Investors Continue to Yank Money Out of Stocks
Published: Friday, 6 Jan 2012
1:44 PM ET Text Size By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money & Halftime
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Investors yanked money out of U.S. equity mutual funds for a ninth-consecutive week despite a bullish 2012 outlook from Wall Street and a December rally that’s carried over into the New Year.
U.S. funds—not including ETFs —lost $1.1 billion in the week ended Wednesday, according to data from Lipper FMI. This follows a $1.7 billion outflow in the previous week. Investors put money into taxable and municipal bond funds instead, the data showed.
“Trends remained largely intact as we moved into the first week of 2012,” said Daniel Fannon, a financial analyst with Jefferies, who cited the data in a note to clients.
The S&P 500 [.SPX 1277.81 -3.25 (-0.25%) ] began 2012 with a 1.6 percent surge on Tuesday and is up 2 percent for the week. A better-than-expected jobs report added to the bullish tone Friday.
Wall Street strategists, on average, expect the U.S. benchmark to increase by 7 percent this year, according to a consensus calculation by Goldman Sachs. The market seers generally cite a strong domestic economy overshadowing the credit crisis in Europe. But apparently, their retail clients aren’t listening.
The continued outflows mean “folks set a mental level, thinking ‘please God if we ever get to this point, I will take the money and run,’” said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com. “It also means we could have more people chasing the market higher if this move hits 1300 in the S&P 500.”
The index is up 19 percent from its intraday low for 2011 hit three months ago and was approaching 1282 in trading Friday.
U.S. Stock Funds Have Second-Worst Year
QBy Charles Stein - Jan 6, 2012 1:00 PM GMT+0800
U.S. stock mutual funds that invest in domestic equities had their second-biggest redemptions last year as record market swings sent investors to the perceived safety of bond funds.
Investors pulled an estimated $132 billion from mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks, the fifth straight year of withdrawals for domestic funds, according to preliminary data from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group whose numbers go back to 1984. Withdrawals reached $147 billion in 2008 when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 37 percent, including dividends.
Withdrawals accelerated in May and June amid concern that weaker European economies would not be able to repay their debts. They peaked in July as Congress debated whether to lift the nation’s debt ceiling. Those events, as well as lingering memories of the 2008 selloff and a subpar U.S. economic recovery, may all have contributed to investor discontent, said Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. interview.
“A lot of people remember they got burned so they are more sensitive to bad news than they were before,” Kinnel said in a telephone interview.
‘Bear the Pain’
Volatility increased in the third quarter as the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating at Standard & Poor’s and concern about the European debt crisis intensified. The S&P 500 moved 2.4 percent (SPX) on average between its intraday lows and highs, the most for any quarter since 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alternated between gains and losses exceeding 400 points on four straight days in August, the longest such streak ever.
“Investors just can’t bear the pain, which sets the stages for an unwillingness to take risk,” said Christopher Blum, chief investment officer for behavioral finance at JPMorgan Asset Management in New York.
The redemptions from domestic stock funds have come from managers who pick equities in an attempt to beat market benchmarks. Actively-managed funds saw withdrawals from 2007 through 2010 while index funds attracted money in each of those years, Morningstar data show. The same pattern held through the first 11 months of 2011.
“People are convinced that active management has failed to deliver,” Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund consultant based in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said in a telephone interview.
Leaving Active Funds
Funds that invest in international stocks attracted about $6 billion last year, ICI data show, down from $58 billion in 2010. Taxable bond funds saw an estimated $141 billion in deposits, below the $230 billion they attracted the previous year. Municipal bond funds suffered withdrawals of about $12 billion. In 2010 they had $11 billion in deposits.
The ICI has released monthly flow data through November and weekly numbers through Dec. 28, which may be revised. Final numbers for December will be published at the end of January, according to the ICI.
Domestic equity funds captivated the American public in the 1990s, thanks to a stock market that rose at an annual pace of 18 percent a year and the well-publicized success of stock pickers such as Peter Lynch of Fidelity Investments. Lynch guided Fidelity’s Magellan Fund to gains of 29 percent a year from 1977 to 1990 compared with 15 percent annual returns for the S&P 500 index.
In the past 10 years the S&P 500 returned 2.9 percent annually, including reinvested dividends. Investors suffered double-digit losses in 2001, 2002 and 2008.
Better news on the U.S. economy and a resolution of Europe’s debt problems might inspire investors to begin a return to U.S. stock funds, said Blum. In the meantime those investors could be missing good opportunities.
“There is a risk to not owning equities,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel in Boston at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
MY COMMENTS-YEAH!!ISNT THIS FUNNY?LOOK AT THE TIMING THE AVERAGE RETARD SOLD STOCKS-
WHEN DID THE AVERAGE RETARD "EJACULATED" ALL THEIR STOCK HOLDINGS OUT?IN JULY 2011!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
IF THEY HAVE READ MY BLOG,THEY WILL HAVE KNOWN IN FEB/MARCH 2011,I WAS VERY BEARISH AND WAS LOOKING FOR A 20% FALL IN STI AND WORLD MARKETS.DID I WAIT TILL JULY2011 TO "EJACULATE"?DID I WAIT TILL BAD NEWS IS ALL OUT THEN I "EJACULATE" MY STOCK HOLDINGS????
I "EJACULATED" ALL MY STOCK HOLDINGS IN FEB2011!!!!!!!HAHAHAHA THIS NEWS IS SO FUNNY.PLEASE READ MY FEB2011 POSTS FOR PROOF I WAS DAMN BEARISH ON THE STOCKMARKETS.I SAID ONLY FOOLS BUY FROM ME IN FEB2011.hahahahahaha
THE STOCKMARKET IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY AS BUSINESS.SOMEBODY HAS TO LOSE IN ORDER TO MAKE SOMEBODY WIN.STOCKMARKET,PROPERTY MARKET,BUSINESS MARKETS ARE ALL ZERO SUM GAMES.WAKE UP.RECENTLY SO MANY BOOKSHOPS IN SINGAPORE CLOSE DOWN,EG. BORDERS,PAGEONE.WHY?THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF THE BOOKSTORES BECAUSE NOW THERE ARE E-BOOKS.
JUST ASK YOURSELVES THIS SIMPLE QUESTION-WHY ARE WITHDRAWALS SO HUGE,2ND HIGHEST,BEHIND 2008,YET SP500 REMAIN FLAT FOR 2011??WHY???WHO HAS BEEN EATING UP THE "GOODIES"?
THE AVERAGE RETARD HAS ALREADY LEFT THE MARKET,NOW IT IS THE TIME TO PUSH UP,THEN AFTER STOCKMARKET SOARED,THEN THEY WILL RETURN AND BE TIED ANOTHER 20YEARS!!!!then they will complain again.PLEASE DO NOT RE ENTER THE STOCKMARKET AGAIN.
THE AVERAGE RETARD DESERVED TO GET BURNT IN THE STOCKMARKET.PATTERNS,CYCLES REPEAT AND REPEAT BUT AS AN ADULT, A FULLY MATURED ADULT,WHO LIVED SO MANY YEARS ON EARTH YET CAN FAIL TO LEARN REPEATED PATTERNS DESERVE TO LOSE.HOW CAN ANYONE,A FULLY GROWN MATURE ADULT, MISS OUT THAT 2009 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2003,2010 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2004,2011 EXACT PHOTOCOPY OF 2005 IN SP500.
if you cant see thru cycles, PLEASE QUIT THE STOCKMARKET AND NEVER RETURN.the stockmarket DOES NOT need your SMALL money to go up.the stockmarket can go up "ON ITS OWN".
TO THOSE WHO SELL IN may/july2011-YOU MUST HAVE BOUGHT SOMEWHERE IN 1999-2000,TIED UP FOR 10+ YEARS,NEVER EARN A SINGLE PROFIT.THEN WHEN SP500 RETURNED TO YOUR SAME 1200s levels,u sell ALL and VOW NEVER TO RETURN TO THE STOCKMARKET. you as an american,you have put warren buffett's teachings to shame!i know warren buffet is not 100% right BUT investing is simply "BUY WHEN MAJORITY IS AFRAID,SELL WHEN MAJORITY ARE GREEDY".
IT IS THE SAME AS PROPERTY MARKET.please look at china property now.dead as a mouse.a lot of china people are cursing the property market for making them lose their wealth.WHY IS THAT SO?
THE AVERAGE RETARDS WILL ALWAYS BE SUCKED INTO HUGE RISES,GET TIED FOR 10-20YEARS OF FLATTISH OR LOSING MONEY YEARS THEN THEY WILL "EJACULATE" AT LOW OR SAME PRICES THAT THEY BOUGHT 10-20YEARS AGO.this cycle WILL REPEAT because this retard QUIT,THERE COMES THE NEXT RETARD!hahahahaha
THANK YOU
呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
Saturday, January 7, 2012
7jan2012-haha so funny news!!CHINA COMPANY DEFIES SGX!!CHINA COMPANY SAYS ACCOUNTS BURNT IN FIRE!!HAHA I DONT WAIT TILL THINGS TO HAPPEN THEN I CURSE.I ALREADY KNOW THESE ARE LOUSY COMPANIES WAY BACK IN 2006 BEFORE CRISIS
China Sky fails to meet SGX deadline for special auditor
Friday 6 January 2012, 7:44 SGT
By Eveline Danubrata
SINGAPORE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre has failed to meet a deadline set by Singapore Exchange (SGX) to appoint a special auditor, in a rare display of defiance by a listed company in the city-state.
The SGX directed China Sky in November last year to appoint a special auditor to investigate transactions between the company and its audit committee chairman as well as a failed land acquisition in China, among other issues.
But China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. The company also released a string of responses to SGX's reprimand, including email exchanges with the bourse.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline Thursday, Jan 5, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
China Sky failed to meet the deadline and instead announced late on Thursday that three independent directors had stepped down with immediate effect due to the non-compliance with SGX's directive.
"I think this is the first time when a company is so belligerent in Singapore," said Kenneth Ng, head of CIMB Research in Singapore said on Thursday before the expiry of SGX's deadline. "An exchange has to be there to protect the interest of minority shareholders."
The Singapore bourse has stepped up its scrutiny of the accounting practices of Singapore-listed Chinese companies, known in the city-state as S-chips, after two waves of accounting problems last year and in 2008, analysts said.
"We do notice that the SGX is more proactive, especially after the recent accounting scandals," said Eric Ong, an analyst at Singapore brokerage Kim Eng.
"The SGX has requested for more information after the S-chips released their quarterly results. They also asked the companies to be more transparent."
When asked if the SGX has increased the number of queries on companies' earnings, a spokeswoman said that the bourse issues such queries in discharging its role as "a frontline regulator of listed companies."
"A query by the exchange aims to extract greater disclosure from listed companies where trends and figures may not have been explained in a manner which would allow investors to make informed decisions," the spokeswoman said.
For serious breaches of its rules, SGX will put the case before a disciplinary committee who may reprimand, fine, suspend and/or expel the member, according to its website.
Among the latest examples of accounting irregularities at S-chips, an independent investigation by NTan Corporate Advisory released last December found a total of HK$777 million ($99.9 million) in cash that had been unaccounted for at FibreChem Technologies.
Earlier this week, Sino Techfibre, which makes synthetic leather products, said it had appointed Stone Forest Corporate Advisory to carry out a valuation of the company.
An audit committee said a valuation may help to reconstruct Sino Techfibre's accounts which were lost in a fire. The company had announced last April that a fire at its offices in China had destroyed its books and financial records. (Editing by Rachel Armstrong)
THESE ARE MY COMMENTS:-WHAT DO YOU EXPECT OF SINGAPORE,GUYS?WHY DID I EXPECT FOREIGN COMPANIES WHO COME TO SGX TO LIST,MAJORITY ARE "BLOWN UP" TO BE VERY GOOD?
U JUST THINK WHAT I SAY:COMPANIES COME TO LIST IS TO GET WHAT?MONEY RIGHT?IPO MONEY RIGHT?SINGAPOREANS MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP WHERE?CPF RIGHT?CAN CPF $ BE USED TO BID IPO?CANNOT RIGHT??THEN WHERE THE BIDDING IPO MONEY COME FROM???READY CASH RIGHT??
WITH MAJORITY SINGAPOREANS' MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP IN CPF,DO YOU THINK MANY WILL HAVE ENOUGH READY CASH TO BID FOR IPOS?????????VERY GOOD COMPANIES WANT TO GET A FEW BILLIONS IN IPO,NOT A FEW MILLIONS.SO WHO WILL COME TO SINGAPORE TO LIST?-THE LOUSY COMPANIES BUT HAVE TO BE PAINTED TO BE GOOD.
THAT IS WHY I SAID IN MY BLOG LONG LONG TIME AGO THAT ALTHOUGH IM A SINGAPOREAN,I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO APPRECIATE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS,THAT IS WHY I WILL NEVER BUY HIGH END RESIDENTIAL CONDO,APARTMENTS.COMMERCIAL,THEN I WILL CONSIDER AS IT IS A DIFFERENT BALL GAME.
comments from singaporeans in forum:-
WHY SINGAPORE SGX IS WELL KNOWN TO US,FULLTIME TRADERS, AS A "REJECT","3rd tier" HUB?THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN CHINA HOMELAND,WILL LIST IN HONGKONG.THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN HONGKONG,THEN WILL COME TO SINGAPORE.IT IS A WELL KNOWN FACT THAT HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS.WHY???
YUEN,U WANT SGX TO BE STRICTER WITH FOREIGN CON-PANIES?HOW?IF SGX IS AS STRICT AS HKEX(WHERE HKERS ARE MORE CASH RICH,NO 35%CPF,NO 7%GST,NO COE,NO ERP),THEN HAHAHAHA NOBODY WANT TO LIST HERE ALREADY.HAHAHAHA COME ON WAKE UP LAH
THE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE IS WRONG IN THE 1ST PLACE.IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT HK IPOS RAISE MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE MONEY THAN SINGAPORE IPOS.
SORRY TO GUYS LIKE YUEN,THIS TREND THAT HK RAISE MUCH MUCH MORE IPO $ THAN SINGAPORE +HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS THAN SGX,WILL NEVER CHANGE,UNLESS THE SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE CHANGE 1st.
Friday 6 January 2012, 7:44 SGT
By Eveline Danubrata
SINGAPORE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Textile manufacturer China Sky Chemical Fibre has failed to meet a deadline set by Singapore Exchange (SGX) to appoint a special auditor, in a rare display of defiance by a listed company in the city-state.
The SGX directed China Sky in November last year to appoint a special auditor to investigate transactions between the company and its audit committee chairman as well as a failed land acquisition in China, among other issues.
But China Sky said such a move was unwarranted and not in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. The company also released a string of responses to SGX's reprimand, including email exchanges with the bourse.
The SGX then gave China Sky a final deadline Thursday, Jan 5, with the backing of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
China Sky failed to meet the deadline and instead announced late on Thursday that three independent directors had stepped down with immediate effect due to the non-compliance with SGX's directive.
"I think this is the first time when a company is so belligerent in Singapore," said Kenneth Ng, head of CIMB Research in Singapore said on Thursday before the expiry of SGX's deadline. "An exchange has to be there to protect the interest of minority shareholders."
