SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS
THANKS TO YOU ALL-MY PAGEVIEWS SKYROCKETED IN JAN2012,ONE MONTH ALONE is EQUAL TO 6MONTHS OF
PAGEVIEWS!!A BIG THANK YOU
SINCE THIS THREAD "SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 UPTRENDS AND CONSOLIDATIONS" THREAD IS SO POPULAR,THE HIGHEST VIEWERSHIP,I PUT IT IN THE FRONT PAGE
SUMMARY OF ALL SP500 uptrends and consolidations
UPTRENDS-
1. Mostly 10weeks,although some may be 9,11,12.how to recognize?--uptrend "mysteriously" maintained by a diagonal uptrendline connecting the lows of that 10weeks uptrend
2. 1st and last(10th) week always end in surges of aorund 3-6%with the least 1st week gain was 2.7%.The humpy uptrend will "mysteriously" start and end with surges up.
3. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end below a fibo of the 1576-666 range,THEN the next,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THAT FIBO.
4. If the (X-1)th 10+weeks end ABOVE a fibo of the 1576-666 range,then the NEXT,Xth, 10+weeks will end AT THE NEXT HIGHER FIBO.
5. Every year's end, at the last trading day of the year,sp500 will end near a fibo of 1576-666 range.
6. Every 10+weeks uptrend will start AFTER a double testing of the diagonal uptrend line formed by the humps from july 13th week 2009.
7. The uptrend in the secular bear market,before breakout 1576, will be a "humpy" ride,whereby i forecast a total of 4 humps to test 1576.
8. After the sp500 breaks out of the 1576 resistance,the diagonal uptrendline will be much sharper than the uptrendline of the 4 humps.
9. The peaks of each hump will occur at AROUND 350-360 POINTS ABOVE THE CORRECTION TESTED FIBONACCI.
10. 2009 REPLICATE 2003,2010 REPLICATE 2004,2011 REPLICATE 2005,SO ON--I mean the closing values and their respective fibo,
CONSOLIDATIONS-CORRECTIONS AND RETRACEMENTS
1. Every correction will have one week of huge plunge about 100points in sp500
2. every Long/HUGE weekly plunge of around 5-8% in the sp500 will be met with a return to the start BEFORE the huge plunge(weekly open) of THAT LONG WEEKLY DOWN CANDLEBODY in 23 to 24 weeks
3. After the peak of each hump has been achieved,there will come a plunge BACK to the fibo of 1576-666 range.---------
eg. 1st hump ended at 1219,near 61.8%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 38.2%,before the NEXT hump will be formed
eg. 2nd hump peaked at 1370,near the 78.6%,then sp500 plunged back to retest the 50%..so on..
1st correction went to the 38.2%,1013, lowest 1010 and built a base around 1065
-took 24 weeks to reach the open of the HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of MAY 3RD 2010
-dropped a total of 210points-2nd week from the top of the 4th 10+weeks uptrend pattern 1217,was the huge weekly plunge
-took 8weeks to hit the lowest point 1010
2nd correction went to 1074 lowest,BUT built a base around the 50% fibo,1120.
-took 23 weeks to reach the open pf the 2nd HUGE weekly plunge of 120points,week of August 1, 2011
-dropped a total of 270points from 1344 and 300points from the HEAD peak 1370
-the huge weekly drop also happened in the 2nd week from the 5th 10+weeks uptrend pattern close peak of 1344.,the LEFT SHOULDER OF THE head and shoulders
-took 9weeks to hit the lowest point 1074
THIS IS THE NEW AND IMPROVISED VERSION OF THE MOST POPULAR POST IN MY BLOG
LET US RECALL THE LIES OF MEDIA OR PEOPLE WHO DON'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN
1)DATA GOOD,COMPANIES EARNINGS GOOD,INDEX DROP= "FACTORED IN" OR "LESSEN STIMULUS HOPES"
2)DATA BAD,COMPANIES EARNINGS BAD,INDEX RISE="INCREASED STIMULUS HOPES"
3)WHEN USA CRISIS CAME,FULL OF CDO SHIT PROBLEM,NO1 KNOWS THERE WILL BE A EUROPE CRISIS IN 2009.THEN CAME EUROPE CRISIS.
