呢位股癡 想話你知 咩叫股"賜" 咩叫股"辭"? 叻仔受賜 蠢仔必辭! 笑看風雲 定係瘋運? 利用風雲 享受瘋運 蠢仔風雲 變 成瘋暈 風雲必嚟 風雲必離
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Monday, December 21, 2009
My short summary on Mercator Lines (Singapore)
from forummer in channelnewsasia
Mercator Lines Singapore Ltd (MLS) is one of the largest fleet owners in the Indian dry bulk shipping market. It has a total of 14 ships in its fleet of which 11 are owned by the company. Mercator deals with the transport of iron ore and coal between China, Australia and India. It recently won a Vale contract to transport iron ore from Brazil to China using its new VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier). Most of its clients are repeat blue chips customers like the Tata Group, Ancelor Mittal Steel group, Cosco etc.
Mercator Group History
Mercator LS is a listed subsidiary of Mercator LL India (an Indian company) which offers full logistics solutions to their customers from load port to the point of usage in India. MLS provides support to the Mercator Group by transporting bulk commodities via sea transportation. Mercator LL India owns over 70% of MLS. A strong parent will benefit a young company such as MLS as it allows her to tap into the managerial experience of her parent or gain financial support through the issue of convertible bonds or rights to her parent in order to acquire more ships. Moreover, most of MLS blue chips Indian clients favour it due to its affiliation with Mercator India which is considered to be a large domestic Indian player. This is further possible due a non-competition pact between the 2 entities.
MLS Fleet
MLS's fleet size is 14 vessels - 11 owned and 3 chartered ships. One more chartered ship will be delivered next year for a 10 year charter. This will bring the fleet size to 15 vessels by 2010. MLS Fleet consist of 7 gearless vessels, 1 VLOC and 7 geared vessels. 'Geared Vessels' have on-board cranes, which facilitate loading and unloading in undeveloped ports, such as those in India and Indonesia. These vessels gives Mercator an edge over its competitors since it has one of the largest geared fleet in the region and most of its clients (Indonesia and India) ports do not have much modern facilities such as cranes. Its new VLOC will ply the Brazil-China route for the next 14 years as part of MLS's recent contract with Vale. MLS fleet is very young and modern since the average age of its owned fleet is merely 6 years. MLS fleet capacity is 1.29mil DWT (excluding the incoming vessel next year). This makes it the second largest dry bulk shipper listed here just behind STX PO.
MLS Operation Style
It is focused on India and other high growth markets, such as China. They have established a strong market presence in the transportation of coal into India having rapidly grown its fleet of 14 vessels hence enabling it to get repeat business from reputable customers such as Tata Power, Cosco, Mittal etc. Its recent contract win from Vale shows that it has truly matured from toddler to a matured adolescent; allowing it to venture to new growth markets and attracting new blue chip clients.
MLS main operations - i) transport ores from Brazil to China using its VLOC, ii) transport of coal from Australia and Indonesia to India thermal plants, iii) transport of iron ores from India to China.
In order to fulfill their operations, MLS often hedge their exposure to the spot markets by committing themselves to long term contracts with their clients. Currently MLS Management has limited their exposure to spot markets by securing long term charters for 70% of their fleet capacity. This gives the MLS a predictable source of cash flow while steering clear of the volatility of the BDI and freight rates. Hence despite a difficult freight rate environment, fleet utilization maintained above 99%. This is unlike Courage Marine which focuses solely on short term charters whereby its utilization rate is merely 70%. This is one of the reasons why MLS remains profitable this year unlike spot charters such as Courage Marine or STX PO.
MLS Long Term Charter -
a) Tata Power -> $320mil, 3-4 geared vessels to transport 3.2m tons of coal from Indonesia, June 08 - May 12.
b) Vale -> Transportation of iron ore from Brazil to China via VLOC, 14 year from May 09 - May 23, $209mil approx
c) Cosco -> Sept 09 - Aug 12, 1 vessel, $39.5K/day
d) Arcelor Mittal -> Sept 08 - Aug 10, 1 vessel, $60K/day
e) European Charter -> Jul 09 - Jun 10, 1 vessel, $15.19K/day
The first 3 contracts alone will guarantee a combined revenue of over $110mil for 2010 and 2011. This is over 60% of FY 2009 revenue. Hence, despite the volatility of the BDI, MLS is well prepared to remain profitable and well-capitalised due to her Management usage of long term charters. This also illustrates the Management desire for 70% of her revenues to be derived from long-term charters.
It must be noted that 2 of the charters expire next year. If the company is unable to get an extension from Mittal or a new contract from a different company, it will place a burden on MLS finances.
Mercator Financial Highlights
Mercator Financial Year ends at March 31. We are now in 3Q 2010 in MLS Financial Calendar.
From 2006 to 2009, Mercator has recorded excellent growths of revenue, net profits, margins and equity. Revenue shot up 3 fold while net profit was up a whooping 15 fold from 4 mil to over 75mil. This is evident in the rise of net margins from 8% to 40% in 2009. This is due to a decrease in freight chargers as initially MLS only chartered their ship. Only in 2008, did MLS number of owned ships outweight its chartered ships (7 to 5). The Management exercise of its option to purchase one of the chartered ships (Ocean Senang) and its purchase of new ships eventually led to a respectable 11 owned ships and 3 charted ships today. MLS has stabilised its ROE at the 20% level for the past 2 years.
In its 1H 10, its revenues has dipped 34% and net profits has plunged by 59% while margins are at 28% levels. The decrease in revenue is largely due to decline in spot market day rates and renewal of long term contracts at rates lower than the previous rates. Due to the above, Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rate per vessel per day for the half year ended September 30,2009 decreased to US$28,187 as compared to a TCE rate per day per vessel of US$48,327 for the corresponding half year in the previous year representing a decrease of 42%.
On the bright side, the total number of vessel operating days for the half year ended September 30, 2009 was 2,218 days compared with 2,089 days for the half year ended September 30, 2008. Moreover, its vessel hire charges for the half year ended September 30, 2009 decreased by 58% to US$7.1 million as compared to US$16.7 million for the half year ended September 30, 2008. This is due to a drop in hiring rates from shipping chartering companies.
After MLS IPO, its equity was 259 mil in 2008. It has managed to increase its equity to over 350mil in Sept 09. However liquidity and credit risk might be an issue. Its net current assets is negative for the first time in its history accompanied by a little over 14mil cash. Its total debts is 257mil (bank loans plus 13mil convertible bonds) of which 34mil are due this year. Its net debt to equity ratio is 0.69 slightly up from the previous year of 0.67. While its gross debt levels has been dropping over the past 2 years from 311 to 257 mil in Sept 09 due to its repayments, its net debt levels are rising. This is the result of MLS utilizing its cash to acquire more vessels.
MLS has a debt principal repayment commitment (excluding the CB) as follows-
FY 2010 - 19.4 mil
FY 2011 - 30.7 mil
FY 2012 - 25.7 mil
FY 2013 - 24.3 mil
FY 2015 - 23.6 mil
This would total up to over $124 mil. I am confident that MLS is able to meet its commitments as it commands high positive operating cashflow. For FY 08 and 09, its operating cashflow exceeded $100mil while 1H 10 recorded a cash inflow of $38mil. Since MLS has no more vessel acquisition plans for now, I believe most of operating cashflow will be diverted to debt repayments and other payables.
Share Price:
Its current share price is 30.5 SGD cents. Its annualised EPS for 2010 is USD 3.2 cents with a NAV of 28 USD cents. This means that it is trading at a PE of 6.9 and P/B of 0.79 with an annualised ROE of 11%. Considering that its fellow dry bulk counters (STX PO and Courage Marine) are in the red now, we cannot compare their PE ratios. STX PO P/B is 0.98 and Courage Marine P/B is 1.30. Since Mercator is profitable due to its long term charters, there is hardly any reason why it should be trading at such a valuation!
Outlook:
While the hey-days on Late 07- Mid 08 will not return for a long time, I do forsee a stable BDI between 3000-5000 levels for the next few years. There are 2 factors which affect the dry bulk industry - Supply of Ships and Demand of Commodities.
