SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS
THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF
PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU
SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations
UPTRENDS-
1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend
2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.
3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.
4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.
5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.
6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.
7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.
8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.
9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.
10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,
CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS
1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500
2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks
3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------
eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed
eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..
1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065
-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010
-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge
-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010
2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.
-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011
-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370
-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders
-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074
THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG
LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN
1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"
2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"
3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.
4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS
5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT
6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF
I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!
1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??
GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.
19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK
3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK
4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????
N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
10jan2012-LOOK AT HOW STRONG THE SHANGHAI RALLY IS.REMEMBER I SAID APRIL OR NOV/DEC2012,SHANGHAI WILL HIT 3000-3200??
OF COURSE I HOPE FOR APRIL 2012 HIT 3000-3200,BUT THEN AGAIN,I AM ALSO SCARED OF A FAILED BREAKOUT(2ND TIME).IF 3200 CLEARS,THEN I DARE SAY ITS ALL THE WAY UP to 4000.
IF failed breakout again,THEN LETS GO STEP BY STEP
Monday, January 9, 2012
9JAN2012-THANK YOU ALL FOR THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN VIEWERSHIP!!in 9days of 2012,A MASSIVE 550!!I WILL CONTINUE TO REVEAL THE SECRETS BEHIND THE STOCKMARKET
so far im still spot on-
1) sp500 still in uptrend SHARESWIZARD TARGET-end jan-starting week feb2012-sp500 close 1380
2)hsi to end same time,end jan -early feb 20K-20.6K
3)shanghai to rally from 2130 all the way to 2800s in a 900+,400+,900+,400+,900+ drop pattern started in august 2009.
NOVICE TRADERS ONLY STUDY THAT CHART IF THEY WANT TO BUY THAT STOCK,THAT IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH.THAT IS WHY MANY TRADERS QUIT TRADING FULLTIME AFTER 1,2 YEARS.
u must study the INTRICATE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE 3 BROTHERS,HSI,SHANGHAI,SP500.
when A TECHNICAL PERSON QUIT FULLTIME TRADING,IT ISNT THAT CHARTS FAILED HIM,IT IS HE DIDNT INVESTIGATE HARD ENOUGH.
WHY SHOULD I BURN MY WEEKENDS TRYING TO DIG OUT SECRETS IN CHARTS?BECAUSE I LOVE MY JOB.I LOVE BEING A FULLTIME TRADER.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
8JAN2012-SEE THE UNCANNY SIMILARITY OF CHARTS BETWEEN 2 DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS!!I ASK YOU ALL AGAIN-DO NEWS MATTER??DO FUCKAMENTALS MATTER??
8jan2012-i post you all some past HILARIOUS ANAL-yst recommendations OF now suspended companies
Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion
China Sky Chemical Fibre
09.27.07, 6:00 PM ET
China, textiles
Latest 12 Months
Sales Operating Income Net Income Market Value
$287 million $90 million $65 million $1,015 million
Latest 12 Months Valuation Three-Year Average
Price/Sales 3.5 Sales Growth 72%
EV/EBITDA 1 7 EPS Growth 62%
Price/Earnings 16
Debt/Equity 0 Return On Equity 40%
China Sky Chemical Fibre Co Ltd. The Group's principal activities are manufacturing chemical fibres, high-end nylon fibres, such as nylon Full Drawn Yarn and nylon High Oriented Yarn. The products are used by manufacturer of textiles and fabrics for making apparels such as high-end sportswear and casual wear, high-end lingerie and undergarments, jackets, pants and silk-like clothing. In addition to the applications in the textile and garment manufacturing industries, the products have also been applied by their customers for other commercial uses in the manufacture of home furnishing articles, such as curtains, table-cloth, upholstery and decorative materials, shoes, bags, luggage, umbrellas, tents, ribbons and nylon webbings. The Group operates in China.
All figures are in U.S. dollars.
Data as of September 7
NA: Not available; NM: Not meaningful.
1Enterprise value (market value of common plus net debt) divided by earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Source: Worldscope via FactSet Research Systems; Forbes
2) Merrill's 'buy' call lifts China Sky 4.5%
09 October 06 The Business Times by Jean Chua SHARES of China Sky Chemical Fibre went up 4.5 per cent after brokerage Merrill Lynch initiated coverage of the nylon-fibre maker on Friday with a target of $1.82, a 62.5 per cent upside on the current price.
The stock jumped seven cents to open at $1.19 on Friday as Merrill Lynch issued a 'Buy' recommendation on the company.
Analyst Eddy Loh said China Sky, which was trading at 6.3 times forward earnings at $1.12 the day before the report was issued, had a lot of room for growth as the market was vast.
'Nylon fibre consumption in China is expected to continue growing at more than 15 per cent per annum,' Mr Loh wrote.
'As the largest producer, China Sky is well positioned to outpace industry growth by grabbing market share from both foreign imports (sic) and domestic consumption.
'The fact that China still imports one-third of its nylon fibre requirements suggests there is more room for domestic producers such as China Sky to grow.'
China Sky's net profit inched up 3.2 per cent to 87.7 million yuan (S$ 17.6 million) in the second quarter, as revenue grew 4.7 per cent to 315.3 million yuan. Its gross profit stayed flat at 105 million yuan, but costs and expenses fell 39.6 per cent to 5.3 million yuan.
