what great economists said during and after great depression
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Mar 29, 1930
"... the outlook is favorable..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Apr 19, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), June 28, 1930
"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Aug 30, 1930
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Nov 15, 1930
"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Oct 31, 1931
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
Friday, February 19, 2010
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Jobless Recovery
What Does Jobless Recovery Mean?
An economic recovery, following a recession, where the economy as a whole improves, but the unemployment rate remains high or continues to increase over a prolonged period of time. This effect may be a result of cautious businesses that add hours to existing employees in order to increase production capacity rather than hiring new workers. Investopedia explains Jobless Recovery
An example of a jobless recovery occurred in the early 1990s. While the American recession from the late 1980s technically ended in the first quarter of 1991, the unemployment rate did not actually stabilize until the middle of 1992
from investopedia
who says jobs must recover then econ recover?? jobs are for commoners...people who create crisis dont listen to commoners
What Does Jobless Recovery Mean?
An economic recovery, following a recession, where the economy as a whole improves, but the unemployment rate remains high or continues to increase over a prolonged period of time. This effect may be a result of cautious businesses that add hours to existing employees in order to increase production capacity rather than hiring new workers. Investopedia explains Jobless Recovery
An example of a jobless recovery occurred in the early 1990s. While the American recession from the late 1980s technically ended in the first quarter of 1991, the unemployment rate did not actually stabilize until the middle of 1992
from investopedia
who says jobs must recover then econ recover?? jobs are for commoners...people who create crisis dont listen to commoners
A Review Of Past Recessions
by Dan Barufaldi (Contact Author | Biography)Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsFiled Under: Economics, Insurance
Did you know that there have been several recessions in the U.S. since the "Great Depression"? It's surprising to be sure, especially when you see these events covered in the media as one-time horrors.
Let's take a look at some of these recessions, how long they lasted, how they affected gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment, and what is known about what caused them. (For more on this read, What Caused The Great Depression? and The Crash of 1929 - Could It Happen Again?)
What's a Recession?
A recession historically has been defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, the combined value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. It differs from the gross national product (GNP) in that it does not include the value of goods and services produced by U.S. companies abroad or goods and services received in the U.S. as imports. (For more on this see, The Importance of Inflation and GDP.)
A more modern definition of a recession that's used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Dating Committee, the group entrusted to call the start and end dates of a recession, is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."
In 2007, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), Jeremy J. Nalewaik, suggested that a combination of GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) may be more accurate in predicting and defining a recession.
The Roosevelt Recession: (May 1937 - June 1938)
Duration: 13 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.4
Unemployment Rate: 19.1% (more than four million unemployed)
Reasons and Causes: The stock market crashed in late 1937. Business blamed the "New Deal", a series of government-financed infrastructure work projects through the Works Projects Administration (WPA) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). These camps provided work and room and board for more than 250,000 men. Government blamed a "capital strike" (lack of investment) on the part of business while "New Dealers" blamed cuts in WPA funding. The first Social Security Insurance deductions pulled $2 billion out of circulation at this time.
The Union Recession: (February 1945 - October 1945)
Duration: 9 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 11
Unemployment Rate: 1.9%
Reasons and Causes: The tail-end of World War II, the beginning of demobilization of military forces and the slow transition to civilian production marked this period. War production had virtually ceased and veterans were just beginning to re-enter the workforce. It was also known as the "Union Recession" as unions were beginning to reassert themselves. Minimum wages were on the rise and credit was tight.
The Post-War Recession: (November 1948 - October 1949)
Duration: 11 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 1.1
Unemployment Rate: 5.9%
Reasons and Causes: As returning veterans returned to the workforce in large numbers to compete for jobs with existing civilian workers who had entered the workforce during the war, unemployment began to rise. The government's response was minimal as it was much more worried about inflation than unemployment at that time.
The Post-Korean War Recession: (July 1953 - May 1954)
Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 2.2
Unemployment Rate: 2.9% (lowest rate since WWII)
Reasons and causes: After an inflationary period that followed the Korean War, more dollars were directed at national security. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to curb inflation in 1952. The dramatic change in interest rates caused increased pessimism about the economy and decreased aggregate demand.
The Eisenhower Recession: (August 1957 - April 1958)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.3%
Unemployment Rate: 6.2%
Reasons and Causes: The government tightened monetary policy to years prior to the recession to curb inflation, but prices continued to rise in the U.S. through 1959. The sharp world-wide recession and the strong U.S. dollar contributed to a foreign trade deficit. (For another view on trade deficits read, In Praise of Trade Deficits.)
The "Rolling Adjustment" Recession: (April 1960 - February 1961)
Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 2.4
Unemployment Rate: 6.9%
Reasons and Causes: This recession was also known as the "rolling adjustment" for many major U.S. industries, including the automotive industry. Americans shifted to buying compact and often foreign-made cars and industry drew down inventories. Gross national product (GNP) and product demand declined.
