(Continued on FURTHER PROOF heading towards 1380!!!

NEW EVIDENCE

upleg1:last week,9th week, candlestickbody open up from 880 to 930
(1576-666) 23.6pc 880 AND (1466-903)0pc at 903

upleg2:last week,10th week,candlestick body up from lowest value in 10th week-1035-1074
(1576-666) 38.2pc 1013 AND (1466-903) 23.6pc at 1036

upleg3:last week,10th week,candlestick body open up from 1117 to 1145
(1576--666) 50pc 1121 AND (1466-903)38.2pc at 1118

upleg4 last week,10th week, candlestick bodyopen from 1184 to 1218
(1576-666) 61.8pc 1228 AND (1466-903) 50pc at 1185

upleg5 last week,10th week, candlestick body open from 1185 to 1228
(1576-666)61.8pc, 1228 AND (1466-903)50pc at 1185

upleg6 NOW 6th week,10th week?,candlestick body MOST PROBABLY open at 1346!! and highs at 1400
WHY 1346?
(1576--666) 78.6pc,1381 AND (1466-903)78.6pc at 1346

at6th week, we past the (1466-903)61.8pc at 1251,hence 10th week of 6th upleg candlestick body WILL open at 1346,as shown by prev 5 10wk upleg, that 10th week candlestick body opening values always at fibs of range(1466-903)and the max or closing values of 10th week ALWAYS higher OR equal to the fibs of range(1576-666){EXCEPT 1ST UPLEG where starting value is 23.6pc of (1576--666)}




CONCLUSION:

HENCE LAST WEEK,10th week of 6th upleg will be starting from 1346 and closing above OR EQUAL to 1381)

REMEMBER THIS MSG????????????AT LAST THURSDAY 27JAN 2011,SP500 CLOSING WAS 1299,HOW TO REACH 1346 IN FRIDAY CLOSING???WHEN I SAW THAT I QUICKLY DOWNGRADED MY TARGET IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,AT NIGHT USMKT DROP?!!SO OBEDIENT TO MY DOWNGRADE!!u look at the timing of the posts if you dont believe me.

IF YOU BELIEVE IN NEWS ,U R INDEED A PATHETIC PERSON,NAIVE AND pure,NOT fit for the stockmarket lies!

why japan nikkei cant go up?i thought food inflation boosts farmers since japan protects farmers.why china,vietnam go up today???
i thought china and vietnam hard hit by food inflation?!!

I LOVE USE FUCKAMENTALS TO FUCK FUCKAMENTALS!!

i will explain why china go up today...i told u all china base building time is always a round number.this current base in sse start from nov15 2010.hence if its not jan 15,22 next will of course come the feb15-22.BUT feb 2-feb8,2011,china close due to CNY.hence there is not much time left to push to 2894 within 2weeks if CHINA DOESNT GO UP TODAY!

I EXPOSE THE LIES OF THE MEDIA!!!

Egypt Woes Bring Global Food Inflation Fears to Fore
Published: Sunday, 30 Jan 2011 | 9:37 PM ET Text Size By: Bob Pisani
CNBC Reporter

WHAT NICE STORYLINE! WHY CHINA TODAY UP??

CHINA NO FOOD INFLATION FEARS???????????????

PLEASE DONT TALK RUBBISH.on LAST thursday,i saw sp500 closing only 1299,unable to reach 1346,the 78.6pc fib of range 1466-903,hence i know how can last friday reach 46points in ONE DAY?
i immediately downgraded my sp500 tgt on friday afternoon back to my oct 2010 tgt 1320,and at night usmkt drop!!!

IT IS TECHNICAL,OK?NOTHING TO DO WITH EGYPT

MOTIVE FOR this drop in february 2011 will take hsi to 22.5k-23k for hsi to achieve 1st pos div as it revisits again,Sp500 shall retest the breakout point 1220 again for 1st time,and sti 3050 for 1st time--MEANING?

MEANING that the 7th leg in sp500 will take us to 1380,hsi 25K

BUT sti will be the weakest DEPEND whether sti will break 3120.IF STI holds at 3120 when hsi go back to 22.5k-23k,THEN STI WONT BE THE WEAKEST IN 7TH 10WEEK upleg

why?sp500 will be in this band 1220-1380,hangseng also in this band 22.5k-25k
BUT sti break down to 3050 from the base of 3120
hangseng and sp500 will show no breakdown hence sti will be the weakest in sp500 7th 10week upleg.

30jan2011 LECTURE:RELATIONSHIP OF HSI,STI WITH SP500 in 10week uplegs

WEEKLY CHARTS:all dates shown below are week starting that day.


1st 9week mar9-may4 2009:

HSI UP 6000points,up 52pc!! sp500 up 38pc!! sti up 53pc!!

RESTING PERIOD 1:may 11 2009- jul6 2009:

SP500 down 9pc from top 956,lower than week starting may4 closing by 6.5pc
hsi down 9.5pc from top 19161 BUT UNCHANGED with week starting may4 closing.
sti also down 8.8pc from top BUT drop bounce off may4 week max at 2238 higher than may 4 week by 3pc!

2nd 10week jul13-sep14 2009:

hsi up 25%,sp500 up 22%,sti up 18%

RESTING PERIOD 2:week starting sept 21 to week starting oct 26

sp500 down 6.1% from top,down 4% from week starting sep14.
hsi down 6.5% from top stay up only 100pts from sep14 close 21623
sti down 3.1% from top UNCHANGED from sep14 close of 2647.



3rd 10week nov2 2009-jan4 2010:

sp500 up 10%,

hsi up 9.3% in first 3 weeks of this 3rd 10week upleg,rest 7 weeks in consolidation,hit resistance 3TIMES before following US down.

sti up 12.5%

RESTING PERIOD 3:jan 11 2011- week starting feb8 2010

sti drop 9.5%,hangseng drop ,sp500 drop 7%


4th 10week feb 15-apr19 2010:

sp500 up 13%,

sti up 14% revisit the same resistance as 3rd 10week,3k ,

hsi up 15%,revisited the area near resistance 23K,max 22388, for 4th time,DROP DOWN


RESTING PERIOD 4: WEEK STARTING APR26- WEEK STARTING AUG23 2010

part A)26/4/2010-week starting 28/6/2010

sp500 plunged 17.2%, to 1010

hangseng plunged 15.26% from week starting 26/4/2010 to week starting 24/5/2010 on euro excuse to revisit the 20K support for 2nd time since resting period 3(1st pos div),and revisit the support AGAIN for 3rd time on week starting 28/6/2010(2nd pos div)

sti drop 11.6% on euro excuse to revisit the support 2665 at the 3rd resting period
(1st pos div) to week starting 24/5/2010

part B)week starting 5/7/2010 to week starting 23/8/2010

sp500 down again to 1040 the same support as part (A) to create final drop,drop 8%from 1130 to 1040,2/8/2010 to week starting 23/8/2010

hsi drop 7.3pc from week starting 2/8/2010 to week starting 23/8/2010

sti WENT UP!! from week starting 24/5/2010 to week starting 2/8/2010,when sti retest 3k area for 3rd time and follow sp500 drop down because sp500 touch 1130


5th 10week aug30-nov1 2010:

hsi up 22%(new highs,24988)

sti up 11% as sti already up since 24/5/2010

sp500 up 18% to same highs 1227,2nd time visit(4th 10week visit 1217)

RESTING PERIOD 5:week starting 8/11/2010 to week starting 22/11/2010

sp500 drop 4% bounce around the 1180s NEAR to 1227(prepare for 1st week of 6th 10week upleg to break thru)

hsi drop 8.4% to retest the resistance turn support at 23K for 1st time after breakout UPWARDS

sti drop 6% to 3100s

6th 10week upleg: week starting 29/11/2010 to ??week starting 31/1/2011????

sp500 up 9.3pc?? to 1300??

hsi up ??

sti up??

CONCLUSION:

LOOK AT HOW INTERRELATED THE 3 CHARTS ARE,i see that this drop in february in SP500 will bring us to hangseng at same 22500-23K.thats why i firmly believe sp500 tgt for this resting period will be around 1220-1250,1240s i think

IF WE EXTRAPOLATE THE SAME TREND into the 2nd half:lets see the stunning coincidence!

1040 to 1320:sept2010 to dec2010(go thru the 200 WEEK MA at currently around 1200)
1320 to 1240:dec2010 to jan 2011(the 200wk value will increase when sp500 goes up,around 1220-1240 then)
1240 to 1520:jan 2011 to jul2011
1520 to 1410:jul2011 to aug2011
1410 to 1590: aug2011 to oct2011

HOW COINCIDENTAL THE MANNER THAT SP500 AFTER THE CORRECTION IN DEC2010 WILL BOUNCE OFF THE 200WEEK MA THE SAME MANNER AS IT BOUNCES OFF THE 200DAY MA
PLUS the final value of the 2nd half will be also the same 1590 the all time highs!!!
Posted by trading guru at 2:07 PM

lets use this general trend ABOVE to project sp500 10week theory!!

i was saying at 10week close=1380 will take how many 10weeks.hence by seeing that it takes 6 months for sp500 to go from 1240-1520,hence i know ONLY 1 10week will stop =1381 and the NEXT 10WEEK upleg will go > 1380.HOW MANY 10WEEKS in a 6-7mth period??
ONLY 2,BECAUSE YOU MUST ALLOW SPACE FOR retracement periods.

