SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS




THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF

PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU

SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE

SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations

UPTRENDS-

1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend

2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.

3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.

4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.

5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.

6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.

7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.

8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.

9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.

10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,

CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS

1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500

2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks

3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------

eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed

eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..

1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065

-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010

-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge

-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010

2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.

-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011

-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370

-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders

-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074

THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG


LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN

1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"

2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"

3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.

4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS

5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT

6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF

I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!

1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??

GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.


19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK





3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK

4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????








N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)



Friday, February 19, 2010

what great economists said during and after great depression


"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

"I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929

"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929

"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929

"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 10, 1929

"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929

"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929

"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Mar 29, 1930

"... the outlook is favorable..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Apr 19, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930

"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), Oct 31, 1931

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Jobless Recovery
What Does Jobless Recovery Mean?
An economic recovery, following a recession, where the economy as a whole improves, but the unemployment rate remains high or continues to increase over a prolonged period of time. This effect may be a result of cautious businesses that add hours to existing employees in order to increase production capacity rather than hiring new workers. Investopedia explains Jobless Recovery
An example of a jobless recovery occurred in the early 1990s. While the American recession from the late 1980s technically ended in the first quarter of 1991, the unemployment rate did not actually stabilize until the middle of 1992

from investopedia

who says jobs must recover then econ recover?? jobs are for commoners...people who create crisis dont listen to commoners
A Review Of Past Recessions
by Dan Barufaldi (Contact Author | Biography)Email Article Print FeedbackReprintsFiled Under: Economics, Insurance


Did you know that there have been several recessions in the U.S. since the "Great Depression"? It's surprising to be sure, especially when you see these events covered in the media as one-time horrors.

Let's take a look at some of these recessions, how long they lasted, how they affected gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment, and what is known about what caused them. (For more on this read, What Caused The Great Depression? and The Crash of 1929 - Could It Happen Again?)

What's a Recession?
A recession historically has been defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, the combined value of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. It differs from the gross national product (GNP) in that it does not include the value of goods and services produced by U.S. companies abroad or goods and services received in the U.S. as imports. (For more on this see, The Importance of Inflation and GDP.)

A more modern definition of a recession that's used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Dating Committee, the group entrusted to call the start and end dates of a recession, is "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

In 2007, an economist at the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), Jeremy J. Nalewaik, suggested that a combination of GDP and gross domestic income (GDI) may be more accurate in predicting and defining a recession.

The Roosevelt Recession: (May 1937 - June 1938)

Duration: 13 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.4
Unemployment Rate: 19.1% (more than four million unemployed)
Reasons and Causes: The stock market crashed in late 1937. Business blamed the "New Deal", a series of government-financed infrastructure work projects through the Works Projects Administration (WPA) and Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). These camps provided work and room and board for more than 250,000 men. Government blamed a "capital strike" (lack of investment) on the part of business while "New Dealers" blamed cuts in WPA funding. The first Social Security Insurance deductions pulled $2 billion out of circulation at this time.
The Union Recession: (February 1945 - October 1945)

Duration: 9 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 11
Unemployment Rate: 1.9%
Reasons and Causes: The tail-end of World War II, the beginning of demobilization of military forces and the slow transition to civilian production marked this period. War production had virtually ceased and veterans were just beginning to re-enter the workforce. It was also known as the "Union Recession" as unions were beginning to reassert themselves. Minimum wages were on the rise and credit was tight.
The Post-War Recession: (November 1948 - October 1949)

Duration: 11 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 1.1
Unemployment Rate: 5.9%
Reasons and Causes: As returning veterans returned to the workforce in large numbers to compete for jobs with existing civilian workers who had entered the workforce during the war, unemployment began to rise. The government's response was minimal as it was much more worried about inflation than unemployment at that time.
The Post-Korean War Recession: (July 1953 - May 1954)

Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 2.2
Unemployment Rate: 2.9% (lowest rate since WWII)
Reasons and causes: After an inflationary period that followed the Korean War, more dollars were directed at national security. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to curb inflation in 1952. The dramatic change in interest rates caused increased pessimism about the economy and decreased aggregate demand.
The Eisenhower Recession: (August 1957 - April 1958)

Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.3%
Unemployment Rate: 6.2%
Reasons and Causes: The government tightened monetary policy to years prior to the recession to curb inflation, but prices continued to rise in the U.S. through 1959. The sharp world-wide recession and the strong U.S. dollar contributed to a foreign trade deficit. (For another view on trade deficits read, In Praise of Trade Deficits.)
The "Rolling Adjustment" Recession: (April 1960 - February 1961)

Duration: 10 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 2.4
Unemployment Rate: 6.9%
Reasons and Causes: This recession was also known as the "rolling adjustment" for many major U.S. industries, including the automotive industry. Americans shifted to buying compact and often foreign-made cars and industry drew down inventories. Gross national product (GNP) and product demand declined.
The Nixon Recession: (December 1969 - November 1970)

Duration: 11 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 0.8
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: Increasing inflation caused the government to employ a very restrictive monetary policy. The structure of government expenditures added to the contraction in economic activity.
The Oil Crisis Recession: (November 1973 - March 1975)
Duration: 16 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 3.6
Unemployment Rate: 8.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long, deep recession was brought on by the quadrupling of oil prices and high government spending on the Vietnam War. This led to "stagflation" and high unemployment. Unemployment finally reached 9% in May of 1975. (For more on this see, Stagflation, 1970s Style.)
The Energy Crisis Recession: (January 1980 - July 1980)
Duration: 6 months
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 1.1%
Unemployment Rate: 7.8%
Reasons and Causes: Inflation had reached 13.5% and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and slowed money supply growth, which slowed the economy and caused unemployment to rise. Energy prices and supply were put at risk causing a confidence crisis as well as inflation.

The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession: (July 1981 - November 1982)

Duration: 16 months.
Magnitude:
GDP decline: 3.6%
Unemployment Rate: 10.8%
Reasons and Causes: This long and deep recession was caused by the regime change in Iran; the world's second largest producer of oil at the time, the country came to regard the U.S. as a supporter of its ousted regime. The "New" Iran exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at lower volumes, forcing prices higher. The U.S. government enforced a tighter monetary policy to control rampant inflation, which had been carried over from the previous two oil and energy crises. The prime rate reached 21.5% in 1982.
The Gulf War Recession: (July 1990 - March 1991)

Duration: 8 months
Magnitude:
GDP Decline: 1.5
Unemployment Rate: 6.8%
Reasons and causes: Iraq invaded Kuwait. This resulted in a spike in the price of oil in 1990, which caused manufacturing trade sales to decline. This was combined with the impact of manufacturing being moving offshore as the provisions of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) kicked in. The leveraged buyout of United Airlines triggered a stock market crash.
The 9/11 Recession: (March 2001 - November 2001)
Duration: 8 months
Magnitude
GDP Decline: 0.3
Unemployment Rate: 5.5%
Reasons and Causes: The collapse of the dotcom bubble, the 9/11 attacks and a series of accounting scandals at major U.S. corporations contributed to this relatively mild contraction of the U.S. economy. In the next few months, GDP recovered to its former level. (For more information, read Crashes: The Dotcom Crash.)
Conclusions
So what do all these very different recessions have in common? For one, oil price, demand and supply sensitivity appear to be consistent and frequent historical precursors to U.S. recessions. A spike in oil prices has preceded nine out of 10 post-WWII recessions. This highlights that while global integration of economies allows for more effective cooperative efforts between governments to prevent or mitigate future recessions, the integration itself ties the world economies more closely together, making them more susceptible to problems outside their borders. Better government safeguards should soften the effects of recessions as long as regulations are in place and enforced; better communications technology and sales & inventory tracking allows businesses and governments to have better transparency on a real time basis so that corrective actions are made to forestall the accumulation of factors and indicators contributing to or signaling a recession.

More recent recessions, such as the housing bubble, the resulting credit crisis and the subsequent government bailouts are examples of excesses not properly or competently regulated by the patchwork of government regulation of financial institutions. (For another perspective on credit crisis, see The Bright Side of The Credit Crisis.)