The Nixon Recession: (December 1969 - November 1970)
Duration: 11 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 0.8
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: Increasing inflation caused the government to employ a very restrictive monetary policy. The structure of government expenditures added to the contraction in economic activity.
The Oil Crisis Recession: (November 1973 - March 1975)
Duration: 16 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.6
Unemployment Rate: 8.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long, deep recession was brought on by the quadrupling of oil prices and high government spending on the Vietnam War. This led to "stagflation" and high unemployment. Unemployment finally reached 9% in May of 1975. (For more on this see, Stagflation, 1970s Style.)
The Energy Crisis Recession: (January 1980 - July 1980)
Duration: 6 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 1.1%
Unemployment Rate: 7.8%
Reasons and Causes: Inflation had reached 13.5% and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and slowed money supply growth, which slowed the economy and caused unemployment to rise. Energy prices and supply were put at risk causing a confidence crisis as well as inflation.
The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession: (July 1981 - November 1982)
Duration: 16 months.
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 3.6%
Unemployment Rate: 10.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long and deep recession was caused by the regime change in Iran; the world's second largest producer of oil at the time, the country came to regard the U.S. as a supporter of its ousted regime. The "New" Iran exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at lower volumes, forcing prices higher. The U.S. government enforced a tighter monetary policy to control rampant inflation, which had been carried over from the previous two oil and energy crises. The prime rate reached 21.5% in 1982.
The Gulf War Recession: (July 1990 - March 1991)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 1.5
Unemployment Rate: 6.8%
Reasons and causes: Iraq invaded Kuwait. This resulted in a spike in the price of oil in 1990, which caused manufacturing trade sales to decline. This was combined with the impact of manufacturing being moving offshore as the provisions of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) kicked in. The leveraged buyout of United Airlines triggered a stock market crash.
The 9/11 Recession: (March 2001 - November 2001)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 0.3
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: The collapse of the dotcom bubble, the 9/11 attacks and a series of accounting scandals at major U.S. corporations contributed to this relatively mild contraction of the U.S. economy. In the next few months, GDP recovered to its former level. (For more information, read Crashes: The Dotcom Crash.)
Conclusions
So what do all these very different recessions have in common? For one, oil price, demand and supply sensitivity appear to be consistent and frequent historical precursors to U.S. recessions. A spike in oil prices has preceded nine out of 10 post-WWII recessions. This highlights that while global integration of economies allows for more effective cooperative efforts between governments to prevent or mitigate future recessions, the integration itself ties the world economies more closely together, making them more susceptible to problems outside their borders. Better government safeguards should soften the effects of recessions as long as regulations are in place and enforced; better communications technology and sales & inventory tracking allows businesses and governments to have better transparency on a real time basis so that corrective actions are made to forestall the accumulation of factors and indicators contributing to or signaling a recession.
More recent recessions, such as the housing bubble, the resulting credit crisis and the subsequent government bailouts are examples of excesses not properly or competently regulated by the patchwork of government regulation of financial institutions. (For another perspective on credit crisis, see The Bright Side of The Credit Crisis.)
Contraction and expansion cycles of moderate amplitude are part of the economic system. World events, energy crises, wars and government intervention in markets can affect economies both positively and negatively, and will continue to do so in the future. Expansions have historically exceeded previous highs in economic growth trends if capitalist fundamentals applied within regulatory guidelines govern the markets.
by Dan Barufaldi , (Contact Author | Biography)
Dan Barufaldi is an Independent Consultant associated with the management consulting and global business development firm, Globe Lynx Group, located in Lewiston, NY. He has a Bachelors degree in economics from Cornell University. Barufaldi has authored business articles and columns in four newspapers and several Chamber of Commerce publications.
Filed Under: Economics, Insurance
by Dan Barufaldi (Contact Author | Biography)Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsFiled Under: Economics, Insurance
Did you know that there have been several recessions in the U.S. since the "Great Depression"? It's surprising to be sure, especially when you see these events covered in the media as one-time horrors.
Let's take a look at some of these recessions, how long they lasted, how they affected gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment, and what is known about what caused them. (For more on this read, What Caused The Great Depression? and The Crash of 1929 - Could It Happen Again?)
What's a Recession?
A recession historically has been defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, the combined value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. It differs from the gross national product (GNP) in that it does not include the value of goods and services produced by U.S. companies abroad or goods and services received in the U.S. as imports. (For more on this see, The Importance of Inflation and GDP.)
A more modern definition of a recession that's used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Dating Committee, the group entrusted to call the start and end dates of a recession, is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."
In 2007, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), Jeremy J. Nalewaik, suggested that a combination of GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) may be more accurate in predicting and defining a recession.
