IN BOLD ARE MY COMMENTS
Greece elections could trigger the "Great Stock Sale" GSS in June 2012........what investment strategy should we adopt during these uncertain times .....
Monday, 21 May, 2012 11:35 AM Posted by Kevin Scully
Last Friday, I was invited by Lim & Tan to do an investment presentation on the Investment Strategies for the Singapore market in 2012. The slides can be downloaded from our website.
The key messages during my talk were:
a) the problems in the EU would take many years to resolve and we are likely to see problems surfacing from individual members of the EU every now and then - bottom line - more market volatility in the months ahead(WHO DOES NOT KNOW EUROPEAN CRISIS TAKE LONG TIME TO RESOLVE?WHICH CRISIS IS SO FAST RESOLVED?EQUIVALENT TO TALKING COCK.I ALSO KNOW EUROPEAN CRISIS,AMERICA CRISIS NOT SO FAST FINISH THAT IS WHY I SAID S&P500 ON COMPLETION OF 3RD HUMP WILL FALL TO 1200-1230.IS NOT THAT MORE IN DETAILED THAN JUST TALKING SUPERFICIAL,GENERAL COCK?)
b) if you cannot stomach the volatility, then shift about 50% of your portfolio into defensive yield plays. I also provided a list of yield stocks or investments that investors can look at for the yield holdings.(WHAT? SHIFT INTO HIGH YIELD HOLDINGS,A.KA DEFENSIVE PLAYS ONLY AFTER STOCKMARKET PLUNGE FOR 3 WEEKS ALREADY?MAN!YOU ARE TOO LATE IN THE GAME,SCULLY BOY!I WAS ALREADY BEARISH IN FEBRUARY 2012)
c) Greece elections on June 17, 2012 would be a referendum on whether Greece will accept the austerity measures - if not it is likely to leave the EU through a sovereign default (orderly or disorderly). When this happens I expect the VIX index to rise to the 40-45 level.(WHAT??MAN! YOU ARE DEFINITELY NOT A FAN OF THE VIX!HOW COULD YOU NOT SEE THE VIX DOWNTREND CYCLE?IN MAY 2012,IT WAS ONLY 7 MONTHS OLD FROM OCT2011 PEAKS.PLEASE GO AND MEASURE IN THE PAST 2 DOWNTREND CYCLES OF THE VIX,FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK TO THE NEXT PEAK,WHERE GOT BELOW A YEAR????WHAT JUNE 2012 GREECE ELECTIONS??OCT 2011-JUNE2012=ONLY 8MONTHS!HOW DARE YOU USE THE VIX WHEN YOU NEVER STUDY IT WELL)
d) when and if the VIX hits 45 - I think the STI Index will fall maybe on low volume to the 2500 level - that is when the Great Stock Sale starts - so you can start nibbling at some blue chips - I have a list of 6-7 in my slides and suggested entry levels. I suggested that investors look to put in 50% of what they had set aside at 2500 and then keep the second 50% to average down if prices fall further on low volume.(WHAT?STI TO FALL TO EVEN BELOW 2500???OH MAN!YES THAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEXT ASIAN CRISIS.PLEASE WAKE UP!THIS EUROPEAN CRISIS IS NOT AT ALL SERIOUS,LOOK AT WHERE THE DAX IS IN MAY2012 WAS AT 6300,ONLY FALLEN 1300POINTS FROM THE PEAK OF 7600,-17% FROM 2011PEAKS.PLEASE GO AND MEASURE HANGSENG INDEX,IN MAY 2012,HANGSENG WAS DOWN 30% FROM 2010 PEAKS,STI WAS DOWN 20+% FROM ITS 3300PEAKS,KOSPI WAS DOWN 20% FROM 2011 PEAKS!!LOOK AT SO CALLED EUROPEAN CRISIS,AFFECT ASIA OR EUROPE MORE??)
