back to boring markets..............................look at the FAILED BREAKOUT..y failed? bounded by the 20 month s.m.a...to have a sharper acceleration upwards by breaking the green resistance line, i expected it to break both the 20 month m.a. and that upwards green line in ONE DAY ONE UPMOVE...BUT ALAS, AS USUAL, the first time meet resistance sure drop..

VERY VERY DISGUSTED.

zacks parking theory is in use again!!!!!!!!!

DJ ASIA FUND POLL: Fund Managers Like China, India, Indonesia (2009/07/30 15:57PM)

By Ellen Sheng
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--China, India and Indonesia stock markets remained fund manager favorites during the month of July, as increased optimism about the economic outlook whetted appetite for emerging markets.
International fund managers surveyed by Dow Jones became "overweight" on Asian emerging markets stocks this month, compared with a consensus "neutral" position in June. Managers active in the region are fairly concentrated on China, India, Indonesia, as well as Hong Kong, with other Asian country holdings at "neutral" or "underweight." Weightings reflect managers'' portfolio composition compared with benchmark indexes.
Investors have been warming up to China''s prospects as a growth driver in the Asia Pacific region. Domestic growth in the populous country is being driven by loose monetary policy and bank lending. China''s hefty stimulus packages are also supporting growth.
Encouraged by hiked earnings expectations and other signs, some market houses such as Threadneedle recently raised their expectations for gross domestic product growth this year to 8% from 7%.
"Though the export sector will have to start improving at some stage, China''s market share with certain export sectors has already increased and the government continues to have the means to initiate more stimulus measures should the U.S. recovery be delayed further," said Simon Godfrey, investment specialist for Pan Asia ex-Japan equities at Fortis Investments in Hong Kong.
Sectors poised to benefit from domestic growth such as consumer goods are particularly popular. Despite the market rally so far this year - The Shanghai Composite Index is up 10.38% thus far in July and up nearly 80% for the year - fund managers say valuations are still reasonable as they are below peak levels in 2007.
Hong Kong, as the longtime gateway to China, also remained on fund managers'' screens, though with some caveats.
Hong Kong is "a defensive market overall compared to the rest of Asia," said Fortis'' Godfrey. Large-cap stocks tend to be major banks, property and utilities companies and with a cyclical recovery taking place in the region''s largest economies, there is greater potential elsewhere and in other sectors, particularly consumer stocks, he said.
Like China, fund manager interest in Indian and Indonesian stocks is also a play on optimism about domestic growth.
India''s 2009 GDP growth, expected to be around 6% and 7%, is the second highest in the region and goods and services exports make up a smaller portion of GDP than more developed economies such as Taiwan or Hong Kong. The country''s relatively insulated economy has made investors optimistic about consumer consumption while government-sponsored infrastructure investments is spurring interest in infrastructure.
The Bombay Sensex 30 Index rose about 4.7% in July and is up 57.3% year to date. Given the rally, some fund managers are being more selective. Threadneedle, for instance, says it is underweight India in the near term while Fortis said it has taken some profits in financials and property stocks, which have full valuations after a strong second quarter.
Indonesian stocks, which became a favorite last month, continue to be popular. Fund managers noted that the country''s economy is more domestic driven, rather than export-driven, making it attractive in the current environment.
"Indonesia''s fundamentals continue to improve steadily," noted Invesco, which has been encouraged by the landslide victory of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his mandates to accelerate economic reforms. Moreover, Indonesia remains one of the cheapest markets in the region, the fund manager said.
Equities are back in fund managers'' good graces this month after being trumped by cash and bonds for several months. Managers were "overweight" equities - and particularly emerging markets stocks in July. Managers were only "slightly overweight" bonds and "underweight" cash. Emerging market equity funds and Asia ex-Japan equity funds saw mostly inflows during July, but with some occasional outflows. Global emerging markets equity funds posted big inflows in the third week of July, absorbing a net $1.08 billion, while Asia ex-Japan equity funds raked in US$973 million, according to Boston-based fund tracker EPFR Global.
Each month, Dow Jones Newswires surveys fund managers on portfolio weighting recommendations for the succeeding months, with most looking at a 12-month horizon. This latest survey was taken over the past week. The respondents for this month''s survey were Aberdeen Asset Management, Credit Agricole Asset Management, Fortis Investments, Invesco Ltd., J.P. Morgan Asset Management, ING Asset Management, Mirae Asset Global Investments, Schroder Investment Management Ltd., Standard Life Investments and Threadneedle.
For the survey, each participant was asked to assign recommendations to each asset class. The weightings from each fund manager were then averaged: 0 is neutral, up to +0.5 is slightly overweight, above +0.5 to +1 is overweight, above +1 is very overweight. Meanwhile, 0 to -0.5 is slightly underweight, below -0.5 to -1 is underweight, below -1 is very underweight. OVERALL GLOBAL WEIGHTINGS
July09 June May April March Feb
Cash -0.50 -0.25 0 +0.25 +0.25 0
Bonds +0.25 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.25 +0.75
Equities +0.50 0 0 0 +0.25 +0.25
Commodities +0.25 +0.25 +0.25 -0.50 0 --

GLOBAL BONDS July09 June May April March Feb
Asia ex-Japan +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.25 -0.25
Japan -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 0 +0.50
North America -0.25 +0.25 0 -0.50 -0.25 0
Europe 0 +0.25 0 -0.25 +0.25 +0.25
Non-Asian +0.75 +0.50 +0.50 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25
emerging mkts