The Roosevelt Recession: (May 1937 - June 1938)
Duration: 13 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.4
Unemployment Rate: 19.1% (more than four million unemployed)
Reasons and Causes: The stock market crashed in late 1937. Business blamed the "New Deal", a series of government-financed infrastructure work projects through the Works Projects Administration (WPA) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). These camps provided work and room and board for more than 250,000 men. Government blamed a "capital strike" (lack of investment) on the part of business while "New Dealers" blamed cuts in WPA funding. The first Social Security Insurance deductions pulled $2 billion out of circulation at this time.
The Union Recession: (February 1945 - October 1945)
Duration: 9 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 11
Unemployment Rate: 1.9%
Reasons and Causes: The tail-end of World War II, the beginning of demobilization of military forces and the slow transition to civilian production marked this period. War production had virtually ceased and veterans were just beginning to re-enter the workforce. It was also known as the "Union Recession" as unions were beginning to reassert themselves. Minimum wages were on the rise and credit was tight.
The Post-War Recession: (November 1948 - October 1949)
Duration: 11 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 1.1
Unemployment Rate: 5.9%
Reasons and Causes: As returning veterans returned to the workforce in large numbers to compete for jobs with existing civilian workers who had entered the workforce during the war, unemployment began to rise. The government's response was minimal as it was much more worried about inflation than unemployment at that time.
The Post-Korean War Recession: (July 1953 - May 1954)
Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 2.2
Unemployment Rate: 2.9% (lowest rate since WWII)
Reasons and causes: After an inflationary period that followed the Korean War, more dollars were directed at national security. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to curb inflation in 1952. The dramatic change in interest rates caused increased pessimism about the economy and decreased aggregate demand.
The Eisenhower Recession: (August 1957 - April 1958)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.3%
Unemployment Rate: 6.2%
Reasons and Causes: The government tightened monetary policy to years prior to the recession to curb inflation, but prices continued to rise in the U.S. through 1959. The sharp world-wide recession and the strong U.S. dollar contributed to a foreign trade deficit. (For another view on trade deficits read, In Praise of Trade Deficits.)
The "Rolling Adjustment" Recession: (April 1960 - February 1961)
Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 2.4
Unemployment Rate: 6.9%
Reasons and Causes: This recession was also known as the "rolling adjustment" for many major U.S. industries, including the automotive industry. Americans shifted to buying compact and often foreign-made cars and industry drew down inventories. Gross national product (GNP) and product demand declined.
The Nixon Recession: (December 1969 - November 1970)
Duration: 11 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 0.8
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: Increasing inflation caused the government to employ a very restrictive monetary policy. The structure of government expenditures added to the contraction in economic activity.
The Oil Crisis Recession: (November 1973 - March 1975)
Duration: 16 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.6
Unemployment Rate: 8.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long, deep recession was brought on by the quadrupling of oil prices and high government spending on the Vietnam War. This led to "stagflation" and high unemployment. Unemployment finally reached 9% in May of 1975. (For more on this see, Stagflation, 1970s Style.)
The Energy Crisis Recession: (January 1980 - July 1980)
Duration: 6 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 1.1%
Unemployment Rate: 7.8%
Reasons and Causes: Inflation had reached 13.5% and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and slowed money supply growth, which slowed the economy and caused unemployment to rise. Energy prices and supply were put at risk causing a confidence crisis as well as inflation.
The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession: (July 1981 - November 1982)
Duration: 16 months.
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 3.6%
Unemployment Rate: 10.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long and deep recession was caused by the regime change in Iran; the world's second largest producer of oil at the time, the country came to regard the U.S. as a supporter of its ousted regime. The "New" Iran exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at lower volumes, forcing prices higher. The U.S. government enforced a tighter monetary policy to control rampant inflation, which had been carried over from the previous two oil and energy crises. The prime rate reached 21.5% in 1982.
The Gulf War Recession: (July 1990 - March 1991)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 1.5
Unemployment Rate: 6.8%
Reasons and causes: Iraq invaded Kuwait. This resulted in a spike in the price of oil in 1990, which caused manufacturing trade sales to decline. This was combined with the impact of manufacturing being moving offshore as the provisions of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) kicked in. The leveraged buyout of United Airlines triggered a stock market crash.
The 9/11 Recession: (March 2001 - November 2001)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 0.3
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: The collapse of the dotcom bubble, the 9/11 attacks and a series of accounting scandals at major U.S. corporations contributed to this relatively mild contraction of the U.S. economy. In the next few months, GDP recovered to its former level. (For more information, read Crashes: The Dotcom Crash.)
Conclusions
So what do all these very different recessions have in common? For one, oil price, demand and supply sensitivity appear to be consistent and frequent historical precursors to U.S. recessions. A spike in oil prices has preceded nine out of 10 post-WWII recessions. This highlights that while global integration of economies allows for more effective cooperative efforts between governments to prevent or mitigate future recessions, the integration itself ties the world economies more closely together, making them more susceptible to problems outside their borders. Better government safeguards should soften the effects of recessions as long as regulations are in place and enforced; better communications technology and sales & inventory tracking allows businesses and governments to have better transparency on a real time basis so that corrective actions are made to forestall the accumulation of factors and indicators contributing to or signaling a recession.