Contraction and expansion cycles of moderate amplitude are part of the economic system. World events, energy crises, wars and government intervention in markets can affect economies both positively and negatively, and will continue to do so in the future. Expansions have historically exceeded previous highs in economic growth trends if capitalist fundamentals applied within regulatory guidelines govern the markets.



by Dan Barufaldi , (Contact Author | Biography)

Dan Barufaldi is an Independent Consultant associated with the management consulting and global business development firm, Globe Lynx Group, located in Lewiston, NY. He has a Bachelors degree in economics from Cornell University. Barufaldi has authored business articles and columns in four newspapers and several Chamber of Commerce publications.

Filed Under: Economics, Insurance

Sunday, February 14, 2010

12 yrs ago was Clob, Now its S shares


http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/viewtopic.php?t=320153

look at how lousy singapore financial hub is
DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Undervalued Given Growth Outlook -ML (2007/07/02 14:23PM)


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0623 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China (B15.SG) is undervalued given its steady growth outlook, nationwide franchise and China''s booming cosmetics market, according to Merrill Lynch. Company due to acquire new plant for HK$293 million in 2H07 which Merrill says could be long-term positive; however, warns "it raises its risk profile in the near term given BCH''s lack of track record in this area." Brokerage has Buy rating, S$1.38 price target; trades down 0.8% at S$1.25 on thin volume, support at intraday low of S$1.22. (JEM)
DJ MARKET TALK: Harvest Fund QDII To Benefit S-Chips - UBS (2007/10/02 10:26AM)


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0226 GMT [Dow Jones] China''s approval last week for Harvest Fund QDII to invest in S-chips was six months ahead of expectations, says UBS. Expects move to trigger wave of liquidity in China shares listed in Singapore, or S-shares, which trade at a discount to Hong Kong peers; says companies with unique China exposure vs mainland and Hong Kong offerings look the most attractive. Top S-chip picks are Hungguo (H14.SG), Sino Environment (Y62.SG) and Raffles Education (R17.SG). (KIG)


Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 150;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 01, 2007 22:26 ET (02:26 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. DJ MARKET TALK:Merrill Cuts Celestial Target To S$1.18, Keeps Buy (2008/02/26 11:10AM)


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0310 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Merrill Lynch lowers target price for Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) to S$1.18 from S$1.92, but keeps Buy call. Says firm likely to continue facing high soybean costs. "We believe the group could only pass on part of the higher costs and forecast an 8% drop in FY08 margins," says analyst Eddy Loh in note. But notes Celestial''s 4Q07 results were within expectations; company likely to see robust sales growth in 2008 through launch of new beverage and powder products, commercial startup of biodiesel plant in 3Q08. Share down 5.6% at S$0.67. (FCS)


DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Celestial Nutrifoods At Outperform (2007/10/08 10:35AM)


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0235 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Celestial Nutrifoods (C56.SG) at Outperform, maintains S$2.23 target price. "We recently visited Celestial''s production facilities in Lindian and Daqing, China and came away convinced that its expansion plans are on track." Notes company has started producing two new products on trial basis, new biodiesel plant nearly completed, products prominently displayed in leading Chinese supermarkets. Says positive on outlook, but no change to earnings estimates. Stock currently +0.6% at S$1.55. (KIG)


DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises Ferrochina Target Price To S$2.44 (2008/05/22 11:51AM)


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0351 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises Ferrochina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.44 from S$2.11, reiterates Outperform call after plant visit. Broker says steel product maker''s expansion of Xinghai and Xingyu facilities appears to be on track. Adds new product lines should boost output, improve product mix and gross margins; company seeking strategic investor to move further upstream in order to secure raw materials. Says target price hike reflects, "improved business visibility and possible value-creation from strategic investors." New target price still assumes 35% discount to industry peers to reflect its smaller size. Share down 0.6% at S$1.64. (KIG)

DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Raises FerroChina Target To S$2.11 (2008/04/29 16:35PM)


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0835 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB raises FerroChina (F33.SG) target price to S$2.11 from S$2.09 after increasing FY08 earnings estimate 15% on enlarged capacity and higher average selling prices, or ASPs. Also raises FY09-10 forecasts to account for the timing of new capacity, higher ASPs, higher group expenses, lower forex gains. "Given FRC''s excellent business visibility, we maintain Outperform." Notes 1Q08 net profit +161% on-year at CNY188.5 million, came in 15% above house''s annualized estimate, but 6% below market consensus. Says key variance higher revenue of CNY3 billion (+167% on-year) with increased capacity from Superb Team acquisition, higher ASPs on strong demand, significantly higher other income as a result of forex gains from weaker USD/CNY, USD/SGD; notes 1Q08 net profit marks 23% of house''s FY08 forecast. Notes gross margin steady at 8.8% despite rising HRC feedstock prices, exacerbated by higher iron ore and coking coal prices. Share down 4.9% at S$1.37. (LES)
DJ MARKET TALK: DBS Keeps FerroChina At Buy, Target At S$3.38 (2007/10/25 16:29PM)


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0829 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: DBS Vickers keeps FerroChina (F33.SG) at Buy, with target price at S$3.38 after company visit. "We continue to like FerroChina given its firm growth outlook, driven by both organic expansion and acquisitions." Says valuations undemanding at less than 9X FY08 earnings, with share one of cheapest Singapore-listed China plays above S$1 billion in market capitalization. "The successful acquisition of Superb Team will help transform FerroChina into one of China''s largest independent galvanised steel producers and help underpin robust earnings growth into FY09." Notes FerroChina to be among 10 largest S-chip by market capitalization after purchase; says should help attract QDII funds. Share up 4.2% at S$2.48. (LES)

DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina May Become Blue Chip - CIMB (2007/05/22 16:26PM)


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0826 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) off 0.9% at S$2.30 in heavy volume, slips back on profit taking after equaling record high of S$2.43 set on Friday. CIMB says company "poised to become a major global galvanized steel player and is likely to achieve blue-chip status in a few years." Keeps at Outperform with target price of S$3.10, based on 9.0X CY08 P/E; says "as the company continues to grow in size and establishes itself as a global leader in galvanized steel, we believe it should at least trade closer to its peers." Thinks expansion activities could lead to a threefold expansion in capacity in coming years. (JEM)


DJ MARKET TALK: Ferrochina Valuations Very Undemanding - Daiwa (2007/06/29 09:19AM)


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0119 GMT [Dow Jones] Ferrochina (F33.SG) +0.9% at S$2.21 on thin volume; current valuations very undemanding, with the stock trading at a 36% PER discount to Hong Kong-listed integrated steel stocks, according to Daiwa. Following company gaining full control over its associate, Superb Team, brokerage estimates total processing capacity will increase to 1.7 million tonnes, 4.25 million tonnes for FY07, FY08 respectively (+86%, 151% on year); says "resultant synergies and margin expansion would drive stronger earnings growth for FY07 and FY08." Raises target price to S$3.42 from S$2.29, keeps at Buy; upside capped at week high of S$2.30. (JEM)



DJ MARKET TALK: MS Starts China Milk At Overweight, S$2 Target (2007/11/02 13:57PM)


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0557 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley starts China Milk Products Group (G86.SG) at Overweight with S$2 target. Says company is one of best plays on resource productivity, with cattle herd boasting best composition of pedigree bulls, cows in China. "We believe the market is missing the full benefits of the management''s ability to improve herd mix to drive higher milk yield, quality cattle semen and embryos, and in turn support margin trend, along with a further government push to improve cattle genetics in China." Stock +3.3% at S$1.24 midday. (FKH)

DJ MARKET TALK: Phillip Upgrades China Sun To Buy, 85.5C Target (2007/05/29 10:03AM)


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0203 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Phillip Securities ups China Sun Bio-chem Technology (C86.SG) to Buy from Hold, lifts fair value to S$0.855 from S$0.81; notes stock currently trades at valuations of 7.9x FY07 PER, 6.3x FY08 PER, believes "such low valuations are unjustified, given its leading industry position and medium term growth potential." Expects adjusted EPS to grow at 3-year CAGR of 19% between FY07, FY09 after company posted 23% on year rise in 1Q07 net profit to CNY82.1 million. Trades up 0.8% at S$0.67 on modest volume. (JEM)


DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Selloff Is Overreaction - ML (2007/09/27 08:15AM)