GLOBAL EQUITIES July09 June May April March Feb
Asia ex-Japan +0.50 0 +0.25 +0.50 +0.25 +0.25
Japan 0 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 0
North America -0.25 0 -0.25 0 +0.25 +0.25
Europe -0.25 +0.25 0 -0.25 0 0
Non-Asian +0.50 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25 0 -0.25
emerging mkts

ASIAN EQUITIES July09 June May April March Feb
Japan -0.25 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 -0.50
China +0.75 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +1.25
Hong Kong +0.50 0 +0.25 +0.50 +0.25 +0.25
Taiwan -0.25 -0.50 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50
South Korea 0 -0.25 0 -0.25 -0.75 -1.25
Singapore 0 0 -0.25 0 +0.25 +1.00
Indonesia +0.50 +0.50 +0.50 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25
Philippines 0 0 -0.25 0 0 +0.25
Thailand 0 0 0 0 +0.25 +0.25
Malaysia -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00
Australia -0.75 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.50 -1.00
New Zealand -0.50 -0.75 -0.75 -0.50 -0.50 -1.00
India +0.50 +0.75 +0.75 +0.25 +0.50 +1.00

-By Ellen Sheng, Dow Jones Newswires; 852-2832-2336; ellen.sheng@dowjones.com
TALK BACK: We invite readers to send us comments on this or other financial news topics. Please email us at TalkbackAsia@dowjones.com. Readers should include their full names, work or home addresses and telephone numbers for verification purposes. We reserve the right to edit and publish your comments along with your name; we reserve the right not to publish reader comments.
Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today''s most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=r05JYbuTcqPb0%2F8EHfXgbg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 30, 2009 03:57 ET (07:57 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

zacks theory says the more times it tests the resistance, the more likely it will be a successful breakout.WATCH OUT FOR A NASDAQ LED RALLY this week, 27july to july 31st

24th july 2009--why i bought LIANBENG 800 lots, ave px 29.3456c

Cary Huang in Beijing 11 July 2009

Premier Wen Jiabao has ordered efforts be made to support the property and stock markets and carmakers, saying they were crucial to sustaining the economic recovery, at least in the short term. Mr. Wen also said the central bank should keep the credit tap fairly wide open to support big government spending. He made the statements in an internal meeting last month with the economy and finance ministers and executives of big state-owned companies, according to informed sources. This week, the premier warned that the current economic recovery was not built on solid foundations. He held two meetings to consult economic experts and industrial officials on economic policy, Xinhua reported. In the meetings on Tuesday and Thursday, Mr. Wen said that maintaining stable and relatively rapid economic growth was the government’s top priority, the official news agency said. Xinhua said Mr. Wen held the meetings to canvass opinions and seek suggestions regarding economic development. A reliable source quoted Mr. Wen as saying in last month’s meeting that “the government should spare no effort in maintaining the stability of stock and property markets and boosting spending on big items such as homes and cars.” The source said: “The top leadership believes that spending on those big items will be crucial to maintaining economic stability and growth, at least in the short term, in view of the continued global downturn.” The source, who was at the meeting with Mr. Wen, said the authorities would ensure plentiful bank lending and use fiscal measures to support the recovery of key industries because demand for mainland exports was likely to remain weak for some time to come. Mr. Wen acknowledged that such high spending might not be sustainable over the long term. He said that with the economy on the path to recovery, future policies would focus more on addressing medium-term structural problems and on boosting household income and domestic consumption to ensure sustainable growth. The mainland’s two stock exchanges have been the world’s best performers this year. The Shanghai Composite Index rallied 69 per cent in the first six months as improving credit, investment and manufacturing data suggested the government’s 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.54 trillion) stimulus package - announced in November to counter the impact of the global financial crisis and economic downturn - was reviving the mainland economy. Property sales and prices in the mainland have started to recover, driven by pent-up demand and supportive government policies. Property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose 0.2 per cent in June from a year earlier, the first increase in six months, according to results of a survey by the National Development and Reform Commission and National Bureau of Statistics issued yesterday. The mainland surpassed the United States as the world’s biggest vehicle market in the first half of the year. June vehicle sales were up 36.5 per cent from a year earlier, at 1.14 million. That was the second highest on record; in April, 1.15 million were sold. Vehicle sales in the first half of the year reached 6.1 million, up 17.7 per cent from a year earlier, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Thursday. While there is growing consensus among analysts that the world’s third largest economy is on track to recover, some officials and academics have voiced concern an asset bubble is building up and that inflation may take off. On Tuesday, Zhang Jianhua , head of the People’s Bank of China’s research bureau, said some “fine-tuning” was necessary to prevent asset bubbles, bad-loan risks and a return to high inflation.

july 2nd failed breakout was due to poor market sentiment.as us mkts are approaching supports, mkt sentiment should improve making it a GODSEND chance

verdict:still weak.... close just below 919....918.32..DAMN..

now, must BEG the US side to have GREEN futures, UP in asia trading morning time to see the manipulator's soul... to go past 919, and hopefully 927... I AM VERY UNEASY EVEN IF WITH THIS RALLY BUT STILL INSIDE 927 CANDLE BODY..

OVER...

IF GOT GREEN US FUTURES, THEN BUY SOME, IF NOT, WAIT AND WATCH..

proof of sti up on 15th june--coincides with s shares style of manipulation coincides with shanghai touching last short term guppy mma plus coincides with news of celestial solving bond problems in zaobao---

TIAN SHI DI LI!!!! DONT MISS IT

1st scenario:shanghai composite broke out of downtrend resistance on march 16th 2009

china hongxing, the closest proxy to the shanghai market due to my observations started rising on the day before, march 13th, 2009--friday

shanghai comp in this period from march 16th to march 24th 2009 rose from 2128 to 2369--a rise of about 241 points, about 11pc. china hongxing from march 13th to march 24th rose from 5.5c to 11.5c!!!

if compared from march 16th 2009 to march 24th 2009, hongxing rose 8cents to 11.5c only!!

