英明智富 2月 2日 星期三
再談「看見別人看不到」
作者: 黃國英 (內容由Quamnet提供)
舊作《值博率煉金術》嘗言：「投資投機，似易實難，源於思考過程，很多時與正常人的思維，剛剛好調轉」，要「看見別人看不到」，才能致富。有些讀者，閱畢仍不明，故再作解釋。
海嘯後，零息加通脹，人的思想、行為，潛移默化。正如陶冬先生所言：「零息，逼良為娼」: 一普通打工仔來函，近日心急如焚，何解？擔心通脹。父母皆退休，積蓄不厚，零息年代，早受打擊。傳媒報章，關於通脹報道，鋪天蓋地，情緒深受牽動，憂心父母生活，終歸無以為計，急問抗通脹良法，冒險亦在所不計。另同事換樓，先沽後買，加班夜歸，幾檯買家，竟在門外守候。叫高市價過成，睇樓十五分鐘，交易立成，快過賣菜。買家甘冒風險，屈指一算，稅前租金回報只四厘多，扣除管理費、差餉、地租、物業稅和利息，實收不足三釐，再扣通脹，回報實為負數。
查實通脹之勢，早已形成多時，國內CPI， 節節上升；人民幣升值，國內輸入日用品、食物價格，水漲船高，不在話下。奇就奇在普羅大眾，到今時今日，才「恍然大悟」。去年三月，已寫過：「未來數年， 會是通脹？還是通縮？這個問題掌握得好，往後幾年的投資回報，才有望理想。」建議買入鈀金及地產，作資產配置。年底，仍不斷呼籲買入房地產基金(REITS)，「REITS 即TIPS(通脹掛鈎債券)，結果…
普通人永不能低買高沽，只因「眼見方為實」：定要看見「實質」「證據」，如傳媒繪聲繪影、感情洋溢的報道，以及股價、交易量抽升，方「恍然大悟」，繼而急速行動。但到全世界都「恍然大悟」，股價早已全面反映，往往是開到茶靡之時。近例：《頭條日報》越印越厚，廣告益多，不難明白。低位乏人問津，到發現Bolton入股，「都話星島(1105)係好，又破頂，殺呀！」結果$3.17跌到$2.53，捱價不絕。「恍然大悟」一刻，實為最兇險之時。「人人讚好影都無」，其理在此。
投資高手，必具察覺大趨勢「大風起於萍末」之能力。七四年，日本衰退、石油危機，政府削支，水泥業受創極深。七六年，是川銀藏憑空推論，政府必興土木、創就業、振經濟，水泥必否極泰來。
立收集六億日圓日本水泥，時水泥股可謂「霉到無朋友」，連公司總經理，都不信有此「善長仁翁」，急探聽是川是否別有所圖。是川判定無人能看見未發生之事，悠然買進。年底，新內閣上台，果真大興土木，水泥價量齊升。翌年，是川終大賺五倍離場，高追接貨就輸五成。
「看見別人看不到」，「舉世滔滔都向東，就我一人偏向西」，低位悠然買盡，高位迅速賣出，為是川過人之處。但知易行難，眼光、耐性、注碼調配，缺一不可。吾生有涯，而股無涯，屢錯後，冀求終悟。 (客戶持有星島)
WHAT DOES THE SENTENCE IN BOLD SAYS?
LAYMEN WILL NEVER BUY LOWS BECAUSE THEY OBEY NEWS AND WANT TO SEE RISING,THEN FOLLOW.
BY THEN ITS THE END!
then they will blame EVERYBODY else BUT themselves.
for example, a businessman i talk to can never get it right then oil price goes up DOES NOT MEAN oil stocks MUST go up.
in mar09,i said stckmarket lowest (dont believe me,please see my 09 posts)
WHO BELIEVES ME?some think im crazy.my Fucked up relative told me he wants to wait for safety,willing to forego a premium.BUT HE NEVER EXPECTED THAT the premium will be so huge!! A NEAR 100% RISE IN STI in just 4-5months!
SO FOR
THOSE WHO NOW DONT ENTER,SAY HIGH
+ IN MAR09 LOWEST ALSO DONT ENTER,HAVE 1001 EXCUSES
PLEASE TAKE A VIBRATOR AND ENTER YOURSELF(OR SHOULD I BUY 1 FOR YOU???)
THE STOCKMARKET IS NOT FOR PUSSIES LIKE YOU
(please note:im not saying there will not be any drops,corrections or retracements,BUT STCKMKT IS STILL CHEAP in jan2011
THERE WILL BE an IMPENDING retracement of 6pc starting from next week starting feb 7 2011)
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS
THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF
PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU
SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations
UPTRENDS-
1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend
2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.
3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.
4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.
5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.
6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.
7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.
8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.
9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.
10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,
CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS
1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500
2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks
3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------
eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed
eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..
1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065
-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010
-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge
-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010
2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.
-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011
-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370
-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders
-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074
THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG
LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN
1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"
2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"
3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.
4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS
5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT
6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF
I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!
1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??
GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.
19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK
3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK
4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????
N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)
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