i dont know why big grown adults can take what the media tells you--oh crisis,oh unemployment,im not a mad bull or a mad bear BUT JUST rational

do you question yrself

1. why euro crisis excuse in the stockmarket sp500 end in august 2010?
2. why the drop just averted 20% rule of cyclical bear?
3. why sp500 can go up even with new developents of euro crisis after august 2010--

rather than shouting oh stockmarket rise is very fake BECAUSE fuckamentals dont support,BLAH BLAH BLAH.if you believe stockmarket is due to fuckamentals you are indeed a very sorry figure and a character.

1.CAN any1 explain why osim,a massage chair company can rise from 5c to 1.70 sgd from mar09 lows?technicals cant AND fundamentals cant too.
WHAT FUNDAMENTALS does a massage chair company have when the houses in asia are getting smaller?GOT ROOM TO PUT A BULKY MASSAGE CHAIR?

UTTER FUCKING CRAP.i also miss out on that stock.so what?i dont regret it.i just point out to say that stockmarket doesnt listen to fundamentals,THERE R SO MANY profitable companies in stckmkt still TRADING IN VERY LOW PE,blah blah.

SO WHAT?

why sp500 wont end cyclical bull now?

1.average bullmkt 43months(cnbc)

2.up to now,US markets JUST experience ONE correction in april to august 2010,a drop of 17percent in sp500,any drop now will just be temporary and a retracement.
stockmarkets DONT END cyclical bull after so soon,this new upleg only FIVE months old from august2010.

3.the gradient of cyclical bull tends to tally with that of the gradient of the cyclical bear.
Eg. from 2000-2003,sp500 drop 3years BUT took 4.5years to go to 2000 highs at 1580.
flatter gradient of cylical bear will TALLY with flatter gradient of next coming cyclical bull.

2007-2009mar09,the gradient of drop in the cyclical bear was much steeper than the gradient in 2000-2003,HENCE the gradient of cyclical bull is also much steeper than the gradient of cyclical bull in 2003-2007.

4.the timing---CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.why?because shorting induces panic as investors view loss more painful than gains.
2000-2003 bear mkt last 3 years
2003-2007 bull mkt last 4.5years

2007-2009 bear mkt last 1.5years(oct 2007-mar2009)
2009-201??? bullmkt last >1.5years
since mar09 was the sp500 final low,u add 1.5years u will get 2010 august WHICH IS WHY THE SP500 "NEGLECTED" the EURO CRISIS BECAUSE CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.

IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW THE SAME ADDING 1.5YEARS TO THE CYCLICAL BEAR,THIS cyclical bull from 2009-201?? MAY probably end in 2012march...

IF YOU LOOK AT THE HIDDEN SUBTLE HINTS OF THE MARKET,THE TIMING OF THE EURO CRISIS END,the surge,the ratios,the gradients,

YOU WILL KNOW ANY DROP IS JUST A RETRACEMENT,and not the end.

i dont know why average person does not have the TIME or INTEREST to do such research and loves to shoot off about economy not good,a lot of worries about unemployment,euro crisis,uncertain times,subprime "worst crisis since depression", student debt crisis,china property bubble,china inflation worries,trade wars,currency manipulation---

IF YOU ARE SO SCARED,PLEASE DONT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET...u want everything nice story for you to hear then you enter??
u mean stockmarket is being pushed up by retail players???stockmarket need to wait for laymen to have jobs,bonus,got savings to push up the market.LAYMEN no jobs,STOCKMARKET CANT GO UP??

IF YOU THINK LIKE THAT,U R INDEED A FUCKING MORON.i advise my relative to buy in feb09,BUT IN THE END,he thinks he outsmart me by saying he is willing to forego a percentage for safety.WHAT SAFETY??

in the end,sti,hangseng WENT UP near 100PERCENT IN FOUR-FIVE MONTHS...FOREGO 100%??
100percent too little,can afford to forego???

I SINCERELY ADVISE PEOPLE WITH NO GUTS TO STAY OUT OF STOCKMARKET AND PLEASE DONT COOK UP THIS N THAT TO EXPLAIN FOR YOUR OWN FAILURES.which times is NOT uncertain?you know when you are going to die?

it has been proven TIME AND AGAIN that stockmarket DOES NOT need to wait for people to have jobs,then got money to invest.i dont know why some people can leave such STUPID and IGNORANT comments like those i see in cnbc forum and i pasted below.

Stocks Are 'Underpriced': Value Investor


COMMENTS

POMO_FED_Mole | Jan 21, 2011 03:30 PM ET

With all do respect Marvin ....

This may be the riskiest time ever to go long in the Market.

I hate to bring it up ... But, weren't you the guy that self-admitedly lost an "enormous" amount of money in 2008? This might be a similar point in time in the Market - so the recommendation needs a caution: If you didn't recognize the 2008 collapse, you might be missing the potential for a similar event now. This might not be the time to go long.

Again - my apologies for being so direct - but, a lot of people's hard eqarned money might be at stake.

I love you Marvin - but, it needed to be said.
Report Abuse
Babylon1974 | Jan 21, 2011 03:32 PM ET

"Underpriced"???? He meant over priced right? Oh no, he's just another pseudo expert pumping and dumping. Just like all the people who come on CNBC.

http://gomestic.com/personal-finance/money-money-everywhere-literally/

http://bizcovering.com/investing/stock-market-crash-2-0/
Report Abuse
beachbum40 | Jan 21, 2011 03:36 PM ET

What a complete crock. Why do they put these people on TV? Aside from the obvious cheerleading, the guy has got to be drunk...or on something. Two years ago it was cheap - NOT now. Not too many people are watching anyway.
Report Abuse
beachbum40 | Jan 21, 2011 03:38 PM ET

The analysts' concensus on S&P EPS are wrong - as always.
Report Abuse
BillSFM | Jan 21, 2011 03:40 PM ET

My house for sale is underpriced too - so many potential buyers have told me so, yet haven't made an offer...
Report Abuse
Its420 | Jan 21, 2011 03:42 PM ET

The equity market is "significantly underpriced," legendary value investor Marvin Schwartz, managing director and senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC Friday.

Marvin Schwartz said this consitently over the last 10 years. Check the 10 year number on the S&P? Wierd, no? Another rag man.
Report Abuse
BillSFM | Jan 21, 2011 03:53 PM ET

May the Schwartz be with you, if you take his advice...
Report Abuse
cynic1 | Jan 21, 2011 03:56 PM ET

It warms my cackles to know that corporate profits within the S&P are humming along as the rest of the USA rots.
Report Abuse
itradelikeapro | Jan 21, 2011 04:24 PM ET

That's crazy! It's not about the market, it's about some individual performers. Even in the down market, some peformers are always there and they win! The point is, how we balance our portfolio. I personally keep some in cash, some in bonds, some in long term Stocks/Stocks Mutual Funds, and a good amount in Stock Trading (buy low, sell high).

You may visit my website and see picks at http://itradelikeapro.com

Report Abuse
tampashort | Jan 21, 2011 04:27 PM ET

Quick!! Somebody call 911, this guy has ingested too many magic mushrooms!!


ABOVE TAKEN FROM CNBC.

when i see SO MANY americans (as one of them says no1 offer to buy an underpriced house.cant be in asia as asian property hardly has UNDERPRICED) so disillusioned with the stock market as it entered SECULAR bear since 2000 im very happy
AS warren buffett always says be greedy when others are fearful....

im not saying that there wont be a cyclical bear coming BUT be prepared for the BREAKOUT into a secular bull in 2012-2017..

One comment even says 2years ago it was underpriced.HELLO?ive been thru that.HOW MANY PEOPLE DARE BUY DURING THAT TIME?not my relatives.not my friends.when dow was at 6500,they say dow will drop to 4000,ITS JUST BASELESS guess to QUENCH their FEARS.
i dare buy during that time and its not due to fuckamentals.

WHEN ASIA NEVER GO MUCH LOWER IN MAR09 N USA went only 10pc lower,I KNOW THAT WAS THE FINAL bottom.

WHY FUCKAMENTAL ABOUT PE RATIO, I DONT GIVE A FUCKING DAM?
during oct08,PE should be same as MAR 09 AS sti,hsi at same values...BUT YOU JUST THINK IF THE STOCK MARKET WERE TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE,QUADRUPLE,SEXTUPLE bottoms, WILL PE COUNT????
YOU WILL BE JUST WASTING SO MUCH TIME WAITING.WHY NOT WAIT FOR TECHINCALS TO SHOW YOU THE LIGHT??

i always call fundamentals FUCKAMENTALS
techincals are NEVER 100pc rite,BUT at leastit shows you more precise timing.

look at property...teaches us a lesson
dont LOSE BIG for sake of earning small

quick rush buy because of cheap interest
LETS COUNT,imagine you buy at 1pc interest p.a.HOW MANY years can this rock bottom phenomenon continue?at most 3 years---HOW MUCH CAN YOU SAVE?difference from normal of about 4pc--

AT MOST 10PC saved in 3 years at 1pc p.a.

but how much has the asian property price gone up since crisis started?i remember about 50pc from lows--

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Hong-Kong-Real-Estate-History-in-a-chart1.png

WORTH IT???10pc gain for 50pc MORE EXPENSIVE???

EVEN IN WORST SCENARIO,50pc more expensive divided by 3pc difference each year,16years of remaining at 1pc p.a.,u think feasible that interest rates will remain at 1pc p.a.for 16years??

so many asian countries already started tightening...
THAT IS WHY I FIRMLY BELIEVE property,property counters will UNDERPERFORM general stock mkt EVEN WHEN ECONOMY RECOVERS and into EXPANSION STAGE...

property "investors" or i say fools who rush in at 1pc interest are really nothing more than housewives bargaining at wet market for a discount WHEN THEY DONT KNOW that the fish they buy are already starting to become bad(starting to become NOT VALUE FOR MONEY)and the hawker decides to give them a discount to offload.

I WENT HK IN MARCH 2010 AND DECIDED AGAINST TO BUY HK PROPERTY.true it went up after that BUT how much further can it go up?to nevernever land?
1.property tightening
2.rates up(affect majority as most borrow loans to buy)
3.when USA recover,it will draw some of the expats AND EVEN LOCALS back to US to work,and will reduce demand for rents and purchases.some expats,LOCALS may then sell the property to bring back to USA

I SEE ASIAN PROPERTY AS THE LAST PLACE TO INVEST RIGHT NOW.shanghai property price how can be near singapore price when their people salary is only a third or lesser than singaporeans?

THOSE WHO BELIEVE ECONOMY EXPANSION,PROPERTY PRICE SOAR ARE PLAIN IDIOTS.property isnt like stock market where you can play games.u must place a deposit,if many cant afford to place a deposit,HOW TO CONTINUE THE PASS THE TORCH GAME?
stockmarket you can continue playing the pass the torch game within the CONTRA PERIOD as long as you have HUGE ASSETS to push as in stockmarket its just TRADING LIMIT and it doesnt require DEPOSIT..

PROPERTY PRICE IN ASIA REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF US PROBLEMS,LOW INTEREST RATE.USA RECOVERY BODES CALAMITY FOR ASIAN PROPERTY!!!

look at shanghai today!!!!