NOTE--LATE BY 1MONTH is nothing seriously wrong. whether its 1 or 2 mth drop to 1240,6or 7 mth rise to 1520,etc, i still can see the future!

I MADE THIS PREDICTION IN OCT 2010..LOOK AT HOW CLOSE IT IS!!!jan 2011 hit 1300



Sunday, October 10, 2010
1st half in the sp500

666 to 950:mar09 to jun09(went thru the 200day MA)
950 to 870:jun 09 to jul09(retest the 200day MA and bounce off the 200day MA)
870 to 1150:jul09 to jan10
1150 to 1040:jan10 to feb10
1040 to 1220:feb10 to apr2010

IF WE EXTRAPOLATE THE SAME TREND into the 2nd half:lets see the stunning coincidence!

1040 to 1320:sept2010 to dec2010(go thru the 200 WEEK MA at currently around 1200)
1320 to 1240:dec2010 to jan 2011(the 200wk value will increase when sp500 goes up,around 1220-1240 then)
1240 to 1520:jan 2011 to jul2011
1520 to 1410:jul2011 to aug2011
1410 to 1590: aug2011 to oct2011

HOW COINCIDENTAL THE MANNER THAT SP500 AFTER THE CORRECTION IN DEC2010 WILL BOUNCE OFF THE 200WEEK MA THE SAME MANNER AS IT BOUNCES OFF THE 200DAY MA
PLUS the final value of the 2nd half will be also the same 1590 the all time highs!!!
Posted by trading guru at 2:07 PM

wahahaha

I JUST DOWNGRADED my target for sp500 from 1380 to my OLD TARGET made oct 2010,1320 from 6th 10week upleg,ending next week IN THE AFTERNOON..

at night,US MARKET falls!!

i dont even know tonight us advance q4 gdp out.i dont even care whether it is less than estimate or more that estimate.

when i discover at 9th week of 6th 10week upleg on thursday only 1299,I calculated its impossible to hit 1380 next week AS 10th week up amount ALWAYS > 1st week up amount.

WITH this theory I told you all earlier 9th week is a very interesting week as it is a ??(unknown)week.

gains for NEXT WEEK,10th week in this 6th 10week upleg will be < 1st week up 2.9%

HENCE I CONCLUDE SP500 in next week will only RECOVER all of today's losses if sp500 drop 1.5-2% tonight.

IT BECOMES VERY CLEAR how NEXT WEEK,10th week,will play out.

FOMC MEETINGS IN HISTORY AND RELATIONSHIPS WITH STOCKMARKET 2006-2011

2006 meetings

JAN 31 meeting: DJIA ended flat,down 0.2%,great volatility during day,spinning top,lower tail 1pc,upper tail 0.7pc (spinning top)

Mar28 meeting: DJIA ended DOWN 1%,great volatility during day (D)

May 10 meeting: DJIA ended flat,up 0.03%,lower tail = upper tail length,DOJI (doji)

JUNE 29 meeting: DJIA ended UP.surge up 2% (U)

Aug 8 meeting: DJIA ended down.Great volatility.ended down 0.3% upper tail 100pts,lower tail 60points (spinning top)

sept 20 meeting: DJIA ended UP.ended up 0.6%(U)

oct 25meeting: DJIA ended Flat.ended up 0.05%,upper tail 90,lower tail 110 (doji)

Dec 12 meeting: DJIA ended doji,upper tail 70pts,lower tail 100pts,dwn 13pts (doji)

2007 MEETING

JAN 31 meeting: DJIA up 100points (U)

MAR 21 meeting: DJIA up 160points (U)

may 9 meeting: DJIA up 50points (U)

Jun 28 meeting: DJIA ended flat (DOJI)

AUG 7 meeting: DJIA ended up 40pts,lower tail 2pc (U)

sept 18 meeting: DJIA ended UP 339points (U)

oct 31 meeting: DJIA ended 150points up (U)

dec 11 meeting: DJIA ended down 200 points (D)

2007 manipulation:FOMC meetings mostly UP, BUY INTO any dips

2008 meetings

Jan 30 meeting: DJIA down 30points ,upper tail around 200points (spin top)

Mar 18 meeting: DJIA up 400points.up 3pc (U)

Apr 30 meeting: DJIA down 10points,upper tail 200points (same as jan 30)

Jun25 meeting: DJIA up4pts, upper tail 200points,lower tail 120points (roughly same as jan 30)

sept 16 meeting: DJIA up 100points, lower tail 300points (U)

oct 29meeting: DJIA down 75,upper tail 400points (same as jan 30)

dec 16 meeting: DJIA up 400points (U)


IN down year,fomc meeting HAVE 2 TRENDS: 1.up a lot OR 2. LONG UPPER TAIL


2009 meeting

jan 28meeting: up a lot up 200points (U)

mar 18 meeting: lower tail 3pc, up 100points (U)

apr 29 meeting: up 170points,2pc (U)

jun24 meeting: down a bit,flat,upper tail 2pc,

aug12 meeting: up 100points (U)

sept 23 meeting: down 70 upper tail 200points,2pc

nov4 meeting: DJIA up a bit,20point,UPPER TAIL 160points

dec 16 meeting:DJIA down a bit 10point,upper tail 110points

2009 manipulation: UPTREND year FOMC MEETINGS either 1.UP A LOT or 2. SELL INTO STRENGTH,long upper tail but close unchanged

2010 meetings:

jan27 meeting: DJIA up a bit,40point,lower tail 130points (buying)

mar16meeting: DJIA up a bit,lower tail 100point (buy on any dip)

apr28 meeting: DJIA UP A BIT,UP50POINTS, lower tail longer than upper tail (same as prev 2)

jun23 meeting: DJIA FLAT UPPER TAIL=LOWER TAIL

aug10 meeting: DJIA down 50,a bit, upper tail=lower tail

sept 21 meeting: DJIA flat, upper tail=lower tail

NOV3 MEETING: DJIA UP 30,flat spinning top

dec 14 meeting: DJIA up a bit 50pt, upper tail=lower tail

2010 DJIA IS VERY FLAT ON FOMC MEETINGS

2011 meetings:

jan 26meeting: upper tail=lower tail (indecisiveness)


IN CONCLUSION:


2006 DJIA UP 15PC,fomc meetings NO CLUE,random

2007 DJIA up 7pc,fomc meetings mostly UP

2008 DJIA down 40pc,fomc meetings down OR sell into strength

2009 DJIA up 20pc,fomc meetings either up a lot OR sell into strength,but close unchanged

2010 DJIA up 10pc,fomc meetings FLATTISH,indecisive

note--all figures are approximates,FOMC meetings can be a window to see how DJIA will perform for the year

to LOSERS who stumble on my blog

now equity markets higher than mar09,U say too high dont enter

AT MAR09,when i was calling for market final lows,U SAY will go lower,so dont enter..

THEN WHEN TO ENTER, get a vibrator and enter yourself

I AM A LIVING EXAMPLE who says stocks are cheap in mar09 AND stocks are STILL cheap in jan2011.when i say stocks are cheap BACK IN MAR09---HOW MANY ACTUALLY BELIEVE ME???

i use technicals to pinpoint stockmarket final lows in end mar09-I FUCK CARE FUCKAMENTALS..

(PLEASE NOTE--im saying stocks are still cheap in jan 2011-DOES NOT MEAN there will not be DROPS,retracements OR corrections)

THERE WILL BE drops AS STOCKMARKETS IS NEVER ONE WAY UP OR ONE WAY DOWN

SP500 7TH 10WEEK UPLEG CLOSING MINIMUM = 1381

WITH SP500 THIS 6TH 10WEEK >61.8PC TARGET,

I PROUDLY DECLARE NEXT 10WEEK UPLEG,7TH 10WEEK UPLEG target will be MINIMUM 1380.

= OR > 1380

because like i said in my previous posts:

1st 9week closing > 23.6pc

2nd 10week closing > 38.2pc

3rd 10week closing > 50pc

4th 10week closing =61.8pc

5th 10week closing = 61.8pc

this week 6th 10week closing SHOULD BE ONLY > 61.8pc

judging by this trend,i can PROUDLY say the NEXT 10weeks,7th 10 week UPLEG shall end = OR > 78.6pc,1381



WITH THIS POWERFUL TREND,I can roughly gauge when sp500 will hit 1580....

78.6pc has two scenarios,= AND >

THE "=" scenario may take TWO,THREE 10week uplegs, and once A 10WEEK sp500 UPLEG CLOSING > 78.6pc,U WILL KNOW the next 10week will be = OR > 100percent AT 1580

HENCE SP500 WILL TAKE 2,3,4,5 10WEEK UPLEGS to reach 1580 DEPENDING ON HOW MANY 10WEEK UPLEG CLOSING AT 1381.at most 5,AS I DONT BELIEVE SP500 WILL STALL AT 1381 FOR 4 10week UPLEGS...

