17th may 2013-i told you,sti is listless without hangseng.look at the limpy sgp market

shanghai still continue to surge up,2280!!

shanghai DEC31,2012 CLOSED AT 2269,NOW IT IS FINALLY UP FOR THE YEAR!!

MAY2013 WILL BE A VERY GOOD MONTH AND 2013 WILL BE A VERY GOOD YEAR FOR THE CHINA MAIN INDICES!!

16th may2013-THE MOMENT I SAID THE HOLY TRINITY(usd,china index,shipping stocks) ARISE FROM THE DEAD,TONIGHT THEY ALL ARISE!!

I TOLD U ALL B4,SHIPPING STOCKS ARE WAITING FOR CHINA,OR CAN BE SAID AS A PROXY TO CHINA INDEX.TODAY SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BREAKS THRU MY 2245,TONIGHT ALL USA SHIPPING STOCKS SURGE UP LIKE MAD!!!!!!

AS AT 11.20PM,SINGAPORE TIME

EAGLEBULK+60%
EXCEL MARITIME +41%
GENCO+18%
DRYSHIPS+16%
DIANA+6%
FRONTLINE +11%
PARAGON +11%
NAVIOS MARITIME +7%
FREESEAS +32%
SAFEBULKERS +7%
STARBULK +7%


 

16th may2013-AS SOON AS I SAID CHINA INTEREST RATES WILL BE CUT SOON,TODAY CHINA PROPERTY STOCKS SURGED AND SHNAGHAI COMPOSITE BREAKS 2245!!

I HAVE NOTHING TO ADD.THOSE WHO I SMSED TO AT 12.30AM CAN VOUCH FOR ME THAT I DID SAY THAT CHINA WILL BREAK 2245 BY THURS/FRIDAY THIS WEEK AND CHINA INTEREST RATES GOING TO BE CUT SOON.

TODAY CHINA PROPERTY STOCKS RALLY.SURELY YOU NEED NOT WAIT TILL NEWS TO BE OUT THEN KNOW THAT PBOC GOING TO LOWER RATES????

I ALREADY TOLD ALL THAT I KNOW.STOCKMARKET IS A PLACE OF GREAT FUTURE FORETELLING.IT IS NOT SIMPLY A PLACE TO GAMBLE.WHAT HAPPEN IN THE STOCKMARKET WILL HAPPEN IN THE REAL ECONOMY 6-8MONTHS LATER.

EVEN IF YOU DO NOT BUY STOCKS,YOU CAN ALSO USE STOCKMARKET KNOWLEDGE IN YOUR PROPERTY TIMING AND YOUR JOB TIMINGS.WHEN STOCKMARKET IS IN BULLRUN,IF U WORK,U CAN JOLLY WELL AFFORD TO SWITCH JOBS,JOBHOP,TALK BACK TO YOUR EMPLOYER,BLAH BLAH.

BUT IF STOCKMARKET PLUNGES,YOU JOLLY WELL KNOW WHAT TO DO.SUCK THUMB AND KEEP QUIET,OBEY YOUR BOSS.

ISN'T THE STOCKMARKET USEFUL?? 

16th MAY2013-LATEST NEWS IN MAY2013-"probability drybulk demand will outpace supply growth in later part of 2013 looks promising"-AS QUOTED

Dry bulk ship capacity grew 6.95% year-over-year to 595.98 million dwt, lower than the 7.10% increase seen for the prior week.
Wednesday, 01.May.2013, 00:05 (GMT+3)

---

Dry bulk capacity growth slows further, encouraging sign for later half of 2013
In a highly commoditized industry like the shipping industry, capacity is an important metric that directly impacts companies’ top line, or revenue performance.

When capacity grows faster than demand, competition will rise among individual shipping firms as they try to utilize idle ships and cover fixed costs.

This will lower day rates, which will negatively affect bottom line earnings, free cash flows and share prices for companies such as DryShips Inc. (DRYS), Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX), Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM) and Safe Bulkers Inc. (SB).

Rise in capacity is the lowest figure, year-over-year, in week ending April 19th For the week ending April 27th, dry bulk ship capacity grew 6.95% year-over-year to 595.98 million dwt, lower than the 7.10% increase seen for the prior week.

This is a large improvement since the beginning of 2011 when capacity growth was running above 16%, primarily driven by over purchases of new ship builds as managers became too optimistic with future trade growth before the financial crisis.

Unfortunately, trade growth fell after the financial crisis as the golden age of investment led economic development in China to come to an end. Growth in iron ore imports, which makes up more than ~20% of global dry bulk trade, fell from 17.8% to 5.7% per year. In 2013, Jefferies estimates signal expected dry bulk trade growth of at least 6%.

At the beginning of the year, dry bulk ship capacity grew at a rate of 9.46% year-over-year; last week, it was growing at 6.95%. The probability that demand growth will outpace supply growth later this year looks increasingly more promising.
Long-term outlook for dry bulk shipping looks positive While dry bulk firms, such as DRYS, DSX, NMM and SB, will continue to face headwinds in the short to medium-term, since China’s economic data appears to be less optimistic compared to the start of the year and capacity growth remains elevated, shipping companies should do well in the long-run as shipping rates are at a record low and should eventually recover.

For investors looking to diversify investments across several companies, they can look towards the Guggenheim Shipping ETF (SEA), which invests in the largest shipping companies world-wide. Source: Market Realist

 

http://www.seanews.com.tr/article/TURSHIP/DRYBULK/101007/Dry-Bulk-Ship-Capacity/

 

THE ABOVE ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN WITHOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHINA RATE CUT SCENARIO.IF CHINA DOES CUT RATES ANYTIME SOON,SHIPPING STOCKS WILL GET A SUPER EXTRA BOOST!!GO MAD !!

 

I RODE ALL PAST MERCATOR SINGAPORE UPTRENDS FROM AFTER MARCH 2009-

 

1)19C TO 44.5C,2009

 

2)13.6C TO 18.5C,2012

 

3)11.2C TO 14C,2013

 

4)next??

15th may2013-be prepared for china cut rates soon.

why?isnt 4 reasons enough?

1)china has a "BAO BA"="PROTECT 8% GDP ANNUAL GROWTH AGENDA".

2)NECESSARY FOR CHINA PROPERTIES TO HAVE A DEADCAT BOUNCE AFTER 3YEARS OF PROPERTY TIGHTENING.

3)china interest rate cycle is on downtrend-LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS.next low will be lower than 5%p.a

4)USDRMB is on a downtrend for too long,meaning there must be a SUBSTANTIAL rebound up in shortterm.

SO WHAT IF LOWER INTEREST RATES WILL REFUEL INFLATION FEARS??NECESSARY TO BOOST EXPORTS,MAINTAIN OR INCREASE JOBS AND ALSO TO PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF OPTIMISM TO CHINA PROPERTIES,IN THE TIGHTENING CYCLE FOR TOO LONG.

i am also an econs graduate,everything has cycle.of course longterm usdrmb is DOWNTREND,china property is UP,but shortterm wise,both RMB AND CHINA PROPERTIES ARE JUST WAITING FOR A RATE CUT
 

10TH MAY2013-SHIPPING CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN 2YEARS

Shipping confidence reaches highest level for two years

26 March 2013

Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry recovered to their highest level for two years in the three months ended February 2013, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey. There was improved expectation of freight rate increases over the next twelve months, particularly in the dry bulk sector, and greater likelihood of new investment in the industry.