e) however if other members start to default such as Spain or even Italy or if the German Government changes in 2013 - then the VIX could rise even higher to the 75 level - that is where it went during the Lehman crisis......if that is the case than 2500 will not hold and we need to look at lower levels. (DEFINITELY NOT A AVID READER AND FAN OF THE VIX,SAME AS ABOVE IN PART C)
f) No QE3 till second quarter or later because of the US Presidential elections.(YOU REALLY THINK SO MARKETS REACT TO QE3?WHO ARE YOU TO DECIDE WHEN WILL BEN WILL IMPLEMENT QE3?THAT IS WHY I NEVER LOOK AT ECONOMIC DATA TO DECIDE QE3 OR NOT BECAUSE I AM NOT BEN BERNANKE.PLEASE DO NOT PLAY ECONOMICS GOD.I AM A GRADUATE FROM ECONOMICS FROM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE,YET I DO NOT POSE AS ECONOMICS GOD AS I AM NOT BEN BERNANKE!I HAVE NO POWER TO DECIDE WILL HAVE QE3 OR NOT?WHEN WILL HAVE QE3?SCULLY BOY!HAVENT U FORGOTTEN STOCKMARKETS PLUNGE ON QE1?wikipedia: In late November 2008, the Fed started buying $600 billion in Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).-QUOTE WITH EVIDENCE.SP500 IN MARCH 2009 WAS LOWER THAN OCTOBER 2008 LOWS,AT THAT TIME,EVERYBODY AROUND ME WAS SO PETRIFIED OF STOCKMARKET AS THEY BELIEVED NEWS SAY THAT THE EUPHORIA BEHIND QE1 FIZZLED OUT.IDIOTS THINK THAT EVEN WITH QE1,STOCKMARKETS PLUNGE=HOPELESS FOR STOCKMARKET!!CAN ADULTS PLEASE WAKE UP?STOCKMARKET IS NOT BASED ON QE1 ,QE2, QE1000,ETC.)
g) Stocks as an asset class based on current earnings forecasts are cheap with many stock markets trading near the low end of their trading range......
Bottom line, no need to panic when markets fall - view it as a buying opportunity - take the time now to identify which stocks and what levels you want to BUY and wait patiently.
NOW,less than 2 MONTHS LATER from your report on may21,2012, ON 16TH JULY 2012-STI IS AT 3,000.THIS IS CALLED LOW GET LOWER,HIGH GET HIGHER MORONS' APPROACH.IN MAY 2012,VERY BAD,HUGE PLUNGE, SO JUST RIDE ON THE WAVE,GO LOWER AND LOWER TO BELOW 2.5K IN STI!!THEN AFTER STI GO TO 3.2K,THEN YOU WILL SEE ALL THESE "FOLLOW THE WAVE-LATE IN THE GAME-TALKING GENERAL COCK TO PRESERVE THEIR CARS,CONDOMINIUMS" ANALYSTS SAY STI TO GO HIGHER TO 3.9K!!
Greece elections could trigger the "Great Stock Sale" GSS in June 2012........what investment strategy should we adopt during these uncertain times .....
Monday, 21 May, 2012 11:35 AM Posted by Kevin Scully
Last Friday, I was invited by Lim & Tan to do an investment presentation on the Investment Strategies for the Singapore market in 2012. The slides can be downloaded from our website.
The key messages during my talk were:
a) the problems in the EU would take many years to resolve and we are likely to see problems surfacing from individual members of the EU every now and then - bottom line - more market volatility in the months ahead(WHO DOES NOT KNOW EUROPEAN CRISIS TAKE LONG TIME TO RESOLVE?WHICH CRISIS IS SO FAST RESOLVED?EQUIVALENT TO TALKING COCK.I ALSO KNOW EUROPEAN CRISIS,AMERICA CRISIS NOT SO FAST FINISH THAT IS WHY I SAID S&P500 ON COMPLETION OF 3RD HUMP WILL FALL TO 1200-1230.IS NOT THAT MORE IN DETAILED THAN JUST TALKING SUPERFICIAL,GENERAL COCK?)