The Singapore bourse has stepped up its scrutiny of the accounting practices of Singapore-listed Chinese companies, known in the city-state as S-chips, after two waves of accounting problems last year and in 2008, analysts said.
"We do notice that the SGX is more proactive, especially after the recent accounting scandals," said Eric Ong, an analyst at Singapore brokerage Kim Eng.
"The SGX has requested for more information after the S-chips released their quarterly results. They also asked the companies to be more transparent."
When asked if the SGX has increased the number of queries on companies' earnings, a spokeswoman said that the bourse issues such queries in discharging its role as "a frontline regulator of listed companies."
"A query by the exchange aims to extract greater disclosure from listed companies where trends and figures may not have been explained in a manner which would allow investors to make informed decisions," the spokeswoman said.
For serious breaches of its rules, SGX will put the case before a disciplinary committee who may reprimand, fine, suspend and/or expel the member, according to its website.
Among the latest examples of accounting irregularities at S-chips, an independent investigation by NTan Corporate Advisory released last December found a total of HK$777 million ($99.9 million) in cash that had been unaccounted for at FibreChem Technologies.
Earlier this week, Sino Techfibre, which makes synthetic leather products, said it had appointed Stone Forest Corporate Advisory to carry out a valuation of the company.
An audit committee said a valuation may help to reconstruct Sino Techfibre's accounts which were lost in a fire. The company had announced last April that a fire at its offices in China had destroyed its books and financial records. (Editing by Rachel Armstrong)
THESE ARE MY COMMENTS:-WHAT DO YOU EXPECT OF SINGAPORE,GUYS?WHY DID I EXPECT FOREIGN COMPANIES WHO COME TO SGX TO LIST,MAJORITY ARE "BLOWN UP" TO BE VERY GOOD?
U JUST THINK WHAT I SAY:COMPANIES COME TO LIST IS TO GET WHAT?MONEY RIGHT?IPO MONEY RIGHT?SINGAPOREANS MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP WHERE?CPF RIGHT?CAN CPF $ BE USED TO BID IPO?CANNOT RIGHT??THEN WHERE THE BIDDING IPO MONEY COME FROM???READY CASH RIGHT??
WITH MAJORITY SINGAPOREANS' MAJORITY SALARIES TIED UP IN CPF,DO YOU THINK MANY WILL HAVE ENOUGH READY CASH TO BID FOR IPOS?????????VERY GOOD COMPANIES WANT TO GET A FEW BILLIONS IN IPO,NOT A FEW MILLIONS.SO WHO WILL COME TO SINGAPORE TO LIST?-THE LOUSY COMPANIES BUT HAVE TO BE PAINTED TO BE GOOD.
THAT IS WHY I SAID IN MY BLOG LONG LONG TIME AGO THAT ALTHOUGH IM A SINGAPOREAN,I DO NOT KNOW HOW TO APPRECIATE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS,THAT IS WHY I WILL NEVER BUY HIGH END RESIDENTIAL CONDO,APARTMENTS.COMMERCIAL,THEN I WILL CONSIDER AS IT IS A DIFFERENT BALL GAME.
comments from singaporeans in forum:-
2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
Yuen "I have previously wrote the SGX about status of China Hongx which has been suspended for some time. Till today have not heard from them.Why isn't atime limit set on them? So many "China" listed companies have discrepencies and got suspended . One wonders why SGX is still allowing those company to list in the SGX - probably to make profits for SGX at the expense of the shareholders."HELLO YUEN,IF YOU ARE READING MY BLOG NOW.IF SINGAPOREANS ARE CASH RICH,DO YOU THINK WILL HAVE SO MANY FOREIGN CON-PANIES?AFTER THE MALAYSIA SCANDAL LAST TIME,2008 IS THE START OF THE CHINA SCANDALS.
WHY SINGAPORE SGX IS WELL KNOWN TO US,FULLTIME TRADERS, AS A "REJECT","3rd tier" HUB?THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN CHINA HOMELAND,WILL LIST IN HONGKONG.THOSE WHO CANT LIST IN HONGKONG,THEN WILL COME TO SINGAPORE.IT IS A WELL KNOWN FACT THAT HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS.WHY???
YUEN,U WANT SGX TO BE STRICTER WITH FOREIGN CON-PANIES?HOW?IF SGX IS AS STRICT AS HKEX(WHERE HKERS ARE MORE CASH RICH,NO 35%CPF,NO 7%GST,NO COE,NO ERP),THEN HAHAHAHA NOBODY WANT TO LIST HERE ALREADY.HAHAHAHA COME ON WAKE UP LAH
THE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE IS WRONG IN THE 1ST PLACE.IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT HK IPOS RAISE MUCH MUCH MUCH MORE MONEY THAN SINGAPORE IPOS.
SORRY TO GUYS LIKE YUEN,THIS TREND THAT HK RAISE MUCH MUCH MORE IPO $ THAN SINGAPORE +HKEX HAS STRICTER LISTING REGULATIONS THAN SGX,WILL NEVER CHANGE,UNLESS THE SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHICS OF SINGAPORE CHANGE 1st.
Friday, January 6, 2012
6JAN2012-MANIPULATION PATTERN OF DRYBULKS (WESTERN AND ASIAN)SEE FOR YOURSELVES HOW "COOPERATIVE" WESTERN AND ASIAN SAME SECTOR STOCKS ARE
LETS COMPARE
MARCH 2009 STOCKMARKETS HIT BOTTOM.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE
MARCH 3RD,
DRYS LOWEST WAS 2.72,MAR 3RD 2009
EAGLES LOWEST WAS ALSO ON MARCH 3RD 2009-2.87
OPERATOR 1ST ENTERED MERCATOR ON 23MARCH2009,20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS HIT LOWEST.
MARCH 23 2009,DRYSHIPS WAS ALREADY AT 4.95, A RESOUNDING 80% RISE IN 20DAYS.
EAGLE WAS AT 4.19USD,A RESOUNDING 46% RISE IN ALSO 20DAYS.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS HIT PEAK.
MAY 7TH 2009-DRYSHIPS HIT PEAK AT 11.50 USD,A RESOUNDING 325% PROFIT MARGIN!!
MAY7TH 2009-EAGLES HIT PEAK AT 9.40USD,A RESOUNDING 227% PROFIT MARGIN!!
BUT MERCATOR(ASIAN DRYBULK) DIDNT HIT PEAK ON MAY 7TH 2009
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ONLY ON JUNE 3RD 2009-AT 44.5C SGD(I STILL KEEP MY CONTRACTS WITH ME TO SHOW I SOLD 800LOTS,800,000SHARES, AT THE HIGHEST 44.5C.BACK THEN I DIDNT PAY ATTENTION TO THE DRYBULKS MANIPULATION PATTERN.I ONLY KNOW STI WILL REVERSE DOWN AFTER HITTING 2700 FOR THE 1ST TIME)
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ALSO AROUND 20+ DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS BECAUSE ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE 20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN COUNTERPARTS.
THIS IS A STORY OF 1ST START 1ST FINISHED.THAT IS WHY WESTERN DRYBULKS "NEEDED " A DOUBLE TOP ALSO ON JUNE 3RD 2009(SAME TIME AS MERCATOR HIT PEAK) TO START TUMBLING DOWN WITH THE ASIAN DRYBULKS)
HOW "COOPERATIVE"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHAT THE FUCK
IF WE APPLY THIS MANIPULATION PATTERN AGAIN,U CAN SEE UP TILL TODAY,ITS THE SAME!!!WESTERN DRYBULKS 1ST STARTED REBOUNDING FROM THEIR LOWEST IN DEC28,2011 DRYS WAS AT 1.98,EAGLE WAS AT 0.88.
PLEASE NOTE:this theory has HIGH CHANCE of repeating IF DRYS AND EAGLE DONT GO BELOW THEIR DEC28 LOWEST,AND BY ADDING 20DAYS TO DEC28,WE KNOW OPERATOR WILL START TO ENTER ASIAN DRYBULKS AT AROUND JAN20s,due to the chinese new year DISRUPTIONS,it may be dragged to early february 2012.
MARCH 2009 STOCKMARKETS HIT BOTTOM.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE
MARCH 3RD,
DRYS LOWEST WAS 2.72,MAR 3RD 2009
EAGLES LOWEST WAS ALSO ON MARCH 3RD 2009-2.87
OPERATOR 1ST ENTERED MERCATOR ON 23MARCH2009,20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS HIT LOWEST.
MARCH 23 2009,DRYSHIPS WAS ALREADY AT 4.95, A RESOUNDING 80% RISE IN 20DAYS.
EAGLE WAS AT 4.19USD,A RESOUNDING 46% RISE IN ALSO 20DAYS.
TIME WESTERN AND ASIAN DRYBULKS HIT PEAK.
MAY 7TH 2009-DRYSHIPS HIT PEAK AT 11.50 USD,A RESOUNDING 325% PROFIT MARGIN!!
MAY7TH 2009-EAGLES HIT PEAK AT 9.40USD,A RESOUNDING 227% PROFIT MARGIN!!
BUT MERCATOR(ASIAN DRYBULK) DIDNT HIT PEAK ON MAY 7TH 2009
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ONLY ON JUNE 3RD 2009-AT 44.5C SGD(I STILL KEEP MY CONTRACTS WITH ME TO SHOW I SOLD 800LOTS,800,000SHARES, AT THE HIGHEST 44.5C.BACK THEN I DIDNT PAY ATTENTION TO THE DRYBULKS MANIPULATION PATTERN.I ONLY KNOW STI WILL REVERSE DOWN AFTER HITTING 2700 FOR THE 1ST TIME)
MERCATOR HIT PEAK ALSO AROUND 20+ DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN DRYBULKS BECAUSE ASIAN DRYBULKS STARTED TO RISE 20DAYS LATER THAN WESTERN COUNTERPARTS.
THIS IS A STORY OF 1ST START 1ST FINISHED.THAT IS WHY WESTERN DRYBULKS "NEEDED " A DOUBLE TOP ALSO ON JUNE 3RD 2009(SAME TIME AS MERCATOR HIT PEAK) TO START TUMBLING DOWN WITH THE ASIAN DRYBULKS)
HOW "COOPERATIVE"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHAT THE FUCK
IF WE APPLY THIS MANIPULATION PATTERN AGAIN,U CAN SEE UP TILL TODAY,ITS THE SAME!!!WESTERN DRYBULKS 1ST STARTED REBOUNDING FROM THEIR LOWEST IN DEC28,2011 DRYS WAS AT 1.98,EAGLE WAS AT 0.88.
PLEASE NOTE:this theory has HIGH CHANCE of repeating IF DRYS AND EAGLE DONT GO BELOW THEIR DEC28 LOWEST,AND BY ADDING 20DAYS TO DEC28,WE KNOW OPERATOR WILL START TO ENTER ASIAN DRYBULKS AT AROUND JAN20s,due to the chinese new year DISRUPTIONS,it may be dragged to early february 2012.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
5JAN2012-HUAT AH!AS I SAID DAYS EARLIER,DRY BULK WILL SOAR SOON.NOW THIS NEWS COMES OUT!!GREAT "EXCUSE"!HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT HUAT!!!!!!!!
Oil Price Would Skyrocket If Iran Closed the Hormuz Strait
Published: Thursday, 5 Jan 2012
12:38 AM ET Text Size By: Clifford Krauss Twitter
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HOUSTON - If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.
Atta Kenare
AFP
Getty Images
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An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.
United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.
Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analysts.
A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.
Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 09:38:49 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 45880947
Can Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?Iran Oil Tension Boosts Prices: The New Libya?Global Sanctions Against Iran: How They Would Work
“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,” said Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “There is a peril of engaging in brinksmanship from all sides.”
Various Iranian officials in recent weeks have said they would blockade the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, if the United States and Europe imposed a tight oil embargo on their country in an effort to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.
That did not stop President Obama from signing legislation last weekend imposing sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank intended to make it more difficult for the country to sell its oil, nor did it dissuade the European Union from moving toward a ban on Iranian oil imports.
Energy analysts say even a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could raise the world price of oil within days by $50 a barrel or more, and that would quickly push the price of a gallon of regular gasoline to well over $4 a gallon. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Just the threat of such a development has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel in recent weeks despite a return of Libyan oil to world markets, worries of a European economic downturn and weakening American gasoline demand. Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as the political tensions intensified.
MORE FROM NYTIMES.COM
Current DateTime: 09:40:30 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 22528753
WorldPoliticsBusiness
American officials have warned Iran against violating international laws that protect commercial shipping in international waters, adding that the Navy would guarantee free sea traffic.
“If the Iranians chose to use their modest navy and antiship missiles to attack allied forces, they would see a probable swift devastation of their naval capability,” said David L. Goldwyn, former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs. “We would take out their frigates.”
More than 85 percent of the oil and most of the natural gas that flows through the strait goes to China, Japan, India, South Korea and other Asian nations. But a blockade would have a ripple effect on global oil prices.
Since Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all rely on the strait to ship their oil and natural gas exports, a blockade might undermine some of those governments in an already unstable region.
This satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
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Analysts say that a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would most likely bring China and the United States into something of an alliance to restore shipments, although Mr. Goldwyn said China would more likely resort to private diplomacy instead of military force.
Europe and the United States would probably feel the least direct impact because they have strategic oil reserves and could get some Persian Gulf oil through Red Sea pipelines. Saudi Arabia has pipelines that could transport about five million barrels out of the region, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also have pipelines with large capacities.
But transportation costs would be higher if the strait were blocked, and several million barrels of oil exports would remain stranded, sending energy prices soaring on global markets.
“To close the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of war against the whole world,” said Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former head of exploration and development at Saudi Aramco. “You just can’t play with the global economy and assume that nobody is going to react.”
This story originally appeared in The New York Times
Published: Thursday, 5 Jan 2012
12:38 AM ET Text Size By: Clifford Krauss Twitter
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HOUSTON - If Iran were to follow through with its threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transit route for almost one-fifth of the oil traded globally, the impact would be immediate: Energy analysts say the price of oil would start to soar and could rise 50 percent or more within days.
Atta Kenare
AFP
Getty Images
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An Iranian blockade by means of mining, airstrikes or sabotage is logistically well within Tehran’s military capabilities. But despite rising tensions with the West, including a tentative ban on European imports of Iranian oil announced Wednesday, Iran is unlikely to take such hostile action, according to most Middle East political experts.
United States officials say the Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in nearby Bahrain, stands ready to defend the shipping route and, if necessary, retaliate militarily against Iran.
Iran’s own shaky economy relies on exporting at least two million barrels of oil a day through the strait, which is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf and “the world’s most important oil choke point,” according to Energy Department analysts.
A blockade would also punish China, Iran’s most important oil customer and a major recipient of Persian Gulf oil. China has invested heavily in Iranian oil fields and has opposed Western efforts to sanction Iran over its nuclear program.
Despite such deterrents to armed confrontation, oil and foreign policy analysts say a miscalculation is possible that could cause an overreaction from one side or the other.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 09:38:49 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 45880947
Can Iran Close the Strait of Hormuz?Iran Oil Tension Boosts Prices: The New Libya?Global Sanctions Against Iran: How They Would Work
“I fear we may be blundering toward a crisis nobody wants,” said Helima Croft, senior geopolitical strategist at Barclays Capital. “There is a peril of engaging in brinksmanship from all sides.”
