17th october-LINKING BDI AND CHINA TOGETHER TELLS ME AND YOU ALL A VERY REVEALING STORY!!

this is the bdi chart from 1985-2011,i download from other websites.AS YOU CAN SEE BDI HAS A CLOSE CORRELATION WITH CHINA.
THE BDI SURGE FROM 2005 ONWARDS WAS 6X,600% FROM 2000 TO NEAR 12000,THAT WAS EQUAL TO SHANGHAI SURGE FROM 1000POINTS IN 2005 JUNE TO 6200 IN 2007,ALSO 600%.SHANGHAI NOW IS AT 2000,NOT 1000,HENCE BDI AT 981 IS RIDICULOUSLY UNDERVALUED!!!!the true bdi value when shanghai at 2000 points now should be around 4000points.

in summary:

1.SOMETIMES,BDI IS A FORWARD INDICATOR,RALLIED 1ST IN 2001 T0 2005,and AHEAD OF SHANGHAI COMPOSITE,FROM 1000 TO 5000,DESPITE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE DROPPING,THEN BACK DOWN TO 2000 TO SET THE "LAUNCHING BASE" TO TALLY WITH SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 1000 TO 6000POINT SURGE.
STAGES
1)Shanghai composite 1994-2001 surge from 325 to 2245 VS BDI START DROP IN 1995 TO 2001,2500 TO ARD 1000.

2)SHANGHAI COMPOSITE THEN STARTED TO DROP FROM 2001 TO 2005,REFLECTING BDI DROP FROM 1995 TO 2001,2200 POINTS TO 1000POINTS ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO BDI DROP FROM 2500POINTS TO 1000POINTS.
BUT BDI DURING THIS PERIOD SURGED FROM 1000 TO 5000,THEN BACK DOWN TO 2000.

3)SOMETIMES IT IS IN TANDEM WITH SHANGHAI 1000-6000+,BDI 2000-NEAR 12000 FROM 2005 TO 2007.

in conclusion,BDI IS DEFINITELY A CHINA PLAY BUT SOMETIMES IT RUNS AHEAD OF CHINA,SOMETIMES IT IS IN TANDEM WITH CHINA.

17th october 2012-OH MY GOD!! BDI SURGE LIKE FUCK AGAIN!! YESTERDAY +4.2%.ONE MONTH AND 5 DAYS +50%!!!!WHAT THE FUCK?!!!

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

981.00 +40.00 +4.25%

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As of 08:11:58 ET on 10/16/2012.

 

661 TO 981 AND COUNTING IN ONE MONTH AND 5 DAYS

17th october 2012-MY 11TH OCTOBER POST WAS SO SO TRUE!!BUT MUST WAIT TILL FRIDAY TO CONFIRM

MY 11TH OCTOBER 2012 POST-


3)"usa to have shallow retracement to 1422-1437 range in 2-4 weeks"
IN THE END,usa hit 1437 in the 2nd week,this week is the 4th week,revisit 1437,IF THIS WEEK DOES NOT REBOND UP STRONGLY TO CLOSE NEAR 1474 ON FRIDAY,THEN NEXT WEEK,5TH WEEK OF RETRACEMENT,SP500 WILL HIT 1422 AND REBOUND UP STRONGLY"

did you see although SP500 DID NOT HIT 1422 THIS MONDAY,IT DID HIT 1427,VERY NEAR 1422 AND REBOUNDED STRONGLY????????

HOW TO CONFIRM THIS WEEK IS THE 1ST WEEK OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS OF USA UPTREND??
MUST WAIT TILL THIS FRIDAY NIGHT IN SP500-SP500 MUST,I MEAN MUST END THIS WEEK WITH A WEEKLY GAIN OF >+2% WEEKLY GAINS,END NEAR 1474-THIS IS THE SIGNAL OF THE 1ST WEEK OF THE 9TH.

THIS IS THE SP500 ALGORITHM.I MAJOR IN MATHEMATICS AND ECONOMICS SO I LOVE TO SPOT REPEATED ALGORITHMS.

THANK YOU
YOURS SINCERELY
SHARESWIZARD
 

17th oct 2012-SO OBVIOUS BDI HAS HIT FINAL BOTTOM.compare between many drybulk stocks,YOU WILL SEE MANY HIT DOUBLE BOTTOM WITH 2009 WHEN SOME LOUSIER ONES WENT EVEN LOWER THAN 2009-THIS IS SHARESWIZARD MOST IMPORTANT DIVERGENCE SIGNAL OF FINAL BOTTOM/TOP!!

BELOW ARTICLE WAS CUT AND PASTE FROM-http://seekingalpha.com/article/926511-how-to-play-a-bottom-in-drybulk-stocks?source=cnbc

 

How To Play A Bottom In Drybulk Stocks

October 16, 2012 by: Qineqt | includes: BALT, DRYS, DSX, FREE, GNK, PRGN

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Business relationship disclosure: The article has been written by Qineqt's Industrial Analyst. Qineqt is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). Qineqt has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The Baltic Drybulk Index has surged 40% in the last 30 days. The index (663 points) was near its 52- week high of 647 points, when a rise in demand for Capes led to a rise in the BDI. The recent increase in marine transportation of coal is also sending bullish signals to the market. What needs to be decided is if the rise in rates is an indication of a complete revival in demand or just a temporary rise because of the approval of infrastructure projects in China, the largest consumer of iron ore in the world.
BDI components:
As mentioned in our earlier articles, BDI is formed of weighted averages of charter rates of Capesizes; Handymax, Supramax and Panamaxes. Each vessel size has its own index (BCI, BHSI, BSI and BPI). These averages then make up the BDI. The following shows the daily trip charter rates for different vessels:

Following shows the change in the indices on 15th October.