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0015 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG) share price fall on news 3Q earnings growth may slow is unjustified, says Merrill Lynch. "In our view, the market simply overreacted. We have pointed out our expectations for a slower 2H07 many times in our research, and BCH has also communicated cost concerns with investors before." Adds company remains cheapest China consumer play; "the recent price weakness represents a good entry point." No change to earnings forecast, reiterates Buy rating, maintains S$1.38 target. Shares closed down 2.7% at S$1.09 yesterday.(KIG)

DJ MARKET TALK: CIMB Keeps Beauty China At Outperform, Tgt S$1.67 (2007/11/22 16:12PM)


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0812 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CIMB reiterates Beauty China (B15.SG) at Outperform with target price of S$1.67; says target at 60% discount to China retail peers due to its smaller size. Says Beauty China trading at 9X 2009 earnings vs 20X for Singapore-listed China retail stock China Hongxing (BR9.SG). Notes commercial production at company''s new plant began mid-October, group has secured HK$2 million worth of orders. Notes 9M07 earnings about 68% of CIMB FY forecast; projects 4Q07 revenue of HK$197.8 million with net profit at HK$38.2 million; expects margins to narrow on seasonally higher A&P expenses, higher packaging costs, start-up losses from new plant. Share down 4.6% at S$1.24; STI down 0.9%. (LES)

DJ MARKET TALK: Beauty China Fundamentals Still Good -UOBKH (2008/06/13 14:07PM)


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0607 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Beauty China''s (B15.SG)fundamentals remain intact with no slowdown for China retail sales, says UOB KayHian; reiterates Buy call, keeps target price unchanged at S$1.38. Notes cosmetics firm''s shares are now 43% below 52-week high of S$1.48 hit on Jan 2; blames fears of slowdown in consumption following China snowstorms, earthquake and concerns over margin squeeze from higher raw material prices. But says China retail sales still solid, registering record high in April whilst new products, increasing utilization rates should help ease margin pressure. "Considering the bright prospects of the cosmetics industry, the production ramp-up at the new plant and the launch of new products with higher margins, we remain positive on the stock." Shares currently down 0.6% at S$0.84. (KIG)









I REPOST OLD NEWS TO SHOW THAT NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS ARE WORSE AND MORE INACCURATE THAN TECHNICALS... PUI ;OUSY S SHARES!!LUCKILY DUE TO ME LOOKING DOWN ON SINGAPORE ABILITY TO ATTRACT BIG FOREIGN COMPANIES,I DECIDED TO INVEST IN ZERO S SHARES FOR LONG TERM SINCE 2005.AND NOW WITH THESE NEWS ON CHINA MILK I WILL NOT EVEN TOUCH THEM FOR DAY TRADING..

I NEVER EVEN KENA ONE SUSPENDED SHARE DUE TO MY PRUDENCE.
AsiaWater
BeautyChina
Celestial
ChinaESave
ChinaMilk
ChinaSun
ChinaPDye
FerroChina
Fibrechem
GuangZhaoIFB
OrientCent
SinoEnv
Zhonghui


"superb" s shares..
HOW MANY MORE WILL SUSPEND??

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Home > Breaking News > Singapore > Story
Feb 12, 2010

S'pore - 53rd most liveable

By Jessica

SINGAPORE scores highly in areas like infrastructure and stability, but fares poorly in culture and living environment indices.

As a result, it was ranked the 53rd most liveable city in the annual survey by the The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which compared 140 cities worldwide. Vancouver again topped the list, followed by Vienna and Melbourne in Australia. Three other Australian cities also made it to the top 10 list - Sydney, Perth and Adelaide.

The Republic scored better than culture capitals New York and London, which lost out because of crumbling infrastructure, but lagged behind other Asian capitals like Hong Kong, Tokyo and Osaka.

The survey examined 30 factors in five categories - stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education as well as infrastructure. Singapore obtained an overall score of 88.5/100.

The annual survey uses research involving resident experts and its own analysts.

Singapore lost out in the environment and culture category, in which it scored 75.7/100, lower than Hong Kong and South Korea. But it got full marks for infrastructure. The Lion City also fared well for stability, healthcare and education.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010


WHY THE FINAL TARGET OF 2375--2400???

point1:
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WAVE 2 OF 5 WAVE ELLIOT THEORY..

WHY WAVE 2??

--from Elliott wave principle
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

WAVE 1 WAS STI VALUE FROM 1455 TO 2950 AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CORRECTIONS--a correction is defined to be 10 percent or more..

a.in april 2009-sti drop from 1942 to 1791--drop of 8.3pervcent

b.in may 2009,sti drop from 2283 to 2094--drop of 8.3percent ALSO!!!!

c. in june-july 2009,sti drop from 2417 to 2211--a drop of 8.5percent !

d. in aungust 2009, sti drop from 2700 to 2521--drop of only 6.7percent

THERE ARE NO 10PERCENT DROPS--CORRECTIONS as yet hence sti is due for a correction of at MOST 20percent from 2950...

point 2 :why 20percent??--because technically speakinga 20percent drop from the top is defined as "BEAR MARKET ENTRY POINT",hence there will be a lot of support there--
hence 80percent of 2950--2360!!!

point 3: as stated just now in point 1.--Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

wave 1 gains stand at 1500 points:the 61.8percent of wave 1 stands at 2380!!!(depicted in chart)

point 4:300day SMA stands at 2295 as of 10feb 2010,hence when sti drift downwards,the 300days SMA shall go up to around 2350s-2400s

point 5: wave 3 is the strongest and longest wave of 5wave elliot theory..

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.---wikipedia

hence 2375 will be the BEST launching pad to take sti to 3900,the 2007 highest point--as wave 1 was 1500points---u add that to wave 3 which is MINIMUM 1500points--WONT U GET 3900 minimum??

and as stated wave 3 extends wave 1 by 161.8percent ABOVE---hence sti will crack the 3900 and probably to 4700!!!!!!!!!

point no.6--sti BREAK DOWN of channel of 200points--2700 to 2521--hence the target is also 2300s to 2400.


in conclusion---please dont miss wave 3 UP!!

Saturday, January 30, 2010

Swiber Holdings Limited (the “Company”) was informed on 27 January 2010 by a substantial shareholder, Goh Kim Teck, that he has entered into a credit facility with Credit Suisse AG,. Goh Kim Teck had entered into the following transactions with Credit Suisse AG:

(1) a sale of 15,000,000 ordinary shares of the Company to Credit Suisse AG;

(2) an uncapped collar transaction, involving the following:

(a) a put option granted by Credit Suisse AG to Goh Kim Teck relating to 15,000,000 ordinary shares of the Company with a strike price of S$1.0009;

(b) a call option granted by Goh Kim Teck to Credit Suisse AG relating to the same number of shares with a strike price of S$1.1121; and

(c) a further call option granted by Credit Suisse AG to Goh Kim Teck relating to the same number of shares with a strike price of S$1.3345; and

(3) another call option granted by Credit Suisse AG to Goh Kim Teck over the same number of shares with a strike price of S$0.00.

The purpose of transactions (1) to (3) was to provide Credit Suisse AG with collateral for the credit facility using the shares. As a result of transaction (1) Goh Kim Teck direct interest in the shares of the Company was reduced by 15,000,000 shares. As a result of transaction (3) Goh Kim Teck deemed interest in the shares of the Company was increased by the same amount. Goh Kim Teck total percentage level in the shares of the Company remains unchanged. As a result of transaction (2)(c), Goh Kim Teck retains the benefit of all the upside in the share price above the strike price.

Monday, January 25, 2010

buy more when hsi crosses 20828
ANOTHER ROUND OF KATEKS TRAP

AS IF THE BERNANKE POSITIVE NEWS IS NOT ENOUGH---

1.--BOJ Said to Be Open to Expanding Emergency Loans, Bond Buying

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of Japan policy makers are prepared to consider expanding an emergency-loan program for banks and increasing purchases of government debt should the recovery falter, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The central bank’s board will leave interest rates and its lending program unchanged tomorrow, 16 of 17 economists said in a Bloomberg News survey. How it responds in coming months will depend on the extent of any further economic shocks -- such as a surge in the yen to November’s 14-year high -- the people said on condition of anonymity because the talks are private.

“Should a rise in the yen threaten to damp corporate and consumer sentiment and exacerbate deflation, the BOJ will probably expand the loan program,” said Masaaki Kanno, a 25- year veteran of the central bank who is now chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. “If that’s not enough, the bank may turn to more bond buying.”