Demand - Emerging countries such as China and India require large amount of coal for their energy due to increased consumption from their growing population. Indian Goal 2012 seeks to have 10 000MW of energy from coal based plants. Current levels are only 5700MW hence there will be greater demands for coal from Australia and Indonesia. The real estate and property market in China is recovering rapidly with a 19% yoy growth in Aug. Floor space under construction has increased by over 22% yoy. This is due to greater housing demand from the Chinese population which will only grow stronger as they become more affluent and numbers increased. The property sector accounts for one-third of Chinese steel consumption so the demand for iron ore is sustainable in the long term. Hence the pace of contraction in the steel industry has narrowed sharply from almost 40% down to only 4.6% lower. India and Brazil are one of the largest exporters of iron ore to China. Since MLS has active dealings with both sides, it will benefit greatly from the demand boom.
Supply - Substantial number of ships have been cancelled/delayed or scrapped recently. As a result only around 40% of the 2009 orderbook was eventually delivered. Since this is expected to carry on in 2010, it will reduce the impact of vessel over-capacity in the near term. However the annual fleet growth will still be around 6%. Since the current BDI level already reflects this impact, I do not foresee any massive and prolonged drop in the current BDI level. This is one of the major risk in investing in Mercator – volatile spot rates.
Conclusion:
India and China needs coal to increase the power output for the increasing population and growing industries. Iron ore is needed to make steel to build up their economic infrastructure - ports, railways, bridges, roads and social infrastructures - houses and offices. In order to meet their demand, they need to utilize dry bulk carriers to transport the raw materials over from the supply zones like Indonesia and Australia. This is where Mercator comes in and this is why Mercator is still and will be profitable!
THE ONLY PROFITABLE SHIPPING COMPANY IN SGX
from forummer in channelnewsasia
Mercator Lines Singapore Ltd (MLS) is one of the largest fleet owners in the Indian dry bulk shipping market. It has a total of 14 ships in its fleet of which 11 are owned by the company. Mercator deals with the transport of iron ore and coal between China, Australia and India. It recently won a Vale contract to transport iron ore from Brazil to China using its new VLOC (Very Large Ore Carrier). Most of its clients are repeat blue chips customers like the Tata Group, Ancelor Mittal Steel group, Cosco etc.
Mercator Group History
Mercator LS is a listed subsidiary of Mercator LL India (an Indian company) which offers full logistics solutions to their customers from load port to the point of usage in India. MLS provides support to the Mercator Group by transporting bulk commodities via sea transportation. Mercator LL India owns over 70% of MLS. A strong parent will benefit a young company such as MLS as it allows her to tap into the managerial experience of her parent or gain financial support through the issue of convertible bonds or rights to her parent in order to acquire more ships. Moreover, most of MLS blue chips Indian clients favour it due to its affiliation with Mercator India which is considered to be a large domestic Indian player. This is further possible due a non-competition pact between the 2 entities.
MLS Fleet
MLS's fleet size is 14 vessels - 11 owned and 3 chartered ships. One more chartered ship will be delivered next year for a 10 year charter. This will bring the fleet size to 15 vessels by 2010. MLS Fleet consist of 7 gearless vessels, 1 VLOC and 7 geared vessels. 'Geared Vessels' have on-board cranes, which facilitate loading and unloading in undeveloped ports, such as those in India and Indonesia. These vessels gives Mercator an edge over its competitors since it has one of the largest geared fleet in the region and most of its clients (Indonesia and India) ports do not have much modern facilities such as cranes. Its new VLOC will ply the Brazil-China route for the next 14 years as part of MLS's recent contract with Vale. MLS fleet is very young and modern since the average age of its owned fleet is merely 6 years. MLS fleet capacity is 1.29mil DWT (excluding the incoming vessel next year). This makes it the second largest dry bulk shipper listed here just behind STX PO.
MLS Operation Style
It is focused on India and other high growth markets, such as China. They have established a strong market presence in the transportation of coal into India having rapidly grown its fleet of 14 vessels hence enabling it to get repeat business from reputable customers such as Tata Power, Cosco, Mittal etc. Its recent contract win from Vale shows that it has truly matured from toddler to a matured adolescent; allowing it to venture to new growth markets and attracting new blue chip clients.
MLS main operations - i) transport ores from Brazil to China using its VLOC, ii) transport of coal from Australia and Indonesia to India thermal plants, iii) transport of iron ores from India to China.
In order to fulfill their operations, MLS often hedge their exposure to the spot markets by committing themselves to long term contracts with their clients. Currently MLS Management has limited their exposure to spot markets by securing long term charters for 70% of their fleet capacity. This gives the MLS a predictable source of cash flow while steering clear of the volatility of the BDI and freight rates. Hence despite a difficult freight rate environment, fleet utilization maintained above 99%. This is unlike Courage Marine which focuses solely on short term charters whereby its utilization rate is merely 70%. This is one of the reasons why MLS remains profitable this year unlike spot charters such as Courage Marine or STX PO.
MLS Long Term Charter -
a) Tata Power -> $320mil, 3-4 geared vessels to transport 3.2m tons of coal from Indonesia, June 08 - May 12.
b) Vale -> Transportation of iron ore from Brazil to China via VLOC, 14 year from May 09 - May 23, $209mil approx
c) Cosco -> Sept 09 - Aug 12, 1 vessel, $39.5K/day
d) Arcelor Mittal -> Sept 08 - Aug 10, 1 vessel, $60K/day
e) European Charter -> Jul 09 - Jun 10, 1 vessel, $15.19K/day
The first 3 contracts alone will guarantee a combined revenue of over $110mil for 2010 and 2011. This is over 60% of FY 2009 revenue. Hence, despite the volatility of the BDI, MLS is well prepared to remain profitable and well-capitalised due to her Management usage of long term charters. This also illustrates the Management desire for 70% of her revenues to be derived from long-term charters.
It must be noted that 2 of the charters expire next year. If the company is unable to get an extension from Mittal or a new contract from a different company, it will place a burden on MLS finances.
Mercator Financial Highlights
Mercator Financial Year ends at March 31. We are now in 3Q 2010 in MLS Financial Calendar.
From 2006 to 2009, Mercator has recorded excellent growths of revenue, net profits, margins and equity. Revenue shot up 3 fold while net profit was up a whooping 15 fold from 4 mil to over 75mil. This is evident in the rise of net margins from 8% to 40% in 2009. This is due to a decrease in freight chargers as initially MLS only chartered their ship. Only in 2008, did MLS number of owned ships outweight its chartered ships (7 to 5). The Management exercise of its option to purchase one of the chartered ships (Ocean Senang) and its purchase of new ships eventually led to a respectable 11 owned ships and 3 charted ships today. MLS has stabilised its ROE at the 20% level for the past 2 years.
In its 1H 10, its revenues has dipped 34% and net profits has plunged by 59% while margins are at 28% levels. The decrease in revenue is largely due to decline in spot market day rates and renewal of long term contracts at rates lower than the previous rates. Due to the above, Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rate per vessel per day for the half year ended September 30,2009 decreased to US$28,187 as compared to a TCE rate per day per vessel of US$48,327 for the corresponding half year in the previous year representing a decrease of 42%.
On the bright side, the total number of vessel operating days for the half year ended September 30, 2009 was 2,218 days compared with 2,089 days for the half year ended September 30, 2008. Moreover, its vessel hire charges for the half year ended September 30, 2009 decreased by 58% to US$7.1 million as compared to US$16.7 million for the half year ended September 30, 2008. This is due to a drop in hiring rates from shipping chartering companies.
After MLS IPO, its equity was 259 mil in 2008. It has managed to increase its equity to over 350mil in Sept 09. However liquidity and credit risk might be an issue. Its net current assets is negative for the first time in its history accompanied by a little over 14mil cash. Its total debts is 257mil (bank loans plus 13mil convertible bonds) of which 34mil are due this year. Its net debt to equity ratio is 0.69 slightly up from the previous year of 0.67. While its gross debt levels has been dropping over the past 2 years from 311 to 257 mil in Sept 09 due to its repayments, its net debt levels are rising. This is the result of MLS utilizing its cash to acquire more vessels.