Indices	Index value	Change
Handysize	6536	+1
Capesize	11074	+703
Panamax	6937	+221
Supramax	8110	-82

The iron ore spot prices have increased by 30% since early September. The stock piles are down and the firms are importing more in order to replenish the stocks. According to a news agency in Xinhua, steel prices in China are likely to rebound as the State has approved $156 billion worth of infrastructure spending. 29 capesize vessels in the third week of September were used to haul iron ore to China, the largest weekly volume since March.
The index for Panamax has also risen. Panamax are used to transport coal. The demand has strengthened after the coal inventories at the Chinese power stations declined. A Panamax normally carries 60,000 tons of coal. Demand gained after the stock of coal at port of Qinhuangdao reached 5.5 million tons, 1.5 million tons short of the government target of 7 million tons. Again, the same question needs to be answered, how much of the demand is temporary? In an earlier article, we mentioned that China imports excess coal in the third and fourth quarters as freezing temperatures disrupt the activity at ports for the next three months. Having said that, it is also important to remember that China is planning to increase its electricity generation in the country, therefore, the hike in demand may not be temporary after all.
Conclusion:

The table above shows the number of Capesize and Panamax that each company has in its fleet. Where DryShips (DRYS) and Diana Shipping (DSX) have the larger number of Panamaxes and Capesizes, Genco Shipping (GNK) and Paragon Shipping (PRGN) also have exposure to coal.
All these stocks are expected to benefit from the rise in coal and steel activity. The bulkers that trade purely on BDI will be the major beneficiary from the surge in BDI. Baltic Trading (BALT) and FreeSeas (FREE) are the bulkers that are a pure play on BDI. Also, most of DRYS' Panamax fleet is on spot charters. However, in the long-run, all bulkers will benefit in case the rise in BDI is sustained.

16th october 2012-SINGAPOREANS ARE CASH POOR PART2(EXTRA DISPOSABLE INCOME TO SPEND ON STOCKS AFTER PAYING COE,IPAD)HKEX TURNOVER 7X SGX!!IS HK POPULATION 7X OF SINGAPORE???WORSE IS THAT SGX HAS T+5 TO SETTLE,YET HKIS MUCH LESSER,YET THE MARKET TURNOVER VOLUME IS SO WIDE DIFFERENT!!!

LET US COMPARE HKEX TURNOVER VALUE WITH SGX ON 16TH OCTOBER 2012-OTHER DAYS ARE APPROX SAME AS TODAY NO BIG NEWS FROM HONGKONG SIDE-HKEX IS FLATTISH,SO IS STI.THIS IS THE HALF DAY MARKET TURNOVER VOLUME OF HKEX VERSUS SGX.SGX SETTLEMENT IS T+5,COMPARED TO HKEX T+2,YET HKEX DAILY TURNOVER VOLUME TROUNCED SGX BY 7X?????IF SGX DARE TO REDUCE TO T+2,I THINK THE FULL DAY VOLUME WILL BE LIKE THE HALF DAY VOLUME NOW.

BUT IN TERMS OF TECH SAVVY AND LATEST PRODUCTS,SINGAPORE WIN HONGKONG!!

Market Turnover 16/10/2012

Main Board HK$25,006.07 Mil GEM HK$77.52 Mil HSI Futures 30,653 Contracts VERSUS     Singapore Stock Market Tuesday Monday *ST Index 3,053.16 +10.11 3,043.05 +1.3 Volume: 681.8M 1,203.3M Value: $584.9M $944.6M Gainers/Losers: 248/101 218/195

 

15th October 2012-haha expected again!ipo in good times,push baby for retards to carry and delist in bad times,aka low prices!!wahahaha!!

PUSH/SELL TO YOU AT 54CENTS SYNEAR FOOD: Bad indigestion for long-term shareholders!

Written by Leong Chan Teik

Tuesday, 24 January 2012 07:00

Synear's products include glutinous sweet dumpling products. Photo: Company IF A STOCK went IPO at 54 cents -- as Synear Food did - and recently traded at 13 cents, it’s a nasty fall indeed. In the case of Synear Food, it’s been a nightmare many times over for investors who bought the stock when it was a market darling after its IPO in Aug 2006. The stock had climbed to, and stabilised, above $1.50 throughout 2007. After spiking up to nearly $2.50 in Oct 2007, it crashed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. When the market recovered in 2009, somehow the pieces of Synear never quite came together again. As a result, Synear is among the worst performing S-chips (or non-S-chips) still around today - ie, if we exclude those that have been suspended for accounting issues. In absolute dollar terms, Synear has lost over S$3 billion in stock value in the last 4-5 years. That's massive value destruction indeed. It is hard to imagine Synear as being one of China's largest producers of frozen food, including sweet and meat dumplings. And it was an official supplier to the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics? In fact, the Synear brand has been voted as one of "China's Top 500 Most Valuable Brands" for seven consecutive years from 2004 to 2010.(my comments--can news be trusted?????????) What wonderful accolades -- but where are the glorious profits for investors? The chart for its stock price says it all – the flattish line resembles the extremely dire condition of a hospitalized patient on a life-support machine..... BUY BACK FROM YOU AT 18.6C-- Synear Food directors say yes to delisting offer Mainboard-listed Synear Food Holdings announced on Monday that its directors have approved an offeror's proposal to buy over the quick-freeze food company at S$0.186 per share and delist it on the SGX.

14th october 2012-wow,just now in my previous post,i said bdi is about 1.5x bdi stocks rate-let us see china cosco hk stockcode 1919 oct2007 peak AGREES TO MY MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF BDI AND BDI STOCKS RELATIONSHIP!

1919.hk peaked at around 40+hkd,OCTOBER 2007 now it is only worth 3+ hkd.,mercator listed in singapore only in the week of 10th december 2007 at 76cents,CHINA COSCO 1919 HAD ALREADY PLUNGED and was trading at only 27+ hkd.

from around 27+ hkd to 40+ hkd is a rise of around 50%,which means that IF MERCATOR LINES was listed before the stockmarket peak in oct2007,mercator share price will be 50% higher than the 76c IPO price,GIVING MY EARLIER POST OF BDI AT 11000,MERCATOR WILL BE Around S$1.20,a around 50% increase from 76c

I NEVER EXPECTED MY FORMULATION TO BE SO PRECISE!!HENCE STOCKMARKET SHAREPRICES ARE ALL CONTROLLED BY AN ALGORITHM!