While increased liquidity injections may help restrain the yen, an expansion of the monthly 1.8 trillion yen ($20 billion) of bond purchases may spark concern the BOJ is financing the government’s deficit spending. Central bankers would have to counter any such perception, and may need to stress the urgency for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s administration to rein in the budget gap, one of the people said.

The Bank of Japan may be unique in considering additional monetary stimulus among the Group of 20 major economies this year. Exporters have led the rebound from the country’s worst postwar recession as falling wages, job losses and factory overcapacity hamper spending and deepen price declines at home.

Expand Credit Program

Central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues, who begin a two-day meeting today, will leave the benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent tomorrow, according to all of the 17 economists surveyed.

One of the analysts, Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo and a former BOJ official, said the bank may expand the 10 trillion yen lending program it introduced Dec. 1 in reaction to the yen’s climb to 84.83 per dollar. The currency jumped more than 1 percent at the end of last week, to as high as 89.79 in Tokyo trading, underscoring the risk to the nation’s exporters.

The emergency lending facility, which provides commercial banks with funds for three months at 0.1 percent, could be expanded in stages, one of the people said. Along with increasing the size, officials might extend the maturity of the loans to six months, and later to 12 months, the person said.

‘Crucial Challenge’

Governor Shirakawa said last week that stamping out deflation is a “crucial challenge” and the bank will persist with its low-rate policy to aid growth. He said he expects the economy to keep growing, fueled by overseas sales, though the revival of exports and output has yet to spur domestic demand.

When the yen was trading around 93 per dollar on Jan. 7, Finance Minister Naoto Kan said he wanted it to weaken “a bit more” and he will seek to cooperate with the Bank of Japan on the currency’s level. The yen’s gain last week made it stronger than the 90-to-mid-90s range that Kan has said manufacturers regard as “appropriate.”

There are “still various policy measures that could be taken” by the government and the bank, Kan said Jan. 14. Last week he said it “would be going too far if the government asked the BOJ to implement specific monetary policy measures.”

With a public debt that’s almost twice the size of the economy, Kan may have little room to increase spending beyond the record 92.3 trillion yen budgeted for the year starting April 1.

‘Put the Heat On’

“The government may put the heat on the BOJ should the yen gain rapidly and stocks slide before the fiscal year end,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “The government is overwhelmed by the task of passing next year’s budget bill, so it has no choice but to depend on the BOJ if the economy stumbles.”

So far, borrowing costs remain contained even as the fiscal condition deteriorates, as deflation attracts investors to government debt. The yield on the 10-year note was at 1.325 percent on Jan. 22.

“I see a 30 percent chance that the bank will buy more bonds,” said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The BOJ at heart probably wants to prevent more bond purchases because any increase would fuel speculation” that it will monetize the debt, Ueno said.

Any consideration by the board to buy more government bonds may hinge on whether the bank sticks to a self-imposed rule of limiting its holdings of the securities lower than the amount of bank notes in circulation. Bank notes are decreasing and the room to increase bond purchases is narrowing, one of the people with knowledge of the situation said.

Another option is for the bank to specify the period for keeping rates low, one of the people said, adding that it’s not currently an urgent issue. When it introduced a quantitative easing policy of pumping cash into the banking system in March 2001, it said the step would stay until prices stopped falling.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at motsuma@bloomberg.net; Masahiro Hidaka in Tokyo at mhidaka@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 24, 2010 10:01 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amzUp8cG7ZHs



2.-SEC May Approve Restrictions on Short Sales When Stocks Plunge
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

By Nina Mehta

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Concern that short-sellers accelerate stock declines may prompt the Securities and Exchange Commission to adopt a rule next month aimed at curbing bearish bets when equities are plunging.

The regulation would require the trades be executed above the best existing bid in the market when shares fall 10 percent in a day, said Brian Hyndman, the senior vice president in transaction services at Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. In a short sale, an investor borrows an asset and sells it, hoping to profit from a decrease by repurchasing it later at a lower price.

Forcing short sellers to wait for a stock to rise above the best price bid may prevent them from flooding the market with sell orders and causing losses to multiply. Some exchange officials say the restrictions known as uptick rules don’t work, citing studies that show they may be less effective during panics that drive prices down and volatility up.

“There is no empirical data to support the introduction of a new rule,” Hyndman said yesterday at a securities industry conference in Chicago. “But this is the least intrusive of the proposals the SEC was considering.”

Hyndman expects the SEC to adopt a so-called alternative uptick rule that includes a 10 percent trigger, changing regulations that were eliminated from U.S. markets in 2007. The commission asked the public last April to comment on strategies to cushion the impact of short selling following criticism that hedge funds and other speculators used trading tactics to deepen market retreats that began in 2008.

SEC spokesman John Heine declined to comment.

Computer Upgrades

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 9.1 percent in September 2008 after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the biggest-ever bankruptcy. The SEC implemented a ban on short selling more than 900 financial stocks that month after Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack and New York Senator Charles Schumer blamed the practice for driving companies to the brink of collapse.

The implementation date for the new rule is likely to be later in the year, according to Hyndman, who didn’t say what he was basing his estimate on. He said exchanges and brokers will probably have 180 days to upgrade their computer systems to accommodate the regulation.

Nasdaq in New York, Kansas City-based Bats Exchange and Jersey City, New Jersey-based Direct Edge Holdings LLC, which operates two alternative trading centers, have told the SEC that no new restrictions on short selling are needed. Paul Adcock, executive vice president in charge of trading at NYSE Arca, a unit of New York-based NYSE Euronext, said that while most exchanges oppose a new regulation, it’s probably inevitable.

Potential Impact

“Because the politicians and the public are all banging the drums, we’re not going to get away with this one,” Adcock said about the reluctance of exchanges to support new short- selling restrictions.

The SEC discussed the potential impact of such a rule when it proposed the alternative uptick last August. Because it would restrict short selling more than other proposals being considered, the regulation might “lessen some of the benefits of legitimate short selling, including market liquidity and pricing efficiency,” the commission said.

When the SEC proposed the alternative uptick rule, it said it would be easier for exchanges and brokers to implement than the former regulation that operated on the New York Stock Exchange for almost 70 years before its removal in 2007. That rule would no longer make sense in a marketplace of automated trading, the commission said.

No Trigger

The rule was proposed to the SEC last March by NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq, Bats and the Chicago-based National Stock Exchange. NYSE Euronext last June said it preferred a different bid test with no 10 percent threshold.

NYSE Euronext’s Adcock raised concern at yesterday’s conference that so-called circuit breakers setting off the restriction might keep stocks from falling as much as they should when a company reports bad news.

“Do you trigger the 10 percent when the stock should be trading down?” Adcock said. The trigger would be mandated uniformly across trading venues when a stock declines by the specified percentage.

Daniel Aromi and Cecilia Caglio, economists at the SEC in Washington, said in a December 2008 report to former Chairman Christopher Cox that even with uptick rules in place, short sellers in a simulation executed trades 25 percent faster on average when stocks plunged than when prices were steady.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nina Mehta in New York at nmehta24@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 23, 2010 00:00 EST
suddenly over the weekend,---KATEK TRAP!!KATEKS DIE PAIN PAIN!!!!!!

Bernanke Likely Has Votes to Gain Second Term: Analysis
Published: Saturday, 23 Jan 2010 | 10:46 PM ET Text Size By: Steve Liesman
Senior Economics Reporter


AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke likely has enough votes to overcome a filibuster and gain approval for a second term, according to several leading Senators and an analysis by CNBC of how lawmakers will likely vote.

The analysis also showed Bernanke would win confirmation with bipartisan support, although he will likely register more opposition than any Fed chairman in recent history.

Calls by CNBC to all 100 senators over the past two days found 36 in favor and 18 opposed, with the remaining undeclared. See a detailed tally of yes/no votes in the chart below.

But if the vote of the undeclared 46 senators is the same by party as those who have declared, Bernanke would garner 67 votes in favor, more than the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. He needs 51 to win approval.


The CNBC tally shows that, among the senators who have declared, 71 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Republicans currently supporting Bernanke.

Bernanke's chances got a boost late Friday when majority leader Harry Reid declared his support.

Late Saturday, Democratic Senator John Kerry joined Reid, saying, “Chairman Bernanke provided leadership that was urgent, nimble, strong and vital in staving off greater disaster."