4)WHEN EUROPE CRISIS BECOME STALE NEWS,FOCUS SHIFT TO LIBYA GADDAFI TO "EXPLAIN" DROP IN USA MARKETS
5)THEN AFTER GADDAFI NEWS BECAME STALE,THEY SHIFT BACK TO EUROPE AND CHANGE TO "AUSTERITY" SHIT
6)THEN AFTER EURO AUSTERITY NEWS BECOME STALE,THEY SHIFT FOCUS BACK TO USA AND INTRODUCED "FISCAL CLIFF" SHIT JUST BECAUSE BERNANKE MENTIONED FISCAL CLIFF
I "LOVE" THEIR SHIT.EVERYTIME THE STORY BECOMES OLD AND STALE,SOMETHING NEW WILL POP OUT AND THE OLD ONE WILL NEVER BE MENTIONED AGAIN-SINK INTO OBLIVION!!
1ST CDO,LIBYA,AUSTERITY,NOW FISCAL CLIFF.NEXT FUCK YOU!!DID CDO SHIT RESURFACE AGAIN NOW?WHO REMEMBER GADDAFI,LIBYA PROBLEMS SUDDENLY SOLVED FOREVER??
GRANDMOTHER STORY SPINNERS FUCKERS.
19th October 2013
NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES ROBOTIC PATTERN
1) BASE
A-
WEEK oF 17 NOVEMBER 2008—0.93
Week of 9 March 2009—0.85
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +182% IN
1YEAR,1 MONTH, HIT NEAR 2.40 IN APRIL 2010
2) BASE
B-
Week of 22 August 2011—0.98
Week of 21 November 2011---0.995
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3 MONTHS APART BETWEEN
1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +53% IN 3
months.HIT 1.515 IN 20 FEBRUARY 2012 WEEK
3) BASE
C-
Week of 23 July 2012—1.05
Week of 19 November 2012---1.05
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
3+ MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED +30% IN 1.5months.HIT
1.36 IN 7 January 2013 WEEK
4) NOW,IT
IS BASE D TIME
Week of 10 June 2013—1.025
Week of 26 August 2013---1.025
DOUBLE BOTTOM HIT
Near 3 MONTHS APART
BETWEEN 1ST AND 2ND BOTTOM
RALLIED ????% by
??????
N.O.L-NEPTUNE ORIENT LINES-N03.SI (WEEKLY CHARTS) YEAR 2006:6 NOVEMBER TO 1ST JAN2007: 1.77 TO 2.20 (+43c) YEAR 2008:17NOVEMBER TO 5JAN2009: 0.84 TO 1.175 (+33.5c) YEAR 2009:2NOVEMBER TO 11JAN2010: 1.51 TO 1.94 (+43c) YEAR 2010:22NOVEMBER TO 3JAN2011: 2.07 TO 2.40 (+33c) YEAR 2011:21NOVEMBER TO 30JAN2012: 0.995 TO 1.43 (+43.5c) YEAR 2012:19NOVEMBER TO 7JAN2013: 1.055 TO 1.36 (+30.5c)
Thursday, December 6, 2012
6th december 2012-HANGSENG DID WHAT SHARESWIZARD ORDERED-BREAKOUT OF 22K WITH A SURGE YESTERDAY!!
MIRACULOUSLY,HANGSENG MUST PARK JUST BELOW ITS 22K RESISTANCE,21700S JUST TO BREAK OUT WITH A BANG, TIMED TO PERFRECTION WITH CHINA SURGE!!
ISN'T THIS STOKCMARKET DRAMA OR WHAT?SCRIPT ALREADY WELL WRITTEN BEFOREHAND!!!
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
5th december 2012-THE "COORDINATION"-REMEMBER MY 22ND NOVEMBER 2012 POST-REPEAT TELECAST?