Various Iranian officials in recent weeks have said they would blockade the strait, which is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, if the United States and Europe imposed a tight oil embargo on their country in an effort to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.
That did not stop President Obama from signing legislation last weekend imposing sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank intended to make it more difficult for the country to sell its oil, nor did it dissuade the European Union from moving toward a ban on Iranian oil imports.
Energy analysts say even a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could raise the world price of oil within days by $50 a barrel or more, and that would quickly push the price of a gallon of regular gasoline to well over $4 a gallon. “You would get an international reaction that would not only be high, but irrationally high,” said Lawrence J. Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation.
Just the threat of such a development has helped keep oil prices above $100 a barrel in recent weeks despite a return of Libyan oil to world markets, worries of a European economic downturn and weakening American gasoline demand. Oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday as the political tensions intensified.
MORE FROM NYTIMES.COM
Current DateTime: 09:40:30 04 Jan 2012
LinksList Documentid: 22528753
WorldPoliticsBusiness
American officials have warned Iran against violating international laws that protect commercial shipping in international waters, adding that the Navy would guarantee free sea traffic.
“If the Iranians chose to use their modest navy and antiship missiles to attack allied forces, they would see a probable swift devastation of their naval capability,” said David L. Goldwyn, former State Department coordinator for international energy affairs. “We would take out their frigates.”
More than 85 percent of the oil and most of the natural gas that flows through the strait goes to China, Japan, India, South Korea and other Asian nations. But a blockade would have a ripple effect on global oil prices.
Since Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates all rely on the strait to ship their oil and natural gas exports, a blockade might undermine some of those governments in an already unstable region.
This satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysts say that a crisis over the Strait of Hormuz would most likely bring China and the United States into something of an alliance to restore shipments, although Mr. Goldwyn said China would more likely resort to private diplomacy instead of military force.
Europe and the United States would probably feel the least direct impact because they have strategic oil reserves and could get some Persian Gulf oil through Red Sea pipelines. Saudi Arabia has pipelines that could transport about five million barrels out of the region, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also have pipelines with large capacities.
But transportation costs would be higher if the strait were blocked, and several million barrels of oil exports would remain stranded, sending energy prices soaring on global markets.
“To close the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of war against the whole world,” said Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, former head of exploration and development at Saudi Aramco. “You just can’t play with the global economy and assume that nobody is going to react.”
This story originally appeared in The New York Times
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
3jan2012-why idiots cant use their asses to think?
with the sg/hk economy at full throttle in 2010,AND with super low interest rates to buy property,why cant idiots think--
1)what if a financial crisis were to hit asia,will hk/sg have the POLICY "LEEWAY" to tweak interest rates to lessen the crises severity?
2)with inflation so high,surely interest rates must rise to "combat" inflation?
3)why with interest rates lower than 2007 in 2010,why cant hk/sgp (MAJORITY) condominiums rise past their previous highs?why HDB (majority) price has been slowly creeping up?NOTHING TO DO WITH INFLUX OF FOREIGNERS.please go and look at iproperty.com.sg HDB,CONDO pricing charts.HDB PRICES STARTED TO SURGE IN Q2 2010,THE SAME TIME CONDO PRICES STARTED TO COME DOWN.im not talking INDIVIDUAL CONDO PRICES,IM TALKING AVERAGE CONDO PRICES in the whole country.
I CAN SEE COMMENTS THAT ITS THE FOREIGNERS THAT CAUSE HDB PRICES TO GO UP.then why did condo prices start to fall at same time hdb start to surge?SURELY IT CANT BE THAT COINCIDENTAL??
the smart singaporeans are already selling to the foolish singaporeans AND ARE DOWNGRADING TO HDB to PRESERVE THEIR PROFITS,IN EVENT OF A DOWNTURN.SMART PEOPLE DONT NEED LOW INTEREST RATES TO ENTICE THEM INTO BUYING.SMART PEOPLE NEED FOOLISH PEOPLE TO SELL TO.THAT IS WHY DESPITE THE LOW INTEREST RATES,AVERAGE CONDO PRICES CANT SEEM TO EXCEED 2007.
SO GOOD LUCK TO THE HARDCORE CONDO OWNERS,U ALL WONT BE HIT NOW AS SINGAPORE ECONOMY IS STILL HEALTHY,USA STOCKMARKET IS STILL GOING UP IN 2012.BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN SP500 HIT 1900,AND HSI/STI HIT NEAR 2007 MAX.
DONT EVER TELL ME STOCKMARKET HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROPERTY.IF U THINK LIKE THAT,YOUR WHOLE LIFE WILL BE FUCKED UP.I QUOTE EVIDENCE TO BACK MY STATEMENTS-
1)IF THE STI DIDNT SURGE NEAR 100% IN 5MONTHS FROM MARCH-AUGUST2009,DO YOU THINK PROPERTY WILL BE STABLE,GOING UP?
2)IF STI DIDNT FALL ONLY 20% (FROM 3300LIKE I SAID),DO YOU THINK THE ECONOMY WILL BE ONLY "SLOWING DOWN"??
EVERYTHING IS DICTATED BY THE STOCKMARKET 1st,WE FULLTIME TRADERS ALREADY KNOW WHAT IS IN HAND FOR THE ECONOMY IN NEAR FUTURE.
LIKE I SAID 2011-2014 WILL BE THE PRELUDE TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISES PART2:IT WONT HAPPEN NOW IN 2012.
ASK YOURSELVES-IF THE ECONOMY IN THE FUTURE IS SO GOOD,AND WITH SUCH LOW INTEREST RATES,SHOULD NOT HIGH END CONDO PRICES BE SURGING TO THE ROOF??THE RICH KNOW BETTER THAN THE LAYMEN.
NOTE-I AM NOT INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE HIGH END RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS I DONT EVEN WANT TO STAY HERE TILL I DIE NOR I AM ATTRACTED BY THE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS.I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE COMMERCIAL SHOPS,AND EVEN SO,I WONT BUY IT TILL THERE IS A FULL BLOWN CRISES.I HAVE BOUGHT 1 COMMERCIAL SHOP IN ORCHARD ROAD IN 2005 AND HAVE SOLD IT.HENCE I WONT TOUCH IT AGAIN.
I AM NOT LIKE THE AVERAGE RETARD BUY IN TIMES OF SOARING PRICES+LOW INTEREST RATES+GOOD ECONOMY.I BOUGHT WHEN COMMERCIAL SHOPS ARE STAGNANT IN 2005.
THERE ARE 4 LEVELS OF PROPERTY PRICING LEVELS
HIGHEST IS-1)GOOD ECONOMY,SUPER LOW RATES
2)GOOD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES
3)BAD ECONOMY,LOW RATES
4)BAD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES.
GOD BLESS THOSE FOOLS WHO RUSH IN AT THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO
1)what if a financial crisis were to hit asia,will hk/sg have the POLICY "LEEWAY" to tweak interest rates to lessen the crises severity?
2)with inflation so high,surely interest rates must rise to "combat" inflation?
3)why with interest rates lower than 2007 in 2010,why cant hk/sgp (MAJORITY) condominiums rise past their previous highs?why HDB (majority) price has been slowly creeping up?NOTHING TO DO WITH INFLUX OF FOREIGNERS.please go and look at iproperty.com.sg HDB,CONDO pricing charts.HDB PRICES STARTED TO SURGE IN Q2 2010,THE SAME TIME CONDO PRICES STARTED TO COME DOWN.im not talking INDIVIDUAL CONDO PRICES,IM TALKING AVERAGE CONDO PRICES in the whole country.
I CAN SEE COMMENTS THAT ITS THE FOREIGNERS THAT CAUSE HDB PRICES TO GO UP.then why did condo prices start to fall at same time hdb start to surge?SURELY IT CANT BE THAT COINCIDENTAL??
the smart singaporeans are already selling to the foolish singaporeans AND ARE DOWNGRADING TO HDB to PRESERVE THEIR PROFITS,IN EVENT OF A DOWNTURN.SMART PEOPLE DONT NEED LOW INTEREST RATES TO ENTICE THEM INTO BUYING.SMART PEOPLE NEED FOOLISH PEOPLE TO SELL TO.THAT IS WHY DESPITE THE LOW INTEREST RATES,AVERAGE CONDO PRICES CANT SEEM TO EXCEED 2007.
SO GOOD LUCK TO THE HARDCORE CONDO OWNERS,U ALL WONT BE HIT NOW AS SINGAPORE ECONOMY IS STILL HEALTHY,USA STOCKMARKET IS STILL GOING UP IN 2012.BE VERY CAREFUL WHEN SP500 HIT 1900,AND HSI/STI HIT NEAR 2007 MAX.
DONT EVER TELL ME STOCKMARKET HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PROPERTY.IF U THINK LIKE THAT,YOUR WHOLE LIFE WILL BE FUCKED UP.I QUOTE EVIDENCE TO BACK MY STATEMENTS-
1)IF THE STI DIDNT SURGE NEAR 100% IN 5MONTHS FROM MARCH-AUGUST2009,DO YOU THINK PROPERTY WILL BE STABLE,GOING UP?
2)IF STI DIDNT FALL ONLY 20% (FROM 3300LIKE I SAID),DO YOU THINK THE ECONOMY WILL BE ONLY "SLOWING DOWN"??
EVERYTHING IS DICTATED BY THE STOCKMARKET 1st,WE FULLTIME TRADERS ALREADY KNOW WHAT IS IN HAND FOR THE ECONOMY IN NEAR FUTURE.
LIKE I SAID 2011-2014 WILL BE THE PRELUDE TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISES PART2:IT WONT HAPPEN NOW IN 2012.
ASK YOURSELVES-IF THE ECONOMY IN THE FUTURE IS SO GOOD,AND WITH SUCH LOW INTEREST RATES,SHOULD NOT HIGH END CONDO PRICES BE SURGING TO THE ROOF??THE RICH KNOW BETTER THAN THE LAYMEN.
NOTE-I AM NOT INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE HIGH END RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS I DONT EVEN WANT TO STAY HERE TILL I DIE NOR I AM ATTRACTED BY THE SINGAPORE POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS.I AM ONLY INTERESTED IN SINGAPORE COMMERCIAL SHOPS,AND EVEN SO,I WONT BUY IT TILL THERE IS A FULL BLOWN CRISES.I HAVE BOUGHT 1 COMMERCIAL SHOP IN ORCHARD ROAD IN 2005 AND HAVE SOLD IT.HENCE I WONT TOUCH IT AGAIN.
I AM NOT LIKE THE AVERAGE RETARD BUY IN TIMES OF SOARING PRICES+LOW INTEREST RATES+GOOD ECONOMY.I BOUGHT WHEN COMMERCIAL SHOPS ARE STAGNANT IN 2005.
THERE ARE 4 LEVELS OF PROPERTY PRICING LEVELS
HIGHEST IS-1)GOOD ECONOMY,SUPER LOW RATES
2)GOOD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES
3)BAD ECONOMY,LOW RATES
4)BAD ECONOMY,HIGH RATES.
GOD BLESS THOSE FOOLS WHO RUSH IN AT THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO
3JAN2012-I KNOW USA PROPERTY WONT RECOVER SO FAST,LIKE I SAID YEARS AGO.REMEMBER STOCKMARKET 1ST,THEN JOBS THEN PROPERTIES.MAMA MIA--SO MANY MANY GEMS FOR ME TO HANDPICK 10YEARS LATER!!wait for sp500 to break out of 1580 1st then talk ABOUT USA PROPERTIES
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-15-states-with-the-most-underwater-homes-2010-7#idaho-227-of-mortgages-underwater-1
TOP 15 USA STATES WITH UNDERWATER MORTGAGES
15.IDAHO-22.7% MORTGAGES UNDERWATER
14.MARYLAND-22.9%
13.SOUTH DAKOTA-23.8%
12.MISSISIPI-23.8%
11.LOUISIANA-23.8%
10.MAINE-23.8%
9.WYOMING-23.8%
8.WEST VIRGINIA-23.8%
7.VIRGINIA-24.3%
6.GEORGIA-27.8%
5.CALIFORNIA-35.1%
4.MICHIGAN-38.5%
3.FLORIDA-47.8%
2.ARIZONA-51.3%
1.NEVADA-69.9%
TOP 15 USA STATES WITH UNDERWATER MORTGAGES
15.IDAHO-22.7% MORTGAGES UNDERWATER
14.MARYLAND-22.9%
13.SOUTH DAKOTA-23.8%
12.MISSISIPI-23.8%
11.LOUISIANA-23.8%
10.MAINE-23.8%
9.WYOMING-23.8%
8.WEST VIRGINIA-23.8%
7.VIRGINIA-24.3%
6.GEORGIA-27.8%
5.CALIFORNIA-35.1%
4.MICHIGAN-38.5%
3.FLORIDA-47.8%
2.ARIZONA-51.3%
1.NEVADA-69.9%
3JAN2012-THAT IS WHY I SAID-STOCK/PROPERTY ANALYSTS SHOULD NOT GET INTO A JOB BASED ON EDUCATION QUALIFICATIONS ALONE.MANY OF THEM DONT EVEN HAVE INVESTMENT EXPERIENCE.DOES A 1ST CLASS HONOURS GUARANTEE THE ANALYST WILL THINK LIKE AN INVESTOR?MINDSET NEEDS REAL EXPERIENCE NOT DEGREE SCROLL.INVESTMENT ANALYSTS SHOULD HAVE 50% OF ASSETS IN INVESTMENTS BEFORE THEY ARE FIT TO GIVE INVESTMENT ADVICE
Monday, January 2, 2012
Sunday, January 1, 2012
1jan2012-CAN FUCKAMENTALS BE TRUSTED?
DRYSHIPS(usa drybulk) FUNDAMENTALS(cut and paste from yahoo.com)
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 816.79M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 4.92B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 19.23
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2012)1: 3.45
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: -1.35
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.85
Price/Book (mrq): 0.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 5.10
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 9.19
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 3.59%
Operating Margin (ttm): 30.52%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 2.50%
Return on Equity (ttm): 1.46%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 965.30M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.85
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 41.00%
Gross Profit (ttm): 832.31M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 535.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 25.22M
Diluted EPS:0.10
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -56.60%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 398.96M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.98
Total Debt (mrq): 4.50B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 113.65
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.06
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.87
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 432.99M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -1.90B
MERCATOR(asian drybulk) FUNDAMENTALS
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 143.99M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 384.83M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 10.45
Forward P/E (fye Mar 31, 2013)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.98
Price/Book (mrq): 0.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.61
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.58
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31 Mar
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 9.07%
Operating Margin (ttm): 13.59%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 1.88%
Return on Equity (ttm): 3.45%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 147.36M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 0.12
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): -16.90%
Gross Profit (ttm): 82.00M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 58.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 13.37M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.01
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -83.30%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 17.11M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Total Debt (mrq): 264.22M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 67.49
Current Ratio (mrq): 0.63
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.31
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 62.02M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -19.96M
WHY USA DRYBULK CAN CRASH FROM 131USD TO 1.90USD WHEN THE VALUATIONS,PROFITABILITY(EPS,FORWARD P/E,lesser decline in earnings),ARE CLEARLY BETTER THAN ASIAN DRYBULK,MERCATOR(0.76 TO 0.10)??CLEARLY THIS IS A USA "CRISES" WHERE USA WILL EMBARK ON A 16-20YEARS SECULAR BULL MARKET(SP500 BREAK THRU 1580).