SHORTIST SQUEEZE...LOOK AT THE PANIC IN SHORTISTS TODAY!!!

I SAW THRU,ALWAYS AT LAST HOUR OF DAY,LAST DAY OF WEEK, LAST DAY OF MONTH,LAST DAY OF QUARTER,GOT "STRANGE" THINGS TO REVEAL REAL PURPOSE.

THIS WEEK,SHANGHAI COMPOSITE FAKE BREAKDOWN OF BASE IN WEEKLY CHARTS,ONLY TO SEE A LAST DAY OF WEEK surge ,IF CAN REVERSE UP TO 2772 BY 3PM TODAY,ILL GO MAD
y?
BEAUTIFUL DOJI WITH LOWER TAIL OF 100POINTS,4PC!!

I LOVE MEDIA FEARS OF CHINA:LOOK AT CNBC SAY--"CHINA PROPERTY BUBBLE,CURRENCY MANIPULATION,TRADE DISPUTES"MORE BAD NEWS I LOVE IT

YESTERDAY I WENT SUNTEC...wah so many idiots carry fundsupermart bags walking in suntec..why AT MAR09,FUNDSUPERMART dont hold conference to investors??

THATS BECOZ MAJORITY OF POPULATION ARE FUCKING IDIOTS---ALWAYS RUSH IN AFTER ECONOMY STABILIZE,GOOD NEWS ABUNDANT...thats why there is a saying majority investors LOSE in stockmarket

half day volume of shanghai comp is already 70pc of normal day volume!!!OBSCENE SHORTIST SQUEEZE

NOTE:REALLY HIT MY 2660S--today lowest was 2667!!!!

SEE MY NEXT PREDICTION:

TIMING IS ALSO VERY VERY VERY "TIMELY"---SHANGHAI ALWAYS CONSOLIDATE IN BASES IN ROUND NUMBER MONTHS,THIS IS REPEATED 3X already.this base is formed week starting nov15,hence if today can close 2772,a beautiful doji will follow by a surge up next week= MORNING STAR pattern!!!just nice coincide with week after ROUND NUMBER CONSOLIDATION BASE COMES A WEEK OF BiG SURGE in the past 3 bases!!!!next week should close above 2894 IF this week,today 3pm can close at 2772

WHAT THE FUCKING FISH?!!

if you think im good...please do recommend your frens,colleagues,family,relatives to my blog..
become my followers OR leave comments and questions for me
much appreciated......

AT 4am singapore time...dow,sp500 UP,MOST AGRICULTURE REVERSE UP,SILVER BOUNCE UP FROM 27.38 LOWEST TO 27.70 now.

Average down silver at 27.48...

TO foreigners who 1st time visit my blog...if you are asian,you will notice hangseng index...

on Monday,17jan2011,when shanghai plunge 3pc,WHY did hsi drop 0.5% ONLY?

THEN ON Thursday,shanghai plunge another 3pc,WHY did hangseng(hsi) drop 2pc?

I NEVER LEAVE THINGS TO LUCK...

remember i said hangseng to be stuck in 24k-24.4K range...If shanghai plunge a total of 6pc,and IF hangseng follows,hangseng will drop all the way to 23K,Break MY TARGET 24K...

EVEN HANGSENG HAS TO RESPECT MY CALL!!!!

hahahahaha SO OBEDIENT....so KELONG(fake)

NOTE:im not saying shanghai will not drop, but plunge of 3+pc should be the LAST today.

STRANGE THINGS "HAPPEN" AT HANGSENG 24K,

so COINCIDENT hangseng touch my support 24K,(1)GOLDSILVER RATIO has to hit my beloved 50,AND reverse DOWN
(2) dow,sp500 has to reverse losses and go up
(3)shanghai has to plunge 3pc
(4)commodity reverse losses

HOW CAN THINGS BE SO COINCIDENTAL??????????????????????????????????

by looking at the so clear and transparent manipulation pattern,HSI should be going up from here.HONGKONG manipulator already knows on MONDAY 17jan2011 beforehand that shanghai going to plunge ANOTHER 3pc very soon,thats why they withhold hangseng NOT to drop too much ON MONDAY

THIS PATTERN OF SHANGHAI UP2PC,DOWN3PC IVE SEEN SO MANY TIMES, in equity markets in my SEVEN years trading...this is called "SHAKING OFF IDIOTS" BASE FORMATION PATTERN

Tonite i have a strange feeling that us stckmkt will reverse all losses and go up TOGETHER with commodities...

AS GOLD SILVER RATIO HITS G-SPOT 50!!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD TODAY HIGHEST 1370 SILVER LOWEST IS 27.38
WHAT DO YOU GET??
EXACTLY 50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THAT IS WHY STOCKMKT AND SILVER BOTH REBOUNDING UP FROM LOWS NOW!!!!!!!

I BOUGHT SOME SILVER AT 27.60 not to miss the boat!!!!!!!

NOTE:as us stckmkt approaching 10th week,THE ONLY FEAR is that gold silver ratio stays near 50 and "coincides" with stckmkt drop,rises to 60--thats MAX..
BUT AT 50,SILVER SURE TO BOUNCE UP,even if temporary!!!!

market trivia time!
lets see some hilarious news...

Forex - Dollar up vs. most rivals as euro jitters hit sentiment2011-01-11 08:46:41 GMT (Forex Pros)


BUT

The US dollar is under pressure this morning as risk appetite and liquidity improved with investors returning to markets after the holidays. The euro climbed to a three-week peak against the dollar despite upbeat U.S. data. The USD perked up after data showed U.S. manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December and construction spending hit a five-month high in November. Additionally, November U.S. Factory Orders beat forecasts rising 0.7%.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/97425/20110105/daily-forex-summary-on-usd-euro-gbp-jpy-aud-cad-and-nzd.htm


CONCLUSION:??

WHAT IS THE USD?
IS IT A SAFE HAVEN CURRENCY OR NOT???
LISTEN TO BLOODY NEWS U SURE DIE WITHOUT KNOWING WHY

LOOKS LIKE SHANGHAI CANT END THIS WEEK AT 2772...TOMORROW SHALL TEST 2655

watch out for possible 2772 closing for shanghai this friday I HOPE,to form a doji,which signify MASSIVE importance--difference between a 2mth OR a 3mth consolidation base starting week of nov15 2010.

IF TODAY SHANGHAI CLOSE POSITIVE,HOPES OF 2772 by friday 3pm ARE VERY HIGH

as said, china may drop further in these coming days..how true,like dec28 hit 2730 but dec29 went to lowest 2720..
hence shanghai may drop another 10+points from 2680 to around 2660s
lets see
if today,we get a reversal,and close positive at3pm,then up from here

WAHAHAHA aint i right???
wednesday,19jan 2011,shanghai went up 1.87pc!!
reclaim the 2750 very fast IN TWO DAYS,just as i said FAST DOWN 2680,FAST UP to 2750

I HOPE SHANGHAI BY THIS FRIDAY,21JAN 2011 CAN PARK BETWEEN 2820-2870...LOOK ITS HOPE AND NOT PREDICTION..

ONLY IF this week can go there,then I CAN SAFELY SAY next week will be week shanghai breaks out of 2894
IF NOT,shanghai comp may test 2680 MANY TIMES

京挺港 小QFII有望快推
1月 18日 星期二 06:00 更新

【經濟日報專訊】醞釀已久讓本港募集人民幣回流內地證券市場的「小QFII」機制，有望短期內開通。中國證監會(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)主席尚福林昨表明，將推動境外募集人民幣基金進行境內證券投資試點，作為支持本港鞏固和提升國際金融中心地位的措施之一。


尚福林提及推動境外募集人民幣基金進行境內證券投資試點，正是俗稱的「小QFII」，但他未有披露詳情和時間表。

他昨在「亞洲金融論壇」上表示，將以實際行動支持本港鞏固和提升國際金融中心地位，包括支持中國企業境外上市以港為境外上市首選，中證監更將為內地中小企包括民營企業境外上市提供便利。此外，推動內地交易所完善清算安排，港股組合以ETF（交易所買賣基金）形式到內地上市。

尚福林H股 在港發人債

對於推動本港人民幣市場，尚福林稱還將支持H股公司以先行先試方式，在港發行人債，亦支持兩地期貨發展。

本港尋求開通境外人民幣回流內地證券市場的渠道，惹來上海的異議（詳見另文——「滬唱反調 不應讓資金回流」），但尚福林強調：「兩地資本市場可相互促進，共同發展。」

對於「小QFII」開通，同場全國人大(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)常委會原副委員長成思危亦稱，政策肯定朝這方面走，人民幣惟有完全自由兌換，才可成為儲備貨幣，內地開放有必要以香港作為試點。

路透社昨引述兩名知情人士透露，「小QFII」有望很快便推出。為穩妥起見，計劃先要求募集資金中不少於80%須投資於債券，包括投資證交所掛牌和銀行間債市。

而財經事務及庫務局(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)局長陳家強則指出，有關「小QFII」研究工作一直進行中，他亦期望有關機制可盡早落實，相信待準備工作完成後就會公布。

構思的「小QFII」，先由內地證券和基金機構在港分公司，將在港募集人民幣投資內地證券市場，故亦被視為對中資金融機構境外發展的支持。據悉，中資基金公司中，南方基金、大成基金、易方達基金、嘉實基金及博時基金均已遞交申請，券商則以海通證券、國泰君安(新聞 - 網站 - 圖片)、中信證券等，盛傳若獲放行，即可獲首批「小QFII」資格。

券商估規模不大 屬過渡產品

交銀國際首席執行官譚岳衡昨接受本報查詢時稱，未接獲「小QFII」將開通消息。他理解，內地在防範熱錢湧入下，即使開通「小QFII」，數額都僅數十億元。但另有中資券商相信，首批可望於上半年獲批。

中銀國際執行副總裁謝湧海指出，中國面對流動性過大問題，資金「出去從寬，回流從嚴」屬可以理解。他認為，「小QFII」只會是人民幣離岸市場發展過程中的過渡性產品，規模亦不會變得愈來愈大。

更多經濟日報網站內容, 請登入hket.com

IF U BELIEVE IS THIS NEWS PUSH HK UP TODAY U MUST EITHER TREAT TECHNICALS AS NOT IMPT OR AN IDIOT
go calculate 78.6pc of hsi,sti,sp500 of entire subprime range and TELL ME WHICH HAS MOST ROOM TO GO UP

look at how fake the stockmkt is!!
sti becoz closest to next resistance than hsi,sp500 at 3380,78.6 fibo,is now very flat
sti now fry pennies more than sp500 or hsi. more than half in even top 20 volumesti are pennies,REINFORCING MY 10WEEK SP500 CYCLE IS DAM CORRECT!!
THIS IS START OF 8TH WEEK
SHANGHAI NOW 2713!! MAGIC 2680s!!

shanghai may return to 2680s in the next two days JUST LIKE THE dec29,30,2 days after shanghai hit bottom at dec28 went lower than dec28 lowest BUT close up

as im saying right now---
10.50am
today tuesday shanghai hit 2683 and rebound up--lets see whether it will go below 2683 later to 2681 or even 2655?????
those r 2 most sensitive points!
how accurate i am that it will hit today!
PREPARING FOR THE BIG STAGE TOMORROW!!

but hongkongers saw thru the gimmick---

yesterday shanghai plunge 3pc,hsi down only 0.5%
today as of 11am,shanghai still down a bit BUT AFTER REBOUND AT 2683,,hsi up SAME amount AS YESTERDAY DROP,ERASE ALL OF YESTERDAY DROP

SO FUNNY INDEED!!

touching 1580 for sp500 will not start a secular bull BUT breaking it does start a secular bull market

REASONS FOR cyclical BULL,SECULAR BULL IN 2015-2016:
1. from this cyclical bullmarket start mar09,usmkt still has experienced ONE CORRECTION--technically defined as 10pc-<20PC drop from the highs==WHICH IS THE euro CRISIS

sp500 dropped 17pc from highs
dow dropped 14.6pc from highs
nasdaq dropped 18.7pc from highs

hence after 1580 hit,there may come another cyclical bear market in a secular bear market.

