的優勢，前往港島東的商業區上班十分方便，為不少承受不起港島樓價的上班一族提供一個平一點的選擇，加上起居飲食等商業配套十分完善，使寶林及坑口區的居住價值得以維持，不過投資價值就欠奉了，只有真正的上蓋物業如新都城、東港城及蔚藍灣畔可以憑地利略為跑贏大市。
22JAN2012-2 CONFLICTING NEWS AT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMES--WHO TO BELIEVE?i dont care about news.i just know its uptrend UNLESS it breaks the 7th 10weeks diagonal uptrendline from lows
Greece's Creditors Leave Athens; Talks to Continue
Published: Saturday, 21 Jan 2012
8:47 AM ET Text Size By: Reuters Twitter
The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens unexpectedly on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default, sources close to the negotiations told Reuters.
Scott E. Barbour
Negotiations will continue over the phone during the weekend but it is unlikely that an agreement can be clinched before next week, the sources said, as Athens races against the clock to strike a deal.
A lot of progress has been made on the details of the plan during talks between Athens and Institute of International Finance chief Charles Dallara, sources say, but any deal needs the approval of the IMF and euro zone countries, who insist on a substantial cut in the debt load.
The IMF and EU countries, and in particular the bloc's paymaster Germany, want to make sure the deal puts Greece's derailed finances back on a sustainable track before they agree to a new, 130-billion euro bailout, which is also crucial to avoid a messy default.
The IMF insists the debt swap deal must ensure Greece's debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by the fact that Athens' economic prospects have deteriorated since.
"Things are complicated, we are getting closer on the numbers but there is still quite some work ahead," one source close to the talks said. "Discussions will continue over the phone this weekend but an agreement is unlikely before next week, if there is an agreement at all."
Greek Default Won't Lessen Contagion Risk: StrategistGreece, Creditors Near Debt Swap Deal With 70% LossGreek PM Says Hands Off the European Central Bank
A meeting Monday of euro zone finance ministers will be crucial for the debt swap talks. "We will want to test the waters among member states because given the complex connections between private sector and official funding elements, we have to have the backing of member states for a deal," a senior EU source told Reuters.
"The outcome in terms of achieving the debt-to-GDP target will depend on how the debt sustainability analysis is constructed, which is not a precise science but at most a form of art," the source said.
A new analysis of Greece's debt sustainability could be ready before Monday's Eurogroup, or by mid-week, the source said.
The IIF said on Friday that the elements of the deal were coming into place, adding: "Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy."
The statement seemed to be addressing Greece's official lenders, the EU and the IMF, who have driven a hard bargain behind the scenes of the negotiations, insisting that the deal must slash Greece's debt substantially, sources in Athens said.
"The euro zone ministers will examine the proposal and say whether we have a deal. If they say we don't, we're back to the negotiating table," said a banking source close to the talks.
Private bondholders will likely take a hit of 65 to 70 percent on their holdings, with Greece's new bonds featuring 30-year maturity and a progressive coupon, or interest rate, averaging out at 4 percent, another banking official close to the talks told Reuters.
A 15 percent cash sweetener will be made up of short-term bonds from Europe's temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) , two sources told Reuters.
Haggling over the coupon had held up the long-running talks as Greece raced to wrap up an agreement, raising the prospect of a messy default when Athens faces 14.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion) of bond repayments in March.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Greek Debt-Swap Accord ‘Coming Into Place’
QBy Marcus Bensasson, Natalie Weeks and Maria Petrakis - Jan 21, 2012 8:17 AM GMT+0800
Business Exchange Buzz up! Digg Print Email Enlarge image
Greek Debt-Swap Deal 'Coming Into Place' Angelos Tzortzinis/Bloomberg
Greece and its private creditors said early today they had made progress during talks in Athens on a debt-swap accord needed to lower the country’s borrowings and clear the way for a second round of international aid.
“The elements of an unprecedented voluntary private-sector involvement are coming into place,” according to an e-mailed statement from Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based lobby group representing creditors negotiating with the government.
European officials and the nation’s private bondholders agreed in October to implement a 50 percent cut in the face value of Greek debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, with a goal of reducing Greece’s borrowings to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. An accord with bondholders is key to a second financing package for the cash- strapped country, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($18.7 billion) bond payment on March 20.
“Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy,” Dallara said in a joint statement with Jean Lemierre, a special adviser to the chairman of BNP Paribas SA. (BNP)
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in Athens talks will continue later today, after a 4 1/2 hour meeting with the IIF officials and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos broke up about 1 a.m. in Athens. The meeting reconvened late yesterday after Greek officials broke to consult with European Union representatives.
90% Participation
“There’s been significant progress,” Hans Humes, president of Greylock Capital Management and a member of the creditor committee, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “There’s broad agreement about the coupons and structural elements.”
The parties are near an initial agreement under which old bonds would be swapped for new 30-year securities carrying a coupon that would begin at 3.1 percent, reach 3.9 percent and go as high as 4.75 percent, Athens-based newspaper Proto Thema reported on its website yesterday, without saying where it got the information.
The two sides, which broke off negotiations on Jan. 13 before resuming them three days ago, have struggled to reach an accord on the coupon and maturity of the new bonds, which would determine losses for investors.
Humes said he’s “cautiously optimistic” the talks will lead to an accord.
Weekend Deal ‘Optimistic’
“If the IIF shake hands with the other side of the table, we will have a 90 percent or higher acceptance rate,” he estimated. He declined to provide details of the discussions.
Marathon Asset Management LP Chief Executive Officer Bruce Richards estimated in a Jan. 17 interview that private creditors were likely to get cash and securities with a market value of about 32 cents per euro of government bonds in the debt accord.
Like Greylock, Marathon, which has $10 billion under management, is on the committee of 32 private creditors formed in November to negotiate with Greece, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The firms aren’t members of the smaller steering committee directly involved in negotiations.
Questions remain how the two sides can craft a voluntary deal that will provide the debt relief the Greek government requires while attracting enough participation from bondholders. The government has indicated it may submit legislation that would compel full participation from private creditors, a move that would undercut the voluntary nature of any deal and could trigger credit-default swap insurance contracts.
‘Pretty Much Set’
“The financial terms are pretty much set at this point,” Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, told Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s ‘Street Smart’. “The whole holdup now are on legal issues, and I suspect there’s some discussion on this whole collective action clause issue.”
Venizelos said on Jan. 19 that for the final deal to lead to a sustainable level of debt for the country there must be a 100 percent participation rate.
Hedge funds holding Greek bonds may resist the deal, seeking greater profit by getting paid in full, either by the Greek government or by triggering payouts from credit-default swaps. Winning support from banks seeking to limit their losses may be easier than including hedge funds and other speculators who bought securities at distressed levels.
Vega Asset Management LLC resigned from the committee of Greek creditors negotiating the debt swap last month because the Madrid-based hedge fund refused to accept a net present value loss exceeding 50 percent, according to a Dec. 7 e-mail sent to other panel members, which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Troika Mission
Greek officials also met with the so-called troika mission, which is comprised of European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF representatives, on the new 130 billion-euro financing accord for the country.
The creditors’ steering committee negotiating the debt swap includes representatives from banks and insurers with the largest holdings of Greek government bonds, including National Bank of Greece SA, BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), ING Groep NV (INGA), Allianz SE (ALV) and Axa SA. (CS)
Financial firms on the IIF’s private-creditor investor committee, a larger group of 32 members that includes the smaller steering committee, hold more than 47 billion euros in Greek sovereign debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from company reports.
To contact the reporters on this story: Marcus Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephen Foxwell at sfoxwell@bloomberg.net; Jerrold Colten at jcolten@bloomberg.net Craig Stirling at +44-20-7673-2841 or cstirling1@bloomberg.net
Published: Saturday, 21 Jan 2012
8:47 AM ET Text Size By: Reuters Twitter
The representatives of Greece's private creditors left Athens unexpectedly on Saturday without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a disorderly default, sources close to the negotiations told Reuters.