HENCE THE LARGER PLUNGE IS "NEEDED" FOR USA DRYBULK SIMPLY BECAUSE USA STOCKMARKET AFTER THE "CRISES" HAS MORE TIME TO GO UP,WHEREAS SG/HK HASN'T A CRISES FOR NEARLY 20YEARS AFTER 1997.ASIAN DRYBULK CANT PLUNGE AS MUCH AS USA DRYBULK DESPITE BEING LOUSIER IN FUNDAMENTALS BECAUSE THIS ALREADY HINT THAT SG/HK WONT START A SECULAR BULL MARKET WITH USA,"NOT ENOUGH TIME" TO PUSH UP TILL THE NEXT ASIAN CRISES PART2.
THAT IS WHY ASIAN DRYBULK LIKE MERCATOR ONLY NEED TO GO UP 7X TO ITS ALLTIME HIGHS(0.77) WHEREAS USA DRYBULK LIKE DRYSHIPS(DESPITE BEING PROFITABLE AND BETTER VALUATIONS) HAVE TO GO UP ABOUT 65X(1.90 TO 131USD).
U JUST ASK YOURSELVES:AINT IT CLEAR WHERE THE NEXT SHOE IS GOING TO DROP?WHY MERCATOR(IN JAN2011)WAS ABOUT 0.30,3X HIGHER THAN ITS MARCH2009 LOWS,BUT DRYSHIPS WAS NEAR ITS MARCH2009 LOWS.
imagine 0.77 drop to 0.10 is serious OR 131usd to 1.90 usd is serious?INDIAN DRYBULK DROP 87% WHEREAS USA DRYBULK DROP 98%!!so from there,the rebound up to their max is very WIDE,7X COMPARED TO 65X.
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 816.79M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 4.92B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 19.23
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2012)1: 3.45
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: -1.35
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.85
Price/Book (mrq): 0.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 5.10
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 9.19
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: Dec 31
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 3.59%
Operating Margin (ttm): 30.52%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 2.50%
Return on Equity (ttm): 1.46%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 965.30M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 2.85
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 41.00%
Gross Profit (ttm): 832.31M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 535.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 25.22M
Diluted EPS:0.10
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -56.60%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 398.96M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.98
Total Debt (mrq): 4.50B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 113.65
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.06
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.87
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 432.99M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -1.90B
MERCATOR(asian drybulk) FUNDAMENTALS
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 143.99M
Enterprise Value (Dec 31, 2011)3: 384.83M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 10.45
Forward P/E (fye Mar 31, 2013)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.98
Price/Book (mrq): 0.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.61
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.58
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31 Mar
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): Sep 30, 2011
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 9.07%
Operating Margin (ttm): 13.59%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 1.88%
Return on Equity (ttm): 3.45%
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 147.36M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 0.12
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): -16.90%
Gross Profit (ttm): 82.00M
EBITDA (ttm)6: 58.48M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 13.37M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 0.01
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -83.30%
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 17.11M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Total Debt (mrq): 264.22M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 67.49
Current Ratio (mrq): 0.63
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.31
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 62.02M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -19.96M
WHY USA DRYBULK CAN CRASH FROM 131USD TO 1.90USD WHEN THE VALUATIONS,PROFITABILITY(EPS,FORWARD P/E,lesser decline in earnings),ARE CLEARLY BETTER THAN ASIAN DRYBULK,MERCATOR(0.76 TO 0.10)??CLEARLY THIS IS A USA "CRISES" WHERE USA WILL EMBARK ON A 16-20YEARS SECULAR BULL MARKET(SP500 BREAK THRU 1580).
HENCE THE LARGER PLUNGE IS "NEEDED" FOR USA DRYBULK SIMPLY BECAUSE USA STOCKMARKET AFTER THE "CRISES" HAS MORE TIME TO GO UP,WHEREAS SG/HK HASN'T A CRISES FOR NEARLY 20YEARS AFTER 1997.ASIAN DRYBULK CANT PLUNGE AS MUCH AS USA DRYBULK DESPITE BEING LOUSIER IN FUNDAMENTALS BECAUSE THIS ALREADY HINT THAT SG/HK WONT START A SECULAR BULL MARKET WITH USA,"NOT ENOUGH TIME" TO PUSH UP TILL THE NEXT ASIAN CRISES PART2.
THAT IS WHY ASIAN DRYBULK LIKE MERCATOR ONLY NEED TO GO UP 7X TO ITS ALLTIME HIGHS(0.77) WHEREAS USA DRYBULK LIKE DRYSHIPS(DESPITE BEING PROFITABLE AND BETTER VALUATIONS) HAVE TO GO UP ABOUT 65X(1.90 TO 131USD).
U JUST ASK YOURSELVES:AINT IT CLEAR WHERE THE NEXT SHOE IS GOING TO DROP?WHY MERCATOR(IN JAN2011)WAS ABOUT 0.30,3X HIGHER THAN ITS MARCH2009 LOWS,BUT DRYSHIPS WAS NEAR ITS MARCH2009 LOWS.
imagine 0.77 drop to 0.10 is serious OR 131usd to 1.90 usd is serious?INDIAN DRYBULK DROP 87% WHEREAS USA DRYBULK DROP 98%!!so from there,the rebound up to their max is very WIDE,7X COMPARED TO 65X.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
31DEC2011-PLEASE NOTE--
31DEC2011-MY BELOW PREDICTION WILL BE TRUE ONLY IF SSE DOES NOT MAKE A NEW LOW(<2130) by end JAN2012 if that happens,that means SSE will hit 3000,3200 by NOV/DECEMBER 2012,FOLLOW THE ALTERNATING NOV/DEC-APRIL-NOV/DEC-APRIL PATTERN
Friday, December 30, 2011
30dec2011-TALE OF 3 DRY BULK SHIPPERS-GO FOR DRY BULK SHIPPERS WHICH ARE STILL PROFITABLE AMID BDI PLUNGE 80%
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Monday, December 19, 2011
19th december 2011-SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 3RD WAVE(5WAVE UP) IN 5-3-5 WAVE FORMING
5 WAVE up-THE MEGA BULLRUN TILL 2007,
3WAVE downTHE CORRECTION FROM 2007-2008
5WAVE UP,FROM NOW TILL AROUND 2015(SYNCHRONIZING WITH HANGSENG 32K)
in this 5wave up,WE ARE ASSUMING
1.2180S IS THE FINAL LOW,NO MORE THAN THAT AS 0.382 X 1664-3476 = 2356,AS WAVE 2 IN ELLIOTT 5 WAVE UP CANT BE MORE THAN 61,8% OF WAVE1.2180S IS NOT SO FAR AWAY FROM 2350s.BUT IF IT FALLS TO BELOW THE 23.6%,2091,then THE ELLIOT 5WAVE UP PATTERN WILL NOT HAPPEN
IN WAVE 3,ELLIOTT THEORY STATES THAT IT WILL BE THE LONGEST WAVE UP,PEAKING AT AROUND 1.618 X 1.8K=2.9K.WE ADD 2.9K TO 2.2K WE WILL GET THE 78.6% FIBO OF 6120-1664 RANGE.
WAVE 5 WILL PEAK AT THE SAME HIGHS AS 2007=6120 AND IT WILL BE THE START OF ASIA CRISES.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
17dec2011-3RD HUMP IS STILL FORMING IN SP500,WITH SHANGHAI REVERSING,BACK TO 1ST HUMP SCENARIO
LET ME DO THE HONOURS OF SUMMARIZING AGAIN THE SP500 10WEEKS UP PATTERN AND COMBINE WITH SHANGHAI COMPOSITE AND HANGSENG,
1ST 10WEEKS UP PATTERN(DATE MEANS WEEK STARTING DD/MM/YEAR)
MAR09 2009-MAY4TH 2009
SP500 +40%(666-930)
SSE +27% (2066-2625)
HSI +54% (11300-17400)
2ND 10WEEKS UP PATTERN JUL13 2009-SEPT14 2009
SP500 +23% (869-1069)
SSE -4.4% (3098-2962)
HSI +22% (17700-21600)
3RD 10WEEKS UP PATTERN 2NOV 2009-JAN4 2010
SP500 +10.5% (1036-1144)
SSE +6.7% (2995-3196)
HSI +3% (21700-22300)
4TH 10WEEKS UP PATTERN FEB15 2010-APRIL19 2010
SP500 +13% (1075-1217)
SSE -1.2% (3018-2983)
HSI +5% (20200-21200)(ACTUALLY HANGSENG TURNED DOWN IN THE WEEK BEFORE,THE WEEK STARTING APRIL 12TH 2010 AND HAD DROPPED 5% FROM 22300s,HENCE THE GAINS ARE REDUCED BY 5%,initially the gains are +10%.IN LINE WITH SP500)
5th 10WEEKS UP PATTERN august30 2010-NOV1 2010
SP500 +15% (1065-1225)
SSE +20% (2610-3129)
HSI +20% (20600-24.9K)
6th 10WEEKS UP PATTERN NOV29 2010-FEB14 2011
SP500 +13% (1189-1344)
SSE +1% (2871-2899)
HSI +3% (22900-23600)
ALL TIMINGS(10WEEKS UP,SOMETIMES 9,12 BUT MAJORITY 10)AND VALUES ARE APPROXIMATES.
NEXT COMES THE CONSOLIDATIONS OF SP500
1.MAY11 2009-JUL6 2009(2MONTHS)
SP500 -5.3%(929-879)
SSE +19%(2625-3113)
HSI +2% (17.4K-17.7K)
2.SEPT21 2009-0CT26 2009(1MONTH)
SP500 -3%(1069-1036)
SSE +6.8%(2962-3164)
HSI +1% (21600-21750)
3.JAN11 2010-FEB8 2010(1MONTH)
SP500 -9%(1144-1044)
SSE -5.6%(3196-3018)
HSI -9% (22300-20300)
4.APR26 2010-AUG23 2010(4MONTHS)
SP500 -13%(1217-1064)
SSE -11%(2983-2642)
HSI -3+(-5)=-8% (17.4K-17.7K)(HSI ALREADY STARTED COMING DOWN ON WEEK STARTING APR12 2010,5% DOWN
5.NOV8 2010-NOV22 2010(0.5MONTH)
SP500 -3%(1225-1189)
SSE -8.5%(3129-2871)
HSI -8% (24.9K-22.9K)
6.FEB21 2011-NOV21 2011(9MONTHS)
SP500 -14%(1343-1158)
SSE -16%(2827-2380)
HSI -25% (23.6K-17.7K)
PLEASE NOTE WHY HANGSENG FELL MORE THAN SHANGHAI AND SP500 BY 10+%???
BECOZ HANGSENG "OWES" THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE 10+% BY NOT FACTORING IN THE FALL IN THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IN THE 2ND 10WEEKS UP IN THE SP500 PERIOD.DURING THAT 2ND 10WEEKS UP,HANGSENG IGNORED THE FALL IN SHANGHAI FROM 3.4K TO 3.1K AS SHANGHAI FELL FROM 3.1K APPROX TO 2962.THIS IS CALLED "PLAYING CATCH UP"
STOCKMARKET DONT OCCUR BY LUCK.IT IS UP TO THE INVESTOR OR TRADER TO FIND OUT THE TRUTHS.
EVEN IF SP500 3RD HUMP DOES NOT FORM TO 1500-1520 BY NEXT AUGUST2012,SP500 WILL ONLY FALL TO 1000 TO "CREATE" A DOUBLE BOTTOM SAME AS THE EURO CRISIS 2010.THERE WILL NOT BE ANY LONGTERM BEAR MARKET UNTIL 2015-2016.I MEAN BY LONGTERM BEAR ISNT JUST A 30% FALL IN >1YEAR FROM MARCH 2011 COUNTING.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
7DEC2011-HOW AMAZING CASE SHILLER GAINS AND HSI GAINS IN 2000-2007 ARE approx SAME 100%!!
CASE SHILLER NOMINAL PRICE INDEX UP FROM 2000-2007 OF 100% APPROXIMATELY,ISNT THAT THE SAME RATE AS HANGSENG,STI UP FROM 2000?
how funny the sp500 HIT DOUBLE TOP IN 2007 IS THE SAME TIME CASE SHILLER HIT PEAK,HIGHER THAN 2000PEAK AND ALSO SAME TIME AS ASIA STOCKMARKET HIT PEAK??????????
u add 7/8years(start of 2000 in stockmarket peak to usa property peak in 2007 ) to end of 2007 wont u get 2015/2016 approx in asia property??2015/2016 will be the repeat of 1981-82 whereby sp500 will only plunge 20+% to retest 1580 and bounce up to gain 13-14X JUST LIKE 1982-2000(110 TO 1500) BUT HSI/STI will plunge 70-80+% to CONFIRM SECULAR BEARMARKET started in 2007.
HENCE I FIRMLY BELIEVE ASIA PROPERTY WILL BE THE CATALYST TO "CAUSE" ASIA STOCKMARKETS TO CONFIRM THEY HAVE ENTERED SECULAR BEARMARKETS IN 2007. WE TRADERS CAN ONLY CONFIRM A MARKET IS IN SECULAR BEARMARKET ONLY AT THE 2ND TIME IT TESTS THE ALL TIME HIGHS,E.G. IN 2007,SP500 HIT 1580 AND PLUNGE DOWN CONFIRMING USA STOCKMARKET IS IN SECULAR BEAR SINCE YEAR 2000.
please refer to case shiller versus sp500 versus hangseng versus sti to confirm what i am saying.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
4dec2011-the movements of 3BROTHERS from now to start of secular bull for usa
IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER:1.HSI HIT 25K WITH SP500 HIT 1580 AROUND 2014s,sti to hit 3400s.wasting time
2.sp500 breakout of 110 in 1980s,went to 1981 of 140 and also dropping to retest 110 in september 1981.(drop of -20%).hence im calling for a repeat of 1980-1981 whereby sp500 will breakout of 1580 to 1900s,2000(gain of 27%.hangseng will just retest 32k from 25K,sti will go to 4.5K from 3.4K
3.THEN THE ASIA CRISES PART 2 WILL THEN EMERGE WITH SP500 dropping only 20+% to retest 1570s again JUST LIKE SEPTEMBER 1981 BUT HK,SG WILL PLUNGE 70-80%,ASIAN CRISES DEJAVU
4. HSI WILL PLUNGE TO AS LOW AS 6.5K,(-80% from 32K approx)the 1998 dejavu lowest point,sti will follow suit to 800(-80% from 4.5k approx).ASIA WILL THEN BE TRAPPED IN ITS OWN SECULAR BEAR MARKET FOR THE NEXT 16-20YEARS.
5.then from 6.5K hsi,800 in sti,BOTH WILL GO UP TO THEIR 2007 HIGHEST POINT(5-6X) WHEREAS USA will touch 1570 and go up 13-14X(a repeat of 1981-2000 SECULAR BULL MARKET IN USA from sp500 at 110 to 1500).