2.sp500 drag from 1975 to 1982 to park below resistance,hence im worried that sp500 may return to 1580 but fall back and wait till 2016 to breakout!!

REASONS FOR SECULAR BULL START THIS YEAR 2011 or 2012

1.IF sp500 close above 1380 (weekly candlestick) by end of the SIXTH 10th week,then high chance THE VERY NEXT 10weeks may test 1580
IF by next 10th weeks,sp500 does touch 1580,then the number of months from mar 09 to then,still in 2011,will still be lesser than the average bull market which last 43months---meaning a lot of time to go up---
which translate to even MORE 10week uplegs!!!

ANOTHER CORRECT PREDICTION by me!
i said if china doesnt park below 2894 by last week and if last friday drop,then shanghai have a chance of return to 2680 IN A SWIFT manner!

1.i even suspect friday if drop,then will trigger a plunge to 2680
2.how am i to know china will hike reserve ratio requirement over weekend?as i made that prediction BEFORE weekend.

THE POSITION OF THE INDICES WILL "SHAPE" THE NATURE OF THE NEWS...
BAD NEWS CAN MEAN GOOD
GOOD NEWS CAN MEAN PLUNGE
BAD NEWS CAN MEAN WORSE NEWS
GOOD NEWS CAN BE SUPER GOOD NEWS

LET ME TEACH YOU ALL WHY NEWS CANT BE BELIEVED
EG.
1)INTEREST RATE RISES,stockmkt goes up---news will say "OPTIMISM ABOUT ECONOMY"
interest RATE RISES,stockmarket plunges---news say "CREDIT TIGHTENING FEARS SPOOK INVESTORS"

2)ECONOMIC DATA GOOD,stckmkt plunges---news will say"strong economy erase hopes of further bailout"
OR news will say" good economic data "FACTORED IN"

3)external events--EG.abu dhabi govt debt problem,PORTUGAL bond downgrade by moodys--stckmkt goes up,or recover most of losses,--news will say"rumours of "white knight"
OR "DESPITE"

very fake!!
so coincidental HU JINTAO VISIT TO USA IS ON WED!!!
look at dec 27,28 2010

dec 27 2010:
body of down candle:62points

dec28 2010: bottom at 2730,(altho went lower on dec29,30 BUT both 29,30 close up)

TOTAL DROP 100POINTS IN TWO DAYS

today,jan17 2011:
body of candle down:66points!!!

tomorrow,jan18 2011,
should bottom tomorrow at 2680

drop 100points in two days from 2790 to 2680!!!SAME!!!!

PLUNGE "QUICKLY" TO END JUST IN TIME FOR HU VISIT TO USA on wed,JAN 19 2011!!!!

SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 2680 IS COMING!!!!
I EVEN SAID THAT( before friday plunge)IF LAST WEEK FRIDAY PLUNGE,HIGH CHANCE GOING TEST 2680!!
golden chance ahoy

i "love" insurance!!
i will make sure i will sign a death insurance of 20m for my kids when i am 70years old and above.
i will use the profits earned during the TWO bullmarkets in 40 years from now to "GAMBLE" with insurance companies.

WHO WANTS TO INSURE 10M OF DEATH INSURABCE WHEN IM 30YEARS OLD.got 2 secular bull markets in front of me?
i earn shiok 1st,then use massive profits to gamble and make insurance companies LOSE TILL FACE GREEN AND WHITE
hahahahaha

OOO I LOVE TO GAMBLE WHEN MY ODDS OF WINNING ARE GREATER!!
THAT ALWAYS APPLY TO MY STOCKMKT PHILOSOPHY!!

im saying this today..take note of date

SP500 WHETHER WILL HIT 1580 WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SP500 CAN CLOSE ABOVE 1381 ON THE 10TH WEEK

im not the operator BUT the trend is very clear...
IF FEB 1ST WEEK END sp500 can close above 1381,

I WILL GO MAD!!!!

Attention MY dear FANS!!

sp500 10week trend is back again.this week ending 14jan2011 is the 7th week.JUST 90POINTS,7pc TO GO IN THREE WEEKS!!!
next week 8th week,9th week will be up weeks but will be stalling around 1300-1346 region,waiting for the 10th week to surge to 1380-1400

DO I NEED NEWS TO TELL ME?i always fuck care news.when i sms to my fren this aft,how in the world do i know jp morgan results very good at night?i just know usmkt will go up DUE TO THE FACT that hangseng went UP despite SHANGHAI going down in asia afternoon.i told him "usmkt sure up to something at night".THESE ARE MY EXACT WORDS!

another golden chance is ahoy!!based on today gold px 1360 and silver 28.40, buy silver when goldsilver ratio HIT 50.

VERY IMPORTANT:BUT the ONLY FLAW is that IF GOLD SILVER RATIO hits 50 same time with sp500 in 10th week,then its a ONE WAY DOWN for silver,dragging the goldsilver ratio to 60.

at the END OF 10TH WEEK,week ending 1st week of feb 2011, will come a retracement OR correction,BUT it definitely wont be the end of the CYCLICAL BULL IN A SECULAR BEAR

I SINCERELY HOPE TONIGHTSP500 CLOSE VERY NEAR 1300!!!!

LOOK AT SUGAR!!!!!!
TUMBLE 2PC WHEN ALL OTHERS SURGE!!!!!!!!
COFFEE UP2.5PC
CORN UP 4.3PC
WHEAT UP 2PC
SOYBEAN UP 4.5PC
OAT UP3.4PC
WOOL UP 2.6PC
COPPER UP 1.5PC
PALLADIUM UP 4PC
PLATINUM UP2PC
NICKEL UP 4PC
HOGS UP2PC
CATTLE UP2PC

HUAT TILL I CANT RECOGNIZE MY HOUSE

ANOTHER TIP:shanghai composite next week will break out of 2894 BASE DUE TO EXCUSE OF CHINA PRESIDENT HU JINTAO VISIT TO USA
HOW I KNOW?
LOOK AT PATTERN OF BASES IN SHANGHAI COMPOSITE TO SEE HOW WELL MANIPULATED IS STOCKMKT

IF BY THIS FRIDAY SHANGHAI CLOSES BEYONG 2870,THEN IM 90PC CONFIDENT THAT NEXT WEEK STARTING 17JAN 2011 SHANGHAI WILL GO BEYOND 2894 AND TEST 2970!!!!!!

BUT if shanghai plunges on friday,then it may head to 2680 and base will take 3mths

SHARESWIZARD SAYS SO!!!!!!!!
U LIKE MY BLOG, PLEASE RECO TO FRENDS AND BECOME MY FOLLOWERS.THANKS

Continued on FURTHER PROOF heading towards 1380!!!

NEW EVIDENCE

upleg1:last week,9th week, candlestickbody open up from 880 to 930
(1576-666) 23.6pc 880 AND (1466-903)0pc at 903

upleg2:last week,10th week,candlestick body up from lowest value in 10th week-1035-1074
(1576-666) 38.2pc 1013 AND (1466-903) 23.6pc at 1036

upleg3:last week,10th week,candlestick body open up from 1117 to 1145
(1576--666) 50pc 1121 AND (1466-903)38.2pc at 1118

upleg4 last week,10th week, candlestick bodyopen from 1184 to 1218
(1576-666) 61.8pc 1228 AND (1466-903) 50pc at 1185

upleg5 last week,10th week, candlestick body open from 1185 to 1228
(1576-666)61.8pc, 1228 AND (1466-903)50pc at 1185

upleg6 NOW 6th week,10th week?,candlestick body MOST PROBABLY open at 1346!! and highs at 1400
WHY 1346?
(1576--666) 78.6pc,1381 AND (1466-903)78.6pc at 1346

at6th week, we past the (1466-903)61.8pc at 1251,hence 10th week of 6th upleg candlestick body WILL open at 1346,as shown by prev 5 10wk upleg, that 10th week candlestick body opening values always at fibs of range(1466-903)and the max or closing values of 10th week ALWAYS higher OR equal to the fibs of range(1576-666){EXCEPT 1ST UPLEG where starting value is 23.6pc of (1576--666)}




CONCLUSION:

HENCE LAST WEEK,10th week of 6th upleg will be starting from 1346 and closing above OR EQUAL to 1381

hi ive received sms from frens tasking me how to read

1576-666 1467-903

1ST (EXCEPTION)9WK UPLEG >23.6pc >0pc
MAX 930 880 903

WEEK STARTING MAR9 2009 TO WEEK STARTING MAY4 2009

(>23.6pc)belongs to the fib of 1576-666
(>0pc) belongs to the fib of 1467-903
ANYTHING BELOW THAT COLUMN VERTICALLY ARE ALL UNDER THAT RESPECTIVE COMLUMN

930 IS THE MAX VALUE OF THE UPLEG 1
880 IS THE 23.6PC OF 1576-903
903 IS THE 0PC OF 1467-903

APPLY THIS WAY OF READING TO ALL the uplegs

why are these two ranges1. 1576-666 and 1467-903 very important?

becoz they are huge in values,1576-666 is more important as it is larger in absolute value AND ENTIRE RANGE

1467-903 is 2nd important becoz it is the HUGE candle body of the plunge in 2008

LETS SUMMARISE

1576-666 1467-903

1ST (EXCEPTION)9WK UPLEG >23.6pc >0pc
MAX 930 880 903

WEEK STARTING MAR9 2009 TO WEEK STARTING MAY4 2009

2ND 10WEEK UPLEG >38.2PC >23.6PC
MAX 1074 1013 1036

WEEK STARTING JUL13 2009 TO WEEK STARTING SEPT14 2009

3RD 10WEEK UPLEG >50PC >38.2PC
MAX 1145 1121 1118

WEEK STARTING NOV2 2009 TO WEEK STARTING JAN4 2010

4TH 10 WEEK UPLEG =61.8PC >50PC
MAX at 1220 1228 1185

WEEK STARTING FEB15 2010 TO WEEK STARTING APR19 2010

5TH 10WEEK UPLEG =61.8PC >50PC
MAX AT 1228 1228 1185

WEEK STARTING AUG30 2010 TO WEEK STARTING NOV1 2010

6TH 10WEEK UPLEG ALREADY >61.8PC >61.8PC
MAX 1380-1400?? (>78.6pc?????) 1251

WEEK STARTING NOV 29 2010 TO WEEK STARTING (31JAN 2011???)

note:() MEANS predictions NOT already achieved

OH MY GOD EVEN IF YOU CHANGE THE DISTANCE INSTEAD OF 2007-2009PLUNGE OF 1576-666, AND CHANGE IT TO 1467(OPENING VALUE OF SP500 AT 2008) AND CLOSE AT 903(THE CLOSING VALUE OF 2008)
it produces MORE shocking revelations!!