More recent recessions, such as the housing bubble, the resulting credit crisis and the subsequent government bailouts are examples of excesses not properly or competently regulated by the patchwork of government regulation of financial institutions. (For another perspective on credit crisis, see The Bright Side of The Credit Crisis.)
Contraction and expansion cycles of moderate amplitude are part of the economic system. World events, energy crises, wars and government intervention in markets can affect economies both positively and negatively, and will continue to do so in the future. Expansions have historically exceeded previous highs in economic growth trends if capitalist fundamentals applied within regulatory guidelines govern the markets.
by Dan Barufaldi , (Contact Author | Biography)
Dan Barufaldi is an Independent Consultant associated with the management consulting and global business development firm, Globe Lynx Group, located in Lewiston, NY. He has a Bachelors degree in economics from Cornell University. Barufaldi has authored business articles and columns in four newspapers and several Chamber of Commerce publications.
Filed Under: Economics, Insurance
Sunday, February 14, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Undervalued Given Growth Outlook -ML (2007/07/02 14:23PM)
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0623 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China (B15.SG) is undervalued given its steady growth outlook, nationwide franchise and China''s booming cosmetics market, according to Merrill Lynch. Company due to acquire new plant for HK$293 million in 2H07 which Merrill says could be long-term positive; however, warns "it raises its risk profile in the near term given BCH''s lack of track record in this area." Brokerage has Buy rating, S$1.38 price target; trades down 0.8% at S$1.25 on thin volume, support at intraday low of S$1.22. (JEM)
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0623 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China (B15.SG) is undervalued given its steady growth outlook, nationwide franchise and China''s booming cosmetics market, according to Merrill Lynch. Company due to acquire new plant for HK$293 million in 2H07 which Merrill says could be long-term positive; however, warns "it raises its risk profile in the near term given BCH''s lack of track record in this area." Brokerage has Buy rating, S$1.38 price target; trades down 0.8% at S$1.25 on thin volume, support at intraday low of S$1.22. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Harvest Fund QDII To Benefit S-Chips - UBS (2007/10/02 10:26AM)
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0226 GMT [Dow Jones] China''s approval last week for Harvest Fund QDII to invest in S-chips was six months ahead of expectations, says UBS. Expects move to trigger wave of liquidity in China shares listed in Singapore, or S-shares, which trade at a discount to Hong Kong peers; says companies with unique China exposure vs mainland and Hong Kong offerings look the most attractive. Top S-chip picks are Hungguo (H14.SG), Sino Environment (Y62.SG) and Raffles Education (R17.SG). (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 01, 2007 22:26 ET (02:26 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. DJ MARKET TALK:Merrill Cuts Celestial Target To S$1.18, Keeps Buy (2008/02/26 11:10AM)
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0310 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch lowers target price for Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) to S$1.18 from S$1.92, but keeps Buy call. Says firm likely to continue facing high soybean costs. "We believe the group could only pass on part of the higher costs and forecast an 8% drop in FY08 margins," says analyst Eddy Loh in note. But notes Celestial''s 4Q07 results were within expectations; company likely to see robust sales growth in 2008 through launch of new beverage and powder products, commercial startup of biodiesel plant in 3Q08. Share down 5.6% at S$0.67. (FCS)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Celestial Nutrifoods At Outperform (2007/10/08 10:35AM)
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0235 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) at Outperform, maintains S$2.23 target price. "We recently visited Celestial''s production facilities in Lindian and Daqing, China and came away convinced that its expansion plans are on track." Notes company has started producing two new products on trial basis, new biodiesel plant nearly completed, products prominently displayed in leading Chinese supermarkets. Says positive on outlook, but no change to earnings estimates. Stock currently +0.6% at S$1.55. (KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises Ferrochina Target Price To S$2.44 (2008/05/22 11:51AM)
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0351 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises Ferrochina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.44 from S$2.11, reiterates Outperform call after plant visit. Broker says steel product maker''s expansion of Xinghai and Xingyu facilities appears to be on track. Adds new product lines should boost output, improve product mix and gross margins; company seeking strategic investor to move further upstream in order to secure raw materials. Says target price hike reflects, "improved business visibility and possible value-creation from strategic investors." New target price still assumes 35% discount to industry peers to reflect its smaller size. Share down 0.6% at S$1.64. (KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises FerroChina Target To S$2.11 (2008/04/29 16:35PM)
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0835 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises FerroChina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.11 from S$2.09 after increasing FY08 earnings estimate 15% on enlarged capacity and higher average selling prices, or ASPs. Also raises FY09-10 forecasts to account for the timing of new capacity, higher ASPs, higher group expenses, lower forex gains. "Given FRC''s excellent business visibility, we maintain Outperform." Notes 1Q08 net profit +161% on-year at CNY188.5 million, came in 15% above house''s annualized estimate, but 6% below market consensus. Says key variance higher revenue of CNY3 billion (+167% on-year) with increased capacity from Superb Team acquisition, higher ASPs on strong demand, significantly higher other income as a result of forex gains from weaker USD/CNY, USD/SGD; notes 1Q08 net profit marks 23% of house''s FY08 forecast. Notes gross margin steady at 8.8% despite rising HRC feedstock prices, exacerbated by higher iron ore and coking coal prices. Share down 4.9% at S$1.37. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: DBS Keeps FerroChina At Buy, Target At S$3.38 (2007/10/25 16:29PM)