DRYSHIPS PREVIOUS LOWS WAS 1.75,EAGLE WAS 2.51 USD
DRYSSHIPS FELL TO 1.43 LOWEST,A DECLINE OF NEAR 19% FROM 1.75,AHEAD OF EAGLE.SO WHEN EAGLE ALSO HIT ITS OWN 19% DECLINE FROM 2.51 USD,TO 2.02 USD ON MONDAY NIGHT,DRYSHIPS DID NOT FOLLOW!!!THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT,EAGLE MIRACULOUSLY BOUNCED UP AND CLOSE 2.11USD,ERASED ALL LOSSES!!!!
MAGNIFICENT COORDINATION!!!!!!!!!!!!WHAT THE FUCK????
this is the signal i am waiting for!!
Friday, November 30, 2012
30TH NOVEMBER 2012-2012 VS 2010 CONSOLIDATIONS IN HANGSENG INDEX:TIME INTERVALS, AND INDEX VALUE FORMATION HEIGHTS ARE SO "COINCIDENTALLY" PLANNED TO BE IN RATIO OF 2:1
ALL VALUES ARE TAKEN TO BE APPROXIMATE(time)SO THAT THE GENERAL PATTERN IN CANDLESTICK CAN BE SEEN VERY CLEARLY,EG.HANGSENG IN OCT 2011 PLUNGED TO 16.1K,BUT THE BASE WAS BUILT AT 18K,NOT AT 16.1K
4 similarities CANNOT BE SO "COINCIDENTAL".CONSOLIDATION OF 2010 VS CONSOLIDATION OF 2012 IS IN A RATIO OF 1:2 NO MATTER IN TERMS OF TIME INTERVALS BETWEEN BOTTOMS,TOPS AND FORMATION HEIGHT.
NEW EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT MY PREVIOUS PREDICTION OF HANGSENG 24-25K BY APRIL/MAY 2013 IS DAMN REAL!!
WITH NOW SHANGHAI COMPOSITE PLUNGED WHEN HANGSENG INDEX MOVED UP FROM JUNE 4TH 2012 TILL NOW MAKES ME REALISE THAT 26-27K,FULFILLED WHEN HEIGHT OF 4K IS ADDED TO THE BREAKOUT RESISTANCE LEVEL OF 22K, IS REASONABLE BY THE SAME TIME PERIOD APRIL-JUNE2013
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
28th november 2012-WHY I NEVER BUY OLAM FROM 2003,YEAR I STARTED BUYING STOCKS UNTIL TODAY-DUE TO LOW PROFIT MARGINS OF THE INDUSTRY LIKE NOBLE,OLAM
Data provided by Capital
IQ, except where noted.
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Saturday, November 24, 2012
24th nov2012-this week is the 1st week of the 9th 10+weeks uptrend IN SP500
NO WEEK OF THE FOLLOWING 10+WEEKS MUST CLOSE ON A FRIDAY BELOW LAST FRIDAY'S CLOSING 1359.IF IT DOES,THEN IT SIGNAL 9TH 10+WEEKS IS NO MORE AND CORRECTION COMING.
I KNOW THIS ALGORITHM VERY WELL AND JUST ALGORITHM IS ENOUGH BECAUSE I AM EMOTIONALLY DEAF AND BLIND TO NEWS.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
22nd november 2012-REPEAT TELECAST OF SAME DRAMA
DRYSHIPS WENT 10+% LOWER OF 1.75 TO 1.40s AND EAGLE WENT 10% LOWER FROM 2.51 LOWEST TO THE CURRENT 2.30 LOWEST,BUT MERCATOR,ASIAN SHIP DID NOT,SOMEHOW BEING KEPT AT AROUND 11CENTS,SAME BOTTOM.THIS IS IN LINE WITH MARCH 2009, SP500 GOING 10+% LOWER FROM NOV 2008 LOWEST OF 741 TO 666 IN MARCH 2009 BUT HSI,STI BEING MAINTAINED AT 2008OCT LOWS.