NOW COME THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTION-WHY HK/SGP WILL GO UP ONLY APPROX HALF OF USA?????(13-14X compared with 6-7X)
YOU ALL MUST NOT FORGET HSI,STI DOUBLED in 2000-2007 WHEREAS SP500 WAS STAGNANT THROUGHOUT THESE SECULAR BEAR MARKET YEARS IN THE USA.THAT IS WHY YOU MUST DIVIDE THE GROWTH RATE OF SP500 BY 2 TO DERIVE THE GROWTH RATE OF HSI,STI.
STRANGELY, THEY MATCH TO A TEE.SP500 WILL REPEAT 13-14X GAINS FROM 1570 TO 23000,WHEREAS HSI WILL ONLY BOUNCE from 6K,800 6-7X UP TO 35K,STI TO 4.5K
I USED PAST TRENDS IN SP500+USA PROPERTY STOCKS BULLISH TREND+HK/SGP PROPERTY STOCKS BEARISH TREND+AN EXACT OF THE 1966-1982 SECULAR BEARMARKET IN SP500(SO FAR TILL 2011 IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY VERY CLOSE REPLICA) TO ANALYSE.I USE BOTH FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS TO SUPPORT MY VIEW.
USA HERE I COME BABY!!
4dec 2011-everything falls into place like jigsaw pieces
from iproperty.com.sg-(they claim to be singapore's no.1 property website)
HDB(mass market) started rising only when condos start to go down-i already told people that HDB is a laggard.
as u can see for yourselves from that website,GCBs(landed) rose 100% from 60 to 120,condominiums also rose 100% from 70 to 140,HDB WILL LIKEWISE RISE 100% from 100 to 200.hence there is still room for a 10% rise in mass market HDB due to condominiums mood dampened.
I DIDNT TALK WITHOUT PROOF-thats why i say asia property crisis will start from the SALARY RICH,ASSET POOR CLASS,THE CONDOMINIUM CLASS.but it wont be anytime soon,as singapore economy is still strong,HDB still hasnt rise to 200+ in the index.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, USA FOMC HAS NOT RAISE RATES.ONCE THEY RAISE RATES, IT WILL BE ANOTHER NAIL IN THE COFFIN FOR CONDOMINIUM OWNERS AND MORE WILL DOWNGRADE TO HDB,causing HDB to rise to 200+ in the index.AND THAT WILL BE THE FINALE OF ASIA PROPERTY BOOM AS A WHOLE,starting the asia crises PART 2
4december2011-ANOTHER PROOF TO SUPPORT MY VIEW ASIA RESIDENTIAL WILL BE NEXT SHOE TO DROP IN 2016
let us compare usa property stocks and asia property stocks
prices as at 2dec2011
USA industrial/office REITS:BXP:boston properties:2007max:120+,now 94
VS
capitalmalls,C38u.si:2007max:4.30s,now 1.80s
USA RETAIL REITS:CBL:2007max:50.now 14
VS
capitalmalls(also doing retail in singapore,eg. bugis junction,plazasingapura)-C38U.si 2007 max 4.30s, now 1.80s
USA RESIDENTIAL REITS:HME:home properties:max 2006:$65,now $54
VS
CApitaland C31.si 2007 max:8+,now 2.60s
kepland K17.si 2007 max:9.90,now 2.60
CDL,C09.si:2007max:18,now 10
SHK,16.HK:2007 max:170s,now 90s
Henderson land:2007max:80,now 38
AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS USA RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY STOCKS WENT TO 2007HIGHS,THEN DROP DOWN recently(above 2010highs),BUT ASIA RESIDENTIAL STOCKS IN 2010 HIGHS IS MUCH LOWER THAN 2007MAX.
USA DIVERSIFIED REITS:
CLP-2007max:50,now 19
VS
KREIT,keppel reit,2007max:3.50s,now 0.86
AS YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELVES ASIA RESIDENTIAL SECTOR STOCKS ARE HARDEST HIT,MUCH MORE THAN USA RESIDENTIAL STOCKS.USA RETAIL REITS AND ASIA RETAIL REITS ARE THE SAME HARD HIT AS BOTH ASIA AND WESTERN ARE FRAUGHT WITH DIFFERENT TROUBLES-ASIA IS SKYHIGH RENTALS BUT USA IS HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT.ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS RETAIL SHOULD BE THE LAST TO RECOVER AS EMPLOYMENT IS A LAGGARD INDICATOR.
4th december 2011-HOW AMAZING THE RATIOS TELL A STORY!!
REMEMBER MY EARLIER TARGETS OF SP500 GOING TO 1900S,STI 4500, HSI ONLY TO 32K??
what do those ratios mean??
remember hongkong is a property crazy place,much crazier than singapore,PLUS THIER HKD FELL BECAUSE OF USD PEG,causing HK PROPERTIES TO BE WORSE THAN SINGAPORE PROPERTY BUBBLE.
lets look at CAPITALAND, a blue chip company listed on SGX,a sti component
and compare with sti
(ALL VALUES ARE APPROX AS IM LAZY TO CHECK THE EXACT)]
STI 2004,2007,2010,NOW----1.7K,3.9K,3K,2.8K
VERSUS
CAPITALAND 2004,2007,2010,NOW--1.50,8+,4+,2.60
just as i predictED in my previous post,CAPITALAND TO GO BACK TO 2010 MAX,AROUND 4.50S WILL BE THE TIME WHEN STI GO TO 3.9K OR EVEN HIGHER TO 4.5K.
WHY 4.5K???
lets see for yourselves how "telling" the ratios are
capitaland 2.60s to 4.50s approx 70%
HSI 19K to 32K-approx 70%
STI 2.7K to 4.5K--approx 70%
SP500 1.1K to 1.9K--approx 70%
BY JUST THE RATIOS,WE NOW KNOW WHY ASIA PROPERTY STOCKS FIRST PLUNGE MORE THAN MAIN INDEX IN 2011.IT IS JUST TO CREATE SPACE TO RETURN TO 2010 LEVELS. IT ALSO TELLS US WHERE THE NEXT CRISIS WILL COME FROM-from asia property bubble!!
I PREDICT WITH FACTS,NOT ANYHOW FEEL,BULLSHIT WITHOUT FACTS.WHEN THINGS HAPPEN SO COINCIDENTALLY--U KNOW IT IS ALL PREMADE,PRE PLANNED BEFOREHAND!!
HOW CAN ANYONE BUY EXPENSIVE PROPERTIES WITHOUT LEARNING THE STOCKMARKET FIRST?????????????
Saturday, December 3, 2011
3rd december2012-CUT AND PASTE FROM CNBC:GUPPY PREDICTION OF SHANGHAI EXACTLY IN LINE WITH WORLD EQUITY REBOUND
Shanghai Index Could Rally to 2,760 After Soft Landing: Charts
Published: Tuesday, 29 Nov 2011 | 6:57 PM ET Text Size By: Daryl Guppy
A weakening China economy is a further weight on global indexes. The current global fall may have been started by the euro zone collapse but many have looked for resilience in the China economy and China demand to help lift other economies. Some counties like Australia have built an entire economic recovery strategy based on assumptions about continued China growth.
The key China question revolves around the ability of the government to manage a soft landing. Although this is seen as evidence of a command economy, and therefore doomed to failure according to some, the policy initiatives are not much different in approach to those used in Europe with government sponsored intervention, and in America, with government sponsored rescue packages.
The Shanghai Index[.SSEC 2360.66 -26.20 (-1.1%) ] shows a steady decline towards 2,300. This is a slowly moving downtrend and quite a contrast to the rapid collapses seen in the DOW[.DJIA 12019.42 -0.61 (0%) ], the DAX [.GDAXI 6080.68 44.80 (+0.74%) ] and the FTSE [.FTSE 5552.29 62.95 (+1.15%) ]. This slow downtrend confirms a soft landing for China, although this does not preclude a bump or two. The Shanghai Index is developing a triple bottom rebound pattern. The small double bottom, shown as points A and B, lead to a successful rebound. The height of this pattern is approximately 118 index points.
The target for this pattern is calculated by measuring the distance from the lows to the peak of the rally and projecting this value upwards to give a target of 2,548. This target was not achieved because the resistance from the long-term downtrend line was too powerful. The market retreated from the long-term downtrend line.
This retreat shows the long-term downtrend line is a very significant resistance feature. In the future, a close above this downtrend line will be a very powerful trend reversal signal. This is a weekly close seen on a weekly chart.
The strongest support level is near 2,300. The 2,300 level acted as a support level in 2010 July and as resistance and support in 2009 February and March. A fall and rebound from support near 2,300 creates a triple bottom pattern.
Target calculations for a successful triple bottom pattern are calculated using the same method of measuring the height of the central rebound rally.
The third rebound point is somewhere near point C. If support near 2,300 is successful, then the distance to the peak of the most recent rally in November at 2,530 is approximately 230 index points. This value is projected above the peak of the rally at 2,530 and gives a long-term target near 2,760.
The wider the separation between the rebound lows in the double and triple bottom pattern then stronger the pattern rebound. The first double bottom pattern between points A and B developed over 9 days. This suggested a weak breakout pattern. The time between the first point in the triple bottom pattern at point A and the possible third point in the triple bottom pattern at point C is already more than 7 weeks. This makes the triple bottom pattern much stronger and this increases the potential for a stronger downtrend breakout.
The Shanghai Index has the potential to develop a triple bottom reversal pattern within the context of a broad consolidation base. This combination of features suggests a soft landing and a recovery.
Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders –www.guppytraders.com . He is a regular guest on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe.
If you would like Daryl to chart a specific stock, commodity or currency, please write to us at ChartingAsia@cnbc.com. We welcome all questions, comments and requests.
CNBC assumes no responsibility for any losses, damages or liability whatsoever suffered or incurred by any person, resulting from or attributable to the use of the information published on this site. User is using this information at his/her sole risk.
© 2011 CNBC, Inc. All Rights Reserved
IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER
1)now,2011 end condominiums sentiment dampened by lending curbs,PROPERTY DEVELOPER STOCKS LIKE CAPITALAND -30%,KEPLAND-50% FROM 2010DEC TILL NOW ALREADY HINTED THE ROAD FORWARD FOR PROPERTY WILL BE DARK AND GLOOMY.those who bought CONDOMINIUMS,SALARY RICH,ASSET POOR,AFTER THE FOMC MAINTAINED LOW RATES WILL ALL BE "BURNT IN THE CAULDRON" when asia stockmarket gets entrenched in its own secular bear market.
U THINK CAPITALAND,A BLUE CHIP FALL 30% IN 2011 FOR NO REASON??CAPITALAND-30+%,KEPLAND-50%,STI ONLY -20% HINTS TO U WHERE THE NEXT SHOE WILL DROP
2)us economy is expected to grow faster than asia as JP,MORGAN STANLEY raise USA GDP FORECASTS while asia GDP FORECASTS ARE LOWERED ALREADY GIVE U HINTS THAT THE NEXT SHOE TO DROP WILL BE FROM ASIA.
3)us economy recovers faster than expected,people now instead of flocking to asia,now flock to usa for employment.asia condominiums,NOT the mass market will be experiencing GHOST TOWN STATUS.
4)US FOMC RAISE RATES AFTER ECONOMY RECOVER,PUTTING A DOUBLE WHAMMY ON ASIA CONDOMINUIM OWNERS.hk,sgp CENTRAL BANKS follow FOMC raise rates(whats new?)
5)ASIA CONDOMINIUM OWNERS START TO FEEL THE PINCH AS INTEREST IS INCREASING WITH SOME BUYING MORE THAN 1 PROPERTY FACE THE RISK OF GHOST TOWN(NO RENTAL INCOME).
6)ASIA CONDOMINIUM OWNERS START TO DOWNGRADE TO MASS MARKET HOUSING,EG IN SINGAPORE,MANY WILL START TO BUY HDB FLATS,PUSHING UP HDB PRICES,PUSHING DOWN RENTAL YIELDS(AS NOW GOOD LOCATION HDB RENTAL YIELDS ARE AS HIGH AS 6%!!!)
7)asia stockmarket hit 2007PEAK,and start CRASHING 60-70% WHEREAS USA SP500 AFTER BREAKING OUT OF 1580,WILL GO TO 1900S,BEFORE DROPPING ONLY 30% IN RESPONSE TO ASIA PLUNGE
8)3-6MONTHS LATER,ASIA ECONOMIES FACE THE REALITY OF GDP TURNING NEGATIVE,RECESSIONS LOOMING AND JOB CUTS WILL BE ON THE RISE
9)ASIA CONDOMINIUMS WILL TUMBLE LIKE DOMINOES!!BUNGALOWS AND MASS MARKET WONT BE AS AFFECTED AS CONDOMINIUMS,AS MAJORITY OF CONDOMINIUMS ARE OWNED BY SALARY RICH BUT ASSET POOR PEOPLE.
THIS IS MY SCENARIO.LETS SEE WHETHER IT WILL COME TRUE.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
3RD HUMP IN SP500 STARTED BUT NEED HSI CONFIRMATION TO DOUBLE CONFIRM
SP500 HAS STARTED THE 3RD HUMP,
PREVIOUS 2 HUMPS DURATION:
1ST HUMP:8MONTHS LOWS TO HIGH WEEK STARTING JULY13 2009- WEEK STARTING APRIL 19 2010(8MONTHS,TOTAL POINTS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS:875-1219 TOTAL 350POINTS APPROX
2ND HUMP:9MONTHS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS-WEEK STARTING AUG30 2010 TO WEEK STARTING APRIL 25 2010 (TOTAL 9MONTHS)
TOTAL POINTS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS:1040-1370 TOTAL 330POINTS APPROX
NOW 3RD HUMP WILL TAKE US TO 1160+(330-350)=1500 BY JULY/AUGUST 2012
PREVIOUS 2 HUMPS STARTED THE 10WEEEKS UPTREND ONLY AFTER FALLING BACK TO ACHIEVE A NEAR DOUBLE BOTTOM FROM THE PREVIOUS LOWS
EG.1ST HUMP STARTED AFTER FALLING TO RETEST THE MAY2009 LOWS
2ND HUMP STARTED AFTER FALLING TO nearly RETEST THE WEEK STARTING JUNE 2B 2010 LOWS
3RD HUMP STARTS NOW THIS WEEK,WEEK STARTING 28NOV 2011, AFTER NEAR RETEST AUGUST 2011 LOWS
BUT SAYING ALL THESE STILL NEED THE HANGSENG TO "COOPERATE" BY BREAKING OUT OF 20K INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS formation
ONLY AFTER HSI BREAK OUT OF 20K SUCCESSFULLY,THEN I DARE TO SAY 100% THAT IT IS THE START OF THE 3RD HUMP TO 1.5K IN SP500!!
