why sp500 wont end cyclical bull now?
1.average bullmkt 43months(cnbc)
2.up to now,US markets JUST experience ONE correction in april to august 2010,a drop of 17percent in sp500,any drop now will just be temporary and a retracement.
stockmarkets DONT END cyclical bull after so soon,this new upleg only FIVE months old from august2010.
3.the gradient of cyclical bull tends to tally with that of the gradient of the cyclical bear.
Eg. from 2000-2003,sp500 drop 3years BUT took 4.5years to go to 2000 highs at 1580.
flatter gradient of cylical bear will TALLY with flatter gradient of next coming cyclical bull.
2007-2009mar09,the gradient of drop in the cyclical bear was much steeper than the gradient in 2000-2003,HENCE the gradient of cyclical bull is also much steeper than the gradient of cyclical bull in 2003-2007.
4.the timing---CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.why?because shorting induces panic as investors view loss more painful than gains.
2000-2003 bear mkt last 3 years
2003-2007 bull mkt last 4.5years
2007-2009 bear mkt last 1.5years(oct 2007-mar2009)
2009-201??? bullmkt last >1.5years
since mar09 was the sp500 final low,u add 1.5years u will get 2010 august WHICH IS WHY THE SP500 "NEGLECTED" the EURO CRISIS BECAUSE CYCLICAL BULL ALWAYS LAST LONGER THAN CYCLICAL BEAR.
IF WE WERE TO FOLLOW THE SAME ADDING 1.5YEARS TO THE CYCLICAL BEAR,THIS cyclical bull from 2009-201?? MAY probably end in 2012march...
IF YOU LOOK AT THE HIDDEN SUBTLE HINTS OF THE MARKET,THE TIMING OF THE EURO CRISIS END,the surge,the ratios,the gradients,
YOU WILL KNOW ANY DROP IS JUST A RETRACEMENT,and not the end.
i dont know why average person does not have the TIME or INTEREST to do such research and loves to shoot off about economy not good,a lot of worries about unemployment,euro crisis,uncertain times,subprime "worst crisis since depression", student debt crisis,china property bubble,china inflation worries,trade wars,currency manipulation---
IF YOU ARE SO SCARED,PLEASE DONT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET...u want everything nice story for you to hear then you enter??
u mean stockmarket is being pushed up by retail players???stockmarket need to wait for laymen to have jobs,bonus,got savings to push up the market.LAYMEN no jobs,STOCKMARKET CANT GO UP??
IF YOU THINK LIKE THAT,U R INDEED A FUCKING MORON.i advise my relative to buy in feb09,BUT IN THE END,he thinks he outsmart me by saying he is willing to forego a percentage for safety.WHAT SAFETY??
in the end,sti,hangseng WENT UP near 100PERCENT IN FOUR-FIVE MONTHS...FOREGO 100%??
100percent too little,can afford to forego???
I SINCERELY ADVISE PEOPLE WITH NO GUTS TO STAY OUT OF STOCKMARKET AND PLEASE DONT COOK UP THIS N THAT TO EXPLAIN FOR YOUR OWN FAILURES.which times is NOT uncertain?you know when you are going to die?
it has been proven TIME AND AGAIN that stockmarket DOES NOT need to wait for people to have jobs,then got money to invest.i dont know why some people can leave such STUPID and IGNORANT comments like those i see in cnbc forum and i pasted below.
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS
THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF
PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU
SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations
UPTRENDS-
1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend
2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.
3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.
4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.
5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.
6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.
7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.
8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.
9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.
10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,
CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS
1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500
2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks
3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------
eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed
eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..
1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065
-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010
-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge
-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010
2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.
-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011
-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370
-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders
-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074
THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG
LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN
1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"
2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"
3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.
4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS
5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT
6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF
I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!
1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??
GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.
19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK
3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK
4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????
N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)
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