WHY SHIPS FOLLOW MAIN INDEX?BECAUSE THIS IS THE FINAL LOW OF THE SHIPPING CYCLE.I HAVE BEEN IN THE STOCKMARKET FOR SO LONG,FINAL LOWS OR TOPS CANNOT ESCAPE MY EYES.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
20th november 2012- dejavu of march 2009!I LOVE DE JAVUs
NOW,NOV 2012-mercator went back to the lowest 11cents,whereas usa ships like dryships and eagle went lower than their ALL TIME LOWEST of 1.75 usd and 2.51 usd by 10+% TO 1.40s usd AND 2.30s usd RESPECTIVELY.BDI ALSO SURGED UP SINCE SEPT2012.
WHAT WAS MY STRATEGY IN MARCH 2009????
I DID NOT BUY DURING EARLY MARCH 2009 WHEN SP500 HIT 666.I BOUGHT HEAVILY IN END OF MARCH 2009 WHEN SP500 RETURNED ABOVE THE BREAKDOWN POINT OF 741 TO 800 IN THE 3RD-4TH WEEK OF MARCH 2009.I NEEDED A CONFIRMATION THAT THE BREAKDOWN IN SP500 WAS FAKE,AND AFTER I GOT IT,I WHACKED STOCKS AS IF THERE WAS NO TOMORROW,AT JUNE 2009 START,ROLLING TO ABOUT S$200K FROM A CAPITAL OF S$30K IN 3RD WEEK OF MARCH 2009.
I WILL REPEAT MY STRATEGY BACK AGAIN-WHEN DRYSHIPS AND EAGLE RETURNED BACK ABOVE THEIR BREAKDOWN POINTS,I WILL WHACK LIKE NO TOMORROW IN MERCATOR LINES.
TILL THEN.AU REVOIR.
SAID ON 20TH NOVEMEBER 2012
Saturday, November 17, 2012
17TH NOV 2012-HOW TO KNOW UPTREND?OR STILL IN RETRACEMENT?
1)thurs/friday up 2% in one day or both days combine MORE THAN 2%
2)fridays MUST NEVER PLUNGE MORE THAN 2%
3)total week gains must be MORE THAN 2%(MUST be PRESENT)
UP TO NOW,THE 9TH WEEK OF RETRACEMENT,NONE OF THE 9WEEKS SHOW ANY OF THESE CHARACTERISTICS,SO HAPPY WAITING!!
LET US COMPARE THE MYSTERIOUS FRIDAYS OF UPTRENDS WITH THE FRIDAYS OF RETRACEMENT PERIODS
8TH 10+WEEKS UP FROM JUNE 4 TO SEPT 10TH WEEK
sp500
1)JUNE 8TH FRIDAY- +10
2)JUNE 15TH FRIDAY- +13
3)JUNE 22ND FRIDAY- +9
4)JUNE 29TH FRIDAY- +32
5)JULY 6TH FRIDAY- -11
6)JULY 13TH FRIDAY- +22
7)JULY 20TH FRIDAY- -13
8)JULY 27TH FRIDAY- +26
9)AUG 3RD FRIDAY- +26
10)AUG 10TH FRIDAY- +3
11)AUG 17TH FRIDAY- +2
12)AUG 24TH FRIDAY- +10
13)AUG 31ST FRIDAY- +6
14)SEPT 7TH FRIDAY- +5
15)SEPT 14TH FRIDAY- +5
NINE RETRACEMENT WEEKS SO FAR
1)SEPT 21ST FRIDAY- FLAT
2)SEPT 28TH FRIDAY- -7
3)OCT 5TH FRIDAY- -1
4)OCT 12TH FRIDAY- -4
5)OCT 19TH FRIDAY- -24
6)OCT 26TH FRIDAY- -1
7)NOV 2ND FRIDAY- -13
8)NOV 9TH FRIDAY- +2
9)NOV 16TH FRIDAY- +6
Thursday, November 15, 2012
15th nov 2012-watch for tonight and/or friday night of surge of 2% in one day or >2% total gains in two days
SAME OLD MONDAY-WEDNESDAYS DROP
LET US SEE WHETHER THURS OR/AND FRIDAY WILL SATISFY ABOVE CRITERIA.