0pc:903
23.6pc:1036
38.2pc:1118
50pc:1185
61.8pc:1251
78.6pc:1346
100:1467

1st upleg of 10weeks mar9 2009- may4 2009 went beyond 903,but 1st resting period, may11-jul6 2009 dip down below 903--903 can also be seen as first resistance(0pc)

went up 10 weeks,jul13 2009 -sept14 2009 went beyond 1036(23.6pc)

THEN sept21-oct26 2009 resting period also ended with a close AT 1036!!

nov2 2009- jan4 2010 week also went beyond the 1118(38.2pc) to 1145

jan11- feb8 2010 week drop down,lowest point 1044,NEAR 23.6pc,1036!!

feb 15-apr19 2010 week also went beyond the 50pc of this RANGE(1467-903),1185 BUT DIDNOT go beyond the 61.8pc of the other RANGE(1576-666) and the 61.8pc of this range(1467-903)--(50pc)
CONCLUSION:because of two ranges MAJOR resistance 61.8pc fib COINCIDE with 1228-1250 space,HENCE THE FUCKING EURO crisis EXCUSE BEST TO SHORT

NEXT comes the EURO CRISIS,last 19weeks.STRANGELY the 38.2pc of this RANGE(1467-903) acts as the resistance for the 2 smaller resistances in the correction:eg,(1)WEEK STARTING JUNE21 2010 OPEN 1122 AND DROP DOWN.(2)WEEK STARTING AUG 9 2010 open 1122 and drop down

START OF SECOND HALF:

5th 10weeks upleg from aug30 2010 week ALSO STARTED FROM lowest 1040,which is very near to 1036,the 23.6pc fib of THIS range(1467-903)

STRANGELY the drop from week starting NOV8 2010 to week starting nov 22 2010 also is well supported by the 1185(50pc)of this range(1467-903)





CONCLUSION BY ZACK:
THIS RANGE (1467-903) IS NOT AS "COINCIDENTAL" AS THE BEFORE RANGE(1567-666).but it is very IMPORTANT nonetheless AS IT PROVIDE MISSING LINKS!!

THESE NEW IMPORTANT 4Digit numbers 1036,1118,1185

sp500 FAMOUS 10 week upleg HISTORY,only for 1st time 9 weeks
CRITIERIA FOR 10WK UPLEG:START WITH A LONG CANDLE BODY,LAST WEEK ENDS WITH A LONG CANDLE BODY

1st HALF

1.mar9 2009 to may4 2009(9weeks)
up 260pts
672-929

2.JUL13 2009- SEPT14 2009(10WEEKS)
up 200points
875-1075

3.nov2,2009-jan4 2010(10weeks)
up 120pts
1029-1145

FIRST THREE 10WEEKS UPLEGS MAINTAIN BY UPWARD SUPPORT TRENDLINE CONNECTING LOWS

4. feb15 2010-apr19,2010(10weeks)
up 140points
1079-1218

SECOND HALF

5. AUG30 2010-NOV1 2010(10WEEKS)
UP 190POINTS
1040-1228

6. NOV29 2010---???
SO FAR,nov 29 2010 TO NOW,JAN 8 IS 6 WEEKS
UP 100POINTS SO FAR IN 6WEEKS
1173----??

FOUR WEEKS TO GO.....

THE RESTING PERIOD

1.MAY11 2009-JUL6 2009
MAX DOWN 60POINTS
930-869
9WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:DOUBLE TOP,RETRACE TO 78.6%FIB of rise(672 to 929),down 6.5pc
bounce off 880,23.6pc of plunge

2.SEPT21 2009-OCT26 2009
MAX DOWN 54POINTS
1074-1020
6WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:DOUBLE TOP AND HORIZONTAL BAND,bounce off 38.2pcof plunge FIB

3. JAN11-FEB8 2010:
MAX DOWN 90POINTS
1150-1044
5WEEKS
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION: break uptrend diagonal support line connecting lows of starting weeks of 1st two 10 weeks,down 9pc,ALMOST MISSING "CORRECTION" technical definition of 10pc

4. END OF FIRST HALF:
max down 210points
1220-1010
19weeks
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:bounce off 38.2pc fib of 07-09plunge,1013

START OF 2ND HALF

5.MAX DOWN 50points
1227-1177
3weeks
TYPE OF CONSOLIDATION:park below 1228,61.8pc fib of 1576-666 plunge


OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SP500:

move beyond 23.6pc to 930(23.6)--9WEEKS
fell back retest 23.6pc
went beyond 38.2pc to 1075(38.2pc)--10WEEKS
fell back retest 38.2pc 1013
went beyond 50pc to 1145(50pc)--10WEEKS
fell below 50pc 1121 to 1044(miss technical definition of "correction")
went to test 61.8pc 1228 FAILED,NEVER GO BEYOND 1228 (61.8)--10WEEKS
PLUNGE 210pts due to EXCUSE EURO CRISIS,BOUNCE OFF 38.2pc 1013,(NARROWLY AVOID BEARMARKET DEFINITION OF 20PC)
went back to retest 61.8pc at 1228 (61.8)--10WEEKS
fell 4pc just below 61.8pc to 1177(just belown3pc rule)

THE GOLDEN QUESTION!!!

NOW!!!GOING TO 1320 OR 1381(78.6PC???)

im going to change my estimate because everytime sp500 rise 10weeks sure to go to A higher fib OR BEYOND a higher FIB(once we cross that FIB)

NOW MY ESTIMATE FOR THIS RALLY END 4 WEEKS LATER AT 78.6PC 1381-1400!!!!!

MEANING THERE WILL BE A RALLY OF extra 100-120POINTS FROM 2ND WEEK JAN TO 1ST WEEK FEB 2011

MY COMMENTS::

very well planned indeed!!!IVE SHOWN HOW TECHNICAL THE STOCKMARKET IS..EVERY UPLEG,DOWNLEG HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH TECHNICALS,patterns.THOSE PEOPLE WHO NEVER STUDY THOROUGHLY WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND THE MAGIC OF TECHNICALS


fibonnaccis of sp500 of big plunge (1576-666) 2007
23.6pc: 880
38.2: 1013
50pc:1121
61.8pc:1228
78.6: 1381

Wealthy Singaporeans cautious about investments



Yet more than half of them still managed to grow net worth in the last six months.

The latest findings of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker show that affluent Singaporeans are relatively cautious about investments, when compared to their Asian counterparts.

More than half of affluent individuals surveyed in India (54%) and HK (52%) and almost a third in China (29%) and Taiwan (28%) said that they are looking to increase their investment, particularly in local securities. By comparison, only 19 percent of affluent Singaporeans plan to increase their investment in equities and bonds, according to an HSBC report.

A wave of affluent investors taking up new investment products is also expected from Greater China: 32% in HK, 21% in mainland China and 12% from Taiwan, but in Singapore, only 1 percent planned to take up new investments.

The third wave of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker was conducted by Nielsen for HSBC across 2,072 affluent individuals aged 18-65 in seven key markets in Asia from February to April 2010. With the last wave conducted in September to October 2009, the survey gauged the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by liquid assets or mortgage value.

The survey also calculated a risk index to measure mentality and behaviour towards security and growth. On a scale of 0-200, where 0 represents security and 200 for growth, markets tended to hover near the mean of 100 for Indonesia (100), India (100) and mainland China (99) showing a more balanced attitude toward risk compared to six months ago.

The more mature markets of Taiwan (89), Malaysia (89), Singapore (82) and Hong Kong (82) show a shift to a security-oriented investment strategy. Singapore registered the largest drop in risk appetite, from 95 in the last survey six months ago to 82 in this survey.

Preference for stable wealth growth
This cautious approach appears to be working for affluent Singaporeans, as the vast majority maintained or grew their net worth in the last six months (91%). While this is a consistent trend across the region, Singapore registered the highest percentage of affluent individuals who maintained and grew their assets in the region. When compared to the last survey, Singapore also has the largest increase in affluent individuals who maintained or grew their assets in the region (91% vs 73%).

Despite being relatively conservative, affluent Singaporeans are among the top three countries with the highest increase in total net worth in the region. More than half of affluent Singaporeans increased their total net worth in the last six months (52%). However, it is the affluent Mainland Chinese who are leading Asia’s wealth surge with 69 percent increasing their total net worth in the last six months; followed by Malaysia at 58 percent. The Singapore findings are fairly consistent with the last survey, when 53% of Singaporeans saw an increase in total net worth.

Consistent with the conservative investment approach of affluent Singaporeans, 47 percent – the highest in the region – said that they preferred to focus on capital protection when asked about risk appetite. Singapore also registered the largest increase (29%) in affluent individuals who tended toward capital protection in the region.

The majority of affluent individuals in the other countries have a moderate appetite for risk. Indonesia (25%) and Malaysia (23%) showed the largest increase in people with a bigger risk appetite. In Singapore, only 8 percent - the lowest in region - said they have a bigger risk appetite.

Mr Greg Zeeman, Head of Personal Financial Services at HSBC Singapore said, “The findings of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker show that affluent Singaporeans are growing their wealth in a safe and steady way. Staying invested and building a core suite of investment solutions for capital protection is essential to achieving stable wealth growth and this is what we advise our customers to do, particularly in times of market uncertainty.”

Relatively under-invested in equities
Aside from local currency deposits, the survey also found that local securities, unit trusts and foreign currency deposits are the more popular financial holdings among affluent Asians. In Singapore, about 40 percent of affluent individuals hold unit trusts and local securities; and 19 percent hold foreign currency deposits.

However, equity holdings are significantly higher in most of the other Asian countries particularly in local securities, which are held by 87 percent of affluent Hong Kongers; 71 percent of affluent Mainland Chinese; 70 percent of affluent Taiwanese and 60 percent of affluent Indians. More than half of affluent individuals in India (58%), Malaysia (56%), China (55%) and Taiwan (55%) also hold unit trusts.

Affluent individuals in Taiwan and Mainland Chinese are the biggest equity traders, with a 12-month average turnover in stocks of US$547,739 and US$371,885 respectively. Mainland Chinese are also Asia’s biggest unit trust investors, with the highest 12-month average unit trust turnover at US$30,141.

Mr Zeeman said, “Affluent individuals in other parts of Asia such as Mainland China and India may be more adventurous with investments because they tend to be younger accumulating wealth very quickly. Affluent individuals in Singapore tend to be more mature and focused on wealth preservation to provide for the needs of their family and retirement. However, at every life stage there are benefits to diversifying into equities to tap into the upside of the market. Affluent Singaporeans who have a relatively conservative investment appetite can do this through unit trusts, which are tailored and managed to suit their risk appetite.”

Profile of affluent Singaporeans
On the profile of affluent individuals across Asia, the survey found affluent Singaporeans to be older, with an average age of 44. Mainland China has the youngest affluent population with an average age of 36, followed by India with an average age of 38 and Indonesia with an average age of 39.