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0829 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: DBS Vickers keeps FerroChina (F33.SG) at Buy, with target price at S$3.38 after company visit. "We continue to like FerroChina given its firm growth outlook, driven by both organic expansion and acquisitions." Says valuations undemanding at less than 9X FY08 earnings, with share one of cheapest Singapore-listed China plays above S$1 billion in market capitalization. "The successful acquisition of Superb Team will help transform FerroChina into one of China''s largest independent galvanised steel producers and help underpin robust earnings growth into FY09." Notes FerroChina to be among 10 largest S-chip by market capitalization after purchase; says should help attract QDII funds. Share up 4.2% at S$2.48. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina May Become Blue Chip - CIMB (2007/05/22 16:26PM)
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0826 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) off 0.9% at S$2.30 in heavy volume, slips back on profit taking after equaling record high of S$2.43 set on Friday. CIMB says company "poised to become a major global galvanized steel player and is likely to achieve blue-chip status in a few years." Keeps at Outperform with target price of S$3.10, based on 9.0X CY08 P/E; says "as the company continues to grow in size and establishes itself as a global leader in galvanized steel, we believe it should at least trade closer to its peers." Thinks expansion activities could lead to a threefold expansion in capacity in coming years. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina Valuations Very Undemanding - Daiwa (2007/06/29 09:19AM)
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0119 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) +0.9% at S$2.21 on thin volume; current valuations very undemanding, with the stock trading at a 36% PER discount to Hong Kong-listed integrated steel stocks, according to Daiwa. Following company gaining full control over its associate, Superb Team, brokerage estimates total processing capacity will increase to 1.7 million tonnes, 4.25 million tonnes for FY07, FY08 respectively (+86%, 151% on year); says "resultant synergies and margin expansion would drive stronger earnings growth for FY07 and FY08." Raises target price to S$3.42 from S$2.29, keeps at Buy; upside capped at week high of S$2.30. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: MS Starts China Milk At Overweight, S$2 Target (2007/11/02 13:57PM)
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0557 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts China Milk Products Group (G86.SG) at Overweight with S$2 target. Says company is one of best plays on resource productivity, with cattle herd boasting best composition of pedigree bulls, cows in China. "We believe the market is missing the full benefits of the management''s ability to improve herd mix to drive higher milk yield, quality cattle semen and embryos, and in turn support margin trend, along with a further government push to improve cattle genetics in China." Stock +3.3% at S$1.24 midday. (FKH)
DJ MARKET TALK: Phillip Upgrades China Sun To Buy, 85.5C Target (2007/05/29 10:03AM)
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0203 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Phillip Securities ups China Sun Bio-chem Technology (C86.SG) to Buy from Hold, lifts fair value to S$0.855 from S$0.81; notes stock currently trades at valuations of 7.9x FY07 PER, 6.3x FY08 PER, believes "such low valuations are unjustified, given its leading industry position and medium term growth potential." Expects adjusted EPS to grow at 3-year CAGR of 19% between FY07, FY09 after company posted 23% on year rise in 1Q07 net profit to CNY82.1 million. Trades up 0.8% at S$0.67 on modest volume. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Selloff Is Overreaction - ML (2007/09/27 08:15AM)
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0015 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG) share price fall on news 3Q earnings growth may slow is unjustified, says Merrill Lynch. "In our view, the market simply overreacted. We have pointed out our expectations for a slower 2H07 many times in our research, and BCH has also communicated cost concerns with investors before." Adds company remains cheapest China consumer play; "the recent price weakness represents a good entry point." No change to earnings forecast, reiterates Buy rating, maintains S$1.38 target. Shares closed down 2.7% at S$1.09 yesterday.(KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Beauty China At Outperform, Tgt S$1.67 (2007/11/22 16:12PM)
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0812 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Beauty China (B15.SG) at Outperform with target price of S$1.67; says target at 60% discount to China retail peers due to its smaller size. Says Beauty China trading at 9X 2009 earnings vs 20X for Singapore-listed China retail stock China Hongxing (BR9.SG). Notes commercial production at company''s new plant began mid-October, group has secured HK$2 million worth of orders. Notes 9M07 earnings about 68% of CIMB FY forecast; projects 4Q07 revenue of HK$197.8 million with net profit at HK$38.2 million; expects margins to narrow on seasonally higher A&P expenses, higher packaging costs, start-up losses from new plant. Share down 4.6% at S$1.24; STI down 0.9%. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Fundamentals Still Good -UOBKH (2008/06/13 14:07PM)
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0607 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG)fundamentals remain intact with no slowdown for China retail sales, says UOB KayHian; reiterates Buy call, keeps target price unchanged at S$1.38. Notes cosmetics firm''s shares are now 43% below 52-week high of S$1.48 hit on Jan 2; blames fears of slowdown in consumption following China snowstorms, earthquake and concerns over margin squeeze from higher raw material prices. But says China retail sales still solid, registering record high in April whilst new products, increasing utilization rates should help ease margin pressure. "Considering the bright prospects of the cosmetics industry, the production ramp-up at the new plant and the launch of new products with higher margins, we remain positive on the stock." Shares currently down 0.6% at S$0.84. (KIG)
I REPOST OLD NEWS TO SHOW THAT NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS ARE WORSE AND MORE INACCURATE THAN TECHNICALS... PUI ;OUSY S SHARES!!LUCKILY DUE TO ME LOOKING DOWN ON SINGAPORE ABILITY TO ATTRACT BIG FOREIGN COMPANIES,I DECIDED TO INVEST IN ZERO S SHARES FOR LONG TERM SINCE 2005.AND NOW WITH THESE NEWS ON CHINA MILK I WILL NOT EVEN TOUCH THEM FOR DAY TRADING..