IF IT IS,THEN IT IS 1ST WEEK UP OF THE 9TH 10+WEEKS UP in SP500
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
14th nov2012-my beautiful cantonese poem to criticise media people bullshit
胡說八道亦得
我唔理佢寫乜
因佢心腸一片黑
灼熱精神全失
只知薪金無得失
MY BEAUTIFUL CANTONESE POEM ATTACKING LIES THAT MEDIA SAY.
WHAT HOT MONEY?NOVEMBER 2,MEDIA SAY "HOT MONEY BRINGS HANGSENG TO 15MONTH HIGH" WHY SUDDENLY 7 WORKING DAYS LATER,HANGSENG'S "HOT MONEY" NO MORE,CAN PLUNGE TO 21.1K,DROP OF 1,000 POINTS???
I "LOVE" YAHOO.COM.HK-NOV 2-"熱錢停不了 港股破22000點 創15月高".MEAN "HOT MONEY CANNOT BE STOPPED,HANGSENG 15MONTH HIGH".
SUDDENLY THIS FUCK HOT MONEY SUDDENLY CAN BE STOPPED AND HANGSENG CAN PLUNGE 1000POINTS IN 7WORKING DAYS??WHAT THE FUCK??WHY CANT MEDIA EXPLAIN IT IS PURPOSELY PUMP UP THE VOLUME AND DUMP AT 22K?OTHERWISE WHY IS THERE IN TECHNICALS THERE IS A TERMINOLOGY CALLED "PUMP AND DUMP"?
THIS FUCK "HOT MONEY" IS EVEN WORSE THAN MY EVER HOT COCK,SUDDENLY CAN TURN COLD,JUST RIGHT AFTER HANGSENG HIT 22.1K. all these fuck media people for sake of anyhow explain,create fanciful terms to anyhow meet their deadline.
I DID NOT CRITICISE TODAY ONLY.I CRITICISED LONG AGO,ON NOV 3,2012,LONG BEFORE HANGSENG PLUNGED 1000POINTS
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
13th november 2012-after yahoo.com.hk reported on 3rd november 2012-"熱錢停不了 港股破22000點 創15月高"-IN ENGLISH IT MEANS HOT MONEY CANNOT BE STOPPED,HANGSENG AT 15MONTH HIGH.SUDDENLY HOT MONEY STOPPED,AND HANGSENG KEPT ON PLUNGING FROM 3RD NOV PEAK?!!
-FROM YAHOO.COM.HK ON 2ND NOVEMBER 2012,HANGSENG AT 22.1K
TODAY 13TH NOVEMEBR 2012-HANGSENG AT 21.1K,DROPPED A TOTAL OF 1000 POINTS IN 7 WORKING DAYS!!
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SO HOT MONEY??SUDDENLY STOPPED??MEDIA PEOPLE,PLEASE DONT USE EXCUSES,NONSENSE EXCUSE OF "HOT MONEY" THEORYTO COVER UP YOUR INABILITY TO EXPLAIN.
HANGSENG AT 22.1K IS A CLEAR RESISTANCE,NOTHING TO DO WITH HOT MONEY,IT IS A CLEAR EXAMPLE OF PUMP AND DUMP
Monday, November 12, 2012
12th nov 2012-why everything matches to a tee?
I BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TWO MORE 10+WEEKS UP DUE TO 3 VERY "COINCIDENTAL" TRENDS.
1) sp500 micro trend within 3rd hump has a maintain 100points after each retracement,1158-1266-1373-1475?-1576? pattern of ALREADY COMPLETED (+250,-150,+200,-100), AND PROJECTED +150,-50,+100 TO 1576
2)dryships has also two important technical targets to meet,1ST:US $3.84- US $4 2ND:US 4+2=US$6
3)DRYS at us$6 also matches the pattern of sp500 on completion of each hump.1st hump,drys at 6.50,2nd hump at $6.20,in last 10+weeks up of 3rd hump drys should be at around $6
12th november 2012-shanghai listed electric,shipping and coal stocks are telling us a story
what story?