MLS has a debt principal repayment commitment (excluding the CB) as follows-
FY 2010 - 19.4 mil
FY 2011 - 30.7 mil
FY 2012 - 25.7 mil
FY 2013 - 24.3 mil
FY 2015 - 23.6 mil
This would total up to over $124 mil. I am confident that MLS is able to meet its commitments as it commands high positive operating cashflow. For FY 08 and 09, its operating cashflow exceeded $100mil while 1H 10 recorded a cash inflow of $38mil. Since MLS has no more vessel acquisition plans for now, I believe most of operating cashflow will be diverted to debt repayments and other payables.
Share Price:
Its current share price is 30.5 SGD cents. Its annualised EPS for 2010 is USD 3.2 cents with a NAV of 28 USD cents. This means that it is trading at a PE of 6.9 and P/B of 0.79 with an annualised ROE of 11%. Considering that its fellow dry bulk counters (STX PO and Courage Marine) are in the red now, we cannot compare their PE ratios. STX PO P/B is 0.98 and Courage Marine P/B is 1.30. Since Mercator is profitable due to its long term charters, there is hardly any reason why it should be trading at such a valuation!
Outlook:
While the hey-days on Late 07- Mid 08 will not return for a long time, I do forsee a stable BDI between 3000-5000 levels for the next few years. There are 2 factors which affect the dry bulk industry - Supply of Ships and Demand of Commodities.
Demand - Emerging countries such as China and India require large amount of coal for their energy due to increased consumption from their growing population. Indian Goal 2012 seeks to have 10 000MW of energy from coal based plants. Current levels are only 5700MW hence there will be greater demands for coal from Australia and Indonesia. The real estate and property market in China is recovering rapidly with a 19% yoy growth in Aug. Floor space under construction has increased by over 22% yoy. This is due to greater housing demand from the Chinese population which will only grow stronger as they become more affluent and numbers increased. The property sector accounts for one-third of Chinese steel consumption so the demand for iron ore is sustainable in the long term. Hence the pace of contraction in the steel industry has narrowed sharply from almost 40% down to only 4.6% lower. India and Brazil are one of the largest exporters of iron ore to China. Since MLS has active dealings with both sides, it will benefit greatly from the demand boom.
Supply - Substantial number of ships have been cancelled/delayed or scrapped recently. As a result only around 40% of the 2009 orderbook was eventually delivered. Since this is expected to carry on in 2010, it will reduce the impact of vessel over-capacity in the near term. However the annual fleet growth will still be around 6%. Since the current BDI level already reflects this impact, I do not foresee any massive and prolonged drop in the current BDI level. This is one of the major risk in investing in Mercator – volatile spot rates.
Conclusion:
India and China needs coal to increase the power output for the increasing population and growing industries. Iron ore is needed to make steel to build up their economic infrastructure - ports, railways, bridges, roads and social infrastructures - houses and offices. In order to meet their demand, they need to utilize dry bulk carriers to transport the raw materials over from the supply zones like Indonesia and Australia. This is where Mercator comes in and this is why Mercator is still and will be profitable!
THE ONLY PROFITABLE SHIPPING COMPANY IN SGX
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
DOW10471.5065.67+0.63%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P1106.414.06+0.37%
S&P 500 Index
NAS2190.31-0.55-0.03%
Nasdaq Composite
VIX21.59-0.73-3.27%
CBOE Volatility index
CURRENCIES--LOOK AT HOW USD SURGES UP WITH US STOCKS UP!!
IDIOTS WILL BELIEVE THE TREND USD DOWN, US STOCKS UP WILL NEVER CHANGE..they will be the sacrificial lambs when fed meets on 16dec 2009
Euro1.4615-0.0117-0.79%
Yen89.10.90+1.02%
Pound1.626-0.0017-0.1%
FRANC1.03420.0084+0.82%
CANADA1.060.0085+0.81%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P1106.414.06+0.37%
S&P 500 Index
NAS2190.31-0.55-0.03%
Nasdaq Composite
VIX21.59-0.73-3.27%
CBOE Volatility index
CURRENCIES--LOOK AT HOW USD SURGES UP WITH US STOCKS UP!!
IDIOTS WILL BELIEVE THE TREND USD DOWN, US STOCKS UP WILL NEVER CHANGE..they will be the sacrificial lambs when fed meets on 16dec 2009
Euro1.4615-0.0117-0.79%
Yen89.10.90+1.02%
Pound1.626-0.0017-0.1%
FRANC1.03420.0084+0.82%
CANADA1.060.0085+0.81%
why is EVERY ECONOMIC CRISES AND RECOVERY SELF DIRECTED AND SELF ACTED BY THE GOVERNMENT?
let me explain to you the mechanisms behind every crises and recovery..
1.stock market ramped up for economy to boom..
2.stockmarket ramped up furiously in last stages to enable BIG players to get out and drag idiots in in FINAL stages of stockmarket boom..economy just boomed then, everybody has BIG bonuses, want to START buying stocks.
3.BIG players DISTRIBUTE to them..ramped up furiously is to "create" euphoria and "more space" to short ALL the way down later..
4. after stockmarket peak comes the CRASH,MASSIVE SHORTING time!!!
5.due to shorting needs TO PAY interest per annum and at the most only 100 percent gain(if stock market crash to zero--hahaha),as compared to bull markets,where by gains can be 1000percent or even more, THAT EXPLAINS WHY A BEAR MARKET IS ALWAYS SHORTER THAN BULL MARKETS
6. after massive shorting of stockmarkets come UNEMPLOYMENT in the economy due to LISTED companies share price tumble, retrench staff to cut costs,thru multiplier effect,it spreads to whole world and all industries.
7.after stockmarket hits what the lift operators target of bottom, lift operators started buying back,at this time STRANGELY,government will step in to "HELP" the affected companies(BUT MUST BE BIGGEST IN MARKET CAP),SMALLER ONES CAN go and die,FOR FUCK THEY CARE,eg lehmann brothers
8.Strangely, central banks will also start printing money to "create" a recovery..just empty money created from nowhere to "INFLATE" the markets and hence the economy back up.
9. after pushing up,the government has to take back the EXCESSIVE printing of money ,otherwise massive inflation will thus result..so they take back slowly,raising interest rates and taxes GRADUALLY(because taking money from citizens is much harder than GIVING money to them,many countries citizens will revolt)
that also adds to the fact why bull markets are "LONGER" LASTING THAN BEAR MARKETS--
BECAUSE GOVERNMENTS IN WORLD NEED "longer" time to take back the excessive money..
10. and the whole CYCLE REPEATS
the end of my thorough analysis of ECONOMIC KELONG "CRISIS" AND "RECOVERY"
I SAW VERY CLEAR FROM THIS SUBPRIME THAT ECONOMIC CRISES AND RECOVERY ARE ALL MANMADE..
WHEN SOMETHING IS SO PREDICTABLE--I PREDICTED THE MARCH BOTTOM AND THE TRENDS CHANGING--it is so ARTIFICIAL THAT I WANT TO PUKE!!!!
self directed and self acted drama serial
let me explain to you the mechanisms behind every crises and recovery..
1.stock market ramped up for economy to boom..
2.stockmarket ramped up furiously in last stages to enable BIG players to get out and drag idiots in in FINAL stages of stockmarket boom..economy just boomed then, everybody has BIG bonuses, want to START buying stocks.
3.BIG players DISTRIBUTE to them..ramped up furiously is to "create" euphoria and "more space" to short ALL the way down later..
4. after stockmarket peak comes the CRASH,MASSIVE SHORTING time!!!
5.due to shorting needs TO PAY interest per annum and at the most only 100 percent gain(if stock market crash to zero--hahaha),as compared to bull markets,where by gains can be 1000percent or even more, THAT EXPLAINS WHY A BEAR MARKET IS ALWAYS SHORTER THAN BULL MARKETS
6. after massive shorting of stockmarkets come UNEMPLOYMENT in the economy due to LISTED companies share price tumble, retrench staff to cut costs,thru multiplier effect,it spreads to whole world and all industries.
7.after stockmarket hits what the lift operators target of bottom, lift operators started buying back,at this time STRANGELY,government will step in to "HELP" the affected companies(BUT MUST BE BIGGEST IN MARKET CAP),SMALLER ONES CAN go and die,FOR FUCK THEY CARE,eg lehmann brothers
8.Strangely, central banks will also start printing money to "create" a recovery..just empty money created from nowhere to "INFLATE" the markets and hence the economy back up.