IT PAYS TO GET IN EARLY...

2nd scenario:

april 2nd to apr 6th 2009, china hongxing rose from 9.5c to 12.5c

shanghai:consolidate in a while , never rise

but from april 8th 2009, hongxing never plunge a lot despite shanghai comp crash from 2439 to 2347 in one day--shanghai composite touch and close on the last shorteterm guppy mma.that is why hongxing never sell off!!!KELONG OR NOT?? they already have a gameplan b4hand!!!

3rd scenario: april 9th to 16th shanghai rose from 2347 to 2549, gain of 9pc!!!

china hongxingrose from 9.5c to 16c from exactly apr9th to 16th 2009!!!

4th scenario: shanghai touch the 1st guppy long term mma for the 2nd time after it has expanded outwards boldly and rebound strongly on apr 29th to may 11th 2009

from 2401 to 2663, rise of 11 pc!!

china hongxing did the same again---12.5c to 22.5c in the same period!! from apr 29th to may11th 2009..

the rebound in S CHIPS COULD VERY WELL BE THIS COMING MONDAY 15TH JUNE 2009!!!TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SHANGHAI TOUCH THE LAST SHORT TERM GUPPY MMA ON FRIDAY, 12th june 2009 plus the following news below will "boost" s share to go up... (taken from channelnewsasia forum market talk postings and an article from zaobao on celestial...)
市场谣传，一家大型中国银行可能成为拯救中资企业天圜营养集团(Celestial NutriFoods)的“白武士”，出资收购后者一批总值2亿3480万元的债券(convertible bonds)。 　　这批债券的提早赎回日昨天到期，天圜营养集团应支付2亿7366万元。集团前天傍晚宣布，无法在昨天的最后期限提早赎回这一批债券，已委任美林远东公司及其他附属公司为独家经纪人，协助公司检讨策略性选择方案，进行重组或回购这一批债券，包括与债券持有人进行洽商。 　　一名市场人士告诉本报，这项传闻已经传了一个月多，至今未获得证实，因此成为防止该龙筹股被大量抛售的阻力。该股在无法提早赎回债券的消息公开后，并没有出现显著的抛压，昨天截至下午四时的跌幅为5.4％。 　　该名市场人士说：“假设传闻属实，这家中国银行在收购后有两个选择，如果直接行使赎回权，逼集团付钱，可能会直接导致破产，但可能性令后人存疑；第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。” 　　在2004年来新上市的天圜营养集团，在中国黑龙江省从事大豆食品与饮料产品制造，产品分为三大类：健康饮料(固体或液体)、工业大豆分离蛋白及副产品大豆油。 　　这批可转换债券在2011年6月12日才期满，随着金融危机的爆发，债券持有者选择提早在今年的6月12日行使他们的赎回权利，使公司须拨款以支付赎回所须费用。 　　近几个月，该批债券提早赎回的潜在可能成为市场人士关注的焦点，被不少分析师看成即将引爆的“定时炸弹”。该集团的独立审计师普华古柏(PwC)在3月底公开强调，天圜营养的业绩是以它能经营下去的基础上计算出来的，理由是公司正在与金融机构谈商安排贷款事宜。 　　这家中资企业要是无法为6月12日可能出现的一些可转换债券提早赎回行动取得融资，它恐会面对能否继续经营下去的风险。 　　集团2008财年年报指出，手头上拥有8亿1187万人民币(1亿7241万新元)的现金及近现金。根据该年报，天圜营养因包括面值2亿3500万元的可转换债券以及12亿2931万元人民币(2亿7318万新元)的相关衍生金融产品，集团负债额超过了6352万元人民币(1412万新元)的资产。 以北京为基地的天圜营养集团昨天收报0.18元，下滑2.7％。
Back to top

');
//-->


herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:15 pm Post subject:

If that is true, then it is good news. Probably stretch the loan over a period of 5-10 years? More manageable.
Back to top

');
//-->


WhisperainJoined: 02 Jan 2009Posts: 194
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:54 pm Post subject:

This is good news! Is that the "white knight" that all have been speculating abt ?
Back to top

');
//-->


tessyJoined: 28 Oct 2008Posts: 1236
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:56 pm Post subject:

第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。 hold tight tight
Back to top

');
//-->


ekar0421Joined: 09 Oct 2008Posts: 97
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject:

Though most of us think that’s just a rumor, but as Chinese said: “No wind, no wave”, I’m confidence that their bond issue will be solved.
Back to top

');
//-->


happi2008Joined: 26 Jul 2007Posts: 754
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:23 pm Post subject:

ya i agreed and believe what Penguin mention. He was mentioning about annoucement so .... what we now talking is news....... he should know something....
Back to top

');
//-->


herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 3:55 pm Post subject:

Refinances the CBs into bank loans and repay in stages in span of 5-10 years is the best everyone. Celestial got the potential to become a giant company base on its growth rate.

my comments:

WHEN NEWS AND TECHNICALS ALL POINTING TO THE SAME CONCLUSION, I EXPECT A FIRM RALLY IN S SHARES THIS MONDAY 15TH JUNE 2009...over.

