1st scenario:shanghai composite broke out of downtrend resistance on march 16th 2009
china hongxing, the closest proxy to the shanghai market due to my observations started rising on the day before, march 13th, 2009--friday
shanghai comp in this period from march 16th to march 24th 2009 rose from 2128 to 2369--a rise of about 241 points, about 11pc. china hongxing from march 13th to march 24th rose from 5.5c to 11.5c!!!
if compared from march 16th 2009 to march 24th 2009, hongxing rose 8cents to 11.5c only!!
IT PAYS TO GET IN EARLY...
2nd scenario:
april 2nd to apr 6th 2009, china hongxing rose from 9.5c to 12.5c
shanghai:consolidate in a while , never rise
but from april 8th 2009, hongxing never plunge a lot despite shanghai comp crash from 2439 to 2347 in one day--shanghai composite touch and close on the last shorteterm guppy mma.that is why hongxing never sell off!!!KELONG OR NOT?? they already have a gameplan b4hand!!!
3rd scenario: april 9th to 16th shanghai rose from 2347 to 2549, gain of 9pc!!!
china hongxingrose from 9.5c to 16c from exactly apr9th to 16th 2009!!!
4th scenario: shanghai touch the 1st guppy long term mma for the 2nd time after it has expanded outwards boldly and rebound strongly on apr 29th to may 11th 2009
from 2401 to 2663, rise of 11 pc!!
china hongxing did the same again---12.5c to 22.5c in the same period!! from apr 29th to may11th 2009..
the rebound in S CHIPS COULD VERY WELL BE THIS COMING MONDAY 15TH JUNE 2009!!!TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SHANGHAI TOUCH THE LAST SHORT TERM GUPPY MMA ON FRIDAY, 12th june 2009 plus the following news below will "boost" s share to go up... (taken from channelnewsasia forum market talk postings and an article from zaobao on celestial...)
市场谣传，一家大型中国银行可能成为拯救中资企业天圜营养集团(Celestial NutriFoods)的“白武士”，出资收购后者一批总值2亿3480万元的债券(convertible bonds)。 这批债券的提早赎回日昨天到期，天圜营养集团应支付2亿7366万元。集团前天傍晚宣布，无法在昨天的最后期限提早赎回这一批债券，已委任美林远东公司及其他附属公司为独家经纪人，协助公司检讨策略性选择方案，进行重组或回购这一批债券，包括与债券持有人进行洽商。 一名市场人士告诉本报，这项传闻已经传了一个月多，至今未获得证实，因此成为防止该龙筹股被大量抛售的阻力。该股在无法提早赎回债券的消息公开后，并没有出现显著的抛压，昨天截至下午四时的跌幅为5.4％。 该名市场人士说：“假设传闻属实，这家中国银行在收购后有两个选择，如果直接行使赎回权，逼集团付钱，可能会直接导致破产，但可能性令后人存疑；第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。” 在2004年来新上市的天圜营养集团，在中国黑龙江省从事大豆食品与饮料产品制造，产品分为三大类：健康饮料(固体或液体)、工业大豆分离蛋白及副产品大豆油。 这批可转换债券在2011年6月12日才期满，随着金融危机的爆发，债券持有者选择提早在今年的6月12日行使他们的赎回权利，使公司须拨款以支付赎回所须费用。 近几个月，该批债券提早赎回的潜在可能成为市场人士关注的焦点，被不少分析师看成即将引爆的“定时炸弹”。该集团的独立审计师普华古柏(PwC)在3月底公开强调，天圜营养的业绩是以它能经营下去的基础上计算出来的，理由是公司正在与金融机构谈商安排贷款事宜。 这家中资企业要是无法为6月12日可能出现的一些可转换债券提早赎回行动取得融资，它恐会面对能否继续经营下去的风险。 集团2008财年年报指出，手头上拥有8亿1187万人民币(1亿7241万新元)的现金及近现金。根据该年报，天圜营养因包括面值2亿3500万元的可转换债券以及12亿2931万元人民币(2亿7318万新元)的相关衍生金融产品，集团负债额超过了6352万元人民币(1412万新元)的资产。 以北京为基地的天圜营养集团昨天收报0.18元，下滑2.7％。
Back to top
');
//-->
herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:15 pm Post subject:
If that is true, then it is good news. Probably stretch the loan over a period of 5-10 years? More manageable.
Back to top
');
//-->
WhisperainJoined: 02 Jan 2009Posts: 194
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:54 pm Post subject:
This is good news! Is that the "white knight" that all have been speculating abt ?
Back to top
');
//-->
tessyJoined: 28 Oct 2008Posts: 1236
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:56 pm Post subject:
第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。 hold tight tight
Back to top
');
//-->
ekar0421Joined: 09 Oct 2008Posts: 97
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject:
Though most of us think that’s just a rumor, but as Chinese said: “No wind, no wave”, I’m confidence that their bond issue will be solved.
Back to top
');
//-->
happi2008Joined: 26 Jul 2007Posts: 754
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:23 pm Post subject:
ya i agreed and believe what Penguin mention. He was mentioning about annoucement so .... what we now talking is news....... he should know something....
Back to top
');
//-->
herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 3:55 pm Post subject:
Refinances the CBs into bank loans and repay in stages in span of 5-10 years is the best everyone. Celestial got the potential to become a giant company base on its growth rate.
市场谣传，一家大型中国银行可能成为拯救中资企业天圜营养集团(Celestial NutriFoods)的“白武士”，出资收购后者一批总值2亿3480万元的债券(convertible bonds)。 这批债券的提早赎回日昨天到期，天圜营养集团应支付2亿7366万元。集团前天傍晚宣布，无法在昨天的最后期限提早赎回这一批债券，已委任美林远东公司及其他附属公司为独家经纪人，协助公司检讨策略性选择方案，进行重组或回购这一批债券，包括与债券持有人进行洽商。 一名市场人士告诉本报，这项传闻已经传了一个月多，至今未获得证实，因此成为防止该龙筹股被大量抛售的阻力。该股在无法提早赎回债券的消息公开后，并没有出现显著的抛压，昨天截至下午四时的跌幅为5.4％。 该名市场人士说：“假设传闻属实，这家中国银行在收购后有两个选择，如果直接行使赎回权，逼集团付钱，可能会直接导致破产，但可能性令后人存疑；第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。” 在2004年来新上市的天圜营养集团，在中国黑龙江省从事大豆食品与饮料产品制造，产品分为三大类：健康饮料(固体或液体)、工业大豆分离蛋白及副产品大豆油。 这批可转换债券在2011年6月12日才期满，随着金融危机的爆发，债券持有者选择提早在今年的6月12日行使他们的赎回权利，使公司须拨款以支付赎回所须费用。 近几个月，该批债券提早赎回的潜在可能成为市场人士关注的焦点，被不少分析师看成即将引爆的“定时炸弹”。该集团的独立审计师普华古柏(PwC)在3月底公开强调，天圜营养的业绩是以它能经营下去的基础上计算出来的，理由是公司正在与金融机构谈商安排贷款事宜。 这家中资企业要是无法为6月12日可能出现的一些可转换债券提早赎回行动取得融资，它恐会面对能否继续经营下去的风险。 集团2008财年年报指出，手头上拥有8亿1187万人民币(1亿7241万新元)的现金及近现金。根据该年报，天圜营养因包括面值2亿3500万元的可转换债券以及12亿2931万元人民币(2亿7318万新元)的相关衍生金融产品，集团负债额超过了6352万元人民币(1412万新元)的资产。 以北京为基地的天圜营养集团昨天收报0.18元，下滑2.7％。
Back to top
');
//-->
herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:15 pm Post subject:
If that is true, then it is good news. Probably stretch the loan over a period of 5-10 years? More manageable.
Back to top
');
//-->
WhisperainJoined: 02 Jan 2009Posts: 194
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:54 pm Post subject:
This is good news! Is that the "white knight" that all have been speculating abt ?
Back to top
');
//-->
tessyJoined: 28 Oct 2008Posts: 1236
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:56 pm Post subject:
第二个比较高的可能是进行重组，寻找一个双赢的解决之道。 hold tight tight
Back to top
');
//-->
ekar0421Joined: 09 Oct 2008Posts: 97
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:21 pm Post subject:
Though most of us think that’s just a rumor, but as Chinese said: “No wind, no wave”, I’m confidence that their bond issue will be solved.
Back to top
');
//-->
happi2008Joined: 26 Jul 2007Posts: 754
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:23 pm Post subject:
ya i agreed and believe what Penguin mention. He was mentioning about annoucement so .... what we now talking is news....... he should know something....
Back to top
');
//-->
herbalJoined: 25 Nov 2005Posts: 1866
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2009 3:55 pm Post subject:
Refinances the CBs into bank loans and repay in stages in span of 5-10 years is the best everyone. Celestial got the potential to become a giant company base on its growth rate.
my comments:
WHEN NEWS AND TECHNICALS ALL POINTING TO THE SAME CONCLUSION, I EXPECT A FIRM RALLY IN S SHARES THIS MONDAY 15TH JUNE 2009...over.
No comments:
Post a Comment