DESPITE DIFFERENT COMPANIES HAVING DIFFERENT FUNDAMENTALS,AT THE END OF THE DAY,SAME INDUSTRY STOCKPRICES BEHAVED THE SAME WAY IRREGARDLESS OF FUNDAMENTALS.CHOOSING GOOD FUNDAMENTALS COMPANY WILL ONLY ENSURE YOU PEACE OF MIND (of bankruptcy,collapse)WHEN INVESTING AND BEING THE FIRST TO BE "FRIED UP" BUT SHARE PRICES BEHAVE ROUGHLY THE SAME(unless there is takeover,etc)!!

JUST LOOK AT CHINA COSCO AND MERCATOR,THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE AN EXACT REPLICA!!

DIFFERENT COMPANIES,DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF LISTING,DIFFERENT COUNTRIES OF OPERATION,DIFFERENT FUNDAMENTALS,BUT SAME CHARTS!!AMAZING!

LET ME DO THE HONOURS OF UNRAVELLING SIMILAR POINTS IN THE CHARTS OD MERCATOR SINGAPORE AND CHINA COSCO
mercator 18c = china cosco 5hkd
mercator 20c resistance= china cosco 5.5 hkd
mercator 25c resistance=china cosco 8 hkd
mercator 44.5 resistance=china cosco 13hkd

13th october 2012-stockmarket loves "old friends"

what do i mean by "old friends"?in technical language it means double tops or double bottoms or triple tops or triple bottoms.

mercator lines is a cyclical industry company.

march-june2009,for example bdi around +600% from 663 to 4100,mercator lines +400% from 11c to my 44.5c dumped in june2009.-bdi rise 1.5x mercator stock price rise.

applying this ratio again,660 to 11700 peak in 2008,it is about  1700%,mercator rise if it obeys the 1.5x rule,it will be around 11x from 11c-S$1.20

bdi may or may not revisit the highest point due to fundamental reasons BUT i am sure it will revisit the 4661 set in november 2009 BEFORE THE NEXT CRISES.that will mean mercator lines will return back to the 44.5c AT LEAST before the NEXT CRISES COMES IN 2015-2017.

TIME IS RUNNING OUT.NEXT YEAR WILL BE 2013.STOCKMARKET ALWAYS SURGE TO "OLD FRIENDS" PRICES BEFORE THE NEXT CRISES COMETH.THERE MUST BE OVER JUBILATION BEFORE IMMENSE PAIN COMES AGAIN.

THERE MUST BE A "DECENT" ECONOMIC RECOVERY ENGINEERED OUT BY THE FOMC BEFORE FOMC COULD START INCREASING INTEREST RATES.CYCLICAL STOCKS WILL BE THE 1ST TO PROFIT WHEN THE ECONOMY RECOVERS.

MERCATOR LINE 25C IS AN IMPORTANT SUPPORT THAT BREAKS DOWN AND NOW IT BECOMES AN IMPORTANT RESISTANCE.MERCATOR LINES HAS TO SOMEHOW,SOME"WHEN" REVISIT THIS 25C VERY SOON AS TIME IS RUNNING OUT BEFORE THE NEXT CRISIS.25CENTS IS THE 1ST RESISTANCE,HENCE IT WOULD NOT BE THE END OF THE ROAD OF UPTREND FOR MERCATOR LINES.THE 2ND RESISTANCE OF COURSE WILL BE THE 38C-44.5C RANGE.

mercator lines is one of the better companies in the worst industry.it ain't a super condemned companies like sunmoon,carriernet,magnus energy whose stockprices are like vampire,only being fried up NEAR THE FINAL BULL RUN.mercator lines IS A CYCLICAL STOCK.please understand the difference.MERCATOR IS LIKE A VAMPIRE STOCK NOW BECAUSE OF THE BDI STAGNANCY.

BDI HAS ALREADY STARTED TO SURGE 40% IN ONE MONTH,SEPT 12 2012 TO OCT 12 2012.

---said on 13th october 2012

13th october 2012-BDI IS UP ANOTHER WHOPPING 2.55%-40% RISE IN ONE MONTH!

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

926.00 +23.00 +2.55%

 

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As of 08:17:05 ET on 10/12/2012

 

WHAT A HUGE JUMP FROM SEPT 12 2012 VALUE 661 TO OCT 12 2012 VALUE 926

 

+40% IN ONE MONTH!!

12th october 2012-ANOTHER DAY OF BDI ROCKET!bdi +3.2%!!

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

903.00 +28.00 +3.20%

 

 

As of 08:19:52 ET on 10/11/2012.

11th oct 2012-REMEMBER my months ago posted beautiful hangseng prediction with sp500 3rd hump ending-I PREDICT BY APR 2013-HANGSENG WILL HIT 24,25K- 27.5K,months later hsi at 21K

11th october 2012-i recollect the predictions i made in my blog

1)in august &sept 2012 i said-"hangseng to outperform sti and sp500 very soon.at 19k hangseng there is a 10% arbitrage chance."

IN THE END-VERY SOON,SURE ENOUGH HANGSENG RECOVERED ALL THE 10%.NOW IT IS AT 21K.

EVEN WHEN SHANGHAI TODAY -0.8%,USA LAST NIGHT -0.6%.HANGSENG IS "STRONG" SIMPLY BECAUSE OF RECOVERING "LOST GROUND"-LOOK AT MY BELOW POST OF "FIBO RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 3 BROTHERS"

Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

HSCEI:IND

10,231.20 +190.09 +1.89%

2)"usa to have a shallow retracement AFTER HITTING 1460-1480 range."
IN THE END THE MAX OF THE 8TH 10+WEEKS UP WAS 1474.

3)"usa to have shallow retracement to 1422-1437 range in 2-4 weeks"
IN THE END,usa hit 1437 in the 2nd week,this week is the 4th week,revisit 1437,IF THIS WEEK DOES NOT REBOND UP STRONGLY TO CLOSE NEAR 1474 ON FRIDAY,THEN NEXT WEEK,5TH WEEK OF RETRACEMENT,SP500 WILL HIT 1422 AND REBOUND UP STRONGLY

4)i criticise singaporeans' meaningless selling of mercator last friday-10lots at 11.3 when clearly BDI +5.89% on friday morning.RETAIL PLAYERS SO HARD UP FOR S$1,000? THAT THEY MUST ANYHOW THROW AT THE BID SIDE?
IN THE END,JUST 4DAYS LATER,MERCATOR LINES REBOUNDED UP STRONGLY TO 12C,TOTAL DAILY VOLUME 500LOTS!!!!