Real-time Indexes
Major
Mainland
Hong Kong
Industries
China

Index
Current Index
Change
Change (%)



Hang Seng Index
18888.59----LOOK AT THE VALUE HSI CLOSE!!!!!!!--YAT FATT FATT FATT FATT???????
+717.59
+3.95%


HSI - Finance
27757.04
+981.98
+3.67%


HSI - Utilities
35956.51
+18.57
+0.05%


HSI - Properties
25802.17
+750.81
+3.00%


HSI - Commerce & Industry
10400.99
+505.22
+5.11%



Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
10937.85
+509.66
+4.89%



Hang Seng China H-Financials Index
14213.09
+661.13
+4.88%



Hang Seng Composite Index
2631.80
+103.64
+4.10%


Last update: 01-06-2009 16:01

Hang Seng China 50 Index
5762.98
+266.58
+4.85%


Hang Seng China AH Premium Index
120.19
-1.20
-0.99%


Last update: 01-06-2009 16:01

mercator tgt 45.5c tomorrow, by next week, if us never plunges, should reach 54.5c!!!!

AS CERTIFED BY THE US MARKETS, SHARES ARE STILL ON UPTREND

I DONT KNOW WHAT IS CLEARER THAN THIS??

if u need any explanations--please sign up for my lessons..thanks

I DONT KNOW WHAT TO SAY.... SUCH BEAUTIFUL and PERFECT CHARTS DONT COME EVERYDAY...CHERISH IT... NO FLAWS AT ALL!!!!!!!!!come and attend my lesson if u want to know what is a PERFECT CHART..this is why i showhand my limit and cut golden agri at the same price i bought JUST TO BUY THIS today...750 lots at 0.6063

point 1.: the lowest point touch the uppermost long term guppy MMA (red line) 8221 and rebound up!

point 2: the stochastics have positive divergence when DJIA WENT TO 8221

point 3: the short term guppy MMA (the uppermost white line went and "kiss" the last short term guppy MMA and rebound up when DJIA went to 8221)

point 4: the upper trendline is preserved(green straight diagonal line)

point 5: went below 20day MOVING AVERAGE as seen in the middle of the bollinger bands(commonly denoted) BUT rebounded and close on it!!!!!!!!!!!

point 6: the 5 week MA of dow is at 8270s, close above it!!!

UNLESS I AM BLIND AND IDIOTIC, SO MANY POINTS FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE UPTREND.as predicted in the evening, I DID TELL U GUYS THAT THE MANIPULATORS SHORTED ON TUES, WED AND SEEING SO MANY SUPPORTS CUSHIONING THE FALL, THEY HAVE TO COVER BACK TODAY....YAWN......standard technical analysis.....

so boring.why am i right again?

good set up BUT lousy company.... worth a shot at.. waiting to buy below 15.5C AND RIDE TO 23.5!!!!!!!!

now may come a possible drop of 6 cents to 12 cents before rebounding to 21 cents..

as my dear MR. CHAN, esteemed boss of many popular retail outlets in Singapore requests yanlord charts...

here it is... thanks MR. CHAN FOR YOUR SUPPORT..expect sideways consolidation for yanlord.if sti goes to 2400 by end may 2009, yanlord should reach 2.15 at most

YAWN.... u look at how KELONG the stock market is---100% TECHNICAL

"STRANGE things" means BIG DOWN BIG UP

that is why i mention to one of my bowler friends that i must stay at home to trade on 18th may 2009 as i sense "STRANGE THINGS" GONNA HAPPEN on today..---DAMN PREDICTABLE...yawn.........

BOUGHT HSI16200MBLECW 090629 AT average price 0.528 150 LOTS

high chance we gonna march on to 2400 by end of may 2009.

watch out for the kelong drama..

NOW SP500 IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A CYCLICAL BULL MARKET WITHIN THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET OF TEN YEARS......

this bull market will be strong enough to DESTROY the all important 1550 and will TRANSFORM the secular bear market into a secular BULL market of about TEN years.

why?

as US markets have gone up a lot since 90s, it is their turn to rest -hence the secular bear market for 10 years. year 2000- tech stocks overvalued. year 2007, bank stocks overvalued, HENCE the need for corrections.

JUST ASK YOURSELF... if citigroup from US1 can rise to US3, and this takes sp500 from 666 to now 900, and alltime high is at US 60, why cant it break past 1550(at that time citigroup was US60)???

MARK MY WORDS:this secular bear market will be devastated by suge beyond 1550 when it retests it in early 2010, and it will turn into a SECULAR BULL MARKET for 10 more years...

THIS IS WHAT OBAMA MEANS when he says" america will be stronger from the crisis"

AS TO NOW.. THE US MARKETS, HSI, STI all have something in common, they all close above or around the 50 week ma, preserving the uptrend. what is more fascinating is that US markets(as shown in 2nd figure on top) that US markets are able to preserve their uptrend lines connecting the lows...........

check for yourself... STI FELL THIS WEEK ON LOWER VOLUME THAN LAST WEEK AND ABLE TO CLOSE ABOVE 50 WEEK MA AT 2135.HENCE I FIRMLY BELIEVE THIS WEEK IS JUST PROFIT TAKING and not trend reversal.

as predicted in my sms to u all few days ago..
my 3 tgts for sti are 2100, 2126, 2135
tuesDAY hit 2135 and rebound all the way up
today hit 2126 lows....
why are my targets always so accurate???

sinotechfibre--super beautiful charts--see how 5day ma (lower yellow line)curve past 50day ma(middle blue line), instead of intersecting from above
PLUS still far away from the 200day ma -the upper orange line
PLUS healthy volume

the purple line in the 1st diagram the weekly charts is the 50week ma. as i told u all-- RELAX

im so bored i went to sleep

my next prediction- in morning asia trading time, US futures are always red-down by 1pc or more...
BECAUSE DOW JONES IND AVE STILL HASNT BROKEN OUT of the subprime major downtrend line..
this is psychological warfare---this is when the manipulators make use of this PORKY virus story to collect...
and when the DJIA breaks out of THAT trendline---its time to PUSH UP...

watch out for APRIL 29TH, and also the day the stress tests are completed. these two days are crucial..
only then can we see US futures green in the morning of asia .