Mr Loh said that the Q2 results were 'disappointing' but on a full-year basis, it estimates that the company can make 490 million yuan on revenue of 1.78 billion yuan this year. Next year, it could make 634 million yuan on sales of 2.29 billion yuan.
Besides the growth of the industry, China Sky could acquire its competitors, which could help it break into new markets, Mr Loh said. 'These prospects have not been factored into our forecast.'
In fact, China Sky has already identified some potential acquisitions and may make an offer in 2007, Mr Loh said.
China Sky is now the largest nylon-fibre producer in China, after it added capacity in June, Mr Loh said. It also has a solid research and development team, and provides good technical support to its customers, the weavers.
The third quarter should be a good one for China Sky, when it may make 50-60 per cent more than it did in the same quarter last year.
There are risks, of course, to China Sky's growth. The company had been able to pass on some of the increase in raw material prices to its customers, but if nylon prices go too high, it might not be able to go on doing so.
Its plans to increase capacity will also mean that it will have negative free cash flow for financial years 2006-2007. 'As China Sky may acquire or invest in new capacities, there may be a risk that free cash flow remains negative for 2008-2009,' Mr Loh wrote.
The company had cash of 300 million yuan at the end of the second quarter.
Other risks include 'unexpected decline in selling prices, developments affecting nylon usage in China and execution failures'.
3)BROKER CALL - Singapore-listed China Sky 'buy' after Q1 results - Kim Eng
13 May 2008
Xinhua Newsfeed
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - Kim Eng Securities said it maintained its "buy" recommendation and target price of 2.21 sgd for China Sky Chemical Fibre Co, after the company's first quarter earnings fell in line with expectations.
The Singapore-listed company's earnings rose 16 pct to 163.4 mln yuan on higher revenue from increased capacity and lower operating expenses.
But compared to fourth quarter 2007 earnings, profit fell 8.8 pct on a 1.7 pct decrease in revenue.
"We reckon the weaker revenue could be due to seasonality while higher tax rates eroded earnings," Kim Eng said in a note to investors.
(1 usd = 7 yuan, 1.36 sgd)
shburo@xfn.com
4)China Sky, Fibrechem get 'buy' calls
25 October 06 The Business Times UOB-Kay Hian has issued 'buy' calls on chemical fibre manufacturers China Sky Chemical Fibre and Fibrechem Technologies, saying that the two companies are not direct competitors as they cater to different segments of a fast-growing market.
In a research report this month, analyst Chong Mean Phil said Fibrechem makes products such as nylon-polyester bi-component fibre and sea-island short fibre, while China Sky makes high-end products like nylon full drawn yarn (FDY) and nylon high oriented yarn (HOY).
'Nylon is a more expensive chemical fibre than polyester, in terms of both raw materials and products prices,' Mr Chong said. 'We see nylon as a niche product and polyester as a mass market product. Judging from the number of players in the market, the data suggest that the polyester market is a bigger but more competitive and fragmented market.'
'In addition, China is quite self-sufficient in polyester with imports at 2 per cent of domestic production level. In fact, China has become a net exporter of polyester for 2005 and 2006.'
This also means that China Sky is a market leader, with close to 10 per cent market share based on its annual production capacity of 72,000 tonnes. Fibrechem has less than one per cent market share and is just one of the many players in the polyester market, Mr Chong said.
However, Fibrechem is no longer making merely standard polyester fibre, and has moved into producing specialty nylon polyester bi-component fibre and synthetic leather, for which it is market leader.
Bi-component fibre makes up 35 per cent of Fibrechem's revenue, and synthetic leather, 24 per cent.
Mr Chong estimates that earnings per share of both China Sky and Fibrechem have a compound annual growth rate of 30-40 per cent. He said investors could see a higher return on equity for Fibrechem because of a more 'efficient capital structure'.
'This is due to the use of debt or convertibles, which has a lower cost compared to pure equity,' he said. 'China Sky relies solely on equity to fund its operations, and there is certainly room for capital management to achieve a more optimal capital structure.'
China Sky's ROE is seen at 33.4 per cent for 2006 and 31.7 per cent for 2007, while Fibrechem's is seen at 32.8 and 34.2 per cent, respectively.
For China Sky's ROE to improve, it needs to use a lower cost instrument or increase its dividend payout, Mr Chong said.
'Both China Sky and Fibrechem ... serve different markets for different products and, hence, are not in direct competition,' Mr Chong said. 'We believe that the respective market segments are big enough to accommodate these two companies and the opportunities therein are plentiful.'
UOB Kay Hian has a 12-month price target of $1.58 for China Sky and $2.02 for Fibrechem. The stocks closed at $1.28 and $1.62 respectively on Monday.
THEN SUDDENLY
SGX applies for court order on China Sky audit
04:47 AM Jan 07, 2012SINGAPORE - The Singapore Exchange (SGX) has applied for a court order to force textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre to appoint a special auditor.
The application was made against China Sky and its directors after the S-chip company on Thursday missed a deadline set by the SGX to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain transactions.
"Despite every opportunity offered, China Sky persists in its non-compliance with the directive. SGX, has therefore, escalated the matter to the High Court," the bourse operator said late yesterday.
The SGX had directed China Sky in November to appoint a special auditor to investigate certain financial dealings, including a failed land deal and repairs and maintenance costs.
But in a rare display of defiance by a listed company, China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and that the SGX had not provided the justification for issuing the directive.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline to comply with its directive by Thursday, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The SGX said in its statement that it has also applied to the High Court to get China Sky to appoint at least two independent directors to replace those who had resigned on Thursday.