Scott E. Barbour
Negotiations will continue over the phone during the weekend but it is unlikely that an agreement can be clinched before next week, the sources said, as Athens races against the clock to strike a deal.
A lot of progress has been made on the details of the plan during talks between Athens and Institute of International Finance chief Charles Dallara, sources say, but any deal needs the approval of the IMF and euro zone countries, who insist on a substantial cut in the debt load.
The IMF and EU countries, and in particular the bloc's paymaster Germany, want to make sure the deal puts Greece's derailed finances back on a sustainable track before they agree to a new, 130-billion euro bailout, which is also crucial to avoid a messy default.
The IMF insists the debt swap deal must ensure Greece's debt burden will be cut to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 from 160 percent now, as agreed at an EU summit in October, and has warned that this is made more difficult by the fact that Athens' economic prospects have deteriorated since.
"Things are complicated, we are getting closer on the numbers but there is still quite some work ahead," one source close to the talks said. "Discussions will continue over the phone this weekend but an agreement is unlikely before next week, if there is an agreement at all."
Greek Default Won't Lessen Contagion Risk: StrategistGreece, Creditors Near Debt Swap Deal With 70% LossGreek PM Says Hands Off the European Central Bank
A meeting Monday of euro zone finance ministers will be crucial for the debt swap talks. "We will want to test the waters among member states because given the complex connections between private sector and official funding elements, we have to have the backing of member states for a deal," a senior EU source told Reuters.
"The outcome in terms of achieving the debt-to-GDP target will depend on how the debt sustainability analysis is constructed, which is not a precise science but at most a form of art," the source said.
A new analysis of Greece's debt sustainability could be ready before Monday's Eurogroup, or by mid-week, the source said.
The IIF said on Friday that the elements of the deal were coming into place, adding: "Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy."
The statement seemed to be addressing Greece's official lenders, the EU and the IMF, who have driven a hard bargain behind the scenes of the negotiations, insisting that the deal must slash Greece's debt substantially, sources in Athens said.
"The euro zone ministers will examine the proposal and say whether we have a deal. If they say we don't, we're back to the negotiating table," said a banking source close to the talks.
Private bondholders will likely take a hit of 65 to 70 percent on their holdings, with Greece's new bonds featuring 30-year maturity and a progressive coupon, or interest rate, averaging out at 4 percent, another banking official close to the talks told Reuters.
A 15 percent cash sweetener will be made up of short-term bonds from Europe's temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) , two sources told Reuters.
Haggling over the coupon had held up the long-running talks as Greece raced to wrap up an agreement, raising the prospect of a messy default when Athens faces 14.5 billion euros ($18.5 billion) of bond repayments in March.
Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. Click for restrictions.
Greek Debt-Swap Accord ‘Coming Into Place’
QBy Marcus Bensasson, Natalie Weeks and Maria Petrakis - Jan 21, 2012 8:17 AM GMT+0800
Business Exchange Buzz up! Digg Print Email Enlarge image
Greek Debt-Swap Deal 'Coming Into Place' Angelos Tzortzinis/Bloomberg
Greece and its private creditors said early today they had made progress during talks in Athens on a debt-swap accord needed to lower the country’s borrowings and clear the way for a second round of international aid.
“The elements of an unprecedented voluntary private-sector involvement are coming into place,” according to an e-mailed statement from Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based lobby group representing creditors negotiating with the government.
European officials and the nation’s private bondholders agreed in October to implement a 50 percent cut in the face value of Greek debt by voluntarily exchanging outstanding bonds for new securities, with a goal of reducing Greece’s borrowings to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. An accord with bondholders is key to a second financing package for the cash- strapped country, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro ($18.7 billion) bond payment on March 20.
“Now is the time to act decisively and seize the opportunity to finalize this historic deal and contribute to the economic stability of Greece, the euro area and the world economy,” Dallara said in a joint statement with Jean Lemierre, a special adviser to the chairman of BNP Paribas SA. (BNP)
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters in Athens talks will continue later today, after a 4 1/2 hour meeting with the IIF officials and Prime Minister Lucas Papademos broke up about 1 a.m. in Athens. The meeting reconvened late yesterday after Greek officials broke to consult with European Union representatives.
90% Participation
“There’s been significant progress,” Hans Humes, president of Greylock Capital Management and a member of the creditor committee, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. “There’s broad agreement about the coupons and structural elements.”
The parties are near an initial agreement under which old bonds would be swapped for new 30-year securities carrying a coupon that would begin at 3.1 percent, reach 3.9 percent and go as high as 4.75 percent, Athens-based newspaper Proto Thema reported on its website yesterday, without saying where it got the information.
The two sides, which broke off negotiations on Jan. 13 before resuming them three days ago, have struggled to reach an accord on the coupon and maturity of the new bonds, which would determine losses for investors.
Humes said he’s “cautiously optimistic” the talks will lead to an accord.
Weekend Deal ‘Optimistic’
“If the IIF shake hands with the other side of the table, we will have a 90 percent or higher acceptance rate,” he estimated. He declined to provide details of the discussions.
Marathon Asset Management LP Chief Executive Officer Bruce Richards estimated in a Jan. 17 interview that private creditors were likely to get cash and securities with a market value of about 32 cents per euro of government bonds in the debt accord.
Like Greylock, Marathon, which has $10 billion under management, is on the committee of 32 private creditors formed in November to negotiate with Greece, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The firms aren’t members of the smaller steering committee directly involved in negotiations.
Questions remain how the two sides can craft a voluntary deal that will provide the debt relief the Greek government requires while attracting enough participation from bondholders. The government has indicated it may submit legislation that would compel full participation from private creditors, a move that would undercut the voluntary nature of any deal and could trigger credit-default swap insurance contracts.
‘Pretty Much Set’
“The financial terms are pretty much set at this point,” Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, told Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s ‘Street Smart’. “The whole holdup now are on legal issues, and I suspect there’s some discussion on this whole collective action clause issue.”
Venizelos said on Jan. 19 that for the final deal to lead to a sustainable level of debt for the country there must be a 100 percent participation rate.
Hedge funds holding Greek bonds may resist the deal, seeking greater profit by getting paid in full, either by the Greek government or by triggering payouts from credit-default swaps. Winning support from banks seeking to limit their losses may be easier than including hedge funds and other speculators who bought securities at distressed levels.
Vega Asset Management LLC resigned from the committee of Greek creditors negotiating the debt swap last month because the Madrid-based hedge fund refused to accept a net present value loss exceeding 50 percent, according to a Dec. 7 e-mail sent to other panel members, which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Troika Mission
Greek officials also met with the so-called troika mission, which is comprised of European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF representatives, on the new 130 billion-euro financing accord for the country.
The creditors’ steering committee negotiating the debt swap includes representatives from banks and insurers with the largest holdings of Greek government bonds, including National Bank of Greece SA, BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK), Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), ING Groep NV (INGA), Allianz SE (ALV) and Axa SA. (CS)
Financial firms on the IIF’s private-creditor investor committee, a larger group of 32 members that includes the smaller steering committee, hold more than 47 billion euros in Greek sovereign debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from company reports.
To contact the reporters on this story: Marcus Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephen Foxwell at sfoxwell@bloomberg.net; Jerrold Colten at jcolten@bloomberg.net Craig Stirling at +44-20-7673-2841 or cstirling1@bloomberg.net
Saturday, January 21, 2012
21jan2012--see the hangseng hit 20,000 just as i said earlier.look at this chart of mercator with links to BDI,SP500.you will see a clearer picture
WAY WAY UNDERVALUED
Thursday, January 19, 2012
19th jan2012-hangseng target 20000 hit for today,game set and match.hsi will "hover" around 20k till next friday,to "have a last 5% surge to 21000,in the same week as sp500's last week(10th or 11th week).REMEMBER MY ALGO-SP500 ALWAYS SURGE IN LAST WEEK AND HIT A FIBO
AS PREDICTED-
"11JAN2012-ONLY TWO SCENARIOS OF HANGSENG AFTER 20K BEING HIT IN END JAN2012-COME BET!!SHARESWIZARD BET CASE 2 "
proof-
hangseng today peak at 19956,very close to my 20k
"11JAN2012-ONLY TWO SCENARIOS OF HANGSENG AFTER 20K BEING HIT IN END JAN2012-COME BET!!SHARESWIZARD BET CASE 2 "
| 今日波幅 | : 19,776.320 - 19,956.539 |
proof-
| 今日波幅 | : 19,776.320 - 19,956.539 |
| 今日波幅 | : 19,776.320 - 19,956.539 |
Monday, January 16, 2012
16th jan2012-BDI PLUNGE IS NORMAL-WHY I SAY THAT?