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - The sense of "unremitting freefall" in the U.S. economy has disappeared and the picture is no longer completely negative but rather mixed, President Barack Obama's economic adviser Lawrence Summers said on Sunday. Speaking on "Fox News Sunday," Summers also said he was hopeful that the Chrysler-Fiat auto negotiations would work out. "Six or eight weeks ago, there were no positive statistics to be found anywhere. The economy felt like it was falling vertically. Today, the picture is much more mixed," Summers said. "There are some negative indicators, to be sure. There are also some positive indicators. And no one knows what the next turn will be. But I think that sense of unremitting freefall that we had a month or two ago is not present today. And that's something we can take some encouragement from," he added. Summers also said U.S. economic imbalances cannot continue forever and the United States was on a path toward containing the economic downturn and toward recovery. (Editing by Patricia Zengerle) Keywords: USA ECONOMY/SUMMERS FREEFALL (will.dunham@reuters.com, 202 898 8300) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

SUDDENLY ALL GOOD NEWS COME OUT!!!!!!!!!I LOVE LAWRENCE SUMMERS.........

纺织业振兴规划发布继续提高出口退税率
发表时间:2009-04-25 08:48 来源:每日经济新闻发表评论
第1页/共1页 >

每经记者 刘丹 江旋
·稳定国内外市场,鼓励纺企“走出去”
·提高自主创新能力,培育自主品牌
·加快实施技术改造,淘汰落后产能
昨日,国务院发布《纺织工业调整和振兴规划》(以下简称 《规划》),提出要稳定纺织品国际市场份额,现有支持中小企业发展的专项资金向纺织企业适当倾斜。
中国服装纺织工业协会相关人士指出,《细则》的最大亮点是对传统行业作出了新定位,对纺织行业的发展指出了未来方向,但仍需进一步细化。也有业内人士指出,《规划》主要起树立行业信心的作用,当前仍不能真正改变行业低迷的局面。
另据记者了解,目前国家相关部门牵头正拟定纺织、纺机企业技改资金支持名单,全国约将有百余家企业进入名单,技改资金在10亿元左右。
规划解读
实施灵活的出口税收政策
业内习惯用“小步微调”来形容纺织服装出口退税率的上调。《规划》提出,将把稳定市场份额和继续提高出口退税率放在首位,实施灵活的出口税收政策。
对此,山东如意董事长邱亚夫表示,“从具体的数字上看,每提高1%出口退税率,将给我们企业增加700万元的利润,对提升我们的国际竞争力有巨大的推动作用。”
但一位接近商务部的人士告诉记者,从各方消息来看,纺织服装的出口退税政策,在短期内会稳定下来,保持目前的水平。
《规划》注重产业结构调整,鼓励自主品牌建设,培育具有国际影响力的自主知名品牌,提出要提高纺织服装自有品牌出口比重10个百分点,提升我国纺织业在全球产业分工中的地位。
对此,波司登股份有限公司董事长高德康表示,自主品牌企业在走出去之后,政府给予的是实质性支持,有实力的企业要尽快发挥自身的品牌优势。
国际金融危机为我国纺企的兼并重组提供了契机,《规划》也提出,鼓励纺织服装行业优势骨干企业对困难企业进行兼并重组。
《规划》还提出,要加大对中小纺织企业的扶持力度,现有支持中小企业发展的专项资金(基金)等向纺织企业适当倾斜,支持纺织企业巩固和开拓国内外市场。
业内建议
三方面政策仍需要细化
针对昨日公布的《规划》,中国纺织工业协会相关负责人认为,《规划》最大的亮点是对传统行业的新定位,但在以下三个方面还需细化。
首先,对纺织企业的金融支持政策应细化。大多数纺织企业仍然面临融资难的问题,目前部分地区已经在采取新的举措来解决这一问题,比如采用政府和企业分别注入资金担保等。
记者从全国纺织、服装主要输出基地之一的浙江宁波市金融办了解到,宁波一季度新增贷款中的四成用于支持中小企业。一季度宁波中小企业融资景气指数为104.7,比上季和去年同期分别上升了7.7和2.6个百分点。不过,宁波银行零售公司部表示,新增贷款与预期还有较大差距。
其次,国家普惠政策应加大力度,“纺织行业一直存在高征低扣现象:出口交税执行17%的税率,而进口纳税按照1%%执行,也就是棉花买进来没有实现增值就要增加4%的税再卖出去,而这4%的税率对企业是很大的负担。”
第三,应提高纺织、服装产品的商业流通渠道的使用效率,鼓励更多民族品牌进商场,并改变原有百货的传统运营模式。
企业机遇
中央拟10亿资金扶持纺企
《规划》提出,政策措施及保障条件中,包括“加大技术进步和技术改造投资力度”。记者在昨日也获悉,目前国家相关部门牵头正拟定纺织、纺机企业技改资金支持名单,全国大概百余家企业将进入名单,技改资金在10亿元左右,山东济宁如意毛纺织股份有限公司和经纬纺织机械股份有限公司或榜上有名。
中信证券纺织行业分析师李鑫认为,A股纺织服装公司大约70多家,但整体的市值只占整个A股市场的1%,说明纺织业的行业集中度较低,竞争力也不是很强。“从资本市场的角度来看,纺织行业的确需要调整和振兴。”
但中国第一纺织网总编辑汪前进表示,当前《规划》只能树立行业信心,不能真正改变行业的低迷局面。《规划》并非单纯针对纺织业当前困境的“救急”之举,而是着力解决纺织业中长期发展问题的“救穷”之策。对于很多企业所重点关心的问题,还缺乏实质性的、行之有效的措施。