The majority of affluent Asians are married with kids, with the largest percentage in Taiwan (88%), followed by Malaysia (81%) and India (78%). 64% of affluent Singaporeans are married with kids. Hong Kong has the lowest proportion of affluent individuals who are married with kids (46%) and the highest percentage of affluent individuals with double income and no kids - 39% - which is more than double that of Singapore (18%).

Hong Kongers are also the most affluent in Asia with average liquid assets of over US$300,000 almost twice that of Singaporeans, which are second with an average of over US$180,000 in liquid assets.

The survey also found that Singapore has highest percentage of affluent individuals that use overseas banking services (21%). Hong Kong is second at 11%, followed by Taiwan and India both at 6%.

Commenting on this finding, Mr Zeeman said, “We can certainly vouch for the demand for global banking services amongst affluent Singaporeans, who are increasingly mobile and world-oriented. In 2009, HSBC Premier - our personalised banking platform that enables customers to access service and support around the world - recorded the largest increase in new customers across all our customer propositions in Singapore.”

An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980's and 1990's for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.

Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance

Secular Bear Duration Avg Yearly Ret Secular Bull Duration Avg Yearly Ret
Markets (Years) (Dow) Markets (Years) (Dow)
1906-1921 16 1.58% 1922-1928 7 17.20%
1929-1949 21 1.69% 1950-1965 16 10.60%
1966-1982 17 1.59% 1983-1999 17 15.30%
2000-?


Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and S&P 500 Performance
Secular Bear Duration Avg Yearly Ret Secular Bull Duration Avg Yearly Ret
Markets (Years) (S&P 500) Markets (Years) (S&P 500)
1906-1921 NA NA 1922-1928 7 17.90%
1929-1949 21 2.34% 1950-1965 16 11.40%
1966-1982 17 3.64% 1983-1999 17 14.96%
2000-?


The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Market which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.

Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.



Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).



Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960's through the 1970's in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.



Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.

----download from www.amateur-investors.com/Secular_Bear_Markets_vs_Secular%20Bull_Markets.htm -

sp500 trend very clear:

10 wk rise pattern MUSTNT BE IGNORED

1st 10wk rise:

mar9 2009 to may4th week

sp rose 260pts

2nd 10 wk rise:

jul13 to sept 14 2009 week

sp rose 200 points

3rd 10 week rise:

nov2nd to jan4th week

sp rose 120points

feb8 2010 week to apr 12 2010 week

sp rose 160points

now 2nd half:


aug1st to nov1st week

sp rose 190points

now we r in 5th week from nov29th week

rose 80points so far, left around 50-80-120points in last 5weeks

why ave singaporeans liquid assets still lose to ave hker liquid assets by 60pc?

is it due to this?

why bruno lee says major affluent hker able to capitalise on stock market recovery?what about affluent singaporeans????

did these comments make them blur?????????????????

1.
Straits Times (8 July 2007) - Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee

The Straits Times

July 8, 2007

TOP OF THE NEWS

Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee

By Aaron Low

FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it.
Investors from developed countries are pouring money into the region and Singapore is enjoying good economic growth and social development.

Economic giant China is pulling in foreign investments of US$70 billion (S$106 billion) and India, US$10 billion a year. Foreign direct investments here have maintained at about S$6 billion to S$7 billion.

The stock markets of some Asean countries have risen by an average of 48 per cent. Asian current accounts are running surpluses with reserves doubling since 2003 to US$2,500 billion.

'If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years,' he said.

The key is having a good government which will get its policies right, to encourage economic growth.

Singapore's economic growth this year will be around 5 per cent to 6 per cent - 'not bad' for a maturing economy with a per capita income of over US$25,000, he said at a Tanjong Pagar GRC event in Ngee Ann City's civic plaza.

'Once you have growth, all problems can be managed. When you have no growth and you have unemployment and no jobs, then all problems become intractable,' he said.

Mr Lee told the sizeable crowd, many of them younger Singaporeans, that they were luckier than him when he was a young man.

'You got the best schools, technical colleges. Nobody is deprived of an education in Singapore and you can go abroad if you do well with bursaries and scholarships.'

He had this message for those in their teens and early 20s: 'You're a generation that is especially blessed. You have ahead of you 10, 15, 20 years.'

Singapore was able to push ahead when China and India adopted wrong economic policies. Although they have recovered and are growing strongly, Singapore is still ahead 'and our job is to stay ahead, and I believe we can'.

Mr Lee said Singapore is in this enviable position today because it had taken 'painful and unpopular measures' after the 1997 Asian financial crisis to get the economy into shape.

The data tells the story: some 9.7 million visitors came here last year; unemployment is at a low 2.9 per cent and 49,000 jobs were created between January and March.

More important, he said, the Government has revised its vision of Singapore - to turn it into a city with a lively night life, a more liberal arts and entertainment scene, the building of the two integrated resorts and the introduction of Formula 1 racing here next year.

'I believe you're going to see a transformation in Singapore. It'll be the most vibrant lively city in this part of the world. And I believe in the next five years, we'll see it evolve.'

aaronl@sph.com.sg

then TATA COMES THE SUBPRIME START

AUGUST9 2007: SG NATIONAL DAY:

WIKIPEDIA:
August 9: French investment bank BNP Paribas suspends three investment funds that invested in subprime mortgage debt,[97] due to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" [98] in the market. The bank's announcement is the first of many credit-loss and write-down announcements by banks, mortgage lenders and other institutional investors, as subprime assets went bad, due to defaults by subprime mortgage payers.[99] This announcement compels the intervention of the European Central Bank, pumping 95 billion euros into the European banking market.[100][101]

then next:

BBC:

Singapore officially in recession

It is Singapore's first recession since 2002
Singapore's economy shrank between July and September, confirming it was the first Asian country in recession in the current financial crisis.


IN MAR 2009....

WHEN MM LEE WAS BEARISH:

Full recovery at least 2 to 3 years away
Mar 21, 2009 - The Straits Times
Clarissa Oon, Senior Political Correspondent
Share | | Comment | E-mail to friend | Bookmark & Share

SINGAPORE will take two to three years to bounce back from the recession - and this is the optimistic scenario that assumes the United States recovers next year. The pessimistic forecast? Five to six years, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew,
who spoke last night at the launch of an alumni complex at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

MM Lee, who has been saying that Singapore's recovery hinges on that of the US, believes that the American economy is 'fundamentally sound'. Its
big companies such as General Motors and Chrysler are 'sound' despite their requests for further government aid.

He said he was reassured by US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's remarks last month that the economy would pick up by 2010, once
the government's stimulus package frees up lending to households and businesses.

Also, the same reliance on exports that has put Singapore's economy in the doldrums means that once the world's major economies rebound, 'we are going to bounce back'.


MM Lee took issue with criticisms of Singapore's economic model, such as that from a recent Wall Street Journal editorial which said the Republic needed to refocus on the domestic consumption of goods that are now produced for export.

'Four
million people to sustain industries supplying top-end goods to the world? That's rubbish.' Singapore has no choice but to export, he stressed.

What will further stand Singapore in good stead is its free trade agreements with countries such as the
US, Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand, he added.

With such conditions in place, 'if we don't prosper, we're stupid'.

Mr Lee made these points as he shared his thoughts on what Singapore would become in 25 years time, with some 300 alumni,
students and staff of NUS.

Singapore's prosperity would depend not just on its own efforts, but the state of the world a quarter century from now, he said, offering two possible scenarios.

The optimistic one is that the US and a rising China are
on good terms and there is cooperation between Beijing and its neighbours Japan and South Korea.

In this scenario, Singapore and its Asean neighbours will have banded together and achieved the goal of a single market and production base, because
'sooner or later, all the 10 countries will realise, unless we combine our markets we will be sidelined'.

What would be cause for alarm is if there were a clash between the world's major powers such as the US, China, the European Union and Russia,
creating 'a more dangerous Cold War'.

'This does not make for a prosperous world, there will be more arguments, more suspicion' and Singapore 'will not prosper so much' as a result.

In this pessimistic scenario, the Asean Economic Community would
be 'just a name - people are dragging their feet, never fully commit' and each Asean country would be aligned more closely to the big powers than with each other.

The actual outcome, he concluded, is likely to be somewhere in between the two
scenarios he sketched.

Later, in a dialogue, he was asked what would be a viable economic model for Asia as it emerges from the current crisis.

Smaller places such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan will continue to rely on exports, he said.

As
for China and India, while they have the alternative to eventually build up their economies to where they are less dependent on exports, neither country would be able to completely do away with exports, he said.

He was also asked what would happen to
Singapore if some People's Action Party (PAP) politicians break away to form a new party and take over the Government.

'If you have capable people then I'm not worried.'

Integrity is crucial, he added, as are ability, experience and willingness to
do things for the people.

However, he did not believe the country with its small population could sustain a two-party system as the PAP already has 'to scour the whole country to find the quality we now have'.

'You need character, commitment,
drive and (the) ability to connect with people. It's a very tough job.'


I WAS VERY BULLISH.......LOOK AT THE TIMINGS!!!!

Singapore out of recession


Tue, Oct 13, 2009
my paper



THE economy of Singapore grew by an estimated 0.8 per cent in the three months to September from a year ago, reinforcing the country's recovery from recession, official figures showed yesterday.

It was the country's first year-on-year expansion in five quarters and was based on July and August data. The estimate is expected to be revised when the full September numbers are available next month.

'A clear but modest recovery is underway globally, at least for the next three or four quarters,' theMinistry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement.



The Government upgraded its full-year growth forecast to a contraction of 2-2.5 per cent - a significant improvement from the previous estimate of a 4-6 per cent contraction.

'One-off factors such as restocking activities and fiscal stimulus measures will continue to support growth in the near term,' MTI said.

However, it cautioned that economic activity will 'probably remain below pre-crisis levels' because of the drag on demand in the developed economies.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualised basis, GDP surged 14.9 per cent following a 22 per cent expansion in the second quarter to June, said MTI. It was the second successive quarter-on-quarter growth period.

'Growth was driven by the continued expansion of biomedical and electronics manufacturing output, and improvements in the trade-related and tourism sectors...on the back of a gradual stabilisation in global economic conditions,' MTI said.

Mr Song Seng Wun, regional economist with CIMB-GK Research, said Singapore was 'firmly out of recession' with GDP expanding in the third quarter.

Singapore sank into recession in the second quarter of last year, hurt by falling demand for its exports in major markets.



MY BEST REVERSE INDICATOR..I WILL TELL MY KIDS IN FUTURE...

REVERSE INDICATOR ALWAYS WORKS!!

short sugar today

NEWS
ECONOMY | Staff Reporter, Hong Kong
Published: 15 Jul 10



HSBC says Hong Kongers most affluent in Asia

The majority (78%) of affluent Hong Kongers say they managed to either keep their wealth intact (30%) or grow their net worth (48%) in early 2010 compared to six months ago, as they led the region as the wealthiest in terms of liquid assets. The HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker survey shows that affluent Asian investors, among the youngest of the world’s wealthy, are riding on the recovery in the world’s fastest-growing markets while navigating through continued uncertainty in the West, particularly in Europe.