Result for : [ WatchList ]

Records : [ 3 ]

As at 11-10-2012 5:04 PM

	Page [ 1 ]
Counter Name SIP Cde Rmk Last Chg % Vol BVol Buy Sell SVol Open High Low Value Sector ▲ Mercator EE6 0.120 +0.004 +3.448 500 10 0.119 0.120 69 0.116 0.120 0.116 58,322 TSC

10TH OCTOBER 2012-REMEMBER MY 19TH SEPT POST AND WEEKS EARLIER SMS TO MY FRIENDS???did not it come true now?

19th sept 2012-WEEKS BEFORE,I smsed my friends about hangseng outperforming sp500 and sti in this leg up-HOW DO I KNOW?

let us recall the mysterious relationship of the 3 brothers' respect to fibonnaccis

hsi was 2 fibos below sp500's( >78.6%)fibo at march 2012
sti(>61.8%)was 1 fibo below sp500's fibo at march 2012.

so hangseng at 19k was a SUPER GREAT ARBITRAGE OPPORTUNITY AS IT DOES NOT MAKE SENSE,AN OVERDUE RALLY IS ON THE WAY TILL IT BRINGS HANGSENG TO > 21300(>50%) by year end.

THIS "STRENGTH" in the hangseng will only bring hangseng to 22K-22.5K.UNLESS CHINA BREAKS OUT OF 3+ YEARS BUMP RUN FORMATION,HANGSENG WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERPERFORM.

I AM WAITING TO SEE CHINA BREAK OUT...if china sse hit 2700,then hangseng will go up to 24K,the 61.8% fibo(same time when usa sp500 hit the fibo 2 levels higher,maintain the same relationship of hangseng being 2 fibos lower than sp500's fibo)

if china sse breaks out of the bumprun to 3.4k,then hsi will surge to 27.5k,the same time when sp500 hit same 100% fibo 1570,CUTTING THE DIFFERENCE TO HANGSENG BEING 1 FIBO LOWER THAN SP500'S FIBO

HSI 22K 1ST RESISTANCE,SAME TIME HIT WHEN SSE HIT 2400

HSI 24K 2ND RESISTANCE,SAME TIME HIT WHEN SSE HIT 2700,BREAKOUT POINT

HSI 27.5K,SAME TIME HIT WHEN SSE HIT 3400

HANGSENG ALL DEPENDS ON CHINA TO "COOPERATE" WITH USA UPTREND

 

--19th sept 2012 posted AND smsed to my friends this same msg in august 2012

10th october 2012-look at my 27th sept 2012 post-HANGSENG IS SUPERMAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY

SEPT 27 2012 POST:

"I TOLD YOU ALL IN MY POSTS EARLIER THAT DURING USA RETRACEMENT PERIOD, AFTER THE 8TH 10+WEEKS UP,HANGSENG AND STI WILL NOT FALL AS IT WILL BE WELL SUPPORTED BY CHINA'S RISE."

yesterday,9th october 2012-hangseng +0.5%,sti -0.3%
today,10th october 2012-hangseng -0.2%,sti -0.8%

let us check at the end of usa 8th 10+weeks uptrend pattern,sti finish 3070,sept 10th 2012 week
hsi finish 20629,now it is 20900
sp500 was 1465

today,october 10th 2012- sti at 3040,-1% down
hsi 20900,UP 1.5%
usa 1440,around -2%

HENCE YOU CAN SEE STI FELL LESSER THAN USA.HANGSENG EVEN WENT UP!!

LET ME TELL YOU A STORY-
AFTER EURO CRISIS PART 2 IN 2011,HANGSENG TUMBLED MORE THAN STI AND USA,CAUSING HANGSENG TO BE 2 FIBOS LOWER THAN SP500'S FIBO AND 1FIBO LOWER THAN STI'S FIBO.

TODAY,BOTH STI AND SP500 ARE ABOVE THEIR 61.8%,2970 AND 78.6%,1380 RESPECTIVELY WHEREAS HANGSENG IS STILL BELOW ITS OWN 50% FIBO,21300.

HENCE AT 10TH OCTOBER 2012,STI AT 3040 AND SP500 AT 1440,BOTH AT 2 TO 5 % HIGHER THAN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIBOS,HENCE HANGSENG SHOULD BE TRADING AT AROUND 21800 TO 22400,2 TO 5% HIGHER THAN 21300.

WHEN STI GO TO ITS 78.6%,3380,SP500 AT ITS 100% 1570,HANGSENG WILL BE AT ITS USUAL 61.8% FIBO,MAINTAINING 2 FIBOS LOWER THAN SP500'S 100%,1 FIBO LOWER THAN STI'S 78.6%.

HENCE HANGSENG HAS A LOT OF LOST GROUND TO MAKE UP FOR---FROM 21000 TO ITS 61.8%,23800-24000.THAT SHOULD TALLY WITH SP500 AT 1570,STI NEAR 3400.

BUT IF SHANGHAI COMPOSITE BREAK OUT OF ITS 3+ YEARS BUMP AND RUN FORMATION AND GO TO 3.4K,THEN HANGSENG HAS ENOUGH "FIREPOWER" AND EXCUSE TO BOOMZ ALL THE WAY TO ITS 78.6% FIBO,27300-27500,CUTTING THE DISTANCE TO 1 FIBO BEHIND SP500 AND SAME FIBO AS STI 78.6%

AU REVOIR

NOTHING TO DO WITH NEWS AND SHIT

i'll be back again

 

10th october 2012-HAHA SINGAPORE NEEDS A REVISION TO STAY OUT OF TECHNICAL RECESSION.THE 1ST ASIAN ECONOMY TO ENTER RECESSION IN 2008 DOES IT AGAIN!!