BDI CYCLES
2008
JAN 28 2008 ROSE TILL MAY19 2008:5600 TILL 11700
MAY 19 2008 PLUNGE TILL DEC 5 2008:11700 TILL 660
2009
BECAUSE OF THE HUGE PLUNGE IN 2008,BDI ALREADY STARTED GOING UP IN DECEMBER 2007 FROM 663 TO JUNE 3,2009:4300
JUNE3-SEPT 24 2009:4300 TILL 2163
SEPT 24 2009 TILL NOV19 2009:2163-4661
2010
FEB3,2010-MAY26,2010:2673-4201
MAY26-JUL15,2010:4201-1700
JUL15-SEPT9 2010:1700-2988
OCTOBER 27,2010:START TO PLUNGE FROM 2784
2011
FEB3,2011 TILL MARCH23,2011:1045-1538
MARCH23 TILL APR21,2011:1538-1254
APR21,2011 TILL JUNE3,2011:1254-1489
JUNE3,2011-AUG2 2011:1489-1253
AUG2 2011 - OCT25,2011:1253-2161
AS YOU CAN ALL SEE BDI ALWAYS START CRASH IN OCT/NOV OF A YEAR AND RALLIES FROM FEB-MAY/JUNE OF A YEAR
2008
JAN 28 2008 ROSE TILL MAY19 2008:5600 TILL 11700
MAY 19 2008 PLUNGE TILL DEC 5 2008:11700 TILL 660
2009
BECAUSE OF THE HUGE PLUNGE IN 2008,BDI ALREADY STARTED GOING UP IN DECEMBER 2007 FROM 663 TO JUNE 3,2009:4300
JUNE3-SEPT 24 2009:4300 TILL 2163
SEPT 24 2009 TILL NOV19 2009:2163-4661
2010
FEB3,2010-MAY26,2010:2673-4201
MAY26-JUL15,2010:4201-1700
JUL15-SEPT9 2010:1700-2988
OCTOBER 27,2010:START TO PLUNGE FROM 2784
2011
FEB3,2011 TILL MARCH23,2011:1045-1538
MARCH23 TILL APR21,2011:1538-1254
APR21,2011 TILL JUNE3,2011:1254-1489
JUNE3,2011-AUG2 2011:1489-1253
AUG2 2011 - OCT25,2011:1253-2161
AS YOU CAN ALL SEE BDI ALWAYS START CRASH IN OCT/NOV OF A YEAR AND RALLIES FROM FEB-MAY/JUNE OF A YEAR
Thursday, January 12, 2012
12jan2012-SHARESWIZARD PREDICT DAY WHEN DRYSHIPS HITS OR BREAK 2.50 WILL BE THE DAY OPERATOR COMES IN FOR MERCATOR-EE6.SI
---IF THE MANIPULATION PATTERNS ARE REPEATED FROM MARCH 23,2009
TARGET:FRY MERCATOR FROM 12C TO 18C,as drys tgt is 3usd minimum.of course there are updowns in stockmarket.BDI is crashing, i know,BUT all drybulks stocks have fallen IN EXCESS,same of the BDI plunge from 11800 to 1200 now.
STAY TUNED TO THE "MYSTERIOUS POWER".IT SI COMING TO DRYBULKS IN ASIA.
MY PREVIOUS PREDICTION OF THE DAY IS AROUND 3RD WEEK OF JAN TO EARLY FEB DUE TO CHINESE NEW YEAR DISRUPTIONS
TARGET:FRY MERCATOR FROM 12C TO 18C,as drys tgt is 3usd minimum.of course there are updowns in stockmarket.BDI is crashing, i know,BUT all drybulks stocks have fallen IN EXCESS,same of the BDI plunge from 11800 to 1200 now.
STAY TUNED TO THE "MYSTERIOUS POWER".IT SI COMING TO DRYBULKS IN ASIA.
MY PREVIOUS PREDICTION OF THE DAY IS AROUND 3RD WEEK OF JAN TO EARLY FEB DUE TO CHINESE NEW YEAR DISRUPTIONS
12JAN2012-LIGHTNING STRIKE TWICE!!!!!!!!!!2DAYS IN A ROW,SP500 CLOSE AT MY 1292!!!
S&P 500 Index( .SPX :INDEX)
Source: Exchange
Extended Hours Unavailable
1292.48 USD
Last Trade 0.40 (+0.03%)
01-11-2012
SOURCE:CNBC
DONT TELL ME THURSDAY,FRIDAY ALSO CLOSE AT 1292?????
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
11JAN2012-REMEMBER MY SP500 TARGET 1292 IN THIS WEEK?????READ THE 8TH JAN 2012 POST.HOW ALGORITHMITIC IS THE STOCKMARKET!!PROGRAMMED BEFOREHAND!!
REPOST--
Sunday, January 8, 2012
"8JAN2012-SEE THE UNCANNY SIMILARITY OF CHARTS BETWEEN 2 DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS!!I ASK YOU ALL AGAIN-DO NEWS MATTER??DO FUCKAMENTALS MATTER?? "
LOOK AT THE CHART IN THAT POST--SP500 OPENING OF THE LONG CANDLEBODY OF AUG1,2011 WEEKLY CHART IS 1292.
YESTERDAY,10JAN2012,CLOSING OF SP500 WAS ALSO 1292!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AMAZING!!!!
CNBC:
S&P 500 Index( .SPX :INDEX)
Source: Exchange
1292.08 USD
Last Trade 11.38 (+0.89%)
01-10-2012
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
10jan2012-LOOK AT HOW STRONG THE SHANGHAI RALLY IS.REMEMBER I SAID APRIL OR NOV/DEC2012,SHANGHAI WILL HIT 3000-3200??
LOOK BELOW POSTS FOR PROOF OF MY PREDICTIONS.
OF COURSE I HOPE FOR APRIL 2012 HIT 3000-3200,BUT THEN AGAIN,I AM ALSO SCARED OF A FAILED BREAKOUT(2ND TIME).IF 3200 CLEARS,THEN I DARE SAY ITS ALL THE WAY UP to 4000.
IF failed breakout again,THEN LETS GO STEP BY STEP
OF COURSE I HOPE FOR APRIL 2012 HIT 3000-3200,BUT THEN AGAIN,I AM ALSO SCARED OF A FAILED BREAKOUT(2ND TIME).IF 3200 CLEARS,THEN I DARE SAY ITS ALL THE WAY UP to 4000.
IF failed breakout again,THEN LETS GO STEP BY STEP
Monday, January 9, 2012
9JAN2012-THANK YOU ALL FOR THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN VIEWERSHIP!!in 9days of 2012,A MASSIVE 550!!I WILL CONTINUE TO REVEAL THE SECRETS BEHIND THE STOCKMARKET
9JAN2012
so far im still spot on-
1) sp500 still in uptrend SHARESWIZARD TARGET-end jan-starting week feb2012-sp500 close 1380
2)hsi to end same time,end jan -early feb 20K-20.6K
3)shanghai to rally from 2130 all the way to 2800s in a 900+,400+,900+,400+,900+ drop pattern started in august 2009.