1)electric stocks and coal stocks and shipping stocks are all interrelated to each other.that is why electric co. charts and shipping co. charts are exact replica.electric co. charts are already starting the rebound up after hitting double bottom with oct2008 lows,whereas shipping hasn't.BUT BDI HAS STARTED A 40+% REBOUND FROM SEPT 2012
2)coal co. charts in nov 2012 are around their oct2007 highs,showing strength.
3)shanghai composite forming an inverse head and shoulders,plus my calculated 8months projection from sept2012 lows to may2013 around 2600-2700
4)sp500 also hit support as depicted by the chart,starting the 9th 10+weeks up anytime soon.VERY POSSIBLE THIS WEEK START 12TH NOV 2012 DUE TO THE A)SINCE SEPT19 WEEK, SP500 ALTERNATING WEEK 1WEEK DOWN,NEXT WEEK UP PATTERN AND B)HITTING BOTH SUPPORT LINES: FROM THE NOV28 2011,JUN4 2012 POINTS AND THE OTHER SUPPORT LINE FROM THE RETRACEMENT FROM SEPT19 WEEK 2012.
5)fellow drybulk stocks like dryships is consolidating around between 2 to 4 usd.IF IT IS BREAKDOWN DOWNWARDS,IT WILL MEAN TECHNICAL TARGET ZERO!!HAHAHA IMPOSSIBLE PROVIDED IT DOES NOT GO BANKRUPT.HENCE DRYS IS MORE LIKELY TO BREAK OUT UPWARDS RATHER THAN DOWNWARDS.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR TO NOTICE THE 1ST WEEK UP SIGNAL??
1)SP500 MUST HAVE A 2% OR MORE RISE IN WEEKLY GAINS THIS WEEK.
2)EITHER THURSDAY OR/AND FRIDAY MUST HAVE A SURGE OF NEAR 2% IN 1 DAY OR FRIDAYS MUST NOT PLUNGE
what to target? SHIPPING STOCKS due to the above reasons,AS THERE IS NO REASON WHY ELECTRICITY STOCKS START REBOUND UP AND COAL STOCKS ARE NOWHeRE NEAR 2008OCT LOWS,shipping stocks won't follow.SHIPPING STOCKS WILL BE THE ONES TO MOVE NOW
Friday, November 9, 2012
9th nov 2012-i criticised the famous idiots' "fundsflow theory" on nov 3rd 2012.HANGSENG HAS BEEN FALLING SINCE THAT DAY OF HIGHEST VOLUME!!
熱錢停不了 港股破22000點 創15月高"
IN THE END,FROM 3RD NOVEMBER 2012 TILL TODAY,HANGSENG PLUNGE DOWN VERY FAST TO 21384.
"Goldman Sachs Says Hong Kong Set to Benefit Most from Quantitative Easing
By Nick Gentle - Nov 3, 2010 8:04 AM
Goldman Sach Group Inc. raised its 12-month target for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index to 29,000, saying the city has the most to gain from extra liquidity released by quantitative easing programs and China’s growth. ..."
IN THE END,HANGSENG PLUNGED TO 16100 IN 2011.WHAT HAPPEN TO THE FUNDS FLOW????BY SAYING THIS,MEDIA IS HINTING THAT THE HOT FUNDS FROM FUND MANAGERS ARE ALL IDIOTS,RUSH IN AT THE HIGHEST????
FUND MANAGERS ARE ALL IDIOTS?LOVE TO RUSH IN AT 25,000 IN NOV2010,BUT WHEN THE PLUNGE TO 16100 COMES,WHY NO MORE REPORTS OF "FUNDS FLOW"??FUNDS WILLING TO PAY A PREMIUM OF 40% MORE TO GET THEMSELVES TIED UP????NEWS ARE HINTING FUND MANAGERS ARE ALL IDIOTS!!