I AM WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION IN THE HANGSENG OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A ONE WAY DOWN TO CONTINE THE DESCENDING BROADENING WEDGE FORMATION TO 15K
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
15nov2011-sp500 to hit 1570 early2015,1900 by 2015end to mid2016.difference is asia will START secular bear market,and USA will start a secular bull
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
please observe the 1966-1982 consolidation period in sp500
LOWEST OF 1970S DROP WAS JULY1970 70.0,HENCE WE FIND OUT THAT IN 1966 OCTOBER 72.2(NEAREST)
1974OCTOBER,SP500 HIT LOWEST60.96,lower than 1970july lowest(reminiscent of 2007lowest lower than 2002 lowest)
hence:CONCLUDE:4YEARS TO NEXT LOW
DECEMBER1968-SP500 HIT 109.37 TOP
feb1973-sp500 hit 121.74 top
sept1978-sp500 hit 109
feb1980-sp500 hit 120 and breakout in 1980
conclude:as 1966-1980s 109 was the right and left shoulder max value before the headshoulders failed in 1980,we take 5years from 1968-1973-1978
LETS OBSERVE THE CURRENT CONSOLIDATION BAND
mar2000-sp500 max was 1552
october2007-sp500 max was 1576
lowest was in october 2002 was 768
lowest was in 2009 march was THE INFAMOUS 666
VERY MANIPULATED RIGHT???MARCH2000-OCT 2002(DOWN),OCT2002-OCTOBER2007(UP),OCTOBER2007-MARCH2009(DOWN)
hence we take 768 as the starting value and we see which was the earliest time sp500 hit 768,nov1996,this nov1996 will be treated the cut off point for the HORIZONTAL BAND FORMATION OF A SECULAR BEAR
we see an UNCANNY resemblance with 1966 band
from 768 in nov 1996- 2002october 768 was a total of SIX years,add to 2002,we will approx then get our march 2009 lowest(resembled the 1975 period when it went lower)
hence we evaluate the top:MARCH 2000 1552,OCTOBER2007 1576(SPACING OF 7.5YEARS)ADD THAT 7.5YEARS TO OCTOBER2007,WE WILL GET OCTOBER2014-MARCH2015 WHEN SP500 WILL RETURN TO REVISIT 1570
strange indeed!!!!!!!!!
1966-1980 HIGH TO HIGHS 5-5
lows to lows:4-4
CURRENTLY:sp500 high to highs:7.5-7.5??
lows to lows:6-6
VERY WELL PLANNED!!LOWS ADD 2,TOP ADD APPROX 2
PLUS IF U MULTIPLY 60%TO 19500=31000(19500 TO 31000),YOU WILL FIND OUT THAT SP500 IF MULTIPLIED BY 1.6 FROM 14NOV2011 VALUE WILL GIVE EXACTLY 1900-1940.
EVERYTHING TALLY FOR SP500 TO BREAK 1576 IN 2014-2015,(NOV1980,SP500 HIT 140 AFTER BREAKING OUT OF 120 IN FEB1980,RETESTED 120 IN OCT1982,AND THERE SHE GOES LIKE A ROCKET!!)go to 1900 by 2015 end AND WILL FOLLOW 1980-1982 STYLE OF DROPPING BACK TO RETEST THE BREAKOUT POINT OF 1576
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
please observe the 1966-1982 consolidation period in sp500
LOWEST OF 1970S DROP WAS JULY1970 70.0,HENCE WE FIND OUT THAT IN 1966 OCTOBER 72.2(NEAREST)
1974OCTOBER,SP500 HIT LOWEST60.96,lower than 1970july lowest(reminiscent of 2007lowest lower than 2002 lowest)
hence:CONCLUDE:4YEARS TO NEXT LOW
DECEMBER1968-SP500 HIT 109.37 TOP
feb1973-sp500 hit 121.74 top
sept1978-sp500 hit 109
feb1980-sp500 hit 120 and breakout in 1980
conclude:as 1966-1980s 109 was the right and left shoulder max value before the headshoulders failed in 1980,we take 5years from 1968-1973-1978
LETS OBSERVE THE CURRENT CONSOLIDATION BAND
mar2000-sp500 max was 1552
october2007-sp500 max was 1576
lowest was in october 2002 was 768
lowest was in 2009 march was THE INFAMOUS 666
VERY MANIPULATED RIGHT???MARCH2000-OCT 2002(DOWN),OCT2002-OCTOBER2007(UP),OCTOBER2007-MARCH2009(DOWN)
hence we take 768 as the starting value and we see which was the earliest time sp500 hit 768,nov1996,this nov1996 will be treated the cut off point for the HORIZONTAL BAND FORMATION OF A SECULAR BEAR
we see an UNCANNY resemblance with 1966 band
from 768 in nov 1996- 2002october 768 was a total of SIX years,add to 2002,we will approx then get our march 2009 lowest(resembled the 1975 period when it went lower)
hence we evaluate the top:MARCH 2000 1552,OCTOBER2007 1576(SPACING OF 7.5YEARS)ADD THAT 7.5YEARS TO OCTOBER2007,WE WILL GET OCTOBER2014-MARCH2015 WHEN SP500 WILL RETURN TO REVISIT 1570
strange indeed!!!!!!!!!
1966-1980 HIGH TO HIGHS 5-5
lows to lows:4-4
CURRENTLY:sp500 high to highs:7.5-7.5??
lows to lows:6-6
VERY WELL PLANNED!!LOWS ADD 2,TOP ADD APPROX 2
PLUS IF U MULTIPLY 60%TO 19500=31000(19500 TO 31000),YOU WILL FIND OUT THAT SP500 IF MULTIPLIED BY 1.6 FROM 14NOV2011 VALUE WILL GIVE EXACTLY 1900-1940.
EVERYTHING TALLY FOR SP500 TO BREAK 1576 IN 2014-2015,(NOV1980,SP500 HIT 140 AFTER BREAKING OUT OF 120 IN FEB1980,RETESTED 120 IN OCT1982,AND THERE SHE GOES LIKE A ROCKET!!)go to 1900 by 2015 end AND WILL FOLLOW 1980-1982 STYLE OF DROPPING BACK TO RETEST THE BREAKOUT POINT OF 1576
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
Saturday, September 24, 2011
24sept2011-NEXT WEEK-starting 26th sept 2011 will be start of 10weeks up in usmkt and 3 weeks up in hangseng
why i say this?
REASONS:
1)the manipulation pattern in timing(round number) and points same as june 2010 euro "crises".except that some parts are different,eg.the drop FROM TOP TO LOWEST takes 2 months from may 2010 whereas the drop from may2011 takes 3MONTHS.
2)sp500 dropped a total of ard 100points this week to lows of 1114,same as THOSE FOUR WEEKS in july2010 where sp500 dropped from 1129 to 1039
3)STI ,the only developed country stock index is experiencing its FIRST ever 20% BEARMARKET technical definition since march 2009.80% multiply 3312=2650!!!
I SMSed ALL my friends in feb2011-"THOSE WHO BUY FROM ME NOW IN STI 3.2K WILL BE SELLING TO ME IN PANIC AND FEAR AT STI 2650"
4)hangseng pattern about to start 3 weeks up (SAME PATTERN from feb7 2011 to march 17 lowest base formation of 1500points 22500-24000 BUT hsi went lower below the 22500 base to 22123 lowest AND FROM THERE IT STARTED A MEGA 3 WEEKS RALLY TO 24500(A MEGA 2400POINTS RALLY!!)
HISTORY WILL REPEAT AS HANGSENG FOR 24 WEEKS SINCE THE LAST 3 WEEKS RALLY has not had any mega 3 weeks rally.
5)august 2010-sp500 went from 1039 to 1220,SAME as NOW IF U PROJECT UPWARDS:sp500 break out of 1200 will mean 1300 since base is 100points(200points as sp500 in june2010 1010-1220)and the next retracement after USMKT 10weeks up leg is around 40points,will bounce off the 1260 HEAD AND SHOULDERS BREAKDOWN NECKLINE
6)VIX DIDNT GO HIGHER
7)USD INDEX MEET THE TECHNICAL TARGET OF 78+(EXACTLY $2 FROM THE BREAKOUT POINT OF 74-76BASE)
8)now is exactly like the mar09 final bottom.LETS RECALL,mar09-hsi above oct08 lows,sti at oct08lows,sp500 10% lower than oct 08 lows VS now-sti,sp500 AT BASE LOWS 2700 AND 1100 whereas HANGSENG became the culprit to go around 10% lower that the 19300 closing
HANGSENG SHOULD RETEST 21000 THE SAME WAY THAT HANGSENG "BREAK DOWN" FROM 22500 TO GO TO 22100 TO REBOUND STRONGLY TO 24K IN FEB-APRIL 2011
MEGA TIP:1)enter monday morning BUT wait for FRIDAY NONSENSE(as hangseng collapse(mean retrace much of week's gains or make week negative) at either 10am,or 3pm friday for SIX consecutive fridays starting aug19 2011
2)CHECK FOR HSI NEXT WEEK CANDLEBODY(weekly candlebody MUST HAVE >400 POINTS TO COMMENCE START OF A NEW LEG UP IN HSI AND USMKT)
please note:candlebody DOESNT INCLUDE MONDAY GAP UP AMOUNT
EVERYTHING MATCHES TO A TEE
I PROVIDE 8 FACTS AND NOT JUST "FEELINGS".IM ALWAYS PROUD TO BE A PROFESSIONAL FULLTIME TRADER
REASONS:
1)the manipulation pattern in timing(round number) and points same as june 2010 euro "crises".except that some parts are different,eg.the drop FROM TOP TO LOWEST takes 2 months from may 2010 whereas the drop from may2011 takes 3MONTHS.
2)sp500 dropped a total of ard 100points this week to lows of 1114,same as THOSE FOUR WEEKS in july2010 where sp500 dropped from 1129 to 1039
3)STI ,the only developed country stock index is experiencing its FIRST ever 20% BEARMARKET technical definition since march 2009.80% multiply 3312=2650!!!
I SMSed ALL my friends in feb2011-"THOSE WHO BUY FROM ME NOW IN STI 3.2K WILL BE SELLING TO ME IN PANIC AND FEAR AT STI 2650"
4)hangseng pattern about to start 3 weeks up (SAME PATTERN from feb7 2011 to march 17 lowest base formation of 1500points 22500-24000 BUT hsi went lower below the 22500 base to 22123 lowest AND FROM THERE IT STARTED A MEGA 3 WEEKS RALLY TO 24500(A MEGA 2400POINTS RALLY!!)
HISTORY WILL REPEAT AS HANGSENG FOR 24 WEEKS SINCE THE LAST 3 WEEKS RALLY has not had any mega 3 weeks rally.
5)august 2010-sp500 went from 1039 to 1220,SAME as NOW IF U PROJECT UPWARDS:sp500 break out of 1200 will mean 1300 since base is 100points(200points as sp500 in june2010 1010-1220)and the next retracement after USMKT 10weeks up leg is around 40points,will bounce off the 1260 HEAD AND SHOULDERS BREAKDOWN NECKLINE
6)VIX DIDNT GO HIGHER
7)USD INDEX MEET THE TECHNICAL TARGET OF 78+(EXACTLY $2 FROM THE BREAKOUT POINT OF 74-76BASE)
8)now is exactly like the mar09 final bottom.LETS RECALL,mar09-hsi above oct08 lows,sti at oct08lows,sp500 10% lower than oct 08 lows VS now-sti,sp500 AT BASE LOWS 2700 AND 1100 whereas HANGSENG became the culprit to go around 10% lower that the 19300 closing
HANGSENG SHOULD RETEST 21000 THE SAME WAY THAT HANGSENG "BREAK DOWN" FROM 22500 TO GO TO 22100 TO REBOUND STRONGLY TO 24K IN FEB-APRIL 2011
MEGA TIP:1)enter monday morning BUT wait for FRIDAY NONSENSE(as hangseng collapse(mean retrace much of week's gains or make week negative) at either 10am,or 3pm friday for SIX consecutive fridays starting aug19 2011
2)CHECK FOR HSI NEXT WEEK CANDLEBODY(weekly candlebody MUST HAVE >400 POINTS TO COMMENCE START OF A NEW LEG UP IN HSI AND USMKT)
please note:candlebody DOESNT INCLUDE MONDAY GAP UP AMOUNT
EVERYTHING MATCHES TO A TEE
I PROVIDE 8 FACTS AND NOT JUST "FEELINGS".IM ALWAYS PROUD TO BE A PROFESSIONAL FULLTIME TRADER
Friday, September 2, 2011
hsi 3weeks up pattern
1)dec 27 2010 hsi open to week starting 10th january 2011 close total:1730 points
BUT TOTAL GAINS FROM last friday before week starting was only 1450
candlebody respective was 482,551,568
2)week starting march 21-week starting 4april:open to close:total 1995
TOTAL GAINS ARE: 2096
CANDLEBODY was 758,687,479
so from 19582 will hsi embark on THE THIRD 3WEEKS consecutive up pattern??
u add approx 1500-2000 points gain that will give us the all important channel breakdown resistsance line at 21000-21500
so far these last 3 weeks starting
1.august 15 2011-hsi open 20056,went up +450 points in first 3 days(WEEKLY CANDLEBODY)only to see hsi collapsing down 1100 points in 2 days to end down for the week.
2.aug 22 2011-hsi went up (WEEKLY CANDLEBODY)+450 points from monday open to friday morning 19919 only to see hsi collapsing in friday afternoon.
3. WEEK STARTING aug29 2011-hsi went up +1092 points from monday open to thursday highest before lunch BUT same tumbled on LATER PART OF THE WEEK (thursday afternoon +friday)and closed only+330 candlebody for the week.
THREE SUCH WEIRD TIMING,ALL IN LATER PART OF THE WEEK PLUS ALL 3 TIMES MUST TUMBLE DOWN TO "ENSURE" NO WEEKS IN THE 3 MOST RECENT WEEKS END WITH A >400PTS(AS IN THE PAST TWO 3CONSEC UP WEEKS) CANDLEBODY
SO FAKE AND THIS MANIPULATION PATTERN ENSURES STOCKMARKET IS NOTHING BUT PATTERNS,DIFFERENT NEWS IN THESE 3 WEEKS BUT IN THE END SAME REACTION EVERY WEEK--CANT BE PURELY COINCIDENTAL,right?
BUT TOTAL GAINS FROM last friday before week starting was only 1450
candlebody respective was 482,551,568
2)week starting march 21-week starting 4april:open to close:total 1995
TOTAL GAINS ARE: 2096
CANDLEBODY was 758,687,479
so from 19582 will hsi embark on THE THIRD 3WEEKS consecutive up pattern??
u add approx 1500-2000 points gain that will give us the all important channel breakdown resistsance line at 21000-21500
so far these last 3 weeks starting
1.august 15 2011-hsi open 20056,went up +450 points in first 3 days(WEEKLY CANDLEBODY)only to see hsi collapsing down 1100 points in 2 days to end down for the week.
2.aug 22 2011-hsi went up (WEEKLY CANDLEBODY)+450 points from monday open to friday morning 19919 only to see hsi collapsing in friday afternoon.
3. WEEK STARTING aug29 2011-hsi went up +1092 points from monday open to thursday highest before lunch BUT same tumbled on LATER PART OF THE WEEK (thursday afternoon +friday)and closed only+330 candlebody for the week.
THREE SUCH WEIRD TIMING,ALL IN LATER PART OF THE WEEK PLUS ALL 3 TIMES MUST TUMBLE DOWN TO "ENSURE" NO WEEKS IN THE 3 MOST RECENT WEEKS END WITH A >400PTS(AS IN THE PAST TWO 3CONSEC UP WEEKS) CANDLEBODY
SO FAKE AND THIS MANIPULATION PATTERN ENSURES STOCKMARKET IS NOTHING BUT PATTERNS,DIFFERENT NEWS IN THESE 3 WEEKS BUT IN THE END SAME REACTION EVERY WEEK--CANT BE PURELY COINCIDENTAL,right?
