compare the 1966-1982 bear market with 2000-2016??bear market many many similiarities.
1.the shape
2.the subprime bottom in 2008 looks exactly like the 1975,which made a lower low

LETS WELCOME THE SECULAR BULL IN THE US MARKET

Brian Kelly: QE2 Could Be Bullish for US Dollar
Published: Monday, 18 Oct 2010 | 11:35 AM ET Text Size By: Brian Kelly, "Fast" Contributor


On Friday, the financial markets were abuzz with the notion that Ben Bernanke stated “all other things being equal, there appears to be a case for more action.” The knee jerk reaction was predictable, the US Dollar fell and bonds climbed, however, by the end of the US trading session these trends had reversed … why?

I would point to other portions of Chairman Bernanke’s speech where he spoke about the risk and rewards of unconventional monetary policy. One of the most surprising admissions by the Chairman was that he did not know the ultimate impact of QE2. From the speech:

"One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public."

Perhaps this was simply refreshing honesty which the market is unaccustomed too after the Greenspeak era. However, the fact remains that the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, who did his doctoral work on the Great Depression and the deleterious impact of a waning money supply, is concerned about the unintended and unknown consequences of his actions. The financials markets have been expecting higher bond prices and a weaker dollar, but this expectation is flawed. Through QE2 the US Fed is attempting to spur financial speculation which they hope will foster real investment in property, plant, and equipment. By extension these facilities will need to be filled with workers and voila…unemployment drops.

Lower Bond Prices, Higher Yield

While the market has focused in the mechanism for QE2, i.e. asset purchases, it has completely ignored the primary tool used by the US Federal Reserve…communication. Chairman Bernanke, in numerous speeches and papers, has argued that Federal Reserve policy is not limited to interest rates and money supply, he suggests that the first step for policy makers is to communicate the Fed’ s intentions. If executed flawlessly, the Fed may not even need to write one buy ticket for Treasury securities. So has it worked?




The above chart illustrates market expectations for inflation over the next five years; it is simply the 5 year Treasury Rate minus the 5 year TIPs rate. As the chart shows, without buying a single Treasury Bill, Note or Bond, the US Fed has successfully increased inflation expectations from 1.2% to over 1.6%...in less than a month. At this pace, inflation expectations will be at 2% (the Fed’s target) by the time of the November FOMC meeting. The implication is that market expectations of a massive bond buying program could be incorrect. Furthermore, if financial speculation leads to real economic investment and hiring then further QE is not needed.

Impact on the Dollar

Without a massive bond buying program the linchpin of the dollar bear argument disappears - the Fed will not be “printing money” and will not destroy the dollar. In fact, QE2 could be bullish for the US dollar. The Fed’s verbal commitment to support asset prices coupled with its ability to buy assets should provide support in the US financial markets. Moreover, while yields may move slightly higher due to inflationary expectations the US stock market will remain relatively attractive as compared to bonds. Therefore, from an investor’s perspective US assets become attractive. The “Goldilocks” environment the Fed is attempting to create could result in foreign investor interest in the US markets as relatively low rates and the Bernanke “put option” make the US a safer place to invest. This foreign investment interest would be supportive of the US dollar. Moreover, as other countries attempt to weaken their currency the US dollar will strengthen, making US investments even more attractive.

How We Are Playing It

The simplest way to play a stronger US dollar is a long position in the US Dollar Bullish ETF [UUP 22.3193 -0.0207 (-0.09%) ]. This ETF gives an investor broad exposure to dollar strength; additionally, the US equity markets may need a period of adjustment to a stronger dollar. A strong US Dollar does not always mean lower stock prices; in fact if the Fed is successful the real economy will begin to improve. However, the current market mindset is that a strong dollar is bad for stock prices. It may take some time before the markets change their view and thus the direct currency play via UUP appears to be the most attractive investment.