Republican Senator Judd Gregg and Democratic Senator Chris Dodd in a joint statement insisted that the Fed Chairman has the votes: "Based on our discussions with our colleagues, we are very confident that Chairman Bernanke will win confirmation by the Senate for a second term.”

CNBC found 22 Democratic Senators in favor, compared with 9 opposed. Republican support, not evident yesterday, became more apparent on Saturday, with 13 Republicans voicing support and 8 opposing.


Senate Vote On Bernanke So Far
Senator Yes No
Daniel Akaka (D) HI X
Lamar Alexander (R) TN X
Max Baucus (D) MT X
Evan Bayh (D) IN X
Michael Bennet (D) CO X
Bob Bennett (R) UT X
Jeff Bingaman (D) NM X
Barbara Boxer (D) CA X
Sherrod Brown (D) OH X
Jim Bunning (R) KY X
Richard Burr (R) NC X
Thomas Carper (D) DE X
Susan Collins (R) ME X
Kent Conrad (D) ND X
Bob Corker (R) TN X
Mike Crapo (R) ID X
Christopher Dodd (D) CT X
Jim DeMint (R) SC X
Chris Dodd (D) CT X
Byron Dorgan (D) ND X
Dick Durbin (D) IL X
Russ Feingold (D) WI X
Lindsey Graham (R) SC X
Judd Gregg (R) NH X
Orrin Hatch (R) UT X
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) TX X
James Inhofe (R) X
Dan Inouye (D) HI X
Tim Johnson (D) SD X
Ted Kaufman (D) DE X
John Kerry (D) MA X
Herb Kohl (D) WI X
Jon Kyl (R) AZ X
Mary Landrieu (D) LA X
Frank Lautenberg (D) NJ X
Joseph Lieberman (I) CT X
Richard Lugar (R) IN X
Claire McCaskill (D) MO X
Jeff Merkley (D) OR X
Barbara Mikulski (D) MD X
Harry Reid (D) NV X
James Risch (R) ID X
Bernie Sanders (I) VT X
Charles Schumer (D) NY X
Jeff Sessions (R) AL X
Jeanne Shaheen (D) NH X
Richard Shelby (R) AL X
Arlen Specter (D) PA X
Jon Tester (D) MT X
Mark Udall (D) CO X
David Vitter (R) LA X
George Voinovich (R) OH X
Mark Warner (D) VA X
Jim Webb (D) VA X
Roger Wicker (R) MS X
TOTAL 36 18
*Does not include undecided senators
Source: CNBC


© 2010 CNBC.com


23rd jan 2010

Two Senior Senators Predict Bernanke Will Be Confirmed
Published: Saturday, 23 Jan 2010 | 5:16 PM ET Text Size By: Sewell Chan and David M. Herszenhorn
The New York Times
Two senior senators, a Democrat and a Republican, jointly issued a statement Saturday predicting that the Senate will confirm Ben S. Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, hoping to quell doubts that had shaken markets and forced the White House to scramble to keep him from becoming a casualty of populist anti-Wall Street fervor.

AP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Senator Christopher J. Dodd, the Democrat from Connecticut who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, a Republican who is a longtime member of the panel, said in their statement that “based on our discussions with our colleagues, we are very confident that Chairman Bernanke will win confirmation by the Senate for a second term.”

The senators referred to recent media reports “highlighting a very vocal opposition.” Two Democratic senators facing tough re-election races had announced at the end of the week they would be among those who would oppose Mr. Bernanke, and his prospects for winning the needed 60 votes suddenly were clouded.

Mr. Dodd, who recently decided to retire as his own re-election looked doubtful, and Mr. Gregg, who also is retiring, not only forecast Mr. Bernanke’s approval but also provided a fulsome endorsement.

“Chairman Bernanke has done an excellent job responding to one of the most significant financial crises our country has ever encountered,” they said. “We support his nomination because he is the right leader to guide the Federal Reserve in this recovering economy.”


In the mobilization on Mr. Bernanke’s behalf, the White House had by Friday night secured public support from the wavering Senate majority leader, Senator Harry Reid, the Democrat who has his own tough reelection contest in Nevada, along with several moderate Senate Democrats and circulated word of the support for Mr. Bernanke from respected billionaire Warren Buffett.
But even then Mr. Reid’s statement was remarkably unenthusiastic. After meeting with Mr. Bernanke on Thursday, Mr. Reid warned: “The American people expect our economic leaders to keep Wall Street honest and level the playing field for middle-class families.”

And in his statement Friday, Mr. Reid said he had decided to support Mr. Bernanke with trepidation and only after he received a commitment that the Fed chairman would take additional steps to increase the flow of credit to middle-class Americans.

While some Republicans were certain to oppose Mr. Bernanke, the minority leadership had its own strategic calculations to make.


Rejecting Mr. Bernanke, a Republican economist who was named chairman by President George W. Bush in 2005 and took over in 2006, could lead Mr. Obama to appoint someone from the ranks of Democratic economists that Republican lawmakers find less appealing. And if markets swooned, Republicans would share in the blame.

But even if the nomination is approved, the spasm of anxiety surrounding it will have highlighted how members of both parties are reassessing their stands on many issues as they try to understand the strain of anger toward the government, Wall Street and other institutions.

In the days since the Democrats lost a crucial Senate seat in Massachusetts, Mr. Obama has struck a tougher tone toward big banks. In the process he signaled a shift away from less aggressive regulatory policies backed by another architect of the bailout, Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary. On Friday in Ohio, Mr. Obama took a combative approach on health care reform and banking regulation.



But Mr. Obama cannot afford a failed nomination — the Senate has never before rejected a president’s nominee for Fed chairman — and he has publicly and privately backed Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Geithner for their roles in stabilizing the financial system and averting what could have been a wholesale collapse.



ON FRIDAY,22nd jan 2010--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bernanke Vote: 'Unthinkable Has Become a Possibility'
Published: Friday, 22 Jan 2010 | 5:55 PM ET Text Size By: Reuters
Ben Bernanke's nomination for a second term as U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, once seen as a sure thing, appeared in jeopardy on Friday after two more Senate Democrats said they would vote against it.

"I believe there will be the votes to confirm him. But it's going to be very close," a senior Democratic leadership aide said.
AP

With the U.S. job market in disarray and voters angry at Wall Street, members of Congress facing mid-term elections in November have come down hard on the central bank and its leadership. See the latest tally of announced voting decisions in the chart on page 2 of this story.

They say the Fed failed to prevent the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and combated the meltdown in a way that favored the financial sector at the expense of ordinary citizens.

Senators Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold brought the total of known "no" votes among the Democratic majority to four, while many others have said they were still on the fence.

"Our next Federal Reserve chairman must represent a clean break from the failed policies of the past," Boxer said. "It is time for Main Street to have a champion at the Fed."
The shift comes rather abruptly, and has added a new element of uncertainty to a stock market that had already been reeling in recent days. The S&P 500 fell into the red for the year on Friday, joining the Dow and Nasdaq indexes.

"The unthinkable has become a very real possibility—risks are rising that the Senate will unseat (him)," said Michael Feroli, economist at JP Morgan.

Chris Krueger of Concept Capital, a private firm that tracks Congress for institutional investors, said he sees a 55 percent chance Bernanke will not be reconfirmed.

In-trade, an online betting platform, now shows just a 68 percent chance the Fed Chairman will be confirmed, down from 95 percent just a few days back.



Several Republicans have already come out against him and some have moved to block his confirmation, forcing Senate leaders to secure a super-majority of 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to move the nomination.

Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., one of four Republicans to side with Bernanke in the Senate Banking Committee, has said that while he wants to support him and is carefully examining Bernanke's record, he reserves the right to vote against him.

"Senator Corker for voted Chairman Bernanke out of committee, and since that time he has had numerous conversations with Bernanke and Fed officials and has visited the Fed to review the AIG documents," Corker spokeswoman Laura Herzog told CNBC. "He will make his final decision before the floor vote occurs, but generally feels the same way he did the day of the committee vote."