SINOTECHFIBRE CHEOOOOOOOOONNNNNGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!HUAT AH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

what does this show?SP500 BROKE OUT ALREADY OF THE TREND LINE BUT DOW JONES UNABLE TO BREAK OUT....AS sp500 index has a lot of bank shares in it, this means that banks show stability and it is a matter of time that DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, breaks out of that trendline, follow banks stability.

The only worrying thing is that when dow jones surges to 8100s yesterday, vix only drop by 3per cent..there was no plunge in vix...THAT IS THE ONLY CONCERN ,otherwise trend looks up still

A TALE OF TWO CHARTS....tsk tsk...with stress tests results out very soon, djia will DESTROY THE UPPER DOWNWARD TRENDING TRENDLINE.

CLEAR TREND SHOWN...
1. down 121points
2. up 210 points
3. down 114 points
4. up 193 points
5. now down 136 points assuming 1813 is lowest of this most recent leg down,
6. next UP 200+points to meet 200day MA at 2050-2060s??
7. after meeting 200day MA, fall another 100+ points to meet 1947-1959 BEFORE RESUMING UPTREND...
see if im correct or not...IM DAMN CONFIDENT I WILL BE CORRECT
this prophecy is said on 22nd april 2009....
MOST LIKELY IM GONNA WHACK BIG TOMORROW, BUT NO CONTRA, 23rd april 2009 if dow closes UP by 1 pc or more on 22nd april 2009 PLUS US FUTURES ON 23RD APRIL 2009 UP BY 1 PC OR MORE

hsi once break and closes above 15800, MIDTERM target 20K
STI once break and closes above 1959-MIDTERM target 2400
BUT EXPECT SLIGHT RETRACEMENTS AT 2200 STI AND 18000 HSI...

HI ALL....HOPE YOU LOVE MY RECOMMENDATIONS AND MADE BIG MONEY..THE FINAL BOTTOM WILL ALWAYS BE LIKE THIS...BASED ON MY CAREFUL AND THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF ALL PAST CRISES, EG. 97, 2001,2003 THEY HAVE A COMMON POINT....

I send you all smses that i WAS EXPECTING since last year 2008 end that the US president will come out and say that the economy is not as bad as expected and recovery will be sooner than expected....I WAITED AND WAITED.....not only ONE PRESIDENT BUT TWO PRESIDENTS , US AND CHINA came and support my VIEW.

THIS SUBPRIME IS REALLY TACTICALLY ORCHESTRATED.....!!!!!

CHEERS...

I WAS WAITING FOR THIS STATEMENT SO LONG, SINCE LAST YEAR... (from larry summers too below article)