NOVICE TRADERS ONLY STUDY THAT CHART IF THEY WANT TO BUY THAT STOCK,THAT IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH.THAT IS WHY MANY TRADERS QUIT TRADING FULLTIME AFTER 1,2 YEARS.
u must study the INTRICATE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE 3 BROTHERS,HSI,SHANGHAI,SP500.
when A TECHNICAL PERSON QUIT FULLTIME TRADING,IT ISNT THAT CHARTS FAILED HIM,IT IS HE DIDNT INVESTIGATE HARD ENOUGH.
WHY SHOULD I BURN MY WEEKENDS TRYING TO DIG OUT SECRETS IN CHARTS?BECAUSE I LOVE MY JOB.I LOVE BEING A FULLTIME TRADER.
so far im still spot on-
1) sp500 still in uptrend SHARESWIZARD TARGET-end jan-starting week feb2012-sp500 close 1380
2)hsi to end same time,end jan -early feb 20K-20.6K
3)shanghai to rally from 2130 all the way to 2800s in a 900+,400+,900+,400+,900+ drop pattern started in august 2009.
NOVICE TRADERS ONLY STUDY THAT CHART IF THEY WANT TO BUY THAT STOCK,THAT IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH.THAT IS WHY MANY TRADERS QUIT TRADING FULLTIME AFTER 1,2 YEARS.
u must study the INTRICATE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE 3 BROTHERS,HSI,SHANGHAI,SP500.
when A TECHNICAL PERSON QUIT FULLTIME TRADING,IT ISNT THAT CHARTS FAILED HIM,IT IS HE DIDNT INVESTIGATE HARD ENOUGH.
WHY SHOULD I BURN MY WEEKENDS TRYING TO DIG OUT SECRETS IN CHARTS?BECAUSE I LOVE MY JOB.I LOVE BEING A FULLTIME TRADER.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
8JAN2012-SEE THE UNCANNY SIMILARITY OF CHARTS BETWEEN 2 DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS!!I ASK YOU ALL AGAIN-DO NEWS MATTER??DO FUCKAMENTALS MATTER??
8jan2012-i post you all some past HILARIOUS ANAL-yst recommendations OF now suspended companies
1) http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/24/markets_07bub_China-Sky-Chemical-Fibre_06P4.html
Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion
China Sky Chemical Fibre
09.27.07, 6:00 PM ET
China, textiles
Latest 12 Months
Sales Operating Income Net Income Market Value
$287 million $90 million $65 million $1,015 million
Latest 12 Months Valuation Three-Year Average
Price/Sales 3.5 Sales Growth 72%
EV/EBITDA 1 7 EPS Growth 62%
Price/Earnings 16
Debt/Equity 0 Return On Equity 40%
China Sky Chemical Fibre Co Ltd. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing chemical fibres, high-end nylon fibres, such as nylon Full Drawn Yarn and nylon High Oriented Yarn. The products are used by manufacturer of textiles and fabrics for making apparels such as high-end sportswear and casual wear, high-end lingerie and undergarments, jackets, pants and silk-like clothing. In addition to the applications in the textile and garment manufacturing industries, the products have also been applied by their customers for other commercial uses in the manufacture of home furnishing articles, such as curtains, table-cloth, upholstery and decorative materials, shoes, bags, luggage, umbrellas, tents, ribbons and nylon webbings. The Group operates in China.
All figures are in U.S. dollars.
Data as of September 7
NA: Not available; NM: Not meaningful.
1Enterprise value (market value of common plus net debt) divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Source: Worldscope via FactSet Research Systems; Forbes
2) Merrill's 'buy' call lifts China Sky 4.5%
09 October 06 The Business Times by Jean Chua SHARES of China Sky Chemical Fibre went up 4.5 per cent after brokerage Merrill Lynch initiated coverage of the nylon-fibre maker on Friday with a target of $1.82, a 62.5 per cent upside on the current price.
The stock jumped seven cents to open at $1.19 on Friday as Merrill Lynch issued a 'Buy' recommendation on the company.
Analyst Eddy Loh said China Sky, which was trading at 6.3 times forward earnings at $1.12 the day before the report was issued, had a lot of room for growth as the market was vast.
'Nylon fibre consumption in China is expected to continue growing at more than 15 per cent per annum,' Mr Loh wrote.
'As the largest producer, China Sky is well positioned to outpace industry growth by grabbing market share from both foreign imports (sic) and domestic consumption.
'The fact that China still imports one-third of its nylon fibre requirements suggests there is more room for domestic producers such as China Sky to grow.'
China Sky's net profit inched up 3.2 per cent to 87.7 million yuan (S$ 17.6 million) in the second quarter, as revenue grew 4.7 per cent to 315.3 million yuan. Its gross profit stayed flat at 105 million yuan, but costs and expenses fell 39.6 per cent to 5.3 million yuan.
Mr Loh said that the Q2 results were 'disappointing' but on a full-year basis, it estimates that the company can make 490 million yuan on revenue of 1.78 billion yuan this year. Next year, it could make 634 million yuan on sales of 2.29 billion yuan.
Besides the growth of the industry, China Sky could acquire its competitors, which could help it break into new markets, Mr Loh said. 'These prospects have not been factored into our forecast.'
In fact, China Sky has already identified some potential acquisitions and may make an offer in 2007, Mr Loh said.
China Sky is now the largest nylon-fibre producer in China, after it added capacity in June, Mr Loh said. It also has a solid research and development team, and provides good technical support to its customers, the weavers.
The third quarter should be a good one for China Sky, when it may make 50-60 per cent more than it did in the same quarter last year.
There are risks, of course, to China Sky's growth. The company had been able to pass on some of the increase in raw material prices to its customers, but if nylon prices go too high, it might not be able to go on doing so.
Its plans to increase capacity will also mean that it will have negative free cash flow for financial years 2006-2007. 'As China Sky may acquire or invest in new capacities, there may be a risk that free cash flow remains negative for 2008-2009,' Mr Loh wrote.
The company had cash of 300 million yuan at the end of the second quarter.
Other risks include 'unexpected decline in selling prices, developments affecting nylon usage in China and execution failures'.
3)BROKER CALL - Singapore-listed China Sky 'buy' after Q1 results - Kim Eng
13 May 2008
Xinhua Newsfeed
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - Kim Eng Securities said it maintained its "buy" recommendation and target price of 2.21 sgd for China Sky Chemical Fibre Co, after the company's first quarter earnings fell in line with expectations.
The Singapore-listed company's earnings rose 16 pct to 163.4 mln yuan on higher revenue from increased capacity and lower operating expenses.
But compared to fourth quarter 2007 earnings, profit fell 8.8 pct on a 1.7 pct decrease in revenue.
"We reckon the weaker revenue could be due to seasonality while higher tax rates eroded earnings," Kim Eng said in a note to investors.
(1 usd = 7 yuan, 1.36 sgd)
shburo@xfn.com
4)China Sky, Fibrechem get 'buy' calls
25 October 06 The Business Times UOB-Kay Hian has issued 'buy' calls on chemical fibre manufacturers China Sky Chemical Fibre and Fibrechem Technologies, saying that the two companies are not direct competitors as they cater to different segments of a fast-growing market.
In a research report this month, analyst Chong Mean Phil said Fibrechem makes products such as nylon-polyester bi-component fibre and sea-island short fibre, while China Sky makes high-end products like nylon full drawn yarn (FDY) and nylon high oriented yarn (HOY).
'Nylon is a more expensive chemical fibre than polyester, in terms of both raw materials and products prices,' Mr Chong said. 'We see nylon as a niche product and polyester as a mass market product. Judging from the number of players in the market, the data suggest that the polyester market is a bigger but more competitive and fragmented market.'
'In addition, China is quite self-sufficient in polyester with imports at 2 per cent of domestic production level. In fact, China has become a net exporter of polyester for 2005 and 2006.'
This also means that China Sky is a market leader, with close to 10 per cent market share based on its annual production capacity of 72,000 tonnes. Fibrechem has less than one per cent market share and is just one of the many players in the polyester market, Mr Chong said.