In February 2013, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.8 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high), compared to the figure of 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in November 2012. The survey was launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.

All categories of respondent expressed increased confidence over the three-month period. The confidence rating for managers of 6.2 (up from 6.0 last time) was the highest since August 2010, while that for charterers was up from 5.6 to 6.0, the highest since November 2010. Confidence on the part of owners was up from 5.5 to 5.7 (the highest since May 2011) while for brokers the increase was from 5.3 to 5.6, the highest level in the past twelve months. Geographically, although confidence in Asia was down (from 6.0 to 5.6) and in North America (from 6.6 to 6.1) it was up in Europe, from 5.3 to 5.8, its highest level since August 2010.

Shipping partner, Richard Greiner, says, “Another small increase in confidence is very good news. Indeed, two successive quarters of improved confidence is in many ways more encouraging than one sizeable swing. It suggests that confidence is slowly building, indicating the start of a credible recovery.

“It is still early days, but the tone of the comments from respondents this time indicates something of a sea change. Whereas previous surveys have been dominated by concerns over specific issues such as tonnage overcapacity and the economic woes in Europe and elsewhere, this time there were no similar over-arching areas of concern identified by respondents. Indeed, the responses in many cases focused on planning for the future - for example by investing in new, fuel-efficient tonnage, exploiting new opportunities created by companies exiting the market, and exploring the possibilities for LNG as a clean fuel - rather than on compensating for past events.

“Improved confidence was reflected in another increase in the expectation levels involving potential new investments. Now is certainly a good time to invest, particularly for those who can identify a niche opportunity in a specific area, one for which there is growing demand and which is backed by a proper business plan.

“The indications are that the worst of the current shipping cycle could be over. But serious challenges lie ahead. Operating costs are going up, particularly fuel and manpower, and there is the added burden of increasing operational and environmental regulation. The cost of complying with the BWM convention has still not been accurately quantified, but it will not be insignificant. Indeed, one respondent likened it to a “ticking bomb which can go off at any moment, demanding enormous investment from already cash-strapped owners, and the banks will probably not be standing in line to support them.”

“Meanwhile, although freight rates still have a long way to go before they reach the levels seen at the height of the boom, the responses to the survey did reveal greater overall confidence in rate increases over the coming year in all three main tonnage categories. This was most evident in the dry bulk sector, where expectations of better rates were higher than at any time since the survey was launched in 2008. Although there is still a lot of new dry bulk tonnage coming into the market, scrapping levels in this sector have raced ahead, with well over 500 bulk carriers reported to have been consigned to demolition yards in 2012.

“Scrapping levels in all over-tonnaged sectors will need to be maintained, and improved upon, over the next twelve months, if shipping is to have a chance of returning to profitability. It is likely to be a slightly different industry which emerges from this prolonged downturn, one in which the banks will exert greater control for some time to come. Vessel values are likely to remain under pressure this year, and there is a lot of financial restructuring yet to be done. But shipping will retain its entrepreneurial flair, which is in no way undermined by operating from a stronger financial base.”

 

ABOVE ARTICLE FROM:

 

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:CllGLgX4DNoJ:moorestephens.co.uk/Shipping-confidence-reaches-highest-level-for-two-years.aspx&hl=en&gl=sg&strip=1

10TH MAY2013

Rotation to Cyclicals Could Provide Further Market Boost

Text Size

Published: Thursday, 9 May 2013 | 6:00 AM ET

By: JeeYeon ParkCNBC.com Writer

Getty Images

Investors have been dipping into growth-oriented cyclicals, the sectors that have been under appreciated most of the year, and if it continues, the trend could add more momentum to the stock market rally.

"We are continuing to see a lot of money coming into the market, whether it's coming off the sidelines or into the mutual funds—$150 billion came out of money markets so far this year," said David Lutz, managing director and head of exchange-traded fund trading at Stifel Nicolaus. "We may see a pullback at some point, but it should be relatively short-lived and I'd be watching for a sector rotation."
In the first quarter, health care, consumer staples and utilities rounded out the top three sector performers, helping to propel the S&P 500 index by 10 percent.
(Read More: Sell in May, Go Away? Not This Year, Say Traders)
But since mid-April, the cyclical sectors (techs, energy, materials, financials, industrials and consumer discretionary) have gained more than 5 percent each and have outperformed the defensive sectors (consumer staples, telecoms, utilities and health care), which are mostly in the red. And in the last two weeks, techs have significantly outperformed the Dow and S&P indexes, surging nearly 8 percent.
The trend continued Wednesday, as techs and materials were the best performing major S&P sectors, while utilities and consumer staples declined.

The Great Rotation

The Dow closed above 15,000 for the first time on Tuesday. CNBC's Larry Kudlow and Bob Pisani discuss whether the market could move even higher.

Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury, at a 2013 low just last week, has been ticking up in the past few days, after the better-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls reduced the appetite for safe-haven assets. Lutz said the move in the 10-year yield is driving investors who have been hiding in dividend-paying stocks toward the cyclicals.

"Also, gas prices have started to come down and that's a big tailwind for the U.S. consumer. Also, bank lending standards are loosening up so it feels like more credit is flowing into our economy," explained Lutz. "That's a strong tailwind for consumer discretionary stocks that can benefit from that trend."
Defensive stocks (non-cyclicals) traditionally outperform the market when economic growth slows, while cyclicals are closely tied to economic performance. The defensive sectors also usually benefit regardless of economic fluctuations. And some strategists argue that market gains are harder to be sustained when defensive names outperform as it usually signals economic weakness.
"When the defensive sectors were leading the market higher, it showed how investors were skeptical about the sustainability of the rally," said Dan Veru, CIO of Palisade Capital Management. "The defensives are vulnerable for a pullback—money flew into them because of a fear of a swing swoon we've seen over the past few years, but I don't think 'sell in May and go away' is going to work this year."
(Read More: Bargain-Hunting in Cyclical Stocks)
Veru said he is in favor of the pro-cyclical sectors, saying industrials and transportation-related companies will mostly likely benefit continuing economy in the U.S through the second half of the year.
Veru recommended stocks including Genesee & Wyoming and Manitowoc.

How to Invest Now?

Discussing investment strategies, with Ben Willis, Albert Friend; and CNBC's Seema Mody, Bob Pisani and Josh Lipton.

Meanwhile, some strategists said the idea of a sector rotation may be premature.
(Read More: What's Beyond theS&P 500's Relentless Rally)
"What we've seen in the last couple of weeks is some bargain hunting," said Alec Young, global equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. "Defensives have outperformed for months so we're seeing a bit of a dead cat bounce in the cyclicals. While cyclicals may do a bit better from here, you shouldn't expect the same kind of alpha that we saw from defensives because the fundamentals aren't there yet."
Young said there needs to be further evidence of a global economic recovery in order for the cyclicals to truly lead the market.
"Right now, cyclicals are outperforming because people like the low valuations, earnings have been better than the lowered expectations and central banks are being very proactive," he said. "So there's a bit of buying-on-hope going on. But in order to get real sustained alpha [in cyclicals], we need to see more signs of recovery in international markets."
Going forward, Young remains "overweight" on health care. He recommended playing cylicals from the domestic side, adding that he is bullish on the consumer discretionary sector.
"The global cyclicals are bit of a 'show me' story—it's a higher risk, higher reward trade," he explained. "Central banks have been easy for a long time overseas, which has helped stabilize the debt crisis, but in terms of jump starting growth, it really hasn't worked."