Sunday, January 24, 2010

SUNDAY 24TH JAN 2010:

TACTIC: USED ON FRIDAY NITE BY US LIFT OPERATOR---"katek squeeze"

DOW FALL FOR WEEK 18TH JAN 2010 TO 22JAN 2010:4.1percent(INCLUSIVE OF FRIDAY NIGHT BIG DROP OF 2+PERCENT

HANGSENG FALL FOR SAME WEEK :4.3percent

STI DROP FOR WEEK:3PERCENT

so us lift operators strategy is to make the drop as similar as HK and STI as I TIOLD YOU ALL ALWAYS THESE THREE COUNTRIES GOT UNCANNY SIMILARITIES AT CRITICAL TIMES

strategy:collect at LAST SHORT TERM GUPPY MMA ON WEEKLY CHARTS--us lift operators make the SP500 break the last short term guppy mma on daily charts at 1106 and collect between 1091-1106 a 1.5percent range ON NEWS RELEASED BY THEM THAT BEN BERNANKE MAY NOT BE REAPPOINTED

BUT NEWS CAME OUT ON WEEKEND SATURDAY AFTER MARKET CLOSED ON FRIDAY NIGHT THAT OBABA AND SENIOR OFFICIALS SAY THAT ben LIKELY TO BE REAPPOINTED--to catch kateks dead cold on weekend--see how the shortists rush to cover back on monday morning...

I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF DOW FUT UP 50 TO 100 in asian morning session...

BE PREPARED FOR DOW TO RETEST 10.6K by end of this week, jan 29th 2010, major factor FOMC on 27th

Friday, January 22, 2010

2009 FOMC Meetings

DOW RALLY 200+POINTS ON JAN 28 2009
January 27-28 Statement Minutes: 493 KB PDF | HTML (Released Feb 18, 2009)

March 17-18 Statement Minutes: 265 KB PDF | HTML (Released Apr 8, 2009)
dow up a bit 90points

April 28-29 Statement Minutes: 344 KB PDF | HTML (Released May 20, 2009)
dow up 2+pc

June 23-24 Statement Minutes: 347 KB PDF | HTML (Released Jul 15, 2009)
dow went down

August 11-12 Statement Minutes: 260 KB PDF | HTML (Released Sep 2, 2009)
dow up 120 points

September 22-23 Statement Minutes: 263 KB PDF | HTML (Released Oct 14, 2009)
dow up then reverse down

November 3-4 Statement Minutes: 337 KB PDF | HTML (Released Nov 24, 2009)
dow went up then reverse down

December 15-16 Statement Minutes: 318 KB PDF | HTML (Released Jan 6, 2010)
dow went up then reverse down
2010 FOMC Meetings
January 26-27
March 16
April 27-28
June 22-23
August 10
September 21
November 2-3
December 14

from http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm






GOLDEN CHANCE TO HUAT BIG HAS COME AFTER MONTHS OF WAITING!!!HOW CAN I LET GO? FIVE CHARTS TO PROVE IT!!
ZACKS DEFINITION OF GOLDEN CHANCE TO HUAT BIG HAS COME!!PREPARE YOUR AMMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

By Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 20 — Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad today claimed the 9/11 attacks in the United States, that killed nearly 3,000, was staged as an excuse to “mount attacks on the Muslim world”, saying killing as an excuse for war is not new to the US. The former prime minister also argued that Israel was created to solve the “Jewish problem” in Europe, saying the Holocaust had failed as a final solution against the community.

“In September 2001, the World Trade Centre was attacked allegedly by terrorists. I am not sure now that Muslim terrorists carried out these attacks. There is strong evidence that the attacks were staged. If they can make Avatar, they can make anything,” said Dr Mahathir during his speech at the General Conference for the Support of Al-Quds here. Al-Quds is the Arabic name for Jerusalem.

“Killing innocent people to provide an excuse for war is not new to the US. But whether the real or staged 9/11 attacks have served the United States and Western countries well. They have an excuse to mount attacks on the Muslim world,” he added. Dr Mahathir also argued the creation of the Jewish state was decided after Europeans failed to massacre the community. “The Jews had always been a problem in European countries. They had to be confined to ghettoes and periodically massacred. But still they remained, they thrived and they held whole governments to ransom.

“Even after their massacre by the Nazis of Germany, they survived to continue to be a source of even greater problems for the world. The Holocaust failed as a final solution,” said the outspoken Malaysian leader who was noted for his anti-Western and anti-Zionist stand while in power for 22 years, until October 2003. Dr Mahathir added that it was easier for the European powers to set up a Jewish state in Palestine.

“Creating a state for them was thought to be a better solution. It could be if some European territory had been allocated to make a permanent ghetto for the Jews. But of course if this was done then the affected European state would rise in arms and kill all the Jews the way they had been doing before. So the debate was about creating an Israeli state in Uganda, Africa, or somewhere in Latin America or Palestine of course.

“It was so easy to decide on Palestine, a British mandated territory. Restrictions on the disposal of mandated land could be ignored. This is nothing new — reneging on solemnly given undertaking is endemic with Europeans,” he said. Dr Mahathir also accused democratic countries for being “hypocritical” and pointed out that the world is “partially civilised.”

“We live in a world that is only partially civilised. I say this because we still believe that the way to resolve conflicts between nations is to kill people in what is called war. The winner is the side which succeeds in killing the most number of people. Yet we vehemently declare that killing people is murder, a terrible crime worthy of the most severe punishment.

“We are being openly hypocritical. Mass killing is glorious but killing one man is a heinous crime,” he said in his speech. Dr Mahathir also expressed his disappointment in Barack Obama and said that the US president has failed. Obama celebrated his first year in office today.

“Well, I am a bit disappointed because so far none of his promises have been kept. He promised to get out from Afghanistan but he ended up sending more troops there instead. He promised to close down Guantanamo but he has not closed down Guantanamo. Even other things he has not been able to do.

“It is quite easy to promise during election time but you know there are forces in the United States which prevents the president from doing some things. One of the forces is the Jewish lobby, IPAC,” he said. Dr Mahathir had previously blamed the Jews for causing the Asian financial crisis.
HANGSENG FELL FROM 23099 TO 21002 FROM NOV 18 TO 27 2009..STI AT THAT TIME WAS IN A STRAIGHT LINE...I EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE UBTIL HSI REACH 20.5K TO 20.7K

















Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Goldman exec says firm gained from trading against clientsWed Jan 13, 2010 1:37am ESTRelated NewsPRESS DIGEST - New York Times business news - Jan 13

Fri, Nov 20 2009(Reuters) - An executive from Goldman Sachs Group Inc said the company in some cases profited by trading ahead of or against its own clients, the New York Times said on its website.

Thomas Mazarakis, who heads Goldman's fundamental strategies group, told select clients in an email that his unit often provided investment ideas that the firm had already traded on and the firm sometimes took the opposite approach, betting against particular instruments recommended by the group, the Times said.

"We may trade, and may have existing positions, based on trading ideas before we have discussed those trading ideas with you," the paper quoted Mazarakis as writing in the email.

The paper quoted Goldman spokesman Lucas van Praag as saying in a statement the company has been "providing this disclosure, which we think is best practice, for a number of years and there is nothing new in the disclosure you were sent."

A Goldman Sachs spokesman in Hong Kong could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60C17220100113?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=76

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

DJ Singapore''s GIC Recognises Big Loss In US Project - Report (2010/01/12 07:33AM)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--The Government of Singapore Investment Corp. has written down most of its US$675 million investment in a giant New York City apartment complex that was bought at the height of the property boom in the U.S., the Business Times reported without citing any source.

The joint owners of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village defaulted on their debts last Friday.

GIC had invested US$575 million in a so-called mezzanine loan backed by the property--a subordinated loan that sits between ordinary debt and equity--and US$100 million in an equity stake.

"GIC recognized the losses following the ruling by the New York Court of Appeals in October 2009 which precipitated the default," a GIC spokesman was quoted as saying.



Newspaper Web site:

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg



-By Singapore Bureau; Dow Jones Newswires; 65-6415-4150; djnews.singapore.bureau@dowjones.com



Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today''s most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=afTsE3CHnyz8k7x0DZju%2Fw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.




(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 11, 2010 18:33 ET (23:33 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2010 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
United confirm plan to raise £500m through bonds
By Harry Harris and Soccernet staff

January 11, 2010
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Manchester United confirmed on Monday they will look to raise £500 million through bonds to restructure their debts.


