17th october 2012-detailed analysis of singapore property cycle with sibor link.-WHY CAN'T THOSE WHO BOUGHT PRIVATE CONDOMINIUMS/APARTMENTS IN 2011 THINK WITH THEIR ASSES?

AS YOU CAN ALL SEE FOR YOURSELVES THE DANGER OF SINGAPORE PRIVATE PROPERTY NOW.SIBOR IS FROM 1988 TO 2008,2000 TO NOW 2011(BLACK)AND PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX IS FROM 1993 TO 2012.

LET US TRACE THE DIFFERENT STAGES

STAGE 1:

FROM 1993 TO 1996,PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY INDEX ROSE FROM 80 TO 180,125% RISE,BUT SIBOR IN RANGE FROM 1+ % TO 4+% AND BACK TO 2% AT 1996.

STAGE 2:

FROM 1996 TO 1999 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY INDEX CRASHED FROM 180 TO 100,A PLUNGE OF 50+%,THIS CORRESPONDS WITH SIBOR SHOOTING BACK UP TO 7+%.

STAGE 3: SHOWS THE 1ST WEAKNESS IN SINGAPORE PRIVATE PROPERTY.

FROM 1999 TO 2000,PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX ROSE ONLY 40% FROM 100 TO 140 BUT SIBOR CRASHED FROM 7+% PEAK TO AROUND 2%

STAGE 4: SHOWS SECOND WEAKNESS IN SINGAPORE PRIVATE PROPERTY(I DONT THINK SARS HAS A PART TO PLAY,AS SARS ENDED IN MAY 2003)

Singapore free from SARS ban at end of month

Last updated at 15:58 30 May 2003
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has announced that Singapore will no longer be on the list of countries affected by Sever Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) from the 31 May.
After the Geneva-based health organisation confirmed the news, Singapore's health ministry responded by saying: 'It is a recognition of the comprehensive and rigorous measures that have been put in place in Singapore.'
Hong Kong and the Guangdong province of China were removed from the WHO's list with immediate effect earlier this week.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-590000/Singapore-free-SARS-ban-end-month.html#ixzz29Zd153ou

FROM 2000 TO 2005.SIBOR MADE A NEW LOW,GOING TO BELOW 1%,BUT PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX INSTEAD OF GOING UP,ALSO WENT DOWN FROM 140 TO 110

STAGE 5: SIMILAR TO STAGE 1,SIBOR STUCK IN A RANGE BUT THE GAINS IN PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX WAS MUCH LESSER THAN THE STAGE 1'S 125%,ONLY AROUND 50%,SHOWING SIGNS OF "UNAFFORDABILITY"

FROM 2005-2008,PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX ROSE MORE THAN 50%,ALMOST HITTING THE 1996 PEAK.SIBOR STUCK IN 1+% TO 3+% RANGE AND DROPPING BACK DOWN TO 1+% RANGE IN 2008.

STAGE 6:SHOWS THE 3RD WEAKNESS IN SINGAPORE PRIVATE PROPERTY

USA SUBPRIME CAME AND IT WAS JUST A KNEE JERK REACTION FOR SINGAPORE PROPERTIES AS THE GOVERNMENT SLASHED INTEREST TO NEAR ZERO.PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX DROPPED FROM 180 TO NEAR 140 AND REBOUNDED TO THE CURRENT 200s.

IN THE FACE OF STRONG GDP,AND RECORD LOW SIBOR AT NEAR ZERO,A REDUCTION OF AROUND 3% POINTS FROM 1996 PEAK IN HOUSING INDEX,THE HOUSING INDEX WAS ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER THAN THE 1996 PEAK,AROUND +10%.

3 signs of SLUGGISHNESS in private property index.IF ECONOMY IS REALLY THAT STRONG,AND SIBOR NEAR ZERO,SHOULD NOT PRIVATE PROPERTY INDEX ROCKET 30-50% HIGHER THAN 1996?WHY IS IT SO SLUGGISH AT THE DOUBLE TOP??

QUESTIONS ASKED:

1)WHO IS SO STUPID TO LOAN YOU 6 OR 7 DIGITS PROPERTY LOANS AT 1+% PROPERTY LOAN INTEREST AND WHEN THE ECONOMY IS SO STRONG??SHOULD NOT ADULTS QUERY THERE MIGHT BE A HIDDEN AGENDA??WHY CANT BANKS SAVE THE 6,7 DIGITS LOAN AND USE THE MONEY FOR THEMSELVES TO BUY UP PROPERTIES AND EARN??

Q2)WHO IS SO FUCKING STUPID TO GO INTO PRIVATE PROPERTIES AFTER PROPERTY STOCKS LIKE CAPITALAND CRASHED FROM S$8+ TO AROUND S$2+,CDL 17 CRASH T0 4?STOCKMARKET IS A FORWARD INDICATOR ABOUT THE ECONOMY.IT IS NOT A PURE GAMBLING PLACE.

till today,capitaland is still at S$3+ AND CDL IS BETTER AT S$11.BOTH ARE STILL BEHIND THE STI,MAIN INDEX is only 30% from all time max3906,capitaland is 160% away from $8+,CDL is 50% away from $17+.


Q3)with sgd at record high,SIBOR AT RECORD LOW,SINGAPORE ECONOMY,WHICH I EXPECTED LONG TIME AGO,TO slip into negative growth,HAS FINALLY DONE IT IN Q3 2012-A TRIPLE WHAMMY IS IN STORE for private property owners WHO ENTERED LATE INTO THE GAME.

im a econs major also,other than a mathematics major.singapore is "beseiged" with low gdp,and high inflation problems currently in 2012.WITH USD KEEP ON GOING DOWN AGAINST THE SGD,SO WILL SINGAPORE GDP.THIS WILL CREATE A DOUBLE PROBLEM.USD KEEP ON GOING DOWN WILL ALSO CREATE INFLATION IN SINGAPORE.SIBOR CAN ONLY SWIM AROUND HERE OR GO UP.

LOW GDP + HIGH INFLATION = AINT THAT STAGFLATION SCENARIO coming?

the future of singapore looks bleak from economic point of view-MAS has limited policy tools in hand as SIBOR IS SO LOW now.plus usa fomc says they may raise interest rates in 2015.

THOSE WHO BOUGHT IN STRONG ECONOMY AND LOW INTEREST RATES ARE JUST ASKING FOR TROUBLE TO BE DELIVERED TO THEIR DOORSTEP--THEY NEVER ASK THEMSELVES WHAT IF BOTH TURN AGAINST ME????

BETTER BEWARE AS THE ROAD AHEAD FOR SINGAPORE PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES AIN'T ROSY,YES LONGTERM SINGAPORE PROPERTIES SURE IS UP BUT WHY RUSH INTO IT AFTER SURGED NEAR 150% IN 20YEARS,WITH SIBOR PLUNGING FROM 8% TO NEAR 0%?

WHAT IF SIBOR WENT BACK UP TO 8%(IT HAPPENED BEFORE IN ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS)???
WHAT IF SGD GOES TO PARITY WITH US$?
THIS WILL DEAL A MASSIVE BLOW TO GDP AND EMPLOYMENT,WHICH IN TURN WILL DEAL A MASSIVE BLOW TO PRIVATE PROPERTIES AS THIS CLASS IS A SALARY RICH BUT ASSET POOR CLASS GAME.THIS CLASS IS A HEAVILY LEVERAGED CLASS,UNLIKE THE GOOD CLASS BUNGALOWS CLASS WHICH ARE OWNED BY THE REALLY ASSET RICH PEOPLE.