Q2 upward revision might spare Singapore from technical recession: OCBC

Services sector most likely to get revised higher and save the day.
Here's more from OCBC:

Much ado over a technical recession, but Q3 still likely to contract qoq. Market expectations for a Q3 technical recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of sequential contraction) has been building following a slew of disappointing economic data, especially from the manufacturing sector. Our existing forecast is for Q3 growth to come in at +1.4% yoy (-0.3% qoq saar). However, a technical recession may be avoidable if the Q2 growth estimates, initially tipped at +2.0% yoy (-0.7% qoq saar), could be revised higher - it only needs to be shaded up by 0.2% points to 2.2% yoy to be flat qoq saar in Q2 2012.

The most likely candidate for the Q2 upward revision could be the services sector which only expanded a tepid 0.8% yoy in Q2, compared to manufacturing’s +4.5% and construction’s 5.3% growth. Assuming that Q2 GDP growth does get revised higher to reflect at least flat qoq saar growth, then our Q3 growth forecast could shade even lower to -1.0% qoq saar, but we retain our +1.4% yoy call.

It is arguable that a technical recession story would help justify a policy easing, and conversely, the absence of a technical recession may bolster the case for policy status quo. Nevertheless, in our view, the more important factors would be if there is any significant changes to the 2013 growth and inflation outlooks – for instance, anticipative of a significant deterioration in the global growth trajectory in H1 2013, especially for China. The twin challenges of the upcoming US’ fiscal cliff and the deepening recession story for the Eurozone economies also remain intact. The official 2013 growth forecast is only due at a later date, but the median growth forecast currently stands at 3.9% yoy for both FocusConsensus and the Sep MAS professional forecasters survey, which is higher than our 3.5% yoy 2013 forecast.

For now, the risk of headline inflation climbing higher looks slightly more remote now that crude oil prices have retreated, and the recent property measures may cool market sentiment at least in the near-term. That said, the threat from QE3-fuelled liquidity coupled with a fairly tight domestic labour market given the foreign manpower constraints, suggest that the core inflation may not subside below 2% handle easily, and that may be the policy focus at this juncture. The SGD NEER is trading +0.9% from parity, so there’s conceivable policy room to stay or ease.

MY COMMENTS- WHAT POLICY TOOLS DOES THE SINGAPORE MAS HAVE NOW? INTEREST RATES AT ROCK BOTTOM-CAN INTEREST RATES GO TO ZERO OR NEGATIVE???HAHA GOOD LUCK TO PRIVATE CONDOMINIUM OWNERS.I HAVE ALREADY WARNED IN 2011,THOSE WHO BUY PTE CONDO,APT,ON LOW INTEREST RATES,ON STRONG ECONOMY ARE TOTAL IDIOTS WHO 1)LEAVE THEMSELVES TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE PROPERTY CYCLE 2)LEAVE THEMSELVES STUCK TO LESSER POLICY TOOLS BY MAS IF SGP ECONOMY WORSENS-RENTAL WILL BE HARD TO FIND IF ECONOMY WORSENS TRIPLE WHAMMY COMING FOR PTE PROPERTY- 1)SGP ECONOMY LIKELY WORSENING 2)USA INTEREST RATES LIKELY TO START RISE IN 2015,SGP TO FOLLOW 3)THE DOMINO EFFECT WILL COME WHEN RENTALS DOWN,AND AS 2015 NEARS,THERE WILL BE MORE SELLING ON PTE PROPERTIES FROM 2012-2015,VALUATIONS WILL FALL,TRIGGERING BANKS' "MARGIN CALLS" ON PTE PROPERTY LOANS. HDB ON THE OTHER HAND,WILL GO UP AS IT IS A LAGGARD PLAY,AN "INFERIOR GOOD" THAT DOES WELL WHEN ECONOMY IS STAGNANT, TO DOWNWARD BIAS.PEOPLE STILL NEED A PLACE TO STAY AFTER DUMPING THEIR PTE PROPERTIES.  IDIOTS WHO BOUGHT PTE PROPRTIES AFTER 2010 FORGOT THIS PIECE OF DE JA VU NEWS.I TOLD YOU WHEN MARKETS ARE HOT,THESE IDIOTS WHO ARE SO COWARDLY IN COLD MARKETS,WILL SUDDENLY BECOME "SUPERMAN" AND FORGOT ALL TYPES OF WORRIES AND PROBLEMS-- DEJAVU --------- Sat, Oct 11, 2008 - Page 1　News List Singapore becomes the first Asian victim of recession AFP , SINGAPORE   Singapore has become the first Asian economy to fall into recession, analysts said yesterday, after the government revised downward its full-year growth estimate and eased monetary policy for the first time in years. The Ministry of Trade and Industry lowered the city-state’s full-year growth forecast to around 3 percent, citing a slowdown in the global economy and key domestic sectors. The move came as the ministry released preliminary data showing that real GDP declined by 6.3 percent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, the ministry said. While it did not describe the economy as being in recession, a technical recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic output. “Singapore will be the first Asia economy to fall into a technical recession,” DBS Group Research said in an assessment of the data. In a move to confront the downturn, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) — its de facto central bank — said it was easing monetary policy for the first time in more than four years. “The Singapore economy has weakened over the course of 2008, alongside an escalation in the turmoil in financial markets and a more severe deceleration in global economic activity,” MAS said. These developments meant new uncertainties for the Singapore economy, while slower Asian growth would restrain activity in a range of service industries such as transportation and tourism, it said. “The risks to external demand conditions continue to be on the downside and a more severe global downturn cannot be discounted,” the bank said. Singapore is Southeast Asia’s wealthiest economy in terms of GDP per capita, but is heavily dependent on trade. This makes it sensitive to hiccups in developed economies, particularly key export markets the US and Europe. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP, the value of goods and services produced in the economy. Compared with the third quarter of last year, the ministry said Singapore’s economy contracted by 0.5 percent in real terms, against the 0.8 percent expansion foreseen in the Dow Jones poll.

9th october 2012-i told you all usa still in retracement UNLESS WE GET THE SIGNAL OF 1ST WEEK UP OF 9TH 10+ WEEKS UPTREND

TODAY HANGSENG +0.5%,STI -0.3% ALREADY "INFORMED" YOU AND I TONIGHT USA WILL FALL.HANGSENG WAS BOOSTED BY CHINA UP,BUT STI DID NOT.