Hong Kongers hold average liquid assets of US$301,289, nearly double Singapore’s at US$183,145 and Taiwan’s at US$155,162. Mainlanders lead Asia’s new affluent with US$126,537 worth of liquid assets while Indians’ are at US$87,769 and Indonesians’ at US$61,697. Malaysia’s affluent hold around US$56,891 worth of liquid assets, according to an HSBC report.

Bruno Lee, Regional Head of Wealth Management Asia-Pacific, said: “In the early part of the year, the majority of Hong Kong affluent were able to capitalise on the stock market’s recovery and regained confidence in other asset classes that delivered balanced growth and tapped opportunities in fast-growing economies.”

Across Asia, over half of liquid assets are in deposits, with affluent Indonesians holding up to 95 per cent in cash. Across the affluent in Greater China (Hong Kong 44%, Taiwan 42% and mainland China 41%) and India (40%), at least 40 per cent of liquid assets are invested in equities, unit trusts and other investments.

The third wave of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker was conducted by Nielsen for HSBC across 2,072 affluent individuals aged 18-65 in seven key markets from February to April 2010. With the last wave conducted in September to October 2009, the survey gauged the views of people in the top 10 percentile of the population by liquid assets or mortgage value. Details of the survey are attached.

Net worth growth
Sixty nine per cent (vs 70%) of mainland Chinese affluent reported a rise in net worth compared to six months ago. The proportion increases to 88 per cent (vs 85%) with the addition of the affluent set who maintained their net worth.

Across Asia, except in Indonesia (80% vs 91%) and Taiwan (67% vs 75%), more affluent individuals say they maintained or grew their net worth over the last six months: 91 per cent in Singapore (vs 73%), 91 per cent in Malaysia (vs 87%) and 89 per cent in India (vs 82%).

Young affluent Asians
Affluent Mainlanders are the youngest among the region’s affluent with an average age of 36, followed by Indians at 38 and Indonesians at 39. Hong Kong’s affluent are the oldest at 48 years on average and close to four in 10 (39%) are double income couples with no kids (DINKS). At least 10 per cent of affluent respondents in the region, except in Taiwan, are single.

Mr Lee added: “Asia’s young and upwardly mobile working population is fast accumulating wealth to become this generation’s emerging affluent. Their wealth management needs are evolving as they cross over to the next life stages. In many key markets in the region, investments, particularly in local equities, are a key driver to wealth growth. Asia’s new affluent, particularly in mainland China, are increasingly becoming savvy investors as they look to other asset classes and to overseas opportunities for diversification.”

Current investments
At least 7 in 10 affluent in Greater China invest in equities, with Hong Kong leading at 87 per cent, mainland China at 71 per cent and Taiwan at 70 per cent. One third (34%) of liquid assets held by affluent Hong Kongers are invested in equities, the highest in the region, followed by 29 per cent by affluent Mainlanders and 26 per cent by affluent Taiwanese. Yet, affluent individuals in Taiwan and the Mainland are Greater China’s biggest equity investors spending an average of US$547,739 and US$371,885, respectively buying and selling stocks over the last 12 months. Hong Kong came in third at US$220,795.

The survey also shows that affluent Mainlanders have one of the most diversified investment portfolios in the region, with a tenth of liquid assets invested in unit trusts and over half of the respondents (55%) saying they own unit trusts. Affluent Mainlanders are the region’s biggest unit trust investors, spending over US$30,141 in unit trusts in the past 12 months.

Future investments
Affluent Asians continue to look to stocks for future growth, with India leading the pack (44%), followed by Hong Kong (42%) and mainland China (18%). The affluent in Greater China, led by 20 per cent in Hong Kong, 16 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan, plan to diversify into other investments, including the renminbi (RMB) in the next three months. Currently, close to a quarter (23%) of affluent individuals in Hong Kong hold RMB investments.

A wave of affluent investors taking up new products is expected from Greater China: 32 per cent in Hong Kong, 21 per cent in mainland China and 12 per cent in Taiwan. Over a tenth in Hong Kong (13%) and mainland China (14%) plan to invest in bonds for the first time. Fourteen per cent of affluent Mainlanders and 10 per cent of affluent Taiwanese plan to do overseas banking, particularly investments in securities and unit trusts.

Mr Lee said: “Our survey shows that in general, affluent Asians remain underinvested in the full range of assets with an overconcentration of investments in stocks compared to professionally managed mutual funds. This may have to do with restrictions on the type of product and market access in individual markets. However, Asia’s new affluent are showing increased maturity as investors as they have become wary about rushing into unfamiliar investments and are fast to change investment strategies to react to market changes.
“They are active self-investors who plan to explore new wealth opportunities, such as the RMB, emerging markets and other overseas investments. Increased involvement in their investments has helped mitigate the impact of the European crisis on affluent Asians’ wealth growth.”

HSBC Affluent Asian Risk Index
The survey also calculated a risk index to measure mentality and behaviour towards security and growth using a number of attributes. In a scale of 0-200 where 0 represents security and 200 for growth, markets tended to hover near the mean of 100 with Asia’s new affluent showing a balanced attitude towards risk compared to six months ago: Indonesia (100), India (100) and mainland China (99). The more mature markets of Taiwan (89), Malaysia (89), Singapore (82) and Hong Kong (82) show a shift to a security-oriented investment strategy. In Hong Kong and Singapore, the scores were driven by a cautious approach towards investing in products they are uncertain of or unfamiliar with.

Six in 10 affluent in the Mainland (66%), India (64%) and Hong Kong (62%) have a moderate appetite for risk. More affluent individuals in Singapore (47% vs 18%) and Taiwan (36% vs 18%) increased their appetite for capital protection compared to six months ago. Affluent investors from the emerging markets of Indonesia (25%) and Malaysia (23%) show a higher propensity for risk compared to the rest of the region.

23 Nov, 2010, 04.11AM IST,REUTERS
Thailand slides into 'technical' recession

BANGKOK: Thailand’s economy slipped into a technical recession in the third quarter, reinforcing signs of an Asia-wide slowdown as export growth cools, manufacturing ebbs and the impact of massive government stimulus spending fades.

South-East Asia’s second-biggest economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter after a revised 0.6% contraction in the second, data showed on Monday, reducing chances of another interest rate rise next month. The data reinforce signs of a slowdown across much of the region, from North Asian export powerhouses China, South Korea and Taiwan to South-East Asian “tigers” Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia. Strong growth in Asia has been one of the few bright spots for the struggling global economy.

Figures last week showed Taiwan’s economic growth slowing in the third quarter, while Singapore’s trade-reliant economy shrank 18.7% and Indonesia reported this month its first slowdown in annual growth in five quarters. From a year earlier, Thailand grew 6.7% in the quarter, largely in line with economists’ forecasts and slowing from growth of 9.2% in the second quarter, the data from the state planning agency showed.

“Looking forward, we expect weaker global demand to bring Thailand’s economic growth to below trend in the fourth quarter of 2010, and in the first half of 2011,” said Usara Wilaipich, a Bangkok-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Malaysia’s economic growth slowed more than expected to 5.3% in the third quarter from 8.9% in the second, its central bank said on Monday, noting growth in the second half of the year and in early next year was moderating.

OCBC economist Gundy Cahyadi said growth almost stalled in the third quarter from the previous three months, though few analysts give quarter-on-quarter figures. The Asian slowdown has been exacerbated by the US dollar’s slide, which has driven up regional currencies and started to erode export revenue.

The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its trend-setting one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75% at its next policy-setting meeting on December 1, said Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailands state economic planning agency.

Private economists echoed that view after the data, which was marginally better than a deeper 0.4 per cent contraction expected by most economists in a Reuters survey.

``We expect less aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Thailand and possible delays on interest rate hikes next year,’’ said Isara Ordeedolchest, an economist at KT Zeamico Securities, a stock brokerage in Bangkok.

Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong, economist at Kasikorn Research Centre, expects the economy to contract again in the fourth quarter, hurt by a nearly 12 per cent rise in the baht this year against the dollar to a 13-year high and floods that have killed more than 200 people since October.

RATES SEEN ON HOLD

Thailands debt market has largely priced in a rate pause next month, with one-year swap rates down by 22 basis points in the past two weeks. Government bond yields were barely changed after Mondays economic data.

Indonesias central bank is also seen pausing to keep its policy rate on hold at a record low 6.5 per cent well into 2011 as it tries to avoid encouraging an even bigger flow of investment capital to its markets.

Despite the slowdown, Thailands state planning agency raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 7.9 per cent from 7.0-7.5 per cent projected in August, and tipped growth of between 3.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent in 2011.

Agency chief Arkhom said the quarterly contraction was due to lower state spending and a slowdown in private investment.

``Its cyclical that Q3 is usually weaker than other quarters,’’ he told reporters, adding that the flooding across much of Thailand over October and November shaved economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.

He said the fourth-quarter performance depended on strength in exports which his agency expected to rise 25.1 per cent this year before slowing to about half that rate of growth next year.

The data puts Thailand technically in recession after two straight quarters of economic contraction.

Earlier data had indicated the economy grew 0.2 per cent in the second quarter from the first, but that was revised down to show it had contracted, due largely to political unrest over April and May in which more than 90 people were killed.

SET:nov23:1009
dec 23:1021
GOT MEANING?

SET UP FROM 734 TO 1021 IN 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


China GDP Growth Rate

The Chinese economy expanded 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2010, as measured by the year-over-year change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP YoY). Unlike the commonly used quarterly GDP growth rate the annual GDP growth rate takes into account a full year of economic activity, thus avoiding the need to make any type of seasonal adjustment. The China Gross Domestic Product is worth 4909 billion dollars or 7.92% of the world economy, according to the World Bank. From 1989 until 2010, China's average annual GDP Growth was 9.30 percent reaching an historical high of 14.20 percent in December of 1992 and a record low of 3.80 percent in December of 1990. This page includes: China GDP Growth Rate chart, historical data and news.

Country Interest Rate Growth Rate Inflation Rate Jobless Rate Current Account Exchange Rate
China 5.56% 9.60% 5.10% 4.20% 70500 6.6640

Year Mar Jun Sep Dec
2010 11.90 10.30 9.60
2009 6.20 7.90 9.10 10.70
2008 10.60 10.10 9.00 6.80



China's GDP Slows to 9.6%
Published: 10/22/2010 8:23:09 AM By: TradingEconomic.com

China's economy grew by 9.6% in the third quarter, indicating a slight deceleration in growth this year as the government's cooling measures appeared to have had some effect.

The numbers compared to 10.3% on the second quarter and 11.9% in the first, but at the same time consumer price index (CPI)inflation hit a two year high of 3.6% in September.

While the GDP figures will please the country's fiscal policy makers who have been trying to cool the pace of growth, the stubborn inflation numbers will be more of an issue.

The government had set a ceiling for inflation levels at the start of 2010 at 3%, and had predicted that inflation would fall well below that figure during the second half of the year.

CPI inflation stood at 3.5% in August, with most of the rise blamed on volatile food prices. The inflation hike will be of concern to market watchers who will expect Chinese growth to remain strong over the coming months.

WHY SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DOWN FOR THE YEAR 2010?????????