—By CNBC's JeeYeon Park. Follow JeeYeon on Twitter @JeeYeonParkCNBC.

Questions? Comments? Email us at marketinsider@cnbc.com

10th may 2013-WHY EVERYTHING POINTS TO OCT/NOV2014 AS THE FINALE IN HANGSENG,CHINA SSE AND STI

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE ABOVE RESEARCH DONE BY ME.
WHY WAS HANGSENG 1987 TO 1991 OMITTED?BECAUSE IT WAS SUCH A SLOW UPTREND UNLIKE THE ONES THAT I HAVE STATED HERE,CLEAR STEEPER GRADIENTS.HANGSENG 1987 TO 1991 CLEARLY LACKED INTEREST DUE TO SHANGHAI COMPOSITE ONLY STARTED IN 1991.

I HAVE HAD IT ALL FIGURED OUT!!!
calculation methodology:

1)STRAITSTIMES INDEX,STI,ALWAYS HAVE A HABIT OF UP 3X,SO FROM OCT 2008 LOWS WE CAN PROJECT THE SAME 6YEARS RALLY FROM 2008 NOVEMBER+6years=2014 NOVEMBER,MY STI TARGET 4200 TO 5000.why is it 6years uptrend?because it has same characteristics as the dec1987 to jan1994 rally.2nd year,march1990,there was a 20+% drop from 1500s to 1100,SAME AS 2nd year,nov2010,there was also a 20+%drop from 3300s to 2500.

2)CHINA,AS USUAL MY 7YEARS ITCH THEORY HAS TO COME INTO PLAY,LIKE I MENTIONED IN MY EARLIER POSTS,SHANGHAI COMPOSITE WAS IN A 7YEARS SECULAR BEARMARKET FROM 1992 MY TO 1999 MAY.DURING THOSE 7 YEARS,SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TOUCH THE RESISTANCE A TOTAL OF 4 TIMES.NOW SHANGHAI COMPOSITE HAS NOT EVEN TOUCHED 6000 ONCE IN THE PAST 5+YEARS,HENCE OCT2007+7years=OCT2014,sse target6000

3)Using OCT2010,HANGSENG 16000 value X 2.5 = 34000-40000,SO NOVEMBER 2011 PLUS 2 YEARS= NOVEMBER 2013,OR PLUS 2.5YEARS=MAY2014(follow usa INTERIM,not FINAL peak 1st),AND PLUS 3years=NOVEMBER2014(AND THEN follow china FINAL peak,hsi double top at 34-40k,same as usa march 2000 1st peak 1552 then 2nd peak in sept2000,1530)

4)USA SP500 WILL KEEP ON GOING HIGHER TILL ITS OWN 2017,HANGSENG AND STI BOTH ONE YEAR PLUNGE 60-70% AGAIN TILL NOV2015 AND THEN FOLLOW USA REBOUND TO OCT2017.

CANNOT BE SO COINCIDENTAL?yes IT IS "COINCIDENTAL"

OCT1987=BLACK MONDAY
OCT 1997=HANGSENG CRASH 14% IN ONE DAY
OCT2007=USA SUBPRIME CRISIS



hangseng UP 4X from 16000 IS NOT REASONABLE AND NOT LOGICAL.                                                                    

6th may2013-EXACTLY WHAT I SAID BACK IN 2011!!HOW CAN MY JC ECONS TEACHER COUSIN BUY A PRIVATE APARTMENT AT PEAK OF SINGAPORE GDP GROWTH AND BOTTOM OF INTEREST RATE CYCLE??ONE WAY STREET??ECONS TEACHER ONLY KNOW HOW TO TEACH BUT DO NOT KNOW HOW TO USE FOR THEIR DAILY LIVES.I AM ALSO A NUS ECONS GRADUATE

  

National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan says property buyers must take into account future hikes in interest rates and should not over-commit.


SINGAPORE : National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan has urged those who might be looking to buy property to take into account future spikes in interest rates.
Speaking during a dialogue with young Singaporeans, he also cautioned buyers not to over-commit.

He explained that the current low interest rates for home loans will not last forever, and the eventual rate may be many percentage points higher than it is today.
Some 150 youths from Sembawang spent Saturday afternoon discussing their hopes and aspirations for Singapore with their MP Mr Khaw.

They also engaged the Minister in an hour-long dialogue, as part of the Our Singapore Conversation.

Even though housing may not be an immediate concern for them, the issue did not escape attention.

Mr Khaw assured the youths that housing will be made available and kept affordable.

He also offered advice for property buyers.

Mr Khaw said: "They assume two things. Property prices will keep going (up). Two, interest rates will keep on remaining low. Both are wrong and therefore one day, both will collapse on them. So, if you are over-committed, let's say you can only afford a 3-room flat, (but) you decide to buy five room flat. Yes, based on today's interest rates you can afford a five-room flat. But, when interest rates go up as it will, you will no longer be able to afford a five-room flat and what will happen, your bank will start calling you up to please top up or sell your flat and that's when trouble starts."
In addition, Mr Khaw said the high property prices will not last in the long run.

At the same time, he acknowledged he cannot be certain when and how much prices will come down.

He added: "Only when you can get enough buyers who can afford, will prices stay up, if not they will come down. Today because of low interest rates, this bubble is being pushed up and sustained longer than it should have. So, it will collapse in a matter of time and therefore do not think that prices will keep on going up."
 

MY COMMENTS IN RED


3ROOM HDB WILL NOW HUAT AS IT IS THE MOST BASIC!!HUMANS NEED MEDIA TO TELL THEM WHAT TO DO.THEY HAVE NO FORESIGHT TURNING POINTS ARE COMING!!

may5th 2013--hangseng and sti always have abnormal and huge returns when BOTH USA AND CHINA UPTRENDS TIMING DO COINCIDE

MAY4TH 2013-i want to be proven wrong that sp500 is NOT GOING FOR RETRACEMENT as i am sick of waiting one brother up,the other down!!1624 WILL BE THE LAST BARRIER WHETHER SP500 WILL HAVE A MINOR RETRACEMENT TO 1437-1460!

SIMILARITIES

1)MACRO TREND IS 7YEARS,NO MATTER IS 7YEARS SECULAR BEAR MARKET OR 7YEARS OF UPTREND

2)CHINA FINAL 2YEARS OF RALLY ALWAYS COINCIDE WITH USA PEAK

3)CHINA FINAL 2 YEARS OF RALLY ARE 50% GAINS AND 600% RESPECTIVELY IN 1999-2001 AND 2005-2007!!

4)1994-2001=CHINA RALLY 700%,1994-2000=USA RALLY LESS THAN 400%(BOTH STARTING POINTS ARE 1994)

5)2005-2007 CHINA RALLIED 600% TO BREAK 2001,2245.2002-2007,USA RALLIED 200% TO REACH 2000MAX IN SP500.

6)THIS TIME CHINA RALLIED IS NOT WITH USA RALLIED IN THE WHOLE 5-7YEARS.THIS TIME IT IS LIKE THE 2005-2007,WHEREBY CHINA DID NOT RALLY WITH USA FROM 2009 MARCH TO 2012DECEMBER,INSTEAD IT WENT DOWN,A REPEAT OF 2001-2005.