However, Fibrechem is no longer making merely standard polyester fibre, and has moved into producing specialty nylon polyester bi-component fibre and synthetic leather, for which it is market leader.
Bi-component fibre makes up 35 per cent of Fibrechem's revenue, and synthetic leather, 24 per cent.
Mr Chong estimates that earnings per share of both China Sky and Fibrechem have a compound annual growth rate of 30-40 per cent. He said investors could see a higher return on equity for Fibrechem because of a more 'efficient capital structure'.
'This is due to the use of debt or convertibles, which has a lower cost compared to pure equity,' he said. 'China Sky relies solely on equity to fund its operations, and there is certainly room for capital management to achieve a more optimal capital structure.'
China Sky's ROE is seen at 33.4 per cent for 2006 and 31.7 per cent for 2007, while Fibrechem's is seen at 32.8 and 34.2 per cent, respectively.
For China Sky's ROE to improve, it needs to use a lower cost instrument or increase its dividend payout, Mr Chong said.
'Both China Sky and Fibrechem ... serve different markets for different products and, hence, are not in direct competition,' Mr Chong said. 'We believe that the respective market segments are big enough to accommodate these two companies and the opportunities therein are plentiful.'
UOB Kay Hian has a 12-month price target of $1.58 for China Sky and $2.02 for Fibrechem. The stocks closed at $1.28 and $1.62 respectively on Monday.
THEN SUDDENLY
SGX applies for court order on China Sky audit
04:47 AM Jan 07, 2012SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange (SGX) has applied for a court order to force textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre to appoint a special auditor.
The application was made against China Sky and its directors after the S-chip company on Thursday missed a deadline set by the SGX to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain transactions.
"Despite every opportunity offered, China Sky persists in its non-compliance with the directive. SGX, has therefore, escalated the matter to the High Court," the bourse operator said late yesterday.
The SGX had directed China Sky in November to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain financial dealings, including a failed land deal and repairs and maintenance costs.
But in a rare display of defiance by a listed company, China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and that the SGX had not provided the justification for issuing the directive.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline to comply with its directive by Thursday, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The SGX said in its statement that it has also applied to the High Court to get China Sky to appoint at least two independent directors to replace those who had resigned on Thursday.
MY COMMENTS:--MUCH MORE,JUST GOOGLE AND U WILL FIND MUCH MORE COCK FUCKAMENTALS.I JUST BASED ON ONE LOGIC:IF THESE COMPANIES ARE SO GOOD AS THEY CLAIMED,WHY CANT THEY LIST IN THEIR OWN HOMELAND 1ST BEFORE GOING OVERSEAS??????
ONE SIMPLE QUESTION FROM A THEN 27YEAR OLD MAN,ME, IN 2006 ENABLED ME TO HAVE SUCH VISION THAT I DONT NEED TO WAIT FOR CRISES THEN I WAKE UP.BY THEN IT WILL BE TOO LATE.WHY MATURE ADULTS,MANY ARE MUCH OLDER THAN ME,DONT HAVE THE VISION????????????????????????????????
PLEASE DO QUIT THE STOCKMARKET IF YOU MUST WAIT FOR THINGS TO HAPPEN THEN U SEE THRU.THE STOCKMARKET ISNT FOR YOU.I AM AN ACTIVE TRADER FOR 9YEARS,YET I HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN HIT BY ONE SUSPENDED COMPANY YET NONE FULLTIME TRADERS CAN GET HIT BY NOT ONE,NOT TWO,SOME PEOPLE I KNOW GET HIT BY AT LEAST 5 SUSPENDED COMPANIES.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES WHY.INNOCENT PEOPLE SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET.INNOCENT PEOPLE WHO BELIEVED THE WORLD BEHAVE TO UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC MODELS,FUCKA-FUNDAMENTALS P/E,DCF VALUATION MODELS,BLAH BLAH SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET TOO.I AM ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR 9YEARS IN THE TREACHEROUS STOCKMARKET,YET I REMAIN UNSCATHED.LOSE MONEY YES,BUT NOT BECOME ZERO.
I ALSO BOUGHT BEFORE MANY NOW SUSPENDED COMPANIES DURING 2006-2009,WHY I WAS NEVER HIT???????BECAUSE I KNOW THESE CON-PANIES YOU CANT HOLD THEM FOR LONGTERM INVESTING.
I,A 27YEAR OLD GUY IN 2006 EVEN CAN SEE THRU BEFORE ALL THE S-CHIP SCANDALS CAME OUT AFTER 2008.
IF SHARESWIZARD CAN HAVE SUCH VISION,SO CAN YOU.
THANK YOU
Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion
China Sky Chemical Fibre
09.27.07, 6:00 PM ET
China, textiles
Latest 12 Months
Sales Operating Income Net Income Market Value
$287 million $90 million $65 million $1,015 million
Latest 12 Months Valuation Three-Year Average
Price/Sales 3.5 Sales Growth 72%
EV/EBITDA 1 7 EPS Growth 62%
Price/Earnings 16
Debt/Equity 0 Return On Equity 40%
China Sky Chemical Fibre Co Ltd. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing chemical fibres, high-end nylon fibres, such as nylon Full Drawn Yarn and nylon High Oriented Yarn. The products are used by manufacturer of textiles and fabrics for making apparels such as high-end sportswear and casual wear, high-end lingerie and undergarments, jackets, pants and silk-like clothing. In addition to the applications in the textile and garment manufacturing industries, the products have also been applied by their customers for other commercial uses in the manufacture of home furnishing articles, such as curtains, table-cloth, upholstery and decorative materials, shoes, bags, luggage, umbrellas, tents, ribbons and nylon webbings. The Group operates in China.
All figures are in U.S. dollars.
Data as of September 7
NA: Not available; NM: Not meaningful.
1Enterprise value (market value of common plus net debt) divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Source: Worldscope via FactSet Research Systems; Forbes
2) Merrill's 'buy' call lifts China Sky 4.5%
09 October 06 The Business Times by Jean Chua SHARES of China Sky Chemical Fibre went up 4.5 per cent after brokerage Merrill Lynch initiated coverage of the nylon-fibre maker on Friday with a target of $1.82, a 62.5 per cent upside on the current price.
The stock jumped seven cents to open at $1.19 on Friday as Merrill Lynch issued a 'Buy' recommendation on the company.
Analyst Eddy Loh said China Sky, which was trading at 6.3 times forward earnings at $1.12 the day before the report was issued, had a lot of room for growth as the market was vast.
'Nylon fibre consumption in China is expected to continue growing at more than 15 per cent per annum,' Mr Loh wrote.
'As the largest producer, China Sky is well positioned to outpace industry growth by grabbing market share from both foreign imports (sic) and domestic consumption.
'The fact that China still imports one-third of its nylon fibre requirements suggests there is more room for domestic producers such as China Sky to grow.'
China Sky's net profit inched up 3.2 per cent to 87.7 million yuan (S$ 17.6 million) in the second quarter, as revenue grew 4.7 per cent to 315.3 million yuan. Its gross profit stayed flat at 105 million yuan, but costs and expenses fell 39.6 per cent to 5.3 million yuan.
Mr Loh said that the Q2 results were 'disappointing' but on a full-year basis, it estimates that the company can make 490 million yuan on revenue of 1.78 billion yuan this year. Next year, it could make 634 million yuan on sales of 2.29 billion yuan.
Besides the growth of the industry, China Sky could acquire its competitors, which could help it break into new markets, Mr Loh said. 'These prospects have not been factored into our forecast.'
In fact, China Sky has already identified some potential acquisitions and may make an offer in 2007, Mr Loh said.
China Sky is now the largest nylon-fibre producer in China, after it added capacity in June, Mr Loh said. It also has a solid research and development team, and provides good technical support to its customers, the weavers.
The third quarter should be a good one for China Sky, when it may make 50-60 per cent more than it did in the same quarter last year.