Acquisition of POSBank
In 1998, DBS Bank merged with POSBank, giving it a dominant market share with over four million customers.

---FROM WIKIPEDIA

DE JA VU???

On February 27, 2009, Citigroup announced that the United States government would take a 36% equity stake in the company by converting $25 billion in emergency aid into common shares; the stake was reduced to 27% after Citigroup sold $21 billion of common shares and equity in the largest single share sale in US history, surpassing Bank of America's $19 billion share sale one month prior.

Citigroup is one of the Big Four banks in the United States, along with Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo.--from wikipedia

WHEN DID THE STOCKMARKET BOTTOM????IS THIS NOT A PLOY OR WHAT????

after the US GOVT BOUGHT ALL THAT THEY WANTED TO--THE STOCKMARKET "FORGOT" HOW TO DROP!!!

Goldman Sachs Says Hong Kong Set to Benefit Most from Quantitative Easing

By Nick Gentle - Nov 3, 2010 8:04 AM

Goldman Sach Group Inc. raised its 12-month target for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index to 29,000, saying the city has the most to gain from extra liquidity released by quantitative easing programs and China’s growth.

Hong Kong will benefit most from a structural capital relocation away from developed markets to emerging ones, Goldman analysts said in a report today. They said the MSCI Hong Kong Index offered a better proxy for Hong Kong growth than the Hang Seng Index, for which China stocks make up 56 percent of its market capitalization.

The analysts said Hong Kong property stocks such as Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. and Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd. would benefit from liquidity-driven real estate inflation.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010
People's Daily: International Investment Bank Caused Crash
By staff reporters Sun Huixia and Ma Yuan 12.01.2010 20:00

People's Daily Says Investment Bank Responsible for Plunge
In an apparent effort to influence the stock market, the People's Daily opposed big fluctuations in stock market

(Beijing) - China's official mouthpiece, the People's Daily, said December 1 that an international investment bank manipulated stock markets for its own gain and a group email that it sent to investors triggered off a plunge in share prices on November 12
In a commentary contributed by Shi Jianxun, a professor at Tongji University, an unnamed international investment bank allegedly sent emails to investors, advising them to sell their shares. The article, titled "Where is China's stock market heading in the next two decades?" said that rumors of impending stamp taxes also sent the market into a tailspin.

On November 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 5.16 percent, the largest single-day drop in 2010 so far. China Securities Regulatory Commission has started a probe into the alleged manipulation and has not released their findings.

The article, published on the front page of the overseas edition of the People's Daily, said that China should avoid dramatic fluctuations in the stock market and make it a major vehicle to increase the wealth of the masses. The overseas edition targets audiences outside of the mainland.

"Big fluctuations on the stock market have a remarkable impact not only on economic development, but also on the harmony and stability of the society," said the commentary.

About 150 million Chinese invest in stock markets and investors are from all walks of life, said the commentary, adding that any move in the stock market would rattle the nerves of millions of people.

The commentary was the second in two weeks for the state-run newspaper to voice its strong support for a bullish market. In the commentary published last Wednesday, the stock market was described as the best place to absorb excess liquidity.

"China's fight against inflation will not come at the expense of a stock market collapse. The market should not overreact to the measures by the government to curb inflation," said the previous commentary.

The commentary added that stock markets still lack fairness, accountability and transparency.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange were launched two decades ago with the official mission to facilitate state-owned companies in their corporate financing. All listings still need to be approved by securities regulator, rather than by the exchanges.





Goldman Advises Clients To Take Profits On "Long China" Trade
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/11/2010 12:16 -0500




After last night's completely unsurprising "beat" of Chinese annualized inflation of 4.4%, Goldman today has come out with a note which, however, is very surprising: Goldman's Robin Brooks and Dominic Wilson have decided to close out their "long China" recommendation, which was one of the firm's Top 2010 Trades presented previously on Zero Hedge. And while the profit on the trade of 11.3% is appealing, the reason for the unwind makes little sense. As everyone had been fully aware (see our note here) in advance, the inflation number would come out at 4.4% (and so it did). To use this as an argument for tightening expectations seems a little disingenuous. Which begs the question: why is Goldman truly no longer bullish on China? And does this mean that the firm no longer buys Jim O'Neill latest decoupling thesis? Lastly, as China has been a key dynamo for world growth, if there is little equity upside to be had in the one last capitalist country, what can we say about the less than capitalist America? This is further compounded by Jan Hatzius' suddenly rosy again outlook on the US economy (coupled with Goldman's ongoing demands for up to $2 trillion in QE, which with every passing day is becoming increasingly more improbable)...

From Goldman Sachs:

Following yesterday’s RRR hikes, overnight China’s CPI inflation came in at 4.4%, above consensus of 4.0%, while industrial production rose by 13.1%, slightly short of consensus expectations of 13.4%. Money growth remained robust at 19.3% yoy. These data reinforce our view that activity remains solid even as inflation is picking up, so that more tightening measures are likely on the way. Jobs data in Australia was stronger than the headline number suggests (5.4% vs consensus of 5.0%), with the rise in the unemployment rate due to a jump in labor force participation. The main even today and tomorrow will the G-20 summit of heads of state.

Yesterday we closed our long China (HSCEI) equities recommendation and long EEM/SPX recommendation with potential gains of roughly 11.3% and 2.3% respectively. With the US cyclical data (ISM and Payrolls) surprising on the upside last week, initial jobless claims continuing to trend lower, and inflation and policy tightening back squarely on the EM policy agenda, the near term outlook for this type of relative trade versus the US is more muddied than it has been for some time. The China (HSCEI) equities top trade too has moved up strongly in the last few months on the back of better cyclical data and easier policy. With successive inflation prints above the policymakers’ comfort zone, another hike in the reserve rate earlier today, and more policy tightening likely in the works, the near-term risk/reward for this position also looks unappealing as we approach the year-end ‘roll-off’. This “risk-management” aside, we continue to like the long-term outlook for EM equities: growth remains robust, and low interest rates in the majors should continue to exert downward pressure on the cost of funding for EM corporates. In the near term the inflation risk in some EM economies is growing and real, but as long as it is dealt with, equities should remain broadly well-supported, but after a strong run since September, it will be important to be more selective going forward.

As for how Goldman's top 9 trades of 2010 have fared so far, below is a summary - of the 9 original trades, 4 have been closed (2 at a loss, 2 at profit), and 5 remain still open.

Stay short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap, opened at 28.20, with a target of 21, now at 25.466.
Stay long Russian Equities (RDXUSD), opened at 1645.9 for a target of 2050, now at 1804.00.
Stay long GBP/NZD, opened at 2.29, with a target of 2.60, now at 2.0531.
Close short 2-yr GBP swap rates vs. long 2-yr AUD swap rates on a 1-yr forward basis, opened at -268.5 bp, for a potential loss of 24 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close short 2-yr TRY rates through cross-currency swaps, opened at 8.77%, with a target of 12.0%, for a potential loss of 168 bp (inclusive of carry).
Close long 5yr credit protection in Spain vs. short 5yr credit protection in Ireland at 13 bp, opened at 70 bp, with a target of 20 bp, for a potential profit of 2.9% (inclusive of carry).
Stay long the GS FX Growth Current, opened at 103.5, with a target of 111.8, now at 104.1.
Stay long PLN/JPY, opened at 32.1, with a target of 37.5, now at 28.9471.
Close long Chinese Equities (HSCEI), opened at 12616.01 on 01 April 2010, with a target of 15000, for a potential profit of 11.3%.

HOW CAN HSI LONG,HSCEI SELL?THIS NEVER HAPPEN IN HISTORY!!!LETS CHECK THE PERFORMANCE OF HSI, HSCEI AFTER THE GOLDMAN REPORT

HSI:24876 ON NOV 5TH 2010(day of report) DEC 15:22975---DOWN 7.6PERCENT

hscei:13889 ON NOV 10 2010( day of report) DEC 15: 12585---DOWN 9.3PERCENT

BOTH DOWN RIGHT?I WANT TO SEE HOW HSCEI CAN PLUNGE WHEN HSI GO UP TO 29K

GOLDMAN SUCKS

wed 1dec 2010:
same pattern as monday: hangseng, sti rally in late afternoon.
at night, us surge up 2+pc

commodities surge,wheat up 6.5pc

TUES nov30 manipulation pattern
hsi drop 158 points,sti drop 13 points.

this drop is a far cry from shanghai comp dropping 3.5pc in the day when hsi drop only 1.1pc.--suggesting more upside

HENCE WE GOT THE ANSWER from usmkt at nite..
usmkt drop also by same %tage--hence this drop is factored in by hsi yesterday.

gold,silver surge at night,breaking the 50mark.

LOOK AT THE SIMILARITY:

STAGE ONE

FROM MAR 09 2010 SP500 UP FROM 672 TO 930 MAY4TH 2010:9WEEKS

FROM AUG30 2010,SP500 UP FROM 1030 TO 1227 IN 10 WEEKS:NOV1ST WEEK

AFTER 1ST LEG OF CHIONG MUST REST RIGHT??

STAGE TWO:

FROM MAY4TH 2010 ,SP500 DROP TO 878 AND RESTED FOR 3 WEEKS

THIS IS WHAT EXACTLY IS HAPPENING NOW:
WEEK STARTING 29NOV 2010 IS THE 4TH WEEK:

Sp500 drop from 1227 to 1173--either this week we get a surge OR its the last week of consolidation

next STAGE 3

will come the fake surge to 1240-1250,IN DEC 1ST,2ND WEEK,THEN A ONE MONTH(4WEEK) FALL OF 100POINTS TO 1140

exactly like 1st week june to 1st week july2010


SO TECHNICAL!!!1140 WAS THE BREAKOUT POINT

now lets look at hangseng:

STAGE ONE:

mar09:hsi rose from 11344 to 15977:4500points in6 weeks(same as usmkt)

aug30 to oct 1st week:7weeks hsi rose from 20372 to 23866: 3500POINTS

STAGE TWO:

THEN IT RESTED FOR TWO WEEKS IN MAY2010:DROP A TOTAL OF 15977 TO 14457 :1500 !!

NOW it also drop about 1000points from 23866 and rested for 2 weeks(approx 3500/4500 x 1500)

STAGE 3:

then it shoot up in 1st week of may:to 17442(up about 3000points)

now IT AlsO SHOOT UP about 2000points from 22800s to 24988

STAGE 4:the REST

hsi drop 1000points from 1st week of may 2010 to 3rd week of may 2010

now hsi drop 2000 points from 1st wek of nov to 4th week of november

STAGE 5:THE SHOOT!!

hsi shoots up 2800 points from last week of may to 2nd week of june 2010.
the high on june8th 2010 is 19161,higher than 17440,may1st week high

hence we can conclude december 1st,2nd week will be the shoot!!
AND LIKELY TO GO AT LEAST 2800 POINTS FROM 22870 TO ABOUT 25600S in dec 2nd week 2010


WE WILL CONTINUE ONCE WE REACH DECEMBER 2ND WEEK

from today 30nov2010 onwards,i will be creating a new compilation of every day manipulation patterns in hsi,sti,usmkt

30nov2010

hsi started by going lower all the wy to the last hour at 3pm,then it shoot up 300points,1.3pc.

Sti also followed suit and close flat.