WHAT A POWERFUL TOOL!!!!

with this tool,U ALSO CAN GAUGE WHERE THE DROP WILL END.as each 10week upleg minimum around 120points up maximum 260points up,HENCE 1381-120 = 1250s OR 1380-260 = 1130

HENCE I CAN EVEN SEE THAT after this 6th 10week will come a RETRACEMENT to around 1250s OR a CORRECTION to 1130(which is also a very important resistance turn support)

AS TO HOW LONG the timing for THE DROP,I DO NOT KNOW AS OF NOW

I NEVER RELY ON NEWS

Last night jobless claims up 50K,durable goods down,yet sp500 can park below 1300

looks like sp500 will realy end at >61,8pc only,wont hit 1380 at end of next week..

i left out the >61.8pc case,>1221 when i upgraded my target from 1320 to 1380 as i immediately jump to the =78.6pc case=1381 at closing of 10th week,week start 31st jan...

sp500 will end this 6th 10 week up leg,target X,

1221 < X <1380,most prob back to my target 1320,1330

there is a relationship between 1st week and 10th week of each 10week upleg

1.1st 9week upleg---

1st week sp500 up 10.6%,9th week up 6%

2. 2nd 10week upleg--

1st week sp500 up 7pc, 10th week up 2.5pc

3. 3rd 10week upleg

1st week sp500 up3.2pc,10th week up 2.6pc

4. 4th 10week upleg

1st week sp500 up 3.2pc,10th week up 2.1pc

5. 5th 10 week upleg

1st week sp500 up 3.8pc,10th week up 3.6pc

6.6th 10 week upleg

1st week up 2.9pc, 10th week???

if you notice 10th week up always < 1st week up

hence im projecting a 1.5pc-2pc gain for next week,10th week for sp500..target 1330
IF BY TODAY SP500 REMAINS NEAR 1300,flat,does not plunge.

MY OLD TARGET REMAINS INTACT 1320,1330!!!!!!!BACK TO MY OLD TARGET...my new target 1381 NOW IS INFEASIBLE...

WHY AM I ALWAYS RIGHT???

hahaha

i said the NATURE of the way shanghai will have when it hit 2680 will be a fast hit 2680,and fast rebound up to 2750 IN MY EARLIER POSTS..
u can check if you dont believe me..

last week,shanghai hit 2683 and rebound to 2750 in two days

TODAY,shanghai hit 2677 and rebound to 2750 in ONE DAY..

if tats not bullish,i dont know wats bullish.I ALWAYS TURN A DEAF EAR TO NEWS as i already can tell beforehand whats going to happen

will hangseng follow sp500 in last week,10th week?

1.1st 10week ending week,9th week-week starting may4th 2009-sp500 rallied 6percent,hangseng rallied 12percent BECAUSE SHANGHAI RALLIED 6PC

2.2nd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting sept 14 2009-hangseng up 2pc, sp500 up 2.5pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 1PC

3.3rd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting jan4 2010-sp up 2.6pc,hangseng up 2pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 2PC

4,4th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting apr19 2010-sp up 2pc,hangseng down 3pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 5PC

5.5th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting nov1 2010-sp up 3.6pc,hangseng up 7.7pc,SHANGHAI UP 5pc

6.6th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting 31jan 2011--??????

SO DID U SEE THE INTRICATE RELATIONSHIP THAT HANGSENG BALANCES WITH SP500 AND SHANGHAI COMPOSITE????????????

now its NOT very good news because 2feb 2011-8feb 2011,shanghai stock exchange will close for CNY..cant capture the china possible rally because 2680 is achieved.

take note of hangseng...
its bounce off 22500,the breakout point of a HUGE cup and handle,height 10K will bring us to a target of 32.5k-33k

why at 25k was a swift drop?because 25k is actually the target for the handle height breakout target of 2k added to the resistance of 23k

with my analysis of shanghai composite below,2011 is indeed the year of the DRAGON

please take note my fellow fans

1.shanghai composite is making new lows since nov2010, BUT CHINA FINANCIALS have NOT been making new lows since june2010..

VERY STRONG SIGNAL coming for a MEGA rally in shanghai composite MOST LIKELY after touching 2637-2655 region!!

100day sma-around 26

20week sma also around 26,HENCE VERY SAFE TO BUY SILVER AOUND 26,27

i WILL DEFINITELY average down to buy silver at these levels...today lowest 26.54 as of now,looks very tempting!!

BUT DUE TO VERY NEAR 10TH WEEK,i will rather wait for SENSITIVE 26

today highest gold at 1338 and silver lowest at 26.54, goldsilver ratio at 50.4!!

around 50 again,the goldsilver ratio drops back below 50 again!!at current 1328 for gold and 26.74 for silver,the ratio stands at 49.67!!

looking forward shanghai to stabilise around the 2647-2655 region

By Channel NewsAsia, Updated: 18/01/2011
Salaries of new Indonesian maids to rise to S$450

SINGAPORE : The salaries of new Indonesian foreign domestic workers will soon rise.

17 major employment agencies in Singapore will increase the monthly salaries for the workers from S$380 to S$450. The increment will take effect by this week, they said.

Over the years, the supply of Indonesian maids in Singapore has been dwindling.

Employment agencies indicated that the shortage was due largely to demand from places such as Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The agencies recently met maid suppliers from Indonesia to try and resolve the issue. One solution is to provide better salaries.

Desmond Chin, group director, Nation Employment, said: "All the suppliers, they’re facing difficult conditions to recruit. They are requesting us to match the maid’s salary to HK$650, to match the salary to T$800, which is right now impossible.

"Maybe, we can do it step by step. So right now, we have agreed with the Indonesian supplier for the salary of S$450."

Many employment agencies in Singapore support the move.

The higher salary will not benefit the agencies or the suppliers, as there will be no change in the foreign placement fee.

Employment agencies said the change can help remove unhealthy practices among the agencies.

Tay Khoon Beng, director, Best Home Employment Agency, said: "If we don’t have enough supply to applicants in the first place, eventually more and more agencies will poach one another’s maids and offer 10 and 20 dollars increase in salary and transfer these helpers among Singaporean employers and this is even a worse scenario for us."

Employment agencies said it is up to employers to increase the salary of existing maids. They are also wary of the possibility of a small group of maids who may try to terminate their contracts so that they can be re—employed with the better salary.

Some employers feel any salary increase has to be gradual.

Samuel Teo, an employer of an Indonesian maid, said: "The other thing is that I also feel that, of course, when you pay more, you’re expecting a very high quality from the maid. Will the maid be able to deliver?"

More than 70 per cent of maids working in Singapore are Indonesians and employment agencies said demand for these maids is still strong.

With the proposed salary increase for Indonesian maids, employment agencies also hope to increase the retention rate, giving them the incentive to work longer in Singapore.

— CNA/al

MY COMMENTS:

im so happy,elated SINGAPOREANS are punished for their haughtiness.

my last time friend roy goh's family employ 1 maid for a household of around 6 people living in a double storey house.when his maid left the house complaining to the embassy,he still does not know what went wrong.I told him its because of too much work and too little TAKEHOME pay.HE THEN CHALLENGED ME THIS MAID DONT DO,OTHER MAIDS WANT TO DO....

NOW LETS SEE HOW ARROGANT HE CAN REMAIN

what a GREAT start to 9th week for sp500!!!!!!!!

come on please hit 1320 in this week!!!

then my 1380 come true

when i make that prediction weeks ago about sp500target was at least 1380 by this 10th week,ending 1st week of february 2011,
it was on the assumption that this 6th 10week upleg target was = OR >1381,78.6pc of 1576-666 range.

if you see from my past posts that every sp500 10week upleg must be closing at = or > a fibonacci of 1576-666 range.
1st 10week closing >23.6pc
2nd 10 week closing>38.2pc
3rd 10 week closing >50pc
4th 10week closing =61.8pc
5th 10week closing =61.8pc
NOW 6TH 10 WEEK CLOSING surely its NO LONGER=61.8pc

when i make that prediction about sp500 target being 1381,i IMMEDIATELY jump to the 78.6pc,ignoring my past consideration of the possibility >61,8pc,meaning sp500 closing at 6th 10week will be BETWEEN 1220 and 1380.
that is why i upgraded my forecast from 1320 (THE >61.8PC CASE) AND JUMP TO THE HIGHER FIBONACCI(78.6pc) 1381

MY PAST TARGET 1320,1330 MAY BE RIGHT AFTERALL if sp500 closes this week starting today 24th jan 2011 FLAT as the last week,10th week is A FOREGONE CONCLUSION of up about 3-4pc.

SO THE NUMBERS ARE AT 10TH WEEK ENDING 1ST WEEK OF FEB2011 ARE 1320,1380,1400???
1320: >61.8PC
1380: =78.6PC
1400: >78.6PC

which of these THREE SCENARIOS?pick your choice right now.if u pick your choice at end of 9th week,this week,its no more fun AS YOU already know the answer..

9TH WEEK IS THE MOST FUN WEEK as its a ? week

shanghai composite is in consolidation mode...

AFTER the breakdown of the triangle built from aug09 to apr10,theheight of the triangle was 3478-2638=840points

hence the target for the end of the plunge from april to june 2010 was the breakdown value 3130-840=2300,hit on jun2010.

now the shanghai composite is trapped between 200wk sma and 300wk sma.

It took shanghai composite 4 months to reach the 200week sma,nov2010,and came down again.