9. after pushing up,the government has to take back the EXCESSIVE printing of money ,otherwise massive inflation will thus result..so they take back slowly,raising interest rates and taxes GRADUALLY(because taking money from citizens is much harder than GIVING money to them,many countries citizens will revolt)
that also adds to the fact why bull markets are "LONGER" LASTING THAN BEAR MARKETS--
BECAUSE GOVERNMENTS IN WORLD NEED "longer" time to take back the excessive money..
10. and the whole CYCLE REPEATS
the end of my thorough analysis of ECONOMIC KELONG "CRISIS" AND "RECOVERY"
I SAW VERY CLEAR FROM THIS SUBPRIME THAT ECONOMIC CRISES AND RECOVERY ARE ALL MANMADE..
WHEN SOMETHING IS SO PREDICTABLE--I PREDICTED THE MARCH BOTTOM AND THE TRENDS CHANGING--it is so ARTIFICIAL THAT I WANT TO PUKE!!!!
self directed and self acted drama serial
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Bubble tea is back!
October 11th, 2009
If you don’t know what bubble tea is, we’re talking about something you need to try! It goes by various names in English and usually includes a few of the following words: frothy Taiwan-style pearl tapioca milk tea! In Cantonese, there are a couple of names, but the most common is pronounced something like ‘zun (rhymes with gun) ju lai cha’. (Say it fast enough and it won’t make a difference!)
Ten years ago there were bubble-tea places all over the city. Walking around Hong Kong, a few could be found in every major neighborhood. But last year when I had a craving, I had to criss-cross the city just to get a tea. What happened?
As a business, tea houses which serve bubble tea and side snacks (such as the delicious pillow toast,) have had a difficult time maintaining profitability. Once again, Hong Kong’s high rents are a spoiler of our collective good time. You can still find branches of Saint’s Alp and RBT, (two popular chains,) but the sit-down type locations aren’t anywhere near as common as they once were.
The plot thickens…
At the beginning of summer, I started noticing long lines forming on the street in new places. Taking a closer look, people were walking away holding cups with fat straws – a tell-tale sign of bubble tea!
This time around they’ve changed their format and have come back as drink stalls. Selling bubble tea from drink stands appears to be more efficient. Now they can fit into smaller, pedestrian-heavy ground-floor locations, rather than rely on space in expensive shopping centers. Gone are the seats and kitchen, which drag down the ratio of profit per square-foot. Neighborhoods such as Mongkok, Wanchai, and Causeway Bay all boast several new outlets.
Besides an increase in locations, another positive for consumers is that the prices for drinks seem to be slightly lower than before. Perhaps this is just an introductory offer to get people hooked again!
Quick tip: go with the most basic flavor. (In winter, try a hot one!) Stay away from the fruit choices, which seem to lean heavily towards artificial colors and flavors.
Bubble tea is definitely one of small pleasures of life in Hong Kong! Welcome back!
MY NEXT HUAT BUSINESS!!!
Container shipper Neptune Orient Lines says for the 4 weeks from Oct 17 to Nov 13 (Period 11), container shipping volumes increased 23% y-o-y to 208,000 FEU (Forty-foot Equivalent Unit) while average revenue per FEU declined 28% y-o-y to US$2,239 ($3,109).
The increase in volume was mainly due to higher volumes lifted in several trade lanes. Lower average revenue per FEU was due to lower core freight rates and lower bunker recovery.
news at 5.19pm 7th dec 2009
after market closes
FROM BLOOMBERG
Yen, Dollar Rise on Rate Outlook, Gold Falls Most in 14 Months Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Justin Carrigan
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened and the dollar rose to its highest level in a month against the euro as investors weighed whether the world economy is recovering fast enough to warrant higher central bank interest rates. Gold headed for the steepest two-day retreat since October 2008.
The yen advanced against all 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg at 10:21 a.m. in New York. The dollar gained versus 13. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped for a second straight day as Dubai’s equity index plunged 5.8 percent to a four-month low. Gold fell 2.1 percent in New York, while crude oil dropped a fourth consecutive day. European equities fell, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks today for the first time since the Dec. 4 U.S. employment report signaled a surprise drop in the jobless rate, stoking expectations the Fed may raise rates sooner than economists had anticipated. Investors are concerned banks may have to increase writedowns that have reached $1.7 trillion worldwide since the credit crunch began, as Dubai World seeks to delay payment on $26 billion of debt.
“On the U.S. dollar front we now have an early indication on the level of volatility that a shift in monetary policy can trigger,” Khurram Butt, in the Treasury sales division of Europe Arab Bank Plc in London, wrote in a client note. “Before the job report, the chances of a June Federal Reserve rate hike was implied at only 35 percent, but this jumped to above 50 percent after the unemployment number came out.”
Yen, Dollar Gain
The yen rose most against higher-yielding currencies, advancing 1.5 percent versus the New Zealand dollar. The U.S. dollar traded at its highest level since Nov. 4 versus the euro, extending gains made at the end of last week that followed the U.S. employment report.
Treasury two-year notes advanced on speculation Bernanke may try to damp optimism about the strength of the economic recovery in his speech today. The benchmark two-year note yield fell two basis points to 0.81 percent.
The U.S. lost 11,000 jobs in November, less than the 125,000 median forecast of 82 economists in a Bloomberg survey, the Labor Department said Dec. 4. Fed-funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed today a 16 percent probability the central bank will increase its benchmark overnight rate to at least 0.5 percent by March, up from 11 percent a week ago.
Gold futures for February delivery in New York extended their decline since Dec. 3 to 6 percent, falling to $1,145 an ounce as the Dollar Index’s advance curbed the metal’s appear as an alternative asset.
Four-Day Retreat
Crude oil futures slumped 1.3 percent and have now lost 4.9 percent since Dec. 1. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities declined for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since August.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index sank the most among benchmark equity indexes worldwide. The measure has tumbled 17 percent since Dubai announced on Nov. 25 that state- owned Dubai World would ask creditors for a “standstill” agreement on its debt, including property company Nakheel PJSC’s $3.5 billion bond due for repayment in a week.
Russia’s Micex Index dropped 1.4 percent as oil company OAO Rosneft sank on falling crude prices. South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Shares Index declined 0.9 percent, after gold producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. retreated 3.7 percent.
Europe, U.S. Stocks
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, the benchmark for European stocks, slumped 0.3 percent. Fresnillo Plc, the world’s largest primary silver producer, and Xstrata Plc led basic-resources producers lower in London, losing more than 1.1 percent. Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, slipped 1.8 percent in Frankfurt after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,108.10, adding to last week’s 1.3 percent advance. Cigna Corp. added 5.1 percent, leading gains among health-care companies, after Goldman Sachs lifted its industry rating to “attractive,” citing cheap shares and “limited downside risk under likely outcomes for health reform legislation.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Carrigan in London at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 7, 2009 10:31 EST
WHAT DID I TELL YOU??THE TREND HJAS JUST STARTED TO CHANGE FROM USD DOWN, US STCK MKT UP, TO USD UP, US STCKS UP!!
PLUS BDI SURGE PAST 4100 AGAIN!!gd for dry bulk like stx and mercator
good news always happen at strange points!!!same as when sti at 2k!!
The increase in volume was mainly due to higher volumes lifted in several trade lanes. Lower average revenue per FEU was due to lower core freight rates and lower bunker recovery.
news at 5.19pm 7th dec 2009
after market closes
FROM BLOOMBERG
Yen, Dollar Rise on Rate Outlook, Gold Falls Most in 14 Months Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Justin Carrigan
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened and the dollar rose to its highest level in a month against the euro as investors weighed whether the world economy is recovering fast enough to warrant higher central bank interest rates. Gold headed for the steepest two-day retreat since October 2008.