USA OWN RALLY THIS TIME COULD BE A REPEAT OF 5-7YEARS FROM 2009,A REPEAT OF 2002-2007?OR TILL 2016,WHERE I ENVISAGED TERRIBLE TIMES FOR CHINA ALREADY TRAPPED IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET FROM 2007.

NOW SP500 IS NEAR A VERY CRITICAL POINT,1624,EXACTLY 3% FROM 1576.THE ALL IMPORTANT 3% BREAKOUT RULE!!AS TO WHETHER A USA RETRACEMENT IS ON THE CARDS TO 1437-1460 SOLELY LIES ON THE ABILITY TO BREAK 1624.IF THERE IS A SHARP PULLBACK UPON TESTING 1624,THEN SADLY MY RETRACEMENT CASE WILL STILL BE VALID.I WILL BE ECSTATICALLY HAPPY AND OVERJOYED IF I AM PROVEN WRONG ABOUT A MINOR RETRACEMENT IN SP500!!

COME ON,PROVE ME WRONG, SP500!I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS DAY WHEN USA AND CHINA CAN SURGE TOGETHER FOR 4 YEARS!!

3rd may2013-im so happy to have been proven wrong about usa going for minor retracement

but no matter the minor direction i got it wrong,the major i am still correct about there is no huge CORRECTIONS like in the may2010 and may2011.THERE ARE ONLY TWO "MY DEFINITION" OF CORRECTIONS AFTER SUBPRIME LOWS IN MARCH 2009.

IF THIS TIME,BOTH BIG BROTHERS,USA AND CHINA GO UP TOGETHER,IT WILL BE ASTONISHING FOR BOTH STI AND HANGSENG!!VERY RARELY,BOTH BIG BROTHERS UP TOGETHER,ONLY HAPPEN 2-4YEARS ONCE!!2007,2009,now 2013??

do you know my majority of my portfolio is in shipping stocks,the most cyclical industry??why should i keep such cyclical stocks IF SP500 IS GOING FOR CORRECTION AS IT HAS BEEN PROVEN SHIPPING STOCKS TUMBLE THE MOST,MORE THAN 50% DURING USA CORRRECTIONS IN MID 2010,2011

DO YOU KNOW WHICH SECTOR WILL BENEFIT THE MOST WHEN BOTH USA AND CHINA UPTRENDS COINCIDE TOGETHER,EG 2006-2007,MARCH 2009-NOV2009???
ANSWER:SHIPPING STOCKS!!

 

the moment i said sp500 REPEATS PEAK IN APRIL PATTERN,AND IS DUE FOR A RETRACEMENT TO 1437-1460,THE NEXT DAY,IT PLUNGES TO 1581

AS OF NOW,3.27AM SINGAPORE TIME,SP500 1581,DOWN 1%!!

NOW WE MUST SEE WHETHER CHINA SURGE AS I PREDICTED FROM MAY 2013 TO NOV 2013 BECAUSE ALL THE SIGNS IN STI,HANGSENG AND SHANGHAI OWN SSE CHART SAY THAT SHANGHAI WILL SURGE UP FROM MAY2013 TO NOV2013.

TOMORROW IS SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 1ST DAY OF TRADING RESUMPTION AFTER GOLDEN WEEK HOLIDAYS!!I AM VERY EXCITED,WAITING IN FULL EAGERNESS AND WITH ABATED BREATH!!

USA 3RD HUMP WILL END WITH A RETURN TO 1600-1650 IN NOV2013 WITH SHANGHAI PEAKING OUT AT 3500 AND HANGSENG AT 78.6% FIBO 27400 AND STI AT 3900

THAT IS SHARESWIZARD SCENARIO---SAID ON 2ND MAY 2013

2nd may 2013--THINGS CANNOT BE SO COINCIDENTAL??

USA STOCKS ARE GOING FOR A RETRACEMENT,SO LET US SEE MORE INTERESTING INDEXES FROM ASIA.

SURELY PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS,THE BEAUTIFUL CHARTS AS DRAWN BY ME IS SELF EXPLANATORY.

THE FORMATIONS OF HANGSENG AND STI CANNOT BE SO INTRICATELY "COINCIDENTAL" THAT BOTH FORMATIONS BREAKOUT TARGETS GIVE THE 100% FIBO FOR STI AND THE 78.6% FIBO FOR HANGSENG.

IF YOU THINK MY CHARTS ARE ANYHOW DRAWN,PLEASE OPEN HANGSENG AND STI CHARTS AND SEE FOR YOURSELVES,COMPARE WITH MY ROUGH SKETCHES.

1st may 2013-GOD BLESS MY FORESIGHT!!!$ COMES ROLLING IN!!I HAVE GOOD FORESIGHTS AS THE GREEKS!!!

Greeks Bet Ship Rout Ending With Most Orders Since 2008: Freight

By Rob Sheridan - Apr 30, 2013 8:44 PM GMT+0800

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Greek shipping companies, the owners of one in six merchant vessels, are ordering the most newiron-ore carriers since 2008, betting the five-year rout in charter rates may be nearing an end.
The companies ordered 12 Capesizes last quarter, the most since the beginning of 2008, according to data from Golden Destiny SA, a shipbroker in Piraeus, Greece. Freight swaps, traded by brokers and used to bet on future transportation costs, anticipate rates will almost triple by the fourth quarter. Stock in Athens-based Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX), which owns 33 vessels, will climb 6.5 percent in a year, the average of 11 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg shows.

Enlarge image

Greeks Bet Ship Rout Ending With Most Orders Since 2008

Kevin Lee/Bloomberg

Ship prices plunged to the lowest in almost a decade in 2012 and charter rates tumbled 99 percent since 2008.

Ship prices plunged to the lowest in almost a decade in 2012 and charter rates tumbled 99 percent since 2008. Photographer: Kevin Lee/Bloomberg

Ship prices plunged to the lowest in almost a decade in 2012 and charter rates tumbled 99 percent since 2008. Construction costs are now so low that owners will probably order $250 billion of new vessels by 2016, according to Pareto Shipping AS, an Oslo-based research company. The Bloomberg Dry Ships Index of 12 companies rallied 9.4 percent this year, while the price of a new Capesize climbed for the first time in 33 months in March.
“Greek owners tend to have an instinct for these things,”said Dominic Meredith Hardy, an analyst at Galbraith’s Ltd., a 166-year-old shipbroker in London. “The fact we are seeing more buying is certainly a sign that sentiment is turning. They are sensing an opportunity.”

Worst Recession

Capesizes are earning about $4,900 a day, compared with $229,000 at the peak in 2008. The slump was caused by record ordering in 2007 and 2008, just before the global economyentered its worst recession since World War II. The fleet’s expansion is now slowing and Capesize charter costs will advance to an average of $17,500 a day next year, according to nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The orders by Greek owners, who have more merchant vessels than companies from any other nation, are twice last year’s total, according to Golden Destiny’s data. Shares of Diana Shipping advanced 29 percent to $9.45 this year and will reach $10.06 in 12 months, the estimates show. The company plans to acquire a ship each month through 2014, Executive Vice President Ioannis Zafirakis said by phone yesterday.
Diana Shipping has the third-largest weighting in the Bloomberg Dry Ships Index, while Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd. (2343)ranks first. Shares of Hong Kong-based Pacific Basin, which has a fleet of 148 ships, will advance 6.5 percent in a year, according to the average of 19 forecasts. The average Capesize is about 286 meters (938 feet) long and 46 meters wide, carrying more than 150,000 metric tons of iron ore.

Commodity Trade

Though the fleet is still expanding, growth will slow and seaborne commodity trade will expand 6 percent annually until 2016, Nicolai Hansteen, an analyst at Pareto, told a conference in Copenhagen on April 17. Dry-bulk shipping, which hauls cargoes from grains to coal to iron ore, probably will have the biggest share of the predicted $250 billion of vessel orders, according to Pareto. Capesize prices are the lowest ever when adjusted for inflation, Hansteen said.
The rebound may be curbed by the existing fleet’s size and by Chinese economic growth that’s the second-slowest this decade, even at an 8 percent annual pace. The nation is the biggest global importer of iron ore and coal, which generate the most demand for dry-bulk shipping.
Chinese steel mills may need less iron ore because they have stockpiled the most supplies in at least three years. Inventories of steel reinforcement bars are the highest for the time of year since at least 2010, according to data from Shanghai Steelhome Information, an industry research company.

Order Book

It takes about two years for a Capesize to be delivered once ordered, according to Erik Nikolai Stavseth, an analyst at Arctic Securities ASA in Oslo. Supply of the vessels almost tripled in the eight years through 2012, according to data fromClarkson Plc (CKN), the world’s largest shipbroker. Iron-ore shipments increased 87 percent to 1.1 billion tons annually in that span as coal cargoes expanded 65 percent to 1.06 billion tons.
Orders for new vessels now come to 15 percent of the existing fleet, compared with a record 100 percent in 2008, according to data from IHS Fairplay, a Redhill, England-based maritime research company. Some orders probably have been canceled and the actual number is likely even lower, according to Hansteen at Pareto.
John Fredriksen, the world’s richest shipping investor, is also spending billions on establishing a fleet of new, fuel-efficient vessels, including ore carriers. Frontline 2012 Ltd. (FRNT), in which he is the biggest shareholder, had four new Capesizes on order at the end of last year.
Frontline 2012 ordered its new ships from STX Jinhae inSouth Korea and at China’s Longxue and Jinhaiwan yards. Chinese shipbuilders accounted for 48 percent of Capesizes on order at the start of April and Japan ranked second with a 42 percent share, according to data from Clarkson.

Merchant Fleet

The glut in dry-bulk freight is mirrored across the merchant fleet. The ClarkSea Index, an overall measure of costs for shipping, averaged $9,600 a day last year, the lowest on record, Clarkson data show. As much as 90 percent of trade moves on vessels, according to the Round Table of International Shipping Associations.
Prices of new Capesizes probably have fallen far enough to reflect supply and demand, according to Will Fray, a senior analyst at Maritime Strategies International Ltd., a London-based freight-forecasting company. A new ship in China costs $47 million, down from as much as $99 million in 2008, according to London-based Clarkson.
The Greek orders for vessels are mostly from companies that are closely held, rather than publicly traded, according to Golden Destiny. Diana Shipping said April 9 it was buying a secondhand Capesize for $27 million.

Anticipated Revival

The shipping company will report a net loss of $14.8 million for this year before earning $890,000 in 2014 and $43.8 million in the following year, according to the averages of 17 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Diana Shipping’s planned vessel purchases are because the company anticipates a rebound in rates, Zafirakis said in the phone interview.
“The Greeks traditionally are more successful than most,”said David Webb, a director at Arrow Chartering (U.K.) Ltd., who correctly predicted rallies in freight rates in 2011 and 2012.“They are punting at what they think is the complete bottom.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Sheridan in London at rsheridan6@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alaric Nightingale at anightingal1@bloomberg.net

1st may 2013-LOOK AT WHAT CO FOUNDER OF THE CASE SHILLER INDEX HAS TO SAY,THE PROPERTY INDEX FOUNDER EVEN ADMIT STCKMKT BETTER THAN PROPERTY MARKET

Stocks Are a Better Investment Than Housing: Shiller

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Published: Tuesday, 30 Apr 2013 | 11:24 AM ET

By: Matthew J. BelvedereProducer, CNBC's "Squawk Box"

Getty Images

Noted economist Robert Shiller, well-known for his analysis of the housing market, told CNBC on Tuesday that he thinks stocks are a better investment than real estate.
Asked to compared the two, he said in a "Squawk Box" interview, "If it's just an investment [not for living], I would say the stock market."
"Stocks for the long run—the two century-long history—show a lot of amazingly good performance for stocks," he added. "Maybe it won't be that good in the future, but I bet it's better than housing."
(Read More: What Slowdown? Home Prices Up Most Since 2006)
(Read More: Fast Rise In US Home Prices, Some Murmur Bubble)

Rentals: The New American Dream?

Robert Shiller, Co-founder of the Case-Shiller Index, discusses the outlook on housing and whether Americans are abandoning the dream of home ownership in favor of renting.

In the decade—December 2002 to December 2012—home prices, as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index, yielded an annualized return of about 1 percent, while the S&P 500 Index gained just over 7 percent.
(Interactive Map: Tracking the US Real Estate Recovery)
Of course that comparison takes into account the historic housing collapse that began around 2008. The stock market also had a dramatic decline during the financial crisis, but has since recovered.
The S&P 500 Index finished at a record high close on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session 46 points away from its all-time high close.

    

           

 
•  
 

	Price		Change	%Change
S&P 500	1595.05		1.44	0.09%
DJIA	14813.71		-5.04	-0.03%

Real Estate

Home Sales Stuck

Empire State REIT

Builders Take It Slow

30th april 2013-THIS COORDINATION MUST BE FULFILLED BEFORE A MAJOR 3RD CORRECTION IN SP500 AFTER 2008SUBPRIME

what is the coordination??

for the previous 2 sp500 humps in 2010,2011,sp500 went higher intra-humps in april 2010 and april 2011 BUT hangseng went to the targets 1st,and then returned to double top later DUE TO CHINA WEAKNESS.

NOW MAJORITY ARE BULLISH ON USA AND BEARISH ON CHINA.THIS IS WHERE MAJORITY ARE ALWAYS WRONG.

THIS TIME,BE PREPARED FOR A CHINA SURGE IN MAY TO NOVEMBER 2013,PULLING HANGSENG HIGHER THAN 24000 BUT SP500 SAME DOUBLE TOP AT 1600-1650 IN NOV2013

30th april 2013-THOSE WHO RECEIVED MY DAILY SMSes can vouch that i did say sti will hit interim peak at 3380.HOW WELL COORDINATED STI3380 IS WITH SP500 DOUBLE TOP AT 1597!!

as stated above.THE COORDINATION IS FLAWLESS!!
I MAY PREDICT WRONG TARGETS BUT ONCE WHEN SUCH OBVIOUS COORDINATED TIMING IS THERE,I WILL NOT FAIL TO SEE THRU.

THIS IS A RETRACEMENT TO SP500 1437-1460,NOT A CORRECTION AS IN 2010 APRIL AND 2011 APRIL.

I REPEAT MY DEFINITION OF CORRECTIONS IS A BIT BIGGER THAN TEXTBOOK DEFINITION.I EXTEND CORRECTIONS TO BE DEFINED AS A NEAR 20% DROP FROM THE TOP.

AFTER THIS RETRACEMENT,WILL COME THE FINAL 10+WEEKS UPTREND,THE 10TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND BEFORE A MAJOR CORRECTION,WHICH WILL SIGNIFY THE END OF THE SP500 3RD HUMP!



 

28th april 2013-detailed fundamental analysis

2012-06-03 11:03

Global commercial vessel orders to rise 47% in 2013

A bulker built by STX Pan Ocean / Korea Times file

By Feynman Jeon

Global commercial ship orders are forecast to increase significantly in 2013 as shipbuilding financing recovers from the worst plight in the first quarter and the order placement glut during 2006 to 2008 subsides in 2013.

Commercial ship order growth should boost growth potential of the Korean Big Three shipmakers _ Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering _ and their share prices upside. In particular, Korea’s second-tier shipbuilders appear to benefit from the positive order prospects as the charterage of oil tankers looks likely to return to positive territory in the second half.

In the wake of the eurozone crisis that began in August 2011, the shipbuilding financing market has contracted sharply, and the fallout is felt heavily in commercial vessel orders. Lending from European banks that accounts for 70 percent of syndicated loans have dried up because they were busy writing off insolvent loans to the troubled European countries.

In late November 2011, the EU Summit agreed to have banks in Europe increase their capital ratios by June this year. Until that happens, loans to commercial vessels will be out of reach. We expect the ship financing market will come back to life only after June.

A meaningful recovery in the ship financing market should come when credit becomes available again and charterage rates rise. All in all, the ship financing market will not regain full strength until 2013 when the supply glut of commercial vessels is resolved and charterage rates rises.

The ship financing market recovery in 2013 will coincide with a rise in charterage. The past recovery pattern of the fourth quarter in 2008 lends credence to our forecast. When the 2008 global financial crisis hit, banks wrote off assets and erased exposure to shipbuilders. The ship financing market's recovery came five quarters after banks beefed up their capital.

The five-quarter time gap can be explained by the following factors: firstly, the recapitalization of the banks had to precede the revival of loans and; secondly, after the completion of recapitalization in the second quarter of 2009, loans did not flow into the shipbuilding market until charterage rates, or freight rates, took a meaningful upturn in 2010.

Commercial vessel deliveries are projected to decline sharply from 2014 onward. The excessive orders placed during 2006 to 2008 will have lingering impacts until 2013. Given a two year period from order placement to delivery, commercial vessel supply will continue to fall short of demand into late 2014 or 2015 unless new orders pick up in 2013.

Commercial vessel orders are forecast to shrink 30 percent to 20 million compensated gross ton (CGT) in 2012, comparable to the levels of the early 2000s. Compensated gross ton is a unit of measurement for shipbuilding activities. The sharp decline in orders is the combined outcome of the 2008 crisis, the eurozone debt crisis and slowing GDP growth. More than anything, the main culprit is a supply glut created by excessive orders placed in 2006 to 2008.

Until 2013, ship supply growth will outpace traffic growth. Starting in 2014, the supply glut will begin to recede and new deliveries sharply decline. Based on orders placed so far, there will be few new deliveries for 2015 and beyond. If global economic growth recovers, shippers will need new vessels as early as in 2015 to catch up with traffic growth.

Orders for containers and oil tankers are forecast to increase sharply in 2013. The oversupply conditions of bulkers will be resolved a year later because of the order overhang from 2010.

The key earnings variables for order growth in 2013 are shipping companies' ability to obtain new orders and the freight rates' direction, which are still weak.

Global oil carriers have been operating in the red for seven quarters since the third quarter of 2010, and they will not be able to return to profit until after 2012. Based on Bloomberg’s consensus on net profit in 2013, many shipping companies still remain in the red. We expect shipbuilding orders from oil carriers to stay weak, and only a handful of resource carriers will be able to lead global order growth in 2013.

Bulker operators are performing better than oil tanker operators, which is somewhat unexpected as bulkers are the type of vessels ordered most excessively. Many bulker operators are forecast to turn to black in 2013 after incurring operating losses in 2012. Despite their relatively strong results, bulker operators’ 2013 shipbuilding order volume growth is likely to come in lower than an appropriate level, due to the excessively large volumes of existing shipbuilding orders.

Container ship operators are displaying the most favorable operating results among the three vessel types. Many of them, which turned to red in terms of operating profit in the first quarter of 2011, will likely turn back to black in the second quarter of 2012 and significantly boost net profit in 2013. Fewer container ships are to be delivered in 2015, and most operators will likely turn to black in 2013.

The global commercial vessel order volume is projected to register 29.2 million CGT in 2013. This will quench shipbuilding companies’ thirst to some extent, although it is much smaller than the global total shipbuilding capacity of 52 million CGTs.

Order volumes will grow most significantly for container ships. This will likely benefit Korean shipbuilders most significantly, as they command an 80 percent share in the ultra-container ship market.

Commercial vessel prices are displaying bearish movements for all vessel types, except for LNG carriers, due to sharp reductions in order volume. Historically, vessel prices rose about six months after order volume rebounded. Thus commercial vessel prices will likely hit bottom in the first half of 2013 and then make a gradual rebound.

The commercial vessel order growth expected in 2013 will come as a boon for all shipbuilders, although its extent and timing will vary. In particular, the order volume growth will boost to mid-term growth of the “Big Three” shipbuilders with immediate impacts on their share prices. However, the commercial vessel order growth will not contribute significantly to overall order growth because commercial vessels are still a relatively small portion of their order backlog.

On the other hand, positive effects on the share prices of the three second-tier shipbuilders ― Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, STX Shipbuilding, and Hanjin Heavy Industries ― will materialize later but with bigger impacts because commercial vessels take up a larger portion of their order backlog.

 

28th april 2013-projection of hsi,china until the 3rd usa hump peak

last time during usa 1st 2 humps,usa peak both in april 2010 and 2011 respectively.china on the other hand peaked in november 2009 and 2010 with the completion of the 2 LARGE inverted humps in a macro bump and run formation.

SO USA PEAKED IN APRIL AND CHINA PEAKED IN NOVEMBER.CHINA ALSO RALLIED IN APRIL 2010 AND 2011 TO COMPLETE THE 2 SMALLER INVERTED HUMPS IN THE BUMP AND RUN FORMATION.

IT AINT BY LUCK THAT THIS TIME SP500 PEAKED ALSO IN APRIL 2013 AT 1597.AS MY TARGET OF SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IS 3500 BY NOVEMBER 2013,THIS MEANS THAT NOW CHINA AND HK WILL HAVE HIGHER PEAKS IN NOVEMBER 2013 THAN THE APRIL COUNTERPARTS AND SP500 WILL BE THE ONE TO HIT DOUBLE TOP AT 1597 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 1650 MAX in NOVEMBER 2013.

28th april 2013,SUNDAY-sp500 IS IN RETRACEMENT.ONCE SP500 BREAKS 1552,THERE WILL COME A EXTRA 4WEEKS OF CONTINUOUS DROP TO 1437-1460

AS I SAID BEFORE,THIS IS A RETRACEMENT NOT A CORRECTION.MY DEFINITION FOR RETRACEMENTS IS UP TO 15%,although i know THE TEXTBOOK DEFINITION IS 10% OR MORE IS DEFINED AS A CORRECTION.I EXTEND THE DEFINITION OF CORRECTION TO PREVENT WHIPSAWS at THE 10% MARK.

SP500 PATTERN IS VERY CLEAR.I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG SP500 WILL TAKE TO REACH 1552,MAYBE NEXT WEEK??BUT AFTER IT HIT 1552 WILL COME A EXTRA 4 WEEKS OF CONTINUOUS DROP  TO 1437 MAX.

HANGSENG'S FATE WILL SEE WHETHER CHINA RISES IN THE WEEKS OF SP500 TO 1552.IF CHINA STILL IS LACKLUSTER,THEN THE MAXIMUM OF HANGSENG WILL BE 22700,THEN HANGSENG WILL CREATE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 21400s.

IF CHINA RISES IN THE WEEKS OF SP500 DROPPING TO 1552,THEN HANGSENG TARGET WILL BE RISING TO NEAR 23100,HITTING THE DIAGONAL DOWNTRENDLINE FROM 24988 TO 24468,23331,as to will tumble to 22000 will depend on shanghai surge will be weak or strong.

AS YOU ALL KNOW FROM MY PREVIOUS THREADS,MY VIEW IS THAT SHANGHAI WILL RISE IN THE NEXT 2-3WEEKS



 

26th april 2013-to you losers out there who said"aiyah,i am poor,i cannot afford to be like you buy stocks at low,AS I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG I WILL BE TIED".TO THESE PEOPLE,I SAID "FUCK YOU"

STOP FINDING EXCUSES NOT TO INVEST AT LOWS!
TO DEBUNK THIS FUCKING IRRITATING MYTH,I,NUS GRADUATE IN MATHS,MAKE MYSELF UNEMPLOYED.

ONLY WHEN I AM UNEMPLOYED,MY MONEY DOES NOT COME EASILY AS THOSE WORKING CLASS,THEN I KNOW HOW TO CHERISH OPPORTUNITES IN STOCKS/PROPERTIES/GOLD,ETC.

WHO ARE THE ONES WHO ALWAYS GET TIED IN STOCKS/PROPERTIES/GOLD AT HIGHS???THE FUCKING MAJORITY.WHO ARE THE MAJORITY?THE WORKING CLASS.REMEMBER THOSE WHO BOUGHT SG/HK PROPERTY AT 1996 HIGHS HAVE TO WAIT TILL 2010S TO BREAK EVEN.WHAT ABOUT THOSE WHO BOUGHT NOL AT $5,COSCO AT $7??WHAT ABOUT THOSE WHO BOUGHT GOLD AT A FUCKING $1800??PEOPLE LIKE ME,WHO HAS NO STEADY INCOME,CHERISH ASSETS AT ALL TIME LOWS OR DEAD IN A COFFIN AFTER PLUNGING.MAJORITY WHO ARE ALSO THE WORKING CLASS,DO NOT KNOW HOW TO CHERISH THESE CHANCES.THE MORE THEY ARE AFRAID THEIR MONEY WILL BE TIED UP AT LOWS,THE MORE THEIR MONEY WILL BE TIED UP AT HIGHS,AND BEING TIED UP AT HIGHS WILL TAKE NEAR DECADES TO BREAKEVEN.LOOK AT SP500 2000 TO 2007,SG/HK PROPERTIES FROM 1996-2011.

MY PHILOSOPHY IS FUCKING SIMPLE:GET TIED UP AT LOWS IS MUCH MORE SHORTER TIME DURATION THAN GET TIED UP AT HIGHS.
AND I FUCKINGLY CANNOT AFFORD THE TIE UP LIKE THE WORKING CLASS-SIMPLY BECAUSE I AM NOT A FUCKING WHINING LOSER.MONEY COMES EASY,MONEY GOES EASY.

p.s-what happen to my cousin who rejected my advice on buying stocks in CHINESE NEW YEAR 2009??HE COULD HAVE EARNED AT LEAST DOUBLE IF HE LISTENED TO ME.I DO NOT MIND HIM NOT LISTENING TO ME,BUT HE ACTUALLY DID A MORE STUPID THING-BUYING A CONDOMINIUM AFTER CONDO PRICES HAVE SURGED 50% TO 100% IN 2011.AFTER HE BOUGHT,CAME THE PROPERTY COOLING MEASURES.----I ALREADY SAID JUST NOW"THOSE WHO COOK UP A THOUSAND REASONS AND MYTHS TO AVOID BUYING AT LOWS WILL SOMEHOW GET THEMSELVES TIED UP AT HIGHS!!".

life is full of ironies--THE MORE YOU FEAR BEING TIED UP,THE HIGHER THE PROBABILITY AND THE LONGER THE DURATION YOU WILL BE TIED UP"

ARTICLE TO SUPPORT HERD MENTALITY:
How Much Do MRT Stations Determine Singapore Condo Property prices?
Posted by Angeline Bay | September 10th, 2011 | Published in Money

How far do prices of homes vary according to their proximity to major transport bases? See what City Developments’ property market analysis based on the location of homes near MRT Stations has to say. Do other developers feel the same way?

Kwek Leng Beng, executive chairman of major property player City Developments, has a few things to say of cost trends within the Singapore market. Within the next six several weeks, he stated, designers may adjust downwards launch prices of non-public housing projects that aren’t situated near MRT stations by about 5 percent if they would like to move models, among greater buyer caution.

However, developers of projects that are well located, close to MRT stations, should be able to hold prices or even marginally increase them by 1-3 per cent, he said. ‘I believe the market will not crash unless of course the worldwide scenario is so bad.’ He made these comments after announcing CDL’s second-quarter results. The group posted a 17 per cent year-on-year increase in net profit to $220.9 million for Q2 2011. Besides how acutely the economic situation in the US and Europe pans out and its impact on Singapore, price movements for private homes will also depend on local competition. ‘If in the vicinity, there are three or four developers selling at the same time, you will definitely have to consider reducing the price if you want to get out earlier.’

Requested concerning the impact of the potential recession here triggered by occasions in america and Europe on Singapore condo prices, Mr Kwek stated: ‘I don’t believe that it’ll impact a great deal unless of course rates of interest feel the roof . . . Right now, the marketplace is filled with liquidity, rates of interest are extremely low, and there’s deficiencies in alternative opportunities.

Just like in any other major city, proximity to train and bus stations may make a significant difference in home sale and rental prices. HDB flat in Commewealth Crescent. Go Ahead And Take Clift, for instance. The Clift is really a 99-years leasehold apartment development situated at 15 McCallum Street, Singapore 069045, in District 01, minutes walk to Tanjong Pagar MRT Station.

He also said he does not envisage an oversupply in 2013-2014 as predicted by some analysts, as ‘I don’t think (the government) will come up with new measures to destabilise the market’ given the uncertain environment, following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of US credit rating and the worsening of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. ‘I think the government is more concerned about public housing and the new (National Development) Minister has taken positive action,’ Mr Kwek added.

He said global cooperation among governments as seen during the Lehman debacle can once again help to stabilise markets – although ‘this time I believe it will take a little bit longer … it is a little bit harder’. ‘Everything is overblown. That is human nature. Just like property, the higher property prices go up, the more you want to buy, I guarantee you. The lower it goes, the more scared you are,’ he quipped.

As the Republic could see a technical recession, ‘I think Singapore is within good stead provided we do not disturb the federal government an excessive amount of by worrying (a lot). If you need to pay attention to a lot of complaints, then you definitely dwindle centered on what for you to do …

Hopefully government will pay attention to constructive suggestions and feedback and simultaneously getting heard so (much from) a lot of people, it has to exercise, as previously, its leadership quality. We can’t please everybody’.

If we continue to welcome foreigners … and we become more prosperous because government and private sectors work closely, there are a lot of gains to be had. But if we keep on arguing …. we cannot progress very much. We have to be realistic and pragmatic.’ He also stressed the importance of continuing to attract businesses from overseas to anchor in Singapore.

25th april 2013--I love to buy "laying dead in coffin" good assets

my 3 previous encounters with dead BUT good assets.

1)I bought a singapore ORCHARD road commercial shop in 2005,when not many are interested in buying properties yet due to MAJORITY ARE HERD OF COWS.I hold for 2years,still lay in coffin,never go up or go down.THEN IN 2007,CAME THE CRISIS,WHEREBY SINGAPORE FOLLOWED USA TO CUT INTEREST RATES AND THIS FUELLED THE SURGE


2)usdyen lay in coffin at 70s for 1+year before SURGING TO 100 NOW.

3)shipping stocks AND china MAIN INDEX NOW ARE THE LAST THAT HAVE NOT SURGED UP YET.SHIPPING AND CHINA MAIN INDEX MOVE IN TANDEM.I WAS EVEN JOKING WITH MY FRIEND THAT WHICH ONE WILL SURGE FIRST?USDYEN OR SHIPPING STOCKS??IN THE END IT WAS USDYEN SURGE FIRST.
I HAVE NOT INVESTED IN USDYEN DUE TO MY MASSIVE INVESTMENTS IN SHIPPING STOCKS.I LOVE GOOD STOCKS THAT ARE DEAD DUE TO THE CYCLICAL NATURE OF THE INDUSTRY AND NOT THE COMPANY ITSELF.I LOVE GOOD PROPERTIES IN ORCHARD ROAD BUT I KNOW MUST BUY IT WHEN IT IS DEAD.

EVERYTHING HAS A CYCLE.THERE IS NO POINT CHASING.ONLY PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO HAS NO JOB,NO STABLE SALARY,CHERISH GOOD OPPORTUNITIES..BTW, I AM A NUS ECONOMICS AND MATHEMATICS GRADUATE,AND I CHOOSE TO BE UNEMPLOYED

16th april 2013- please look at my 12th april2013 post about shanghai composite bottoming out in the right inverted shoulder at 2160 OR 2180.TODAY,SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DID WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED!!

today,16th april 2013 shanghai composite lowest 2165,closed 2195!!

16th april 2013-I POST EVIDENCE TO SAY WHY ANALYSTS ARE ALWAYS LATE

u draw a diagonal uptrend line from october 2008 lowest point and connect to all the lowest points ,AND YOU WILL SEE GOLD ACTUALLY DID BREAK DOWN IN APRIL 2012,AND ACTUALLY DID GIVE GOLD BULLS A SECOND CHANCE TO GET OUT BEFORE THE BIG PLUNGE IN APRIL 2013 BY RETESTING THE UPTRENDLINE IT ACTUALLY BROKE DOWN FROM,IN SEPT2012!!!

IF ANALYSTS ARE SO EARLY IN PREDICTING,THEY WOULD HAVE STARTED DOWNGRADING EITHER IN APRIL 2012 OR LATEST BY SEPT2012!!YET WE SEE ANALYSTS ONLY STARTED DOWNGRADING IN FEB2013!!!

ANALYSTS ARE LATE IN BEING BEARISH,LATE IN BEING BULLISH!!

1)    Goldman Sachs Turns Bearish on Gold, Slashes '13, '14 Forecasts

By Matt Egan

Published April 10, 2013

FOXBusiness

• 
  Reuters

Pointing to forecasts for stronger U.S. economic growth later this year, longtime gold bull Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its price targets on the precious metal on Wednesday, warning prices could tumble below $1,300 an ounce by the end of 2014.
The Wall Street heavyweight not only told investors to close their long gold position, Goldman is now recommending a short COMEX gold position as one of its top trades.
“While there are risks for modest near-term upside to gold prices should U.S. growth continue to slow down, we see risks to current prices as skewed to the downside as we move through 2013,” Goldman analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a note to clients.
Marking Goldman’s second downgrade in six weeks, the analysts cut their average 2013 gold price forecast to $1,545 from $1,610 and their 2014 average to $1,350 from $1,490. Goldman also set a $1,450 year-end target for 2013 and a $1,270 year-end target for next year.
Goldman cited gold’s “recent lackluster price action” even after the deposit bail-in debacle in Cyprus as well as its economists’ forecasts for U.S. growth to accelerate later this year to above-trend pace, supporting U.S. real rates.
“While we may be end up too early in entering this trade, we prefer that to being late given our belief that the skew to current prices is to the downside,” Goldman wrote.
The downgrade helped weigh on the metals market on Wednesday. Gold dropped $10.00 a troy ounce, or 0.63%, to $1,576.70, putting the precious metal on pace to extend its slump of more than 5% so far this year. Gold has retreated over 16% since hitting record closing highs of $1,880.70 in August 2011.
Goldman advised clients to close their long COMEX gold position that the bank first initiated on October 11, 2010 back when gold traded at about $1,345 a troy ounce.
On a longer-term front, Goldman said its price forecast for 2017 and beyond remains at $1,200. “While higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next bond cycle, this is likely several years away,” the firm warned.

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2013/04/10/goldman-sachs-lowers-gold-forecast-for-2013-2014/#ixzz2QdjPJmNX

2) 

Gold Gets Another Downgrade This Time From SocGen

April 11, 2013

By Jacob Wolinsky

inShare1

Gold received a sell recommendation from Goldman Sachs yesterday. ‘Surprisingly‘, SocGen is also lowering their price target for the precious metal. SocGen has decreased their gold price estimate from $1,800 to $1,500/oz and silver price from $30 to $27/oz, to bring our models into line with SocGen’s commodity team’s new (bearish) forecasts for gold, and to a lesser extent silver, prices.

Price headwinds

Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar on US recovery

SocGen economists believe that 2013 will see an inflection point on growth in the US Global Economic Outlook – Test-driving the recovery. Signs of recovery have already ignited the debate on QE exit. This matters to gold because an important driver of investor gold behaviour is the perception of inflation risks, and the precious is generally seen as a good hedge against the debasement of fiat money.

Throughout the period of QE inflation has remained low (and US inflation has been trending lower since late 2011), and now SocGen believes we are beginning to see the economic conditions that justify an end to the Fed’s QE, while the US dollar has started trending higher. It seems unlikely that investors would want to add to their long gold positions in this context. If so, the gold price should trend lower as the physical gold market is seriously oversupplied without continued large-scale investor buying. SocGen forecasts the price to fall below $1400 by year end and to continue to trend lower next year.

The central scenario assumes continued QE out to the final months of 2013, albeit at a slower pace in the fourth quarter. And once the Fed signals an end or scaling down of bond purchases Treasury yields are likely to bottom out and begin their gradual normalisation. The metal has no yield, so the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases with a decline in real interest rates and increases with a rise in rates. If history provides guidance, returning to positive ‘real rates’ would create significant headwinds for gold.