Today its very near the 300week sma and i project a 4 month return to the 200wk sma AGAIN

conclusion:UPTREND BUT RANGE TRADING

im neither a optimist nor a pessimist BUT i hate RELIGIOUS LEADERS,media pumping fear by saying "these are uncertain,turbulent times-1.signalling the end of times,world"OR 2."rather put money in cash"

1.how do u define "uncertain"?
2. what is turbulent?u mean now without world wars,like ww1,ww2 the world is less peaceful because of blah blah like chemical warfare?
u mean china currency war and trade disputes,businessmen will never use china to produce goods?where else can they produce?usa?hongkong?singapore?so expensive

china will crumble because of currency war???

wahahaha

3.u put money in cash u sure die over long time.euro,african,tibet,mongolia,blah blah crisis,your cash will get eroded NO MATTER GOT CRISIS OR NOT

i dont know why big grown adults can take what the media tells you--oh crisis,oh unemployment,im not a mad bull or a mad bear BUT JUST rational

do you question yrself

1. why euro crisis excuse in the stockmarket sp500 end in august 2010?
2. why the drop just averted 20% rule of cyclical bear?
3. why sp500 can go up even with new developents of euro crisis after august 2010--

rather than shouting oh stockmarket rise is very fake BECAUSE fuckamentals dont support,BLAH BLAH BLAH.if you believe stockmarket is due to fuckamentals you are indeed a very sorry figure and a character.

1.CAN any1 explain why osim,a massage chair company can rise from 5c to 1.70 sgd from mar09 lows?technicals cant AND fundamentals cant too.
WHAT FUNDAMENTALS does a massage chair company have when the houses in asia are getting smaller?GOT ROOM TO PUT A BULKY MASSAGE CHAIR?

UTTER FUCKING CRAP.i also miss out on that stock.so what?i dont regret it.i just point out to say that stockmarket doesnt listen to fundamentals,THERE R SO MANY profitable companies in stckmkt still TRADING IN VERY LOW PE,blah blah.

SO WHAT?

why sp500 wont end cyclical bull now?

1.average bullmkt 43months(cnbc)

2.up to now,US markets JUST experience ONE correction in april to august 2010,a drop of 17percent in sp500,any drop now will just be temporary and a retracement.
stockmarkets DONT END cyclical bull after so soon,this new upleg only FIVE months old from august2010.

3.the gradient of cyclical bull tends to tally with that of the gradient of the cyclical bear.
Eg. from 2000-2003,sp500 drop 3years BUT took 4.5years to go to 2000 highs at 1580.
flatter gradient of cylical bear will TALLY with flatter gradient of next coming cyclical bull.

2007-2009mar09,the gradient of drop in the cyclical bear was much steeper than the gradient in 2000-2003,HENCE the gradient of cyclical bull is also much steeper than the gradient of cyclical bull in 2003-2007.

4.the timing---CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.why?because shorting induces panic as investors view loss more painful than gains.
2000-2003 bear mkt last 3 years
2003-2007 bull mkt last 4.5years

2007-2009 bear mkt last 1.5years(oct 2007-mar2009)
2009-201??? bullmkt last >1.5years
since mar09 was the sp500 final low,u add 1.5years u will get 2010 august WHICH IS WHY THE SP500 "NEGLECTED" the EURO CRISIS BECAUSE CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.

IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW THE SAME ADDING 1.5YEARS TO THE CYCLICAL BEAR,THIS cyclical bull from 2009-201?? MAY probably end in 2012march...

IF YOU LOOK AT THE HIDDEN SUBTLE HINTS OF THE MARKET,THE TIMING OF THE EURO CRISIS END,the surge,the ratios,the gradients,

YOU WILL KNOW ANY DROP IS JUST A RETRACEMENT,and not the end.

i dont know why average person does not have the TIME or INTEREST to do such research and loves to shoot off about economy not good,a lot of worries about unemployment,euro crisis,uncertain times,subprime "worst crisis since depression", student debt crisis,china property bubble,china inflation worries,trade wars,currency manipulation---

IF YOU ARE SO SCARED,PLEASE DONT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET...u want everything nice story for you to hear then you enter??
u mean stockmarket is being pushed up by retail players???stockmarket need to wait for laymen to have jobs,bonus,got savings to push up the market.LAYMEN no jobs,STOCKMARKET CANT GO UP??

IF YOU THINK LIKE THAT,U R INDEED A FUCKING MORON.i advise my relative to buy in feb09,BUT IN THE END,he thinks he outsmart me by saying he is willing to forego a percentage for safety.WHAT SAFETY??

in the end,sti,hangseng WENT UP near 100PERCENT IN FOUR-FIVE MONTHS...FOREGO 100%??
100percent too little,can afford to forego???

I SINCERELY ADVISE PEOPLE WITH NO GUTS TO STAY OUT OF STOCKMARKET AND PLEASE DONT COOK UP THIS N THAT TO EXPLAIN FOR YOUR OWN FAILURES.which times is NOT uncertain?you know when you are going to die?

it has been proven TIME AND AGAIN that stockmarket DOES NOT need to wait for people to have jobs,then got money to invest.i dont know why some people can leave such STUPID and IGNORANT comments like those i see in cnbc forum and i pasted below.

Stocks Are 'Underpriced': Value Investor


COMMENTS

POMO_FED_Mole | Jan 21, 2011 03:30 PM ET

With all do respect Marvin ....

This may be the riskiest time ever to go long in the Market.

I hate to bring it up ... But, weren't you the guy that self-admitedly lost an "enormous" amount of money in 2008? This might be a similar point in time in the Market - so the recommendation needs a caution: If you didn't recognize the 2008 collapse, you might be missing the potential for a similar event now. This might not be the time to go long.

Again - my apologies for being so direct - but, a lot of people's hard eqarned money might be at stake.

I love you Marvin - but, it needed to be said.
Report Abuse
Babylon1974 | Jan 21, 2011 03:32 PM ET

"Underpriced"???? He meant over priced right? Oh no, he's just another pseudo expert pumping and dumping. Just like all the people who come on CNBC.

http://gomestic.com/personal-finance/money-money-everywhere-literally/

http://bizcovering.com/investing/stock-market-crash-2-0/
Report Abuse
beachbum40 | Jan 21, 2011 03:36 PM ET

What a complete crock. Why do they put these people on TV? Aside from the obvious cheerleading, the guy has got to be drunk...or on something. Two years ago it was cheap - NOT now. Not too many people are watching anyway.
Report Abuse
beachbum40 | Jan 21, 2011 03:38 PM ET

The analysts' concensus on S&P EPS are wrong - as always.
Report Abuse
BillSFM | Jan 21, 2011 03:40 PM ET

My house for sale is underpriced too - so many potential buyers have told me so, yet haven't made an offer...
Report Abuse
Its420 | Jan 21, 2011 03:42 PM ET

The equity market is "significantly underpriced," legendary value investor Marvin Schwartz, managing director and senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC Friday.

Marvin Schwartz said this consitently over the last 10 years. Check the 10 year number on the S&P? Wierd, no? Another rag man.
Report Abuse
BillSFM | Jan 21, 2011 03:53 PM ET

May the Schwartz be with you, if you take his advice...
Report Abuse
cynic1 | Jan 21, 2011 03:56 PM ET

It warms my cackles to know that corporate profits within the S&P are humming along as the rest of the USA rots.
Report Abuse
itradelikeapro | Jan 21, 2011 04:24 PM ET

That's crazy! It's not about the market, it's about some individual performers. Even in the down market, some peformers are always there and they win! The point is, how we balance our portfolio. I personally keep some in cash, some in bonds, some in long term Stocks/Stocks Mutual Funds, and a good amount in Stock Trading (buy low, sell high).

You may visit my website and see picks at http://itradelikeapro.com

Report Abuse
tampashort | Jan 21, 2011 04:27 PM ET

Quick!! Somebody call 911, this guy has ingested too many magic mushrooms!!


ABOVE TAKEN FROM CNBC.

when i see SO MANY americans (as one of them says no1 offer to buy an underpriced house.cant be in asia as asian property hardly has UNDERPRICED) so disillusioned with the stock market as it entered SECULAR bear since 2000 im very happy
AS warren buffett always says be greedy when others are fearful....

im not saying that there wont be a cyclical bear coming BUT be prepared for the BREAKOUT into a secular bull in 2012-2017..

One comment even says 2years ago it was underpriced.HELLO?ive been thru that.HOW MANY PEOPLE DARE BUY DURING THAT TIME?not my relatives.not my friends.when dow was at 6500,they say dow will drop to 4000,ITS JUST BASELESS guess to QUENCH their FEARS.
i dare buy during that time and its not due to fuckamentals.

WHEN ASIA NEVER GO MUCH LOWER IN MAR09 N USA went only 10pc lower,I KNOW THAT WAS THE FINAL bottom.

WHY FUCKAMENTAL ABOUT PE RATIO, I DONT GIVE A FUCKING DAM?
during oct08,PE should be same as MAR 09 AS sti,hsi at same values...BUT YOU JUST THINK IF THE STOCK MARKET WERE TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE,QUADRUPLE,SEXTUPLE bottoms, WILL PE COUNT????
YOU WILL BE JUST WASTING SO MUCH TIME WAITING.WHY NOT WAIT FOR TECHINCALS TO SHOW YOU THE LIGHT??

i always call fundamentals FUCKAMENTALS
techincals are NEVER 100pc rite,BUT at leastit shows you more precise timing.

look at property...teaches us a lesson
dont LOSE BIG for sake of earning small

quick rush buy because of cheap interest
LETS COUNT,imagine you buy at 1pc interest p.a.HOW MANY years can this rock bottom phenomenon continue?at most 3 years---HOW MUCH CAN YOU SAVE?difference from normal of about 4pc--

AT MOST 10PC saved in 3 years at 1pc p.a.

but how much has the asian property price gone up since crisis started?i remember about 50pc from lows--

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Hong-Kong-Real-Estate-History-in-a-chart1.png

WORTH IT???10pc gain for 50pc MORE EXPENSIVE???