The yen advanced against all 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg at 10:21 a.m. in New York. The dollar gained versus 13. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped for a second straight day as Dubai’s equity index plunged 5.8 percent to a four-month low. Gold fell 2.1 percent in New York, while crude oil dropped a fourth consecutive day. European equities fell, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks today for the first time since the Dec. 4 U.S. employment report signaled a surprise drop in the jobless rate, stoking expectations the Fed may raise rates sooner than economists had anticipated. Investors are concerned banks may have to increase writedowns that have reached $1.7 trillion worldwide since the credit crunch began, as Dubai World seeks to delay payment on $26 billion of debt.
“On the U.S. dollar front we now have an early indication on the level of volatility that a shift in monetary policy can trigger,” Khurram Butt, in the Treasury sales division of Europe Arab Bank Plc in London, wrote in a client note. “Before the job report, the chances of a June Federal Reserve rate hike was implied at only 35 percent, but this jumped to above 50 percent after the unemployment number came out.”
Yen, Dollar Gain
The yen rose most against higher-yielding currencies, advancing 1.5 percent versus the New Zealand dollar. The U.S. dollar traded at its highest level since Nov. 4 versus the euro, extending gains made at the end of last week that followed the U.S. employment report.
Treasury two-year notes advanced on speculation Bernanke may try to damp optimism about the strength of the economic recovery in his speech today. The benchmark two-year note yield fell two basis points to 0.81 percent.
The U.S. lost 11,000 jobs in November, less than the 125,000 median forecast of 82 economists in a Bloomberg survey, the Labor Department said Dec. 4. Fed-funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed today a 16 percent probability the central bank will increase its benchmark overnight rate to at least 0.5 percent by March, up from 11 percent a week ago.
Gold futures for February delivery in New York extended their decline since Dec. 3 to 6 percent, falling to $1,145 an ounce as the Dollar Index’s advance curbed the metal’s appear as an alternative asset.
Four-Day Retreat
Crude oil futures slumped 1.3 percent and have now lost 4.9 percent since Dec. 1. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities declined for a fourth day, the longest losing streak since August.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index sank the most among benchmark equity indexes worldwide. The measure has tumbled 17 percent since Dubai announced on Nov. 25 that state- owned Dubai World would ask creditors for a “standstill” agreement on its debt, including property company Nakheel PJSC’s $3.5 billion bond due for repayment in a week.
Russia’s Micex Index dropped 1.4 percent as oil company OAO Rosneft sank on falling crude prices. South Africa’s FTSE/JSE Africa All Shares Index declined 0.9 percent, after gold producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. retreated 3.7 percent.
Europe, U.S. Stocks
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, the benchmark for European stocks, slumped 0.3 percent. Fresnillo Plc, the world’s largest primary silver producer, and Xstrata Plc led basic-resources producers lower in London, losing more than 1.1 percent. Siemens AG, Europe’s biggest engineering company, slipped 1.8 percent in Frankfurt after Morgan Stanley cut its recommendation.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,108.10, adding to last week’s 1.3 percent advance. Cigna Corp. added 5.1 percent, leading gains among health-care companies, after Goldman Sachs lifted its industry rating to “attractive,” citing cheap shares and “limited downside risk under likely outcomes for health reform legislation.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Justin Carrigan in London at jcarrigan@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 7, 2009 10:31 EST
WHAT DID I TELL YOU??THE TREND HJAS JUST STARTED TO CHANGE FROM USD DOWN, US STCK MKT UP, TO USD UP, US STCKS UP!!
PLUS BDI SURGE PAST 4100 AGAIN!!gd for dry bulk like stx and mercator
good news always happen at strange points!!!same as when sti at 2k!!
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Saturday, December 5, 2009
hi all based on last night actions,very clear that this leg will be the leg to push sp500 back to usual highs 1576
may i recall 1st leg of subprime:
usd drop, us stcks down, oil went up
excuse:oil hedge against falling usd
real mechanism:oil did not spike up during stckmkt bull run
leg 2 of subprime:
usd drop, oil drop, us stcks drop
excuse:recession fears dampen oil demand
real mechanism:it is very profitable to short oil down at usd 147
RECOVERY:
leg 1 of recovery:
usd drop, us stcks rise, oil rise
excuse:us govt print a lot of money for bailout package,economy dropping at slower pace
real mechanism:oil shorts are being covererd as oil plunge very quick and too fast
sp500 value from 666 to 1120-460points
leg 2 of recovery:
usd RISE,us stcks rise,oil rise WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO and excuse
add 460 to 1120 gives 1570, the all time highs of sp500
real mechanisms behind excuse:usd shorts are being covered together with US economy strengthening..
BY THE TIME INTEREST RATES IN USA RISE, USD WILL HAVE PEAKED or go up more gradual hahaha
this is LAST NIGHT EVIDENCE:
COMMODITIES > KEY COMMODITIES
More: Key Commodities | Energy | Metals | Agriculture | Livestock | Index | Rates | CurrenciesENERGY FUTURES
CRUDE OIL75.47-0.99-1.29%
NATURAL GAS4.5860.127+2.85%
RBOB GASOLINE1.975-0.018-0.9%
BRENT CRUDE77.740.22+0.28%
Current DateTime: 02:41:49 05 Dec 2009
LinksList Documentid: 33282388
More Energy Futures
METAL FUTURES
GOLD1162.5-55.80-4.58%
SILVER1848.5-61.70-3.23%
COPPER318.9-3.05-0.95%
PLATINUM1445.8-47.90-3.21%
Current DateTime: 02:42:13 05 Dec 2009
LinksList Documentid: 33282094
More Metal Futures
DOLLAR INDEX
usd INDEX 75.85 +1.58percent
EURO1.4827 -0.0263 -1.74%
us stocks
DOW10388.898422.75+0.22%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P1105.986.0601+0.55%
S&P 500 Index
NAS2194.3521.21+0.98%
Nasdaq Composite
VIX21.25
I WILL NEVER BE SURPRISED IF MONDAY,7th december 2009, US STCK MARKET SURGE UP
may i recall 1st leg of subprime:
usd drop, us stcks down, oil went up
excuse:oil hedge against falling usd
real mechanism:oil did not spike up during stckmkt bull run
leg 2 of subprime:
usd drop, oil drop, us stcks drop
excuse:recession fears dampen oil demand
real mechanism:it is very profitable to short oil down at usd 147
RECOVERY:
leg 1 of recovery:
usd drop, us stcks rise, oil rise
excuse:us govt print a lot of money for bailout package,economy dropping at slower pace
real mechanism:oil shorts are being covererd as oil plunge very quick and too fast
sp500 value from 666 to 1120-460points
leg 2 of recovery:
usd RISE,us stcks rise,oil rise WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO and excuse
add 460 to 1120 gives 1570, the all time highs of sp500
real mechanisms behind excuse:usd shorts are being covered together with US economy strengthening..
BY THE TIME INTEREST RATES IN USA RISE, USD WILL HAVE PEAKED or go up more gradual hahaha
this is LAST NIGHT EVIDENCE:
COMMODITIES > KEY COMMODITIES
More: Key Commodities | Energy | Metals | Agriculture | Livestock | Index | Rates | CurrenciesENERGY FUTURES
CRUDE OIL75.47-0.99-1.29%
NATURAL GAS4.5860.127+2.85%
RBOB GASOLINE1.975-0.018-0.9%
BRENT CRUDE77.740.22+0.28%
Current DateTime: 02:41:49 05 Dec 2009
LinksList Documentid: 33282388
More Energy Futures
METAL FUTURES
GOLD1162.5-55.80-4.58%
SILVER1848.5-61.70-3.23%
COPPER318.9-3.05-0.95%
PLATINUM1445.8-47.90-3.21%
Current DateTime: 02:42:13 05 Dec 2009
LinksList Documentid: 33282094
More Metal Futures
DOLLAR INDEX
usd INDEX 75.85 +1.58percent
EURO1.4827 -0.0263 -1.74%
us stocks
DOW10388.898422.75+0.22%
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P1105.986.0601+0.55%
S&P 500 Index
NAS2194.3521.21+0.98%
Nasdaq Composite
VIX21.25
I WILL NEVER BE SURPRISED IF MONDAY,7th december 2009, US STCK MARKET SURGE UP
Mercator Lines (Rs 65): Buy
Mercator Lines can touch target of Rs 87: Emkay
9 Oct 2009, 1215 hrs IST, ET Bureau
MUMBAI: Emkay Global Financial Services expects Mercator Lines to touch target of Rs 87 on the upside.