I NEVER EVEN KENA ONE SUSPENDED SHARE DUE TO MY PRUDENCE.
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0226 GMT [Dow Jones] China''s approval last week for Harvest Fund QDII to invest in S-chips was six months ahead of expectations, says UBS. Expects move to trigger wave of liquidity in China shares listed in Singapore, or S-shares, which trade at a discount to Hong Kong peers; says companies with unique China exposure vs mainland and Hong Kong offerings look the most attractive. Top S-chip picks are Hungguo (H14.SG), Sino Environment (Y62.SG) and Raffles Education (R17.SG). (KIG)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 01, 2007 22:26 ET (02:26 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. DJ MARKET TALK:Merrill Cuts Celestial Target To S$1.18, Keeps Buy (2008/02/26 11:10AM)
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0310 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch lowers target price for Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) to S$1.18 from S$1.92, but keeps Buy call. Says firm likely to continue facing high soybean costs. "We believe the group could only pass on part of the higher costs and forecast an 8% drop in FY08 margins," says analyst Eddy Loh in note. But notes Celestial''s 4Q07 results were within expectations; company likely to see robust sales growth in 2008 through launch of new beverage and powder products, commercial startup of biodiesel plant in 3Q08. Share down 5.6% at S$0.67. (FCS)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Celestial Nutrifoods At Outperform (2007/10/08 10:35AM)
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0235 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) at Outperform, maintains S$2.23 target price. "We recently visited Celestial''s production facilities in Lindian and Daqing, China and came away convinced that its expansion plans are on track." Notes company has started producing two new products on trial basis, new biodiesel plant nearly completed, products prominently displayed in leading Chinese supermarkets. Says positive on outlook, but no change to earnings estimates. Stock currently +0.6% at S$1.55. (KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises Ferrochina Target Price To S$2.44 (2008/05/22 11:51AM)
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0351 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises Ferrochina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.44 from S$2.11, reiterates Outperform call after plant visit. Broker says steel product maker''s expansion of Xinghai and Xingyu facilities appears to be on track. Adds new product lines should boost output, improve product mix and gross margins; company seeking strategic investor to move further upstream in order to secure raw materials. Says target price hike reflects, "improved business visibility and possible value-creation from strategic investors." New target price still assumes 35% discount to industry peers to reflect its smaller size. Share down 0.6% at S$1.64. (KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises FerroChina Target To S$2.11 (2008/04/29 16:35PM)
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0835 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises FerroChina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.11 from S$2.09 after increasing FY08 earnings estimate 15% on enlarged capacity and higher average selling prices, or ASPs. Also raises FY09-10 forecasts to account for the timing of new capacity, higher ASPs, higher group expenses, lower forex gains. "Given FRC''s excellent business visibility, we maintain Outperform." Notes 1Q08 net profit +161% on-year at CNY188.5 million, came in 15% above house''s annualized estimate, but 6% below market consensus. Says key variance higher revenue of CNY3 billion (+167% on-year) with increased capacity from Superb Team acquisition, higher ASPs on strong demand, significantly higher other income as a result of forex gains from weaker USD/CNY, USD/SGD; notes 1Q08 net profit marks 23% of house''s FY08 forecast. Notes gross margin steady at 8.8% despite rising HRC feedstock prices, exacerbated by higher iron ore and coking coal prices. Share down 4.9% at S$1.37. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: DBS Keeps FerroChina At Buy, Target At S$3.38 (2007/10/25 16:29PM)
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0829 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: DBS Vickers keeps FerroChina (F33.SG) at Buy, with target price at S$3.38 after company visit. "We continue to like FerroChina given its firm growth outlook, driven by both organic expansion and acquisitions." Says valuations undemanding at less than 9X FY08 earnings, with share one of cheapest Singapore-listed China plays above S$1 billion in market capitalization. "The successful acquisition of Superb Team will help transform FerroChina into one of China''s largest independent galvanised steel producers and help underpin robust earnings growth into FY09." Notes FerroChina to be among 10 largest S-chip by market capitalization after purchase; says should help attract QDII funds. Share up 4.2% at S$2.48. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina May Become Blue Chip - CIMB (2007/05/22 16:26PM)