EVEN IN WORST SCENARIO,50pc more expensive divided by 3pc difference each year,16years of remaining at 1pc p.a.,u think feasible that interest rates will remain at 1pc p.a.for 16years??

so many asian countries already started tightening...
THAT IS WHY I FIRMLY BELIEVE property,property counters will UNDERPERFORM general stock mkt EVEN WHEN ECONOMY RECOVERS and into EXPANSION STAGE...

property "investors" or i say fools who rush in at 1pc interest are really nothing more than housewives bargaining at wet market for a discount WHEN THEY DONT KNOW that the fish they buy are already starting to become bad(starting to become NOT VALUE FOR MONEY)and the hawker decides to give them a discount to offload.

I WENT HK IN MARCH 2010 AND DECIDED AGAINST TO BUY HK PROPERTY.true it went up after that BUT how much further can it go up?to nevernever land?
1.property tightening
2.rates up(affect majority as most borrow loans to buy)
3.when USA recover,it will draw some of the expats AND EVEN LOCALS back to US to work,and will reduce demand for rents and purchases.some expats,LOCALS may then sell the property to bring back to USA

I SEE ASIAN PROPERTY AS THE LAST PLACE TO INVEST RIGHT NOW.shanghai property price how can be near singapore price when their people salary is only a third or lesser than singaporeans?

THOSE WHO BELIEVE ECONOMY EXPANSION,PROPERTY PRICE SOAR ARE PLAIN IDIOTS.property isnt like stock market where you can play games.u must place a deposit,if many cant afford to place a deposit,HOW TO CONTINUE THE PASS THE TORCH GAME?
stockmarket you can continue playing the pass the torch game within the CONTRA PERIOD as long as you have HUGE ASSETS to push as in stockmarket its just TRADING LIMIT and it doesnt require DEPOSIT..

PROPERTY PRICE IN ASIA REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF US PROBLEMS,LOW INTEREST RATE.USA RECOVERY BODES CALAMITY FOR ASIAN PROPERTY!!!

look at shanghai today!!!!

SHORTIST SQUEEZE...LOOK AT THE PANIC IN SHORTISTS TODAY!!!

I SAW THRU,ALWAYS AT LAST HOUR OF DAY,LAST DAY OF WEEK, LAST DAY OF MONTH,LAST DAY OF QUARTER,GOT "STRANGE" THINGS TO REVEAL REAL PURPOSE.

THIS WEEK,SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FAKE BREAKDOWN OF BASE IN WEEKLY CHARTS,ONLY TO SEE A LAST DAY OF WEEK surge ,IF CAN REVERSE UP TO 2772 BY 3PM TODAY,ILL GO MAD
y?
BEAUTIFUL DOJI WITH LOWER TAIL OF 100POINTS,4PC!!

I LOVE MEDIA FEARS OF CHINA:LOOK AT CNBC SAY--"CHINA PROPERTY BUBBLE,CURRENCY MANIPULATION,TRADE DISPUTES"MORE BAD NEWS I LOVE IT

YESTERDAY I WENT SUNTEC...wah so many idiots carry fundsupermart bags walking in suntec..why AT MAR09,FUNDSUPERMART dont hold conference to investors??

THATS BECOZ MAJORITY OF POPULATION ARE FUCKING IDIOTS---ALWAYS RUSH IN AFTER ECONOMY STABILIZE,GOOD NEWS ABUNDANT...thats why there is a saying majority investors LOSE in stockmarket

half day volume of shanghai comp is already 70pc of normal day volume!!!OBSCENE SHORTIST SQUEEZE

NOTE:REALLY HIT MY 2660S--today lowest was 2667!!!!

SEE MY NEXT PREDICTION:

TIMING IS ALSO VERY VERY VERY "TIMELY"---SHANGHAI ALWAYS CONSOLIDATE IN BASES IN ROUND NUMBER MONTHS,THIS IS REPEATED 3X already.this base is formed week starting nov15,hence if today can close 2772,a beautiful doji will follow by a surge up next week= MORNING STAR pattern!!!just nice coincide with week after ROUND NUMBER CONSOLIDATION BASE COMES A WEEK OF BiG SURGE in the past 3 bases!!!!next week should close above 2894 IF this week,today 3pm can close at 2772

WHAT THE FUCKING FISH?!!

if you think im good...please do recommend your frens,colleagues,family,relatives to my blog..
become my followers OR leave comments and questions for me
much appreciated......

AT 4am singapore time...dow,sp500 UP,MOST AGRICULTURE REVERSE UP,SILVER BOUNCE UP FROM 27.38 LOWEST TO 27.70 now.

Average down silver at 27.48...

TO foreigners who 1st time visit my blog...if you are asian,you will notice hangseng index...

on Monday,17jan2011,when shanghai plunge 3pc,WHY did hsi drop 0.5% ONLY?

THEN ON Thursday,shanghai plunge another 3pc,WHY did hangseng(hsi) drop 2pc?

I NEVER LEAVE THINGS TO LUCK...

remember i said hangseng to be stuck in 24k-24.4K range...If shanghai plunge a total of 6pc,and IF hangseng follows,hangseng will drop all the way to 23K,Break MY TARGET 24K...

EVEN HANGSENG HAS TO RESPECT MY CALL!!!!

hahahahaha SO OBEDIENT....so KELONG(fake)

NOTE:im not saying shanghai will not drop, but plunge of 3+pc should be the LAST today.

STRANGE THINGS "HAPPEN" AT HANGSENG 24K,

so COINCIDENT hangseng touch my support 24K,(1)GOLDSILVER RATIO has to hit my beloved 50,AND reverse DOWN
(2) dow,sp500 has to reverse losses and go up
(3)shanghai has to plunge 3pc
(4)commodity reverse losses

HOW CAN THINGS BE SO COINCIDENTAL??????????????????????????????????

by looking at the so clear and transparent manipulation pattern,HSI should be going up from here.HONGKONG manipulator already knows on MONDAY 17jan2011 beforehand that shanghai going to plunge ANOTHER 3pc very soon,thats why they withhold hangseng NOT to drop too much ON MONDAY

THIS PATTERN OF SHANGHAI UP2PC,DOWN3PC IVE SEEN SO MANY TIMES, in equity markets in my SEVEN years trading...this is called "SHAKING OFF IDIOTS" BASE FORMATION PATTERN

Tonite i have a strange feeling that us stckmkt will reverse all losses and go up TOGETHER with commodities...

AS GOLD SILVER RATIO HITS G-SPOT 50!!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD TODAY HIGHEST 1370 SILVER LOWEST IS 27.38
WHAT DO YOU GET??
EXACTLY 50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THAT IS WHY STOCKMKT AND SILVER BOTH REBOUNDING UP FROM LOWS NOW!!!!!!!

I BOUGHT SOME SILVER AT 27.60 not to miss the boat!!!!!!!

NOTE:as us stckmkt approaching 10th week,THE ONLY FEAR is that gold silver ratio stays near 50 and "coincides" with stckmkt drop,rises to 60--thats MAX..
BUT AT 50,SILVER SURE TO BOUNCE UP,even if temporary!!!!

market trivia time!
lets see some hilarious news...

Forex - Dollar up vs. most rivals as euro jitters hit sentiment2011-01-11 08:46:41 GMT (Forex Pros)


BUT

The US dollar is under pressure this morning as risk appetite and liquidity improved with investors returning to markets after the holidays. The euro climbed to a three-week peak against the dollar despite upbeat U.S. data. The USD perked up after data showed U.S. manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December and construction spending hit a five-month high in November. Additionally, November U.S. Factory Orders beat forecasts rising 0.7%.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/97425/20110105/daily-forex-summary-on-usd-euro-gbp-jpy-aud-cad-and-nzd.htm


CONCLUSION:??

WHAT IS THE USD?
IS IT A SAFE HAVEN CURRENCY OR NOT???
LISTEN TO BLOODY NEWS U SURE DIE WITHOUT KNOWING WHY

LOOKS LIKE SHANGHAI CANT END THIS WEEK AT 2772...TOMORROW SHALL TEST 2655

watch out for possible 2772 closing for shanghai this friday I HOPE,to form a doji,which signify MASSIVE importance--difference between a 2mth OR a 3mth consolidation base starting week of nov15 2010.

IF TODAY SHANGHAI CLOSE POSITIVE,HOPES OF 2772 by friday 3pm ARE VERY HIGH

as said, china may drop further in these coming days..how true,like dec28 hit 2730 but dec29 went to lowest 2720..
hence shanghai may drop another 10+points from 2680 to around 2660s
lets see
if today,we get a reversal,and close positive at3pm,then up from here

WAHAHAHA aint i right???
wednesday,19jan 2011,shanghai went up 1.87pc!!
reclaim the 2750 very fast IN TWO DAYS,just as i said FAST DOWN 2680,FAST UP to 2750

I HOPE SHANGHAI BY THIS FRIDAY,21JAN 2011 CAN PARK BETWEEN 2820-2870...LOOK ITS HOPE AND NOT PREDICTION..