“Mercator Lines is breaking out of an ascending triangle and daily momentum has started to pick up. The volumes have been very encouraging on breakout, also note that how volumes have expanded into rallies since July hinting at accumulation over last few months. The stock should target Rs 87 with reversals at Rs 55.7,” the recommendation said.
ANOTHER ANALYST
We recommend a buy in Mercator Lines from a short-term horizon. It is perceptible from the charts of the stock that since its March low of Rs 21 the stock has been on an intermediate-term uptrend. However, after encountering resistance at Rs 76 in June, the stock went through a medium-term correction till the July low of Rs 42. Later, the stock resumed its uptrend, taking support in the Rs 42-45 band. In mid-September, it crossed the 21-day and 50-day moving averages and is currently trading way above them. On October 8, the stock jumped 9 per cent, accompanied by high volumes and began to shape a flag pattern. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is featuring in the bullish zone and the weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this zone. Both the daily and weekly moving average convergence and divergence indicators are hovering in positive territory. Taking into consideration that the stock’s intermediate-term uptrend-line is intact we are bullish from a short-term perspective. We expect it to move up until it hits our price target of Rs 72. Traders with a short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 61.5.
Yoganand D.
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/10/14/stories/2009101450550200.htm
source:
Block deal in Mercator Lines
Mumbai, Aug. 26 The shares of Mercator Lines were in the limelight on Wednesday, after a block deal of 51.75 lakh shares was reported on the BSE. The shares were bought by Albulla Investments Funds from Mavi Investment Fund Ltd at Rs 56.5 a share. Mavi Investment Fund Ltd holds 2.19 per cent stake in the company. However, no further information was given. Around 89.43 lakh shares were traded during the day. The Mercator stock touched an intra-day high of Rs 62.25 and closed 9.33 per cent higher at Rs 61.50 on the BSE. - Our Bureau
Mercator Lines targets 30 mt from Mozambique coal mine
Varada Bhat
Mumbai, June 10 2009
Mercator Lines, India’s second largest private shipping company, has targeted production of 30 million tonnes (mt) of coal from its Mozambique mine once its starts production. The mine has estimated recoverable reserves of one billion tonnes.
But the date of actual production is still some time away, and sources say it is expected to kick off in 2010.
“We are still carrying out feasibility studies to develop the infrastructure needed. It will take us some time as it is a large asset and we a need lot of investments to produce 2.5 million tonnes every month,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Chairman, Mercator Lines, told Business Line.
Without offering the financial details, he reiterated that the company had enough funds for the project.
Mining sector foray
Mercator recently entered the coal mining sector by acquiring three mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique as part of its backward integration initiative.
“We were into transportation and handling of coal. So we decided to get into coal mining,” said Mr Mittal.
The company plans to produce 1.5-2 mt of coal this fiscal from its Indonesian mines which started production a year ago.
“We have started with small mines to get the experience and will, in the future, ramp up production to 10 mt,” he added.
Mercator reported income of Rs 76.90 crore from its coal mining business in 2008-09, its first year of operations.
Freight revenue
According to a shipping analyst, with the global freight market remaining dampened, these businesses will de-risk the company’s earnings from the cyclicality related to shipping freight revenues.
“This will provide revenue generation through sale of coal in domestic/international markets and its transhipment through its own ships,” he said.
Mercator posts 15% rise in net
Mumbai, May 20
Long-term contracts have helped Mercator Lines post a 14.9 per cent increase in net profit for 2008-09 despite the collapse in the dry bulk shipping market last year. Net profit for the year ending March 31, 2009 was up at Rs 376.45 crore from Rs 327.65 crore last year. Total income increased by 45.11 per cent to Rs 2,248.82 crore (Rs 1,549.72 crore), said a statement from Mercator. “Despite a weak economic environment and depressed freight rates, Mercator has delive red good results,” said Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman, in a press release. During the year, the company started its coal mining activities which generated revenue of Rs 77 crore.
– Our Bureau
Mercator to sharpen focus on dredging, coal mining
Has acquired mines in Indonesia, Mozambique.
Amit Mitra
Mumbai April 16 With the global freight market remaining dampened due to recessionary trends, Mercator Lines, India’s second largest private shipping company, has decided to sharpen focus on its other businesses — dredging and coal mining.
The company recently entered the coal mining sector by acquiring three mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique, as part of its backward integration initiative. “We are into transportation and handling of coal. So we decided to get into coal mining,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Chairman of Mercator Lines, told Business Line.
The company plans to produce between 1.5 million tonnes (mt) and 2 mt of coal from its Indonesia mines in the current fiscal. “Over the next three to four years, we will be ramping up production to 10 mt tonnes through acquisition of more mines,” Mr Mittal said.
The Mozambique mine, where production is yet to start, is spread over an area of 180-sq.km, with estimated recoverable reserve of one billion tonnes.
To acquire more dredgers
The company also plans to enhance its focus on dredging business, seeing major opportunities in the domestic dredging market as Indian ports plan to expand capacities and new ports are in the pipeline. It plans to add two new dredgers to its fleet of four in the current quarter — at a cost of $110 million.
Within the next three years, Mercator plans to expand its dredging fleet to 10, which will include both cutter suction and trailer suction dredgers. Earlier, the company leased out the dredgers to Dredging Corporation of India (DCI), but now it operates these vessels on its own.
The company has not postponed its acquisition plans despite recessionary trends. “On the contrary, we feel this is the best time to buy assets. Lots of second-hand ships are available at much lower prices as compared to some months ago,” said Mr Mittal. .
Ships can be purchased at prices 20 to 50 per cent lower depending on the category of vessels. New ships at different shipyards were also available, as the owners could not pursue expansion plans due to tight liquidity position.
The company, which spent $310 million to acquire new assets, including a very large crude carrier, will be buying a few bulk carriers this fiscal. Financing, however, was still a problem, he said.
Sharp fall in tanker rates
While the dry bulk market is showing some signs of improvement, tanker rates fell sharply in the last three months. The average charter rate for a VLCC fell from $44,065 per day in January 2009 to $30,672 in February and $25,177 in March. On April 8, the VLCC rate was ruling at about $10,536 per day.
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the dry bulk freight rates, increased from 1818 in February 2009 to 1958 in March. The rates are just about sufficient to meet the operating costs of shipping companies, say industry analysts.
Mercator Lines plans to acquire more oil rigs
Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman of the company, made it clear that the company had no immediate plans to acquire offshore supply vessels or multi-purpose supply vessels required by the oil sector.
Santanu Sanyal
Kolkata, May 20 Mercator Lines has before it a proposal for acquiring more oil rigs.
“We are already having one jack-up rig built at Keppel in Singapore and we’re considering more acquisitions, preferably by way of outright purchase,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman of the company, told Business Line.
“To have a new rig built in a yard will take at least three years, an option which perhaps can be dispensed with in favour of outright purchase of newly-built readily available in the market.”
Exploring market
As he felt, there might be no dearth of newly-built equipment for immediate acquisition but only at a price. “In-chartering of old equipment is not so much in our view, but then, we’re exploring the market and keeping our options open,” Mr Mittal observed.
He, however, made it clear that the company had no immediate plans to acquire OSVs (offshore supply vessels) or MSVs (multi-purpose supply vessels) required by the oil sector.
“Our priority is clear: we’ll go for high value large assets,” he added.
Oil sector
The growing Indian oil sector, as Mr Mittal pointed out, was holding out promise. “But that does not mean that our proposed acquisitions will be deployed only in India,” he said, adding, “whosoever, anywhere in the world, gives the best price will get our equipment”.
The jack-up rig being built in Singapore will be delivered in March 2009 and will cost $190 million and its deployment has already been firmed up for three years.
Mercator Lines, as the Chairman pointed out, was essentially a shipping firm, the second largest private sector shipping company in the country, with a diversified fleet comprising 20 vessels, including nine tankers (total tonnage 1.04 million dwt), eight bulk carriers (0.61 million dwt) and three dredgers (combined capacity 20,000 cbm).