GettyImages

Cristiano Ronaldo sale enabled United to turn a profit

The Premier League champions have been struggling under interest payments due on the debts which the Glazers ran up when borrowing in order to purchase the club. In the year up to June 30, 2009, they had to pay out £41.9 million in interest payments.

Although the club did record a pre-tax profit of £48.2 million, that figure includes the £80 million raised from the sale of Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid. Without the sale of Ronaldo, the Red Devils would have been reporting a loss of £31.8 million. Turnover was up in the financial year, from £80.4 million in 2008 to £91.3 million.

The bond will be used to repay the "senior secured notes". It was thought that the Glazers would be looking to finance the £175 million worth of payment-in-kind notes that are currently attracting 14.25% interest. However, this is considered personal debt and will not be refinanced through bonds.

"Manchester United today announced that it will be seeking to raise approximately £500 million aggregate principal amount from an offering of senior secured notes due 2017,'' said a United statement. "The notes, whose proceeds will be used to refinance existing debt secured against the club, will be issued by MU Finance plc.''

But the Glazers will not be selling the club and intend to use the money saved from restructuring the debt to ensure significant money is available to Sir Alex Ferguson to spend in the transfer market.

ESPN Soccernet has been assured that the bond is not a prelude to a sale or in any way a manouvre to attract a buyer. The bond should attract institutions and City investors which will enable the club to repay at a stable and affordable rate of interest.

However, ESPNsoccernet has been informed by City experts, that this is by no means an attempt to find a new owner, or to sell the club, that is definitely not on the agenda.

Despite the world being in recession, Manchester United are the most profitable club in the world at a time when clubs like Manchester City and Chelsea are recording massive losses. But fans remain concerned about the bottom line without the Ronaldo cash.

The Glazers message is clear - none of the clubs figures, nor their desire to reshape their loans of £509 million impacts on manager Sir Alex Fergusons ability to reinvest in the transfer market So far Sir Alex has stated it is because he cannot find the players of the right quality and price, rather than it being a question of not having the money.

--its better to be a soccer player than an owner..that is why i stay clear football clubs shares

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Current status of Mercator's ships.

Chaitali Prem is one of Mercator's new post-panamax vessel chartered in Sept 09. It is deployed to Refined Success a subsidiary of Cosco Group as part of a 3 year contract with a daily rate of US$39,500. It is now off the coast of South Africa. Its plying the Brazil - China iron ore route

http://aprs.fi/?call=247274800

Chanchal Prem is one of Mercator's new post-panamax vessel chartered in Oct 09. It is off the coast of Brazil. I presume its plying the Brazil - China iron ore route

http://aprs.fi/?call=538003661

Garima Prem is a gearless panamax owned by MLS. Currently contracted to Arcelor Mittal Group till Aug 2010 at US$60k/day. It is currently in USA near Virginia.

http://aprs.fi/?call=565554000&mt=m&z=2&timerange=3600

Garv Prem is an owned gearless Panamax. It is close to Singapore with a voyage destination to India. I am assuming that it is plying the Australia/Indonesia - India coal route.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 40:07%20AM

Prem Veena is an owned Gearless Kamsarmax. It departed from Australia recently. Seems to be heading towards China. Could be plying the China - Australia coal route.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 14:23%20PM

Prem Aparna is an owned geared Panamax. Currently off the coast of Russia in the Black Sea. Was travelling there from Turkey. Not too sure which route its playing. Could be on spot charter for one of the supply chain manager firms.

http://aprs.fi/?call=565272000

Prem Vidya is an owned geared Kamsarmax. Its now in Singapore. It was in China 2 weeks ago.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 06:44%20PM

Prem Varsha is an owned Geared Kamsarmax. It is now in the Gulf of Mexico near New Orleans

http://aprs.fi/?call=565353000

Gaurav Prem is an owned gearless panamax. It is near India.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 05:16%20PM

Kesari Prem is an owned geared panamax. It is off the coast of Malaysia and it is heading towards an Indian port.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 15:34%20AM

Kanak Prem is a geared panamax. Not too much info. Left Singapore earlier this month.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 28:09%20PM

Kalpana Prem is an owned geared panamax. It is heading towards the Suez.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 12:56%20AM

Prem Putil is an owned VLOC. It is deployed to Vale for a 14 year contract to transport iron ore from Brazil to China. Its close to Madagascar heading towards Brazil.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/defaul ... 29:45%20PM

The Board of Directors of Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that the Company will be releasing its unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended 31 December 2009 on Thursday, 21st January 2010. The results will also be available on the Company's website at www.mllsg.com

another article:

The art of management

Pramoud Rao
Posted: Sunday, Jan 10, 2010 at 1907 hrs IST

“That some achieve great success, is proof to all that others can achieve it as well.”—Abraham Lincoln

Being in the business of protecting lives and other precious objects, keen observation is to me as spots to a leopard. I have been observing the growth of Mercator Lines for quite some time now. Lincoln’s quote above truly embodies what I feel whenever I see or read about Mercator’s achievements.

Incorporated in 1983, Mercator Lines is the second largest private sector shipping company in India in terms of tonnage. Since its inception, the company has overcome conventional barriers of the shipping industry and has succeeded in providing the most optimal shipping solutions.

From a traditional tanker company Mercator has diversified interests in transportation, dredging, oil and gas, ship management services, marine logistics and offshore services. It has also made its presence global by setting subsidiaries in Singapore, Mozambique and Indonesia. All this is due to one man’s vision and keen insight—HK Mittal. Aged 60 years, Mittal, Executive Chairman of the company, acquired Mercator in 1988. An enterprising individual, Mittal has been able to bring transparency and professionalism in a traditional industry like shipping. Living up to opportunities around him and making the most of his resources, he has been able to create the fastest-growing shipping company of today (From Rs 65 lakh in 1988, the firm’s revenue increased to Rs 2,200 crore in the year ended March 31, 2009).

Close observations indicate that the company has been able to transform barriers into opportunities for further growth. Considering the cyclical nature of the global shipping industry, the company steered its way by diversifying into various businesses, oil and natural gas exploration being one of them. Thus today, with Western economies emerging from recession, Mercator is expected to benefit from a possible upturn in the global demand for exploring and transporting crude oil and other products.

The business model of Mercator Lines is simple—aggressively grab every opportunity, thereby derisking the business, while locking in its vessels for long-term contracts to mitigate the volatility of freight rates. A strategy that Mittal led his team to believe in and execute successfully, setting a proud example for India Inc as a whole.

One of Mercators core value is “honouring commitment towards stakeholders”. Truly, living up to this, the company has grown from strength to strength over the last 25 years, expanding both horizontally and vertically, thereby building immense shareholder value.

A perfect example of rags to riches, Mercator has grown from a moderate barge operator to India’s second largest private sector company with six solid verticals.

Mercator’s success story can also be attributed to it mastering the art of managing people. It has laid great emphasis on human capital development, talent management and retention. It has successfully inculcated within each employee the ‘Mercatorian’ spirit of innovation. Testimony to this is the gamut awards one not only individually by Mittal, but also by the company both in India and abroad. My conclusion lies in HK Mittal’s humble words, “And this is just the beginning.”.

- The Financial Express

Monday, December 21, 2009

My short summary on Mercator Lines (Singapore)

from forummer in channelnewsasia

Mercator Lines Singapore Ltd (MLS) is one of the largest fleet owners in the Indian dry bulk shipping market. It has a total of 14 ships in its fleet of which 11 are owned by the company. Mercator deals with the transport of iron ore and coal between China, Australia and India. It recently won a Vale contract to transport iron ore from Brazil to China using its new VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier). Most of its clients are repeat blue chips customers like the Tata Group, Ancelor Mittal Steel group, Cosco etc.

Mercator Group History

Mercator LS is a listed subsidiary of Mercator LL India (an Indian company) which offers full logistics solutions to their customers from load port to the point of usage in India. MLS provides support to the Mercator Group by transporting bulk commodities via sea transportation. Mercator LL India owns over 70% of MLS. A strong parent will benefit a young company such as MLS as it allows her to tap into the managerial experience of her parent or gain financial support through the issue of convertible bonds or rights to her parent in order to acquire more ships. Moreover, most of MLS blue chips Indian clients favour it due to its affiliation with Mercator India which is considered to be a large domestic Indian player. This is further possible due a non-competition pact between the 2 entities.