ONLY IF this week can go there,then I CAN SAFELY SAY next week will be week shanghai breaks out of 2894
IF NOT,shanghai comp may test 2680 MANY TIMES

京挺港 小QFII有望快推
1月 18日 星期二 06:00 更新

【經濟日報專訊】醞釀已久讓本港募集人民幣回流內地證券市場的「小QFII」機制，有望短期內開通。中國證監會(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)主席尚福林昨表明，將推動境外募集人民幣基金進行境內證券投資試點，作為支持本港鞏固和提升國際金融中心地位的措施之一。


尚福林提及推動境外募集人民幣基金進行境內證券投資試點，正是俗稱的「小QFII」，但他未有披露詳情和時間表。

他昨在「亞洲金融論壇」上表示，將以實際行動支持本港鞏固和提升國際金融中心地位，包括支持中國企業境外上市以港為境外上市首選，中證監更將為內地中小企包括民營企業境外上市提供便利。此外，推動內地交易所完善清算安排，港股組合以ETF（交易所買賣基金）形式到內地上市。

尚福林H股 在港發人債

對於推動本港人民幣市場，尚福林稱還將支持H股公司以先行先試方式，在港發行人債，亦支持兩地期貨發展。

本港尋求開通境外人民幣回流內地證券市場的渠道，惹來上海的異議（詳見另文——「滬唱反調 不應讓資金回流」），但尚福林強調：「兩地資本市場可相互促進，共同發展。」

對於「小QFII」開通，同場全國人大(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)常委會原副委員長成思危亦稱，政策肯定朝這方面走，人民幣惟有完全自由兌換，才可成為儲備貨幣，內地開放有必要以香港作為試點。

路透社昨引述兩名知情人士透露，「小QFII」有望很快便推出。為穩妥起見，計劃先要求募集資金中不少於80%須投資於債券，包括投資證交所掛牌和銀行間債市。

而財經事務及庫務局(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)局長陳家強則指出，有關「小QFII」研究工作一直進行中，他亦期望有關機制可盡早落實，相信待準備工作完成後就會公布。

構思的「小QFII」，先由內地證券和基金機構在港分公司，將在港募集人民幣投資內地證券市場，故亦被視為對中資金融機構境外發展的支持。據悉，中資基金公司中，南方基金、大成基金、易方達基金、嘉實基金及博時基金均已遞交申請，券商則以海通證券、國泰君安(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)、中信證券等，盛傳若獲放行，即可獲首批「小QFII」資格。

券商估規模不大 屬過渡產品

交銀國際首席執行官譚岳衡昨接受本報查詢時稱，未接獲「小QFII」將開通消息。他理解，內地在防範熱錢湧入下，即使開通「小QFII」，數額都僅數十億元。但另有中資券商相信，首批可望於上半年獲批。

中銀國際執行副總裁謝湧海指出，中國面對流動性過大問題，資金「出去從寬，回流從嚴」屬可以理解。他認為，「小QFII」只會是人民幣離岸市場發展過程中的過渡性產品，規模亦不會變得愈來愈大。

更多經濟日報網站內容, 請登入hket.com

IF U BELIEVE IS THIS NEWS PUSH HK UP TODAY U MUST EITHER TREAT TECHNICALS AS NOT IMPT OR AN IDIOT
go calculate 78.6pc of hsi,sti,sp500 of entire subprime range and TELL ME WHICH HAS MOST ROOM TO GO UP

look at how fake the stockmkt is!!
sti becoz closest to next resistance than hsi,sp500 at 3380,78.6 fibo,is now very flat
sti now fry pennies more than sp500 or hsi. more than half in even top 20 volumesti are pennies,REINFORCING MY 10WEEK SP500 CYCLE IS DAM CORRECT!!
THIS IS START OF 8TH WEEK
SHANGHAI NOW 2713!! MAGIC 2680s!!

shanghai may return to 2680s in the next two days JUST LIKE THE dec29,30,2 days after shanghai hit bottom at dec28 went lower than dec28 lowest BUT close up

as im saying right now---
10.50am
today tuesday shanghai hit 2683 and rebound up--lets see whether it will go below 2683 later to 2681 or even 2655?????
those r 2 most sensitive points!
how accurate i am that it will hit today!
PREPARING FOR THE BIG STAGE TOMORROW!!

but hongkongers saw thru the gimmick---

yesterday shanghai plunge 3pc,hsi down only 0.5%
today as of 11am,shanghai still down a bit BUT AFTER REBOUND AT 2683,,hsi up SAME amount AS YESTERDAY DROP,ERASE ALL OF YESTERDAY DROP

SO FUNNY INDEED!!

touching 1580 for sp500 will not start a secular bull BUT breaking it does start a secular bull market

REASONS FOR cyclical BULL,SECULAR BULL IN 2015-2016:
1. from this cyclical bullmarket start mar09,usmkt still has experienced ONE CORRECTION--technically defined as 10pc-<20PC drop from the highs==WHICH IS THE euro CRISIS

sp500 dropped 17pc from highs
dow dropped 14.6pc from highs
nasdaq dropped 18.7pc from highs

hence after 1580 hit,there may come another cyclical bear market in a secular bear market.

2.sp500 drag from 1975 to 1982 to park below resistance,hence im worried that sp500 may return to 1580 but fall back and wait till 2016 to breakout!!

REASONS FOR SECULAR BULL START THIS YEAR 2011 or 2012

1.IF sp500 close above 1380 (weekly candlestick) by end of the SIXTH 10th week,then high chance THE VERY NEXT 10weeks may test 1580
IF by next 10th weeks,sp500 does touch 1580,then the number of months from mar 09 to then,still in 2011,will still be lesser than the average bull market which last 43months---meaning a lot of time to go up---
which translate to even MORE 10week uplegs!!!

ANOTHER CORRECT PREDICTION by me!
i said if china doesnt park below 2894 by last week and if last friday drop,then shanghai have a chance of return to 2680 IN A SWIFT manner!

1.i even suspect friday if drop,then will trigger a plunge to 2680
2.how am i to know china will hike reserve ratio requirement over weekend?as i made that prediction BEFORE weekend.

THE POSITION OF THE INDICES WILL "SHAPE" THE NATURE OF THE NEWS...
BAD NEWS CAN MEAN GOOD
GOOD NEWS CAN MEAN PLUNGE
BAD NEWS CAN MEAN WORSE NEWS
GOOD NEWS CAN BE SUPER GOOD NEWS

LET ME TEACH YOU ALL WHY NEWS CANT BE BELIEVED
EG.
1)INTEREST RATE RISES,stockmkt goes up---news will say "OPTIMISM ABOUT ECONOMY"
interest RATE RISES,stockmarket plunges---news say "CREDIT TIGHTENING FEARS SPOOK INVESTORS"

2)ECONOMIC DATA GOOD,stckmkt plunges---news will say"strong economy erase hopes of further bailout"
OR news will say" good economic data "FACTORED IN"

3)external events--EG.abu dhabi govt debt problem,PORTUGAL bond downgrade by moodys--stckmkt goes up,or recover most of losses,--news will say"rumours of "white knight"
OR "DESPITE"

very fake!!
so coincidental HU JINTAO VISIT TO USA IS ON WED!!!
look at dec 27,28 2010

dec 27 2010:
body of down candle:62points

dec28 2010: bottom at 2730,(altho went lower on dec29,30 BUT both 29,30 close up)

TOTAL DROP 100POINTS IN TWO DAYS

today,jan17 2011:
body of candle down:66points!!!

tomorrow,jan18 2011,
should bottom tomorrow at 2680

drop 100points in two days from 2790 to 2680!!!SAME!!!!

PLUNGE "QUICKLY" TO END JUST IN TIME FOR HU VISIT TO USA on wed,JAN 19 2011!!!!

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2680 IS COMING!!!!
I EVEN SAID THAT( before friday plunge)IF LAST WEEK FRIDAY PLUNGE,HIGH CHANCE GOING TEST 2680!!
golden chance ahoy

i "love" insurance!!
i will make sure i will sign a death insurance of 20m for my kids when i am 70years old and above.
i will use the profits earned during the TWO bullmarkets in 40 years from now to "GAMBLE" with insurance companies.

WHO WANTS TO INSURE 10M OF DEATH INSURABCE WHEN IM 30YEARS OLD.got 2 secular bull markets in front of me?
i earn shiok 1st,then use massive profits to gamble and make insurance companies LOSE TILL FACE GREEN AND WHITE
hahahahaha

OOO I LOVE TO GAMBLE WHEN MY ODDS OF WINNING ARE GREATER!!
THAT ALWAYS APPLY TO MY STOCKMKT PHILOSOPHY!!

im saying this today..take note of date

SP500 WHETHER WILL HIT 1580 WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SP500 CAN CLOSE ABOVE 1381 ON THE 10TH WEEK

im not the operator BUT the trend is very clear...
IF FEB 1ST WEEK END sp500 can close above 1381,

I WILL GO MAD!!!!

Attention MY dear FANS!!

sp500 10week trend is back again.this week ending 14jan2011 is the 7th week.JUST 90POINTS,7pc TO GO IN THREE WEEKS!!!
next week 8th week,9th week will be up weeks but will be stalling around 1300-1346 region,waiting for the 10th week to surge to 1380-1400

DO I NEED NEWS TO TELL ME?i always fuck care news.when i sms to my fren this aft,how in the world do i know jp morgan results very good at night?i just know usmkt will go up DUE TO THE FACT that hangseng went UP despite SHANGHAI going down in asia afternoon.i told him "usmkt sure up to something at night".THESE ARE MY EXACT WORDS!

another golden chance is ahoy!!based on today gold px 1360 and silver 28.40, buy silver when goldsilver ratio HIT 50.