THAT WAS WHY I SAID IN THIS USA RETRACEMENT STARTED 3 WEEKS AGO,HANGSENG WILL BE FLAT OR HAVING UPSIDE BIAS DUE TO CHINA SURGE UP!

HOW RIGHT I AM TILL NOW.

IF SP500 CLOSED THIS FRIDAY AT 1437 OR NEAR 1437,NEXT WEEK SP500 WILL TEST 1422 AND SURGE UP STRONGLY.IF THAT HAPPENS,THEN NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE 1ST OF 9TH 10+ WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

BUT IF SP500 TOUCH 1422 TOMORROW,AND REBOUND STRONGLY THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,AND CLOSES NEAR 1474,THEN THIS WEEK WILL BE THE 1ST WEEK OF 9TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

LET US SEE THE UNRAVELLING OF THE DRAMA

7th october 2012-singaporeans are cash poor after monthly deducting $70k-$90k coe,property mortgages that such a good stock also no money to support

one person told me mercator singapore is a non index stock,eagle,dryships,navios maritime are all index stocks,BUT THEY FAIL TO REALISE THAT SOME INDEX STOCKS ARE LOUSIER THAN NON INDEX STOCKS.

look at eagle shipping-ALMOST CLOSE SHOP,bankrupt!!

MOREOVER MERCATOR SINGAPORE ALTHOUGH SMALL IN MARKET CAP,BUT ITS PARENT CO. MERCATOR INDIA IS 2ND LARGEST PRIVATE SHIPPING CO. IN INDIA

AND MERCATOR SINGAPORE IS STILL PROFITABLE,AND GIVES OUT DIVIDEND WHEREAS INDEX EAGLE IS ON THE BRINK OF BANKRUPTCY!!I THINK FUNDS AIN'T STUPID TO MISS OUT A GEM AND PICK EAGLE BLINDLY JUST BECAUSE IT IS A INDEX STOCK.

EVEN A CO. ON THE BRINK OF BANKRUPTCY,IN A COUNTRY OF 8% UNEMPLOYEMNT RATE(AFTER FACTORING IN USA POPULATION 60X OF SINGAPORE,300+M VS 5+M),AVERAGE DAILY TRADED VOLUME IS 80+K,VALUE USD $240+K,FRIDAY TURNOVER VALUE IS USD $160K,WHEREAS MERCATOR PROFITABLE,GIVES DIVIDEND.NOT ON BRINK OF BANKRUPTCY,IN A COUNTRY OF UNEMPLOYMENT 2%,friday turnover value is ONLY S$1.3K

AIN'T THIS A SIGN THAT SINGAPOREANS ARE NOT CASH RICH TO APPRECIATE SUCH A GEM IS LISTED IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY!!?

i rest my case

Eagle Shipping (EGLE) Headed for Bankruptcy

March 10, 2012 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: EGLE

The collapse of dry bulk shipping rates over the last three years has caused the bankruptcy of several shipping companies, including Omega Navigation Enterprises and General Maritime Corporation. With this winter's decline in Supramax spot rates from over $14,000/day to under $8,000/day, it is likely that the shipping industry hasn't seen its last casualty. (See "BSI" on pg. 3, here and here).

Eagle by the numbers

When Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) released its last report in November of 2011, the company's financial position already looked grim. The company had $1,129m in debt, and was facing a steep series of debt repayments scheduled for 2012. Specifically, the company was required to raise the following amounts over its next three fiscal quarters:

$28m in principal repayment, due June 30, 2012.$36m in interest repayment ($12m over three quarters).$9m to raise cash reserves from $27m to $36m (a loan covenant requirement)

Total: $73m by June 30, 2012

Eagle is unlikely to generate this kind of income. To achieve this the company would need to bring in $24.3m per quarter, which is unlikely considering their EBITDA was only $25.9m during Q3 2011, a period when Supramax shipping rates were at nearly double their current level.

To get a better picture of what kind of earnings we can expect from the company, I've built a model to forecast the company's earnings using the charter rates for each ship. I've calculated the daily income for each ship by subtracting $5300 in vessel operating expenses from each ship's daily revenue; for ships that aren't chartered out at fixed rates, I've substituted the average Supramax spot rate from each period. This ought to give us a reasonable estimate of the company's gross profit for each quarter. From this we can estimate earnings by subtracting the other major expenses of a shipping company, which are brokerage fees, drydocking expenses and overhead. I've estimated these expenses using their values from the last quarter. This gives us the following earnings projections:

As you can see, we should expect the company to only make some $37m by the end of March, and with shipping rates at their present levels they are unlikely to generate the remaining $37m they will need by the end of June. Eagle's lenders have restricted the company from selling its ships without permission, so unless they can renegotiate terms with their lenders or find a new equity investor, they won't be able to make their principal payment by the end of June.

Annual report delayed

Eagle has released its Q4 earnings and annual report on March 2 of every year since the company was formed. This year, however, the company has delayed until March 15 to release its report. So why have they delayed? Right now we can only give speculative reasons, but we might conjecture that management was looking for more time to try to renegotiate with lenders or find a new equity investor.

Investors would have good reason to avoid this company, too. Management's reputation has been damaged by a shareholder suit that alleges they stole tens of millions of dollars from lenders and shareholders (see article here, court filings here). On top of this, management registered the company in the Marshall Islands, which allowed them to structure the company in a way that transfers power from shareholders to management. Shipping finance is about trust, and when there are plenty of other shipping companies with trustworthy management that also need financing, we shouldn't expect Eagle to be rescued any time soon.