Saturday, August 20, 2011
SHARESWIZARD SPEAKS AGAIN-FROM SHORT TO LONG
im back...as usual my targets came true..
why im going long from short now?
1.vix always has "wellplanned" time cycle of 1year 3months for top to the next top.vix weakness is seen on last friday when usmkt drop 1+% but vix only went up 0.89%
2. usd chart shows weakness
3. goldsilver chart shows well support at 45.usmkt has already plunged near 20% from 1370 peak BUT goldsilver ratio unable to go beyond 45.
4. sp500 has 2 humps that are "wellplanned"-both 350points.a)from 870-1220 b)from 1010-1370 NEXT should be 1100-1450
5. THIS PLUNGE IS NOT DUE TO RECESSION FEARS,ETC.IF U BELIEVE IN NEWS U ARE A TOTAL MORON.this plunge is simply there BECAUSE STI HASNT HAD A 20% CORRECTION SINCE MARCH2009.proof-in this coming week,sti will go lower to 2650 WHILE HANGSENG,sp500 will just return to their same lows,18900,1100.
THE WIZARD HAS SPOKEN--dated 20th august 2011
why im going long from short now?
1.vix always has "wellplanned" time cycle of 1year 3months for top to the next top.vix weakness is seen on last friday when usmkt drop 1+% but vix only went up 0.89%
2. usd chart shows weakness
3. goldsilver chart shows well support at 45.usmkt has already plunged near 20% from 1370 peak BUT goldsilver ratio unable to go beyond 45.
4. sp500 has 2 humps that are "wellplanned"-both 350points.a)from 870-1220 b)from 1010-1370 NEXT should be 1100-1450
5. THIS PLUNGE IS NOT DUE TO RECESSION FEARS,ETC.IF U BELIEVE IN NEWS U ARE A TOTAL MORON.this plunge is simply there BECAUSE STI HASNT HAD A 20% CORRECTION SINCE MARCH2009.proof-in this coming week,sti will go lower to 2650 WHILE HANGSENG,sp500 will just return to their same lows,18900,1100.
THE WIZARD HAS SPOKEN--dated 20th august 2011
Friday, June 17, 2011
17th june 2011-targets next week sti2920,hsi 21350,sp500 1220
armageddon is here!!!colon cleansing,detox is here!!
Friday, May 27, 2011
27th may 2011-DIARY OF SHARESWIZARD-MANIPULATION PATTERN
MANIPULATION PATTERN--
WHY WAS HSI UP IN AFTERNOON ON VERY LOW VOLUME BUT USMKT AT NIGHT SHOOT UP?
PSYCHOLOGY:
AFTER the 488 point plunge in the hsi,IDIOTS ARE PETRIFIED of sudden plunge,so ANY GAP UPS "planned by the operator" will be seen as chances to escape from the mkt.TODAY HSI GAPPED UP ON LOW VOLUME WAS TO ABSORB THE IDIOTS' STOCKS WHILE MAINTAINING THE UPTREND OF THE HANGSENG.
ANY BLINDMEN CAN SEE THAT HANGSENG IS SUPER OVERSOLD AND WILL HAVE A SUPER MEGA 3 WEEKS NONSTOP RALLY VERY SOON.
condition:
1.sp500 MUST close between 1333-1337 BY FRIDAY,27MAY 2011 night(4am singapore time)
WHY WAS HSI UP IN AFTERNOON ON VERY LOW VOLUME BUT USMKT AT NIGHT SHOOT UP?
PSYCHOLOGY:
AFTER the 488 point plunge in the hsi,IDIOTS ARE PETRIFIED of sudden plunge,so ANY GAP UPS "planned by the operator" will be seen as chances to escape from the mkt.TODAY HSI GAPPED UP ON LOW VOLUME WAS TO ABSORB THE IDIOTS' STOCKS WHILE MAINTAINING THE UPTREND OF THE HANGSENG.
ANY BLINDMEN CAN SEE THAT HANGSENG IS SUPER OVERSOLD AND WILL HAVE A SUPER MEGA 3 WEEKS NONSTOP RALLY VERY SOON.
condition:
1.sp500 MUST close between 1333-1337 BY FRIDAY,27MAY 2011 night(4am singapore time)
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
24th may 2011-hsi touch my 22700..tomorrow tgt buy cw june expiry if..
1)tonight usmkt reverse all losses
2)tomorrow hsi touch 22500 and go up..
3)if u want safer,then wait for hsi up 500pts in 1 week as the STARTING week of the 3 weeks up trend to enter.(but of coz higher)
2)tomorrow hsi touch 22500 and go up..
3)if u want safer,then wait for hsi up 500pts in 1 week as the STARTING week of the 3 weeks up trend to enter.(but of coz higher)
Thursday, May 19, 2011
19th may 2011- YOU SEE WHAT I SAY ON 17TH MAY 2011.DID IT COME TRUE??
stockmarkets are so PREDICTABLE
MY EIGHT YEARS IN THE STOCKMARKET NEVER FAIL ME
MY EIGHT YEARS IN THE STOCKMARKET NEVER FAIL ME
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
17th may 2011--recap 10weeks upleg theory in USmkts with hsi
will hangseng follow sp500 in last week,10th week?
1.1st 10week ending week,9th week-week starting may4th 2009-sp500 rallied 6percent,hangseng rallied 12percent BECAUSE SHANGHAI RALLIED 6PC (hk=shanghai+sp500),hk,shanghai,us all up
2.2nd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting sept 14 2009-hangseng up 2pc, sp500 up 2.5pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 1PC (hk=sp500+shanghai),shanghai down;us,hk UP
3.3rd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting jan4 2010-sp up 2.6pc,hangseng up 2pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 2PC(no relation)
4,4th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting apr19 2010-sp up 2pc,hangseng down 3pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 5PC (hk=shanghai+sp500),shanghai down;us,hk up
5.5th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting nov1 2010-sp up 3.6pc,hangseng up 7.7pc,SHANGHAI UP 5pc (hk=shanghai+sp500),shanghai,hk,sp500 all up
6.6th 10week ending week,12th week-week starting feb14th 2011(6th 10weeks upleg was actually a 12weeks upleg)-sp500 up 13%,hangseng up 3.3% only, shanghai up 2% (no relation)
7th 10weeks is just in the process-so far,starting from week starting mar21 2011-8weeks have passed,sp500 up 3.9%,hsi up 2.2%,shanghai down 2%(as of closing values of 17th may for asia,16th may for usmkt)
MY ANALYSIS:
HENCE IF 7th 10WEEKS upleg ending target is 1381 + the formula of hk=shanghai + sp500 is believed to continue in last 2 weeks of the 7th 10weeks upleg,then the 7th 10weeks upleg gains will be sp500-up 7.8%,hsi up6.3%,shanghai down 2%
HENCE MY TARGET OF HSI AT 23800-24000 STAND WITH SP500 AT 1381 AT THE END OF THE 10TH WEEK OF THE 7TH 10WEEKS UPLEG
NOTE ALL FIGURES AND FORMULAS ARE APPROXIMATE,NOT EXACT
1.1st 10week ending week,9th week-week starting may4th 2009-sp500 rallied 6percent,hangseng rallied 12percent BECAUSE SHANGHAI RALLIED 6PC (hk=shanghai+sp500),hk,shanghai,us all up
2.2nd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting sept 14 2009-hangseng up 2pc, sp500 up 2.5pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 1PC (hk=sp500+shanghai),shanghai down;us,hk UP
3.3rd 10week ending week,10th week-week starting jan4 2010-sp up 2.6pc,hangseng up 2pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 2PC(no relation)
4,4th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting apr19 2010-sp up 2pc,hangseng down 3pc,SHANGHAI DOWN 5PC (hk=shanghai+sp500),shanghai down;us,hk up
5.5th 10week ending week,10th week-week starting nov1 2010-sp up 3.6pc,hangseng up 7.7pc,SHANGHAI UP 5pc (hk=shanghai+sp500),shanghai,hk,sp500 all up
6.6th 10week ending week,12th week-week starting feb14th 2011(6th 10weeks upleg was actually a 12weeks upleg)-sp500 up 13%,hangseng up 3.3% only, shanghai up 2% (no relation)
7th 10weeks is just in the process-so far,starting from week starting mar21 2011-8weeks have passed,sp500 up 3.9%,hsi up 2.2%,shanghai down 2%(as of closing values of 17th may for asia,16th may for usmkt)
MY ANALYSIS:
HENCE IF 7th 10WEEKS upleg ending target is 1381 + the formula of hk=shanghai + sp500 is believed to continue in last 2 weeks of the 7th 10weeks upleg,then the 7th 10weeks upleg gains will be sp500-up 7.8%,hsi up6.3%,shanghai down 2%
HENCE MY TARGET OF HSI AT 23800-24000 STAND WITH SP500 AT 1381 AT THE END OF THE 10TH WEEK OF THE 7TH 10WEEKS UPLEG
NOTE ALL FIGURES AND FORMULAS ARE APPROXIMATE,NOT EXACT
Saturday, May 14, 2011
14th may 2011-OH MY GOD!!7TH 10WEEKS upleg has STARTED ON MAR21 2011,tgt 1381
now 8th weeks of the 10weeks upleg has already past us.I APOLOGISE FOR REALISING THIS SO LATE!!!!the stckmkt operators are very cunning indeed,they change the pattern of this 7th 10weeks upleg a little bit-details i cant disclose,i can only disclose to people who pay me.I DIDNT DISCOVER UNTIL TODAY 14th may 2011
Fact 1:2 weeks up,2weeks down BUT the 2weeks down will be contained in the 2nd week up CANDLEBODY--repeated 2X since mar21 2011
Fact 2:the duration of each hump is COINCIDENTALLY same about 1 mth each to reach the support trendline
Fact3:the projection of the 1st hump is 60 points up,2nd hump is 50 points,3rd hump---40?????tgt 1380,78.6% fibo of 1576-666
Fact 1:2 weeks up,2weeks down BUT the 2weeks down will be contained in the 2nd week up CANDLEBODY--repeated 2X since mar21 2011
Fact 2:the duration of each hump is COINCIDENTALLY same about 1 mth each to reach the support trendline
Fact3:the projection of the 1st hump is 60 points up,2nd hump is 50 points,3rd hump---40?????tgt 1380,78.6% fibo of 1576-666
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
11th may2011-as i said b4 usmkt no 1.5% to 2% plunge before sp500 hit 1381
we are indeed sailing to 1381,as predicted weeks ago.short at sp500 1381,hsi 24000,sti 3240
Thursday, April 28, 2011
28th april 2011--EXPLAIN PLEASE FUCKAMENTALISTS.trading is very simple-FIND THE OPERATOR'S ALGORITHM
y us jobless claims up,us economic growth slows reports,us market can still dont plunge?
yah yah u will tell me because the economy is still weak,fomc will still have more QE,and will benefit stocks
WHO TOLD U THAT THIS MUST BE THE CASE?????????????
you all can trace the fomc's every transferring of the QE money?
dont bull shit
why cant fuckamentalists stop lying their way thru?my 8years of observing stockmarket day and night i see so much lies,haze,smokescreen,fog that makes you confused at the end.
FUCK U FUCKAMENTALISTS
i can even tell you from now till sp500 hit 1380,the USMARKETS WILL NOT PLUNGE by 1.5% to 2%.I NEVER CARE FOR WHAT NEWS POPPIN OUT,people ask me what the fed says, i reply HUH?ONE EAR IN ONE EAR OUT
yah yah u will tell me because the economy is still weak,fomc will still have more QE,and will benefit stocks
WHO TOLD U THAT THIS MUST BE THE CASE?????????????
you all can trace the fomc's every transferring of the QE money?
dont bull shit
why cant fuckamentalists stop lying their way thru?my 8years of observing stockmarket day and night i see so much lies,haze,smokescreen,fog that makes you confused at the end.
FUCK U FUCKAMENTALISTS
i can even tell you from now till sp500 hit 1380,the USMARKETS WILL NOT PLUNGE by 1.5% to 2%.I NEVER CARE FOR WHAT NEWS POPPIN OUT,people ask me what the fed says, i reply HUH?ONE EAR IN ONE EAR OUT
28th april 2011-i "love" grandma story telling time AFTER stockmarket close
【收市解碼】港股倒跌收場 恒指再失二萬四
(經濟日報)2011年4月28日 星期四 18:02
【經濟日報專訊】今日為期指結算日，港股連續第二日高開低收，恒指高開210點後升幅收窄，午後更在A股拖累下一度倒跌過百點，全日跌87點或0.37%，失守24000點，收報23805點；國指跌132點或0.99%，收報13319點。主板全日成交略增，約776.49億元。
在期指結算日，即月期指收報23952點，升127點。下月期指收報23600點，跌61點。
藍籌股中，以中石油（00857）和中海油 （00883）表現最差，合共拖低指數逾50點。中石油跌0.36元或3.1%，收報11.24元；中海油跌0.4點或2.04%，收報19.2點。至於滙控則表現最好，收報84.45元，逆市升0.65元或0.78%。
除石油石化股外，內房股亦跑輸大市。國土部調控和監測司司長劉隨臣昨透露，全國實際閒置房地產用地遠大於13萬畝，未來政府將加大查處力度，令市場憂慮中央將加碼調控。另外，繼實施《商品房銷售明碼標價規定》後，發改委正研究實施樓市「反暴利」規定，調查發展商旗下項目的利潤，內房股則繼續捱沽，當中首創置業（02868）和碧桂園 （02007）跌逾4%。至於被內地傳媒指旗下物業項目謀取暴利的華潤置地 （01109），亦跌近3%，收報13.66元。
三大內銀公布業績前下跌
內銀股方面，建行（00939）、工行（01398）及中行（03988）公布季度業績前，股價相繼下跌，其中工行跌逾1%。至於昨公布業績的農行（01288），巴克萊雖認為業績有美中不足之處，仍維持其「大市同步」評級。農行逆市升0.64%，收報4.74元。
除農行外，部分首季業績佳的股份仍受棒，惟升幅收窄。首季多賺15.9%的中煤能源 （01898）升4.25%，收報10.8元；多賺28%的平保（02318）升0.47%，收報85.05元。不過，中午公布首季業績的中國建材（03323）其附屬公司北新建材，雖多賺33.37%至3,364萬元，仍跌0.79%，收報31.45元。
中金再生（00773）、中盈國金（00766）、威高（01066）及惠理（00806）等昨日配售的多隻股份，齊齊捱沽，當中以遭平保減持的惠理跌幅最大，跌逾6%，收報7.1元。至於中盈國金跌4.6%，中金再生跌3.24%，威高亦跌2.47%。
更多經濟日報網站內容, 請登入hket.com
BUNCH OF RUBBISH--using FUNDAMENTALS TO EXPLAIN WHY CHINA STOCK MARKET DROP AND INFLUENCE HK MKT
i aleady predicted 3am singapore time before the markets open at 9.30am
SUPER IRRITATING
THEN HOW DO THE FUCK UP REPORTERS EXPLAIN TOMORROW 29TH APRIL (shareswizard's scenario) of us futures drop BUT china go up,hk STILL DROP tomorrow?