VERY IMPORTANT:BUT the ONLY FLAW is that IF GOLD SILVER RATIO hits 50 same time with sp500 in 10th week,then its a ONE WAY DOWN for silver,dragging the goldsilver ratio to 60.

at the END OF 10TH WEEK,week ending 1st week of feb 2011, will come a retracement OR correction,BUT it definitely wont be the end of the CYCLICAL BULL IN A SECULAR BEAR

I SINCERELY HOPE TONIGHTSP500 CLOSE VERY NEAR 1300!!!!

LOOK AT SUGAR!!!!!!
TUMBLE 2PC WHEN ALL OTHERS SURGE!!!!!!!!
COFFEE UP2.5PC
CORN UP 4.3PC
WHEAT UP 2PC
SOYBEAN UP 4.5PC
OAT UP3.4PC
WOOL UP 2.6PC
COPPER UP 1.5PC
PALLADIUM UP 4PC
PLATINUM UP2PC
NICKEL UP 4PC
HOGS UP2PC
CATTLE UP2PC

HUAT TILL I CANT RECOGNIZE MY HOUSE

ANOTHER TIP:shanghai composite next week will break out of 2894 BASE DUE TO EXCUSE OF CHINA PRESIDENT HU JINTAO VISIT TO USA
HOW I KNOW?
LOOK AT PATTERN OF BASES IN SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TO SEE HOW WELL MANIPULATED IS STOCKMKT

IF BY THIS FRIDAY SHANGHAI CLOSES BEYONG 2870,THEN IM 90PC CONFIDENT THAT NEXT WEEK STARTING 17JAN 2011 SHANGHAI WILL GO BEYOND 2894 AND TEST 2970!!!!!!

BUT if shanghai plunges on friday,then it may head to 2680 and base will take 3mths

SHARESWIZARD SAYS SO!!!!!!!!
U LIKE MY BLOG, PLEASE RECO TO FRENDS AND BECOME MY FOLLOWERS.THANKS

Continued on FURTHER PROOF heading towards 1380!!!

NEW EVIDENCE

upleg1:last week,9th week, candlestickbody open up from 880 to 930
(1576-666) 23.6pc 880 AND (1466-903)0pc at 903

upleg2:last week,10th week,candlestick body up from lowest value in 10th week-1035-1074
(1576-666) 38.2pc 1013 AND (1466-903) 23.6pc at 1036

upleg3:last week,10th week,candlestick body open up from 1117 to 1145
(1576--666) 50pc 1121 AND (1466-903)38.2pc at 1118

upleg4 last week,10th week, candlestick bodyopen from 1184 to 1218
(1576-666) 61.8pc 1228 AND (1466-903) 50pc at 1185

upleg5 last week,10th week, candlestick body open from 1185 to 1228
(1576-666)61.8pc, 1228 AND (1466-903)50pc at 1185

upleg6 NOW 6th week,10th week?,candlestick body MOST PROBABLY open at 1346!! and highs at 1400
WHY 1346?
(1576--666) 78.6pc,1381 AND (1466-903)78.6pc at 1346

at6th week, we past the (1466-903)61.8pc at 1251,hence 10th week of 6th upleg candlestick body WILL open at 1346,as shown by prev 5 10wk upleg, that 10th week candlestick body opening values always at fibs of range(1466-903)and the max or closing values of 10th week ALWAYS higher OR equal to the fibs of range(1576-666){EXCEPT 1ST UPLEG where starting value is 23.6pc of (1576--666)}




CONCLUSION:

HENCE LAST WEEK,10th week of 6th upleg will be starting from 1346 and closing above OR EQUAL to 1381

hi ive received sms from frens tasking me how to read

1576-666 1467-903

1ST (EXCEPTION)9WK UPLEG >23.6pc >0pc
MAX 930 880 903

WEEK STARTING MAR9 2009 TO WEEK STARTING MAY4 2009

(>23.6pc)belongs to the fib of 1576-666
(>0pc) belongs to the fib of 1467-903
ANYTHING BELOW THAT COLUMN VERTICALLY ARE ALL UNDER THAT RESPECTIVE COMLUMN

930 IS THE MAX VALUE OF THE UPLEG 1
880 IS THE 23.6PC OF 1576-903
903 IS THE 0PC OF 1467-903

APPLY THIS WAY OF READING TO ALL the uplegs

why are these two ranges1. 1576-666 and 1467-903 very important?

becoz they are huge in values,1576-666 is more important as it is larger in absolute value AND ENTIRE RANGE

1467-903 is 2nd important becoz it is the HUGE candle body of the plunge in 2008

LETS SUMMARISE

1576-666 1467-903

1ST (EXCEPTION)9WK UPLEG >23.6pc >0pc
MAX 930 880 903

WEEK STARTING MAR9 2009 TO WEEK STARTING MAY4 2009

2ND 10WEEK UPLEG >38.2PC >23.6PC
MAX 1074 1013 1036

WEEK STARTING JUL13 2009 TO WEEK STARTING SEPT14 2009

3RD 10WEEK UPLEG >50PC >38.2PC
MAX 1145 1121 1118

WEEK STARTING NOV2 2009 TO WEEK STARTING JAN4 2010

4TH 10 WEEK UPLEG =61.8PC >50PC
MAX at 1220 1228 1185

WEEK STARTING FEB15 2010 TO WEEK STARTING APR19 2010

5TH 10WEEK UPLEG =61.8PC >50PC
MAX AT 1228 1228 1185

WEEK STARTING AUG30 2010 TO WEEK STARTING NOV1 2010

6TH 10WEEK UPLEG ALREADY >61.8PC >61.8PC
MAX 1380-1400?? (>78.6pc?????) 1251

WEEK STARTING NOV 29 2010 TO WEEK STARTING (31JAN 2011???)

note:() MEANS predictions NOT already achieved

OH MY GOD EVEN IF YOU CHANGE THE DISTANCE INSTEAD OF 2007-2009PLUNGE OF 1576-666, AND CHANGE IT TO 1467(OPENING VALUE OF SP500 AT 2008) AND CLOSE AT 903(THE CLOSING VALUE OF 2008)
it produces MORE shocking revelations!!


0pc:903
23.6pc:1036
38.2pc:1118
50pc:1185
61.8pc:1251
78.6pc:1346
100:1467

1st upleg of 10weeks mar9 2009- may4 2009 went beyond 903,but 1st resting period, may11-jul6 2009 dip down below 903--903 can also be seen as first resistance(0pc)

went up 10 weeks,jul13 2009 -sept14 2009 went beyond 1036(23.6pc)

THEN sept21-oct26 2009 resting period also ended with a close AT 1036!!

nov2 2009- jan4 2010 week also went beyond the 1118(38.2pc) to 1145

jan11- feb8 2010 week drop down,lowest point 1044,NEAR 23.6pc,1036!!

feb 15-apr19 2010 week also went beyond the 50pc of this RANGE(1467-903),1185 BUT DIDNOT go beyond the 61.8pc of the other RANGE(1576-666) and the 61.8pc of this range(1467-903)--(50pc)
CONCLUSION:because of two ranges MAJOR resistance 61.8pc fib COINCIDE with 1228-1250 space,HENCE THE FUCKING EURO crisis EXCUSE BEST TO SHORT

NEXT comes the EURO CRISIS,last 19weeks.STRANGELY the 38.2pc of this RANGE(1467-903) acts as the resistance for the 2 smaller resistances in the correction:eg,(1)WEEK STARTING JUNE21 2010 OPEN 1122 AND DROP DOWN.(2)WEEK STARTING AUG 9 2010 open 1122 and drop down

START OF SECOND HALF:

5th 10weeks upleg from aug30 2010 week ALSO STARTED FROM lowest 1040,which is very near to 1036,the 23.6pc fib of THIS range(1467-903)

STRANGELY the drop from week starting NOV8 2010 to week starting nov 22 2010 also is well supported by the 1185(50pc)of this range(1467-903)





CONCLUSION BY ZACK:
THIS RANGE (1467-903) IS NOT AS "COINCIDENTAL" AS THE BEFORE RANGE(1567-666).but it is very IMPORTANT nonetheless AS IT PROVIDE MISSING LINKS!!

THESE NEW IMPORTANT 4Digit numbers 1036,1118,1185

sp500 FAMOUS 10 week upleg HISTORY,only for 1st time 9 weeks
CRITIERIA FOR 10WK UPLEG:START WITH A LONG CANDLE BODY,LAST WEEK ENDS WITH A LONG CANDLE BODY

1st HALF

1.mar9 2009 to may4 2009(9weeks)
up 260pts
672-929

2.JUL13 2009- SEPT14 2009(10WEEKS)
up 200points
875-1075

3.nov2,2009-jan4 2010(10weeks)
up 120pts
1029-1145

FIRST THREE 10WEEKS UPLEGS MAINTAIN BY UPWARD SUPPORT TRENDLINE CONNECTING LOWS

4. feb15 2010-apr19,2010(10weeks)
up 140points
1079-1218

SECOND HALF

5. AUG30 2010-NOV1 2010(10WEEKS)
UP 190POINTS
1040-1228

6. NOV29 2010---???
SO FAR,nov 29 2010 TO NOW,JAN 8 IS 6 WEEKS
UP 100POINTS SO FAR IN 6WEEKS
1173----??

FOUR WEEKS TO GO.....