-Greg Womack

 

 

EAGLE(friday5oct cnbc)

 

DETAILED QUOTE (Delayed)

High Today

3.57

Low Today

3.45

Volume

54.2K

10-Day Avg Volume

83.9K

52-Week High (02/15/12)

9.80

52-Week Low (06/01/12)

2.51

1 Yr % Change (TTM)

-34.28

FUNDAMENTALS

Market Cap

54.7M

Shares Outstanding

15.8M

Price/Earnings

-1.1x

Revenue (TTM)

251.5

Earnings per Share

-3.05

Dividend + Yield

-- (0.00%)

Beta

2.51

 

VS MERCATOR LINES

 

Result for : [ WatchList ]

Records : [ 3 ]

As at 05-10-2012 5:13 PM

	Page [ 1 ]
Counter Name SIP Cde Rmk Last Chg % Vol BVol Buy Sell SVol Open High Low Value Sector ▲ Mercator EE6 0.115 +0.002 +1.770 12 15 0.115 0.119 14 0.113 0.115 0.113 1,360 TSC

5th october 2012-YESTERDAY BDI UP A WHOPPING 5%

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

845.00 +47.00 +5.89%

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As of 08:10:47 ET on 10/04/2012

5th october 2012--look at my 3rd october 2012 description of 1st week of 9th 10+weeks uptrend pattern

LOOK AT HOW SP500 OBEDIENT IS TO MY DESCRIPTION OF 1ST WEEK'S CHARACTERISTICS.

IF TOMORROW,SATURDAY MORNING(SINGAPORE TIME),SP500 CLOSES NEAR 1474,THEN THIS WEEK WILL BE THE 1ST WEEK OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

VERY VERY OBEDIENT TO MY DISCOVERED ALGORITHM ON SP500!!!

KEEP TUNED TO THE UNRAVELLING OF THE PRE PLANNED ALGORITHM!!

IF TOMORROW IS SELL DOWN(plunge >1%) or sp500 UNABLE to hit more than 2% weekly gain,1468,THEN SP500 IS STILL IN RETRACEMENT MODE TILL 1422.

I ALREADY CAN SEE THE SCENARIOS EVEN BEFORE THEY HAPPENED!!THAT IS MY 9YEARS EXPERIENCE.

I AM WILLING TO SHARE EVERYTHING WITH YOU ALL BECAUSE I AM NOT A CON MAN, DERIVING INCOME FROM TEACHING PEOPLE HOW TO TRADE.I DERIVE MY INCOME SOLELY FROM RIGHT TRADES.

EXAMPLE,A PERSON PAID THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS TO ATTEND STOCKMARKET COURSES,IN THE END, IT IS ALSO NOT 100% FOOLPROOF.

EVEN,I AM WRONG SOMETIMES BUT YOU ALL HAVE EYES TO SEE WHETHER I HAVE MUCH MORE RIGHTS THAN WRONGS OR MUCH MORE WRONGS THAN RIGHTS.

I CAN ONLY PREDICT USA MAIN INDEX BECAUSE THERE IS AN ALGORITHM.INDIVIDUAL STOCKS,THERE IS HARDLY ANY FIXED ALGORITHM AS SP500 COMPRISES OF 500 COMPANIES,AVERAGED OUT,THERE IS A FIXED PATTERN.

au revoir

i'll be back tomorrow night to SEE WHETHER SP500 CLOSES NEAR 1474






 

3rd october 2012-Last friday usmarkets have confirmed it is retracement time--when will it end?

RETRACEMENT AND NOT CORRECTION TIME

my target is 1422- 1437 as i have smsed my followers and my friends last week.

AS SOON AS WE GET A >2% WEEKLY GAIN IN SP500, PLUS IT CLOSES NEAR 1474 ON ANY PARTICULAR FRIDAY NIGHT,THAT WEEK ENDED THAT FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR 1474, WILL BE THE 1ST WEEK UP OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

IT COULD BE THIS WEEK, OR NEXT WEEK AS I ENVISAGED A VERY SHALLOW RETRACEMENT

au revoir guys,
I'LL BE BACK

27TH SEPT2012- I POST MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF 386.HK-SINOPEC

MY PRIVELEGE BANKER FRIEND ASKED ME,SO I UPDATE.

SINOPEC TRADING IN A $2 BAND,BROKE DOWN,TARGET $6.BUT IT WILL FIRST REVISIT THE $8 RESISTANCE BEFORE THE 3RD HUMP IN USA ENDS,WHERE IT WILL GO DOWN AND HIT THE $6 TECHNICAL TARGET.

TECHNICALS WEAK.

27th september 2012--TODAY HANGSENG DEFENDED 20600 AIN'T BY LUCK

HANGSENG EXPECTED SUCCESSFUL DEFENDING OF 20600 SIMPLY MEANS IT IS GOING UP TO MY 22000 OR 25000.

I TOLD YOU ALL IN MY POSTS EARLIER THAT DURING USA RETRACEMENT PERIOD, AFTER THE 8TH 10+WEEKS UP,HANGSENG AND STI WILL NOT FALL AS IT WILL BE WELL SUPPORTED BY CHINA'S RISE.

3 SCENARIOS:

1) IF THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY,SP500 SURGED UP BY MORE THAN 2% IN EITHER ONE DAY,THEN THIS WEEK WILL BE THE 4TH UPWEEK OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

2) IF THIS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.SP500 FAILED TO GO UP,NEAR 1460,THEN THIS WEEK=2ND RETRACEMENT WEEK

3) IF ANY WEEK AFTER THIS WEEK SURGED UP BY MORE THAN 2% IN ONE WEEK,THEN THAT WEEK WILL BE THE 1ST WEEK OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS UPTREND PATTERN.

PICK YOUR CHOICE

HANGSENG AROUND 22000 AT END OF USA 9TH PLUS CHINA SSE DID NOT BREAKOUT OF 2600-2700

HANGSENG AROUND 25000 AT END OF USA 9TH PLUS CHINA SSE BREAKOUT OF 2600-2700

OF COURSE I HOPE FOR HANGSENG 25000 BECAUSE IT IS DAMN HIGH TIME FOR CHINA TO HAVE A SUSTAINED 6-8MONTHS OF SOLID RALLY

AU REVOIR

SEE YOU GUYS SOON

22nd sept 2012-4 consecutive days BDI +16%!!!

1ST DAY

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND
697.00 34.00 +5.13%

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As of 08:13:00 ET on 09/18/2012

2nd day

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND
722.00 25.00 +3.59%

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As of 08:14:55 ET on 09/19/2012.