MLS Fleet

MLS's fleet size is 14 vessels - 11 owned and 3 chartered ships. One more chartered ship will be delivered next year for a 10 year charter. This will bring the fleet size to 15 vessels by 2010. MLS Fleet consist of 7 gearless vessels, 1 VLOC and 7 geared vessels. 'Geared Vessels' have on-board cranes, which facilitate loading and unloading in undeveloped ports, such as those in India and Indonesia. These vessels gives Mercator an edge over its competitors since it has one of the largest geared fleet in the region and most of its clients (Indonesia and India) ports do not have much modern facilities such as cranes. Its new VLOC will ply the Brazil-China route for the next 14 years as part of MLS's recent contract with Vale. MLS fleet is very young and modern since the average age of its owned fleet is merely 6 years. MLS fleet capacity is 1.29mil DWT (excluding the incoming vessel next year). This makes it the second largest dry bulk shipper listed here just behind STX PO.

MLS Operation Style

It is focused on India and other high growth markets, such as China. They have established a strong market presence in the transportation of coal into India having rapidly grown its fleet of 14 vessels hence enabling it to get repeat business from reputable customers such as Tata Power, Cosco, Mittal etc. Its recent contract win from Vale shows that it has truly matured from toddler to a matured adolescent; allowing it to venture to new growth markets and attracting new blue chip clients.

MLS main operations - i) transport ores from Brazil to China using its VLOC, ii) transport of coal from Australia and Indonesia to India thermal plants, iii) transport of iron ores from India to China.

In order to fulfill their operations, MLS often hedge their exposure to the spot markets by committing themselves to long term contracts with their clients. Currently MLS Management has limited their exposure to spot markets by securing long term charters for 70% of their fleet capacity. This gives the MLS a predictable source of cash flow while steering clear of the volatility of the BDI and freight rates. Hence despite a difficult freight rate environment, fleet utilization maintained above 99%. This is unlike Courage Marine which focuses solely on short term charters whereby its utilization rate is merely 70%. This is one of the reasons why MLS remains profitable this year unlike spot charters such as Courage Marine or STX PO.

MLS Long Term Charter -

a) Tata Power -> $320mil, 3-4 geared vessels to transport 3.2m tons of coal from Indonesia, June 08 - May 12.

b) Vale -> Transportation of iron ore from Brazil to China via VLOC, 14 year from May 09 - May 23, $209mil approx

c) Cosco -> Sept 09 - Aug 12, 1 vessel, $39.5K/day

d) Arcelor Mittal -> Sept 08 - Aug 10, 1 vessel, $60K/day

e) European Charter -> Jul 09 - Jun 10, 1 vessel, $15.19K/day

The first 3 contracts alone will guarantee a combined revenue of over $110mil for 2010 and 2011. This is over 60% of FY 2009 revenue. Hence, despite the volatility of the BDI, MLS is well prepared to remain profitable and well-capitalised due to her Management usage of long term charters. This also illustrates the Management desire for 70% of her revenues to be derived from long-term charters.

It must be noted that 2 of the charters expire next year. If the company is unable to get an extension from Mittal or a new contract from a different company, it will place a burden on MLS finances.

Mercator Financial Highlights

Mercator Financial Year ends at March 31. We are now in 3Q 2010 in MLS Financial Calendar.

From 2006 to 2009, Mercator has recorded excellent growths of revenue, net profits, margins and equity. Revenue shot up 3 fold while net profit was up a whooping 15 fold from 4 mil to over 75mil. This is evident in the rise of net margins from 8% to 40% in 2009. This is due to a decrease in freight chargers as initially MLS only chartered their ship. Only in 2008, did MLS number of owned ships outweight its chartered ships (7 to 5). The Management exercise of its option to purchase one of the chartered ships (Ocean Senang) and its purchase of new ships eventually led to a respectable 11 owned ships and 3 charted ships today. MLS has stabilised its ROE at the 20% level for the past 2 years.

In its 1H 10, its revenues has dipped 34% and net profits has plunged by 59% while margins are at 28% levels. The decrease in revenue is largely due to decline in spot market day rates and renewal of long term contracts at rates lower than the previous rates. Due to the above, Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rate per vessel per day for the half year ended September 30,2009 decreased to US$28,187 as compared to a TCE rate per day per vessel of US$48,327 for the corresponding half year in the previous year representing a decrease of 42%.

On the bright side, the total number of vessel operating days for the half year ended September 30, 2009 was 2,218 days compared with 2,089 days for the half year ended September 30, 2008. Moreover, its vessel hire charges for the half year ended September 30, 2009 decreased by 58% to US$7.1 million as compared to US$16.7 million for the half year ended September 30, 2008. This is due to a drop in hiring rates from shipping chartering companies.

After MLS IPO, its equity was 259 mil in 2008. It has managed to increase its equity to over 350mil in Sept 09. However liquidity and credit risk might be an issue. Its net current assets is negative for the first time in its history accompanied by a little over 14mil cash. Its total debts is 257mil (bank loans plus 13mil convertible bonds) of which 34mil are due this year. Its net debt to equity ratio is 0.69 slightly up from the previous year of 0.67. While its gross debt levels has been dropping over the past 2 years from 311 to 257 mil in Sept 09 due to its repayments, its net debt levels are rising. This is the result of MLS utilizing its cash to acquire more vessels.

MLS has a debt principal repayment commitment (excluding the CB) as follows-

FY 2010 - 19.4 mil
FY 2011 - 30.7 mil
FY 2012 - 25.7 mil
FY 2013 - 24.3 mil
FY 2015 - 23.6 mil

This would total up to over $124 mil. I am confident that MLS is able to meet its commitments as it commands high positive operating cashflow. For FY 08 and 09, its operating cashflow exceeded $100mil while 1H 10 recorded a cash inflow of $38mil. Since MLS has no more vessel acquisition plans for now, I believe most of operating cashflow will be diverted to debt repayments and other payables.

Share Price:

Its current share price is 30.5 SGD cents. Its annualised EPS for 2010 is USD 3.2 cents with a NAV of 28 USD cents. This means that it is trading at a PE of 6.9 and P/B of 0.79 with an annualised ROE of 11%. Considering that its fellow dry bulk counters (STX PO and Courage Marine) are in the red now, we cannot compare their PE ratios. STX PO P/B is 0.98 and Courage Marine P/B is 1.30. Since Mercator is profitable due to its long term charters, there is hardly any reason why it should be trading at such a valuation!

Outlook:

While the hey-days on Late 07- Mid 08 will not return for a long time, I do forsee a stable BDI between 3000-5000 levels for the next few years. There are 2 factors which affect the dry bulk industry - Supply of Ships and Demand of Commodities.

Demand - Emerging countries such as China and India require large amount of coal for their energy due to increased consumption from their growing population. Indian Goal 2012 seeks to have 10 000MW of energy from coal based plants. Current levels are only 5700MW hence there will be greater demands for coal from Australia and Indonesia. The real estate and property market in China is recovering rapidly with a 19% yoy growth in Aug. Floor space under construction has increased by over 22% yoy. This is due to greater housing demand from the Chinese population which will only grow stronger as they become more affluent and numbers increased. The property sector accounts for one-third of Chinese steel consumption so the demand for iron ore is sustainable in the long term. Hence the pace of contraction in the steel industry has narrowed sharply from almost 40% down to only 4.6% lower. India and Brazil are one of the largest exporters of iron ore to China. Since MLS has active dealings with both sides, it will benefit greatly from the demand boom.

Supply - Substantial number of ships have been cancelled/delayed or scrapped recently. As a result only around 40% of the 2009 orderbook was eventually delivered. Since this is expected to carry on in 2010, it will reduce the impact of vessel over-capacity in the near term. However the annual fleet growth will still be around 6%. Since the current BDI level already reflects this impact, I do not foresee any massive and prolonged drop in the current BDI level. This is one of the major risk in investing in Mercator – volatile spot rates.

Conclusion:

India and China needs coal to increase the power output for the increasing population and growing industries. Iron ore is needed to make steel to build up their economic infrastructure - ports, railways, bridges, roads and social infrastructures - houses and offices. In order to meet their demand, they need to utilize dry bulk carriers to transport the raw materials over from the supply zones like Indonesia and Australia. This is where Mercator comes in and this is why Mercator is still and will be profitable!

THE ONLY PROFITABLE SHIPPING COMPANY IN SGX