There are risks, of course, to China Sky's growth. The company had been able to pass on some of the increase in raw material prices to its customers, but if nylon prices go too high, it might not be able to go on doing so.
Its plans to increase capacity will also mean that it will have negative free cash flow for financial years 2006-2007. 'As China Sky may acquire or invest in new capacities, there may be a risk that free cash flow remains negative for 2008-2009,' Mr Loh wrote.
The company had cash of 300 million yuan at the end of the second quarter.
Other risks include 'unexpected decline in selling prices, developments affecting nylon usage in China and execution failures'.
3)BROKER CALL - Singapore-listed China Sky 'buy' after Q1 results - Kim Eng
13 May 2008
Xinhua Newsfeed
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - Kim Eng Securities said it maintained its "buy" recommendation and target price of 2.21 sgd for China Sky Chemical Fibre Co, after the company's first quarter earnings fell in line with expectations.
The Singapore-listed company's earnings rose 16 pct to 163.4 mln yuan on higher revenue from increased capacity and lower operating expenses.
But compared to fourth quarter 2007 earnings, profit fell 8.8 pct on a 1.7 pct decrease in revenue.
"We reckon the weaker revenue could be due to seasonality while higher tax rates eroded earnings," Kim Eng said in a note to investors.
(1 usd = 7 yuan, 1.36 sgd)
shburo@xfn.com
4)China Sky, Fibrechem get 'buy' calls
25 October 06 The Business Times UOB-Kay Hian has issued 'buy' calls on chemical fibre manufacturers China Sky Chemical Fibre and Fibrechem Technologies, saying that the two companies are not direct competitors as they cater to different segments of a fast-growing market.
In a research report this month, analyst Chong Mean Phil said Fibrechem makes products such as nylon-polyester bi-component fibre and sea-island short fibre, while China Sky makes high-end products like nylon full drawn yarn (FDY) and nylon high oriented yarn (HOY).
'Nylon is a more expensive chemical fibre than polyester, in terms of both raw materials and products prices,' Mr Chong said. 'We see nylon as a niche product and polyester as a mass market product. Judging from the number of players in the market, the data suggest that the polyester market is a bigger but more competitive and fragmented market.'
'In addition, China is quite self-sufficient in polyester with imports at 2 per cent of domestic production level. In fact, China has become a net exporter of polyester for 2005 and 2006.'
This also means that China Sky is a market leader, with close to 10 per cent market share based on its annual production capacity of 72,000 tonnes. Fibrechem has less than one per cent market share and is just one of the many players in the polyester market, Mr Chong said.
However, Fibrechem is no longer making merely standard polyester fibre, and has moved into producing specialty nylon polyester bi-component fibre and synthetic leather, for which it is market leader.
Bi-component fibre makes up 35 per cent of Fibrechem's revenue, and synthetic leather, 24 per cent.
Mr Chong estimates that earnings per share of both China Sky and Fibrechem have a compound annual growth rate of 30-40 per cent. He said investors could see a higher return on equity for Fibrechem because of a more 'efficient capital structure'.
'This is due to the use of debt or convertibles, which has a lower cost compared to pure equity,' he said. 'China Sky relies solely on equity to fund its operations, and there is certainly room for capital management to achieve a more optimal capital structure.'
China Sky's ROE is seen at 33.4 per cent for 2006 and 31.7 per cent for 2007, while Fibrechem's is seen at 32.8 and 34.2 per cent, respectively.
For China Sky's ROE to improve, it needs to use a lower cost instrument or increase its dividend payout, Mr Chong said.
'Both China Sky and Fibrechem ... serve different markets for different products and, hence, are not in direct competition,' Mr Chong said. 'We believe that the respective market segments are big enough to accommodate these two companies and the opportunities therein are plentiful.'
UOB Kay Hian has a 12-month price target of $1.58 for China Sky and $2.02 for Fibrechem. The stocks closed at $1.28 and $1.62 respectively on Monday.
THEN SUDDENLY
SGX applies for court order on China Sky audit
04:47 AM Jan 07, 2012SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange (SGX) has applied for a court order to force textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre to appoint a special auditor.
The application was made against China Sky and its directors after the S-chip company on Thursday missed a deadline set by the SGX to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain transactions.
"Despite every opportunity offered, China Sky persists in its non-compliance with the directive. SGX, has therefore, escalated the matter to the High Court," the bourse operator said late yesterday.
The SGX had directed China Sky in November to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain financial dealings, including a failed land deal and repairs and maintenance costs.
But in a rare display of defiance by a listed company, China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and that the SGX had not provided the justification for issuing the directive.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline to comply with its directive by Thursday, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The SGX said in its statement that it has also applied to the High Court to get China Sky to appoint at least two independent directors to replace those who had resigned on Thursday.
MY COMMENTS:--MUCH MORE,JUST GOOGLE AND U WILL FIND MUCH MORE COCK FUCKAMENTALS.I JUST BASED ON ONE LOGIC:IF THESE COMPANIES ARE SO GOOD AS THEY CLAIMED,WHY CANT THEY LIST IN THEIR OWN HOMELAND 1ST BEFORE GOING OVERSEAS??????
ONE SIMPLE QUESTION FROM A THEN 27YEAR OLD MAN,ME, IN 2006 ENABLED ME TO HAVE SUCH VISION THAT I DONT NEED TO WAIT FOR CRISES THEN I WAKE UP.BY THEN IT WILL BE TOO LATE.WHY MATURE ADULTS,MANY ARE MUCH OLDER THAN ME,DONT HAVE THE VISION????????????????????????????????
PLEASE DO QUIT THE STOCKMARKET IF YOU MUST WAIT FOR THINGS TO HAPPEN THEN U SEE THRU.THE STOCKMARKET ISNT FOR YOU.I AM AN ACTIVE TRADER FOR 9YEARS,YET I HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN HIT BY ONE SUSPENDED COMPANY YET NONE FULLTIME TRADERS CAN GET HIT BY NOT ONE,NOT TWO,SOME PEOPLE I KNOW GET HIT BY AT LEAST 5 SUSPENDED COMPANIES.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES WHY.INNOCENT PEOPLE SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET.INNOCENT PEOPLE WHO BELIEVED THE WORLD BEHAVE TO UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC MODELS,FUCKA-FUNDAMENTALS P/E,DCF VALUATION MODELS,BLAH BLAH SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET TOO.I AM ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR 9YEARS IN THE TREACHEROUS STOCKMARKET,YET I REMAIN UNSCATHED.LOSE MONEY YES,BUT NOT BECOME ZERO.
I ALSO BOUGHT BEFORE MANY NOW SUSPENDED COMPANIES DURING 2006-2009,WHY I WAS NEVER HIT???????BECAUSE I KNOW THESE CON-PANIES YOU CANT HOLD THEM FOR LONGTERM INVESTING.
I,A 27YEAR OLD GUY IN 2006 EVEN CAN SEE THRU BEFORE ALL THE S-CHIP SCANDALS CAME OUT AFTER 2008.
IF SHARESWIZARD CAN HAVE SUCH VISION,SO CAN YOU.
THANK YOU
Saturday, January 7, 2012
7jan2012-ANOTHER FUNNY NEWS-thistime from usa!
Investors Continue to Yank Money Out of Stocks
Published: Friday, 6 Jan 2012
1:44 PM ET Text Size By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money & Halftime
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investors yanked money out of U.S. equity mutual funds for a ninth-consecutive week despite a bullish 2012 outlook from Wall Street and a December rally that’s carried over into the New Year.
U.S. funds—not including ETFs —lost $1.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Lipper FMI. This follows a $1.7 billion outflow in the previous week. Investors put money into taxable and municipal bond funds instead, the data showed.
“Trends remained largely intact as we moved into the first week of 2012,” said Daniel Fannon, a financial analyst with Jefferies, who cited the data in a note to clients.
The S&P 500 [.SPX 1277.81 -3.25 (-0.25%) ] began 2012 with a 1.6 percent surge on Tuesday and is up 2 percent for the week. A better-than-expected jobs report added to the bullish tone Friday.