US Economy Could Recover Much Sooner Than Expected

You've heard all the gloom and doom about this recession. Now here's some good news: the economic recovery could happen much sooner—and be much stronger—than anyone thought possible.
Suddenly, a small but growing group of private-sector economists is disputing the idea that the recession will drag on for months and that the rebound will be as weak as those following the the 1991 and 2001 downturns.
“Too many people’s idea of recession have been formed by the last two recessions,” says Robert Brusca of Fact & Opinion Economics, referring to the 1991 and 2001 periods, which were both short and shallow. "I think that's mistaken.”
“People have been talking about an L-shaped recession,” adds Michael Mussa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The record shows you come back sharply from deep recessions” like the current one.
These economists and others see a V-shaped pattern, similar to that of the recession-recovery periods of the 1970s and 1980s. And they say there is ample evidence to support it.
Among the reasons for the new optimism: a significant easing of the credit crunch, improvement in consumer spending—including better auto sales—a potential bottom in housing, a less-grim jobs picture and expectations that the government's massive stimulus spending could start boosting economic growth almost immediately.
That doesn’t mean anyone is saying the recession is over yet. But the end is closer than people think.
Though the decline in first-quarter growth will be along the lines of the six-plus percent plunge of the fourth quarter of 2008, some economists now expect a flat or slightly negative showing in the second quarter, followed by the beginning of sustained growth in the third quarter. (That’s three months sooner than what many were forecasting several months ago.)
Optimists acknowledge that existing headwinds and unforeseen events can quickly derail momentum, which may help explain why a majority of opinions--including that of the the Federal Reserve--still fall into the wait-and-see camp.
“The velocity of downturn is lessening," says John J Castellani, chief economist and president of the Business Roundtable, who is more cautious than hopeful at this point. “In the initial part of the recovery, people will be very cautious about this being a double dip.”
Nevertheless, those forecasting a strong recovery point first and foremost to the waning effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse last fall, which roughly coincides with the worst of the credit crunch, and triggered a massive chain reaction in payroll and production cuts.
“The initial adjustment tends to be too big, then there’s some reversal of that,” says Ram Bhagavatula, managing director at the hedge fund, Combinatorics Capital.
That dynamic will lead to swifter and stronger recovery in both the economy and employment that many economists are forecasting.
Mussa, a former White House and International Monetary Fund economist, says that GDP will be a cumulative 6-8 percent higher six quarter than the bottom, depending on whether the recovery starts in the early or late summer.
Brusca is expecting a minimum of 4.5 percent GDP growth over the first four quarters of the recovery
All About The Economy
Both performances compare favorably with the post-WWII average, and while they may be less than the recoveries of the 70s and 80s they are significantly more than those of the past two recessions
In the 70s cycle, GDP shrank two consecutive years then posted GDP growth averaging 5 percent in 1976-1977; in the case of the 80s, the economy contracted 1.9 percent—more than economists expect for full year 2009—then grew 4.5 percent in the first year of recovery.
By contrast, the 2001 recession was so brief and shallow, GDP didn’t register a contraction for the whole year. Growth in the 2002-2003 period, however, averaged just 2 percent. Similarly, in 1991, the economy shrank 0.2 percent, followed by 3-percent growth in 1992 and 1993.
Economists also cite several reasons for better labor market conditions this time. They expect job losses as well as the unemployment rate to peak close to the time growth bottoms out, as was the case in the 80s and 90s, and thus not resemble the jobless recoveries of the two most recent recessions.
“Once recovery starts, it won’t be long before the unemployment rate begins to decline,” says Mussa, who doesn’t see the jobless rate breaking 10 percent.
Though the recession of 2001 ended in November of that year, 12 months later the economy had added just 200,000 jobs. Moreover, the jobless rate kept rising through June of 2003.
By contrast, payroll losses bottomed out one month after the recession of 1982 ended in November. Payrolls were 3 million higher a year later.
No one is expecting such robust job growth this time, but economists say the relatively strong showing in productivity during this recession points to lean payrolls, which will have to be fattened up--in some cases, quickly--as the economy improves.
"When you have high peaks in jobless claims, you have sharp declines in claims," says Brusca.
More broadly, economists also point to a number of economic factors that bode well, despite lingering concerns about he credit crunch.
“Cyclical forces trump secular forces,” says Brusca, referring to the massive de-leveraging by both consumers and business. “This is especially true when authorities have stepped in to stabilize it,” after a shocking event like Lehman.
“We have massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in the pipeline,” says Macroeconomic Advisers President Chris Vavares.
Macroeconomic Advisers, whose economist forecast for 2010 is more optimistic than that of the White House, estimates the government fiscal stimulus package will add 2 percent to GDP in the second quarter, one reason why the firm expects the economy to shrink by only 0.5 percent during the period. The consensus is for a 2.0-percent decline.
Then there are a handful of cyclical elements on the verge of being positives.
AP
Consumer spending is growing again, while inventories are being wound down. Housing and autos, in particular, says economists, hint at both pent-up demand and a production rebound.
“Housing will be an important element of the upturn right from the start,” says Mussa, who notes housing starts have been “beaten down” so much that supply will have to be added simply to accommodate demographic demand from new households.
The auto sector, which posted a surprise increase in sales in March, also has the potential to be a driving force.
“We all focus on what lousy shape they are in and not on that they have been cutting production,” says Varvares. “When you look at how quickly motor vehicles sales fell off the table last year--that big decline had a lot to due with the lack of financing.”
Varvares says automakers are starting to feel better about the credit environment and will offer better financing deals.
Macroeconomic Advisers' analysis makes a strong case for the role of housing and autos.
The two sectors erased a combined 2.5-3.0 percent from first quarter GDP, says Varvares. Autos, however will add 0.7 percent to GDP in the second quarter. Housing is expected to add 0.5 to 1.0 percent to GDP in 2010.
So, if the optimists are right, it's a case of gloom and boom.
"People were very gloomy in late '74 and '75," says Mussa. "They were gloomy in 1982."

US Economic 'Free-Fall' to End in Months: Summers
Topics:Employment Economy (Global) Economy (U.S.)
By: Reuters 09 Apr 2009 02:19 PM ET
The U.S. economy will end its "free-fall" within a few months as government stimulus and rescue efforts take hold and inventory cycles return to normal, White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said Thursday.
AP
Lawrence Summers
But Summers, speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, said it was still unclear how quickly and strongly the economy would turn around.
"I think the sense of a ball falling off the table -- which is what the economy has felt like since the middle of last fall -- I think we can be reasonably confident that that's going to end within the next few months and you will no longer have that sense of free-fall," Summers said.
However, he said the U.S. unemployment rate may still rise because unemployment typically lags an economic rebound and needs a growth rate of 2.5 percent to remain stable.
"Even if we got a return to positive growth, an economy that was growing at 1 percent would be an economy with rising unemployment.
I don't think we can hold out the prospect we'll stabilize at the current level," he said.
Partway into his talk, two protesters rushed onto the stage and unfurled a pink banner behind Summers emblazoned with the words "We want our $$$$ back!" Summers sat silent until security ushered them out of the hotel ballroom.
Summers said policy-makers needed to be wary of risks for both inflation and deflation, adding that near term-deflation risks were part of the reason for the Obama administration's strong fiscal stimulus efforts and programs to support credit markets.
Meanwhile, Thomas Hoenig, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, said Thursday that the U.S. economy is "under significant stress" and will not recover until the financial system is stabilized and credit flows improve.
Hoenig called for a plan to deal with failure at the largest financial firms—those often branded as "too big to fail" because of their systemic nature — that is framed around what is best for the overall economy, not just for one group.
"The restoration of normal financial activity depends on how we deal with the problems of our largest financial institutions," Hoenig told a Tulsa Metro Chamber of Commerce meeting in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
For even those massive firms, "failure does have to be an option in an economic system such as ours," he said, adding that as part of the resolution process, management at failed firms should be replaced.
"We simply cannot add more capital without a change in the firm's ownership and management and expect different outcomes in the future," he said.
Hoenig said a financial institution has "failed" when the value of its assets is less than the value of its liabilities, or if it suffers a massive loss in liquidity to the point where liquidity is insufficient to meet current payment obligations.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 07:49:26 12 Apr 2009LinksList Documentid: 30138321
Recovery Could Be Sooner than Expected
Fed Staff Lowers Outlook for 2009-10
Bear Market Still Alive: Roubini
"It does not matter what size the firm is. Although a bank might still be open and operating, if it is insolvent by these definitions, it has failed."
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