The company’s acquisition of dredgers is a recent development and all the three dredgers have been placed with the Dredging Corporation of India for employment.
Mercator Lines can touch target of Rs 87: Emkay
9 Oct 2009, 1215 hrs IST, ET Bureau
MUMBAI: Emkay Global Financial Services expects Mercator Lines to touch target of Rs 87 on the upside.
“Mercator Lines is breaking out of an ascending triangle and daily momentum has started to pick up. The volumes have been very encouraging on breakout, also note that how volumes have expanded into rallies since July hinting at accumulation over last few months. The stock should target Rs 87 with reversals at Rs 55.7,” the recommendation said.
ANOTHER ANALYST
We recommend a buy in Mercator Lines from a short-term horizon. It is perceptible from the charts of the stock that since its March low of Rs 21 the stock has been on an intermediate-term uptrend. However, after encountering resistance at Rs 76 in June, the stock went through a medium-term correction till the July low of Rs 42. Later, the stock resumed its uptrend, taking support in the Rs 42-45 band. In mid-September, it crossed the 21-day and 50-day moving averages and is currently trading way above them. On October 8, the stock jumped 9 per cent, accompanied by high volumes and began to shape a flag pattern. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is featuring in the bullish zone and the weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this zone. Both the daily and weekly moving average convergence and divergence indicators are hovering in positive territory. Taking into consideration that the stock’s intermediate-term uptrend-line is intact we are bullish from a short-term perspective. We expect it to move up until it hits our price target of Rs 72. Traders with a short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 61.5.
Yoganand D.
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/10/14/stories/2009101450550200.htm
source:
Block deal in Mercator Lines
Mumbai, Aug. 26 The shares of Mercator Lines were in the limelight on Wednesday, after a block deal of 51.75 lakh shares was reported on the BSE. The shares were bought by Albulla Investments Funds from Mavi Investment Fund Ltd at Rs 56.5 a share. Mavi Investment Fund Ltd holds 2.19 per cent stake in the company. However, no further information was given. Around 89.43 lakh shares were traded during the day. The Mercator stock touched an intra-day high of Rs 62.25 and closed 9.33 per cent higher at Rs 61.50 on the BSE. - Our Bureau
Mercator Lines targets 30 mt from Mozambique coal mine
Varada Bhat
Mumbai, June 10 2009
Mercator Lines, India’s second largest private shipping company, has targeted production of 30 million tonnes (mt) of coal from its Mozambique mine once its starts production. The mine has estimated recoverable reserves of one billion tonnes.
But the date of actual production is still some time away, and sources say it is expected to kick off in 2010.
“We are still carrying out feasibility studies to develop the infrastructure needed. It will take us some time as it is a large asset and we a need lot of investments to produce 2.5 million tonnes every month,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Chairman, Mercator Lines, told Business Line.
Without offering the financial details, he reiterated that the company had enough funds for the project.
Mining sector foray
Mercator recently entered the coal mining sector by acquiring three mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique as part of its backward integration initiative.
“We were into transportation and handling of coal. So we decided to get into coal mining,” said Mr Mittal.
The company plans to produce 1.5-2 mt of coal this fiscal from its Indonesian mines which started production a year ago.
“We have started with small mines to get the experience and will, in the future, ramp up production to 10 mt,” he added.
Mercator reported income of Rs 76.90 crore from its coal mining business in 2008-09, its first year of operations.
Freight revenue
According to a shipping analyst, with the global freight market remaining dampened, these businesses will de-risk the company’s earnings from the cyclicality related to shipping freight revenues.
“This will provide revenue generation through sale of coal in domestic/international markets and its transhipment through its own ships,” he said.
Mercator posts 15% rise in net
Mumbai, May 20
Long-term contracts have helped Mercator Lines post a 14.9 per cent increase in net profit for 2008-09 despite the collapse in the dry bulk shipping market last year. Net profit for the year ending March 31, 2009 was up at Rs 376.45 crore from Rs 327.65 crore last year. Total income increased by 45.11 per cent to Rs 2,248.82 crore (Rs 1,549.72 crore), said a statement from Mercator. “Despite a weak economic environment and depressed freight rates, Mercator has delive red good results,” said Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman, in a press release. During the year, the company started its coal mining activities which generated revenue of Rs 77 crore.
– Our Bureau
Mercator to sharpen focus on dredging, coal mining
Has acquired mines in Indonesia, Mozambique.
Amit Mitra
Mumbai April 16 With the global freight market remaining dampened due to recessionary trends, Mercator Lines, India’s second largest private shipping company, has decided to sharpen focus on its other businesses — dredging and coal mining.
The company recently entered the coal mining sector by acquiring three mines in Indonesia and one in Mozambique, as part of its backward integration initiative. “We are into transportation and handling of coal. So we decided to get into coal mining,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Chairman of Mercator Lines, told Business Line.
The company plans to produce between 1.5 million tonnes (mt) and 2 mt of coal from its Indonesia mines in the current fiscal. “Over the next three to four years, we will be ramping up production to 10 mt tonnes through acquisition of more mines,” Mr Mittal said.
The Mozambique mine, where production is yet to start, is spread over an area of 180-sq.km, with estimated recoverable reserve of one billion tonnes.
To acquire more dredgers
The company also plans to enhance its focus on dredging business, seeing major opportunities in the domestic dredging market as Indian ports plan to expand capacities and new ports are in the pipeline. It plans to add two new dredgers to its fleet of four in the current quarter — at a cost of $110 million.
Within the next three years, Mercator plans to expand its dredging fleet to 10, which will include both cutter suction and trailer suction dredgers. Earlier, the company leased out the dredgers to Dredging Corporation of India (DCI), but now it operates these vessels on its own.
The company has not postponed its acquisition plans despite recessionary trends. “On the contrary, we feel this is the best time to buy assets. Lots of second-hand ships are available at much lower prices as compared to some months ago,” said Mr Mittal. .
Ships can be purchased at prices 20 to 50 per cent lower depending on the category of vessels. New ships at different shipyards were also available, as the owners could not pursue expansion plans due to tight liquidity position.
The company, which spent $310 million to acquire new assets, including a very large crude carrier, will be buying a few bulk carriers this fiscal. Financing, however, was still a problem, he said.
Sharp fall in tanker rates
While the dry bulk market is showing some signs of improvement, tanker rates fell sharply in the last three months. The average charter rate for a VLCC fell from $44,065 per day in January 2009 to $30,672 in February and $25,177 in March. On April 8, the VLCC rate was ruling at about $10,536 per day.
The Baltic Dry Index, which measures the dry bulk freight rates, increased from 1818 in February 2009 to 1958 in March. The rates are just about sufficient to meet the operating costs of shipping companies, say industry analysts.
Mercator Lines plans to acquire more oil rigs
Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman of the company, made it clear that the company had no immediate plans to acquire offshore supply vessels or multi-purpose supply vessels required by the oil sector.
Santanu Sanyal
Kolkata, May 20 Mercator Lines has before it a proposal for acquiring more oil rigs.
“We are already having one jack-up rig built at Keppel in Singapore and we’re considering more acquisitions, preferably by way of outright purchase,” Mr H.K. Mittal, Executive Chairman of the company, told Business Line.
“To have a new rig built in a yard will take at least three years, an option which perhaps can be dispensed with in favour of outright purchase of newly-built readily available in the market.”
Exploring market
As he felt, there might be no dearth of newly-built equipment for immediate acquisition but only at a price. “In-chartering of old equipment is not so much in our view, but then, we’re exploring the market and keeping our options open,” Mr Mittal observed.
He, however, made it clear that the company had no immediate plans to acquire OSVs (offshore supply vessels) or MSVs (multi-purpose supply vessels) required by the oil sector.
“Our priority is clear: we’ll go for high value large assets,” he added.
Oil sector
The growing Indian oil sector, as Mr Mittal pointed out, was holding out promise. “But that does not mean that our proposed acquisitions will be deployed only in India,” he said, adding, “whosoever, anywhere in the world, gives the best price will get our equipment”.
The jack-up rig being built in Singapore will be delivered in March 2009 and will cost $190 million and its deployment has already been firmed up for three years.