MY COMMENTS:--MUCH MORE,JUST GOOGLE AND U WILL FIND MUCH MORE COCK FUCKAMENTALS.I JUST BASED ON ONE LOGIC:IF THESE COMPANIES ARE SO GOOD AS THEY CLAIMED,WHY CANT THEY LIST IN THEIR OWN HOMELAND 1ST BEFORE GOING OVERSEAS??????
ONE SIMPLE QUESTION FROM A THEN 27YEAR OLD MAN,ME, IN 2006 ENABLED ME TO HAVE SUCH VISION THAT I DONT NEED TO WAIT FOR CRISES THEN I WAKE UP.BY THEN IT WILL BE TOO LATE.WHY MATURE ADULTS,MANY ARE MUCH OLDER THAN ME,DONT HAVE THE VISION????????????????????????????????
PLEASE DO QUIT THE STOCKMARKET IF YOU MUST WAIT FOR THINGS TO HAPPEN THEN U SEE THRU.THE STOCKMARKET ISNT FOR YOU.I AM AN ACTIVE TRADER FOR 9YEARS,YET I HAVE NOT EVEN BEEN HIT BY ONE SUSPENDED COMPANY YET NONE FULLTIME TRADERS CAN GET HIT BY NOT ONE,NOT TWO,SOME PEOPLE I KNOW GET HIT BY AT LEAST 5 SUSPENDED COMPANIES.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES WHY.INNOCENT PEOPLE SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET.INNOCENT PEOPLE WHO BELIEVED THE WORLD BEHAVE TO UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC MODELS,FUCKA-FUNDAMENTALS P/E,DCF VALUATION MODELS,BLAH BLAH SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET TOO.I AM ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR 9YEARS IN THE TREACHEROUS STOCKMARKET,YET I REMAIN UNSCATHED.LOSE MONEY YES,BUT NOT BECOME ZERO.
I ALSO BOUGHT BEFORE MANY NOW SUSPENDED COMPANIES DURING 2006-2009,WHY I WAS NEVER HIT???????BECAUSE I KNOW THESE CON-PANIES YOU CANT HOLD THEM FOR LONGTERM INVESTING.
I,A 27YEAR OLD GUY IN 2006 EVEN CAN SEE THRU BEFORE ALL THE S-CHIP SCANDALS CAME OUT AFTER 2008.
IF SHARESWIZARD CAN HAVE SUCH VISION,SO CAN YOU.
THANK YOU
Saturday, January 7, 2012
7jan2012-ANOTHER FUNNY NEWS-thistime from usa!
Published: Friday, 6 Jan 2012
1:44 PM ET Text Size By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money & Halftime
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investors yanked money out of U.S. equity mutual funds for a ninth-consecutive week despite a bullish 2012 outlook from Wall Street and a December rally that’s carried over into the New Year.
U.S. funds—not including ETFs —lost $1.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Lipper FMI. This follows a $1.7 billion outflow in the previous week. Investors put money into taxable and municipal bond funds instead, the data showed.
“Trends remained largely intact as we moved into the first week of 2012,” said Daniel Fannon, a financial analyst with Jefferies, who cited the data in a note to clients.
The S&P 500 [.SPX 1277.81 -3.25 (-0.25%) ] began 2012 with a 1.6 percent surge on Tuesday and is up 2 percent for the week. A better-than-expected jobs report added to the bullish tone Friday.
Wall Street strategists, on average, expect the U.S. benchmark to increase by 7 percent this year, according to a consensus calculation by Goldman Sachs. The market seers generally cite a strong domestic economy overshadowing the credit crisis in Europe. But apparently, their retail clients aren’t listening.
The continued outflows mean “folks set a mental level, thinking ‘please God if we ever get to this point, I will take the money and run,’” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com. “It also means we could have more people chasing the market higher if this move hits 1300 in the S&P 500.”
The index is up 19 percent from its intraday low for 2011 hit three months ago and was approaching 1282 in trading Friday.
U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year
QBy Charles Stein - Jan 6, 2012 1:00 PM GMT+0800
U.S. stock mutual funds that invest in domestic equities had their second-biggest redemptions last year as record market swings sent investors to the perceived safety of bond funds.
Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends.
Withdrawals accelerated in May and June amid concern that weaker European economies would not be able to repay their debts. They peaked in July as Congress debated whether to lift the nation’s debt ceiling. Those events, as well as lingering memories of the 2008 selloff and a subpar U.S. economic recovery, may all have contributed to investor discontent, said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. interview.
“A lot of people remember they got burned so they are more sensitive to bad news than they were before,” Kinnel said in a telephone interview.
‘Bear the Pain’
Volatility increased in the third quarter as the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at Standard & Poor’s and concern about the European debt crisis intensified. The S&P 500 moved 2.4 percent (SPX) on average between its intraday lows and highs, the most for any quarter since 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alternated between gains and losses exceeding 400 points on four straight days in August, the longest such streak ever.
“Investors just can’t bear the pain, which sets the stages for an unwillingness to take risk,” said Christopher Blum, chief investment officer for behavioral finance at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York.
The redemptions from domestic stock funds have come from managers who pick equities in an attempt to beat market benchmarks. Actively-managed funds saw withdrawals from 2007 through 2010 while index funds attracted money in each of those years, Morningstar data show. The same pattern held through the first 11 months of 2011.
“People are convinced that active management has failed to deliver,” Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund consultant based in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said in a telephone interview.