3rd day

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

755.00 33.00 +4.57%

As of 08:12:21 ET on 09/20/2012.

4TH DAY

Baltic Dry Index

BDIY:IND

774.00 +19.00 +2.52%

 

As of 08:16:54 ET on 09/21/2012.

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22nd sept 2012-BOTTOM IN DRYBULK SHIPPING STOCKS?REPORT CUT AND PASTE FROM CNBC

"Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks?

September 21, 2012 by: Qineqt | includes: DRYS, EXM, GNK, NM

Many traders are betting that the Chinese demand for iron ore and steel could pick up later in the year. Drybulker stocks, especially the ones that trade on short-term contracts, like DryShips (DRYS), Excel Maritime (EXM) and Genco Shipping (GNK), went up by 7%, 13% and 6.5%, respectively. Stats from China showed that iron ore prices rebounded from their lowest level in three years after the Chinese government approved more than $150 billion for infrastructural development in the second largest economy of the world.
The rise in steel and iron prices was also depicted by the sharp surge of 9% in the Baltic Dry Index (BDIY) in the last two days. BDIY is composed of weighted averages of indices of Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax. However, these indices depend upon the cost of transporting commodities, like grain and iron ore. This of course is further dependent on the prices and demand of commodities. More the demand for commodities, the higher their prices will be; and more demand will lead to a rise in charter rates for vessels, thus leading to a rise in BDIY.

The first week of September
The first week of September was an eventful one for drybulkers. The earnings for Capesize improved by 70% WoW (week over week), but this was offset by falls of 3% and 15% in the rates of Handymax and Panamax, respectively. The decline in Handymax can be attributed to the falling supply of grains due to the worst ever U.S. drought since 1956.
Ship chartering activity also picked up. 26 Capesizes were chartered in the spot market; showing an increase of 24% WoW. This is worth some attention, since total Capesize vessels chartered are 54% of the existing fleet, with 24% alone coming in the first week of September. Capesizes are commonly used to transport iron ore, the commodity from which dry bulkers make up most of their revenues. 85% of the total new capacity will be used to transport iron ore. This is above the 81% in the last week of August and the average for 2011 of 73%.
According to DryShips daily market report for today, the average value of time charters for Capesize increased by $68, and for Supramax by $65. However, the TCE collapsed for Panamax by $201.
BDIY takes some days to adjust to reflect a substantial change in shipping activity. This is because charter rates of the vessels rise only after a persistent rise in demand. This is why BDIY took almost a fortnight to adjust to the sharp rise in shipping activity.
Navios Maritime (NM)
NM has been working hard to reduce its expenses, which is how the company has survived, despite its depressed Time Charter Equivalent Rates (TCE). The company is not burning cash. NM claimed in its earnings presentation that it was able to generate an Average Contracted Daily Charter-Out Rate of $20,870, which was 30% greater than the breakeven rate of $15,950; this rate is expected to rise to $28,683 in 2013.
Debt is also not a problem, given the following debt maturities:

Unlike, DryShips, NM has not diluted shareholders' holdings by issuing too many shares. The company expanded its outstanding shares by only 4% in the last three years, as compared to 744% for DRYS (from 45 million to 380 million). The market considers that this company ranks highest among dry bulkers expected to make positive free cash flows in the future. With a dividend yield of 6.5%, NM looks like an attractive option in the long run. However, the only issue with NM is that it has signed many long-term contracts at depressed charter levels. Therefore, a rise in BDIY may not be of any help to the company, as the charter rates have already been locked for many of its contracts.
DryShips Inc.
DRYS used to be a pure play on the BDIY in 2008-09. By this we mean that DRYS used to book charters using short-term daily charter rates. In this way, when demand for commodities went down, DRYS would avoid locking its vessels in low charter rates. However, this became a nightmare for the company, when BDIY collapsed to all-time low levels, as the company had not locked into long-run favorable rates. DRYS still has the same policy, as it anticipates that the BDIY will rebound in the near future. However, this has led to a miserable utilization rate of 44%.
Another one of the risks attached to the stock is the level of debt that DRYS carries and has to pay in the future. Although the company is not burning cash, it is bound to pay $754 million in 2013 and almost $1 billion in 2014. This is enormous given its current cash balance of $367 million.
However, DRYS has 65% stake in Ocean Rig (ORIG), which if sold could bring more than $2 billion to the company at the current market rate. Along with this, CEO George Economou has a reputation of destroying shareholder value, which means he will be more than willing to sell ORIG shares to pay debt, in case the company does not have enough cash resources at the time of debt maturities.
ORIG's stakes make DRYS an attractive buy.

Conclusion
The change in rates of Capesize is surely a positive point for the Drybulk Industry. It may be the first signal to the market that the industry's revival is just around the corner. However, it will be early to conclude anything at this point in time. The billion dollar question to be asked is:
"Is the rise in shipping activity temporary? And is it just because of the Chinese approval of a budget for infrastructural development, or is it a structural change in the industry, which may have finally turned around?"
Important catalysts to look out for are:

• Persistent recovery in the Chinese GDP growth rate.
• A company striking a deal to get sufficient debt in order to survive the crisis."

ABOVE REPORT from: http://seekingalpha.com/article/880021-bottom-in-dry-bulk-shipping-stocks?source=cnbc

21st sept 2012-this 8th 10+ weeks uptrend has a VERY PECULIAR ALGORITHM

EVERY SURGE FROM JUNE 4TH 2012 WEEK,HAPPENED ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY!!!!

1)june 6th,wednesday- sp500 +30points

2)june 29th ,FRIDAY- sp500 +33points

3)july 13th,FRIDAY- sp500 +22points

4)july 26th,THURSDAY- sp500 +22points

5)july 27th,FRIDAY-sp500 +25points

6)august 3rd,FRIDAY- sp500 +26points

7)sept 6th,THURSDAY- sp500 +29points

8)sept13th,THURSDAY-sp500 +24points

ONLY ONE OUT OF EIGHT SURGES(DEFINED AS MORE THAN 1%) HAPPENED ON WEDNESDAY,7 OUT OF 8 SURGES HAPPENED ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAYS