u draw a diagonal uptrend line from october 2008 lowest point and connect to all the lowest points ,AND YOU WILL SEE GOLD ACTUALLY DID BREAK DOWN IN APRIL 2012,AND ACTUALLY DID GIVE GOLD BULLS A SECOND CHANCE TO GET OUT BEFORE THE BIG PLUNGE IN APRIL 2013 BY RETESTING THE UPTRENDLINE IT ACTUALLY BROKE DOWN FROM,IN SEPT2012!!!
IF ANALYSTS ARE SO EARLY IN PREDICTING,THEY WOULD HAVE STARTED DOWNGRADING EITHER IN APRIL 2012 OR LATEST BY SEPT2012!!YET WE SEE ANALYSTS ONLY STARTED DOWNGRADING IN FEB2013!!!
ANALYSTS ARE LATE IN BEING BEARISH,LATE IN BEING BULLISH!!
2)
IF ANALYSTS ARE SO EARLY IN PREDICTING,THEY WOULD HAVE STARTED DOWNGRADING EITHER IN APRIL 2012 OR LATEST BY SEPT2012!!YET WE SEE ANALYSTS ONLY STARTED DOWNGRADING IN FEB2013!!!
ANALYSTS ARE LATE IN BEING BEARISH,LATE IN BEING BULLISH!!
1) Goldman Sachs Turns Bearish on Gold, Slashes '13, '14 Forecasts
Published April 10, 2013
FOXBusiness
-
Reuters
Pointing to forecasts for stronger U.S. economic growth later this year, longtime gold bull Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its price targets on the precious metal on Wednesday, warning prices could tumble below $1,300 an ounce by the end of 2014.
The Wall Street heavyweight not only told investors to close their long gold position, Goldman is now recommending a short COMEX gold position as one of its top trades.
“While there are risks for modest near-term upside to gold prices should U.S. growth continue to slow down, we see risks to current prices as skewed to the downside as we move through 2013,” Goldman analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a note to clients.
Marking Goldman’s second downgrade in six weeks, the analysts cut their average 2013 gold price forecast to $1,545 from $1,610 and their 2014 average to $1,350 from $1,490. Goldman also set a $1,450 year-end target for 2013 and a $1,270 year-end target for next year.
Goldman cited gold’s “recent lackluster price action” even after the deposit bail-in debacle in Cyprus as well as its economists’ forecasts for U.S. growth to accelerate later this year to above-trend pace, supporting U.S. real rates.
“While we may be end up too early in entering this trade, we prefer that to being late given our belief that the skew to current prices is to the downside,” Goldman wrote.
The downgrade helped weigh on the metals market on Wednesday. Gold dropped $10.00 a troy ounce, or 0.63%, to $1,576.70, putting the precious metal on pace to extend its slump of more than 5% so far this year. Gold has retreated over 16% since hitting record closing highs of $1,880.70 in August 2011.
Goldman advised clients to close their long COMEX gold position that the bank first initiated on October 11, 2010 back when gold traded at about $1,345 a troy ounce.
On a longer-term front, Goldman said its price forecast for 2017 and beyond remains at $1,200. “While higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next bond cycle, this is likely several years away,” the firm warned.
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2013/04/10/goldman-sachs-lowers-gold-forecast-for-2013-2014/#ixzz2QdjPJmNX
2)
Published April 10, 2013
FOXBusiness
- Reuters
The Wall Street heavyweight not only told investors to close their long gold position, Goldman is now recommending a short COMEX gold position as one of its top trades.
“While there are risks for modest near-term upside to gold prices should U.S. growth continue to slow down, we see risks to current prices as skewed to the downside as we move through 2013,” Goldman analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a note to clients.
Marking Goldman’s second downgrade in six weeks, the analysts cut their average 2013 gold price forecast to $1,545 from $1,610 and their 2014 average to $1,350 from $1,490. Goldman also set a $1,450 year-end target for 2013 and a $1,270 year-end target for next year.
Goldman cited gold’s “recent lackluster price action” even after the deposit bail-in debacle in Cyprus as well as its economists’ forecasts for U.S. growth to accelerate later this year to above-trend pace, supporting U.S. real rates.
“While we may be end up too early in entering this trade, we prefer that to being late given our belief that the skew to current prices is to the downside,” Goldman wrote.
The downgrade helped weigh on the metals market on Wednesday. Gold dropped $10.00 a troy ounce, or 0.63%, to $1,576.70, putting the precious metal on pace to extend its slump of more than 5% so far this year. Gold has retreated over 16% since hitting record closing highs of $1,880.70 in August 2011.
Goldman advised clients to close their long COMEX gold position that the bank first initiated on October 11, 2010 back when gold traded at about $1,345 a troy ounce.
On a longer-term front, Goldman said its price forecast for 2017 and beyond remains at $1,200. “While higher inflation may be the catalyst for the next bond cycle, this is likely several years away,” the firm warned.
Gold Gets Another Downgrade This Time From SocGen
Gold received a sell recommendation from Goldman Sachs yesterday. ‘Surprisingly‘, SocGen is also lowering their price target for the precious metal. SocGen has decreased their gold price estimate from $1,800 to $1,500/oz and silver price from $30 to $27/oz, to bring our models into line with SocGen’s commodity team’s new (bearish) forecasts for gold, and to a lesser extent silver, prices.
Price headwinds
Rising interest rates and a stronger dollar on US recovery
SocGen economists believe that 2013 will see an inflection point on growth in the US Global Economic Outlook – Test-driving the recovery. Signs of recovery have already ignited the debate on QE exit. This matters to gold because an important driver of investor gold behaviour is the perception of inflation risks, and the precious is generally seen as a good hedge against the debasement of fiat money.
Throughout the period of QE inflation has remained low (and US inflation has been trending lower since late 2011), and now SocGen believes we are beginning to see the economic conditions that justify an end to the Fed’s QE, while the US dollar has started trending higher. It seems unlikely that investors would want to add to their long gold positions in this context. If so, the gold price should trend lower as the physical gold market is seriously oversupplied without continued large-scale investor buying. SocGen forecasts the price to fall below $1400 by year end and to continue to trend lower next year.
The central scenario assumes continued QE out to the final months of 2013, albeit at a slower pace in the fourth quarter. And once the Fed signals an end or scaling down of bond purchases Treasury yields are likely to bottom out and begin their gradual normalisation. The metal has no yield, so the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases with a decline in real interest rates and increases with a rise in rates. If history provides guidance, returning to positive ‘real rates’ would create significant headwinds for gold.
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