b) if you cannot stomach the volatility, then shift about 50% of your portfolio into defensive yield plays. I also provided a list of yield stocks or investments that investors can look at for the yield holdings.(WHAT? SHIFT INTO HIGH YIELD HOLDINGS,A.KA DEFENSIVE PLAYS ONLY AFTER STOCKMARKET PLUNGE FOR 3 WEEKS ALREADY?MAN!YOU ARE TOO LATE IN THE GAME,SCULLY BOY!I WAS ALREADY BEARISH IN FEBRUARY 2012)
c) Greece elections on June 17, 2012 would be a referendum on whether Greece will accept the austerity measures - if not it is likely to leave the EU through a sovereign default (orderly or disorderly). When this happens I expect the VIX index to rise to the 40-45 level.(WHAT??MAN! YOU ARE DEFINITELY NOT A FAN OF THE VIX!HOW COULD YOU NOT SEE THE VIX DOWNTREND CYCLE?IN MAY 2012,IT WAS ONLY 7 MONTHS OLD FROM OCT2011 PEAKS.PLEASE GO AND MEASURE IN THE PAST 2 DOWNTREND CYCLES OF THE VIX,FROM THE PREVIOUS PEAK TO THE NEXT PEAK,WHERE GOT BELOW A YEAR????WHAT JUNE 2012 GREECE ELECTIONS??OCT 2011-JUNE2012=ONLY 8MONTHS!HOW DARE YOU USE THE VIX WHEN YOU NEVER STUDY IT WELL)
d) when and if the VIX hits 45 - I think the STI Index will fall maybe on low volume to the 2500 level - that is when the Great Stock Sale starts - so you can start nibbling at some blue chips - I have a list of 6-7 in my slides and suggested entry levels. I suggested that investors look to put in 50% of what they had set aside at 2500 and then keep the second 50% to average down if prices fall further on low volume.(WHAT?STI TO FALL TO EVEN BELOW 2500???OH MAN!YES THAT WILL HAPPEN IN NEXT ASIAN CRISIS.PLEASE WAKE UP!THIS EUROPEAN CRISIS IS NOT AT ALL SERIOUS,LOOK AT WHERE THE DAX IS IN MAY2012 WAS AT 6300,ONLY FALLEN 1300POINTS FROM THE PEAK OF 7600,-17% FROM 2011PEAKS.PLEASE GO AND MEASURE HANGSENG INDEX,IN MAY 2012,HANGSENG WAS DOWN 30% FROM 2010 PEAKS,STI WAS DOWN 20+% FROM ITS 3300PEAKS,KOSPI WAS DOWN 20% FROM 2011 PEAKS!!LOOK AT SO CALLED EUROPEAN CRISIS,AFFECT ASIA OR EUROPE MORE??)
e) however if other members start to default such as Spain or even Italy or if the German Government changes in 2013 - then the VIX could rise even higher to the 75 level - that is where it went during the Lehman crisis......if that is the case than 2500 will not hold and we need to look at lower levels. (DEFINITELY NOT A AVID READER AND FAN OF THE VIX,SAME AS ABOVE IN PART C)
f) No QE3 till second quarter or later because of the US Presidential elections.(YOU REALLY THINK SO MARKETS REACT TO QE3?WHO ARE YOU TO DECIDE WHEN WILL BEN WILL IMPLEMENT QE3?THAT IS WHY I NEVER LOOK AT ECONOMIC DATA TO DECIDE QE3 OR NOT BECAUSE I AM NOT BEN BERNANKE.PLEASE DO NOT PLAY ECONOMICS GOD.I AM A GRADUATE FROM ECONOMICS FROM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE,YET I DO NOT POSE AS ECONOMICS GOD AS I AM NOT BEN BERNANKE!I HAVE NO POWER TO DECIDE WILL HAVE QE3 OR NOT?WHEN WILL HAVE QE3?SCULLY BOY!HAVENT U FORGOTTEN STOCKMARKETS PLUNGE ON QE1?wikipedia: In late November 2008, the Fed started buying $600 billion in Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).-QUOTE WITH EVIDENCE.SP500 IN MARCH 2009 WAS LOWER THAN OCTOBER 2008 LOWS,AT THAT TIME,EVERYBODY AROUND ME WAS SO PETRIFIED OF STOCKMARKET AS THEY BELIEVED NEWS SAY THAT THE EUPHORIA BEHIND QE1 FIZZLED OUT.IDIOTS THINK THAT EVEN WITH QE1,STOCKMARKETS PLUNGE=HOPELESS FOR STOCKMARKET!!CAN ADULTS PLEASE WAKE UP?STOCKMARKET IS NOT BASED ON QE1 ,QE2, QE1000,ETC.)
g) Stocks as an asset class based on current earnings forecasts are cheap with many stock markets trading near the low end of their trading range......
Bottom line, no need to panic when markets fall - view it as a buying opportunity - take the time now to identify which stocks and what levels you want to BUY and wait patiently.
NOW,less than 2 MONTHS LATER from your report on may21,2012, ON 16TH JULY 2012-STI IS AT 3,000.THIS IS CALLED LOW GET LOWER,HIGH GET HIGHER MORONS' APPROACH.IN MAY 2012,VERY BAD,HUGE PLUNGE, SO JUST RIDE ON THE WAVE,GO LOWER AND LOWER TO BELOW 2.5K IN STI!!THEN AFTER STI GO TO 3.2K,THEN YOU WILL SEE ALL THESE "FOLLOW THE WAVE-LATE IN THE GAME-TALKING GENERAL COCK TO PRESERVE THEIR CARS,CONDOMINIUMS" ANALYSTS SAY STI TO GO HIGHER TO 3.9K!!
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