US market opened down 1.3pc and rocket up also in the last hour at 4am 1.3pc and close flat

RATIONALE?

HSI HAS FALLEN MORE THAN STI AND DOW.HENCE HSI CLOSE UP IN LAST HOUR WHILE DOW OPENED LOWER BY 1.3PC AND CLOSE FLAT.

LETS CHECK THE RATIONALE:

HSI 24988 DROP TO 22782,TOTAL 8.8PC
SP500 ONLY FROM 1227 TO 1173 TOTAL: 4.4PC

EXACTLY HALF!!!!!
HENCE U ALSO CAN DEDUCE THAT 22782 HSI AND 1173 SP500,3150STI IS GOING TO BE THE BASE TO PROJECT UPWARDS FROM:

HENCE HSI WILL "OUTPERFORM" BOTH STI AND DOW IN THE COMINNG DAYS UNTIL WE REACH 1225-1227 IN SP500.

THE SURGE IN HANGSENG WILL BE "AIDED" BY A KELONGLY "COINCIDENTAL" RISE IN THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE.

China Hedge Funds Outperformed Rivals in 2009 0 comments
Jan 23, 2010 1:09 AM
Font: PrintEmail Recommend 0 Share this page
Share0 I made a list of 2009 performance results for mainland China-based hedge fund managers. Needless to say, it is very impressive that those managers had done well in the past year, especially comparing to their rivals in other Asian regions.



Here is a table with the top performing hedge fund managers for 2009.



Fund
Return in 2009
Strategy
Manager

Golden China Fund
182.40%
Equity Long Short
Greenwoods Asset Management

Pinpoint Opportunities Fund
142.23%
Equity Long Short
Pinpoint Capital Management

Springs China Opportunities US Fund
105.45%
Equity Long Short
Springs Capital

Rising ABH Growth Fund
96.78%
Global Macro
Rising Fund Management

China Dragon Engine Fund
79.72%
Multi-Strategies
Cypress House Asset Management

Pinpoint China Fund
78.65%
Equity Long Short
Pinpoint Capital Management

Greenwoods China Plus
70.63%
Equity Long Short
Greenwoods Asset Management

Congrong Advantage Fund II
64.80%
Equity Long Only
Congrong Investment Management

Congrong Advantage Fund I
59.76%
Equity Long Only
Congrong Investment Management

SMC China Fund
53.01%
Equitly Long Only
Simon Murray & Co. Cayman

Wisdom Sustainable Growth
46.77%
Equitly Long Only
Wisdom Investment Management

Congrong Advantage Fund III
46.43%
Equity Long Only
Congrong Investment Management

Pinpoint Asia Strategies
40.26%
Multi-Strategies
Pinpoint Capital Management

Source: Bloomberg




As you can see, hedge funds run by local Chinese performed well in 2009, especially Lu Jun’s Congrong Investment Management. I just heard that the firm would relocate to another building and want to enlarge their investment team in the next year. It is an amazing time for Chinese hedge funds. If you check other performance results which haven’t been tracked by Bloomberg, you would get to know more outstanding fund managers. For instance, Guangdong-based New Value Investment’s flagship fund, New Value II fund, was up 192.57% in 2009 and ranked No. 1 in all Chinese onshore hedge funds. New Value fund, another product managed by the house, gained 156.47%. But now, only local Chinese investors are allowed to access these funds. Once those fund managers could launch offshore products, it will be a wonderful time for global investors to enjoy their capabilities in stock market.


LOOK AT MY DARLING PINPOINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I AM A PROUD INVESTOR IN PINPOINT SINCE 2006

compare the 1966-1982 bear market with 2000-2016??bear market many many similiarities.
1.the shape
2.the subprime bottom in 2008 looks exactly like the 1975,which made a lower low

LETS WELCOME THE SECULAR BULL IN THE US MARKET

Brian Kelly: QE2 Could Be Bullish for US Dollar
Published: Monday, 18 Oct 2010 | 11:35 AM ET Text Size By: Brian Kelly, "Fast" Contributor


On Friday, the financial markets were abuzz with the notion that Ben Bernanke stated “all other things being equal, there appears to be a case for more action.” The knee jerk reaction was predictable, the US Dollar fell and bonds climbed, however, by the end of the US trading session these trends had reversed … why?

I would point to other portions of Chairman Bernanke’s speech where he spoke about the risk and rewards of unconventional monetary policy. One of the most surprising admissions by the Chairman was that he did not know the ultimate impact of QE2. From the speech:

"One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public."

Perhaps this was simply refreshing honesty which the market is unaccustomed too after the Greenspeak era. However, the fact remains that the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who did his doctoral work on the Great Depression and the deleterious impact of a waning money supply, is concerned about the unintended and unknown consequences of his actions. The financials markets have been expecting higher bond prices and a weaker dollar, but this expectation is flawed. Through QE2 the US Fed is attempting to spur financial speculation which they hope will foster real investment in property, plant, and equipment. By extension these facilities will need to be filled with workers and voila…unemployment drops.

Lower Bond Prices, Higher Yield

While the market has focused in the mechanism for QE2, i.e. asset purchases, it has completely ignored the primary tool used by the US Federal Reserve…communication. Chairman Bernanke, in numerous speeches and papers, has argued that Federal Reserve policy is not limited to interest rates and money supply, he suggests that the first step for policy makers is to communicate the Fed’ s intentions. If executed flawlessly, the Fed may not even need to write one buy ticket for Treasury securities. So has it worked?




The above chart illustrates market expectations for inflation over the next five years; it is simply the 5 year Treasury Rate minus the 5 year TIPs rate. As the chart shows, without buying a single Treasury Bill, Note or Bond, the US Fed has successfully increased inflation expectations from 1.2% to over 1.6%...in less than a month. At this pace, inflation expectations will be at 2% (the Fed’s target) by the time of the November FOMC meeting. The implication is that market expectations of a massive bond buying program could be incorrect. Furthermore, if financial speculation leads to real economic investment and hiring then further QE is not needed.

Impact on the Dollar

Without a massive bond buying program the linchpin of the dollar bear argument disappears - the Fed will not be “printing money” and will not destroy the dollar. In fact, QE2 could be bullish for the US dollar. The Fed’s verbal commitment to support asset prices coupled with its ability to buy assets should provide support in the US financial markets. Moreover, while yields may move slightly higher due to inflationary expectations the US stock market will remain relatively attractive as compared to bonds. Therefore, from an investor’s perspective US assets become attractive. The “Goldilocks” environment the Fed is attempting to create could result in foreign investor interest in the US markets as relatively low rates and the Bernanke “put option” make the US a safer place to invest. This foreign investment interest would be supportive of the US dollar. Moreover, as other countries attempt to weaken their currency the US dollar will strengthen, making US investments even more attractive.

How We Are Playing It

The simplest way to play a stronger US dollar is a long position in the US Dollar Bullish ETF [UUP 22.3193 -0.0207 (-0.09%) ]. This ETF gives an investor broad exposure to dollar strength; additionally, the US equity markets may need a period of adjustment to a stronger dollar. A strong US Dollar does not always mean lower stock prices; in fact if the Fed is successful the real economy will begin to improve. However, the current market mindset is that a strong dollar is bad for stock prices. It may take some time before the markets change their view and thus the direct currency play via UUP appears to be the most attractive investment.

Disclosure: Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital are long UUP.


exactly my view

1st half in the sp500

666 to 950:mar09 to jun09(went thru the 200day MA)
950 to 870:jun 09 to jul09(retest the 200day MA and bounce off the 200day MA)
870 to 1150:jul09 to jan10
1150 to 1040:jan10 to feb10
1040 to 1220:feb10 to apr2010

IF WE EXTRAPOLATE THE SAME TREND into the 2nd half:lets see the stunning coincidence!

1040 to 1320:sept2010 to dec2010(go thru the 200 WEEK MA at currently around 1200)
1320 to 1240:dec2010 to jan 2011(the 200wk value will increase when sp500 goes up,around 1220-1240 then)
1240 to 1520:jan 2011 to jul2011
1520 to 1410:jul2011 to aug2011
1410 to 1590: aug2011 to oct2011

HOW COINCIDENTAL THE MANNER THAT SP500 AFTER THE CORRECTION IN DEC2010 WILL BOUNCE OFF THE 200WEEK MA THE SAME MANNER AS IT BOUNCES OFF THE 200DAY MA
PLUS the final value of the 2nd half will be also the same 1590 the all time highs!!!

More want transfer out of Singapore
By Elizabeth Soh
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20101009/ST_17798250.jpg
A poster at an agency in Lucky Plaza advertises transfers for maids to Hong Kong. There, experienced maids can earn about double their pay here. -- ST PHOTO: NG SOR LUAN

THE 'maid crunch' may get worse, with agencies reporting a recent surge in inquiries from maids here who are hoping to transfer to places like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

As it is, employers here are already finding it more difficult to hire maids after the Philippine authorities recently tightened rules on Filipinos leaving for jobs abroad. The shortfall in supply could worsen with more maids here choosing to leave for other places, instead of renewing their contracts.

While such a trend is not new, maid agencies say they have noticed a surge in such inquiries this year. Of the 10 maid agencies polled by The Straits Times, eight say they have seen a 50 to 70 per cent jump in inquiries from maids in the past six months about transferring to places like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Said maid agent Agnes Tan, 46: 'Out of the 30 applications I handle each month, about 10 are overseas transfers, compared to fewer than five a month last year.'

Ms Shirley Ng, president of the Association of Employment Agencies Singapore, confirmed such a trend.

Better pay is a key pull factor. An Indonesian or Filipino maid with four to six years of experience can earn $800 in Hong Kong, compared to just $450 here.

With fewer maids heading to Singapore, agencies are also increasingly publicising such transfer services as an alternative source of revenue.

At Lucky Plaza, a sign on the door of one maid agency advertises: 'Quick transfer to Hong Kong, Higher Pay!'

Over at Orchard Plaza, a maid agency has pamphlets on its desk advertising transfers to places like Saudi Arabia, Spain and even Norway.

Maids have to fork out about $2,300 to $3,000 to pay for transfers. Agencies here take a cut of about $300 - roughly the same amount they make bringing in a maid to Singapore.

'The only way we can make money now is to cater to the needs of those already here,' said an agent who declined to be named.

Mrs Marylou Cuneta, 37, is a maid who left for Hong Kong in January after eight years here. She now earns about $900 a month - double what she used to make.

She told The Straits Times: 'I am very happy in my current job - but I know I would not have got it if I didn't work in Singapore first.'

Additional reporting by Teh Joo Lin


THIS IS MY MESSAGE TO SINGAPOREANS.DONT EVER THINK YOUR MONEY TOO BIG..RIDICULOUS.I HAVE HEARD OF CASES(my ex nus classmate) ONE MAID IN CHARGE OF A 6PEOPLE HOUSEHOLD,2STOREY HUDC,think what?pay very big?can even tell me maid dont do, can hire another one.soon, all maids will shun singapore,and only the lousy ones come here.want to have more children, live in bigger house,BE PREPARED TO PAY MORE!!
dont ever take maids for granted
IN HONGKONG,SMALLER HOUSE plus LOWER BIRTH RATE, plus HIGHER pay,who doesnt want?