Mercator Lines, as the Chairman pointed out, was essentially a shipping firm, the second largest private sector shipping company in the country, with a diversified fleet comprising 20 vessels, including nine tankers (total tonnage 1.04 million dwt), eight bulk carriers (0.61 million dwt) and three dredgers (combined capacity 20,000 cbm).
The company’s acquisition of dredgers is a recent development and all the three dredgers have been placed with the Dredging Corporation of India for employment.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Rather Strong’ Growth in 2010-11 (Update2)
By Paul Dobson
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The global economy will expand 4.4 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent the following year as the world recovers from the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Our projections suggest that both 2010 and 2011 will be rather strong years,” a team led by Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist in London, wrote today in a report in which the bank made eight “top trade” recommendations. “The combination of better-than-expected growth and lower-than- expected inflation should be good news for financial markets.”
Among its recommendations, New York-based Goldman Sachs, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, said investors should buy the pound against the New Zealand dollar and the Polish zloty versus the yen. The bank also backed Russian equities and suggested investors should go “long” credit protection on Spain and “short” protection on Ireland.
Goldman Sachs is more bullish on the prospects for a recovery from the worst recession since World War II than Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund. Pimco expects a “new normal” investment climate that includes lower and slower economic growth, higher risk premiums, volatility and a prolonged correction phase, according to a statement yesterday.
‘Risky Assets’
Goldman Sachs’s prediction for two consecutive years of global growth at more than 4 percent, with no increase in short- term U.S. interest rates, “would appear to be rather positive for risky assets, potentially sowing the seeds for fresh asset overvaluations down the road,” the bank said. The analysts remain “nervous” about possible risks, including the possibility that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates sooner than anticipated.
The MSCI World Index of stocks climbed 28 percent this year as the global economic slump eased. Crude oil jumped 75 percent, gold advanced to a record $1,217.23 an ounce and the dollar slid against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. Treasuries dropped 1.4 percent in 2009, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes, after a resurgence in risk appetite.
Goldman Sachs said earlier today it was ending the last four of its top trades for 2009 after “potential gains” for nine of the 11 bets, including one that the pound would strengthen against the dollar. The bank said it had “significant losses” on a recommendation to buy the dollar against the yen, losing 9 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: December 2, 2009 12:54 EST
hello..GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOT CIMB STANDARD...MUCH MUCH MUCH HIGHER!!!
By Paul Dobson
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The global economy will expand 4.4 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent the following year as the world recovers from the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
“Our projections suggest that both 2010 and 2011 will be rather strong years,” a team led by Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist in London, wrote today in a report in which the bank made eight “top trade” recommendations. “The combination of better-than-expected growth and lower-than- expected inflation should be good news for financial markets.”
Among its recommendations, New York-based Goldman Sachs, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, said investors should buy the pound against the New Zealand dollar and the Polish zloty versus the yen. The bank also backed Russian equities and suggested investors should go “long” credit protection on Spain and “short” protection on Ireland.
Goldman Sachs is more bullish on the prospects for a recovery from the worst recession since World War II than Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world’s biggest bond fund. Pimco expects a “new normal” investment climate that includes lower and slower economic growth, higher risk premiums, volatility and a prolonged correction phase, according to a statement yesterday.
‘Risky Assets’
Goldman Sachs’s prediction for two consecutive years of global growth at more than 4 percent, with no increase in short- term U.S. interest rates, “would appear to be rather positive for risky assets, potentially sowing the seeds for fresh asset overvaluations down the road,” the bank said. The analysts remain “nervous” about possible risks, including the possibility that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates sooner than anticipated.
The MSCI World Index of stocks climbed 28 percent this year as the global economic slump eased. Crude oil jumped 75 percent, gold advanced to a record $1,217.23 an ounce and the dollar slid against higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone. Treasuries dropped 1.4 percent in 2009, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes, after a resurgence in risk appetite.
Goldman Sachs said earlier today it was ending the last four of its top trades for 2009 after “potential gains” for nine of the 11 bets, including one that the pound would strengthen against the dollar. The bank said it had “significant losses” on a recommendation to buy the dollar against the yen, losing 9 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net Last Updated: December 2, 2009 12:54 EST
hello..GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOT CIMB STANDARD...MUCH MUCH MUCH HIGHER!!!
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Buying on pullbacks makes sense. Our view still envisions an earnings-related rise in the S&P 500 for early 2010 into the 1200-1250 range and then a backup thereafter for a variety of reasons, so any market retreat provides an entry point, in our opinion. It is likely that Financials get hit as well as global growth risk trades such as Energy, Materials and Industrials especially if the dollar strengthens further as it takes on its safe haven role. But we would buy into Energy and Capital Goods names on such a retrenchment.
GEO Profile Alert
Analyst(s)Tobias M Levkovich+1-212-816-1623
SectorEquity Strategy
RegionNorth America
Tobias M. Levkovich Managing Director & Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Citigroup
Managing Director Tobias M. Levkovich, who joined Smith Barney in 1988, is the firm's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, where he is responsible for assessing equity market direction, sector allocation and the firm's Recommended List. He is also a member of the firm's Investment Strategy Committee. Since taking over the role of strategist, he has been accorded a runner-up slot for portfolio strategy in the 2002, 2005 and 2006 Institutional Investor All-America Research Team (II) poll, along with third-team honors in the 2004 II poll. He also has been acknowledged by Smart Money magazine as one of the 30 smartest people in investing (December 2002) and was recognized as its Best Market Seer for 2003. In November 2004's issue, he was named to the "Power 30 Thinkers" list.Prior to taking on the equity strategy role in 2001, Tobias Levkovich covered the engineering, construction and machinery industries for 13 years and was ranked first team on the 1998, 1999 and 2000 II survey for his machinery industry coverage as well as the engineering and construction industry. He was a regular member of the II team between 1991 and 2000 as a machinery, construction and engineering analyst and was recognized as the leading Capital Goods analyst by the Wall Street Journal (2000), Greenwich Associates (1998-2000) and Reuters (1998-99).Prior to joining Smith Barney, Mr. Levkovich served as an Assistant Vice President in L.F. Rothschild & Co.'s research department.Tobias Levkovich holds a B.A. in Commerce from Concordia University, Montreal, and attended Boston University's Graduate School of Management. He has spent 20 years in the investment business and is married with three children.
SAME SP500 TARGET, SAME TIMING--EARLY 2010!!!!
LOOK AT THE CREDENTIALS OF THIS CHIEF ANALYST
GEO Profile Alert
Analyst(s)Tobias M Levkovich+1-212-816-1623
SectorEquity Strategy
RegionNorth America
Tobias M. Levkovich Managing Director & Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Citigroup
Managing Director Tobias M. Levkovich, who joined Smith Barney in 1988, is the firm's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, where he is responsible for assessing equity market direction, sector allocation and the firm's Recommended List. He is also a member of the firm's Investment Strategy Committee. Since taking over the role of strategist, he has been accorded a runner-up slot for portfolio strategy in the 2002, 2005 and 2006 Institutional Investor All-America Research Team (II) poll, along with third-team honors in the 2004 II poll. He also has been acknowledged by Smart Money magazine as one of the 30 smartest people in investing (December 2002) and was recognized as its Best Market Seer for 2003. In November 2004's issue, he was named to the "Power 30 Thinkers" list.Prior to taking on the equity strategy role in 2001, Tobias Levkovich covered the engineering, construction and machinery industries for 13 years and was ranked first team on the 1998, 1999 and 2000 II survey for his machinery industry coverage as well as the engineering and construction industry. He was a regular member of the II team between 1991 and 2000 as a machinery, construction and engineering analyst and was recognized as the leading Capital Goods analyst by the Wall Street Journal (2000), Greenwich Associates (1998-2000) and Reuters (1998-99).Prior to joining Smith Barney, Mr. Levkovich served as an Assistant Vice President in L.F. Rothschild & Co.'s research department.Tobias Levkovich holds a B.A. in Commerce from Concordia University, Montreal, and attended Boston University's Graduate School of Management. He has spent 20 years in the investment business and is married with three children.
SAME SP500 TARGET, SAME TIMING--EARLY 2010!!!!
LOOK AT THE CREDENTIALS OF THIS CHIEF ANALYST
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)