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0826 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) off 0.9% at S$2.30 in heavy volume, slips back on profit taking after equaling record high of S$2.43 set on Friday. CIMB says company "poised to become a major global galvanized steel player and is likely to achieve blue-chip status in a few years." Keeps at Outperform with target price of S$3.10, based on 9.0X CY08 P/E; says "as the company continues to grow in size and establishes itself as a global leader in galvanized steel, we believe it should at least trade closer to its peers." Thinks expansion activities could lead to a threefold expansion in capacity in coming years. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina Valuations Very Undemanding - Daiwa (2007/06/29 09:19AM)
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0119 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) +0.9% at S$2.21 on thin volume; current valuations very undemanding, with the stock trading at a 36% PER discount to Hong Kong-listed integrated steel stocks, according to Daiwa. Following company gaining full control over its associate, Superb Team, brokerage estimates total processing capacity will increase to 1.7 million tonnes, 4.25 million tonnes for FY07, FY08 respectively (+86%, 151% on year); says "resultant synergies and margin expansion would drive stronger earnings growth for FY07 and FY08." Raises target price to S$3.42 from S$2.29, keeps at Buy; upside capped at week high of S$2.30. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: MS Starts China Milk At Overweight, S$2 Target (2007/11/02 13:57PM)
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0557 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts China Milk Products Group (G86.SG) at Overweight with S$2 target. Says company is one of best plays on resource productivity, with cattle herd boasting best composition of pedigree bulls, cows in China. "We believe the market is missing the full benefits of the management''s ability to improve herd mix to drive higher milk yield, quality cattle semen and embryos, and in turn support margin trend, along with a further government push to improve cattle genetics in China." Stock +3.3% at S$1.24 midday. (FKH)
DJ MARKET TALK: Phillip Upgrades China Sun To Buy, 85.5C Target (2007/05/29 10:03AM)
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0203 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Phillip Securities ups China Sun Bio-chem Technology (C86.SG) to Buy from Hold, lifts fair value to S$0.855 from S$0.81; notes stock currently trades at valuations of 7.9x FY07 PER, 6.3x FY08 PER, believes "such low valuations are unjustified, given its leading industry position and medium term growth potential." Expects adjusted EPS to grow at 3-year CAGR of 19% between FY07, FY09 after company posted 23% on year rise in 1Q07 net profit to CNY82.1 million. Trades up 0.8% at S$0.67 on modest volume. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Selloff Is Overreaction - ML (2007/09/27 08:15AM)
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0015 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG) share price fall on news 3Q earnings growth may slow is unjustified, says Merrill Lynch. "In our view, the market simply overreacted. We have pointed out our expectations for a slower 2H07 many times in our research, and BCH has also communicated cost concerns with investors before." Adds company remains cheapest China consumer play; "the recent price weakness represents a good entry point." No change to earnings forecast, reiterates Buy rating, maintains S$1.38 target. Shares closed down 2.7% at S$1.09 yesterday.(KIG)
DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Beauty China At Outperform, Tgt S$1.67 (2007/11/22 16:12PM)
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0812 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Beauty China (B15.SG) at Outperform with target price of S$1.67; says target at 60% discount to China retail peers due to its smaller size. Says Beauty China trading at 9X 2009 earnings vs 20X for Singapore-listed China retail stock China Hongxing (BR9.SG). Notes commercial production at company''s new plant began mid-October, group has secured HK$2 million worth of orders. Notes 9M07 earnings about 68% of CIMB FY forecast; projects 4Q07 revenue of HK$197.8 million with net profit at HK$38.2 million; expects margins to narrow on seasonally higher A&P expenses, higher packaging costs, start-up losses from new plant. Share down 4.6% at S$1.24; STI down 0.9%. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Fundamentals Still Good -UOBKH (2008/06/13 14:07PM)
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0607 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG)fundamentals remain intact with no slowdown for China retail sales, says UOB KayHian; reiterates Buy call, keeps target price unchanged at S$1.38. Notes cosmetics firm''s shares are now 43% below 52-week high of S$1.48 hit on Jan 2; blames fears of slowdown in consumption following China snowstorms, earthquake and concerns over margin squeeze from higher raw material prices. But says China retail sales still solid, registering record high in April whilst new products, increasing utilization rates should help ease margin pressure. "Considering the bright prospects of the cosmetics industry, the production ramp-up at the new plant and the launch of new products with higher margins, we remain positive on the stock." Shares currently down 0.6% at S$0.84. (KIG)
I REPOST OLD NEWS TO SHOW THAT NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS ARE WORSE AND MORE INACCURATE THAN TECHNICALS... PUI ;OUSY S SHARES!!LUCKILY DUE TO ME LOOKING DOWN ON SINGAPORE ABILITY TO ATTRACT BIG FOREIGN COMPANIES,I DECIDED TO INVEST IN ZERO S SHARES FOR LONG TERM SINCE 2005.AND NOW WITH THESE NEWS ON CHINA MILK I WILL NOT EVEN TOUCH THEM FOR DAY TRADING..