Disclosure: Accounts managed by Kanundrum Capital are long UUP.


exactly my view

1st half in the sp500

666 to 950:mar09 to jun09(went thru the 200day MA)
950 to 870:jun 09 to jul09(retest the 200day MA and bounce off the 200day MA)
870 to 1150:jul09 to jan10
1150 to 1040:jan10 to feb10
1040 to 1220:feb10 to apr2010

IF WE EXTRAPOLATE THE SAME TREND into the 2nd half:lets see the stunning coincidence!

1040 to 1320:sept2010 to dec2010(go thru the 200 WEEK MA at currently around 1200)
1320 to 1240:dec2010 to jan 2011(the 200wk value will increase when sp500 goes up,around 1220-1240 then)
1240 to 1520:jan 2011 to jul2011
1520 to 1410:jul2011 to aug2011
1410 to 1590: aug2011 to oct2011

HOW COINCIDENTAL THE MANNER THAT SP500 AFTER THE CORRECTION IN DEC2010 WILL BOUNCE OFF THE 200WEEK MA THE SAME MANNER AS IT BOUNCES OFF THE 200DAY MA
PLUS the final value of the 2nd half will be also the same 1590 the all time highs!!!

More want transfer out of Singapore
By Elizabeth Soh
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/image/20101009/ST_17798250.jpg
A poster at an agency in Lucky Plaza advertises transfers for maids to Hong Kong. There, experienced maids can earn about double their pay here. -- ST PHOTO: NG SOR LUAN

THE 'maid crunch' may get worse, with agencies reporting a recent surge in inquiries from maids here who are hoping to transfer to places like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

As it is, employers here are already finding it more difficult to hire maids after the Philippine authorities recently tightened rules on Filipinos leaving for jobs abroad. The shortfall in supply could worsen with more maids here choosing to leave for other places, instead of renewing their contracts.

While such a trend is not new, maid agencies say they have noticed a surge in such inquiries this year. Of the 10 maid agencies polled by The Straits Times, eight say they have seen a 50 to 70 per cent jump in inquiries from maids in the past six months about transferring to places like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Said maid agent Agnes Tan, 46: 'Out of the 30 applications I handle each month, about 10 are overseas transfers, compared to fewer than five a month last year.'

Ms Shirley Ng, president of the Association of Employment Agencies Singapore, confirmed such a trend.

Better pay is a key pull factor. An Indonesian or Filipino maid with four to six years of experience can earn $800 in Hong Kong, compared to just $450 here.

With fewer maids heading to Singapore, agencies are also increasingly publicising such transfer services as an alternative source of revenue.

At Lucky Plaza, a sign on the door of one maid agency advertises: 'Quick transfer to Hong Kong, Higher Pay!'

Over at Orchard Plaza, a maid agency has pamphlets on its desk advertising transfers to places like Saudi Arabia, Spain and even Norway.

Maids have to fork out about $2,300 to $3,000 to pay for transfers. Agencies here take a cut of about $300 - roughly the same amount they make bringing in a maid to Singapore.

'The only way we can make money now is to cater to the needs of those already here,' said an agent who declined to be named.

Mrs Marylou Cuneta, 37, is a maid who left for Hong Kong in January after eight years here. She now earns about $900 a month - double what she used to make.

She told The Straits Times: 'I am very happy in my current job - but I know I would not have got it if I didn't work in Singapore first.'

Additional reporting by Teh Joo Lin


THIS IS MY MESSAGE TO SINGAPOREANS.DONT EVER THINK YOUR MONEY TOO BIG..RIDICULOUS.I HAVE HEARD OF CASES(my ex nus classmate) ONE MAID IN CHARGE OF A 6PEOPLE HOUSEHOLD,2STOREY HUDC,think what?pay very big?can even tell me maid dont do, can hire another one.soon, all maids will shun singapore,and only the lousy ones come here.want to have more children, live in bigger house,BE PREPARED TO PAY MORE!!
dont ever take maids for granted
IN HONGKONG,SMALLER HOUSE plus LOWER BIRTH RATE, plus HIGHER pay,who doesnt want?