NEWS RECAP IN RED COLOUR
9th nov 2012-"FISCAL KISS MY ASS HEATHCLIFF"
United States fiscal cliff
HAHAHA DONT SPEND ALSO WRONG.NOW SPEND TOO MUCH,GOT HUGE DEFICIT,ALSO WRONG.THEN HOW TO REVIVE ECONOMY?U KNOW HEATHCLIFF THE CAT??I RATHER SEE HEATHCLIFF THE CAT CARTOON THAN LISTEN TO ALL THESE SHIT ABOUT FISCAL CLIFF,USA PRES ELECTIONS,EUROPE CRISIS,USA SUBPRIME,CDO,SHIT
WHY WOULD THE USA GOVERNMENT WORRY ABOUT ITS HUGE DEBT WHEN ITS GDP IS ALSO VERY HIGH??FUCK NEWS!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio
In 2011 United States public debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100%. [1] The level of public debt in Japan in 2011 was 204% of GDP.[2] The level of public debt in Germany in the same year was 85% of GDP. [3] Almost a third of US public debt of USD 16 trillion is held by foreign countries, particularly China and Japan. [4] Conversely, less than 5% of Japanese public debt is held by foreign countries
Thursday, November 8, 2012
8th november 2012-BDI TRADING AT 1986 LEVELS IS SIMPLY SENSELESS.I DONT BELIEVE THE OVERSUPPLY OF SHIPS IN 2012 IS 50 TIMES MORE SERIOUS THAN 1986.HOW DO I DERIVE 50X?
BDI CYCLE LOWS IN 1986,1999,2012
CYCLE HIGHS IN 1995,2008
CHINA IS A BIG USER OF BDI FOR EXPORTS,AND IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS
CHINA GDP/CAPITA
1986 1995 1999 2008 2012
963 5000 7000 24000 approx 38000 in renminbi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_GDP_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China
USD INDEX (SINCE BDI IS IN USD)
1986 1995 1999 2008 2012
110 80 100 80 80 all figures approx and taken the mode and the average of these years
http://classic.tradingcharts.com/historical/US/2012/0/continuous.html
COMPARING 1986 CHINA GDP/CAPITA AND USD INDEX
BDI AT 2012 LOWS=1986 LOWS DONT MAKE SENSE AS CHINA GDP/CAPITA HAS INCREASED APPROX 40X AND USD INDEX HAS ALSO DECLINED BY 30%
40 X 1.3(AS USD INDEX RISE,BDI FELL,INVERSE RELATIONSHIP)=52X
I KNOW SHIPS ARE IN OVERSUPPLY BUT IS IT SO SERIOUS THAT IT WARRANTS BDI BACK AT 1986 LEVELS WHEN CHINA OPENED UP DOORS IN LESS THAN A DECADE.
I DO NOT BELIEVE SHIPS ARE 50X MORE IN OVERSUPPLY PROBLEM THAN 1986 TO WARRANT BDI AT 1986 LEVELS.
8th november 2012-i did not know bdi has such a "coincidental" trend of 13years!!
When reviewing the BDI from 1985, and using written reports on the shipping industry as far back as the early 1970′s, we believe we have uncovered a regular 13 year cycle. It appears every 13 years shipping rates make a cyclical low: 1973-1986-1999-2012. After the low is in place rates generally rise for the next 9 years, then decline 4 years into the next cyclical low. During the 9 year bull market, rates rise for 5 years, decline for 1 year, and then rise for another 3 years into the cyclical peak. In addition, in the early stages after the cyclical low, rates typically triple during the first 2-3 years. This is the recovery stage for the shipping industry.
From an OEW perspective. We count the 9 year rising Cycle as an Primary ABC wave advance. With each of the rising Primary waves dividing into three Major waves. The four year declining Cycle is a simple Primary ABC wave decline.
When we examine Primary wave C of this declining Cycle we observe a nearly completed pattern. Primary B topped in late 2009 at BDI 4661. Over the next several months there was an abc Major wave A decline into mid-2010 at BDI 1700. Then after a quick Major B wave advance to BDI 2995, a complex Major wave C was underway. Intermediate wave A, of Major C, bottomed in early 2011 at BDI 1043. Then Intermediate wave B topped in late 2011 at BDI 2173. After that, the only subdividing Intermediate wave decline of this down Cycle began. At the Feb12 BDI 647 low Minor waves 1, 2 and 3 had completed. Then after a Minor wave 4 rally into May12 at BDI 1165, a subdividing Minor wave 5 began. Currently, we can count three Minute waves into the recent BDI 661 low, with possibly Minute wave iv underway now. We will know for sure once we get an OEW uptrend confirmation.