The reverse indicator works Again!!!

"Full recovery at least 2 to 3 years away Or it could take up to six years; export model is still the best, says MM. -->
Sat, Mar 21, 2009AsiaOne

By Clarissa Oon
SINGAPORE will take two to three years to bounce back from the recession - and this is the optimistic scenario that assumes the United States recovers next year.
The pessimistic forecast? Five to six years, according to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, who spoke last night at the launch of an alumni complex at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
MM Lee, who has been saying that Singapore's recovery hinges on that of the US, believes that the American economy is 'fundamentally sound'. Its big companies such as General Motors and Chrysler are 'sound' despite their requests for further government aid.
These are edited extracts from Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's dialogue with the National University of Singapore Society:
On Singapore's baby's dearth and import of foreigners:
THIRTY-THREE per cent of Singapore men don't marry. I don't know why. They are happy with singlehood. They are happy with relationships. Relationships carry no burden. Is that good for society? I don't think so...
Without new citizens and permanent residents, we are going to be the last of the Mohicans. We will disappear. Fortunately our standard of living and quality of life can attract people, but it creates problems for us.
We get feedback: 'I go to the kopitiam and the fellow there doesn't speak English.' But if he wasn't doing the cleaning, and the owner hadn't brought in the cooks, that kopitiam would've gone out of business."

WHAT WAS THE VALUE OF STI AT MARCH 20TH? as march 21st was a saturday...

20-Mar-09
STI close at 1,596.92

NOW at april 11th??
1828

Golden Period Man:the reverse indicator works..
LOOK AT THE DATE... JUST BEFORE THE SUBPRIME... SO ACCURATE..


Singapore in a golden period, says MM Lee

FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it. -->
Aaron Low
Sun, Jul 08, 2007The Straits Times


FRAMED against a Saturday night Orchard Road crowd, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew last night sketched a rosy picture of a more vibrant Singapore in five years' time - if it took full advantage of the opportunities now before it.
Investors from developed countries are pouring money into the region and Singapore is enjoying good economic growth and social development.
Economic giant China is pulling in foreign investments of US$70 billion (S$106 billion) and India, US$10 billion a year. Foreign direct investments here have maintained at about S$6 billion to S$7 billion.


The stock markets of some Asean countries have risen by an average of 48 per cent. Asian current accounts are running surpluses with reserves doubling since 2003 to US$2,500 billion.
'If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years,' he said.
The key is having a good government which will get its policies right, to encourage economic growth.
Singapore's economic growth this year will be around 5 per cent to 6 per cent - 'not bad' for a maturing economy with a per capita income of over US$25,000, he said at a Tanjong Pagar GRC event in Ngee Ann City's civic plaza.
'Once you have growth, all problems can be managed. When you have no growth and you have unemployment and no jobs, then all problems become intractable,' he said.
Mr Lee told the sizeable crowd, many of them younger Singaporeans, that they were luckier than him when he was a young man.
'You got the best schools, technical colleges. Nobody is deprived of an education in Singapore and you can go abroad if you do well with bursaries and scholarships.''
He had this message for those in their teens and early 20s: 'You're a generation that is especially blessed. You have ahead of you 10, 15, 20 years.'
Singapore was able to push ahead when China and India adopted wrong economic policies. Although they have recovered and are growing strongly, Singapore is still ahead 'and our job is to stay ahead, and I believe we can'.
Mr Lee said Singapore is in this enviable position today because it had taken 'painful and unpopular measures' after the 1997 Asian financial crisis to get the economy into shape.
The data tells the story: some 9.7 million visitors came here last year; unemployment is at a low 2.9 per cent and 49,000 jobs were created between January and March.
More important, he said, the Government has revised its vision of Singapore - to turn it into a city with a lively night life, a more liberal arts and entertainment scene, the building of the two integrated resorts and the introduction of Formula 1 racing here next year.
'I believe you're going to see a transformation in Singapore. It'll be the most vibrant lively city in this part of the world. And I believe in the next five years, we'll see it evolve.'
aaronl@sph.com.sg

although resistance at 900, but daily macd histogram still has much room to go up

with obama saying" new additional measures in the next few weeks" and "economy to recover sooner than expected"by larry Summers, former economic adviser to white house and IMF, it should signal AN ANNHILATION OF 900..

there is still a lot of room for upside in the weekly charts--suggesting 15800 to be conquered in the near term , most probably in april 2009....why am i so bullish?

it is because in this uptrend, there are days to allow for retracements of 3-5% before the next surge-so this will cause a lot of money to be "REGENERATED" to push the market even higher..

when there are no retracements of 3-5% and the market keeps on going up--the manipulators money is all tied up and they cant "regenerate" the original money to push the market up, that is why buying momentum is slowing if the markets go up continuously without profit taking.