Wall Street strategists, on average, expect the U.S. benchmark to increase by 7 percent this year, according to a consensus calculation by Goldman Sachs. The market seers generally cite a strong domestic economy overshadowing the credit crisis in Europe. But apparently, their retail clients aren’t listening.
The continued outflows mean “folks set a mental level, thinking ‘please God if we ever get to this point, I will take the money and run,’” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com. “It also means we could have more people chasing the market higher if this move hits 1300 in the S&P 500.”
The index is up 19 percent from its intraday low for 2011 hit three months ago and was approaching 1282 in trading Friday.
U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year
QBy Charles Stein - Jan 6, 2012 1:00 PM GMT+0800
U.S. stock mutual funds that invest in domestic equities had their second-biggest redemptions last year as record market swings sent investors to the perceived safety of bond funds.
Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends.
Withdrawals accelerated in May and June amid concern that weaker European economies would not be able to repay their debts. They peaked in July as Congress debated whether to lift the nation’s debt ceiling. Those events, as well as lingering memories of the 2008 selloff and a subpar U.S. economic recovery, may all have contributed to investor discontent, said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. interview.
“A lot of people remember they got burned so they are more sensitive to bad news than they were before,” Kinnel said in a telephone interview.
‘Bear the Pain’
Volatility increased in the third quarter as the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at Standard & Poor’s and concern about the European debt crisis intensified. The S&P 500 moved 2.4 percent (SPX) on average between its intraday lows and highs, the most for any quarter since 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alternated between gains and losses exceeding 400 points on four straight days in August, the longest such streak ever.
“Investors just can’t bear the pain, which sets the stages for an unwillingness to take risk,” said Christopher Blum, chief investment officer for behavioral finance at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York.
The redemptions from domestic stock funds have come from managers who pick equities in an attempt to beat market benchmarks. Actively-managed funds saw withdrawals from 2007 through 2010 while index funds attracted money in each of those years, Morningstar data show. The same pattern held through the first 11 months of 2011.
“People are convinced that active management has failed to deliver,” Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund consultant based in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said in a telephone interview.
Leaving Active Funds
Funds that invest in international stocks attracted about $6 billion last year, ICI data show, down from $58 billion in 2010. Taxable bond funds saw an estimated $141 billion in deposits, below the $230 billion they attracted the previous year. Municipal bond funds suffered withdrawals of about $12 billion. In 2010 they had $11 billion in deposits.
The ICI has released monthly flow data through November and weekly numbers through Dec. 28, which may be revised. Final numbers for December will be published at the end of January, according to the ICI.
Domestic equity funds captivated the American public in the 1990s, thanks to a stock market that rose at an annual pace of 18 percent a year and the well-publicized success of stock pickers such as Peter Lynch of Fidelity Investments. Lynch guided Fidelity’s Magellan Fund to gains of 29 percent a year from 1977 to 1990 compared with 15 percent annual returns for the S&P 500 index.
In the past 10 years the S&P 500 returned 2.9 percent annually, including reinvested dividends. Investors suffered double-digit losses in 2001, 2002 and 2008.
Better news on the U.S. economy and a resolution of Europe’s debt problems might inspire investors to begin a return to U.S. stock funds, said Blum. In the meantime those investors could be missing good opportunities.
“There is a risk to not owning equities,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel in Boston at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
MY COMMENTS-YEAH!!ISNT THIS FUNNY?LOOK AT THE TIMING THE AVERAGE RETARD SOLD STOCKS-
WHEN DID THE AVERAGE RETARD "EJACULATED" ALL THEIR STOCK HOLDINGS OUT?IN JULY 2011!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
IF THEY HAVE READ MY BLOG,THEY WILL HAVE KNOWN IN FEB/MARCH 2011,I WAS VERY BEARISH AND WAS LOOKING FOR A 20% FALL IN STI AND WORLD MARKETS.DID I WAIT TILL JULY2011 TO "EJACULATE"?DID I WAIT TILL BAD NEWS IS ALL OUT THEN I "EJACULATE" MY STOCK HOLDINGS????
I "EJACULATED" ALL MY STOCK HOLDINGS IN FEB2011!!!!!!!HAHAHAHA THIS NEWS IS SO FUNNY.PLEASE READ MY FEB2011 POSTS FOR PROOF I WAS DAMN BEARISH ON THE STOCKMARKETS.I SAID ONLY FOOLS BUY FROM ME IN FEB2011.hahahahahaha
THE STOCKMARKET IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY AS BUSINESS.SOMEBODY HAS TO LOSE IN ORDER TO MAKE SOMEBODY WIN.STOCKMARKET,PROPERTY MARKET,BUSINESS MARKETS ARE ALL ZERO SUM GAMES.WAKE UP.RECENTLY SO MANY BOOKSHOPS IN SINGAPORE CLOSE DOWN,EG. BORDERS,PAGEONE.WHY?THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF THE BOOKSTORES BECAUSE NOW THERE ARE E-BOOKS.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES THIS SIMPLE QUESTION-WHY ARE WITHDRAWALS SO HUGE,2ND HIGHEST,BEHIND 2008,YET SP500 REMAIN FLAT FOR 2011??WHY???WHO HAS BEEN EATING UP THE "GOODIES"?
THE AVERAGE RETARD HAS ALREADY LEFT THE MARKET,NOW IT IS THE TIME TO PUSH UP,THEN AFTER STOCKMARKET SOARED,THEN THEY WILL RETURN AND BE TIED ANOTHER 20YEARS!!!!then they will complain again.PLEASE DO NOT RE ENTER THE STOCKMARKET AGAIN.
THE AVERAGE RETARD DESERVED TO GET BURNT IN THE STOCKMARKET.PATTERNS,CYCLES REPEAT AND REPEAT BUT AS AN ADULT, A FULLY MATURED ADULT,WHO LIVED SO MANY YEARS ON EARTH YET CAN FAIL TO LEARN REPEATED PATTERNS DESERVE TO LOSE.HOW CAN ANYONE,A FULLY GROWN MATURE ADULT, MISS OUT THAT 2009 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2003,2010 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2004,2011 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2005 IN SP500.
if you cant see thru cycles, PLEASE QUIT THE STOCKMARKET AND NEVER RETURN.the stockmarket DOES NOT need your SMALL money to go up.the stockmarket can go up "ON ITS OWN".
TO THOSE WHO SELL IN may/july2011-YOU MUST HAVE BOUGHT SOMEWHERE IN 1999-2000,TIED UP FOR 10+ YEARS,NEVER EARN A SINGLE PROFIT.THEN WHEN SP500 RETURNED TO YOUR SAME 1200s levels,u sell ALL and VOW NEVER TO RETURN TO THE STOCKMARKET. you as an american,you have put warren buffett's teachings to shame!i know warren buffet is not 100% right BUT investing is simply "BUY WHEN MAJORITY IS AFRAID,SELL WHEN MAJORITY ARE GREEDY".
IT IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY MARKET.please look at china property now.dead as a mouse.a lot of china people are cursing the property market for making them lose their wealth.WHY IS THAT SO?
THE AVERAGE RETARDS WILL ALWAYS BE SUCKED INTO HUGE RISES,GET TIED FOR 10-20YEARS OF FLATTISH OR LOSING MONEY YEARS THEN THEY WILL "EJACULATE" AT LOW OR SAME PRICES THAT THEY BOUGHT 10-20YEARS AGO.this cycle WILL REPEAT because this retard QUIT,THERE COMES THE NEXT RETARD!hahahahaha
THANK YOU
Published: Friday, 6 Jan 2012
1:44 PM ET Text Size By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money & Halftime
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investors yanked money out of U.S. equity mutual funds for a ninth-consecutive week despite a bullish 2012 outlook from Wall Street and a December rally that’s carried over into the New Year.
U.S. funds—not including ETFs —lost $1.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Lipper FMI. This follows a $1.7 billion outflow in the previous week. Investors put money into taxable and municipal bond funds instead, the data showed.