why china MUST "drag down" hk today.28th april 2011?
why china go up,hk mkt still down for some days????(no bad news from hongkong)
EXPLAIN YOU FUCKAMENTALISTS!!!hahahaha
(經濟日報)2011年4月28日 星期四 18:02
【經濟日報專訊】今日為期指結算日，港股連續第二日高開低收，恒指高開210點後升幅收窄，午後更在A股拖累下一度倒跌過百點，全日跌87點或0.37%，失守24000點，收報23805點；國指跌132點或0.99%，收報13319點。主板全日成交略增，約776.49億元。
在期指結算日，即月期指收報23952點，升127點。下月期指收報23600點，跌61點。
藍籌股中，以中石油（00857）和中海油 （00883）表現最差，合共拖低指數逾50點。中石油跌0.36元或3.1%，收報11.24元；中海油跌0.4點或2.04%，收報19.2點。至於滙控則表現最好，收報84.45元，逆市升0.65元或0.78%。
除石油石化股外，內房股亦跑輸大市。國土部調控和監測司司長劉隨臣昨透露，全國實際閒置房地產用地遠大於13萬畝，未來政府將加大查處力度，令市場憂慮中央將加碼調控。另外，繼實施《商品房銷售明碼標價規定》後，發改委正研究實施樓市「反暴利」規定，調查發展商旗下項目的利潤，內房股則繼續捱沽，當中首創置業（02868）和碧桂園 （02007）跌逾4%。至於被內地傳媒指旗下物業項目謀取暴利的華潤置地 （01109），亦跌近3%，收報13.66元。
三大內銀公布業績前下跌
內銀股方面，建行（00939）、工行（01398）及中行（03988）公布季度業績前，股價相繼下跌，其中工行跌逾1%。至於昨公布業績的農行（01288），巴克萊雖認為業績有美中不足之處，仍維持其「大市同步」評級。農行逆市升0.64%，收報4.74元。
除農行外，部分首季業績佳的股份仍受棒，惟升幅收窄。首季多賺15.9%的中煤能源 （01898）升4.25%，收報10.8元；多賺28%的平保（02318）升0.47%，收報85.05元。不過，中午公布首季業績的中國建材（03323）其附屬公司北新建材，雖多賺33.37%至3,364萬元，仍跌0.79%，收報31.45元。
中金再生（00773）、中盈國金（00766）、威高（01066）及惠理（00806）等昨日配售的多隻股份，齊齊捱沽，當中以遭平保減持的惠理跌幅最大，跌逾6%，收報7.1元。至於中盈國金跌4.6%，中金再生跌3.24%，威高亦跌2.47%。
更多經濟日報網站內容, 請登入hket.com
BUNCH OF RUBBISH--using FUNDAMENTALS TO EXPLAIN WHY CHINA STOCK MARKET DROP AND INFLUENCE HK MKT
i aleady predicted 3am singapore time before the markets open at 9.30am
SUPER IRRITATING
THEN HOW DO THE FUCK UP REPORTERS EXPLAIN TOMORROW 29TH APRIL (shareswizard's scenario) of us futures drop BUT china go up,hk STILL DROP tomorrow?
why china MUST "drag down" hk today.28th april 2011?
why china go up,hk mkt still down for some days????(no bad news from hongkong)
EXPLAIN YOU FUCKAMENTALISTS!!!hahahaha
28th april 2011--APRIL 2011 MY VIEWERSHIP HAS DOUBLED OF AVERAGE MONTH,HIT RECORD!!
u look at how correct i am--
1.hsi nonsense (i predicted plunge 400points today,THE ONLY DIFFERENCE between today and feb 9th is that TODAY IT GAPPED UP 200 POINTS BEFORE REALLY DROP 400POINTS FROM THE TOP,feb 9th was open around feb8 close value and PLUNGE 400points,NO GAP UP OF 200POINTS)
2. hsi nonsense "caused" by china.china down 1%
3.us mkt going up
I SHALL PREDICT TOMORROW SCENARIO:
1. us futures during asia trading hours PLUNGE
2.BUT usmkt WONT PLUNGE at night
3.hsi end at 23500,sti 3150
U LOOK AT THE 2GAYS,HSI AND STI PARKING JUST ON TOP OF THE DIAGONAL TRENDLINE RESISTANCE TURN SUPPORT(drawn from 2 highest points),no wonder STI "waited" for hangseng today at 3180s vs hangseng 23800
more secrets i have discovered BUT im going share with my students ONLY
1.hsi nonsense (i predicted plunge 400points today,THE ONLY DIFFERENCE between today and feb 9th is that TODAY IT GAPPED UP 200 POINTS BEFORE REALLY DROP 400POINTS FROM THE TOP,feb 9th was open around feb8 close value and PLUNGE 400points,NO GAP UP OF 200POINTS)
2. hsi nonsense "caused" by china.china down 1%
3.us mkt going up
I SHALL PREDICT TOMORROW SCENARIO:
1. us futures during asia trading hours PLUNGE
2.BUT usmkt WONT PLUNGE at night
3.hsi end at 23500,sti 3150
U LOOK AT THE 2GAYS,HSI AND STI PARKING JUST ON TOP OF THE DIAGONAL TRENDLINE RESISTANCE TURN SUPPORT(drawn from 2 highest points),no wonder STI "waited" for hangseng today at 3180s vs hangseng 23800
more secrets i have discovered BUT im going share with my students ONLY
28th april 2011,3am(singapore time)--thurs,fri,next monday hsi will down total of 800-1000 points if im not wrong
prediction made on 28th april 2011 at 3am singapore time..
28apr2011,thursday excuse:china drop 1%
friday excuse:us fut plunge in morn
(today repeat feb7,watch out for the next week in hangseng.will be fantastic for my shorts)
if 28apr is flat then 29th apr and may2nd will be plunge days for hsi
28apr2011,thursday excuse:china drop 1%
friday excuse:us fut plunge in morn
(today repeat feb7,watch out for the next week in hangseng.will be fantastic for my shorts)
if 28apr is flat then 29th apr and may2nd will be plunge days for hsi
Thursday, April 21, 2011
21st April 2011-updates of shareswizard scenario
as in my sms to my friends and students yesterday:
SCENARIOS IN ORDER
1.sp500 close 1323 last nite(wrong as sp500 close 1330,hence sp500 going to 1344
2.21st april 2011,hsi is a doji,spinning top(yes im correct)
3. sp500 tonite,21st april close at 1343-1345.
4.hsi tuesday morning(monday is a holiday)will gap up and drop down......(ANOTHER HK LED,US FOLLOW REACTION)
LOVE
SHARESWIZARD
SCENARIOS IN ORDER
1.sp500 close 1323 last nite(wrong as sp500 close 1330,hence sp500 going to 1344
2.21st april 2011,hsi is a doji,spinning top(yes im correct)
3. sp500 tonite,21st april close at 1343-1345.
4.hsi tuesday morning(monday is a holiday)will gap up and drop down......(ANOTHER HK LED,US FOLLOW REACTION)
LOVE
SHARESWIZARD
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
19th april 2011-NUMBER OF VIEWS EXCEEDED THAT OF MARCH 2011 AND HIT RECORD!!THANKS GUYS!!
wah Now is only 19th april 2011,views for my blog hit a NEW RECORD!!
LOOK AT THE TYPE OF PREDICTIONS IM DAM SPOT ON:
1.THE NATURE
2.THE TIMING,ALTHO 1DAY LATE
LOOK AT THE TYPE OF PREDICTIONS IM DAM SPOT ON:
1.THE NATURE
2.THE TIMING,ALTHO 1DAY LATE
Friday, April 15, 2011
15th april2011(6PM SINGAPORE TIME)--WHY I KEEP MY HSI22600MBLEPW110530 PUT WARRANTS(SHORTS) OVERNIGHT??
it isnt usual for me to keep warrants overnight
WHY TONIGHT USMKT HIGH CHANCE OF PLUNGING?
1.usmkt hasnt taken the lead for many weeks,months if i can remember.it is hsi,sti 1st plunge,rise in the afternoon.,then usmkt will follow at night.
2. usmkt has not plunged ON ANY FRIDAY NIGHTS since jan28 2011
3. sti at resistance 3170
4.ratios of 3 brothers to support hsi22000,sp500 1200,sti 2900 is the same.
5. on jan28 2011,hk,sg mkts NEVER plunge in the afternoon,also after consolidating in a base(same as today)usmkt TOOK THE LEAD by plunging at night.
IF USMKT UP BY 1% TONIGHT,I WILL CUT LOSS MY HSI PUT WARRANT
WHY TONIGHT USMKT HIGH CHANCE OF PLUNGING?
1.usmkt hasnt taken the lead for many weeks,months if i can remember.it is hsi,sti 1st plunge,rise in the afternoon.,then usmkt will follow at night.
2. usmkt has not plunged ON ANY FRIDAY NIGHTS since jan28 2011
3. sti at resistance 3170
4.ratios of 3 brothers to support hsi22000,sp500 1200,sti 2900 is the same.
5. on jan28 2011,hk,sg mkts NEVER plunge in the afternoon,also after consolidating in a base(same as today)usmkt TOOK THE LEAD by plunging at night.
IF USMKT UP BY 1% TONIGHT,I WILL CUT LOSS MY HSI PUT WARRANT
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
12th april 2011-today is the 7th day,strange things happen on 8th day
on dec 15,was a down day,then came a 4day rally,then a straight line consolidation for 7days to dec31 with VERY LOW volume.
mar28 was a down day followed by a long candlebody on next day,4days rally,and a consolidation of 6days,TODAY is the 7th day!
we will get the confirmation of whether it is THE 7th 10weeks upleg OR a selldown to 1200 as early as TOMORROW,the 8TH DAY!!
If SP500 bounced off 1320 today and tomorrow,+hsi bounced off 23500-23700,the downtrend resistance line that it broke out from IN THESE 2days,today,or tomorrow,THEN IT IS THE FIRST SIGNAL of 7th 10week upleg.of course the confirmation of the 7th 10week upleg is sp500 MUST cross 1344.
DIFFERENCE:is that this time,the consolidation is on heavy volume
I WILL UPDATE AGAIN
mar28 was a down day followed by a long candlebody on next day,4days rally,and a consolidation of 6days,TODAY is the 7th day!
we will get the confirmation of whether it is THE 7th 10weeks upleg OR a selldown to 1200 as early as TOMORROW,the 8TH DAY!!
If SP500 bounced off 1320 today and tomorrow,+hsi bounced off 23500-23700,the downtrend resistance line that it broke out from IN THESE 2days,today,or tomorrow,THEN IT IS THE FIRST SIGNAL of 7th 10week upleg.of course the confirmation of the 7th 10week upleg is sp500 MUST cross 1344.
DIFFERENCE:is that this time,the consolidation is on heavy volume
I WILL UPDATE AGAIN
Saturday, April 9, 2011
9th april 2011-STILL no confirmation from usmarkets-still in the balance
after last night action.usmarkets still hang in the straight line consolidation phase,NO confirmation about 7th 10weeks upleg already started on mar21 OR a plunge down to 1200 for sp500
I will update again when there is confirmation
happy trading folks
I will update again when there is confirmation
happy trading folks
Friday, April 8, 2011
8th april 2011--it is either start of 7th 10weeks from mar21 OR a drop to 1200
UPDATE:
dam it!still have not get confirmation!!
CRITERIA TO CONFIRM START OF 7TH 10WEEKS UPLEG STARTED ON 21ST MARCH2011
1.hsi did break out of downtrend resistance line at around 23.8K-24K
2.SP500 still havent break out of 1345
WE only have two scenarios
1.start of 7th 10weeks upleg-if it is proven true,this week ending 8th april will be the 3rd week,tgt sp500-1430,hsi 26500, sti 3300 look at charts of sp500 at dec22-31 2010.aint now look exactly like that?
we project the remaining distance of about 90points from jan1st 2011 to feb18 2011
hangseng during that time rose about 2000points
2.Or going down from here to test sp500 at 1200,where the rise since mar21 2011 CANT be counted as start of SEVENTH,7th 10th weeks upleg
WATCH THE DRAMA
dam it!still have not get confirmation!!
CRITERIA TO CONFIRM START OF 7TH 10WEEKS UPLEG STARTED ON 21ST MARCH2011
1.hsi did break out of downtrend resistance line at around 23.8K-24K
2.SP500 still havent break out of 1345
WE only have two scenarios
1.start of 7th 10weeks upleg-if it is proven true,this week ending 8th april will be the 3rd week,tgt sp500-1430,hsi 26500, sti 3300 look at charts of sp500 at dec22-31 2010.aint now look exactly like that?
we project the remaining distance of about 90points from jan1st 2011 to feb18 2011
hangseng during that time rose about 2000points
2.Or going down from here to test sp500 at 1200,where the rise since mar21 2011 CANT be counted as start of SEVENTH,7th 10th weeks upleg
WATCH THE DRAMA
Monday, April 4, 2011
4th april 2011-ONE STEP OF MY JIGSAW HAS BEEN FILLED.NOW final pieces:will sp500 hit 1345 tonite+sharp reversal down on wed morning when hsi reopens??
IT IS CRITICAL TIME to see whether the breakout in hangseng is real or fake.
CRUCIAL criteria:HSI MUST BOUNCE OFF 23800 ON ANY DIPS
CRUCIAL criteria:HSI MUST BOUNCE OFF 23800 ON ANY DIPS
Saturday, April 2, 2011
april1st 2011-ALL matters is whether hangseng will have a steep pullback below 23500 NEXT week BETWEEN CASE 1 OR CASE2
judging by the momentum on the upside AND the fact that sp500 doesnt need to have a positive divergence in the WEEKLY charts before it can go up(proven in the 1st half which lasted from mar09-april2010)
i told you guys before it is either case 1:a sharp pullback to 1200 OR case 2:7th 10weeks upleg has already started last week
i also said:things will turn MORE bullish if sp500 go beyond 1320
now we must wait for hangseng to confirm able to hold above 23500 if it ever drops next week.
HSCEI has already broken out upwards-hangseng will likely follow hscei,resistance at 24k
please also refer to my earlier posts--i also said hangseng will break out upwards when sp500 in the 7th 10weeks upleg.we just need hangseng to confirm it,LAST PIECE OF JIGSAW PUZZLE
AFTER LAST PIECE OF JIGSAW IS COMPLETED,TARGETS FOR SP500=1420(>78.6% FIBO OF 1576-666)
i told you guys before it is either case 1:a sharp pullback to 1200 OR case 2:7th 10weeks upleg has already started last week
i also said:things will turn MORE bullish if sp500 go beyond 1320
now we must wait for hangseng to confirm able to hold above 23500 if it ever drops next week.
HSCEI has already broken out upwards-hangseng will likely follow hscei,resistance at 24k
please also refer to my earlier posts--i also said hangseng will break out upwards when sp500 in the 7th 10weeks upleg.we just need hangseng to confirm it,LAST PIECE OF JIGSAW PUZZLE
AFTER LAST PIECE OF JIGSAW IS COMPLETED,TARGETS FOR SP500=1420(>78.6% FIBO OF 1576-666)
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