Leaving Active Funds
Funds that invest in international stocks attracted about $6 billion last year, ICI data show, down from $58 billion in 2010. Taxable bond funds saw an estimated $141 billion in deposits, below the $230 billion they attracted the previous year. Municipal bond funds suffered withdrawals of about $12 billion. In 2010 they had $11 billion in deposits.
The ICI has released monthly flow data through November and weekly numbers through Dec. 28, which may be revised. Final numbers for December will be published at the end of January, according to the ICI.
Domestic equity funds captivated the American public in the 1990s, thanks to a stock market that rose at an annual pace of 18 percent a year and the well-publicized success of stock pickers such as Peter Lynch of Fidelity Investments. Lynch guided Fidelity’s Magellan Fund to gains of 29 percent a year from 1977 to 1990 compared with 15 percent annual returns for the S&P 500 index.
In the past 10 years the S&P 500 returned 2.9 percent annually, including reinvested dividends. Investors suffered double-digit losses in 2001, 2002 and 2008.
Better news on the U.S. economy and a resolution of Europe’s debt problems might inspire investors to begin a return to U.S. stock funds, said Blum. In the meantime those investors could be missing good opportunities.
“There is a risk to not owning equities,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel in Boston at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
MY COMMENTS-YEAH!!ISNT THIS FUNNY?LOOK AT THE TIMING THE AVERAGE RETARD SOLD STOCKS-
WHEN DID THE AVERAGE RETARD "EJACULATED" ALL THEIR STOCK HOLDINGS OUT?IN JULY 2011!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
IF THEY HAVE READ MY BLOG,THEY WILL HAVE KNOWN IN FEB/MARCH 2011,I WAS VERY BEARISH AND WAS LOOKING FOR A 20% FALL IN STI AND WORLD MARKETS.DID I WAIT TILL JULY2011 TO "EJACULATE"?DID I WAIT TILL BAD NEWS IS ALL OUT THEN I "EJACULATE" MY STOCK HOLDINGS????
I "EJACULATED" ALL MY STOCK HOLDINGS IN FEB2011!!!!!!!HAHAHAHA THIS NEWS IS SO FUNNY.PLEASE READ MY FEB2011 POSTS FOR PROOF I WAS DAMN BEARISH ON THE STOCKMARKETS.I SAID ONLY FOOLS BUY FROM ME IN FEB2011.hahahahahaha
THE STOCKMARKET IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY AS BUSINESS.SOMEBODY HAS TO LOSE IN ORDER TO MAKE SOMEBODY WIN.STOCKMARKET,PROPERTY MARKET,BUSINESS MARKETS ARE ALL ZERO SUM GAMES.WAKE UP.RECENTLY SO MANY BOOKSHOPS IN SINGAPORE CLOSE DOWN,EG. BORDERS,PAGEONE.WHY?THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF THE BOOKSTORES BECAUSE NOW THERE ARE E-BOOKS.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES THIS SIMPLE QUESTION-WHY ARE WITHDRAWALS SO HUGE,2ND HIGHEST,BEHIND 2008,YET SP500 REMAIN FLAT FOR 2011??WHY???WHO HAS BEEN EATING UP THE "GOODIES"?
THE AVERAGE RETARD HAS ALREADY LEFT THE MARKET,NOW IT IS THE TIME TO PUSH UP,THEN AFTER STOCKMARKET SOARED,THEN THEY WILL RETURN AND BE TIED ANOTHER 20YEARS!!!!then they will complain again.PLEASE DO NOT RE ENTER THE STOCKMARKET AGAIN.
THE AVERAGE RETARD DESERVED TO GET BURNT IN THE STOCKMARKET.PATTERNS,CYCLES REPEAT AND REPEAT BUT AS AN ADULT, A FULLY MATURED ADULT,WHO LIVED SO MANY YEARS ON EARTH YET CAN FAIL TO LEARN REPEATED PATTERNS DESERVE TO LOSE.HOW CAN ANYONE,A FULLY GROWN MATURE ADULT, MISS OUT THAT 2009 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2003,2010 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2004,2011 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2005 IN SP500.
if you cant see thru cycles, PLEASE QUIT THE STOCKMARKET AND NEVER RETURN.the stockmarket DOES NOT need your SMALL money to go up.the stockmarket can go up "ON ITS OWN".
TO THOSE WHO SELL IN may/july2011-YOU MUST HAVE BOUGHT SOMEWHERE IN 1999-2000,TIED UP FOR 10+ YEARS,NEVER EARN A SINGLE PROFIT.THEN WHEN SP500 RETURNED TO YOUR SAME 1200s levels,u sell ALL and VOW NEVER TO RETURN TO THE STOCKMARKET. you as an american,you have put warren buffett's teachings to shame!i know warren buffet is not 100% right BUT investing is simply "BUY WHEN MAJORITY IS AFRAID,SELL WHEN MAJORITY ARE GREEDY".
IT IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY MARKET.please look at china property now.dead as a mouse.a lot of china people are cursing the property market for making them lose their wealth.WHY IS THAT SO?
THE AVERAGE RETARDS WILL ALWAYS BE SUCKED INTO HUGE RISES,GET TIED FOR 10-20YEARS OF FLATTISH OR LOSING MONEY YEARS THEN THEY WILL "EJACULATE" AT LOW OR SAME PRICES THAT THEY BOUGHT 10-20YEARS AGO.this cycle WILL REPEAT because this retard QUIT,THERE COMES THE NEXT RETARD!hahahahaha
THANK YOU
7jan2012-haha so funny news!!CHINA COMPANY DEFIES SGX!!CHINA COMPANY SAYS ACCOUNTS BURNT IN FIRE!!HAHA I DONT WAIT TILL THINGS TO HAPPEN THEN I CURSE.I ALREADY KNOW THESE ARE LOUSY COMPANIES WAY BACK IN 2006 BEFORE CRISIS
Friday 6 January 2012, 7:44 SGT
By Eveline Danubrata
SINGAPORE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre has failed to meet a deadline set by Singapore Exchange (SGX) to appoint a special auditor, in a rare display of defiance by a listed company in the city-state.
The SGX directed China Sky in November last year to appoint a special auditor to investigate transactions between the company and its audit committee chairman as well as a failed land acquisition in China, among other issues.
But China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. The company also released a string of responses to SGX's reprimand, including email exchanges with the bourse.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline Thursday, Jan 5, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
China Sky failed to meet the deadline and instead announced late on Thursday that three independent directors had stepped down with immediate effect due to the non-compliance with SGX's directive.
"I think this is the first time when a company is so belligerent in Singapore," said Kenneth Ng, head of CIMB Research in Singapore said on Thursday before the expiry of SGX's deadline. "An exchange has to be there to protect the interest of minority shareholders."
The Singapore bourse has stepped up its scrutiny of the accounting practices of Singapore-listed Chinese companies, known in the city-state as S-chips, after two waves of accounting problems last year and in 2008, analysts said.
"We do notice that the SGX is more proactive, especially after the recent accounting scandals," said Eric Ong, an analyst at Singapore brokerage Kim Eng.
"The SGX has requested for more information after the S-chips released their quarterly results. They also asked the companies to be more transparent."
When asked if the SGX has increased the number of queries on companies' earnings, a spokeswoman said that the bourse issues such queries in discharging its role as "a frontline regulator of listed companies."
"A query by the exchange aims to extract greater disclosure from listed companies where trends and figures may not have been explained in a manner which would allow investors to make informed decisions," the spokeswoman said.
For serious breaches of its rules, SGX will put the case before a disciplinary committee who may reprimand, fine, suspend and/or expel the member, according to its website.
Among the latest examples of accounting irregularities at S-chips, an independent investigation by NTan Corporate Advisory released last December found a total of HK$777 million ($99.9 million) in cash that had been unaccounted for at FibreChem Technologies.
Earlier this week, Sino Techfibre, which makes synthetic leather products, said it had appointed Stone Forest Corporate Advisory to carry out a valuation of the company.
An audit committee said a valuation may help to reconstruct Sino Techfibre's accounts which were lost in a fire. The company had announced last April that a fire at its offices in China had destroyed its books and financial records. (Editing by Rachel Armstrong)
THESE ARE MY COMMENTS:-WHAT DO YOU EXPECT OF SINGAPORE,GUYS?WHY DID I EXPECT FOREIGN COMPANIES WHO COME TO SGX TO LIST,MAJORITY ARE "BLOWN UP" TO BE VERY GOOD?
U JUST THINK WHAT I SAY:COMPANIES COME TO LIST IS TO GET WHAT?MONEY RIGHT?IPO MONEY RIGHT?SINGAPOREANS MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP WHERE?CPF RIGHT?CAN CPF $ BE USED TO BID IPO?CANNOT RIGHT??THEN WHERE THE BIDDING IPO MONEY COME FROM???READY CASH RIGHT??
WITH MAJORITY SINGAPOREANS' MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP IN CPF,DO YOU THINK MANY WILL HAVE ENOUGH READY CASH TO BID FOR IPOS?????????VERY GOOD COMPANIES WANT TO GET A FEW BILLIONS IN IPO,NOT A FEW MILLIONS.SO WHO WILL COME TO SINGAPORE TO LIST?-THE LOUSY COMPANIES BUT HAVE TO BE PAINTED TO BE GOOD.
THAT IS WHY I SAID IN MY BLOG LONG LONG TIME AGO THAT ALTHOUGH IM A SINGAPOREAN,I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO APPRECIATE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS,THAT IS WHY I WILL NEVER BUY HIGH END RESIDENTIAL CONDO,APARTMENTS.COMMERCIAL,THEN I WILL CONSIDER AS IT IS A DIFFERENT BALL GAME.
comments from singaporeans in forum:-
"I have previously wrote the SGX about status of China Hongx which has been suspended for some time. Till today have not heard from them.Why isn't atime limit set on them? So many "China" listed companies have discrepencies and got suspended . One wonders why SGX is still allowing those company to list in the SGX - probably to make profits for SGX at the expense of the shareholders."HELLO YUEN,IF YOU ARE READING MY BLOG NOW.IF SINGAPOREANS ARE CASH RICH,DO YOU THINK WILL HAVE SO MANY FOREIGN CON-PANIES?AFTER THE MALAYSIA SCANDAL LAST TIME,2008 IS THE START OF THE CHINA SCANDALS.
WHY SINGAPORE SGX IS WELL KNOWN TO US,FULLTIME TRADERS, AS A "REJECT","3rd tier" HUB?THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN CHINA HOMELAND,WILL LIST IN HONGKONG.THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN HONGKONG,THEN WILL COME TO SINGAPORE.IT IS A WELL KNOWN FACT THAT HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS.WHY???
YUEN,U WANT SGX TO BE STRICTER WITH FOREIGN CON-PANIES?HOW?IF SGX IS AS STRICT AS HKEX(WHERE HKERS ARE MORE CASH RICH,NO 35%CPF,NO 7%GST,NO COE,NO ERP),THEN HAHAHAHA NOBODY WANT TO LIST HERE ALREADY.HAHAHAHA COME ON WAKE UP LAH
THE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE IS WRONG IN THE 1ST PLACE.IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT HK IPOS RAISE MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE MONEY THAN SINGAPORE IPOS.
SORRY TO GUYS LIKE YUEN,THIS TREND THAT HK RAISE MUCH MUCH MORE IPO $ THAN SINGAPORE +HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS THAN SGX,WILL NEVER CHANGE,UNLESS THE SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE CHANGE 1st.
Friday, January 6, 2012
6JAN2012-MANIPULATION PATTERN OF DRYBULKS (WESTERN AND ASIAN)SEE FOR YOURSELVES HOW "COOPERATIVE" WESTERN AND ASIAN SAME SECTOR STOCKS ARE
MARCH 2009 STOCKMARKETS HIT BOTTOM.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE
MARCH 3RD,
DRYS LOWEST WAS 2.72,MAR 3RD 2009
EAGLES LOWEST WAS ALSO ON MARCH 3RD 2009-2.87
OPERATOR 1ST ENTERED MERCATOR ON 23MARCH2009,20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS HIT LOWEST.
MARCH 23 2009,DRYSHIPS WAS ALREADY AT 4.95, A RESOUNDING 80% RISE IN 20DAYS.
EAGLE WAS AT 4.19USD,A RESOUNDING 46% RISE IN ALSO 20DAYS.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS HIT PEAK.
MAY 7TH 2009-DRYSHIPS HIT PEAK AT 11.50 USD,A RESOUNDING 325% PROFIT MARGIN!!
MAY7TH 2009-EAGLES HIT PEAK AT 9.40USD,A RESOUNDING 227% PROFIT MARGIN!!
BUT MERCATOR(ASIAN DRYBULK) DIDNT HIT PEAK ON MAY 7TH 2009
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ONLY ON JUNE 3RD 2009-AT 44.5C SGD(I STILL KEEP MY CONTRACTS WITH ME TO SHOW I SOLD 800LOTS,800,000SHARES, AT THE HIGHEST 44.5C.BACK THEN I DIDNT PAY ATTENTION TO THE DRYBULKS MANIPULATION PATTERN.I ONLY KNOW STI WILL REVERSE DOWN AFTER HITTING 2700 FOR THE 1ST TIME)
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ALSO AROUND 20+ DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS BECAUSE ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE 20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN COUNTERPARTS.
THIS IS A STORY OF 1ST START 1ST FINISHED.THAT IS WHY WESTERN DRYBULKS "NEEDED " A DOUBLE TOP ALSO ON JUNE 3RD 2009(SAME TIME AS MERCATOR HIT PEAK) TO START TUMBLING DOWN WITH THE ASIAN DRYBULKS)
HOW "COOPERATIVE"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHAT THE FUCK
IF WE APPLY THIS MANIPULATION PATTERN AGAIN,U CAN SEE UP TILL TODAY,ITS THE SAME!!!WESTERN DRYBULKS 1ST STARTED REBOUNDING FROM THEIR LOWEST IN DEC28,2011 DRYS WAS AT 1.98,EAGLE WAS AT 0.88.
PLEASE NOTE:this theory has HIGH CHANCE of repeating IF DRYS AND EAGLE DONT GO BELOW THEIR DEC28 LOWEST,AND BY ADDING 20DAYS TO DEC28,WE KNOW OPERATOR WILL START TO ENTER ASIAN DRYBULKS AT AROUND JAN20s,due to the chinese new year DISRUPTIONS,it may be dragged to early february 2012.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
5JAN2012-HUAT AH!AS I SAID DAYS EARLIER,DRY BULK WILL SOAR SOON.NOW THIS NEWS COMES OUT!!GREAT "EXCUSE"!HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT!!!!!!!!
Published: Thursday, 5 Jan 2012
12:38 AM ET Text Size By: Clifford Krauss Twitter
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HOUSTON - If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.
Atta Kenare
AFP
Getty Images
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An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.
United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.
Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analysts.
A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.
Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 09:38:49 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 45880947
Can Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?Iran Oil Tension Boosts Prices: The New Libya?Global Sanctions Against Iran: How They Would Work
“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,” said Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “There is a peril of engaging in brinksmanship from all sides.”
Various Iranian officials in recent weeks have said they would blockade the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, if the United States and Europe imposed a tight oil embargo on their country in an effort to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.
That did not stop President Obama from signing legislation last weekend imposing sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank intended to make it more difficult for the country to sell its oil, nor did it dissuade the European Union from moving toward a ban on Iranian oil imports.
Energy analysts say even a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could raise the world price of oil within days by $50 a barrel or more, and that would quickly push the price of a gallon of regular gasoline to well over $4 a gallon. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Just the threat of such a development has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel in recent weeks despite a return of Libyan oil to world markets, worries of a European economic downturn and weakening American gasoline demand. Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as the political tensions intensified.
MORE FROM NYTIMES.COM
Current DateTime: 09:40:30 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 22528753
WorldPoliticsBusiness
American officials have warned Iran against violating international laws that protect commercial shipping in international waters, adding that the Navy would guarantee free sea traffic.
“If the Iranians chose to use their modest navy and antiship missiles to attack allied forces, they would see a probable swift devastation of their naval capability,” said David L. Goldwyn, former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs. “We would take out their frigates.”
More than 85 percent of the oil and most of the natural gas that flows through the strait goes to China, Japan, India, South Korea and other Asian nations. But a blockade would have a ripple effect on global oil prices.
Since Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all rely on the strait to ship their oil and natural gas exports, a blockade might undermine some of those governments in an already unstable region.
This satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
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Analysts say that a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would most likely bring China and the United States into something of an alliance to restore shipments, although Mr. Goldwyn said China would more likely resort to private diplomacy instead of military force.
Europe and the United States would probably feel the least direct impact because they have strategic oil reserves and could get some Persian Gulf oil through Red Sea pipelines. Saudi Arabia has pipelines that could transport about five million barrels out of the region, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also have pipelines with large capacities.
But transportation costs would be higher if the strait were blocked, and several million barrels of oil exports would remain stranded, sending energy prices soaring on global markets.
“To close the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of war against the whole world,” said Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former head of exploration and development at Saudi Aramco. “You just can’t play with the global economy and assume that nobody is going to react.”
This story originally appeared in The New York Times
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
3jan2012-why idiots cant use their asses to think?
1)what if a financial crisis were to hit asia,will hk/sg have the POLICY "LEEWAY" to tweak interest rates to lessen the crises severity?
2)with inflation so high,surely interest rates must rise to "combat" inflation?
3)why with interest rates lower than 2007 in 2010,why cant hk/sgp (MAJORITY) condominiums rise past their previous highs?why HDB (majority) price has been slowly creeping up?NOTHING TO DO WITH INFLUX OF FOREIGNERS.please go and look at iproperty.com.sg HDB,CONDO pricing charts.HDB PRICES STARTED TO SURGE IN Q2 2010,THE SAME TIME CONDO PRICES STARTED TO COME DOWN.im not talking INDIVIDUAL CONDO PRICES,IM TALKING AVERAGE CONDO PRICES in the whole country.
I CAN SEE COMMENTS THAT ITS THE FOREIGNERS THAT CAUSE HDB PRICES TO GO UP.then why did condo prices start to fall at same time hdb start to surge?SURELY IT CANT BE THAT COINCIDENTAL??
the smart singaporeans are already selling to the foolish singaporeans AND ARE DOWNGRADING TO HDB to PRESERVE THEIR PROFITS,IN EVENT OF A DOWNTURN.SMART PEOPLE DONT NEED LOW INTEREST RATES TO ENTICE THEM INTO BUYING.SMART PEOPLE NEED FOOLISH PEOPLE TO SELL TO.THAT IS WHY DESPITE THE LOW INTEREST RATES,AVERAGE CONDO PRICES CANT SEEM TO EXCEED 2007.
SO GOOD LUCK TO THE HARDCORE CONDO OWNERS,U ALL WONT BE HIT NOW AS SINGAPORE ECONOMY IS STILL HEALTHY,USA STOCKMARKET IS STILL GOING UP IN 2012.BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN SP500 HIT 1900,AND HSI/STI HIT NEAR 2007 MAX.
DONT EVER TELL ME STOCKMARKET HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROPERTY.IF U THINK LIKE THAT,YOUR WHOLE LIFE WILL BE FUCKED UP.I QUOTE EVIDENCE TO BACK MY STATEMENTS-
1)IF THE STI DIDNT SURGE NEAR 100% IN 5MONTHS FROM MARCH-AUGUST2009,DO YOU THINK PROPERTY WILL BE STABLE,GOING UP?
2)IF STI DIDNT FALL ONLY 20% (FROM 3300LIKE I SAID),DO YOU THINK THE ECONOMY WILL BE ONLY "SLOWING DOWN"??
EVERYTHING IS DICTATED BY THE STOCKMARKET 1st,WE FULLTIME TRADERS ALREADY KNOW WHAT IS IN HAND FOR THE ECONOMY IN NEAR FUTURE.
LIKE I SAID 2011-2014 WILL BE THE PRELUDE TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISES PART2:IT WONT HAPPEN NOW IN 2012.
ASK YOURSELVES-IF THE ECONOMY IN THE FUTURE IS SO GOOD,AND WITH SUCH LOW INTEREST RATES,SHOULD NOT HIGH END CONDO PRICES BE SURGING TO THE ROOF??THE RICH KNOW BETTER THAN THE LAYMEN.
NOTE-I AM NOT INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE HIGH END RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS I DONT EVEN WANT TO STAY HERE TILL I DIE NOR I AM ATTRACTED BY THE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS.I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE COMMERCIAL SHOPS,AND EVEN SO,I WONT BUY IT TILL THERE IS A FULL BLOWN CRISES.I HAVE BOUGHT 1 COMMERCIAL SHOP IN ORCHARD ROAD IN 2005 AND HAVE SOLD IT.HENCE I WONT TOUCH IT AGAIN.
I AM NOT LIKE THE AVERAGE RETARD BUY IN TIMES OF SOARING PRICES+LOW INTEREST RATES+GOOD ECONOMY.I BOUGHT WHEN COMMERCIAL SHOPS ARE STAGNANT IN 2005.
THERE ARE 4 LEVELS OF PROPERTY PRICING LEVELS
HIGHEST IS-1)GOOD ECONOMY,SUPER LOW RATES
2)GOOD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES
3)BAD ECONOMY,LOW RATES
4)BAD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES.
GOD BLESS THOSE FOOLS WHO RUSH IN AT THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO
3JAN2012-I KNOW USA PROPERTY WONT RECOVER SO FAST,LIKE I SAID YEARS AGO.REMEMBER STOCKMARKET 1ST,THEN JOBS THEN PROPERTIES.MAMA MIA--SO MANY MANY GEMS FOR ME TO HANDPICK 10YEARS LATER!!wait for sp500 to break out of 1580 1st then talk ABOUT USA PROPERTIES
TOP 15 USA STATES WITH UNDERWATER MORTGAGES
15.IDAHO-22.7% MORTGAGES UNDERWATER
14.MARYLAND-22.9%
13.SOUTH DAKOTA-23.8%
12.MISSISIPI-23.8%
11.LOUISIANA-23.8%
10.MAINE-23.8%
9.WYOMING-23.8%
8.WEST VIRGINIA-23.8%
7.VIRGINIA-24.3%
6.GEORGIA-27.8%
5.CALIFORNIA-35.1%
4.MICHIGAN-38.5%
3.FLORIDA-47.8%
2.ARIZONA-51.3%
1.NEVADA-69.9%
3JAN2012-THAT IS WHY I SAID-STOCK/PROPERTY ANALYSTS SHOULD NOT GET INTO A JOB BASED ON EDUCATION QUALIFICATIONS ALONE.MANY OF THEM DONT EVEN HAVE INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE.DOES A 1ST CLASS HONOURS GUARANTEE THE ANALYST WILL THINK LIKE AN INVESTOR?MINDSET NEEDS REAL EXPERIENCE NOT DEGREE SCROLL.INVESTMENT ANALYSTS SHOULD HAVE 50% OF ASSETS IN INVESTMENTS BEFORE THEY ARE FIT TO GIVE INVESTMENT ADVICE
Monday, January 2, 2012
Sunday, January 1, 2012
1jan2012-CAN FUCKAMENTALS BE TRUSTED?
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 816.79M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 4.92B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 19.23
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2012)1: 3.45
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: -1.35
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.85
Price/Book (mrq): 0.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 5.10
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 9.19
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 3.59%
Operating Margin (ttm): 30.52%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 2.50%
Return on Equity (ttm): 1.46%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 965.30M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.85
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 41.00%
Gross Profit (ttm): 832.31M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 535.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 25.22M
Diluted EPS:0.10
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -56.60%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 398.96M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.98
Total Debt (mrq): 4.50B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 113.65
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.06
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.87
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 432.99M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -1.90B
MERCATOR(asian drybulk) FUNDAMENTALS
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 143.99M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 384.83M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 10.45
Forward P/E (fye Mar 31, 2013)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.98
Price/Book (mrq): 0.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.61
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.58
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31 Mar
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 9.07%
Operating Margin (ttm): 13.59%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 1.88%
Return on Equity (ttm): 3.45%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 147.36M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 0.12
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): -16.90%
Gross Profit (ttm): 82.00M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 58.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 13.37M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.01
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -83.30%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 17.11M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Total Debt (mrq): 264.22M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 67.49
Current Ratio (mrq): 0.63
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.31
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 62.02M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -19.96M
WHY USA DRYBULK CAN CRASH FROM 131USD TO 1.90USD WHEN THE VALUATIONS,PROFITABILITY(EPS,FORWARD P/E,lesser decline in earnings),ARE CLEARLY BETTER THAN ASIAN DRYBULK,MERCATOR(0.76 TO 0.10)??CLEARLY THIS IS A USA "CRISES" WHERE USA WILL EMBARK ON A 16-20YEARS SECULAR BULL MARKET(SP500 BREAK THRU 1580).
HENCE THE LARGER PLUNGE IS "NEEDED" FOR USA DRYBULK SIMPLY BECAUSE USA STOCKMARKET AFTER THE "CRISES" HAS MORE TIME TO GO UP,WHEREAS SG/HK HASN'T A CRISES FOR NEARLY 20YEARS AFTER 1997.ASIAN DRYBULK CANT PLUNGE AS MUCH AS USA DRYBULK DESPITE BEING LOUSIER IN FUNDAMENTALS BECAUSE THIS ALREADY HINT THAT SG/HK WONT START A SECULAR BULL MARKET WITH USA,"NOT ENOUGH TIME" TO PUSH UP TILL THE NEXT ASIAN CRISES PART2.
THAT IS WHY ASIAN DRYBULK LIKE MERCATOR ONLY NEED TO GO UP 7X TO ITS ALLTIME HIGHS(0.77) WHEREAS USA DRYBULK LIKE DRYSHIPS(DESPITE BEING PROFITABLE AND BETTER VALUATIONS) HAVE TO GO UP ABOUT 65X(1.90 TO 131USD).
U JUST ASK YOURSELVES:AINT IT CLEAR WHERE THE NEXT SHOE IS GOING TO DROP?WHY MERCATOR(IN JAN2011)WAS ABOUT 0.30,3X HIGHER THAN ITS MARCH2009 LOWS,BUT DRYSHIPS WAS NEAR ITS MARCH2009 LOWS.
imagine 0.77 drop to 0.10 is serious OR 131usd to 1.90 usd is serious?INDIAN DRYBULK DROP 87% WHEREAS USA DRYBULK DROP 98%!!so from there,the rebound up to their max is very WIDE,7X COMPARED TO 65X.

















