“Trends remained largely intact as we moved into the first week of 2012,” said Daniel Fannon, a financial analyst with Jefferies, who cited the data in a note to clients.
The S&P 500 [.SPX 1277.81 -3.25 (-0.25%) ] began 2012 with a 1.6 percent surge on Tuesday and is up 2 percent for the week. A better-than-expected jobs report added to the bullish tone Friday.
Wall Street strategists, on average, expect the U.S. benchmark to increase by 7 percent this year, according to a consensus calculation by Goldman Sachs. The market seers generally cite a strong domestic economy overshadowing the credit crisis in Europe. But apparently, their retail clients aren’t listening.
The continued outflows mean “folks set a mental level, thinking ‘please God if we ever get to this point, I will take the money and run,’” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com. “It also means we could have more people chasing the market higher if this move hits 1300 in the S&P 500.”
The index is up 19 percent from its intraday low for 2011 hit three months ago and was approaching 1282 in trading Friday.
U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year
QBy Charles Stein - Jan 6, 2012 1:00 PM GMT+0800
U.S. stock mutual funds that invest in domestic equities had their second-biggest redemptions last year as record market swings sent investors to the perceived safety of bond funds.
Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends.
Withdrawals accelerated in May and June amid concern that weaker European economies would not be able to repay their debts. They peaked in July as Congress debated whether to lift the nation’s debt ceiling. Those events, as well as lingering memories of the 2008 selloff and a subpar U.S. economic recovery, may all have contributed to investor discontent, said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. interview.
“A lot of people remember they got burned so they are more sensitive to bad news than they were before,” Kinnel said in a telephone interview.
‘Bear the Pain’
Volatility increased in the third quarter as the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at Standard & Poor’s and concern about the European debt crisis intensified. The S&P 500 moved 2.4 percent (SPX) on average between its intraday lows and highs, the most for any quarter since 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alternated between gains and losses exceeding 400 points on four straight days in August, the longest such streak ever.
“Investors just can’t bear the pain, which sets the stages for an unwillingness to take risk,” said Christopher Blum, chief investment officer for behavioral finance at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York.
The redemptions from domestic stock funds have come from managers who pick equities in an attempt to beat market benchmarks. Actively-managed funds saw withdrawals from 2007 through 2010 while index funds attracted money in each of those years, Morningstar data show. The same pattern held through the first 11 months of 2011.
“People are convinced that active management has failed to deliver,” Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund consultant based in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said in a telephone interview.
Leaving Active Funds
Funds that invest in international stocks attracted about $6 billion last year, ICI data show, down from $58 billion in 2010. Taxable bond funds saw an estimated $141 billion in deposits, below the $230 billion they attracted the previous year. Municipal bond funds suffered withdrawals of about $12 billion. In 2010 they had $11 billion in deposits.
The ICI has released monthly flow data through November and weekly numbers through Dec. 28, which may be revised. Final numbers for December will be published at the end of January, according to the ICI.
Domestic equity funds captivated the American public in the 1990s, thanks to a stock market that rose at an annual pace of 18 percent a year and the well-publicized success of stock pickers such as Peter Lynch of Fidelity Investments. Lynch guided Fidelity’s Magellan Fund to gains of 29 percent a year from 1977 to 1990 compared with 15 percent annual returns for the S&P 500 index.
In the past 10 years the S&P 500 returned 2.9 percent annually, including reinvested dividends. Investors suffered double-digit losses in 2001, 2002 and 2008.
Better news on the U.S. economy and a resolution of Europe’s debt problems might inspire investors to begin a return to U.S. stock funds, said Blum. In the meantime those investors could be missing good opportunities.
“There is a risk to not owning equities,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel in Boston at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
MY COMMENTS-YEAH!!ISNT THIS FUNNY?LOOK AT THE TIMING THE AVERAGE RETARD SOLD STOCKS-
WHEN DID THE AVERAGE RETARD "EJACULATED" ALL THEIR STOCK HOLDINGS OUT?IN JULY 2011!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
IF THEY HAVE READ MY BLOG,THEY WILL HAVE KNOWN IN FEB/MARCH 2011,I WAS VERY BEARISH AND WAS LOOKING FOR A 20% FALL IN STI AND WORLD MARKETS.DID I WAIT TILL JULY2011 TO "EJACULATE"?DID I WAIT TILL BAD NEWS IS ALL OUT THEN I "EJACULATE" MY STOCK HOLDINGS????
I "EJACULATED" ALL MY STOCK HOLDINGS IN FEB2011!!!!!!!HAHAHAHA THIS NEWS IS SO FUNNY.PLEASE READ MY FEB2011 POSTS FOR PROOF I WAS DAMN BEARISH ON THE STOCKMARKETS.I SAID ONLY FOOLS BUY FROM ME IN FEB2011.hahahahahaha
THE STOCKMARKET IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY AS BUSINESS.SOMEBODY HAS TO LOSE IN ORDER TO MAKE SOMEBODY WIN.STOCKMARKET,PROPERTY MARKET,BUSINESS MARKETS ARE ALL ZERO SUM GAMES.WAKE UP.RECENTLY SO MANY BOOKSHOPS IN SINGAPORE CLOSE DOWN,EG. BORDERS,PAGEONE.WHY?THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF THE BOOKSTORES BECAUSE NOW THERE ARE E-BOOKS.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES THIS SIMPLE QUESTION-WHY ARE WITHDRAWALS SO HUGE,2ND HIGHEST,BEHIND 2008,YET SP500 REMAIN FLAT FOR 2011??WHY???WHO HAS BEEN EATING UP THE "GOODIES"?
THE AVERAGE RETARD HAS ALREADY LEFT THE MARKET,NOW IT IS THE TIME TO PUSH UP,THEN AFTER STOCKMARKET SOARED,THEN THEY WILL RETURN AND BE TIED ANOTHER 20YEARS!!!!then they will complain again.PLEASE DO NOT RE ENTER THE STOCKMARKET AGAIN.
THE AVERAGE RETARD DESERVED TO GET BURNT IN THE STOCKMARKET.PATTERNS,CYCLES REPEAT AND REPEAT BUT AS AN ADULT, A FULLY MATURED ADULT,WHO LIVED SO MANY YEARS ON EARTH YET CAN FAIL TO LEARN REPEATED PATTERNS DESERVE TO LOSE.HOW CAN ANYONE,A FULLY GROWN MATURE ADULT, MISS OUT THAT 2009 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2003,2010 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2004,2011 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2005 IN SP500.
if you cant see thru cycles, PLEASE QUIT THE STOCKMARKET AND NEVER RETURN.the stockmarket DOES NOT need your SMALL money to go up.the stockmarket can go up "ON ITS OWN".
TO THOSE WHO SELL IN may/july2011-YOU MUST HAVE BOUGHT SOMEWHERE IN 1999-2000,TIED UP FOR 10+ YEARS,NEVER EARN A SINGLE PROFIT.THEN WHEN SP500 RETURNED TO YOUR SAME 1200s levels,u sell ALL and VOW NEVER TO RETURN TO THE STOCKMARKET. you as an american,you have put warren buffett's teachings to shame!i know warren buffet is not 100% right BUT investing is simply "BUY WHEN MAJORITY IS AFRAID,SELL WHEN MAJORITY ARE GREEDY".
IT IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY MARKET.please look at china property now.dead as a mouse.a lot of china people are cursing the property market for making them lose their wealth.WHY IS THAT SO?
THE AVERAGE RETARDS WILL ALWAYS BE SUCKED INTO HUGE RISES,GET TIED FOR 10-20YEARS OF FLATTISH OR LOSING MONEY YEARS THEN THEY WILL "EJACULATE" AT LOW OR SAME PRICES THAT THEY BOUGHT 10-20YEARS AGO.this cycle WILL REPEAT because this retard QUIT,THERE COMES THE NEXT RETARD!hahahahaha
THANK YOU
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