Should this occur, all that will be required is one more downtrend to complete the entire 4 year down Cycle from 2008. That downtrend should end the bear market is dry bulk shipping rates. With three months left in the year, it appears the 4 year down Cycle should bottom before year end. When it does we would expect shipping rates to triple over the next two to three years. To track the BDI, on a daily basis, just scroll down page 9 using the following link: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/9.
above article was cut and paste from-http://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2012/09/dry-bulk-shipping-industry-2457234.html
8th november 2012-us markets plunged,but so what?did anything changed the bullishness?
1)HIT MY 1400 LOWEST TARGET
2)HIT THE LOWEST SUPPORT OF FLAG FORMATION OF CURRENT RETRACEMENT
3)ASIA DID NOT REACT VERY HUGE ON THE DOWNSIDE.
EG. HSI +0.7% ON WED,-1.3% TODAY,TOTAL DROP OVER TWO DAYS IS -0.6%
EG STI +0.6% ON WED,-0.9% TODAY,TOTAL DROP OVER TWO DAYS -0.3%
BUT USA SP500 ON TUES +0.8%,WED -2.4%,TOTAL DROP OVER TWO DAYS -1.6%!!
4)OH MY GOD,THE LAST FACTOR IS SO OBVIOUS TILL YOU MUST BE BLIND
VIX ONLY WENT UP BY A WIMPERING 8% ON A NIGHT WHEN DOW PLUNGE 300!!
NORMALLY WHEN DOW PLUNGE BY SO MUCH,THE VIX SHOULD GO UP BY >20%!!
IF THESE FOUR FACTORS AREN'T ENOUGH,THEN YOU SHOULD NOT ENTER THE STOCKMARKET AS YOU ALWAYS NEED THE MEDIA TO ROLL OUT THE RED CARPET FOR YOU,THAT TIME IS ALWAYS THE MOST DANGEROUS TIME TO ENTER LONG
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
7th november 2012-A TOTAL LOAD OF RUBBISH FROM NEWS ONCE AGAIN!!
i already said people who rely on news to decide which direction are true idiots,retards,morons who cannot even last one year in the stockmarket--------
"Analysts: Stocks Would Rally with Romney Victory
A Romney victory would fuel market expectations for broader tax cuts and a dismantling of regulations such as the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and the Affordable Care Act, known widely as Obamacare.
“Recent surveys suggest institutional investors believe that an Obama win would favor bonds, a Romney win, stocks,” Peter Buchanan, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, wrote in a note, according to MarketWatch.
Editor's Note: Economist Unapologetically Calls Out Bernanke, Obama for Mishandling Economy. See What They Did
Some sectors that would benefit from an Obama victory, such as alternative energy, healthcare and real estate, have trailed those sectors that would rally with a Romney victory, namely conventional energy, financials, defense and telecom, according to Buchanan.
“If you get a Romney win, it could be better for the market in the short-term, knee-jerk reaction, since it could be taken as being a more business and investment-friendly administration,” said Brian Lazorishak, a senior vice president of Chase Investment Counsel, according to CNNMoney.
“While the market might sell off on an Obama win, it’s hard to see how long that would last.”
Analysts at Barclays have forecast that an Obama victory would send safe-haven bond prices rising, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury falling to 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent now, MarketWatch added.
Yields move in reverse from bond prices.
Some overseas investors, however, tend to view an Obama victory as better for markets, as a change of leadership would fuel policy uncertainty.
“[Romney’s] election could lead to more political and economic uncertainties over the longer term as he would implement an ambitious tax reform, huge spending cuts [and] a tax plan favorable to the highest income based on a too-optimistic growth scenario that would produce uncertain effects on growth,” analysts at Franco-Belgian Dexia Asset Management said recently, according to Reuters."
Read more: Analysts: Stocks Would Rally with Romney Victory
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