THE RESTING PERIOD

1.MAY11 2009-JUL6 2009
MAX DOWN 60POINTS
930-869
9WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:DOUBLE TOP,RETRACE TO 78.6%FIB of rise(672 to 929),down 6.5pc
bounce off 880,23.6pc of plunge

2.SEPT21 2009-OCT26 2009
MAX DOWN 54POINTS
1074-1020
6WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:DOUBLE TOP AND HORIZONTAL BAND,bounce off 38.2pcof plunge FIB

3. JAN11-FEB8 2010:
MAX DOWN 90POINTS
1150-1044
5WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION: break uptrend diagonal support line connecting lows of starting weeks of 1st two 10 weeks,down 9pc,ALMOST MISSING "CORRECTION" technical definition of 10pc

4. END OF FIRST HALF:
max down 210points
1220-1010
19weeks
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:bounce off 38.2pc fib of 07-09plunge,1013

START OF 2ND HALF

5.MAX DOWN 50points
1227-1177
3weeks
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:park below 1228,61.8pc fib of 1576-666 plunge


OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SP500:

move beyond 23.6pc to 930(23.6)--9WEEKS
fell back retest 23.6pc
went beyond 38.2pc to 1075(38.2pc)--10WEEKS
fell back retest 38.2pc 1013
went beyond 50pc to 1145(50pc)--10WEEKS
fell below 50pc 1121 to 1044(miss technical definition of "correction")
went to test 61.8pc 1228 FAILED,NEVER GO BEYOND 1228 (61.8)--10WEEKS
PLUNGE 210pts due to EXCUSE EURO CRISIS,BOUNCE OFF 38.2pc 1013,(NARROWLY AVOID BEARMARKET DEFINITION OF 20PC)
went back to retest 61.8pc at 1228 (61.8)--10WEEKS
fell 4pc just below 61.8pc to 1177(just belown3pc rule)

THE GOLDEN QUESTION!!!

NOW!!!GOING TO 1320 OR 1381(78.6PC???)

im going to change my estimate because everytime sp500 rise 10weeks sure to go to A higher fib OR BEYOND a higher FIB(once we cross that FIB)

NOW MY ESTIMATE FOR THIS RALLY END 4 WEEKS LATER AT 78.6PC 1381-1400!!!!!

MEANING THERE WILL BE A RALLY OF extra 100-120POINTS FROM 2ND WEEK JAN TO 1ST WEEK FEB 2011

MY COMMENTS::

very well planned indeed!!!IVE SHOWN HOW TECHNICAL THE STOCKMARKET IS..EVERY UPLEG,DOWNLEG HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH TECHNICALS,patterns.THOSE PEOPLE WHO NEVER STUDY THOROUGHLY WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND THE MAGIC OF TECHNICALS


fibonnaccis of sp500 of big plunge (1576-666) 2007
23.6pc: 880
38.2: 1013
50pc:1121
61.8pc:1228
78.6: 1381

Wealthy Singaporeans cautious about investments



Yet more than half of them still managed to grow net worth in the last six months.

The latest findings of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker show that affluent Singaporeans are relatively cautious about investments, when compared to their Asian counterparts.

More than half of affluent individuals surveyed in India (54%) and HK (52%) and almost a third in China (29%) and Taiwan (28%) said that they are looking to increase their investment, particularly in local securities. By comparison, only 19 percent of affluent Singaporeans plan to increase their investment in equities and bonds, according to an HSBC report.

A wave of affluent investors taking up new investment products is also expected from Greater China: 32% in HK, 21% in mainland China and 12% from Taiwan, but in Singapore, only 1 percent planned to take up new investments.

The third wave of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker was conducted by Nielsen for HSBC across 2,072 affluent individuals aged 18-65 in seven key markets in Asia from February to April 2010. With the last wave conducted in September to October 2009, the survey gauged the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by liquid assets or mortgage value.

The survey also calculated a risk index to measure mentality and behaviour towards security and growth. On a scale of 0-200, where 0 represents security and 200 for growth, markets tended to hover near the mean of 100 for Indonesia (100), India (100) and mainland China (99) showing a more balanced attitude toward risk compared to six months ago.

The more mature markets of Taiwan (89), Malaysia (89), Singapore (82) and Hong Kong (82) show a shift to a security-oriented investment strategy. Singapore registered the largest drop in risk appetite, from 95 in the last survey six months ago to 82 in this survey.

Preference for stable wealth growth
This cautious approach appears to be working for affluent Singaporeans, as the vast majority maintained or grew their net worth in the last six months (91%). While this is a consistent trend across the region, Singapore registered the highest percentage of affluent individuals who maintained and grew their assets in the region. When compared to the last survey, Singapore also has the largest increase in affluent individuals who maintained or grew their assets in the region (91% vs 73%).

Despite being relatively conservative, affluent Singaporeans are among the top three countries with the highest increase in total net worth in the region. More than half of affluent Singaporeans increased their total net worth in the last six months (52%). However, it is the affluent Mainland Chinese who are leading Asia’s wealth surge with 69 percent increasing their total net worth in the last six months; followed by Malaysia at 58 percent. The Singapore findings are fairly consistent with the last survey, when 53% of Singaporeans saw an increase in total net worth.

Consistent with the conservative investment approach of affluent Singaporeans, 47 percent – the highest in the region – said that they preferred to focus on capital protection when asked about risk appetite. Singapore also registered the largest increase (29%) in affluent individuals who tended toward capital protection in the region.

The majority of affluent individuals in the other countries have a moderate appetite for risk. Indonesia (25%) and Malaysia (23%) showed the largest increase in people with a bigger risk appetite. In Singapore, only 8 percent - the lowest in region - said they have a bigger risk appetite.

Mr Greg Zeeman, Head of Personal Financial Services at HSBC Singapore said, “The findings of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker show that affluent Singaporeans are growing their wealth in a safe and steady way. Staying invested and building a core suite of investment solutions for capital protection is essential to achieving stable wealth growth and this is what we advise our customers to do, particularly in times of market uncertainty.”

Relatively under-invested in equities
Aside from local currency deposits, the survey also found that local securities, unit trusts and foreign currency deposits are the more popular financial holdings among affluent Asians. In Singapore, about 40 percent of affluent individuals hold unit trusts and local securities; and 19 percent hold foreign currency deposits.

However, equity holdings are significantly higher in most of the other Asian countries particularly in local securities, which are held by 87 percent of affluent Hong Kongers; 71 percent of affluent Mainland Chinese; 70 percent of affluent Taiwanese and 60 percent of affluent Indians. More than half of affluent individuals in India (58%), Malaysia (56%), China (55%) and Taiwan (55%) also hold unit trusts.

Affluent individuals in Taiwan and Mainland Chinese are the biggest equity traders, with a 12-month average turnover in stocks of US$547,739 and US$371,885 respectively. Mainland Chinese are also Asia’s biggest unit trust investors, with the highest 12-month average unit trust turnover at US$30,141.

Mr Zeeman said, “Affluent individuals in other parts of Asia such as Mainland China and India may be more adventurous with investments because they tend to be younger accumulating wealth very quickly. Affluent individuals in Singapore tend to be more mature and focused on wealth preservation to provide for the needs of their family and retirement. However, at every life stage there are benefits to diversifying into equities to tap into the upside of the market. Affluent Singaporeans who have a relatively conservative investment appetite can do this through unit trusts, which are tailored and managed to suit their risk appetite.”

Profile of affluent Singaporeans
On the profile of affluent individuals across Asia, the survey found affluent Singaporeans to be older, with an average age of 44. Mainland China has the youngest affluent population with an average age of 36, followed by India with an average age of 38 and Indonesia with an average age of 39.

The majority of affluent Asians are married with kids, with the largest percentage in Taiwan (88%), followed by Malaysia (81%) and India (78%). 64% of affluent Singaporeans are married with kids. Hong Kong has the lowest proportion of affluent individuals who are married with kids (46%) and the highest percentage of affluent individuals with double income and no kids - 39% - which is more than double that of Singapore (18%).

Hong Kongers are also the most affluent in Asia with average liquid assets of over US$300,000 almost twice that of Singaporeans, which are second with an average of over US$180,000 in liquid assets.

The survey also found that Singapore has highest percentage of affluent individuals that use overseas banking services (21%). Hong Kong is second at 11%, followed by Taiwan and India both at 6%.

Commenting on this finding, Mr Zeeman said, “We can certainly vouch for the demand for global banking services amongst affluent Singaporeans, who are increasingly mobile and world-oriented. In 2009, HSBC Premier - our personalised banking platform that enables customers to access service and support around the world - recorded the largest increase in new customers across all our customer propositions in Singapore.”

An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980's and 1990's for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.

Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance

Secular Bear Duration Avg Yearly Ret Secular Bull Duration Avg Yearly Ret
Markets (Years) (Dow) Markets (Years) (Dow)
1906-1921 16 1.58% 1922-1928 7 17.20%
1929-1949 21 1.69% 1950-1965 16 10.60%
1966-1982 17 1.59% 1983-1999 17 15.30%
2000-?


Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and S&P 500 Performance
Secular Bear Duration Avg Yearly Ret Secular Bull Duration Avg Yearly Ret
Markets (Years) (S&P 500) Markets (Years) (S&P 500)
1906-1921 NA NA 1922-1928 7 17.90%
1929-1949 21 2.34% 1950-1965 16 11.40%
1966-1982 17 3.64% 1983-1999 17 14.96%
2000-?


The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Market which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.

Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.



Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).



Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960's through the 1970's in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.



Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.

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