I NEVER EVEN KENA ONE SUSPENDED SHARE DUE TO MY PRUDENCE.
Saturday, February 13, 2010
Home > Breaking News > Singapore > Story
Feb 12, 2010
S'pore - 53rd most liveable
By Jessica
SINGAPORE scores highly in areas like infrastructure and stability, but fares poorly in culture and living environment indices.
As a result, it was ranked the 53rd most liveable city in the annual survey by the The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which compared 140 cities worldwide. Vancouver again topped the list, followed by Vienna and Melbourne in Australia. Three other Australian cities also made it to the top 10 list - Sydney, Perth and Adelaide.
The Republic scored better than culture capitals New York and London, which lost out because of crumbling infrastructure, but lagged behind other Asian capitals like Hong Kong, Tokyo and Osaka.
The survey examined 30 factors in five categories - stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education as well as infrastructure. Singapore obtained an overall score of 88.5/100.
The annual survey uses research involving resident experts and its own analysts.
Singapore lost out in the environment and culture category, in which it scored 75.7/100, lower than Hong Kong and South Korea. But it got full marks for infrastructure. The Lion City also fared well for stability, healthcare and education.
Feb 12, 2010
S'pore - 53rd most liveable
By Jessica
SINGAPORE scores highly in areas like infrastructure and stability, but fares poorly in culture and living environment indices.
As a result, it was ranked the 53rd most liveable city in the annual survey by the The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which compared 140 cities worldwide. Vancouver again topped the list, followed by Vienna and Melbourne in Australia. Three other Australian cities also made it to the top 10 list - Sydney, Perth and Adelaide.
The Republic scored better than culture capitals New York and London, which lost out because of crumbling infrastructure, but lagged behind other Asian capitals like Hong Kong, Tokyo and Osaka.
The survey examined 30 factors in five categories - stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education as well as infrastructure. Singapore obtained an overall score of 88.5/100.
The annual survey uses research involving resident experts and its own analysts.
Singapore lost out in the environment and culture category, in which it scored 75.7/100, lower than Hong Kong and South Korea. But it got full marks for infrastructure. The Lion City also fared well for stability, healthcare and education.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
WHY THE FINAL TARGET OF 2375--2400???
point1:
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WAVE 2 OF 5 WAVE ELLIOT THEORY..
WHY WAVE 2??
--from Elliott wave principle
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
WAVE 1 WAS STI VALUE FROM 1455 TO 2950 AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CORRECTIONS--a correction is defined to be 10 percent or more..
a.in april 2009-sti drop from 1942 to 1791--drop of 8.3pervcent
b.in may 2009,sti drop from 2283 to 2094--drop of 8.3percent ALSO!!!!
c. in june-july 2009,sti drop from 2417 to 2211--a drop of 8.5percent !
d. in aungust 2009, sti drop from 2700 to 2521--drop of only 6.7percent
THERE ARE NO 10PERCENT DROPS--CORRECTIONS as yet hence sti is due for a correction of at MOST 20percent from 2950...
point 2 :why 20percent??--because technically speakinga 20percent drop from the top is defined as "BEAR MARKET ENTRY POINT",hence there will be a lot of support there--
hence 80percent of 2950--2360!!!
point 3: as stated just now in point 1.--Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.
wave 1 gains stand at 1500 points:the 61.8percent of wave 1 stands at 2380!!!(depicted in chart)
point 4:300day SMA stands at 2295 as of 10feb 2010,hence when sti drift downwards,the 300days SMA shall go up to around 2350s-2400s
point 5: wave 3 is the strongest and longest wave of 5wave elliot theory..
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.---wikipedia
hence 2375 will be the BEST launching pad to take sti to 3900,the 2007 highest point--as wave 1 was 1500points---u add that to wave 3 which is MINIMUM 1500points--WONT U GET 3900 minimum??
and as stated wave 3 extends wave 1 by 161.8percent ABOVE---hence sti will crack the 3900 and probably to 4700!!!!!!!!!
point no.6--sti BREAK DOWN of channel of 200points--2700 to 2521--hence the target is also 2300s to 2400.
in conclusion---please dont miss wave 3 UP!!
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
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